UAE banks enjoy the good times
13 October 2023
MEED's November 2023 special report on the UAE also includes:
> UAE construction sector returns to form
> Hail and Ghasha galvanises UAE upstream market
> UAE closes ranks ahead of Cop28
> UAE ramps up decarbonisation of water sector
> UAE aviation returns to growth
Talk to any Gulf banking analyst and the message is unanimous: UAE banks are doing very well, and there are few clouds dampening the outlook heading into 2024.
Nearly all UAE banks have reported strong growth in operating profit on the back of higher interest rates, wider margins, good loan growth and higher fees and commissions.
“Good GDP growth and improved business confidence have also contributed to an overall sense of wellbeing,” says Karti Inamdar, senior credit analyst at CI Ratings.
Fat profits reflect the robust environment for UAE banks. The big four UAE lenders – First Abu Dhabi Bank (Fab), Emirates NBD, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and Dubai Islamic Bank, which account for more than three-quarters of system assets – reported a combined net profit of $7.4bn in the first six months of 2023, up from $4.4bn for the same period of 2022.
“Bottom line profit is growing significantly for the four largest UAE banks, and that is a reflection of operating income growth, driven both by interest and non-interest income,” says Francesca Paolino, lead analyst at Moody’s Investors Service.
“That, in turn, has resulted from greater consumer confidence as macroeconomic conditions in the UAE remain strong.”
Region-beating returns
UAE banks topped the GCC region in the second quarter of this year in terms of return on equity, at 15.9 per cent – against a GCC-wide trend of 13 per cent. Net interest margins (NIMs) in the quarter were 3.44 per cent, compared with 2.44 per cent in the year-earlier period.
“Higher interest rates have helped banks in NIM expansion, as more than 60 per cent of banking sector deposits are still low or non-interest bearing,” says Puneet Tuli, financial institutions rating analyst at S&P Global Ratings.
Meanwhile, the cost of risk is reducing thanks to the more benign economic environment and stronger non-oil activity, which has also led to higher lending growth compared with S&P’s original expectations.
According to Fitch Ratings, UAE banks have been well-positioned for higher interest rates and, since 2021, their earning assets yields have risen more than their funding costs due to a still-high share of cheap current and savings accounts (Casa), and a large percentage of floating lending on their loan books.
Higher interest rates and increased business volumes drove net interest income up 37 per cent in the first half of 2023, Moody’s Investors Service notes in relation to the four largest lenders. Again, interest income growth outweighed funding cost growth, as low-cost Casa accounts remained a big contributor to the banks’ funding.
The higher operating income reflects a combination of interest and non-interest income, supported by greater consumer confidence. Strong activity in non-oil sectors in the UAE, such as trade, tourism and real estate, is a pointer to this effect.
“A driver for UAE banks’ increased non-interest income is their foreign exchange and derivative income. They are also reporting higher fee-generating activity from both retail and investment banking,” says Paolino.
As of June 2023, non-interest income constitutes around one-third of the total operating income at the larger UAE banks. This reflects the large banks seeking to diversify their revenue streams while growing locally and internationally.
Robust fundamentals
Liquidity and capital positions are unsurprisingly robust, providing a layer of insulation should conditions for UAE lenders deteriorate.
The big four UAE banks maintained strong capital buffers with a tangible common equity ratio of 15.1 per cent in aggregate as of June 2023. Strong earnings contributed to higher core capital buffers, more than offsetting risk-weighted assets growth.
UAE lenders’ liquidity has been strong for several years now, given that deposit growth in the country is dependent on energy prices, which have been favourable.
“In the UAE, deposits are not difficult to find, especially if you are willing to pay a price, so it’s the cost of deposits that needs to be managed,” says Inamdar.
“There’s usually plenty of funding available in the financial system when oil prices are high.”
The main issue on the funding side is high customer concentration levels – a side-effect of the UAE’s large number of high-net-worth individuals and wealthy institutions.
Asset quality has nonetheless improved in the UAE. New non-performing loan (NPL) classifications have declined and loan recoveries have been good, partly due to the improvement in the real estate sector, says Inamdar.
According to Moody’s, the overall NPL ratio declined to about 5 per cent as of the first half of 2023, from 5.4 per cent a year earlier, reflecting the recovering operating environment in the country. Yet this ratio is still one of the highest in the GCC.
“On the one side, you can expect some solid operating conditions to provide some improvements to NPL ratios,” says Paolino.
“But on the other side, UAE banks remain exposed to the real estate sector and also to single borrower concentrations, as well as to large loan restructurings.”
While continued high interest could stoke future asset quality problems, local banks have built up provisions with a coverage ratio in excess of 100 per cent.
Technological dividends
Looking ahead, UAE banks will focus on their digital proposition, meaning investment in innovation and technology will likely continue and operating costs remain high.
Banks in the UAE are already benefitting from years of significant investment in technology.
“We have seen a reduction of banks' physical footprint, with one of the banks reducing its network from 50 branches to just five without any significant impact on activity,” says Tuli.
“Banks did not experience any major cyber risk issues as well. All this is helping their overall profitability.”
In terms of future growth, some cross-border forays can be expected.
For example, Fab and Emirates NBD have strong regional ambitions that could help grow their individual balance sheets. Their diversified business base – in terms of geography, products and customer segments – renders them less vulnerable to a downturn in any of the markets they operate in.
There are few downside risks facing UAE banks, barring an unexpected drop in oil prices or – notes S&P’s Tuli – a significantly higher-than-expected migration of deposits from non-interest-bearing instruments to remunerated instruments that will reduce the benefits of higher interest rates.
That should leave analysts continuing to tell a positive story about the country’s banking prospects.
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Operational resilience is now the Gulf’s real energy test
7 April 2026
For the past few weeks, the Gulf energy story has been told mostly through the lens of damage. That is understandable. We have seen attacks on industrial sites, ports and tankers, while the Strait of Hormuz remains the key constraint on exports and recovery. Around a fifth of global oil normally passes through the strait, and the latest attacks have again underlined how exposed regional and global markets remain to disruption in that corridor.
But the more useful question now is not simply what has been hit. It is what still works, what can be rerouted, and how fast operators can adjust.
Impact scale
The current estimate is that the physical impact of this conflict now likely exceeds the energy industry impairments sustained during the 1990-91 Gulf War, including both physical damage and business interruption. This is a serious shock, and it will feed through into global inflation, insurance pricing, financing costs and downstream supply chains.
This is why the story extends beyond oil and gas. Metals, aluminium and petrochemicals are part of the same resilience test. In energy-intensive industries, even a short interruption to power or logistics can create outsized losses. Aluminium is a clear example. Once power is curtailed for too long, the restart problem becomes expensive very quickly.
But that does not mean the Gulf’s energy system has been structurally broken. A great deal of productive capacity, logistics infrastructure and operational capability remains in place. The real question is not whether the region can function at all, but how far operators can adapt, reroute and preserve output while the disruption continues.
The physical impact of this conflict now likely exceeds the energy industry impairments sustained during the 1990-91 Gulf War
What gives me some confidence is that the region is not standing still. Good operators are doing what good operators tend to do under pressure. They are changing production plans, prioritising domestic demand where needed, rerouting logistics and shifting product slates. In petrochemicals, some producers can move from liquid output to solid output, which is easier to truck overland and export through alternative routes. In plain terms, they are trying to keep molecules moving.
Others are bringing planned maintenance forward. If an asset cannot export efficiently today, using this period for a turnaround can preserve future production once routes reopen. That does not remove the loss, but it can turn part of it into a timing effect rather than a permanent one.
Risk management
Insurance is part of that resilience equation, too. Cover is never uniform across the market, because it reflects each operator’s risk appetite. Some businesses are well protected, while others have chosen to retain more risk. In these situations, more proactive risk management actions may be preferred, such as moving inventory, reducing throughput and process operating severity [intensity] to add resiliency to energy infrastructure in case of damage.
Prior investment in resilience is also showing its value more broadly. That includes pipeline networks, flexible logistics, broader product portfolios, experienced operating teams and, in some cases, stronger risk transfer strategies. The businesses under the most pressure are those still heavily reliant on moving bulk liquids through constrained maritime channels and with fewer options when disruption hits. Those with more routes, products and risk flexibility are coping better.
None of this should be mistaken for complacency. Recovery will take time. Even when conditions improve, shipping patterns will not normalise overnight. The losses are real, and the fallout will be global. But this is no longer only a damage story. It is a test of operational resilience, and so far the region is showing it has more of that than many assume.
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Adnoc Gas to rally UAE downstream project spending
7 April 2026
Despite the impact of recent Iranian attacks on its assets, the gas processing business of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Gas) is on course to emerge as the largest spending entity in the UAE’s downstream oil and gas sector this year.
Adnoc Group created Adnoc Gas, which began operating as a commercial entity in 2023, through the merger of its former subsidiaries Adnoc Gas Processing and Adnoc LNG. The consolidation of Adnoc’s gas processing and liquefied natural gas (LNG) operations formed one of the world’s largest gas processing entities, with a capacity of about 10 billion standard cubic feet a day (cf/d) across eight onshore and offshore sites, including Asab, Bab, Bu Hasa, Habshan and Ruwais.
The scale of its infrastructure – particularly its 3,250-kilometre pipeline network, which is being expanded under the $3bn Estidama project – positions Adnoc Gas as a critical enabler of both domestic industrial growth and export competitiveness.
Resilience amid geopolitical risk
The recent drone-related disruptions highlight the growing exposure of Gulf energy infrastructure to regional conflict. However, the limited operational impact reported by Adnoc Gas suggests a high degree of system redundancy and resilience, supported by networked infrastructure and diversified processing capacity.
This resilience is crucial as the company pushes ahead with its $20bn-$28bn capital programme for 2023-29. Continued investment despite security risks signals confidence in both project economics and the UAE’s ability to safeguard critical assets.
Rich Gas Development
At the core of Adnoc Gas’ expansion strategy is the Rich Gas Development (RGD) programme, which aims to increase processing capacity by 30% by 2030.
The RGD project will enable the development of new gas reservoirs, helping to boost gas liquids exports, support UAE gas self-sufficiency and provide feedstock to the country’s growing petrochemicals sector, Adnoc Gas says.
The first phase of the RGD project is under construction. Adnoc Gas awarded $5bn-worth of engineering, procurement and construction management (EPCm) contracts in three tranches for phase one last June – its largest-ever capital investment.
The contracts cover the expansion of key gas processing plants to increase throughput and improve operational efficiency across four facilities: Asab, Bu Hasa, Habshan (onshore) and the Das Island liquefaction facility (offshore).
The first tranche, valued at $2.8bn, was awarded to UK-headquartered Wood for the Habshan facility. The company said the contract value includes pass-through revenue and that it expects to recognise about $400m in EPCm revenue.
Wood’s scope includes upgrades and debottlenecking of the Habshan and Habshan 5 gas processing complexes and pipelines, including brownfield modifications and the installation of new facilities.
The remaining two tranches – $1.2bn for the Das Island liquefaction facility and $1.1bn for the Asab and Bu Hasa facilities – were awarded to UAE-based Petrofac and Dubai-based Kent, respectively.
Petrofac, separately, said it will provide EPCm services and oversee procurement and construction contracts for a new inlet facility; two gas dehydration and compression trains, each with a capacity of 420 million cf/d; and associated infrastructure at Das Island. The company will also upgrade existing facilities to increase capacity for collecting and transporting raw gas.
RGD growth phases
Adnoc Gas’ capital expenditure commitment of $20bn for the 2023-29 period is expected to rise to about $28bn as it targets final investment decisions (FIDs) on the second and third phases of the RGD programme in the first quarter of 2026.
These phases involve building a natural gas liquids (NGL) fractionation train at the Ruwais facility and a new gas processing train at Habshan. Adnoc Gas has selected main contractors for EPC works on both projects, although official contract awards are pending.
Italy’s Tecnimont has been selected for the Ruwais NGL Train 5 project, which will have a capacity of 22,000 tonnes a day, or about 8 million tonnes a year.
China-based Wison Engineering has been selected for the Habshan 7 gas processing train. The Habshan complex is one of the largest in the UAE and the wider Middle East and North Africa region, with a capacity of 6.1 billion cf/d across five trains and 14 processing units.
With Adnoc Group advancing its P5 programme to raise oil production capacity to 5 million barrels a day by 2027, higher volumes of associated gas are set to enter the grid. The new train at Habshan, scheduled for commissioning in 2029, will help process these additional volumes.
Bab Gas Cap development
As part of its upstream expansion plans, Adnoc Group is working to extract gas from four underdeveloped gas cap reservoirs at the Bab onshore field: Thammama A, B, F and H. The Thammama A, B and H reservoirs are expected to produce a combined 1.45 billion cf/d, while Thammama F is projected to produce 396 million cf/d.
Existing processing capacity at Habshan will be insufficient to handle these volumes. As a result, Adnoc Gas plans to build new facilities to process up to 1.85 billion cf/d of additional gas.
The company is planning a new gas processing plant in the Bab area, about 170 kilometres from Abu Dhabi, along with associated pipelines and supporting infrastructure, as part of the broader Bab gas cap development project.
Adnoc Gas has divided the EPC scope into four packages. It completed contractor prequalification in February and is expected to issue main EPC tenders in the second quarter.
The company’s capital expenditure commitment could exceed $30bn once it reaches FID on the Bab gas cap development, which is expected later this year.
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Israel ramps up gas exports to Egypt
7 April 2026
Israel’s gas flows to Egypt have returned to pre-war levels after restarting on 4 April, helping to ease the ongoing gas shortage in the North African country.
Around 1.1 billion cubic feet a day is being transported by pipeline from Israel’s Leviathan and Tamar gas fields, according to a Bloomberg report.
This is the same level that was being transported prior to Israel shutting down production from its offshore gas fields due to security concerns, and halting flows to Egypt on 28 February.
Despite having its own gas reserves, Egypt is a net importer of natural gas and has been impacted by the surge in global prices since the US and Israel started their war with Iran.
Last month, Egypt increased the prices of several petroleum products and natural gas for vehicles due to higher global energy prices.
On 9 March, Egypt raised the price of natural gas for vehicles by 30% to E£13 ($0.25) a cubic metre.
Egypt’s Petroleum & Mineral Resources Ministry said the increase was introduced due to “exceptional circumstances” resulting from geopolitical developments in the Middle East and their direct impact on global energy markets.
It said that the regional conflict had led to a significant increase in import and domestic production costs.
Egypt, the Middle East and North Africa region’s biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer, is facing uncertainty over its LNG supplies in the coming months.
Between March 2025 and February 2026, Egypt imported 9,440 kilotonnes of LNG, with the majority purchased under short-term agreements, mainly with third parties such as trading houses.
Last year, it was reported that Egypt had signed deals for around 150 cargoes through to the summer of 2026.
READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDFEconomic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.
Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
> AGENDA: Gulf economies under fire> GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift> MARKET FOCUS: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift> QATAR LNG: Qatar’s new $8bn investment heats up global LNG race> LEADERSHIP: Shaping the future of passenger rail in the Middle EastTo see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click herehttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16280784/main.jpg -
Egypt gas sector activity surges amid regional conflict
7 April 2026
There is a surge of activity in Egypt’s gas sector as investors pour money into boosting domestic production and the country makes deals to leverage its existing liquefied natural gas (LNG) export infrastructure.
The increase in activity has come as the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to prevent the shipment of around 20% of the world’s LNG supplies to consumer nations.
While Egypt remains a net importer of natural gas, its geographical position, significant gas reserves and existing infrastructure, including two LNG export terminals, mean it can potentially capitalise on the current supply crunch.
Harmattan development
On 6 April, Arcius announced the final investment decision (FID) to develop the Harmattan gas field offshore Egypt.
Arcius is a joint venture between UK-based BP and the UAE’s Adnoc, focused on developing gas assets in Egypt and the wider Eastern Mediterranean.
The company acquired the El-Burg offshore concession area, which includes the Harmattan field, in February.
An engineering, procurement, installation and commissioning (EPIC) contract for the project has been awarded to Egypt’s Enppi, while Cairo-based Petrojet and Petroleum Marine Services (PMS) have been awarded work as subcontractors.
In a statement, Naser Al-Yafei, the chief executive of Arcius, said: “The FID to develop the Harmattan field marks an important milestone in advancing one of our first projects in Egypt toward production.”
Idku LNG
UK-based Shell also held a meeting with Egypt’s Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi recently, with talks focusing on increasing domestic natural gas production and utilising the Idku LNG export terminal.
The terminal has a nameplate capacity of 7.2 million tonnes a year, but is not currently operated at full capacity.
The Idku facility is owned by a consortium of companies, with Shell and Malaysia’s Petronas holding the biggest stakes.
Gas corridor
On 30 March, Egypt signed a natural gas cooperation agreement with Cyprus, laying the groundwork for a regional gas corridor that will allow Nicosia to transport its gas to Egypt to use its export infrastructure.
The signing ceremony took place on the sidelines of a conference in Cairo, where both parties agreed to cooperate on the development and exploitation of gas resources.
The text of the agreement focused on technical and commercial aspects of the deal, establishing a basis for future negotiations.
Under the agreed terms, Cyprus’ gas will be processed in Egypt’s liquefaction facilities before being shipped to export markets.
The agreement built on a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed in February last year, in which Egypt agreed to buy gas from Cyprus’ Aphrodite field.
Block 6
It is also expected that Italy’s Eni, which operates Cyprus’ Block 6 concession with France’s TotalEnergies, will announce FID for the development of the Kronos field in the coming weeks.
The field has reserves of 3.1 trillion cubic feet and, under current plans, the field’s gas will be transported to Egypt via pipeline before being exported from Egypt’s Damietta LNG terminal.
Future investment
As a net importer of natural gas, Egypt faces short-term economic problems due to the current high-price environment, forcing the country to pay more for energy imports.
While this is a major setback for the country and is likely to erode its foreign currency reserves over the coming months, the current global shortage of natural gas could lead to increased investment in the country’s oil and gas sector.
This could accelerate existing project plans within the sector as well as the development of new projects.
READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDFEconomic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.
Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
> AGENDA: Gulf economies under fire> GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift> MARKET FOCUS: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift> QATAR LNG: Qatar’s new $8bn investment heats up global LNG race> LEADERSHIP: Shaping the future of passenger rail in the Middle EastTo see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click herehttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16280782/main.jpg -
Adnoc Gas and Borouge facilities suffer Iranian attacks
6 April 2026
Debris from Iranian drones intercepted by the UAE’s air defence systems has caused damage at the Habshan gas processing facility operated by Adnoc Gas in Abu Dhabi, killing one person on site, as well as at the petrochemicals complex operated by Borouge.
In a disclosure to the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) on 5 April, Adnoc Gas, a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Group), said debris resulting from a successful interception by UAE air defences in the area caused damage to a limited number of facilities within the Habshan gas complex on 3 April.
The incident resulted in the death of an engineer working at the facility for Egyptian contractor Petrojet during evacuation. Four other contractors sustained minor injuries and were discharged from hospital after receiving treatment.
Specialised teams were immediately dispatched to isolate the affected area and begin a comprehensive assessment of the damage to the production line, which is ongoing, Adnoc Gas said.
“We are profoundly saddened by the loss of life and extend our deepest condolences to the family and loved ones of the deceased. Our thoughts are also with the injured colleagues, and we wish them a full and speedy recovery. The safety, security and wellbeing of our people remains our highest priority,” Fatema Al-Nuaimi, CEO of Adnoc Gas, said in the filing.
“We remain committed to delivering shareholder value. Our balance-sheet strength and capital discipline support the resilience of the company,” she added.
Adnoc Gas further said it is meeting domestic demand in the UAE through other facilities, with no impact on customer supply. “The company continues to actively collaborate with international customers and partners where needed,” it said in its disclosure.
The Habshan gas processing facility has been attacked at least twice in March during Iran’s ongoing war with Israel and the US.
Borouge incident
Authorities in Abu Dhabi reported fire damage at Borouge’s main petrochemical facility caused by fragments from a drone interception falling on the complex on 5 April. No injuries were reported, the Abu Dhabi Media Office said.
“Production activity in affected areas has been suspended following the incident whilst damage assessment and repairs are carried out,” the company said in a filing with ADX on 6 April.
The company also highlighted market conditions. “A global shortage of polyolefins is driving a strong recovery in prices in March, which has continued in April,” it said.
Borouge said it remains financially positioned to manage near-term impact. “Borouge retains significant financial resilience to navigate short-term operational disruption due to its strong cash generation and significant available liquidity.”
Borouge pointed to strong operating performance heading into the disruption. “In the first quarter of 2026, Borouge achieved high utilisation rates and was able to sell a significant proportion of its production during the month of March via alternative routes,” the statement said.
ALSO READ: Sultan Al-Jaber calls Strait of Hormuz blockade “economic terrorism”
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