meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE banks dig in for new era

11 April 2025

 

Gulf decision makers, like their counterparts elsewhere in the world, are gauging the potential impact of the world’s new tariff regime.

Amid the global economic turmoil emanating from Washington DC, UAE banks have reason to be confident about their prospects of withstanding the negative effects, after a strong 2024 that saw double-digit credit growth and solid profits across the board.

Full-year loan growth stood at 11% in 2024, notes ratings agency Fitch Ratings, while UAE banks’ profits reached a record-high level, with a 19.1% return on average equity.

Surprising success

Loan growth surprised on the upside, reflecting stronger activity from government-related entities (GREs), which has provided good business for Emirati banks. For example, majority government-owned Emirates NBD had almost one-quarter of its loan book exposed to the Dubai government and its GREs. 

The broader outlook is positive for UAE banks in 2025. Amid healthy operating conditions and robust liquidity, lending growth should remain close to double figures this year.

The combined net income of Fitch-rated banks was AED80bn ($19.8bn) in 2024, up from AED76bn ($18.8bn) in 2023. This rise was driven by a 10% expansion of the banks’ pre-impairment operating profit, contained loan impairment charges – due to the favourable operating environment – and strong coverage of already crystallised problem loans at most banks, said Fitch Ratings.

The UAE’s largest bank, First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), reported a 13% year-on-year increase in pre-tax profits to AED19bn ($4.7bn), supported by revenue growth of 15%. 

“UAE banks are at the top of the cycle,” says Anton Lopatin, UAE bank analyst at Fitch Ratings. “At Fitch, we’ve upgraded a lot of standalone ratings for banks in the last 24 months. Together with other factors that reflected that in the last two years we have seen some the highest profits ever in the UAE, because of the strong liquidity and the healthy economic environment.”

Although profitability is expected to decrease marginally in 2025, UAE banks will continue to benefit from solid internal capital generation and high shareholder support, according to S&P Global, another ratings agency.

Taxes, rates and regulations

UAE banks, like other companies active in the country, have also had to cope with the introduction of corporate tax, imposed in mid-2003 at an average 9% rate. Even so, UAE banks realised a high return on equity in 2024, despite it being the first full year in which banks paid corporate tax. 

UAE banks have benefited from the higher-for-longer interest rates, an avenue of earnings that is gradually closing off in light of the US Federal Reserve’s protracted series of rate cuts. Nonetheless, analysts see the impact remaining supportive through 2025.

“The market consensus is that in 2025, there will be a maximum of two cuts in interest rates. That would mean banks would likely report another return on average equity close to 20% again, in line with what we saw last year,” says Lopatin.

Another source of support is the new credit risk management standards introduced by the UAE Central Bank in November, which are likely to strengthen banks’ long-term creditworthiness.

“From a ratings agency perspective, this is positive, as … target banks have to become more prudent in terms of how they classify loans, and how they book provisions against new impairment cases. This means they should be more conservative than they used to be,” says Lopatin.

The standards are aimed at improving the transparency of the banks’ asset quality and ensure stronger provision coverage for problem loans. Consequently, capital and profitability metrics should face less pressure in times of stress, notes Fitch.

“The Central Bank of the UAE targets the sector average impaired loan ratio to be less than 5% in the long-term. The current average is 4%, but we are in the positive part of the cycle,” says Lopatin.

Some banks may report higher Stage 2 or Stage 3 loans ratios due to the new standards, but Fitch maintains its forecast sector-average impaired loans ratio at 4% for 2025 because the impact on most large and medium-sized banks is likely to be limited, and robust growth should continue to dilute increases in Stage 3 loan ratios.

Pressure has been exerted on banks to offload some of their bad loans, most notably in Abu Dhabi.

The process got rolling in 2023, when Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) offloaded a $1.1bn loan portfolio to US investment fund Davidson Kempner, as part of a move to rid its balance sheet of corporate defaults. The lender is now looking to package off more non-performing loans by the end of 2025 and is reported to be in the early stages of studying such a deal.

In January, FAB also announced its intention to offload some impaired loans and is reportedly looking to sell its portfolio of non-performing loans worth about $800m to Deutsche Bank. This process mirrors what is happening in Saudi Arabia, where the authorities want banks to securitise some of the impaired loans.

Opportunities abroad

While the domestic economic upturn and the servicing of GREs’ credit needs will underpin future Emirati bank growth, lenders also continue to look out for new opportunities beyond the GCC home market.

Turkiye is one of the more promising prospects for UAE banks to grow their footprints. Although an attempt last year by FAB to acquire a stake in the country’s fourth-largest private bank, Yapi Kredi, did not go through, in January Dubai Islamic Bank announced an increase in its shareholding in Turkish financial services provider TOM Group from 20% to 25%.

Meanwhile, Emirates NBD and FAB acted as coordinators and bookrunners on a $1.2bn loan for Turkiye Wealth Fund in March of this year. The sovereign fund raised a two-year syndicated loan from 20 banks.

Overseas expansion, mixed with continued domestic credit growth opportunities, should help UAE lenders maintain their recent performances – whatever global headwinds result from US President Donald Trump’s new era of trade barriers.

MEED’s May 2025 report on the UAE includes:

> GOVERNMENT & ECONOMY: UAE looks to economic longevity
> BANKING: UAE banks dig in for new era
> UPSTREAM: Adnoc in cruise control with oil and gas targets
> DOWNSTREAM: Abu Dhabi chemicals sector sees relentless growth
> POWER: AI accelerates UAE power generation projects sector
> CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction continues to lead region
> TRANSPORT: UAE accelerates its $60bn transport push
 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13640614/main.jpg
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Oman begins procurement for truck road PPP

    2 July 2026

     

    Oman’s Ministry of Transport, Communications & Information Technology (MTCIT) has tendered a contract for the sultanate’s second public-private partnership (PPP) road scheme.

    The project spans 66 kilometres between Al-Buraimi and Al-Dhahirah governorates, starting at the Al-Khatm border crossing in Mahdah and ending at the Al-Fath area in Dhank.

    Under the scheme, the winning bidder will design, build, finance and transfer the project, which is specially designed for heavy vehicles.

    MTCIT issued the tender on 30 June. The deadline to purchase tender documents is 11 August, and the clarification period will run from 11 to 18 August.

    The bid submission deadline is 30 January 2027.

    In August 2023, Oman shortlisted five of the eight prequalified teams to compete for the Salalah-Thumrait truck road (STTR) project, the sultanate’s first PPP road project.

    The project failed to materialise beyond that point.

    In January, MEED reported that Oman is planning to establish a new commercial railway line to transport essential supplies between Salalah and Thumrait – an initiative understood to have preceded the STTR project. The railway is planned to be implemented as a PPP.

    The scheme comprises the construction of a railway line approximately 150-170km long. Two main stations are planned: Salalah Station, near the port and food storage facilities, and Thumrait Station, which will serve as a distribution hub for the surrounding areas.

    Trains are expected to be equipped with refrigerated and dry containers. The scheme aims to reduce transport costs between the two areas by 20%-30%, and Oman plans to pitch the project to major food companies to secure long-term transport contracts.

    The proposed project timeline is:

    • 2025: Conduct economic, technical and environmental feasibility studies
    • 2026: Launch the project for investment on a PPP basis
    • 2027-30: Construction of the railway line
    • 2031: Trial operations
    • 2032: Full commercial operations

    The project is touted as a key initiative under Oman Vision 2040, which aims to transform the sultanate into a global logistics hub.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17525698/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Acwa signs Mauritania gas IPP agreements

    2 July 2026

    Saudi Arabia’s Acwa has announced it has signed the public-private partnership (PPP) and power-purchase agreements for the 230MW N’diago combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plant in Nouakchott, Mauritania.

    The agreements cover the development, financing, construction and operation of the project. They were signed in Nouakchott in the presence of senior officials from the Mauritanian government and Acwa chairman Mohammad Abunayyan.

    The project is Mauritania’s first large-scale gas-fired independent power project (IPP). It is also expected to be the country’s first major gas-fired power plant procured through a PPP structure.

    The CCGT plant will provide 230MW of baseload generation capacity. It will use Mauritania’s domestic natural gas resources to supply the national grid.

    Separately, Mauritanian Electricity Company (Somelec) has been advancing procurement for the construction of a 50MW solar power and battery energy storage system IPP project. It issued an expression of interest request in May.  

    Mauritania currently has several wind and solar power projects in the early study stages, according to regional project tracker MEED Projects.

    There are also plans to build a 1,200MW wind power plant near Port Etienne in the Bay Province of Nouadhibou, for which China Energy Engineering was appointed as the main contractor in 2024. 

    Meanwhile, Acwa’s portfolio comprises 111 assets that are operational, under construction or in advanced development. These represent investments of SR468.9bn ($125bn).

    According to the company, it has a power generation capacity of 98GW, including 52.3GW of renewable energy, and manages 9.7 million cubic metres a day of desalinated water globally.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17525605/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Saudi water sector awaits next catalyst

    2 July 2026

    Commentary
    Mark Dowdall
    Power & water editor

    Saudi Arabia’s water sector is entering a critical period as developers and investors wait for the next signal that the kingdom’s project pipeline is moving forward.

    Seven months have passed since preferred bidders were announced for the Arana and Hadda independent sewage treatment plant (ISTP) projects, which together will provide 350,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d) of treatment capacity. The projects had been expected to reach financial close in the second quarter of this year, but have yet to do so.

    In parallel, Saudi Arabia’s Vision Invest was selected as preferred bidder last December for the estimated $2bn Riyadh-Qassim independent water transmission pipeline (IWTP) project. It was reported at the time that the company had submitted a levelised tariff of SR2.627 ($0.70) a cubic metre, almost 20% below the next nearest bid. The project, which will comprise an 859-kilometre pipeline with transmission capacity of 685,000 cm/d, had been tipped to reach financial close this quarter.

    The uncertainty extends beyond projects awaiting financial close. The developer tender bid deadline was recently pushed back again for the $150m Riyadh East ISTP. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Water Transmission Company (WTCO) is understood to be reviewing the delivery model for the Jubail-Buraidah and Ras Mohaisen-Baha-Mecca independent water transmission system (IWTS) projects.

    According to sources familiar with the plans, WTCO is considering establishing a special purpose vehicle that would take equity stakes in both schemes. This could further delay procurement for a project that has already seen multiple deadline extensions. Sharakat’s next wave of independent water projects (IWPs) is also in the pipeline. The first of these is not expected to be tendered until early 2027.

    According to regional project tracker MEED Projects, Saudi Arabia’s water infrastructure sector recorded $3.14bn-worth of awards in the first half of this year, substantially lower than the $7.58bn recorded during the same period in 2025.

    While activity has slowed, the longer-term outlook remains unchanged. Population growth and industrial expansion continue to drive demand for desalination, wastewater treatment and water transmission infrastructure. In the meantime, key stakeholders are looking for the next clear signal that the project pipeline is regaining momentum.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17510220/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Contractor wins Jeddah road expansion deal in Riyadh

    2 July 2026

     

    The Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) has awarded a contract for the Jeddah Road Development Project in Riyadh.

    Local construction firm Saudi Pan Kingdom (Sapac) won the contract.

    Spanning 29 kilometres, the scheme includes 14 bridges and five lanes.

    Designed to handle up to 353,000 vehicles a day, the road is expected to be completed by 2028, with mobilisation works already under way.

    The project forms part of the third package of the RCRC’s Riyadh Main and Ring Road Axes Development Programme, which was announced in January.

    The other schemes include:

    > Taif Road Development Project: The project stretches 15km and includes four bridges, each with four lanes. It also features two tunnels. It will have a capacity of up to 200,000 vehicles a day and will enhance connectivity between Riyadh’s southern and western districts and the city centre.

    > Thumamah Road Development Project: The eastern section of the project will span 8km and include three bridges and three tunnels, linking the northern and eastern parts of Riyadh. The project will have a daily capacity of up to 200,000 vehicles.

    > King Abdulaziz Road Development Project: The northern section of the project stretches 4.7km and will include four bridges, four lanes and one tunnel, with a capacity of up to 450,000 vehicles per day.

    > Othman Bin Affan Road Development Project: The northern section will span 4.3km and include seven bridges and other related upgrades to enhance traffic flow across northern Riyadh. The project will have a daily capacity of up to 500,000 vehicles.

    > Second phase of engineering enhancements for congested areas: This project targets eight locations across the city’s road network, where advanced engineering solutions will be applied to reduce congestion and improve intersection performance, increasing traffic capacity by 40% to 60%.

    The contract for the Jeddah Road Development Project is the latest of several high-profile deals awarded by the RCRC recently. In May, it awarded an estimated SR5bn ($1.3bn) contract to construct the Sheikh Jaber Al-Sabah Road project in Riyadh.

    That contract went to a joint venture of Riyadh-based Al-Rashid Trading & Contracting Company (RTCC) and Turkiye’s IC Ictas.

    Stretching 12km, the project runs from Khurais Road to Al-Thumama Road and is a key component of the Second Eastern Ring Road scheme.

    Works include five interchanges: Prince Bandar, King Abdullah, Imam Abdullah, Dammam Road and Al-Thumama.

    In 2021, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud said the population of Riyadh would double to 15-20 million people by 2030. 

    He directed government entities to work closely with the RCRC to prepare the city’s development strategy.

    The RCRC’s major projects include Riyadh Metro, Riyadh Art, Sports Boulevard, King Salman International Park, Green Riyadh and several road development projects in the capital.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17523376/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Dubai announces First Al-Khail road development project

    2 July 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dubai’s Executive Council has announced the First Al-Khail Street Development project, which will run parallel to Sheikh Zayed Road.

    The scheme comprises a 15-kilometre elevated carriageway with three lanes in each direction.

    According to a Dubai Media Office statement, “The project will provide access to areas including Al-Barsha, Al-Quoz, Business Bay and Meydan.”

    “It is expected to serve more than 2.6 million people and reduce travel time on Sheikh Zayed Road by 51% during peak hours,” the statement added.

    Designed to accommodate more than 9,000 vehicles an hour, construction is expected to begin in the third quarter of 2027, with completion targeted for 2030.

    The development forms part of a wider AED18bn ($5bn) programme covering initiatives related to culture, trade, infrastructure, Emiratisation, finance, investment, urban planning and the city’s population census.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17523587/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal