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  Thermal plants resurgence creates crossroads

  25 April 2025

  Commentary
  Jennifer Aguinaldo
  Energy & technology editor

  The GCC states awarded some $27bn-worth of gas-fired power plant contracts in 2024, up 127% from the previous year's figure, and nearly 300-fold the value of similar contracts awarded in 2019, which sat at a record low of $93m.

  And, while the values of awarded thermal plant and renewable energy plant contracts achieved parity in 2023, clients awarded thermal power plant contracts with a total value that was 172% higher than all awarded renewable contracts put together last year.

  This trend establishes the return of gas as a feedstock for power generation plants across the GCC states, following years where only a handful of deals came through as a result of offtakers and utilities expanding their scope for renewable energy in line with their energy diversification plans.

  The energy transition focus and the muted electricity demand growth throughout Covid-19 and shortly after the pandemic has meant that the comeback of thermal power plants has been fraught with challenges.

  There is a squeeze on top original equipment manufacturers' capacity, with the top suppliers having clipped their capacity expansion plans in line with the anticipation that demand will fall, rather than rise, as the implementation of energy transition programmes took hold.

  The sheer volume of new combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) projects in the GCC and nearly everywhere else has also put pressure on engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractors, which are now becoming more selective about which projects to bid on to manage project delivery risks. 

  This has led or is leading to a higher levelised cost of electricity (LCOE), as a diminished number of utility developers and investors that are still interested in bidding for thermal plant projects seek to protect their profit margins from elevated market risks. 

  This, in turn, collides with most offtakers' and utilities' mandates to achieve "least-cost" energy transition.

  It is also unclear if the demand spike in CCGT, as well as the so-called peaker – or open-cycle gas turbine – plants, is short-lived, as a means to address the intermittency of renewables or replace liquid fuel-fired fleets, as in the case of Saudi Arabia. Or if it is long-lasting, as a permanent solution to achieving security of supply that will have to co-exist with the emerging battery energy storage systems (bess) technology.

  Based on MEED Projects data, the existing project pipeline for thermal power plants in the GCC remains robust, with about $10bn under bid, $9.4bn in prequalification, and over $22bn under study and design.

  However, this pipeline is significantly smaller compared to over $90bn of planned and unawarded renewable projects.

  The continued deployment of renewables with or without bess, and the need to interconnect grids, will dictate to a large extent the pace at which offtakers and utilities in the region continue procuring thermal power plants.

  It requires everyone in the supply chain to adopt an adroit and flexible strategy that will enable them to meet their net-zero targets while keeping their shareholders happy.

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  Jennifer Aguinaldo
• 
  Siemens Energy starts construction on Iraq plant

  25 April 2025

  Iraq and Germany’s Siemens Energy have broken ground on a project to build a new combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plant in Nasiriyah in Iraq’s southern Dhi Qar governorate.   

  The project is part of a $1.68bn development package that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani recently launched.

  In addition to the CCGT plant, the other projects include the Nasiriyah Integrated Medical City, a 700-bed hospital complex and infrastructure works in the Suq Al-Shuyukh district.

  The Nasiriyah CCGT plant is understood to be “hydrogen-ready”.

  This development follows the Council of Ministers’ approval in August last year of a project to rehabilitate the Baiji 2 gas-fired power station, which Siemens Energy and Beijing-based China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) will undertake.

  CSCEC will be responsible for financing the Baiji 2 project, supplying and installing auxiliary equipment such as the fuel system, fire suppression systems, compressors, pipelines and valves, and the civil works. 

  For finance, the contractor will explore securing export credit support from China.

  Photo credit: Siemens Energy, for illustrative purposes only

  https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13754307/main.jpg

  Jennifer Aguinaldo
• 
  April 2025: Data drives regional projects

  25 April 2025

  Click here to download the PDF

  Includes: Commodity tracker | Construction risk | Brent Spot Price | Construction output

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  MEED’s May 2025 report on the UAE includes:

  > COMMENT: UAE is poised to weather the storm
  > GOVERNMENT & ECONOMY: UAE looks to economic longevity
  > BANKING: UAE banks dig in for new era
  > UPSTREAM: Adnoc in cruise control with oil and gas targets
  > DOWNSTREAM: Abu Dhabi chemicals sector sees relentless growth
  > POWER: AI accelerates UAE power generation projects sector
  > CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction continues to lead region
  > TRANSPORT: UAE accelerates its $60bn transport push
  > DATABANK: UAE growth prospects head north

  To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

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  MEED Editorial
• 
  UAE growth prospects head north

  25 April 2025

  Download the PDF

  

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  MEED’s May 2025 report on the UAE includes:

  > COMMENT: UAE is poised to weather the storm
  > GOVERNMENT & ECONOMY: UAE looks to economic longevity
  > BANKING: UAE banks dig in for new era
  > UPSTREAM: Adnoc in cruise control with oil and gas targets
  > DOWNSTREAM: Abu Dhabi chemicals sector sees relentless growth
  > POWER: AI accelerates UAE power generation projects sector
  > CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction continues to lead region
  > TRANSPORT: UAE accelerates its $60bn transport push

  https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13754369/main.gif

  MEED Editorial
• 
  UAE is poised to weather the storm

  25 April 2025

  Commentary
  John Bambridge
  Analysis editor

  Despite the rising turmoil in global markets due to US-imposed tariffs, the UAE is well positioned to cope thanks to a combination of strong fiscal and macroeconomic fundamentals and government-supported project spending.

  Abu Dhabi is set to comfortably achieve a fiscal surplus for the fifth year running in 2025, even with the recent dip in global oil prices, which has still brought prices nowhere near the $50-a-barrel fiscal breakeven point that according to the IMF would tip the UAE into the red. Also working in the government’s favour is the expected increase in the country’s oil production output due to the phasing out of some of its voluntary production cuts this year. 

  Beyond oil, the UAE’s greater degree of non-oil diversification relative to other oil-exporting markets in the Gulf and wider region provide it with a more stable revenue base, while the country’s financial institutions remain on a strong growth heading – thanks to their burgeoning project finance loan books.

  The market confidence is also reflected in the growth of residential property sales in Dubai by 30% in 2024 – with housing being one of the main contributions to the albeit restrained 2% consumer price inflation in the country at large. 

  Economic strength

  The UAE also retains its role as an economic beacon for the Middle East and beyond. Dubai real estate purchases by Chinese and Russian buyers saw double-digit growth in 2024 and could account for more than 30% of sales in 2025.

  The UAE economy is being staunchly supported by both public and private spending in the projects sector, which hit $94bn in contract awards for the second year running, according to regional projects tracker MEED Projects – far in excess of the $30bn average in the three years before.

  The projects boom is being driven by a combination of expansionary government spending on infrastructure and renewed investment in property and real estate by both state-owned and private developers alike. There are about $140bn-worth of projects currently under execution in the energy, infrastructure and utilities sectors, and a similar figure in the building sector alone.

  This buoyancy is continuing in 2025, with the $27bn in new project awards to date outstripping the value of project completions by a factor of almost three and setting the market on track for another exceptional year.

  Abu Dhabi is meanwhile hedging its geopolitical fortunes by promising to invest $1.4tn into the US over 10 years – a pledge that will both secure access to the US’ dominant technology market and please the transactional US president.

  While the UAE was only ever in line for the minimum 10% reciprocal tariff imposed as a blanket measure across the world, it does the country no harm at all to build up additional political capital in Washington ahead of whatever whim next takes hold in the office of the presidency.

  

   

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  MEED’s May 2025 report on the UAE includes:

  > GOVERNMENT & ECONOMY: UAE looks to economic longevity
  > BANKING: UAE banks dig in for new era
  > UPSTREAM: Adnoc in cruise control with oil and gas targets
  > DOWNSTREAM: Abu Dhabi chemicals sector sees relentless growth
  > POWER: AI accelerates UAE power generation projects sector
  > CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction continues to lead region
  > TRANSPORT: UAE accelerates its $60bn transport push
  > DATABANK: UAE growth prospects head north

  https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13726696/main.gif

  John Bambridge