meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Trump’s new trial in the Middle East

31 January 2025

 

This package also includes: Trump 2.0 targets technology

Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency on 20 January 2025 is anticipated to have profound impacts on the Middle East, focused on two key areas: US relations with Iran, and the interrelationship between the US, Israel and other regional actors.

Nevertheless, while the broad thrust of Trump’s goals in the Middle East is clear, the way he is likely to go about achieving them is hard to anticipate, with the mercurial president liable to shift his approach on a whim.

Iranian relations

The US’ relations with Iran, where Trump’s position appears to have softened in recent months, is a case in point.

While Trump was initially expected to reinstate a “maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions against Iran, he has lately made a series of nuanced statements. In October, he said: “I would like to see Iran be very successful. The only thing is, they can’t have a nuclear weapon.”

Although the US president has previously hinted at leveraging threats of force against Iran to compel it to restrain its nuclear and military capabilities, he has also hinted at avoiding a military approach and conspicuously sidelined US neoconservatives with harder stances on Iran within his administration.

A softer stance would also fall more in line with Trump’s historic aversion to US military entanglement, as well as his preference for negotiation and deal-making.

The region is furthermore in a different place than it was in Trump’s first term. Back then, he was supported by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but now those same Gulf allies have moderated their oppositional stances towards Iran and turned towards a more cooperative, business-oriented path forward.

There is no way to predict exactly how US relations with Iran are likely to play out over the course of Trump’s second term, but there could be significant room for manoeuvre for an Iranian government willing to put out the right signals and give the US president the symbolic wins he craves.

Israel agenda

One inevitable constant of US relations in the region is Washington’s largely unconditional backing for Israel, and Trump’s administration is expected to reaffirm his support for Israel.

The president’s first term was a triumph for pro-Israel policymakers in Washington, with Trump breaching long-standing US holding patterns of diplomatic ambiguity by recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and normalising the Israeli occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights.

Trump also oversaw the signing of the Abraham Accords that normalised Israeli relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, with the expectation that this diplomatic progress would continue.

Before the onset of the latest war in Gaza in late 2023, Washington had reportedly been on the cusp of finalising a normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia. The threat of this pending deal with Riyadh was one of the key triggers for Palestinian militant groups in Gaza to attack Israel on 7 October.

With the inauguration of Trump, there is every indication that the US administration intends to pick up where the deal with Saudi Arabia left off, as well as to potentially shift US policy in other key areas as well, such as its stance on the legitimacy of Israel’s illegal occupation of the West Bank.

In terms of brokering an agreement with Riyadh, Washington may encounter friction. After October 2023, the Saudi negotiations team indicated that it was keen to proceed with a deal with the US, while leaving the matter of relations with Israel aside, but this may not be to Washington’s taste.

Saudi Arabia’s official position on normalisation has since hardened considerably, with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan Al-Saud repeatedly stating this past year that there can be no normalisation without the realisation of Palestinian statehood. 

This firm position on Palestinian statehood could he hard for Riyadh to pull back from given the current geopolitical tensions in the region. There are nevertheless signs that the Trump administration is still eager to pursue renewed negotiations on the matter of normalisation with Saudi Arabia.

For the moment, the most pressing question for the region is whether Trump will continue to pressure Israel to abide by the terms of the ceasefire in Gaza, as well as its commitment to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon.

The president has laid partial claim to the Gaza ceasefire and expressed his hope that it will proceed to fruition in its second and third phases. 

He has also affirmed Israel’s need to withdraw from southern Lebanon – yet there the timeline has already slipped, raising the possibility that Trump, like Biden, could be soft on implementation.

There is no way to predict exactly how US relations with Iran are likely to play out

Transactional approach

More ominously, on 27 January, Trump mooted the possibility of “cleaning out” the population in Gaza by relocating 1.5 million Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan. Cairo and Amman have promptly dismissed the notion amid a storm of criticism over the unprincipled proposal.

The idea’s very suggestion by Trump points to a deeply transactional approach that jars with standing precepts of the Geneva Convention’s and international humanitarian law – which could cause problems down the road.

Looking ahead, the tenor of Trump’s engagement with the region in his second term is likely to be determined by his immediate reactions to these fast-moving geopolitical events. The Middle East presents major challenges that he will have to come to terms with in his first few months in office. 

Trump 2.0 targets technology

READ MEED’s YEARBOOK 2025

MEED’s 16th highly prized flagship Yearbook publication is available to read, offering subscribers analysis on the outlook for the Mena region’s major markets.

Published on 31 December 2024 and distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the MEED Yearbook 2025 includes:

> GIGAPROJECTS INDEX: Gigaproject spending finds a level
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13353127/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Algeria opens bidding for water treatment plant

    15 April 2026

     

    State-owned Cosider Pipelines, part of Algeria’s public infrastructure group Cosider, has issued a tender for the construction of a demineralisation plant in In Salah in Algeria.

    The contract covers the design, supply, installation, testing and commissioning of a plant with a treatment capacity of 62,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d).

    The tender is open to local and international companies specialising in the design and construction of demineralisation and reverse osmosis desalination plants.

    The bid submission deadline is 26 April.

    The project will be located at In Salah, a key industrial area in southern Algeria, where treated water supply is important for both municipal and industrial use.

    Cosider said that individual bidders must demonstrate that they have completed at least one reverse osmosis demineralisation or desalination plant with a capacity of 20,000 cubic metres a day or more.

    They must also show an average annual turnover of at least AD1bn ($7.7m) for their five best years over the past decade.

    For consortium bids, all partners must share full responsibility for the contract, while the lead company must meet the technical and financial requirements.

    Recent projects

    In 2023, MEED reported that Riyadh-based water utility developer Wetico had won two contracts to develop water desalination plants in Algeria.

    Societe Algerienne de Realisation de Projects Industriels (Sarpi) awarded the contract for the El-Tarf desalination plant, while Entreprise Nationale de Canalisations (Enac) is the client for the Bejaja facility.

    Both plants were commissioned in 2025, each with a production capacity of 300,000 cm/d.

    Separately, Wetico was the main contractor on a third plant commissioned last year. The Cap Dijinet 2 seawater desalination plant in Boumerdes province covers 18 hectares and also has a capacity of 300,000 cm/d.

    Like many countries, Algeria is facing pressure on resources due to longer and more frequent droughts. Seawater desalination is seen as a key driver of the government’s strategy to guarantee drinking water supply.

    According to previous reports, the government is planning to build up to six additional plants by 2030.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16404325/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • WEBINAR: UAE Projects Market 2026

    15 April 2026

    Webinar: UAE Projects Market 2026
    Tuesday, 28 April 2026 | 11:00 GST  |  Register now

    Agenda:

    • Overview of the UAE projects market landscape
    • 2025 projects market performance
    • Value of work awarded 2026 YTD
    • Impact of the Iran conflict on the projects market and real estate, assessing supply chain disruptions, material cost inflation and war risk premiums
    • Key drivers, challenges and opportunities
    • Size of future pipeline by sector and status
    • Ranking of the top contractors and clients
    • Summary of key current and future projects
    • Short and long-term market outlook
    • Audience Q&A

    Hosted by: Colin Foreman, editor of MEED 

    Colin Foreman is editor and a specialist construction journalist for news and analysis on MEED.com and the MEED Business Review magazine. He has been reporting on the region since 2003, specialising in the construction sector and its impact on the broader economy. He has reported exclusively on a wide range of projects across the region including Dubai Metro, the Burj Khalifa, Jeddah Airport, Doha Metro, Hamad International airport and Yas Island. Before joining MEED, Colin reported on the construction sector in Hong Kong.

    Click here to register

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16401868/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Saudi Landbridge finds its moment in Gulf turmoil

    15 April 2026

    Commentary
    Yasir Iqbal
    Construction writer

    The strategic case for the Saudi Landbridge has never been more urgent. SAR’s appointment of Spain’s Typsa as lead design consultant, reported by MEED this week, is more than a procurement milestone. After two decades of delays, it reflects how the long-deferred project has become a strategic necessity.

    The conflict reshaping the Middle East has made that necessity more immediate. Red Sea transits are costly and unpredictable. The Strait of Hormuz carries risk no insurer can fully price. Saudi Arabia’s most valuable exports, including crude oil, refined products, petrochemicals and industrial goods, move almost entirely by sea through routes that are no longer reliably secure.

    The kingdom sits between two coastlines with no rail link connecting them. That gap is now an economic exposure.

    The $27bn project addresses it directly. More than 1,500 kilometres of track, anchored by a 900km railway between Riyadh and Jeddah, will provide direct freight access from King Abdullah Port on the Red Sea, with upgrades to the Riyadh-Dammam line and a new connection to Yanbu.

    Together, they create what Saudi Arabia has never had: a continuous land corridor linking Gulf industrial ports to Red Sea export terminals, entirely within its own borders.

    The commercial implications are substantial. Aramco’s downstream output, Sabic’s chemicals, and the manufacturing clusters of Jubail and Yanbu gain flexible access to both coasts.

    Exporters targeting Europe and the Americas load at Jeddah; those serving Asia pivot east to Dammam by rail, on demand, without Hormuz risk or Red Sea freight surcharges.

    No neighbouring economy has that optionality. The network also underpins a broader economic ambition. Connecting Jeddah, Riyadh, Dammam, Jubail, Yanbu, King Abdullah port and King Khalid airport by rail positions the kingdom as a genuine logistics corridor between East and West. 

    With design now under way and construction tenders expected imminently, the Landbridge is closer to reality than at any point in its troubled history. Regional disruption did not create this project. But it has made the argument for it unanswerable.

    MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
    > BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
    > UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
    > POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia
    > WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
    > TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure push

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16401567/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Indian firm selected for Saudi sewage treatment project

    15 April 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s National Water Company is understood to have recently selected Indian contractor VA Tech Wabag as its preferred bidder for a contract to expand a sewage treatment plant (STP) in Al-Majmaah in Riyadh Province.

    The engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) package for the Al-Majmaah STP has an estimated value of $65m.

    The scope includes the construction of sewage treatment plant units, a pumping station and an effluent surplus line. It also covers the installation of a Scada system, supervisory control systems and associated facilities.

    As MEED understands, six bids were submitted last year, including from local firms Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies, Al-Rafia Contracting, Civil Works Company, Saudi Sdn Water & Energy and Washnah Trading & Contracting.

    The project forms part of Saudi Arabia’s broader push to expand treatment and reuse infrastructure under Vision 2030, particularly across the Riyadh region.

    MEED recently revealed that NWC had awarded an EPC contract for the latest phase of its long-term operations and maintenance sewage treatment programme.

    The contract to build and upgrade sewage treatment plants with a combined capacity of about 440,000 cubic metres a day was awarded to a consortium led by China’s Jiangsu United Water Technology.

    Elsewhere, a joint venture of Kuwait-based Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding and Wabag is awaiting the formal contract award for phase two of Kuwait’s Doha seawater desalination plant project.

    The firms submitted the lowest bid of $373.2m for the project last year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16401155/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • SAR extends phosphate rail track deadline

    15 April 2026

     

    Saudi Arabian Railways (SAR) has extended the bid submission deadline to 26 April for a multibillion-riyal tender to double the tracks on the existing phosphate transport railway network connecting the Waad Al-Shamal mines to Ras Al-Khair in the kingdom’s Eastern Province.

    The new tender – covering the second section of the track-doubling works and spanning more than 150 kilometres (km) – was issued on 9 February. The previous bid submission deadline was 15 April.

    The new tender follows SAR receiving bids from contractors on 1 February for the project’s first phase, which spans about 100km from the AZ1/Nariyah Yard to Ras Al-Khair.

    The scope includes track doubling, alignment modifications, new utility bridges, culvert widening and hydrological structures, as well as the conversion of the AZ1 siding into a mainline track. It also includes support for signalling and telecommunications systems.

    The tender notice was issued in late November, with a bid submission deadline of 20 January 2026.

    Switzerland-based engineering firm ARX is the project consultant.

    MEED understands that these two packages are the first of four that SAR is expected to tender for the phosphate railway line. Other packages expected to be tendered shortly include the depot and systems packages.

    In 2023, MEED reported that SAR was planning two projects to increase its freight capacity, including an estimated SR4.2bn ($1.1bn) project to install a second track along the North Train Freight Line and construct three new freight yards.

    Formerly known as the North-South Railway, the North Train is a 1,550km-long freight line running from the phosphate and bauxite mines in the far north of the kingdom to the Al-Baithah junction. There, it diverges into a line southward to Riyadh and a second line running east to downstream fertiliser production and alumina refining facilities at Ras Al-Khair on the Gulf coast.

    Adding a second track and the freight yards will significantly increase the network’s cargo-carrying capacity and facilitate increased industrial production. Project implementation is expected to take four years.

    State-owned SAR is also considering increasing the localisation of railway materials and equipment, including the construction of a cement sleeper manufacturing facility.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16400986/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal