meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Trump’s new trial in the Middle East

31 January 2025

 

This package also includes: Trump 2.0 targets technology

Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency on 20 January 2025 is anticipated to have profound impacts on the Middle East, focused on two key areas: US relations with Iran, and the interrelationship between the US, Israel and other regional actors.

Nevertheless, while the broad thrust of Trump’s goals in the Middle East is clear, the way he is likely to go about achieving them is hard to anticipate, with the mercurial president liable to shift his approach on a whim.

Iranian relations

The US’ relations with Iran, where Trump’s position appears to have softened in recent months, is a case in point.

While Trump was initially expected to reinstate a “maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions against Iran, he has lately made a series of nuanced statements. In October, he said: “I would like to see Iran be very successful. The only thing is, they can’t have a nuclear weapon.”

Although the US president has previously hinted at leveraging threats of force against Iran to compel it to restrain its nuclear and military capabilities, he has also hinted at avoiding a military approach and conspicuously sidelined US neoconservatives with harder stances on Iran within his administration.

A softer stance would also fall more in line with Trump’s historic aversion to US military entanglement, as well as his preference for negotiation and deal-making.

The region is furthermore in a different place than it was in Trump’s first term. Back then, he was supported by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but now those same Gulf allies have moderated their oppositional stances towards Iran and turned towards a more cooperative, business-oriented path forward.

There is no way to predict exactly how US relations with Iran are likely to play out over the course of Trump’s second term, but there could be significant room for manoeuvre for an Iranian government willing to put out the right signals and give the US president the symbolic wins he craves.

Israel agenda

One inevitable constant of US relations in the region is Washington’s largely unconditional backing for Israel, and Trump’s administration is expected to reaffirm his support for Israel.

The president’s first term was a triumph for pro-Israel policymakers in Washington, with Trump breaching long-standing US holding patterns of diplomatic ambiguity by recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and normalising the Israeli occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights.

Trump also oversaw the signing of the Abraham Accords that normalised Israeli relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, with the expectation that this diplomatic progress would continue.

Before the onset of the latest war in Gaza in late 2023, Washington had reportedly been on the cusp of finalising a normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia. The threat of this pending deal with Riyadh was one of the key triggers for Palestinian militant groups in Gaza to attack Israel on 7 October.

With the inauguration of Trump, there is every indication that the US administration intends to pick up where the deal with Saudi Arabia left off, as well as to potentially shift US policy in other key areas as well, such as its stance on the legitimacy of Israel’s illegal occupation of the West Bank.

In terms of brokering an agreement with Riyadh, Washington may encounter friction. After October 2023, the Saudi negotiations team indicated that it was keen to proceed with a deal with the US, while leaving the matter of relations with Israel aside, but this may not be to Washington’s taste.

Saudi Arabia’s official position on normalisation has since hardened considerably, with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan Al-Saud repeatedly stating this past year that there can be no normalisation without the realisation of Palestinian statehood. 

This firm position on Palestinian statehood could he hard for Riyadh to pull back from given the current geopolitical tensions in the region. There are nevertheless signs that the Trump administration is still eager to pursue renewed negotiations on the matter of normalisation with Saudi Arabia.

For the moment, the most pressing question for the region is whether Trump will continue to pressure Israel to abide by the terms of the ceasefire in Gaza, as well as its commitment to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon.

The president has laid partial claim to the Gaza ceasefire and expressed his hope that it will proceed to fruition in its second and third phases. 

He has also affirmed Israel’s need to withdraw from southern Lebanon – yet there the timeline has already slipped, raising the possibility that Trump, like Biden, could be soft on implementation.

There is no way to predict exactly how US relations with Iran are likely to play out

Transactional approach

More ominously, on 27 January, Trump mooted the possibility of “cleaning out” the population in Gaza by relocating 1.5 million Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan. Cairo and Amman have promptly dismissed the notion amid a storm of criticism over the unprincipled proposal.

The idea’s very suggestion by Trump points to a deeply transactional approach that jars with standing precepts of the Geneva Convention’s and international humanitarian law – which could cause problems down the road.

Looking ahead, the tenor of Trump’s engagement with the region in his second term is likely to be determined by his immediate reactions to these fast-moving geopolitical events. The Middle East presents major challenges that he will have to come to terms with in his first few months in office. 

Trump 2.0 targets technology

READ MEED’s YEARBOOK 2025

MEED’s 16th highly prized flagship Yearbook publication is available to read, offering subscribers analysis on the outlook for the Mena region’s major markets.

Published on 31 December 2024 and distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the MEED Yearbook 2025 includes:

> GIGAPROJECTS INDEX: Gigaproject spending finds a level
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13353127/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Libya and Tunisia reschedule joint oil and gas licensing round

    19 August 2026

    The Libyan-Tunisian Joint Oil Exploration, Exploitation and Petroleum Services Company (Joint Oil) has rescheduled its planned licensing round for offshore exploration and development projects in a zone spanning the waters of both countries.

    The bidding process is now due to open on 7 September 2026, with bid submissions due by 8 January 2027.

    Previously, in May, Joint Oil said it planned to open the bid round on 1 August 2026.

    The upcoming round will offer two oil and gas packages. The first is an exploration package across the 3,000-square-kilometre Joint Oil Block, in water depths of 80-120 metres.

    Significant data are available on the geology of this area, including 6,500km of 2D and 1,900 square kilometres of 3D seismic data. Data also exists from a run of legacy wells dating to 1976.

    The second package covers development of the Zarat discovery specifically. This is a gas-condensate reservoir straddling the boundary between Tunisia’s national acreage and the jointly-held Joint Oil Block.

    Joint Oil is equally owned by Tunisia’s national oil company, ETAP, and OLA Energy Holdings, a subsidiary of the Libya Africa Investment Portfolio (LAIP).

    LAIP is a subsidiary of Libya’s sovereign wealth institution, the Libya Investment Authority.

    Joint Oil was established under a bilateral agreement between Libya and Tunisia in 1988 to explore and develop hydrocarbons in offshore areas shared by the two countries.

    The key dates from the new schedule for the licensing round are:

    • 7 September 2026: Bid round opens; qualified offshore operators can apply for access to the Virtual Data Room
    • 9 September 2026: Joint Oil presents the opportunity at the MMEA Scout Group meeting in London
    • 29-30 September 2026: Joint Oil presents at the World Energy Summit in London
    • 31 December 2026: Bid round closes
    • 8 January 2027: Bid submissions due
    • 26 February 2027: Winning bidders notified
    • 30 April 2027: Formal awards expected

    Texas-based Moyes & Co is acting as a strategic adviser on the licensing round.

    Houston-headquartered Marathon discovered the Zarat field in 1992. It is estimated to hold around 0.4 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas and 50 million barrels of liquids.

    A previous development project concept centred on a mobile production unit, worth around $1bn, tied back to the nearby Miskar platform.

    Despite this, the field has remained undeveloped for over three decades.

    One of the key challenges to developing the reserve is its high carbon dioxide content.

    Joint Oil has run bid rounds for the acreage before without success, including as recently as late 2023.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18861047/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • UAE cuts trade and financial links with Iran

    19 August 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The UAE has halted all trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions with Iran until further notice, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on 19 August.

    The suspension has been imposed in light of escalations that undermine regional and international peace and security, the ministry said. It did not specify a timeframe for any resumption.

    The ministry rejected allegations regarding the status of the economic relationship between the UAE and Iran, and restated the UAE's commitment to dialogue, cooperation and regional integration as means of advancing peace, stability and prosperity in the region.

    It said the UAE remains committed to safeguarding the integrity of the financial system, in line with international law and global standards.

    The suspension covers the full range of commercial and financial links between the two countries. The UAE has historically been one of Iran's most significant trading partners, with much of the relationship built on re-export trade routed through Dubai to Iranian ports across the Gulf.

    The ministry statement did not detail the mechanism for enforcing the halt, the sectors affected, or arrangements for existing contracts and in-transit cargo.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18857953/main0856.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Abu Dhabi begins Dar Al-Funoon Saadiyat construction

    19 August 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Abu Dhabi-based piling contractor APCC Piling & Marine Contracting has started the enabling works on Dar Al-Funoon, a cultural development near the Saadiyat Cultural District.

    The project, commissioned by the Department of Culture & Tourism – Abu Dhabi, was designed by the late Canadian-American architect Frank Gehry.

    The venue is scheduled to open in 2030.

    MEED understands that the main contract bids are under evaluation and the project is slated for award soon.

    The complex will feature a multipurpose hall with more than 2,000 seats, a 3,500-seat open-air amphitheatre, a 400-seat studio theatre and a 250-seat jazz venue, bringing total capacity to more than 6,000 across its performance spaces.

    The venue will host leading international productions, delivering high-quality cultural experiences for audiences locally, regionally and globally.

    Upon completion, it will become one of the region’s largest performing arts venues.

    The project was announced by Sheikh Khaled Bin Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Chairman of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council in June, as MEED reported.

    During a review of the plans, he was briefed on the architectural concept and the development and construction phases, as well as the venue’s advanced technical capabilities, which are being designed to meet the highest international standards for staging major global productions.

    The announcement is part of the ongoing development of Saadiyat Island, which already includes Louvre Abu Dhabi, Zayed National Museum, Natural History Museum Abu Dhabi, teamLab Phenomena Abu Dhabi and the upcoming Guggenheim Abu Dhabi.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18852155/main4145.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Contractor wins Dubai Canal drainage deal

    19 August 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Local firm Detech Contracting has won an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract to upgrade and rehabilitate the East Dubai Canal stormwater system.

    The project, known as TF-16-C1, is part of Dubai’s Tasreef strategic plan to improve the emirate’s stormwater network, increase flood protection and enhance the resilience of Dubai’s infrastructure.
     
    According to a source, Lebanon's Khatib & Alami has also been appointed as a consultant on the project.

    The works will focus on upgrading existing stormwater infrastructure to increase capacity and improve reliability during heavy rainfall.

    The scope includes upgrading the stormwater drainage system, laying pipelines and constructing manholes and gullies. It also includes the construction of pumping stations and diversion works, site clearance and other associated facilities.

    In February, MEED reported that the municipality had invited consultants to qualify for a contract to supervise three stormwater drainage projects (TF-16-C1, TF-15-C2 and TF-13-C1)

    China State Construction Engineering Corporation announced in July that it had won the EPC contract for the TF-15-C2 stormwater drainage network project located on Umm Suqeim Road in the Al-Barsha and Al-Quoz areas of Dubai.

    MEED understands contractor bids are still being evaluated for the TF-13-C1 project, which focuses on developing a drainage system for the Al-Marmum area.

    Detech has been awarded several packages under the Tasreef programme in the past 18 months.

    These include:

    • TF-16-C1: upgrading and rehabilitation of East Dubai Canal stormwater system
    • TF-15-C1: stormwater drainage system at Al-Wasl Road for communities west of Dubai Canal
    • TF-05-C1: stormwater drainage system in Jebel Ali 
    • TF-04: stormwater drainage system on Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Road and Al-Yalayis Road
    • DS-419: Tasreef rainwater drainage network: West Deira stormwater system upgrade and rehabilitation 

    As MEED exclusively reported, the municipality recently issued a letter of award for the TF-15-C1 project, covering the construction of a stormwater drainage system on Al-Wasl Road and communities west of Dubai Canal.

    The project includes the construction of a gravity-based stormwater pipeline network with diameters of up to 3.5 metres. It is estimated to cost $100m.

    This week, Dubai Municipality also issued three tenders for stormwater and sewerage infrastructure projects serving Hind City, Dubailand and surrounding areas.

    The projects cover drainage networks for Hind 4, connections to the stormwater network in Dubailand and a stormwater trunk line serving Hind 3, Hind 4 and Umm Al-Daman.

    All three have bid submission deadlines of 10 September.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18850438/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Maaden and Aramco sign deal to create joint venture

    18 August 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden) and Saudi Aramco have signed a shareholders’ agreement to form a joint venture (JV). Maaden will hold a 51% stake in the JV, while Aramco will own the remaining 49%.

    Before signing the shareholders’ agreement, the two Saudi state-owned companies signed a non-binding heads of agreement in January 2025 aimed at establishing the JV.

    “Combining the strengths of two leaders in their respective fields, the JV will focus on copper and other minerals critical to the energy transition,” the two parties said in a joint statement.

    The JV will focus on exploration across Zone 4, also known as the Transition Zone, within the Arabian Platform in Saudi Arabia. Spanning approximately 182,000 square kilometres – nearly 10% of the kingdom’s total land area – the expected exploration area stretches along a 100-kilometre-wide corridor running parallel to the Arabian Shield.

    “It represents a major new opportunity for mineral discovery in the kingdom,” Maaden and Aramco said.

    Copper, which is increasingly significant for electric vehicles, power networks, energy storage and renewable energy systems, will be a main focus of the JV.

    Copper accounts for more than 20% of the $1.2tn mined-metals market. The copper market is currently valued at about $250bn and is projected to grow to more than $400bn by 2035.

    The JV will also explore for other energy transition minerals, including zinc, lead and rare earth elements, “that are expected to be crucial to industries of the future”.

    “Leveraging advanced computational algorithms, [artificial intelligence] AI, and high-performance computing, the JV intends to target areas most likely to contain copper and valuable minerals, accelerating the path from regional screening to target definition and discovery. This is expected to support long-term sector development, reinforce the kingdom’s role in the global minerals value chain, and help meet rising demand for transition minerals,” the partners said.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18833329/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen