meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Trump’s new trial in the Middle East

31 January 2025

 

This package also includes: Trump 2.0 targets technology

Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency on 20 January 2025 is anticipated to have profound impacts on the Middle East, focused on two key areas: US relations with Iran, and the interrelationship between the US, Israel and other regional actors.

Nevertheless, while the broad thrust of Trump’s goals in the Middle East is clear, the way he is likely to go about achieving them is hard to anticipate, with the mercurial president liable to shift his approach on a whim.

Iranian relations

The US’ relations with Iran, where Trump’s position appears to have softened in recent months, is a case in point.

While Trump was initially expected to reinstate a “maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions against Iran, he has lately made a series of nuanced statements. In October, he said: “I would like to see Iran be very successful. The only thing is, they can’t have a nuclear weapon.”

Although the US president has previously hinted at leveraging threats of force against Iran to compel it to restrain its nuclear and military capabilities, he has also hinted at avoiding a military approach and conspicuously sidelined US neoconservatives with harder stances on Iran within his administration.

A softer stance would also fall more in line with Trump’s historic aversion to US military entanglement, as well as his preference for negotiation and deal-making.

The region is furthermore in a different place than it was in Trump’s first term. Back then, he was supported by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but now those same Gulf allies have moderated their oppositional stances towards Iran and turned towards a more cooperative, business-oriented path forward.

There is no way to predict exactly how US relations with Iran are likely to play out over the course of Trump’s second term, but there could be significant room for manoeuvre for an Iranian government willing to put out the right signals and give the US president the symbolic wins he craves.

Israel agenda

One inevitable constant of US relations in the region is Washington’s largely unconditional backing for Israel, and Trump’s administration is expected to reaffirm his support for Israel.

The president’s first term was a triumph for pro-Israel policymakers in Washington, with Trump breaching long-standing US holding patterns of diplomatic ambiguity by recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and normalising the Israeli occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights.

Trump also oversaw the signing of the Abraham Accords that normalised Israeli relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, with the expectation that this diplomatic progress would continue.

Before the onset of the latest war in Gaza in late 2023, Washington had reportedly been on the cusp of finalising a normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia. The threat of this pending deal with Riyadh was one of the key triggers for Palestinian militant groups in Gaza to attack Israel on 7 October.

With the inauguration of Trump, there is every indication that the US administration intends to pick up where the deal with Saudi Arabia left off, as well as to potentially shift US policy in other key areas as well, such as its stance on the legitimacy of Israel’s illegal occupation of the West Bank.

In terms of brokering an agreement with Riyadh, Washington may encounter friction. After October 2023, the Saudi negotiations team indicated that it was keen to proceed with a deal with the US, while leaving the matter of relations with Israel aside, but this may not be to Washington’s taste.

Saudi Arabia’s official position on normalisation has since hardened considerably, with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan Al-Saud repeatedly stating this past year that there can be no normalisation without the realisation of Palestinian statehood. 

This firm position on Palestinian statehood could he hard for Riyadh to pull back from given the current geopolitical tensions in the region. There are nevertheless signs that the Trump administration is still eager to pursue renewed negotiations on the matter of normalisation with Saudi Arabia.

For the moment, the most pressing question for the region is whether Trump will continue to pressure Israel to abide by the terms of the ceasefire in Gaza, as well as its commitment to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon.

The president has laid partial claim to the Gaza ceasefire and expressed his hope that it will proceed to fruition in its second and third phases. 

He has also affirmed Israel’s need to withdraw from southern Lebanon – yet there the timeline has already slipped, raising the possibility that Trump, like Biden, could be soft on implementation.

There is no way to predict exactly how US relations with Iran are likely to play out

Transactional approach

More ominously, on 27 January, Trump mooted the possibility of “cleaning out” the population in Gaza by relocating 1.5 million Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan. Cairo and Amman have promptly dismissed the notion amid a storm of criticism over the unprincipled proposal.

The idea’s very suggestion by Trump points to a deeply transactional approach that jars with standing precepts of the Geneva Convention’s and international humanitarian law – which could cause problems down the road.

Looking ahead, the tenor of Trump’s engagement with the region in his second term is likely to be determined by his immediate reactions to these fast-moving geopolitical events. The Middle East presents major challenges that he will have to come to terms with in his first few months in office. 

Trump 2.0 targets technology

READ MEED’s YEARBOOK 2025

MEED’s 16th highly prized flagship Yearbook publication is available to read, offering subscribers analysis on the outlook for the Mena region’s major markets.

Published on 31 December 2024 and distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the MEED Yearbook 2025 includes:

> GIGAPROJECTS INDEX: Gigaproject spending finds a level
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13353127/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • UAE firm acquires majority stake in African power producer

    31 August 2026

    Abu Dhabi-based ePointZero has announced a deal to acquire a 90% stake in pan-African independent power producer Azura Power Holdings.

    The transaction will give the subsidiary of UAE investment group 2PointZero control of 752MW of operating power generation capacity across Nigeria, Senegal and Mozambique.

    The company will acquire the respective stakes held by existing shareholders Actis and Africa50 through an acquisition vehicle established with Amaya Capital, an Africa-focused investment firm based in London.

    Amaya Capital founded Azuro Power in 2010 and will retain a 10% minority stake in the company, which also has a development pipeline of more than 1.5GW of planned power projects.

    The pipeline includes expansions at existing sites, as well as new gas and renewable energy projects and battery energy storage systems.

    Azuro Power’s operating portfolio comprises the 461MW Azura-Edo power plant in Nigeria, the 116MW Tobene power plant in Senegal and the 175MW Central Termica de Ressano Garcia plant in Mozambique. The company’s operating assets generate around 10% of each country’s grid baseload power, the statement said.

    The company’s projects have received financing and support from development finance institutions including the World Bank, British International Investment, German Investment & Development Company, the US International Development Finance Corporation, the Dutch entrepreneurial development bank, the International Finance Corporation, the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency and France’s Proparco.

    The deal, subject to regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions, marks ePointZero’s entry into African power generation and follows the acquisition of a 20% stake in Egypt’s Elsewedy Electric in 2024.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19171095/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Contract award nears for Saudi Landbridge Riyadh section

    31 August 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) is preparing to award the main construction contract for the design-and-build of the Riyadh Rail Link, a new north-to-south railway line across the capital.

    MEED understands that the commercial proposals were opened two weeks ago, with a decision expected imminently.

    SAR began the post-tender clarifications with bidders in July, as MEED reported.

    The bidders include:

    • China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation / Al-Ayuni Investment & Contracting (China/local)
    • Nesma & Partners / China Harbour Engineering Company (local/China)
    • Al-Rashid Trading & Contracting / IC Ictas Construction / Saipem (local/Turkiye/Spain)
    • Saudi Binladin Group (local)

    In June, MEED exclusively reported that contractors submitted their commercial proposals on the 30th of that month.

    The scope includes a 35-kilometre double-track line connecting SAR’s North-South Railway to the Eastern Railway network.

    Issued on 29 January, the tender also covers the procurement, construction and installation of associated infrastructure, including viaducts, civil works, utility diversions/installations, signalling systems and other related works.

    Once delivered, the Riyadh Rail Link is expected to become a key component of the Saudi Landbridge railway.

    In January, SAR said it would deliver the Saudi Landbridge project through a “new mechanism” by 2034, after failing to reach an agreement with a Chinese consortium to construct it, as MEED reported.

    In an interview with local media, SAR CEO Bashar Bin Khalid Al-Malik said the consortium failed to meet local content requirements, and that the project would instead be delivered in several phases under a different procurement model.

    Negotiations have been under way between Saudi Arabia and China-backed investors interested in developing the scheme through a public-private partnership (PPP). Al-Malik put the project cost at about SR100bn ($26.6bn).

    Overall, it comprises more than 1,500km of new track. A core element is a 900km railway between Riyadh and Jeddah, providing the capital with direct freight access to King Abdullah Port on the Red Sea.

    Other key elements include upgrading the existing Riyadh-Dammam line, a bypass around the capital known as the Riyadh Link, and a connection between King Abdullah Port and Yanbu.

    The Saudi Landbridge is one of the kingdom’s most anticipated project programmes. First announced in 2004, it was put on hold in 2010 before being revived a year later. Rights-of-way issues, route alignment and the high cost have been among the main stumbling blocks.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19161887/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Prequalification begins for Dammam suburb boulevard PPP

    31 August 2026

    Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Municipalities & Housing, in collaboration with Ashraq Development Company and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP, has issued a request for qualification (RFQ) notice for the development of the King Fahd suburb boulevard project in Dammam.

    The notice was issued on 27 August, with a submission deadline of 22 October.

    The public-private partnership (PPP) project will be delivered using a design, build, finance, operate, maintain and transfer model, with a 43-year contract term.

    The project is located in Al-Bayda Governorate and features a 4 kilometre (km) mixed-use zone along a central boulevard, forming part of a larger 7.3km corridor.

    The project will be developed in two phases and span about 1 million square metres.

    According to a statement: “The private sector partner will be responsible for developing and operating the boulevard, which includes leisure and recreational facilities, public parks, entertainment venues, retail outlets, office spaces, hospitality zones, pedestrian walkways and road networks.”

    The project is the latest addition to the growing number of PPP projects in the kingdom. 

    In January, Saudi Arabia launched a national privatisation strategy aimed at mobilising $64bn in private sector capital by 2030.

    Building on the privatisation programme first introduced in 2018, the strategy focuses on unlocking state-owned assets for private investment and privatising selected government services.

    In a statement, NCP said the strategy comprises 147 opportunities drawn from a broader pipeline of more than 500 projects across 18 sectors.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19160560/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Contractors submit bids for Kuwait power transmission works

    31 August 2026

     

    Kuwait’s Public Authority for Housing Welfare (PAHW) has received bids for two tenders covering power transmission works at the South Saad Al-Abdullah residential development.

    The first tender covers the supply, installation and maintenance of 10 main 132/11kV transformer substations for the third phase of the development. 

    According to sources, five contractors submitted bids on 26 August. The local Sayed Hamid Behbehani & Sons made the lowest offer of $104.2m.

    The bids include:

    • Sayed Hamid Behbehani & Sons: $104.2m (Kuwait)
    • Industrial Electrical Projects (IEP): $111.5m (Kuwait)
    • Larsen & Toubro: $114m (India)
    • Oman National Engineering & Investment: $118m (Oman)
    • National Contracting Company: $126m (Saudi Arabia)

    The second PAHW tender covers the supply, installation and maintenance of 10 main 132/11kV transformer substations for the fourth phase of the project. 

    According to sources, five contractors also submitted bids on 26 August, with A-Ahleia Switchgear making the lowest offer of $103.3m.

    The bids include:

    • Al-Ahleia Switchgear: $103.3m (Kuwait)
    • Industrial Electrical Projects (IEP): $111.7m (Kuwait)
    • Larsen & Toubro: $114m (India)
    • Oman National Engineering & Investment: $118.3m (Oman)
    • National Contracting Company: $126m (Saudi Arabia)

    Both projects were initially tendered in May. As reported by MEED, PAHW previously issued addendums for both substation tenders, revising the qualification requirements for bidders.

    According to the revised requirements, contractors must be approved by Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity, Water & Renewable Energy and have experience supplying and installing at least 10 132kV substations in Kuwait.

    The addendums also introduced requirements related to transformer and gas-insulated switchgear manufacturing approvals, as well as operational performance records for installed equipment.

    Sabah Al-Ahmad residential city

    Meanwhile, bids remain under evaluation for two 132kV underground cable tenders for the South Sabah Al-Ahmad residential development, tendered by PAHW in May.

    The first cable tender covers the supply, extension and maintenance of 132kV underground cables feeding eight main transformer substations serving the N1, N6 and N11 districts in the project’s fourth phase. 

    MEED previously reported that Egytech Cables, a subsidiary of Egypt’s Elsewedy Electric, was the lowest bidder with an offer of $42.37m.

    The second cable tender covers the supply, extension and maintenance of 132kV underground cables linked to substations serving the N5, N6, N8 and N10 districts in the project’s third phase. 

    Egytech Cables submitted the lowest offer of $39.95m. TBEA Shandong Luneng Taishan Cable submitted a bid of $41.89m, along with Riyadh Cables ($42.05m) and The Contractor General Trading & Contracting ($44.97m).

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19151780/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Eni plans to drill 230 oil and gas wells in Egypt

    31 August 2026

    Italy’s Eni is planning to drill 230 new oil and gas wells in Egypt, according to a statement from the country’s Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources.

    Eni’s chief executive, Claudio Descalzi, discussed his plans for exploration and development in Egypt on 25 August during a meeting with Egypt’s Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly and the Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Karim Badawi.

    During the meeting, Descalzi said that the company has plans to drill 30 exploration wells in addition to 200 development wells.

    Descalzi said his company plans to intensify its exploration and development programmes, especially in the Mediterranean and Western Sahara regions, to increase production of natural gas and crude oil.

    He said that his company plans to use the latest seismic imaging and artificial intelligence technologies as a key part of its exploration and development plans.

    In a separate statement, Eni also said that it is working with UK-headquartered BP and state-owned Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) to reach a final investment decision (FID) for a project to develop the major gas discovery of Denise West in Egypt’s Temsah concession.

    Eni made the discovery in February and says it holds about 2 trillion cubic feet of gas and 130,000 barrels of condensate.

    It is targeting first gas in less than two years and expects to reach FID “in the next few months”, according to its statement.

    Eni’s total investments in Egypt have reached a value of $8.5bn, according to the statement from Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources.

    During the meeting on 25 August, Descalzi also stressed the importance of linking Cyprus’ Cronos gas field to Egyptian export infrastructure.

    In July, Eni reached the FID to develop the Cronos project in deep waters offshore Cyprus, targeting the first Cypriot gas to market in 2028.

    Production is expected to reach a plateau of 500 million standard cubic feet a day.

    In October last year, Egypt and Cyprus signed provisional agreements to connect Cyprus’ Cronos gas field to Egypt’s gas infrastructure.

    The agreements were signed by parties including Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Eni, and the French oil and gas company TotalEnergies.

    Connecting the Cronos field to Egypt is expected to involve the tendering of a major subsea pipeline project.

    This will allow gas to be transported and processed in existing Zohr facilities in Egypt, then transferred and liquefied at the Damietta LNG plant for export as LNG to international markets, primarily Europe.

    At the meeting on 25 August, Descalzi said the planned project to connect the Cronos field to Egypt will be considered a model for regional cooperation in the gas sector and will enhance Egypt’s status as a regional gas hub.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19079059/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp