meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Trump’s new trial in the Middle East

31 January 2025

 

This package also includes: Trump 2.0 targets technology

Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency on 20 January 2025 is anticipated to have profound impacts on the Middle East, focused on two key areas: US relations with Iran, and the interrelationship between the US, Israel and other regional actors.

Nevertheless, while the broad thrust of Trump’s goals in the Middle East is clear, the way he is likely to go about achieving them is hard to anticipate, with the mercurial president liable to shift his approach on a whim.

Iranian relations

The US’ relations with Iran, where Trump’s position appears to have softened in recent months, is a case in point.

While Trump was initially expected to reinstate a “maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions against Iran, he has lately made a series of nuanced statements. In October, he said: “I would like to see Iran be very successful. The only thing is, they can’t have a nuclear weapon.”

Although the US president has previously hinted at leveraging threats of force against Iran to compel it to restrain its nuclear and military capabilities, he has also hinted at avoiding a military approach and conspicuously sidelined US neoconservatives with harder stances on Iran within his administration.

A softer stance would also fall more in line with Trump’s historic aversion to US military entanglement, as well as his preference for negotiation and deal-making.

The region is furthermore in a different place than it was in Trump’s first term. Back then, he was supported by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but now those same Gulf allies have moderated their oppositional stances towards Iran and turned towards a more cooperative, business-oriented path forward.

There is no way to predict exactly how US relations with Iran are likely to play out over the course of Trump’s second term, but there could be significant room for manoeuvre for an Iranian government willing to put out the right signals and give the US president the symbolic wins he craves.

Israel agenda

One inevitable constant of US relations in the region is Washington’s largely unconditional backing for Israel, and Trump’s administration is expected to reaffirm his support for Israel.

The president’s first term was a triumph for pro-Israel policymakers in Washington, with Trump breaching long-standing US holding patterns of diplomatic ambiguity by recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and normalising the Israeli occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights.

Trump also oversaw the signing of the Abraham Accords that normalised Israeli relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, with the expectation that this diplomatic progress would continue.

Before the onset of the latest war in Gaza in late 2023, Washington had reportedly been on the cusp of finalising a normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia. The threat of this pending deal with Riyadh was one of the key triggers for Palestinian militant groups in Gaza to attack Israel on 7 October.

With the inauguration of Trump, there is every indication that the US administration intends to pick up where the deal with Saudi Arabia left off, as well as to potentially shift US policy in other key areas as well, such as its stance on the legitimacy of Israel’s illegal occupation of the West Bank.

In terms of brokering an agreement with Riyadh, Washington may encounter friction. After October 2023, the Saudi negotiations team indicated that it was keen to proceed with a deal with the US, while leaving the matter of relations with Israel aside, but this may not be to Washington’s taste.

Saudi Arabia’s official position on normalisation has since hardened considerably, with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan Al-Saud repeatedly stating this past year that there can be no normalisation without the realisation of Palestinian statehood. 

This firm position on Palestinian statehood could he hard for Riyadh to pull back from given the current geopolitical tensions in the region. There are nevertheless signs that the Trump administration is still eager to pursue renewed negotiations on the matter of normalisation with Saudi Arabia.

For the moment, the most pressing question for the region is whether Trump will continue to pressure Israel to abide by the terms of the ceasefire in Gaza, as well as its commitment to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon.

The president has laid partial claim to the Gaza ceasefire and expressed his hope that it will proceed to fruition in its second and third phases. 

He has also affirmed Israel’s need to withdraw from southern Lebanon – yet there the timeline has already slipped, raising the possibility that Trump, like Biden, could be soft on implementation.

There is no way to predict exactly how US relations with Iran are likely to play out

Transactional approach

More ominously, on 27 January, Trump mooted the possibility of “cleaning out” the population in Gaza by relocating 1.5 million Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan. Cairo and Amman have promptly dismissed the notion amid a storm of criticism over the unprincipled proposal.

The idea’s very suggestion by Trump points to a deeply transactional approach that jars with standing precepts of the Geneva Convention’s and international humanitarian law – which could cause problems down the road.

Looking ahead, the tenor of Trump’s engagement with the region in his second term is likely to be determined by his immediate reactions to these fast-moving geopolitical events. The Middle East presents major challenges that he will have to come to terms with in his first few months in office. 

Trump 2.0 targets technology

READ MEED’s YEARBOOK 2025

MEED’s 16th highly prized flagship Yearbook publication is available to read, offering subscribers analysis on the outlook for the Mena region’s major markets.

Published on 31 December 2024 and distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the MEED Yearbook 2025 includes:

> GIGAPROJECTS INDEX: Gigaproject spending finds a level
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13353127/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • What IFAD’s wind-down means for Gulf commodity markets

    24 September 2026

     

    The wind-down of ICE Futures Abu Dhabi (IFAD) – the Abu Dhabi-based futures exchange operated by US-based global exchange and clearing house operator Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) – on 31 July 2026 was the end of an era. It was also the opening move in a transformation whose legal consequences will keep the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) Courts, Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) Courts and London arbitral tribunals occupied for years. 

    One strategy

    On 31 July, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) announced that all four of its crude grades would move from IFAD pricing to a Platts Dubai prompt-month mechanism in November. ICE published its wind-down circular the same day. 

    The Iran war was the catalyst: the official selling price of Murban, Adnoc’s flagship crude grade, surged from $63 a barrel in February to $110.75 in May, and Asian refiners – managing their margins against a crude price set two months ahead of loading – demanded a more straightforward mechanism.

    But the IFAD wind-down must be read alongside three other key decisions. On 1 May, the UAE withdrew from oil producers’ group Opec, freeing Adnoc from quota constraints that had capped production at 3.4 million barrels a day against a capacity of 4.85 million. On 6 July, Adnoc launched a global liquefied natural gas marketing and trading platform in the ADGM, targeting 47 million tonnes a year by 2035. Then, on 22 July, DP World signed a 50-year concession with the Fujairah Ports Authority to develop the Al-Rugaylat and Dibba terminals on the Gulf of Oman coast. 

    Together, these decisions constitute a coherent strategic architecture: a Hormuz-independent, Fujairah-centred, Indian Ocean-facing trade infrastructure designed to serve the markets where commodity demand will be most durable over the next 30 years.

    Force majeure battleground

    The legal consequences of the Iran war are immediate and novel. The most contested issue is force majeure. 

    IFAD was established within ADGM, which applies English common law, and was regulated by the ADGM Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA). Under English law, there is no freestanding right to invoke force majeure, and the threshold is demanding. General disruption or increased costs do not suffice. The question is whether performance has become legally or physically impossible.

    When Iranian strikes damaged the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, the sole IFAD delivery point, and vessel traffic through Hormuz fell from over 100 ships a day to fewer than 14, the impossibility argument strengthened materially. But a critical distinction separates parties whose non-delivery was attributable to the physical closure of Hormuz from those whose non-delivery reflected elevated war risk premiums and unavailable insurance: the latter falls short of legal impossibility under English law.

    The governing law of each contract is therefore significant. Under UAE civil law, statutory provisions address both impossibility and the court’s discretion to reduce obligations. A party whose contract is governed by English law faces a harder test, even on identical facts. 

    This asymmetry is generating an uptick in advisory work as trading houses assess their positions across portfolios of contracts with different governing law provisions. 

    The sanctions picture adds further complexity: the successive reimposition of US sanctions following ceasefire collapses has affected the legality of positions that were fully compliant when established, raising questions for which English law provides no settled answer.

    The legal consequences of the Iran war are immediate and novel

    Legal infrastructure

    The FSRA’s regulatory framework has demonstrated resilience during the crisis. Its Recognised Investment Exchange licensing regime, under which IFAD operated, and its Environmental Instrument classification, making ADGM the first jurisdiction in the world to regulate voluntary carbon credits as financial instruments, remain available to new market entrants. 

    ADGM Courts, applying English common law, has developed a strong body of legal precedent over 11 years. And London-based ICE Clear Europe’s relationship with IFAD provides a model for how future exchange infrastructure in ADGM might access London clearing capability while remaining regulated in Abu Dhabi.

    With the 31st UN Climate Change Conference Cop31 opening in Antalya on 9 November 2026 and Cop32 scheduled for Addis Ababa in 2027, the Article 6 Paris Agreement carbon market framework is developing rapidly. The FSRA’s Environmental Instrument classification positions ADGM as a natural regulatory home for the Gulf-Africa carbon market infrastructure that neither London nor Singapore is positioned to provide. The DP World concession, with its East African port network providing the physical verification layer that carbon credit integrity requires, reinforces that positioning.

    Legal practitioners who develop expertise in this intersection of English common law, FSRA regulation, DIFC financial services law and international commodity trading before the IFAD delivery disputes are resolved and before the replacement infrastructure is announced, will be well placed in a jurisdiction growing at 57% annually by assets under management. The story of what follows IFAD has barely begun.

     

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19954346/main.gif
  • US DFC approves $1.8bn financing for Jordan National Water Carrier

    24 September 2026

    The US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) has approved a loan of up to $1bn and political-risk insurance of up to $800m for Jordan’s National Water Carrier Project.

    The $1bn loan will be provided to National Carrier Project Company (NCPC) to finance the design, development, construction, operation and maintenance of the project’s seawater desalination plant, water conveyance system and dedicated solar generation plant.

    The $800m of political-risk insurance will be provided to Paris-based investment and utility firms Meridiam and Suez, which are developing the project.

    The National Water Carrier, also known as the Aqaba-Amman Water Desalination and Conveyance Project, is being developed under a public-private partnership between Jordan’s Ministry of Water & Irrigation and NCPC, a special-purpose vehicle owned by Meridiam (90%) and Suez (10%).

    The project involves the design, development, construction, operation and maintenance of a seawater desalination plant, a water transmission system and dedicated renewable power generation facilities under a build-operate-transfer model.

    Jordan signed the project’s final technical and legal agreement with Meridiam in April, following months of negotiations. 

    The project’s capital cost was put at about $4.3bn, with total costs including financing estimated at $5.8bn.

    Financial close has not yet been completed. The project’s technical director said in July that the final agreements required for financial close were still being prepared, with construction expected to start in the fourth quarter of 2026. Water pumping is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter of 2030.

    Jordan’s cabinet approved a $97m financing agreement with the French Development Agency in July as the government continued to complete the project’s financing arrangements.

    The cabinet also approved a package of facilities and exemptions for the National Water Carrier Project on 17 September to help finalise start-up procedures for the project in the Aqaba Special Economic Zone.

    Jordan’s water needs

    The Aqaba-Amman water desalination and conveyance project will desalinate 300 million cubic metres of seawater annually. It will also include a 450-kilometre pipeline and pumping systems reaching elevations of up to 1,100 metres.

    The project is intended to help address Jordan’s severe water scarcity. As one of the world’s most water-stressed countries, Jordan consumes nearly 1 billion cubic metres of water a year.

    The domestic sector consumes approximately 50% of this, with only 61 cubic metres of water available per person a year, far below the global absolute water scarcity level of 500 cubic metres of water per capita.

    According to the government, the scheme will increase overall water supply by 40%, with per capita availability expected to rise to 110 cubic metres annually.

    Annual output from the Water Carrier Project will be nearly equivalent to the total storage capacity of all dams in the kingdom and almost three times the output of the Disi Water Project.

    The project is expected to supply about 40% of Jordan’s drinking water needs, with operations scheduled to begin in 2030. It will also include a 280MW solar photovoltaic plant in Al-Quweira covering roughly 30% of the project’s energy needs.

    Financing

    The government previously said the project had secured about $663m in grants from international partners, including the US, the European Union, Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, France, Italy, Japan and the Green Climate Fund.

    The Jordanian government is contributing $722m.

    Meridiam is arranging about $2.9bn in private sector financing from international financial institutions. The financing package includes support from institutions including the World Bank Group, European Investment Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction & Development, Islamic Development Bank, Proparco, Japan International Cooperation Agency and the Opec Fund for International Development.

    A consortium of Jordanian banks led by Housing Bank is providing up to $1.1bn in local financing, with the Social Security Investment Fund also taking an equity stake alongside Meridiam.

    Local manufacturing

    The project is also beginning to generate associated industrial investment.

    On 30 August, Jordan’s cabinet approved the establishment of a steel pipe manufacturing and coating plant in Aqaba with investment of up to JD120m ($169m). The plant is expected to allocate 50% of its production to the National Water Carrier and create about 420 jobs. Its output will also be available for future water, gas transmission and pumping projects.

    The Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority and the Ministry of Water & Irrigation also launched a dedicated single-window platform in August to streamline licensing and permitting for the National Water Carrier project.

    Once operational, the project is expected to remain under the PPP structure for 26 years before ownership transfers to the Jordanian government.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19943001/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Tecnimont breaks ground on Ruwais NGL train 5 project

    24 September 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Italian contractor Tecnimont has broken ground on the third phase of Adnoc Gas’ Rich Gas Development (RGD) programme, which involves building a fifth natural gas liquids (NGL) fractionation train at the Ruwais gas processing facility in Abu Dhabi.

    Adnoc Gas, the gas processing subsidiary of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Group), awarded Tecnimont a contract valued at $4.3bn in August to carry out engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works on the Ruwais NGL-5 project.

    Tecnimont’s parent company, Maire, previously said its scope of work under RGD phase 3 includes EPC activities for the fifth NGL fractionation unit – which will separate various hydrocarbon components – together with treatment and sweetening systems designed to remove impurities and ensure product quality.

    The scope also includes a regeneration gas treatment unit, a propane refrigeration system, ancillary systems and storage facilities. Once completed in 2030, the plant will have an output capacity of 23,000 tonnes a day (t/d), or about 8 million tonnes a year, Milan-headquartered Maire said.

    The detailed scope of work on the Ruwais NGL Train 5 project covers the EPC of the following units:

    • An NGL fractionation plant with a capacity of 22,000 t/d, including NGL fractionation facilities, downstream treatment units, sulphur recovery units, product storage and loading facilities, and associated utilities, flares and interconnection pipelines with existing facilities
    • Two propane liquefied petroleum gas storage tanks and one paraffinic naphtha storage tank
    • Buildings, including a central control building, outstations, substations and plant amenities
    • Electrical power connections. Power is to be sourced from the nearby Transco substation via a direct underground cable to the plot location

    Adnoc Gas requires the project’s feed to be updated based on the design of Ruwais NGL Train 4, which has an output capacity of 27,000 t/d and was commissioned in 2014.

    Alongside taking the final investment decision (FID) on RGD phase 3 in August, Adnoc Gas also announced it had reached FID on the second phase of the programme, with the two projects requiring a total investment of $8.2bn.

    The second phase of the RGD programme involves constructing a new gas processing train at the Habshan complex in Abu Dhabi. Adnoc Gas awarded the EPC contract for the project, valued at $3.9bn, to China-based Wison Engineering.

    Wison Engineering said the EPC contract for RGD phase 2 is the largest in its history. The total contract value is $4.04bn, the Hong Kong-listed company said, adding that the scope includes gas pipelines; separation and condensate stabilisation units; acid gas removal units; deep NGL recovery units; and a 220kV switch station.

    Phase 2 will add a new natural gas processing train at the Habshan facility, “expanding Adnoc Gas’ natural gas processing capacity, enhancing operational flexibility, and supporting the UAE’s expanding downstream and petrochemical sectors”, Adnoc Gas said.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19942556/main3743.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Hitachi wins Al-Mashaer Al-Muqadasah metro revamp

    24 September 2026

    Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) has signed a contract with Japan’s Hitachi Rail to revamp the Al-Mashaer Al-Muqadasah metro project in Mecca.

    The 18-kilometre line includes nine stations and has a design capacity of about 72,000 passengers an hour in each direction.

    The scope includes upgrades to improve reliability, operational performance and long-term maintainability.

    SAR chief executive Bashar Al-Malik and Hitachi Rail’s Middle East and Africa signalling and rail solutions vice-president, Carlo Piacenza, signed the contract.

    The rail line operates during the Hajj period and transports pilgrims between Mina, Muzdalifah and Arafat.

    It was developed to reduce reliance on buses, ease congestion on pilgrimage routes, and improve safety and crowd management during Hajj.

    The Saudi authorities procured the project on a fast-track basis to meet a fixed operational deadline for Hajj. It entered initial operation in 2010, with China Railway Construction Corporation acting as the main contractor for civil works and overall delivery.

    Hitachi Rail supplied key rail systems, including signalling and telecommunications. SAR subsequently assumed responsibility for the asset and has led later improvement and upgrade programmes.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19941437/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Contractor wins 6GW data centre campus infrastructure

    24 September 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dammam-based construction firm Al-Yamama Company for Trading & Contracting has won a contract to develop infrastructure for a planned 6GW hyperscale artificial intelligence (AI) data centre campus in Riyadh.

    The project will be delivered on an early contractor involvement (ECI) basis. Under the ECI process, selected contractors are required to submit methodologies and design proposals, after which one team will be selected to deliver the construction works.

    Saudi Arabia’s AI company Humain, owned by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), tendered the contract in May, as MEED reported.

    The scope of infrastructure work covers:

    • Construction of 380kV/132kV/33kV electrical distribution network, two substations with a capacity of 500MVA and 200MVA, bulk supply point (2,000MVA)
    • Water network and fire protection systems
    • Sewage treatment plant and wastewater network
    • Stormwater systems
    • Roads
    • Underground cable and fibre optic networks
    • Landscaping works

    The client is being supported by Canadian engineering firm Hatch, France’s Egis and US-based firm JLL.

    The development will be built on a 24-square-kilometre site in the Al-Saad area in east Riyadh. It will be delivered in two phases across six plots, each with a capacity of 1GW.

    Humain was launched in May last year to operate and invest across the AI value chain.

    Humain is building full-stack AI capabilities across four core areas: next-generation data centres, hyper-performance infrastructure and cloud platforms, and advanced AI models, including Allam.

    Also in May 2025, Humain signed preliminary deals with US chipmakers AMD and Nvidia to build multibillion-dollar advanced digital infrastructure in the kingdom.

    AMD said it will invest up to $10bn to deploy 500MW of AI compute capacity in Saudi Arabia over the next five years.

    In October 2025, PIF and Saudi Aramco signed a non-binding term sheet setting out key terms under which Aramco would acquire a minority stake in Humain, with PIF retaining majority ownership.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19940798/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal