meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Trump’s new trial in the Middle East

31 January 2025

 

This package also includes: Trump 2.0 targets technology

Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency on 20 January 2025 is anticipated to have profound impacts on the Middle East, focused on two key areas: US relations with Iran, and the interrelationship between the US, Israel and other regional actors.

Nevertheless, while the broad thrust of Trump’s goals in the Middle East is clear, the way he is likely to go about achieving them is hard to anticipate, with the mercurial president liable to shift his approach on a whim.

Iranian relations

The US’ relations with Iran, where Trump’s position appears to have softened in recent months, is a case in point.

While Trump was initially expected to reinstate a “maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions against Iran, he has lately made a series of nuanced statements. In October, he said: “I would like to see Iran be very successful. The only thing is, they can’t have a nuclear weapon.”

Although the US president has previously hinted at leveraging threats of force against Iran to compel it to restrain its nuclear and military capabilities, he has also hinted at avoiding a military approach and conspicuously sidelined US neoconservatives with harder stances on Iran within his administration.

A softer stance would also fall more in line with Trump’s historic aversion to US military entanglement, as well as his preference for negotiation and deal-making.

The region is furthermore in a different place than it was in Trump’s first term. Back then, he was supported by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but now those same Gulf allies have moderated their oppositional stances towards Iran and turned towards a more cooperative, business-oriented path forward.

There is no way to predict exactly how US relations with Iran are likely to play out over the course of Trump’s second term, but there could be significant room for manoeuvre for an Iranian government willing to put out the right signals and give the US president the symbolic wins he craves.

Israel agenda

One inevitable constant of US relations in the region is Washington’s largely unconditional backing for Israel, and Trump’s administration is expected to reaffirm his support for Israel.

The president’s first term was a triumph for pro-Israel policymakers in Washington, with Trump breaching long-standing US holding patterns of diplomatic ambiguity by recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and normalising the Israeli occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights.

Trump also oversaw the signing of the Abraham Accords that normalised Israeli relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, with the expectation that this diplomatic progress would continue.

Before the onset of the latest war in Gaza in late 2023, Washington had reportedly been on the cusp of finalising a normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia. The threat of this pending deal with Riyadh was one of the key triggers for Palestinian militant groups in Gaza to attack Israel on 7 October.

With the inauguration of Trump, there is every indication that the US administration intends to pick up where the deal with Saudi Arabia left off, as well as to potentially shift US policy in other key areas as well, such as its stance on the legitimacy of Israel’s illegal occupation of the West Bank.

In terms of brokering an agreement with Riyadh, Washington may encounter friction. After October 2023, the Saudi negotiations team indicated that it was keen to proceed with a deal with the US, while leaving the matter of relations with Israel aside, but this may not be to Washington’s taste.

Saudi Arabia’s official position on normalisation has since hardened considerably, with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan Al-Saud repeatedly stating this past year that there can be no normalisation without the realisation of Palestinian statehood. 

This firm position on Palestinian statehood could he hard for Riyadh to pull back from given the current geopolitical tensions in the region. There are nevertheless signs that the Trump administration is still eager to pursue renewed negotiations on the matter of normalisation with Saudi Arabia.

For the moment, the most pressing question for the region is whether Trump will continue to pressure Israel to abide by the terms of the ceasefire in Gaza, as well as its commitment to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon.

The president has laid partial claim to the Gaza ceasefire and expressed his hope that it will proceed to fruition in its second and third phases. 

He has also affirmed Israel’s need to withdraw from southern Lebanon – yet there the timeline has already slipped, raising the possibility that Trump, like Biden, could be soft on implementation.

There is no way to predict exactly how US relations with Iran are likely to play out

Transactional approach

More ominously, on 27 January, Trump mooted the possibility of “cleaning out” the population in Gaza by relocating 1.5 million Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan. Cairo and Amman have promptly dismissed the notion amid a storm of criticism over the unprincipled proposal.

The idea’s very suggestion by Trump points to a deeply transactional approach that jars with standing precepts of the Geneva Convention’s and international humanitarian law – which could cause problems down the road.

Looking ahead, the tenor of Trump’s engagement with the region in his second term is likely to be determined by his immediate reactions to these fast-moving geopolitical events. The Middle East presents major challenges that he will have to come to terms with in his first few months in office. 

Trump 2.0 targets technology

READ MEED’s YEARBOOK 2025

MEED’s 16th highly prized flagship Yearbook publication is available to read, offering subscribers analysis on the outlook for the Mena region’s major markets.

Published on 31 December 2024 and distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the MEED Yearbook 2025 includes:

> GIGAPROJECTS INDEX: Gigaproject spending finds a level
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13353127/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Gulf projects index enters 2026 upbeat

    27 January 2026

     

    MEED’s Gulf Projects Index expanded for the 10th consecutive month in the four weeks from 12 December to 9 January, rising by 1.3% or $62.5bn in value, driven by market developments in the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

    In the UAE, the market expanded by 2.8%, adding $31bn in value as a spate of new projects were initiated. These included the $8.1bn Mercedes-Benz Places real estate scheme announced by Dubai developer Binghatti and a $5bn expansion of Al-Maryah Island launched by Abu Dhabi’s Aldar and Mubadala. Dubai-based Aark Developers revealed plans for the $1.4bn Karl Lagerfeld Residences on Al-Marjan Island in Ras Al-Khaimah, while Adnoc Refining began front-end engineering and design for a $1.5bn naphtha-to-jet fuel project.

    In Saudi Arabia, the overall size of the market in terms of tracked projects expanded by 1.1% to $22.5bn – contrasting with the slight slackening of project award activity in the kingdom in 2025.

    The key projects behind the increase included an $11.6bn, 15-year commitment by China’s Xincheng Jiao Technology to invest in vehicle manufacturing in Jizan; an estimated $2.8bn solar plant to be developed by Bapco and Acwa Power; a $1.4bn Dammam data centre scheme under design by Khazna; and various other new project developments, alongside the tendering of four offshore oil and gas contracts by Saudi Aramco.

    The Bahraini market then saw the revival of the study process for the Qatar-Bahrain causeway, adding $4bn in active value to the index, while the Omani market witnessed the launch of the $4bn Muscat Marine, Art & Digital District project. 

    The other Gulf markets either recorded little change, or, in the case of Qatar and Iran, saw minor contractions. 

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15521064/main.gif
    John Bambridge
  • Sobha announces Sobha Sanctuary project in Dubai

    26 January 2026

    Dubai-based private real estate developer Sobha Realty has announced the launch of Sobha Sanctuary, its largest master-planned development in Dubai.

    The site covers about 37.5 million square feet and is planned to serve around 20,000 families.

    The project will include about 20,000 residential units, comprising 18,000 apartments and 2,000 villas.

    The development will be delivered in phases. The first phase includes 250 villas.

    Sobha Sanctuary is planned as a mixed-use development, with a hospital, two international schools, retail areas and a wellness centre.

    The development will also include a central park, as well as a community mall with retail and dining outlets. The park will include facilities such as football grounds, running tracks, padel courts and a skate park.

    Green corridors will connect the park to the wider site. A 6-kilometre (km) loop will run through the community, connecting to a larger mobility loop and a 9km wellness loop around the perimeter.

    The latest announcement follows the launch of two other projects in the UAE, as MEED reported in October last year.

    The developer announced the launch of Sobha AquaCrest, its second residential development within the Downtown Umm Al-Quwain masterplan.

    The development, located in the northern emirate of Umm Al-Quwain, comprises five residential towers with a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments and duplexes.

    Sobha is also planning to build a 450-metre-tall residential tower called Sobha SkyParks on Dubai’s Sheikh Zayed Road.

    The tower will have 109 floors and will be the tallest development in Sobha Realty’s portfolio.

    The development will offer more than 684 residential units.

    READ THE JANUARY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia courts real estate investment; EVs and battery production are key regional tech themes; Muscat holds a steady growth course despite headwinds

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the January 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDEX: UAE and Qatar emerge as markets to watch
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15512604/main.jpeg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Winter Games delay raises uncertainty for Saudi construction

    26 January 2026

    Commentary
    Yasir Iqbal
    Construction writer

    Saudi Arabia’s decision to postpone the 2029 Asian Winter Games at Trojena can be viewed as the first officially acknowledged crack in the kingdom’s gigaproject ambitions.

    Although the delay may be nothing more than pragmatic schedule management, in a market already sensitive to signals, an official postponement could have wider repercussions.

    The Asian Winter Games is an international event that requires a greater level of transparency than many other projects in the kingdom. The award of the games, and the decision to postpone it, was made following a formal process involving the Olympic Council of Asia, meaning what might otherwise have been managed quietly and internally becomes a global announcement. 

    The delay raises questions about the future of projects already under execution at Trojena. This includes projects from dams, tunnels and other major infrastructure works to high-profile assets such as the Vault. A postponed anchor event does not automatically mean construction stops, but it will trigger uncertainty across the supply chain that some packages could be deferred, resized or, in a worst-case scenario, cancelled.

    For the broader Saudi construction market, the delay heightens uncertainty about the future of other projects that may also be delayed. If investors and contractors start assuming that postponements are the new normal, bidding appetite, pricing and delivery risk premiums can all shift.

    The fear is that delaying the Winter Games will trigger other high-profile cancellations. While that might not necessarily be the case, it could accelerate a sorting process. Projects that are less central to the national interest may find themselves competing harder for capital.

    The industry will also point to the broader backdrop. According to data from regional project tracker MEED Projects, the value of contracts awarded on the kingdom's gigaprojects dropped by over 62% last year, from about $35bn in 2024 to $13bn in 2025, thus making the rescheduling feel more consequential.

    Many in the industry will also argue that the decision is logical when other major events to be hosted by Saudi Arabia are considered. When Trojena was selected as the venue for the Asian Winter Games in 2022, Saudi Arabia had yet to secure the rights to host Expo 2030 and the 2034 Fifa World Cup. Those two large-scale events are much more high profile than the Winter Games, and also reset national priorities along with plans for capital allocation.

    Ultimately, the Asian Winter Games are peripheral compared to the global weight of Expo 2030 and the 2034 World Cup. If confirmations on those two events had come before 2022, it is likely that Saudi Arabia would not have bid to host the event in the first place.

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15512027/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • UAE firm withdraws Yemen solar operations

    26 January 2026

     

    UAE-based Global South Utilities (GSU) has completed the handover of the Aden and Shabwa solar power plants to Yemen’s Public Electricity Corporation, following an official request by Yemeni authorities for the withdrawal of all UAE companies from the country.

    The move comes amid Yemen’s ongoing political fragmentation and security challenges, which have complicated foreign commercial and infrastructure operations in the country.

    In a letter dated 22 January 2026, GSU said it had evacuated all operations and maintenance teams from the 120MW Aden solar plant and the 53MW Shabwa solar plant.

    Both facilities were handed over fully operational and placed under the authority of the state-owned utility.

    GSU operates solar power plants in Yemen with a combined capacity of 173MW. The company said the withdrawal of its technical teams was carried out to ensure personnel safety and to enable a structured and responsible transfer of assets.

    “Global South Utilities did not suspend operations unilaterally or abruptly,” the company said. “Both power plants were handed over while operating at full technical capacity, under a formal handover process.”

    GSU added that continuing to operate large-scale power facilities without specialised technical teams on the ground would pose operational risks and would not meet internationally recognised standards for energy facility operations.

    Several projects are at advanced stages of development and have been paused following the company’s exit from the Yemeni market, including:

    • Al-Mokha – phase 2 (40MW): 85% complete
    • Al-Khokha (10MW): 80% complete
    • Hays (10MW): 75% complete
    • Socotra (10MW): 35% complete (civil works and procurement)
    • Aden expansion (120MW): 35% complete (civil works and procurement)

    In November, GSU announced $1bn-worth of new energy projects in Yemen to support the rebuilding of the country’s electricity sector.

    The programme was expected to be delivered through solar and wind energy projects, battery energy storage systems and the development of distribution networks.

    According to GSU, its $1bn energy project portfolio in Yemen covers 13 projects across six governorates, with a combined capacity exceeding 1,000MW.

    In August, GSU began work on a 120MW expansion of the Aden solar photovoltaic plant, doubling its capacity to 240MW. The plant began operations last year with a 120MW first phase.

    At the time, the company said phase two would begin commercial operations in 2026.

    READ THE JANUARY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia courts real estate investment; EVs and battery production are key regional tech themes; Muscat holds a steady growth course despite headwinds

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the January 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDEX: UAE and Qatar emerge as markets to watch
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15511888/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Saudi Arabia postpones 2029 Trojena Asian Winter Games

    26 January 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia has confirmed the postponement of the 2029 Asian Winter Games, which were scheduled to be held at the Trojena mountain destination in Neom, in the northwest of the kingdom.

    The confirmation came on 25 January, when the Olympic Council of Asia (OCA) and the Saudi Olympic & Paralympic Committee (SOPC) released a joint statement saying that they have agreed to indefinitely postpone the event.

    The OCA and SOPC have yet to announce a revised timeline or confirm whether another country will now host the event.

    In October 2022, Trojena was chosen to host the Asian Winter Games in 2029, as MEED previously reported.

    Construction is progressing on the Trojena Ski Village project; however, the overall infrastructure required for the venue to be ready remains behind schedule.

    The most recent edition of the Asian Winter Games was held in February last year in the city of Harbin, China.

    Japan held the first edition in 1986 and went on to host four of the previous editions of the event.

    China has hosted three editions, while South Korea and Kazakhstan have each hosted the games once.

    South Korea staged the Winter Youth Olympics in 2024, using mostly the same venues built for the 2018 Winter Olympics in the eastern province of Gangwon.

    In August last year, MEED reported that high-level discussions had started regarding changing the 2029 Asian Winter Games venue, possibly from Saudi Arabia to South Korea. 

    According to reports in South Korean media, citing a senior Korean Sport & Olympic Committee official, the OCA had contacted the Korean Sport & Olympic Committee about the possibility of hosting the event.

    The report added that the meeting was followed by an official letter sent by the OCA to South Korea.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15511718/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal