meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Trump’s new trial in the Middle East

31 January 2025

 

This package also includes: Trump 2.0 targets technology

Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency on 20 January 2025 is anticipated to have profound impacts on the Middle East, focused on two key areas: US relations with Iran, and the interrelationship between the US, Israel and other regional actors.

Nevertheless, while the broad thrust of Trump’s goals in the Middle East is clear, the way he is likely to go about achieving them is hard to anticipate, with the mercurial president liable to shift his approach on a whim.

Iranian relations

The US’ relations with Iran, where Trump’s position appears to have softened in recent months, is a case in point.

While Trump was initially expected to reinstate a “maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions against Iran, he has lately made a series of nuanced statements. In October, he said: “I would like to see Iran be very successful. The only thing is, they can’t have a nuclear weapon.”

Although the US president has previously hinted at leveraging threats of force against Iran to compel it to restrain its nuclear and military capabilities, he has also hinted at avoiding a military approach and conspicuously sidelined US neoconservatives with harder stances on Iran within his administration.

A softer stance would also fall more in line with Trump’s historic aversion to US military entanglement, as well as his preference for negotiation and deal-making.

The region is furthermore in a different place than it was in Trump’s first term. Back then, he was supported by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but now those same Gulf allies have moderated their oppositional stances towards Iran and turned towards a more cooperative, business-oriented path forward.

There is no way to predict exactly how US relations with Iran are likely to play out over the course of Trump’s second term, but there could be significant room for manoeuvre for an Iranian government willing to put out the right signals and give the US president the symbolic wins he craves.

Israel agenda

One inevitable constant of US relations in the region is Washington’s largely unconditional backing for Israel, and Trump’s administration is expected to reaffirm his support for Israel.

The president’s first term was a triumph for pro-Israel policymakers in Washington, with Trump breaching long-standing US holding patterns of diplomatic ambiguity by recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and normalising the Israeli occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights.

Trump also oversaw the signing of the Abraham Accords that normalised Israeli relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, with the expectation that this diplomatic progress would continue.

Before the onset of the latest war in Gaza in late 2023, Washington had reportedly been on the cusp of finalising a normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia. The threat of this pending deal with Riyadh was one of the key triggers for Palestinian militant groups in Gaza to attack Israel on 7 October.

With the inauguration of Trump, there is every indication that the US administration intends to pick up where the deal with Saudi Arabia left off, as well as to potentially shift US policy in other key areas as well, such as its stance on the legitimacy of Israel’s illegal occupation of the West Bank.

In terms of brokering an agreement with Riyadh, Washington may encounter friction. After October 2023, the Saudi negotiations team indicated that it was keen to proceed with a deal with the US, while leaving the matter of relations with Israel aside, but this may not be to Washington’s taste.

Saudi Arabia’s official position on normalisation has since hardened considerably, with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan Al-Saud repeatedly stating this past year that there can be no normalisation without the realisation of Palestinian statehood. 

This firm position on Palestinian statehood could he hard for Riyadh to pull back from given the current geopolitical tensions in the region. There are nevertheless signs that the Trump administration is still eager to pursue renewed negotiations on the matter of normalisation with Saudi Arabia.

For the moment, the most pressing question for the region is whether Trump will continue to pressure Israel to abide by the terms of the ceasefire in Gaza, as well as its commitment to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon.

The president has laid partial claim to the Gaza ceasefire and expressed his hope that it will proceed to fruition in its second and third phases. 

He has also affirmed Israel’s need to withdraw from southern Lebanon – yet there the timeline has already slipped, raising the possibility that Trump, like Biden, could be soft on implementation.

There is no way to predict exactly how US relations with Iran are likely to play out

Transactional approach

More ominously, on 27 January, Trump mooted the possibility of “cleaning out” the population in Gaza by relocating 1.5 million Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan. Cairo and Amman have promptly dismissed the notion amid a storm of criticism over the unprincipled proposal.

The idea’s very suggestion by Trump points to a deeply transactional approach that jars with standing precepts of the Geneva Convention’s and international humanitarian law – which could cause problems down the road.

Looking ahead, the tenor of Trump’s engagement with the region in his second term is likely to be determined by his immediate reactions to these fast-moving geopolitical events. The Middle East presents major challenges that he will have to come to terms with in his first few months in office. 

Trump 2.0 targets technology

READ MEED’s YEARBOOK 2025

MEED’s 16th highly prized flagship Yearbook publication is available to read, offering subscribers analysis on the outlook for the Mena region’s major markets.

Published on 31 December 2024 and distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the MEED Yearbook 2025 includes:

> GIGAPROJECTS INDEX: Gigaproject spending finds a level
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13353127/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Expo 2030 Riyadh construction gathers pace

    14 July 2026

     

    Construction activity at the Expo 2030 Riyadh site is accelerating, with Expo Riyadh 2030 Company (ERC) moving to award its first major vertical contracts and advancing infrastructure works across a programme that will eventually require between 50,000 and 70,000 workers at peak.

    Saudi Arabia’s first World Expo runs from 1 October 2030 to 31 March 2031. Riyadh was awarded the hosting rights in November 2023, winning the vote in the first round, and the event is projected to attract more than 40 million visits over its six months. Beyond the event itself, the project carries significant economic weight: ERC, wholly owned by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), expects the construction phase and legacy development to contribute around $64bn to Saudi GDP and generate approximately 171,000 direct and indirect jobs, with the live event contributing a further $5.6bn.

    The masterplan covers 6 million square metres to the north of Riyadh, adjacent to the future King Salman International airport. After the event closes, ERC plans to transform the site into a global village combining retail, food and beverage and an international residential community – meaning every asset being built now is being designed with its post-Expo purpose in mind.

    Infrastructure works under way

    The earliest works on site – bulk earthworks including cut, fill and levelling – have been completed by local contractor Binyah, with millions of cubic metres of material moved to bring the site to design level.

    The programme has now moved into utility infrastructure, which has been split into two packages. Nesma is constructing the primary utility networks – the main corridor running around the site carrying high-voltage power lines, water mains, sewerage and communications – while Al-Yamama is delivering the secondary networks that bring services into the central event area, with construction expected to commence this month.

    Power has been a priority. ERC has worked with the Saudi electricity sector since 2025 to develop the site’s demand profile, and an agreement for permanent supply has been signed. Design and procurement of the main substation and primary power infrastructure are under way, with a contract award expected within weeks and full permanent power – at a capacity of 400MW – targeted approximately 18 months ahead of the event.

    An initial 25MW supply to power site operations and support testing and commissioning is already installed and ready to be energised.

    On water, ERC is finalising an agreement with the Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC), the Saudi Water Authority and the National Water Company, with an announcement expected in Q3 and construction targeted to start in 2027.

    Transport and connectivity

    With more than 42 million visits anticipated over the six-month event, transport connectivity is treated as central to the project’s success. ERC is working with RCRC on a mobility plan that covers several modes. Two road enhancement projects around the airport and along King Salman Road are expected to be announced shortly, increasing capacity on the main arteries approaching the site.

    A dedicated Expo metro station on Riyadh Metro Line 4 – which connects the airport to the city centre – will be built within the site boundary, forming the first stop from the airport towards Riyadh, and providing a direct link for international arrivals.

    A park-and-ride programme using dedicated bus lanes will serve domestic visitors parking at locations across the city.

    A hotel within the fenced Expo site is also nearing contract, with a design agreement close to signature. ERC says the intention is to give guests staying on site “the full experience from early morning when the gates open until late at night when the gates close” – an offer it expects will prove particularly popular with international visitors.

    Pavilions and vertical assets

    The Expo's masterplan is organised around five districts, each echoing one of the event’s sub-themes under its overarching theme of Foresight for Tomorrow: planet, people, technology, collaboration and culture. ERC is responsible for delivering a signature pavilion in each district, plus an iconic structure in the Global Collaboration district and a convention centre intended to serve both the event and Riyadh’s long-term conference market.

    The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) Pavilion, one of the centrepieces of the event, is also under ERC’s delivery responsibility. Design work is progressing across all these assets with engineering firms taking concepts through to schematic and detailed design.

    For international participating countries, this edition of the Expo marks a significant departure from previous editions. Rather than grouping lower-income countries into shared halls, all participants will have their own national pavilion.

    “In this edition, we are following the ‘one nation, one pavilion’ model, whereby each country has its own pavilion, and we have a dedicated budget to help up to 100 eligible countries deliver those pavilions,” says Murad Al-Sayed, ERC’s chief delivery officer.

    Contracting strategy

    The contracting approach for vertical assets is being calibrated to the complexity of each building. Less complex assets will be procured on a design-and-build basis.

    For the most complex – the KSA Pavilion and the iconic structure – ERC is using a two-stage model, separating enabling works and substructure from the main contract. This allows construction to begin on site while the main package is finalised and brings contractors into the design process earlier.

    “We are adopting different contracting strategies depending on the asset – its size, complexity and anticipated construction duration,” Al-Sayed says.

    For the KSA Pavilion, enabling and substructure works are already in the market, with an award targeted in Q3, allowing construction to start before the main contract – for which nine tier-one contractors, local and international, have been invited to bid – is awarded towards the end of the year. Packages for the remaining signature pavilions are expected to follow later this year and into 2026.

    On commercial terms, ERC is favouring lump-sum contracts where design maturity allows, with provisional sum or remeasurement provisions used where elements remain in development. A final public realm package, covering site-wide finishing works, remains under design and is expected to be tendered in 2026, sequenced deliberately to be installed last and once only ahead of the event.

    Bidding appetite from the market has been strong. ERC says all tenders issued to date have attracted healthy numbers of qualified bids, reflecting a contracting market that has eased over the past 18 months as several gigaprojects elsewhere in the kingdom have reached completion or had their timelines revised.

    Programme and supply chain

    ERC is targeting completion of major construction by the end of 2029, leaving six to nine months for finishing, snagging and operational testing. To ease the build programme for international participants, ERC is making plots available up to 36 months before the event – around nine to 12 months longer than the industry norm – giving countries more schedule float to complete their pavilions.

    On the supply chain, ERC is leaning heavily on local manufacturers for current infrastructure work, covering piping, cabling, electrical equipment and bulk materials. As construction moves above ground and international participants begin work on their pavilions from 2027 onwards, ERC will make its database of prequalified local contractors, suppliers and consultants available to them through a dedicated one-stop shop – a registration exercise already under way and expected to remain open until the event itself.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17664502/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Jordan tenders IPP8 power project

    14 July 2026

    Jordan’s National Electric Power Company (Nepco) has issued a tender for a contract to develop the 700MW combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power project known as independent power project 8 (IPP8).

    Companies understood to have prequalified include France’s EDF, Saudi Arabia’s Acwa and Egypt’s Orascom Construction. Bids are due in July, although the market expects the closing date may be extended.

    MEED reported in November last year that Nepco had invited developers to submit prequalification documents for IPP8. The project will be developed on a build, own and operate (BOO) basis and will supply power to the national grid under a 25-year agreement.

    Natural gas will serve as the primary fuel, with light distillate as backup. The facility will be connected to Nepco’s 132kV/400kV transmission infrastructure, which will be built separately.

    In April, MEED reported that Nepco had signed an agreement to establish a natural gas supply point for the 700MW IPP7. The agreement was signed with Fajr Jordanian-Egyptian for Natural Gas Transmission and Supply to support fuel provision for the CCGT plant.

    The plant will be developed in partnership with Etihad Development Company, a subsidiary of the UAE’s Etihad Water & Electricity (EtihadWE), following recent approval by the Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources.

    The IPP7 plant is expected to meet about 10% of Jordan’s electricity demand once operational. It is also intended to enhance the reliability and efficiency of the national power system.

    The project is scheduled to become operational between 2027 and 2028.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17662814/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Modon awards $200m Ras El-Hekma infrastructure deal

    14 July 2026

    Abu Dhabi-based developer Modon Holding has awarded a E£10bn ($200m) contract for infrastructure development works in the Wadi Yemm district of Ras El-Hekma, a planned new city on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast.

    The contract was awarded to a joint venture of Egypt’s Rowad Modern Engineering and Lebanon's Consolidated Contractors Company.

    Wadi Yemm is the first of the 17 planned precincts to move into active delivery.

    It is a mixed-use cultural and hospitality district, anchored by Ras El-Hekma Lighthouse and a 10,000-seat amphitheatre, designed to host cultural and entertainment programming.

    The latest contract award at Wadi Yemm follows the appointment of local contractor Hassan Allam Construction to build the Montage hotel and branded residences project.

    Montage Ras El-Hekma includes 200 guestrooms and suites, along with 96 branded villas.

    Ras El-Hekma is located on a spur of land on Egypt’s northern Mediterranean coastline, about 240 kilometres west of Alexandria.

    Abu Dhabi-based holding company ADQ appointed Modon Holding as the master developer for the Ras El-Hekma project in 2024. Modon will oversee the overall development, which covers more than 170 million square metres (sq m).

    Modon will develop the first phase of the project, covering 50 million sq m. The remaining 120 million sq m will be developed in partnership with private developers, under the supervision of the recently established ADQ subsidiary Ras El-Hekma Urban Development Project Company and Modon.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17661721/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • AtkinsRealis wins key Riyadh infrastructure roles

    14 July 2026

    Canadian engineering firm AtkinsRealis has been awarded a contract by the Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) to support the operation and expansion of the Riyadh Metro and oversee the delivery of major road infrastructure projects across the capital.

    AtkinsRealis will provide engineering consultancy, project management, construction supervision and technical oversight for ongoing works on the Riyadh Metro.

    The agreement was signed during the Saudi Arabia-Canada Investment Forum in Jeddah, held on the sidelines of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to the kingdom.

    The company will also supervise a portfolio of strategic road development schemes designed to strengthen Riyadh’s wider transport network.

    AtkinsRealis also recently secured a contract to deliver lead design services for the Place & Planet Pavilion at the Expo 2030 Riyadh site.

    The contract was awarded by Expo 2030 Riyadh Company, which is tasked with delivering the Expo 2030 Riyadh venue.

    AtkinsRealis will deliver the full architectural and engineering design for the pavilion, coordinate all relevant design disciplines and embed sustainable design principles throughout.

    The Place & Planet Pavilion is anticipated to be a key attraction at Expo 2030 Riyadh.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17660065/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Clarifications begin for Saudi Landbridge Riyadh section

    14 July 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) has begun post-tender clarifications with bidders for a contract to design and build the Riyadh Rail Link, a new north-to-south railway line across the capital.

    MEED understands that the latest round of clarifications with bidders was held last week.

    Contractors submitted their commercial proposals on 30 June, as MEED reported.

    The bidders include:

    • China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation / Al-Ayuni Investment & Contracting (China/local)
    • Nesma & Partners / China Harbour Engineering Company (local/China)
    • Al-Rashid Trading & Contracting / IC Ictas Construction / Saipem (local/Turkiye/Spain)
    • Saudi Binladin Group (local)

    The scope includes a 35-kilometre double-track line connecting SAR’s North-South Railway to the Eastern Railway network.

    Issued on 29 January, the tender also covers the procurement, construction and installation of associated infrastructure, including viaducts, civil works, utility diversions/installations, signalling systems and other related works.

    Once delivered, the Riyadh Rail Link is expected to become a key component of the Saudi Landbridge railway.

    In January, SAR said it would deliver the Saudi Landbridge project through a “new mechanism” by 2034, after failing to reach an agreement with a Chinese consortium to construct it, as MEED reported.

    In an interview with local media, SAR CEO Bashar Bin Khalid Al-Malik said the consortium failed to meet local content requirements, and that the project would instead be delivered in several phases under a different procurement model.

    Negotiations have been under way between Saudi Arabia and China-backed investors interested in developing the scheme through a public-private partnership (PPP). Al-Malik put the project cost at about SR100bn ($26.6bn).

    Overall, it comprises more than 1,500km of new track. A core element is a 900km railway between Riyadh and Jeddah, providing the capital with direct freight access to King Abdullah Port on the Red Sea.

    Other key elements include upgrading the existing Riyadh-Dammam line, a bypass around the capital known as the Riyadh Link, and a connection between King Abdullah Port and Yanbu.

    The Saudi Landbridge is one of the kingdom’s most anticipated project programmes. First announced in 2004, it was put on hold in 2010 before being revived a year later. Rights-of-way issues, route alignment and the high cost have been among the main stumbling blocks.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17659657/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal