meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Trump factor weighs on the region’s economies

2 January 2025

 

If 2024 was a slow road back to stabilisation for economies in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region, with lower interest rates and generally improved fiscal positions providing some ballast against tumultuous geopolitical risk events, the coming year portends yet more instability with the return to the White House of Donald Trump. This will, for good or ill, have a decisive impact on the region’s economic trajectory. 

The region is looking at a more rapid economic growth rate in 2025 than the previous year. The World Bank, which estimated real GDP growth in the Mena region of 2.2% in 2024, sees region-wide growth at 3.8% in 2025, with Gulf economies driving this improvement. 

This reflects the gradual phasing out of voluntary oil production cuts starting from December 2024. 

Mena oil importers will see real GDP growth expand from just 1.3% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025, says the World Bank. 

Interest rates are a key ingredient in the mix, linking to the second Trump presidency, with its likely ramp-up of  global trade-war pressures. 

If the president-elect follows through on his tariff plans, which range from a proposed 60% on Chinese imports to 20% on the rest of the world, it will trigger higher inflation, thereby slowing the Federal Reserve’s moves to cut interest rates.

So while Mena exports to the US are unlikely to suffer direct fallout from planned tariffs – according to consultancy Capital Economics, the share of Mena goods exports going to the US stood at just 3.5% this decade – it is the secondary effects that could knock regional economies off their stride.

“If we do get the tariffs, and that leads to higher inflation in the US, that also means there will be tighter monetary policy in the Gulf countries with dollar pegs than would otherwise be the case,” says James Swanston, Mena economist at Capital Economics.

The possibility of a stronger dollar in 2025 means that for those economies with dollar pegs, their domestic industries could become less competitive. This jars with the thinking behind regional economic diversification schemes such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which are predicated on developing manufacturing sectors that are mainly export-oriented.

Regional fortitude

The largest Gulf economies should at least be well positioned to withstand such headwinds, even if a trade war hits the global economy. According to the World Bank, a lower interest rate environment, together with further investment and structural reform initiatives, will yield non-oil growth of more than 4% in the region’s two largest economies, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This – plus higher oil production – should be enough to offset any loss of momentum from lower oil prices and weaker fiscal balances.

Saudi Arabia is expected to show steady growth in 2025, with its Q3 2024 average GDP growth of 2.8% underscoring the kingdom’s stronger performance. However, the robust spending of past years is giving way to a more conservative fiscal approach, and that will inevitably impact project activity.

Riyadh’s 2025 pre-budget statement revealed a tougher fiscal stance for 2025, with anticipation of a deficit of 2.9%. With revenues expected to be 3.5% weaker in year-on year terms in 2025, this will mean reduced spending – around 3% lower than that outlined in the 2024 budget. 

“Saudi Arabia is being a bit more prudent about how they spend their money,” says Swanston. 

While there will be continued support for current spending, and for the official gigaprojects, capital expenditure will shoulder the burden of cuts. This will likely feed through to weaker non-oil GDP growth.

The UAE should see comparatively stronger growth momentum in 2025, driven by a combination of healthier dynamics in its touchstone real estate and tourism sectors, and the impact of infrastructure investment programmes. 

NBK Economic Research sees the UAE non-oil economy enjoying another year of 4%-plus growth in 2025, possibly as high as 5.1%. However, the bank’s economists offer a note of caution, as this is still below the 7.2% annual average growth rate the government requires to achieve the Vision 2031 target of a doubling in GDP by 2031.

On the fiscal front, the UAE is looking at a better situation in 2025. “The UAE has diversified its revenues to the point where non-oil revenues are larger than oil revenues. So, even if oil prices turn negative, they still wouldn’t run a deficit,” says Swanston.

Qatar is maintaining a tight fiscal policy, but from late 2025 it will begin to feel the effects of a significant predicted revenue boost when the first phase of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) expansion comes on stream. This will eventually add 40% to the country’s existing LNG export capacity of 77 million tonnes a year.

Kuwait, meanwhile, is set to run continued budget deficits, although the country’s non-oil economy has emerged from two years of negative growth and is forecast by NBK Research to expand by 2.6% in 2025. But Kuwait faces structural challenges, including a low investment rate and the need for fiscal consolidation, which will absorb policymakers in 2025. 

Oman, in contrast, looks to be in a better position than in previous years. According to an Article IV assessment released by the Washington-headquartered IMF in November, reform implementation under Oman Vision 2040 is proceeding decisively, along with initiatives to improve the business environment, attract large-scale investments and empower small and medium-sized enterprises. 

The sultanate’s economy continues to expand. Growth, says the IMF, is set to rebound starting in 2025, supported by higher hydrocarbons production and the continued acceleration of non-hydrocarbons growth. 

Bahrain faces a challenge when it comes to containing the country’s rising debt-to-GDP ratio, which grew from 100% in 2020 to just under 130% in 2024. The country needs to press ahead with fiscal consolidation moves if it is to improve the debt position.

Wider region

Outside the GCC, the picture will vary in 2025. Egypt has realistic expectations of a better year ahead, with falls in inflation and interest rates providing relief after a tough 2024. But foreign investors may feel a note of alarm at recent indications from President Abdul Fattah El-Sisi that the challenges associated with the country’s reform programme – a hint at the tough impact of reform on Egyptian consumers – might lead it to review its existing IMF deal. 

Tunisia presents a similar challenge. President Kais Saied’s proposed bill stripping the central bank of its ability to set interest rates and influence exchange rate policy without government consent is unlikely to encourage investors. 

In Egypt at least, there are silver linings that should assure investor confidence, even if the government’s commitment to reform wavers. “When it comes to the debt issue, everything’s in a pretty good place in Egypt,” says Swanston. 

“Yes, interest service payments on the debt have risen over the past 12 months, and the feed-through means that they will still be paying quite high debt servicing costs over the next six months. But yields are coming down in terms of its dollar-denominated debt. Worries about default are not as strong as before.”  

President El-Sisi may also find support from other sources. Given his previous close ties with the Trump administration in 2016-20, there may be a greater willingness in Washington to disburse funds to such an integral partner of US foreign policy, particularly when it has been buffeted by the Gaza conflict and the impact of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

Iraq’s economic fortunes remain bound up with the price of oil, which accounts for 90% of state revenues. The IMF has forecast a 4.1% GDP growth rate for Iraq in 2025, reflecting in part its surprising resilience to regional conflicts. However, lower oil prices may yet erode the country’s economic momentum. 

Progress on major projects such as the Development Road would at least suggest prime minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani’s government is focused on long-term delivery and tackling Iraq’s overreliance on hydrocarbons exports. 

Meanwhile, Iraq’s larger neighbour Iran, which saw GDP growth increase to 5% in the 2023-24 Iranian year, faces still bigger challenges linked to Trump’s return. It can expect to face a much tighter sanctions regime on its oil sector in 2025, with efforts to curb its ability to sell its crude oil on international markets expected to gain traction. The effects of these moves are still in the balance. 

The positive news for Tehran is that several of its crude buyers appear to be undaunted by a reimposition of deeper curbs on exports. For example, Chinese refiners have been importing Iranian oil to the tune of 1.5 million barrels a day. The country’s seeming imperviousness to international financial pressures could undercut the impact of a beefed-up US sanctions regime, although few would relish being in the shoes of Iranian economic policymakers right now.

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13211797/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Ashghal tenders Mekeines-Umm Bab link road

    30 October 2026

     

    Qatar’s Public Works Authority (Ashghal) has tendered a contract for the design and construction of the Mekeines to Umm Bab Link Road and associated infrastructure.

    The tender was issued on 29 October, with a bid submission deadline of 22 December.

    The scope comprises:

    • Highway works, including main carriageways, access roads, grade-separated ramps, junctions and tie-ins to existing networks
    • Dedicated non-motorised user facilities, footpaths and shared-use cycle paths
    • Structural installations, including camel underpasses, a QatarEnergy culvert and gateway monumentation
    • Extensive dry and wet utilities, encompassing Kahramaa potable water and electrical transmission networks, surface water drainage, street lighting and dedicated communication networks for Ooredoo, the Qatar National Broadband Network and the Qatar Armed Forces

    Under the scope of work, the appointed contractor will execute full design verification and turnkey construction under Ashghal’s standard Building and Engineering Design and Build General Conditions of Contract (2018 Edition) on a lump-sum basis. Engineering subconsultants must hold Grade 1 or International classification with the Ministry of Municipality across civil, architectural, mechanical and electrical engineering disciplines.

    The contract stipulates an execution period of 1,260 calendar days (3.5 years) from the commencement date, followed by a 400-day maintenance liability period. 

      The project is open to local and international contractors classified as Grade A in roads specialisation by Qatar’s Ministry of Finance (MoF).

      Foreign firms may participate independently or within a joint venture, provided the joint venture leader holds the requisite classification, by registering through the MoF e-procurement portal with attested equivalent certification from their home countries.

      The planned corridor is located within Al-Rayyan Municipality across Zones 82 to 84 in the Al-Sheehaniya area.

      At its eastern end, the link road begins about 40 kilometres southwest of central Doha, tying into the Salwa Road Interchange 42. At the western terminus, it connects to the roundabout adjacent to Umm Bab on the Abu Samra to Dukhan road (Route 39). 

      The link road serves as a critical logistics corridor connecting western settlements, residential districts and industrial installations, including concession areas operated by QatarEnergy.

      The western 7.5km of the alignment passes directly through the QatarEnergy District, where the corridor runs parallel to active oil and gas pipelines and includes a designated gateway monument.

      https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21041383/main.gif
      Yasir Iqbal
    • Contractors prepare bids for Petro Rabigh bottom-of-the-barrel project

      30 October 2026

       

      Contractors are preparing proposals for Saudi Arabia’s Rabigh Refining & Petrochemical Company (Petro Rabigh) for a major project to increase output and improve the efficiency of its integrated refining and petrochemicals complex in Rabigh, on the kingdom’s Red Sea coast.

      Petro Rabigh’s downstream complex, which is majority-owned by Saudi Aramco, includes a topping refinery with a 340,000-barrel-a-day (b/d) crude-distillation unit, a 47,000 b/d hydrotreater, a 12 million-cubic-feet-a-day hydrogen plant, a 75,000 b/d naphtha Merox unit and a 60,000 b/d kerosene Merox unit. The complex also includes supporting utilities, product tankage and a marine terminal.

      The main objective of the bottom-of-the-barrel project is to convert low-value, high-sulphur fuel oil and heavy-residue streams – which account for about 20% to 22% of refinery output – into higher-value, cleaner products, including diesel and lighter distillates.

      Petro Rabigh aims to achieve residue-conversion capacity of about 64,000 to 75,000 b/d by adding integrated fuel-oil upgrading and diesel-treatment units.

      The company issued the main tender for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works earlier this year. Contractors have until 19 November to submit proposals, sources told MEED.

      The following companies are understood to be among those bidding for the project:

      • CTCI Corporation (Taiwan)
      • JGC Corporation (Japan)
      • Larsen & Toubro (India) / Technip Energies (France)
      • Tecnicas Reunidas (Spain)

      The overall scope of work on the project covers the construction of the following units:

      • A light-naphtha isomerisation unit
      • A deasphalting and dewaxing unit
      • An ebullated-bed processing unit
      • A sulphur block, comprising sulphur-recovery, acid-gas-removal, sour-water-stripping and sulphur-forming units
      • Sales-gas allocation facilities and associated pipeline works
      • Utilities outside battery limits
      • Auxiliary piping modifications
      • Utility and hydrocarbon tie-ins

      Petro Rabigh appointed Australia-headquartered Worley last year to carry out front-end engineering and design (feed) work for the bottom-of-the-barrel project.

      MEED also reported that Petro Rabigh appointed Worley to provide engineering and project-management consultancy (PMC) services for the project in the first quarter of this year.

      Under the contract, Worley will carry out engineering studies and PMC functions. It will also support the development of cost estimates, project-specific execution procedures and technical procedures in line with Saudi Aramco guidelines. The work covers both the design-basis scoping-paper stage and the subsequent feed stage.

      Petro Rabigh will draw on Worley’s expertise in design, procurement and processing technologies, including light-naphtha isomerisation; vacuum-residue processing through deasphalting and dewaxing; an ebullated-bed configuration integrated with the diesel-hydrotreating section; and unconverted-oil hydrotreatment.

      Worley recently confirmed its contract award from Petro Rabigh, saying it will deliver engineering, project management, procurement support and related consultancy services for projects across its client’s portfolio.

      The scope includes developing design-basis documents, conducting technical evaluations, preparing cost estimates, supporting feed tender packages and providing detailed engineering and execution-phase support as projects advance through development and delivery.

      The services will support the evaluation and development of potential new facilities and infrastructure across the complex, including process units, utilities, sulphur recovery facilities and associated infrastructure.

      “The work will help Petro Rabigh advance future projects aimed at enhancing the long-term value and performance of its refining and petrochemicals operations,” Worley said in a statement on 28 October.

      Separately, Petro Rabigh awarded US-based KBR a 10-year maintenance contract in February to support its polymer plants in Rabigh.

      KBR’s Technology Led Industrial Solutions business line will execute the operations and maintenance contract, sources told MEED. The business operates within the Houston-headquartered company’s Technology Solutions portfolio.

      In March 2024, Petro Rabigh also awarded KBR a similar five-year asset-condition-monitoring contract. Under that programme, KBR is providing predictive-maintenance services at Petro Rabigh’s main plant.

      https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21032785/main.jpg
      Indrajit Sen
    • Contractors submit Riyadh Expo KSA pavilion bids

      30 October 2026

       

      Contractors submitted bids on 25 October for a contract to design and build the Saudi Arabia pavilion at the Expo 2030 Riyadh site.

      The facility will include exhibition halls, VIP and protocol areas, event and performance spaces, meeting rooms, food and retail outlets, and back-of-house facilities.

      The pavilion will host exhibitions, cultural and commercial showcases and official events throughout the six-month expo.

      External public realm works are also included.

      Expo 2030 Riyadh Company (ERC), tasked with delivering the Expo 2030 Riyadh venue, issued the main tender on 19 May, as MEED exclusively reported.

      Earlier this week, ERC appointed UK-based Mace as procurement advisory consultant for Expo 2030 Riyadh, supporting procurement activities across the programme.

      Under the appointment, Mace will provide procurement services and advise on the management and delivery of procurement activities, with the aim of supporting the expo’s wider programme objectives.

      Expo 2030 Riyadh will run from October 2030 to March 2031 with the theme Foresight for Tomorrow, with host authorities projecting approximately 42 million visits.

      The masterplan covers 6 square kilometres, making it one of the largest sites ever designated for a World Expo event.

      Situated north of the Saudi capital, the site is located near the future King Salman International airport and will provide direct access to Riyadh landmarks.

      The Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth vehicle, launched Expo 2030 Riyadh Company – a wholly owned subsidiary – in June 2025 to build and operate facilities for Expo 2030.

      https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21031590/main.jpg
      Yasir Iqbal
    • Oman announces $790m industrial investment deals

      30 October 2026

      Oman’s Public Authority for Special Economic Zones and Free Zones has signed 28 investment agreements worth more than RO304m ($790m) for new projects and expansions across the country’s special economic zones, free zones and industrial cities.

      The agreements cover more than 2 million square metres (sq m) of land and span industrial manufacturing, food production, logistics, recycling and commercial activities.

      About $383.6m of the investment has been allocated to industrial cities operated by the Public Establishment for Industrial Estates (Madayn). Sohar Free Zone accounted for $152m, followed by the Special Economic Zone at Duqm (Sezad) with $143.1m, Salalah Free Zone with $85.6m and Khazaen Economic City with more than $27m.

      The projects are expected to support Oman’s efforts to diversify its economy, expand industrial production and attract private investment in line with Oman Vision 2040.

      Investment deals

      In Sohar Industrial City, Atlas Steel will invest more than $291.1m in a plant producing iron and steel products on a site of about 440,000 sq m.

      Fujian Mancheng Industries & Investment will invest $52m in a ceramics facility covering more than 241,000 sq m. Other investments in Madayn’s industrial cities include an $18.2m phosphate and nitrogen fertiliser plant planned by Gulf Company for Organic and Biological Fertilisers in Raysut, as well as projects involving structural metal products, paper and corrugated cardboard, and oil and gas equipment and services in Raysut, Ibri and Nizwa.

      In Sohar Free Zone, Sohar Automotive & Advanced Industries Company will invest $98.8m in an automobile assembly complex covering 317,000 sq m. The complex aims to attract vehicle manufacturers, automotive supply-chain companies and advanced-manufacturing businesses.

      Voltamp High Voltage Transformers has announced a $39m investment in a plant that will produce power and electrical-distribution transformers for regional and international markets.

      Lalan Middle East will invest a further $3.9m to expand its medical-device manufacturing facility.

      ALSO READ: Oman’s Madayn prepares $637m investment drive

      In Sezad, Al-Jazir Feed Plant will invest $104m in a shrimp-feed facility to support an integrated shrimp-farming project.

      In Salalah Free Zone, Al-Nawras Industries will invest $50m in a steel-structures manufacturing facility, while Integrated Gypsum Company will invest $20m in gypsum-products production. Marai Dhofar will invest $15.6m in the production of Italian cheeses and other dairy products.

      Projects in Khazaen Economic City include a plant by Aleemit International Services to manufacture electric-vehicle chargers and components, with an investment of more than $8.8m, and a $6.5m facility by Joger Modular Building Technologies to produce precast-concrete building components.

      Additional investments in Khazaen include construction materials, ready-mix concrete, industrial units, logistics facilities and warehouses.

      https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21016368/main.jpg
      Indrajit Sen
    • Sabic swings back to profit in Q3 with $224m net income

      30 October 2026

      Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

      Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) returned to profitability in the third quarter of the year, reporting adjusted net income of SR840m ($224m) as revenue and earnings improved from the previous quarter.

      The Saudi chemicals giant had posted an adjusted net loss of $100m in the second quarter.

      Revenue increased 14% on a quarter-on-quarter basis to $7.51bn, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) climbed 40% to $1.27bn. Adjusted Ebitda surged 434% to $578.67m.

      Sabic’s net debt stood at $808m as of 30 September compared with $728m as of 30 June.

      Adjusted earnings per share rose to SR0.28 ($0.07) from a loss of SR0.13 ($0.03).

      The recovery occurred despite persistent margin pressure across the global petrochemicals sector and heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East.

      Additionally, Sabic said it achieved $949.33m of its broader portfolio optimisation programme target of $3bn by 2030 in positive recurring Ebitda impact from its transformation efforts.

      During the third quarter, Sabic received its Local Content Certificate for 2025 from the Local Content and Government Procurement Authority, recording a score exceeding 61% – an increase of more than nine percentage points over the prior evaluation period. The company attributed the increase to domestic procurement agreements, including a memorandum of understanding with Lenovo.

      Capital projects

      After several years of subdued project spending, Sabic is beginning to step up investment in new production capacity, with major projects reaching key milestones this year.

      In February, affiliate Petrokemya awarded China National Chemical Engineering Group Corporation the main engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for a new ethylene oxide catalyst production facility. The 4,000-tonne-a-year (t/y) unit at Jubail Industrial City includes catalyst carrier washing, drying facilities and associated utilities.

      Major ammonia-urea complex

      In September, Sabic Agri-Nutrients awarded South Korea’s Samsung E&A a $3.465bn EPC contract for its seventh production complex in Jubail Industrial City (San VII).

      The project will have an annual capacity of approximately 1.2 million metric tonnes of conventional ammonia and 2.6 million tonnes of urea, integrated with a post-combustion carbon-capture unit.

      The Ministry of Energy approved feedstock allocation for the project in March. San VII will expand the company’s total urea capacity by 54%, from approximately 4.8 million t/y to 7.4 million t/y.

      The development reflects a shift in project scope. Originally conceived as San VI – a low-carbon facility designed to yield 1.2 million t/y of blue ammonia alongside specialised nutrients – the scheme was re-engineered as a conventional ammonia and urea plant using carbon-capture systems to manage emissions intensity.

      Construction is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026. Commissioning is slated for the third quarter of 2030, with full commercial operation targeted before year-end 2030.

      Sabic Agri-Nutrients positions the project as central to its 2040 strategy to expand export market share and support international supply chains.

      Greenfield methanol plant

      San VII is not the only major project moving forward.

      Also in September, Sabic subsidiary Saudi Methanol Company (Ar-Razi) secured feedstock approval from the Ministry of Energy to build a 1.8 million t/y greenfield methanol plant in Jubail.

      The project aligns with Sabic’s focus on scale in core petrochemical chains and provides intermediate feedstock for expanding domestic downstream manufacturing.

      https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21015944/main2510.jpg
      Indrajit Sen