meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Trump factor weighs on the region’s economies

2 January 2025

 

If 2024 was a slow road back to stabilisation for economies in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region, with lower interest rates and generally improved fiscal positions providing some ballast against tumultuous geopolitical risk events, the coming year portends yet more instability with the return to the White House of Donald Trump. This will, for good or ill, have a decisive impact on the region’s economic trajectory. 

The region is looking at a more rapid economic growth rate in 2025 than the previous year. The World Bank, which estimated real GDP growth in the Mena region of 2.2% in 2024, sees region-wide growth at 3.8% in 2025, with Gulf economies driving this improvement. 

This reflects the gradual phasing out of voluntary oil production cuts starting from December 2024. 

Mena oil importers will see real GDP growth expand from just 1.3% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025, says the World Bank. 

Interest rates are a key ingredient in the mix, linking to the second Trump presidency, with its likely ramp-up of  global trade-war pressures. 

If the president-elect follows through on his tariff plans, which range from a proposed 60% on Chinese imports to 20% on the rest of the world, it will trigger higher inflation, thereby slowing the Federal Reserve’s moves to cut interest rates.

So while Mena exports to the US are unlikely to suffer direct fallout from planned tariffs – according to consultancy Capital Economics, the share of Mena goods exports going to the US stood at just 3.5% this decade – it is the secondary effects that could knock regional economies off their stride.

“If we do get the tariffs, and that leads to higher inflation in the US, that also means there will be tighter monetary policy in the Gulf countries with dollar pegs than would otherwise be the case,” says James Swanston, Mena economist at Capital Economics.

The possibility of a stronger dollar in 2025 means that for those economies with dollar pegs, their domestic industries could become less competitive. This jars with the thinking behind regional economic diversification schemes such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which are predicated on developing manufacturing sectors that are mainly export-oriented.

Regional fortitude

The largest Gulf economies should at least be well positioned to withstand such headwinds, even if a trade war hits the global economy. According to the World Bank, a lower interest rate environment, together with further investment and structural reform initiatives, will yield non-oil growth of more than 4% in the region’s two largest economies, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This – plus higher oil production – should be enough to offset any loss of momentum from lower oil prices and weaker fiscal balances.

Saudi Arabia is expected to show steady growth in 2025, with its Q3 2024 average GDP growth of 2.8% underscoring the kingdom’s stronger performance. However, the robust spending of past years is giving way to a more conservative fiscal approach, and that will inevitably impact project activity.

Riyadh’s 2025 pre-budget statement revealed a tougher fiscal stance for 2025, with anticipation of a deficit of 2.9%. With revenues expected to be 3.5% weaker in year-on year terms in 2025, this will mean reduced spending – around 3% lower than that outlined in the 2024 budget. 

“Saudi Arabia is being a bit more prudent about how they spend their money,” says Swanston. 

While there will be continued support for current spending, and for the official gigaprojects, capital expenditure will shoulder the burden of cuts. This will likely feed through to weaker non-oil GDP growth.

The UAE should see comparatively stronger growth momentum in 2025, driven by a combination of healthier dynamics in its touchstone real estate and tourism sectors, and the impact of infrastructure investment programmes. 

NBK Economic Research sees the UAE non-oil economy enjoying another year of 4%-plus growth in 2025, possibly as high as 5.1%. However, the bank’s economists offer a note of caution, as this is still below the 7.2% annual average growth rate the government requires to achieve the Vision 2031 target of a doubling in GDP by 2031.

On the fiscal front, the UAE is looking at a better situation in 2025. “The UAE has diversified its revenues to the point where non-oil revenues are larger than oil revenues. So, even if oil prices turn negative, they still wouldn’t run a deficit,” says Swanston.

Qatar is maintaining a tight fiscal policy, but from late 2025 it will begin to feel the effects of a significant predicted revenue boost when the first phase of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) expansion comes on stream. This will eventually add 40% to the country’s existing LNG export capacity of 77 million tonnes a year.

Kuwait, meanwhile, is set to run continued budget deficits, although the country’s non-oil economy has emerged from two years of negative growth and is forecast by NBK Research to expand by 2.6% in 2025. But Kuwait faces structural challenges, including a low investment rate and the need for fiscal consolidation, which will absorb policymakers in 2025. 

Oman, in contrast, looks to be in a better position than in previous years. According to an Article IV assessment released by the Washington-headquartered IMF in November, reform implementation under Oman Vision 2040 is proceeding decisively, along with initiatives to improve the business environment, attract large-scale investments and empower small and medium-sized enterprises. 

The sultanate’s economy continues to expand. Growth, says the IMF, is set to rebound starting in 2025, supported by higher hydrocarbons production and the continued acceleration of non-hydrocarbons growth. 

Bahrain faces a challenge when it comes to containing the country’s rising debt-to-GDP ratio, which grew from 100% in 2020 to just under 130% in 2024. The country needs to press ahead with fiscal consolidation moves if it is to improve the debt position.

Wider region

Outside the GCC, the picture will vary in 2025. Egypt has realistic expectations of a better year ahead, with falls in inflation and interest rates providing relief after a tough 2024. But foreign investors may feel a note of alarm at recent indications from President Abdul Fattah El-Sisi that the challenges associated with the country’s reform programme – a hint at the tough impact of reform on Egyptian consumers – might lead it to review its existing IMF deal. 

Tunisia presents a similar challenge. President Kais Saied’s proposed bill stripping the central bank of its ability to set interest rates and influence exchange rate policy without government consent is unlikely to encourage investors. 

In Egypt at least, there are silver linings that should assure investor confidence, even if the government’s commitment to reform wavers. “When it comes to the debt issue, everything’s in a pretty good place in Egypt,” says Swanston. 

“Yes, interest service payments on the debt have risen over the past 12 months, and the feed-through means that they will still be paying quite high debt servicing costs over the next six months. But yields are coming down in terms of its dollar-denominated debt. Worries about default are not as strong as before.”  

President El-Sisi may also find support from other sources. Given his previous close ties with the Trump administration in 2016-20, there may be a greater willingness in Washington to disburse funds to such an integral partner of US foreign policy, particularly when it has been buffeted by the Gaza conflict and the impact of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

Iraq’s economic fortunes remain bound up with the price of oil, which accounts for 90% of state revenues. The IMF has forecast a 4.1% GDP growth rate for Iraq in 2025, reflecting in part its surprising resilience to regional conflicts. However, lower oil prices may yet erode the country’s economic momentum. 

Progress on major projects such as the Development Road would at least suggest prime minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani’s government is focused on long-term delivery and tackling Iraq’s overreliance on hydrocarbons exports. 

Meanwhile, Iraq’s larger neighbour Iran, which saw GDP growth increase to 5% in the 2023-24 Iranian year, faces still bigger challenges linked to Trump’s return. It can expect to face a much tighter sanctions regime on its oil sector in 2025, with efforts to curb its ability to sell its crude oil on international markets expected to gain traction. The effects of these moves are still in the balance. 

The positive news for Tehran is that several of its crude buyers appear to be undaunted by a reimposition of deeper curbs on exports. For example, Chinese refiners have been importing Iranian oil to the tune of 1.5 million barrels a day. The country’s seeming imperviousness to international financial pressures could undercut the impact of a beefed-up US sanctions regime, although few would relish being in the shoes of Iranian economic policymakers right now.

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13211797/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Saudi Arabia qualifies firms for gas-fired IPPs

    28 September 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Principal buyer Saudi Power Procurement Company (SPPC) has qualified 13 companies to bid for the third round of Saudi Arabia’s combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) independent power producer (IPP) programme.

    The projects will comprise new CCGT plants developed on a build-own-operate basis. Each project will be implemented through a special-purpose project company wholly owned by the successful bidder.

    The qualified firms are:

    • Abu Dhabi National Energy Company [Taqa] (UAE)
    • Acwa (Saudi Arabia)
    • Al-Bawani Capital (Saudi Arabia)
    • Al-Jomaih Energy & Water (Saudi Arabia)
    • EDF (France)
    • Etihad Development Company (UAE)
    • Kepco (South Korea)
    • Marafiq (Saudi Arabia)
    • Mitsubishi Power (Japan)
    • Nesma Renewable Energy (Saudi Arabia)
    • PowerChina (China)
    • Saudi Energy (Saudi Arabia)
    • Sumitomo Corporation (Japan)

    Developers submitted statements of qualification for the round on 23 August, as exclusively reported by MEED.

    Some have already begun “the process of forming consortiums to bid” for the project, with up to three or four groups likely to make offers.

    Also in September, MEED exclusively reported that US-based GE Vernova was close to finalising a turbine reservation agreement with SPPC for the plants.

    The new plants will use advanced H-class or J-class gas turbine technology. Each IPP is expected to comprise two or three gas turbine generators, corresponding heat recovery steam generators with duct firing, and one or two steam turbine generators.

    The request for qualifications released by SPPC in July did not specify the number, locations or capacities of the projects, which mark the next stage of its CCGT IPP programme.

    The first round comprises Taiba 1, Taiba 2, Qassim 1 and Qassim 2, with a combined capacity of 7,200MW.

    The second round comprises Rumah 1, Rumah 2, Nairyah 1 and Nairyah 2, also with a combined capacity of 7,200MW.

    Saudi Arabia’s Acwa recently said it had begun initial commercial operations at the Taiba 1 and Qassim 1 CCGT power plants.

    US/India-based Synergy Consulting is the financial adviser for the procurement; Germany’s Fichtner is the technical adviser; and UK-headquartered Eversheds Sutherland is the legal adviser.

    READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20055392/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Dewa completes $2.7bn refinancing of Noor Energy 1

    28 September 2026

    Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) has completed a $2.7bn refinancing of the 950MW Noor Energy 1 project, the fourth phase of Dubai’s Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum Solar Park.

    Noor Energy 1 reached commercial operation in 2024. The project company was established to design, build and operate the plant. It is owned by Dewa (51%), Acwa (25%) and China’s Silk Road Fund (24%).

    The project combines 700MW of concentrated solar power (CSP) with 250MW of photovoltaic (PV) capacity. The CSP component comprises a 600MW parabolic trough facility and a 100MW solar tower.

    It has up to 15 hours of thermal energy storage, allowing it to supply dispatchable electricity beyond daylight hours. Dewa describes Noor Energy 1 as the world’s largest single-site CSP project.

    According to Dewa, the transaction strengthens the project’s financial structure and is expected to generate savings over the operational life of the plant. Saeed Mohammed Al-Tayer, managing director and CEO of Dewa, added that the refinancing demonstrates confidence from international, regional and local financial institutions.

    Abu Dhabi National Future Company (Masdar) is expected to commission the 1,800MW sixth phase of the MBR Solar Park by the end of this year.

    The $1.5bn facility is being implemented by Shuaa Energy 4, a special purpose vehicle jointly owned by Masdar (40%) and Dewa (60%).

    In August, MEED exclusively reported that Masdar is also likely to be awarded the contract to develop the seventh phase of the MBR Solar Park after submitting the lowest bid for the project.

    Phase seven will add 2,000MW from PV solar panels and include a 1,400MW battery energy storage system with a six-hour capacity, providing a total storage capacity of 8,400 megawatt-hours. 

    READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20055739/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • BP to drill new well in Egypt as part of $700m campaign

    28 September 2026

    London-headquartered BP has moved the Valaris DS-12 drilling rig to a new position ahead of drilling the planned Ghorab-1 exploration well, according to a statement from Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources.

    The Ghorab-1 exploration well will be drilled in the offshore West Nile Delta (WND) concession and is part of a $700m drilling campaign that started in April this year.

    The rig was moved to the new position after drilling the Fayoum-4 well.

    The Ministry of Petroleum said the well had commenced production and was connected to the national natural gas grid, delivering approximately 80 million cubic feet a day of gas.

    Egypt’s Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Karim Badawi held a meeting with officials from BP last week to discuss progress on the drilling campaign.

    They discussed BP’s strategic direction and priorities, as well as its future business plans, according to the statement from the Ministry of Petroleum.

    Increased interest

    Amid the US and Israel’s ongoing conflict with Iran and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, oil assets in North Africa have become increasingly appealing to international oil companies.

    Disruptions to oil and gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz have severely disrupted a range of countries, including Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait.

    London-headquartered Shell has also been pushing ahead with strategic projects in Egypt over recent months.

    In August, BG Delta, a Shell subsidiary, reached the final investment decision for phase 12a of the West Delta Deep Marine (WDDM) development project.

    The project will be implemented in partnership with Malaysia’s Petronas and state-owned Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC).

    Shell, Petronas and EGPC formed a joint venture called Burullus Gas Company to operate the WDDM concession.

    Phase 12a includes drilling and completing three deepwater gas wells, with production expected to begin in 2028.

    The wells will be tied into existing subsea infrastructure, helping accelerate development, improve capital efficiency and limit the need for additional facilities.

    In April, Egypt’s Petroleum Marine Services (PMS) was awarded a contract for offshore works for phase 12 of the WDDM field development project.

    The contract awarded to PMS uses the engineering, procurement, installation and construction contract model.

    Under the scope of the contract, PMS will install the required electrical, hydraulic and mechanical connections in deep waters to tie three new gas wells into production as part of phase 12.

    The scope also includes the installation of three final triple tie-in spool bases to complete the connection between the wells.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20050585/main4559.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Oil company talks shape Libya licensing round

    28 September 2026

     

    Conversations with London-headquartered international oil companies (IOCs) are playing a key role in shaping plans for Libya’s next licensing round.

    Representatives from Shell and BP travelled to Libya earlier this month as part of a Libyan British Business Council (LBBC) delegation.

    During the trip, the oil companies’ representatives met with officials from Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC).

    Peter Millett, chair of the LBBC and a former British ambassador to Libya, told MEED: “NOC is considering its next licensing round and an important part of that process is talking to IOCs like BP and Shell about what kind of terms would make blocks appealing to them.

    “They are asking these oil companies what they can do differently in order to get more investment.”

    Libya’s NOC chairman is Masoud Suleman, who was formally appointed in October last year after serving as acting chairman since January 2025.

    Shortly after he became acting chairman, the NOC announced the results of its most recent licensing round, which was launched in March 2025 and was the country’s first in 17 years.

    A total of five blocks out of 22 available were ultimately awarded in the 2025 licensing round.

    One of the blocks, known as Block S4, was awarded to US-based Chevron, and the production-sharing agreement (PSA) for the block was signed in August.

    Investment drive

    Millett said Libya is seeking large investments from oil companies in order to boost national production.

    “The way that Masoud Suleman is running NOC is impressive and technocratic,” he said. “One of his focuses is making his organisation into a partner that IOCs want to work with.”

    “NOC has the ambition to produce more oil and export more oil, but they need investment in order to do this.

    “They received some money from the central bank for a budget, but it is just a fraction of what they need.

    “There’s a huge requirement to invest in infrastructure, such as processing facilities and pipelines, so they’re looking to outside companies to bring them investment and technology.”

    Amid the US and Israel’s ongoing conflict with Iran and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, oil assets in North Africa have become increasingly appealing to IOCs.

    Disruptions to oil and gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz have severely affected a range of countries, including Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait.

    Millett believes Libya’s proximity to consumer markets could help it secure investment to develop its oil and gas sector.

    “Oil companies appear to be becoming increasingly willing to provide this investment in the current climate, because it is relatively easy to transport Libyan crude to customers,” he said.

    “The only strait that you might need to go through is the Strait of Gibraltar, and this is easy compared to the problems that countries like Iraq and Kuwait are having shipping their crude through the Strait of Hormuz at the moment.”

    Security challenges

    While Libya’s location offers significant benefits in terms of ease of exports, operating in the country comes with security challenges.

    Over recent weeks, both the Mellitah oil and gas complex and the Zawiya refinery in the west of the country have been disrupted by the actions of armed groups.

    On top of this, a key pipeline was shut down by militants, temporarily cutting national production by 130,000 barrels a day.

    While Libya has significant potential to expand its oil and gas sector, IOCs will likely watch for signs of deteriorating security before committing to large investment projects.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20050217/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Ohana begins Abu Dhabi project construction

    25 September 2026

    Dubai-based real estate firm Ohana Development has started the main construction works on the $4bn Manchester City Football Club-branded gated waterfront community on Yas Canal in Abu Dhabi.

    The construction works are being carried out by Ohana-owned Nova International General Contracting.

    The development will span an area of about 1.67 million square metres. It will include 2,000 residential units, ranging from four- and five-bedroom villas to mansions, penthouses and apartments, across six clusters.

    The project is slated for completion in 2029 and will be delivered in two phases.

    It will be located on Yas Canal, next to Ferrari World Abu Dhabi and SeaWorld Abu Dhabi.

    The development is Manchester City’s first branded residential project worldwide.

    A key feature of the project is a Manchester City Academy, which will offer training and recovery facilities aligned with the club’s player development model.

    More than 55% of the masterplan is allocated to landscaped gardens and green spaces.

    Last year, Ohana Development launched the AED4.7bn ($1.3bn) Jacob & Co Beachfront Living by Ohana residential project in the Al-Jurf area of Abu Dhabi.

    The developer said in a statement that the project comprises 457 residential units, including apartments, villas, penthouses and mansions.

    The project is expected to be completed by 2028 and is being developed in partnership with US-based jewellery firm Jacob & Co.

    Ohana Development’s portfolio in Abu Dhabi also includes Ohana by the Sea in Al-Jurf and Elie Saab Waterfront by Ohana on Reem Island.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19994074/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal