meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Trump factor weighs on the region’s economies

2 January 2025

 

If 2024 was a slow road back to stabilisation for economies in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region, with lower interest rates and generally improved fiscal positions providing some ballast against tumultuous geopolitical risk events, the coming year portends yet more instability with the return to the White House of Donald Trump. This will, for good or ill, have a decisive impact on the region’s economic trajectory. 

The region is looking at a more rapid economic growth rate in 2025 than the previous year. The World Bank, which estimated real GDP growth in the Mena region of 2.2% in 2024, sees region-wide growth at 3.8% in 2025, with Gulf economies driving this improvement. 

This reflects the gradual phasing out of voluntary oil production cuts starting from December 2024. 

Mena oil importers will see real GDP growth expand from just 1.3% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025, says the World Bank. 

Interest rates are a key ingredient in the mix, linking to the second Trump presidency, with its likely ramp-up of  global trade-war pressures. 

If the president-elect follows through on his tariff plans, which range from a proposed 60% on Chinese imports to 20% on the rest of the world, it will trigger higher inflation, thereby slowing the Federal Reserve’s moves to cut interest rates.

So while Mena exports to the US are unlikely to suffer direct fallout from planned tariffs – according to consultancy Capital Economics, the share of Mena goods exports going to the US stood at just 3.5% this decade – it is the secondary effects that could knock regional economies off their stride.

“If we do get the tariffs, and that leads to higher inflation in the US, that also means there will be tighter monetary policy in the Gulf countries with dollar pegs than would otherwise be the case,” says James Swanston, Mena economist at Capital Economics.

The possibility of a stronger dollar in 2025 means that for those economies with dollar pegs, their domestic industries could become less competitive. This jars with the thinking behind regional economic diversification schemes such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which are predicated on developing manufacturing sectors that are mainly export-oriented.

Regional fortitude

The largest Gulf economies should at least be well positioned to withstand such headwinds, even if a trade war hits the global economy. According to the World Bank, a lower interest rate environment, together with further investment and structural reform initiatives, will yield non-oil growth of more than 4% in the region’s two largest economies, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This – plus higher oil production – should be enough to offset any loss of momentum from lower oil prices and weaker fiscal balances.

Saudi Arabia is expected to show steady growth in 2025, with its Q3 2024 average GDP growth of 2.8% underscoring the kingdom’s stronger performance. However, the robust spending of past years is giving way to a more conservative fiscal approach, and that will inevitably impact project activity.

Riyadh’s 2025 pre-budget statement revealed a tougher fiscal stance for 2025, with anticipation of a deficit of 2.9%. With revenues expected to be 3.5% weaker in year-on year terms in 2025, this will mean reduced spending – around 3% lower than that outlined in the 2024 budget. 

“Saudi Arabia is being a bit more prudent about how they spend their money,” says Swanston. 

While there will be continued support for current spending, and for the official gigaprojects, capital expenditure will shoulder the burden of cuts. This will likely feed through to weaker non-oil GDP growth.

The UAE should see comparatively stronger growth momentum in 2025, driven by a combination of healthier dynamics in its touchstone real estate and tourism sectors, and the impact of infrastructure investment programmes. 

NBK Economic Research sees the UAE non-oil economy enjoying another year of 4%-plus growth in 2025, possibly as high as 5.1%. However, the bank’s economists offer a note of caution, as this is still below the 7.2% annual average growth rate the government requires to achieve the Vision 2031 target of a doubling in GDP by 2031.

On the fiscal front, the UAE is looking at a better situation in 2025. “The UAE has diversified its revenues to the point where non-oil revenues are larger than oil revenues. So, even if oil prices turn negative, they still wouldn’t run a deficit,” says Swanston.

Qatar is maintaining a tight fiscal policy, but from late 2025 it will begin to feel the effects of a significant predicted revenue boost when the first phase of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) expansion comes on stream. This will eventually add 40% to the country’s existing LNG export capacity of 77 million tonnes a year.

Kuwait, meanwhile, is set to run continued budget deficits, although the country’s non-oil economy has emerged from two years of negative growth and is forecast by NBK Research to expand by 2.6% in 2025. But Kuwait faces structural challenges, including a low investment rate and the need for fiscal consolidation, which will absorb policymakers in 2025. 

Oman, in contrast, looks to be in a better position than in previous years. According to an Article IV assessment released by the Washington-headquartered IMF in November, reform implementation under Oman Vision 2040 is proceeding decisively, along with initiatives to improve the business environment, attract large-scale investments and empower small and medium-sized enterprises. 

The sultanate’s economy continues to expand. Growth, says the IMF, is set to rebound starting in 2025, supported by higher hydrocarbons production and the continued acceleration of non-hydrocarbons growth. 

Bahrain faces a challenge when it comes to containing the country’s rising debt-to-GDP ratio, which grew from 100% in 2020 to just under 130% in 2024. The country needs to press ahead with fiscal consolidation moves if it is to improve the debt position.

Wider region

Outside the GCC, the picture will vary in 2025. Egypt has realistic expectations of a better year ahead, with falls in inflation and interest rates providing relief after a tough 2024. But foreign investors may feel a note of alarm at recent indications from President Abdul Fattah El-Sisi that the challenges associated with the country’s reform programme – a hint at the tough impact of reform on Egyptian consumers – might lead it to review its existing IMF deal. 

Tunisia presents a similar challenge. President Kais Saied’s proposed bill stripping the central bank of its ability to set interest rates and influence exchange rate policy without government consent is unlikely to encourage investors. 

In Egypt at least, there are silver linings that should assure investor confidence, even if the government’s commitment to reform wavers. “When it comes to the debt issue, everything’s in a pretty good place in Egypt,” says Swanston. 

“Yes, interest service payments on the debt have risen over the past 12 months, and the feed-through means that they will still be paying quite high debt servicing costs over the next six months. But yields are coming down in terms of its dollar-denominated debt. Worries about default are not as strong as before.”  

President El-Sisi may also find support from other sources. Given his previous close ties with the Trump administration in 2016-20, there may be a greater willingness in Washington to disburse funds to such an integral partner of US foreign policy, particularly when it has been buffeted by the Gaza conflict and the impact of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

Iraq’s economic fortunes remain bound up with the price of oil, which accounts for 90% of state revenues. The IMF has forecast a 4.1% GDP growth rate for Iraq in 2025, reflecting in part its surprising resilience to regional conflicts. However, lower oil prices may yet erode the country’s economic momentum. 

Progress on major projects such as the Development Road would at least suggest prime minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani’s government is focused on long-term delivery and tackling Iraq’s overreliance on hydrocarbons exports. 

Meanwhile, Iraq’s larger neighbour Iran, which saw GDP growth increase to 5% in the 2023-24 Iranian year, faces still bigger challenges linked to Trump’s return. It can expect to face a much tighter sanctions regime on its oil sector in 2025, with efforts to curb its ability to sell its crude oil on international markets expected to gain traction. The effects of these moves are still in the balance. 

The positive news for Tehran is that several of its crude buyers appear to be undaunted by a reimposition of deeper curbs on exports. For example, Chinese refiners have been importing Iranian oil to the tune of 1.5 million barrels a day. The country’s seeming imperviousness to international financial pressures could undercut the impact of a beefed-up US sanctions regime, although few would relish being in the shoes of Iranian economic policymakers right now.

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13211797/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Read the May 2026 MEED Business Review

    30 April 2026

    Download / Subscribe / 14-day trial access

    The regional war – and resulting disruption to oil and gas shipping – has triggered a major global energy security shock that is likely to recalibrate long-term decisions on how energy is produced and consumed.

    The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is exposing the vulnerability of Middle East supply chains and pushing import-dependent countries to strengthen energy security by expanding domestic fossil fuels, speeding up nuclear projects, and investing in renewables and storage.

    At the same time, higher prices are encouraging producers unencumbered by reliance on the Strait to boost output.

    Like the oil shocks of the 1970s, the conflict is likely to have lasting effects, reshaping energy policies and partnerships and accelerating diversification away from existing arrangements. Read more here. 

    The conflict is also undermining the business case for Middle East liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, as prices rise, demand drops and confidence in the reliability of the region’s suppliers is eroded. 

    May’s market focus is on the UAE, where disruption from the Iran war has challenged every assumption behind the country’s non-oil model.

    This edition also includes our industry report on Gulf capital markets, as well as analysis on the region’s initial public offering market.

    In the latest issue, we explore why regional banks are feeling the strain despite strong buffers; consider why force majeure offers no shield against construction breaches; examine the Public Investment Fund’s 2026-30 strategy and talk to Estelle Brachlianoff, CEO of water infrastructure operator Veolia.   

    We hope our valued subscribers enjoy the May 2026 issue of MEED Business Review. 

     

    Must-read sections in the May 2026 issue of MEED Business Review include:

    > AGENDA: War in the Middle East recalibrates global energy markets

    > REGIONAL LNG: War undermines business case for Middle East LNG

    INDUSTRY REPORT:
    Gulf capital markets
    > Damage avoidance frames debt issuance
    > Regional IPO market dries up amid war

    > INTERVIEW: Desalination holds steady amid tensions, says Veolia CEO

    > LEGAL: Force majeure will not cure pre-existing construction industry breaches  

    > BANKS: GCC banks to feel the strain despite strong buffers

    > PIF STRATEGY: Public Investment Fund approves 2026-30 strategy

    > UAE MARKET FOCUS: 
    > COMMENT: Conflict tests UAE diversification
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: UAE economy absorbs multi-sector shock
    > BANKING: UAE banks ready to weather the storm
    > ATTACKS: UAE counts energy infrastructure costs
    > UPSTREAM: Adnoc builds long-term oil and gas production potential
    > DOWNSTREAM: Adnoc Gas to rally UAE downstream project spending
    > POWER: Large-scale IPPs drive UAE power market
    > WATER: UAE water investment broadens beyond desalination
    > CONSTRUCTION: War casts shadow over UAE construction boom
    > TRANSPORT: UAE rail momentum grows as trade routes face strain
    > DATABANK: UAE GDP projection corrects on conflict

    > MEED COMMENTS: 
    >     War takes a rising toll on Kuwait’s oil sector
    > Libya budget approval could lead to surge in oil and gas projects
    > Masdar’s move abroad will not be the last
    > Saudi Landbridge finds its moment in Gulf turmoil

    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf index plateaus despite ceasefire

    > MARCH 2026 CONTRACTS: Middle East contract awards

    > ECONOMIC DATA: Data drives regional projects

    > OPINION: The road to hell is paved with gold

    > BUSINESS OUTLOOK: Finance, oil and gas, construction, power and water contracts

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16623768/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • Algeria extends bid deadline for stalled power plant

    30 April 2026

    Algeria’s state-owned electricity and gas utility Sonelgaz has extended a deadline for contractors to submit expressions of interest for the construction of the 1.2GW Djelfa combined-cycle power plant.

    The project is being procured through Sonelgaz’s power generation subsidiary, Societe Algerienne de l’Electricite et du Gaz – Production de l’Electricite (SPE).

    In March, MEED reported that the utility was seeking contractors to complete works at the existing Djelfa plant, including the remaining construction, the supply of missing equipment and the assessment of installed equipment.

    The original bid submission deadline for prequalification was 7 April. The new deadline is 5 May.

    The tender is open to both local and international companies, and will be conducted in three phases: prequalification, preliminary technical assessment, and final technical and financial submission.

    The retender follows earlier plans to complete the project through a Chinese consortium comprising China Energy Engineering Group Company, Northwest Electric Power Design Institute and Anhui Electric Power Construction Company.

    This proposal was made after Spanish contractor Duro Felguera halted work on the project in June 2024. 

    According to MEED Projects, construction works had progressed to 72% at the time of the suspension.

    It is understood that an agreement in principle was then reached to transfer the remaining works to the Chinese group after the Spanish firm entered a pre-bankruptcy phase in December 2024.

    A company statement at the time said: “The Chinese group is committed to completing the plant construction, with commissioning scheduled to start in the ninth month following the final agreement.”

    However, in October 2025, it was revealed that the attempt to transfer the project to a consortium of Chinese companies had failed, leaving the Spanish firm with an official demand to pay €413m in compensation to Sonelgaz.

    This was revealed via a lengthy report containing a restructuring plan sent by Duro Felguera to creditors in Spain and the Madrid Financial Markets Authority.

    Gas-fired power plants

    Located in Djelfa province, the project remains a key part of Algeria’s power generation expansion plans.

    Sonelgaz has been seeking contractors to build a separate 1.2GW combined-cycle gas-fired power plant in Aldrar since last April.

    The most recent deadline extension was 29 April.

    According to recent reports, Algeria has also begun construction of a power generation plant in El-Aouinet, with a total installed capacity of 1,406MW.

    The combined-cycle gas turbine plant is being developed in partnership with China National Electric Engineering Company.

    Gas-fired combined-cycle plants continue to account for the majority of Algeria’s electricity generation capacity. Data from MEED Projects indicates that more than 5,000MW of oil- and gas-fired power capacity is currently in the execution phase.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16623787/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Dewa announces new record for power reliability

    30 April 2026

    Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) has announced that it set a new world record for the lowest electricity customer minutes lost (CML), at 0.82 minutes a year in 2025.

    The figure is equivalent to about 49 seconds of annual outage per customer. It improves on the utility’s previous record of 0.94 minutes in 2024, a reduction of around 13%.

    Dewa said it has reduced CML in Dubai from 6.88 minutes a year in 2012 to 0.82 minutes in 2025, significantly lower than the average of about 15 minutes recorded by leading electricity utilities in the European Union.

    The smart grid is a central component of Dewa’s strategy to improve reliability and efficiency. The programme is being implemented with total investments of AED7bn up to 2035.

    One of the key initiatives of the programme is the Automatic Smart Grid Restoration System, which enables remote, round-the-clock control and monitoring.

    Dewa currently has tenders out for several power and water infrastructure projects in the emirate. These include at least four Glass Reinforced Epoxy (GRE) water transmission pipeline projects.

    According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, Dewa awarded $1.1bn-worth of new power and water contracts in 2025. Contract awards had previously reached $2.6bn in 2024, and $4bn in 2024.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16623721/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Riyadh tenders PMC deal for major sports arena

    30 April 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Sports Boulevard Foundation has tendered a contract inviting firms to bid for project management consultancy (PMC) services for the Global Sports Tower in the Athletics District of the Sports Boulevard development in Riyadh.

    The tender was issued on 8 April, with a bid submission deadline of 10 May.

    The 130-metre-tall Global Sports Tower will cover an area of 84,000 square metres and will include more than 30 sports facilities. The tower will feature the world’s tallest indoor climbing wall at 98 metres and a 250-metre running track.

    Earlier this week, MEED reported that the Sports Boulevard Foundation is preparing to award the main construction contract for the Global Sports Tower. MEED understands that bid evaluation has reached an advanced stage and the contract is likely to be awarded by the end of May.

    MEED reported in May last year that design work on the tower had been completed. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud approved the designs in 2024.

    The Sports Boulevard development runs across Riyadh from east to west and, once complete, is set to be the world’s longest park spanning more than 135 kilometres.

    The development will be spread across several districts, including Wadi Hanifah, Arts, Urban Wadi, Entertainment, Athletics and Eco, as well as Sands Sports Park.

    The large-scale project aims to transform central Riyadh – currently dominated by major highways – into a recreational corridor.

    Sports Boulevard, which will feature 4.4 million sq m of public realm and landmark buildings, will also be home to the Centre for Cinematic Arts and a 2,000-seat amphitheatre.

    The development will provide more than 2.3 million sq m of mixed-use commercial, residential, and retail assets, along with sports facilities around the park, known as Linear Park.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16622287/main.jpeg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Contractors submit Saudi Arabia phosphate rail track bids

    30 April 2026

     

    Saudi Arabian Railways (SAR) received bids from contractors on 27 April for a multibillion-riyal tender to double the tracks on the existing phosphate transport railway network connecting the Waad Al-Shamal mines to Ras Al-Khair in the kingdom’s Eastern Province.

    The tender – covering the second section of the track-doubling works and spanning more than 150 kilometres (km) – was issued on 9 February.

    This follows SAR receiving bids on 1 February for the project’s first phase, which spans about 100km from the AZ1/Nariyah Yard to Ras Al-Khair.

    The scope includes track doubling, alignment modifications, new utility bridges, culvert widening and hydrological structures, as well as the conversion of the AZ1 siding into a mainline track. It also includes support for signalling and telecommunications systems.

    The tender notice was issued in late November.

    Switzerland-based engineering firm ARX is the project consultant.

    MEED understands that these two packages are the first of four that SAR is expected to tender for the phosphate railway line. Other packages anticipated to be tendered shortly include the depot and systems packages.

    In 2023, MEED reported that SAR was planning two projects to increase its freight capacity, including an estimated SR4.2bn ($1.1bn) project to install a second track along the North Train Freight Line and construct three new freight yards.

    Formerly known as the North-South Railway, the North Train is a 1,550km-long freight line running from the phosphate and bauxite mines in the far north of the kingdom to the Al-Baithah junction. There, it diverges into a line southward to Riyadh and a second line running east to downstream fertiliser production and alumina refining facilities at Ras Al-Khair on the Gulf coast.

    Adding a second track and the freight yards will significantly increase the network’s cargo-carrying capacity and facilitate increased industrial production. Project implementation is expected to take four years.

    State-owned SAR is also considering increasing the localisation of railway materials and equipment, including the construction of a cement sleeper manufacturing facility.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16622526/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal