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Trump factor weighs on the region’s economies

2 January 2025

 

If 2024 was a slow road back to stabilisation for economies in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region, with lower interest rates and generally improved fiscal positions providing some ballast against tumultuous geopolitical risk events, the coming year portends yet more instability with the return to the White House of Donald Trump. This will, for good or ill, have a decisive impact on the region’s economic trajectory. 

The region is looking at a more rapid economic growth rate in 2025 than the previous year. The World Bank, which estimated real GDP growth in the Mena region of 2.2% in 2024, sees region-wide growth at 3.8% in 2025, with Gulf economies driving this improvement. 

This reflects the gradual phasing out of voluntary oil production cuts starting from December 2024. 

Mena oil importers will see real GDP growth expand from just 1.3% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025, says the World Bank. 

Interest rates are a key ingredient in the mix, linking to the second Trump presidency, with its likely ramp-up of  global trade-war pressures. 

If the president-elect follows through on his tariff plans, which range from a proposed 60% on Chinese imports to 20% on the rest of the world, it will trigger higher inflation, thereby slowing the Federal Reserve’s moves to cut interest rates.

So while Mena exports to the US are unlikely to suffer direct fallout from planned tariffs – according to consultancy Capital Economics, the share of Mena goods exports going to the US stood at just 3.5% this decade – it is the secondary effects that could knock regional economies off their stride.

“If we do get the tariffs, and that leads to higher inflation in the US, that also means there will be tighter monetary policy in the Gulf countries with dollar pegs than would otherwise be the case,” says James Swanston, Mena economist at Capital Economics.

The possibility of a stronger dollar in 2025 means that for those economies with dollar pegs, their domestic industries could become less competitive. This jars with the thinking behind regional economic diversification schemes such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which are predicated on developing manufacturing sectors that are mainly export-oriented.

Regional fortitude

The largest Gulf economies should at least be well positioned to withstand such headwinds, even if a trade war hits the global economy. According to the World Bank, a lower interest rate environment, together with further investment and structural reform initiatives, will yield non-oil growth of more than 4% in the region’s two largest economies, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This – plus higher oil production – should be enough to offset any loss of momentum from lower oil prices and weaker fiscal balances.

Saudi Arabia is expected to show steady growth in 2025, with its Q3 2024 average GDP growth of 2.8% underscoring the kingdom’s stronger performance. However, the robust spending of past years is giving way to a more conservative fiscal approach, and that will inevitably impact project activity.

Riyadh’s 2025 pre-budget statement revealed a tougher fiscal stance for 2025, with anticipation of a deficit of 2.9%. With revenues expected to be 3.5% weaker in year-on year terms in 2025, this will mean reduced spending – around 3% lower than that outlined in the 2024 budget. 

“Saudi Arabia is being a bit more prudent about how they spend their money,” says Swanston. 

While there will be continued support for current spending, and for the official gigaprojects, capital expenditure will shoulder the burden of cuts. This will likely feed through to weaker non-oil GDP growth.

The UAE should see comparatively stronger growth momentum in 2025, driven by a combination of healthier dynamics in its touchstone real estate and tourism sectors, and the impact of infrastructure investment programmes. 

NBK Economic Research sees the UAE non-oil economy enjoying another year of 4%-plus growth in 2025, possibly as high as 5.1%. However, the bank’s economists offer a note of caution, as this is still below the 7.2% annual average growth rate the government requires to achieve the Vision 2031 target of a doubling in GDP by 2031.

On the fiscal front, the UAE is looking at a better situation in 2025. “The UAE has diversified its revenues to the point where non-oil revenues are larger than oil revenues. So, even if oil prices turn negative, they still wouldn’t run a deficit,” says Swanston.

Qatar is maintaining a tight fiscal policy, but from late 2025 it will begin to feel the effects of a significant predicted revenue boost when the first phase of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) expansion comes on stream. This will eventually add 40% to the country’s existing LNG export capacity of 77 million tonnes a year.

Kuwait, meanwhile, is set to run continued budget deficits, although the country’s non-oil economy has emerged from two years of negative growth and is forecast by NBK Research to expand by 2.6% in 2025. But Kuwait faces structural challenges, including a low investment rate and the need for fiscal consolidation, which will absorb policymakers in 2025. 

Oman, in contrast, looks to be in a better position than in previous years. According to an Article IV assessment released by the Washington-headquartered IMF in November, reform implementation under Oman Vision 2040 is proceeding decisively, along with initiatives to improve the business environment, attract large-scale investments and empower small and medium-sized enterprises. 

The sultanate’s economy continues to expand. Growth, says the IMF, is set to rebound starting in 2025, supported by higher hydrocarbons production and the continued acceleration of non-hydrocarbons growth. 

Bahrain faces a challenge when it comes to containing the country’s rising debt-to-GDP ratio, which grew from 100% in 2020 to just under 130% in 2024. The country needs to press ahead with fiscal consolidation moves if it is to improve the debt position.

Wider region

Outside the GCC, the picture will vary in 2025. Egypt has realistic expectations of a better year ahead, with falls in inflation and interest rates providing relief after a tough 2024. But foreign investors may feel a note of alarm at recent indications from President Abdul Fattah El-Sisi that the challenges associated with the country’s reform programme – a hint at the tough impact of reform on Egyptian consumers – might lead it to review its existing IMF deal. 

Tunisia presents a similar challenge. President Kais Saied’s proposed bill stripping the central bank of its ability to set interest rates and influence exchange rate policy without government consent is unlikely to encourage investors. 

In Egypt at least, there are silver linings that should assure investor confidence, even if the government’s commitment to reform wavers. “When it comes to the debt issue, everything’s in a pretty good place in Egypt,” says Swanston. 

“Yes, interest service payments on the debt have risen over the past 12 months, and the feed-through means that they will still be paying quite high debt servicing costs over the next six months. But yields are coming down in terms of its dollar-denominated debt. Worries about default are not as strong as before.”  

President El-Sisi may also find support from other sources. Given his previous close ties with the Trump administration in 2016-20, there may be a greater willingness in Washington to disburse funds to such an integral partner of US foreign policy, particularly when it has been buffeted by the Gaza conflict and the impact of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

Iraq’s economic fortunes remain bound up with the price of oil, which accounts for 90% of state revenues. The IMF has forecast a 4.1% GDP growth rate for Iraq in 2025, reflecting in part its surprising resilience to regional conflicts. However, lower oil prices may yet erode the country’s economic momentum. 

Progress on major projects such as the Development Road would at least suggest prime minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani’s government is focused on long-term delivery and tackling Iraq’s overreliance on hydrocarbons exports. 

Meanwhile, Iraq’s larger neighbour Iran, which saw GDP growth increase to 5% in the 2023-24 Iranian year, faces still bigger challenges linked to Trump’s return. It can expect to face a much tighter sanctions regime on its oil sector in 2025, with efforts to curb its ability to sell its crude oil on international markets expected to gain traction. The effects of these moves are still in the balance. 

The positive news for Tehran is that several of its crude buyers appear to be undaunted by a reimposition of deeper curbs on exports. For example, Chinese refiners have been importing Iranian oil to the tune of 1.5 million barrels a day. The country’s seeming imperviousness to international financial pressures could undercut the impact of a beefed-up US sanctions regime, although few would relish being in the shoes of Iranian economic policymakers right now.

 

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James Gavin

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    > This package also includes: Damage avoidance frames debt issuance

    Both the number and value of initial public offerings (IPOs) in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) fell in 2025. Any hopes that the trend might be turned around this year have largely disappeared thanks to the Iran war.

    Stock markets tumbled in the opening days of the conflict and, unless they have a good reason not to, most companies thinking of launching onto the stock market are likely to put their plans on hold until there is greater certainty about the direction of political and economic events. 

    According to global advisory firm EY, there were 49 new listings across the Mena region last year, five fewer than the year before, when activity was at a near-record level. The value of the market debuts last year dropped by far more though, with total proceeds falling to $7.3bn, down by 42% compared to the $12.5bn seen in 2024 and the lowest annual total since 2020.

    One reason for this was the notable slowdown in the UAE, where confidence may have been dented by the poor performance of several new listings in recent years. In 2025, there were just three IPOs across the UAE’s markets, compared to seven the year before. 

    Last year’s listings included one on the Abu Dhabi Exchange (ADX) and two on the Dubai Financial Market (DFM), between them raising $1.1bn. The largest was the Dubai Residential Reit, which secured proceeds of $584m on the DFM in May. Technology firm Alpha Data raised $163m on the ADX in March, while construction and engineering company Alec Holding’s IPO brought in $381m in October.

    Saudi surge

    Saudi Arabia was by far the most active market last year – maintaining its position as the dominant bourse in the region. It hosted 39 IPOs, including 15 on the Tadawul main market and 24 on the junior Nomu market. Between them, these raised $4.9bn, or two-thirds of the regional total, with the majority coming via the main market listings. 

    Across the other GCC states, there were just two listings: Asyad Shipping Company on the Muscat Stock Exchange, which netted proceeds of $333m in March 2025, and Action Energy Company on the Boursa Kuwait, which raised $180m in December. 

    Bahrain and Qatar saw no new listings and the total of 44 IPOs for the six-country Gulf bloc was the lowest since 2021. 

    Activity outside the Gulf was even more limited, although the five IPOs last year – three on Morocco’s Casablanca Stock Exchange and two on the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) – was the most since 2018. 

    These listings raised a little more than $700m between them, with the largest being the $525m secured by construction company Societe Generale des Travaux du Maroc on the Casablanca bourse late in the year.

    The mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market proved more robust in 2025, with 635 deals completed in the region last year. That marked a 33% year-on-year rise and saw the market return to its 2022 peak, according to global professional services company PwC.

    The total included 238 inbound M&A deals, up from 182 the year before – and was the first significant rise in foreign investment since 2023. From within the region, sovereign wealth funds played a central role, in line with their mandates to help diversify their home economies.

    The total of 44 IPOs for the six-country Gulf bloc [in 2025] was the lowest since 2021

    Optimism dampened

    At the turn of the year there had been some optimism about the potential for the IPO market to also start accelerating. In a report in January, Fitch Ratings said: “The initial public offering and debt capital market pipelines [in the GCC] remain robust into 2026.” 

    EY said 18 companies and funds had expressed an intention to list in the first quarter, including 16 in Saudi Arabia alone.

    The reality has been very different, with just a handful of listings across the Arab world in the first quarter of the year. 

    Among the few deals, high-end supermarket chain Gourmet Egypt listed on the EGX on 1 February, raising $28m and, in the process, becoming the first food and beverage retailer on the exchange.

    The market in the Gulf has almost dried up, although a couple of deals have gone ahead since the war began on 28 February. 

    There was just one new listing on the Saudi Tadawul in the first quarter, with construction firm Saleh Abdulaziz Al-Rashed & Sons raising $67m via its debut on 11 March.

    Retailer Trolley General Trading Company also listed on the Premier Market of Boursa Kuwait via a private placement in March. EFG Hermes, which acted as a global coordinator and bookrunner on the transaction, said the size of the offer had been increased from 30% of the company’s issued share capital to 35% due to strong investor demand, with total proceeds reaching $195m. 

    Co-head of investment banking at EFG Hermes, Karim Meleka, described it as “a successful transaction in an uncertain market”. It was also the largest IPO in the Middle East and Africa in Q1 2026, according to financial data provider Dealogic. 

    The prospects for the rest of the year have been badly dented by the war, in line with the dimmer economic outlook. In its latest forecast, issued in April, the World Bank said it expects GDP growth across the GCC to slow to 1.3% this year, compared to the prediction of 4.4% growth it made in January. 

    If a lasting peace deal can be agreed, then some sectors could see a quick rebound, but some key areas of economic activity, such as tourism, could take far longer to recover. And the pain will not be evenly spread. The World Bank expects Saudi Arabia will post 3.1% growth in GDP this year, but the economies of Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar will contract by 8.6%, 6.4% and 5.7%, respectively.

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  • Damage avoidance frames debt issuance

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    It is still early days, but Gulf fixed-income markets appear to have averted the worst of the conflict, with limited selloffs witnessed during the first six weeks of the Iran war.

    This reflects a strong tailwind for GCC debt capital markets (DCM) in 2026, for both conventional and sukuk (Islamic bonds) – even if geopolitical turmoil may upend issuers’ best-laid plans. 

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    If there is a much more protracted conflict or with a much more severe implication on the economy, there could be a much more severe implication on the overall volume of issuance in the GCC. But the numbers as of the end-March indicate this is still not yet fully visible.

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    Last year proved an active one for Gulf DCM issuance. Overall, GCC countries accounted for 35% of all emerging market dollar debt issuance in 2025 (excluding China). According to Kuwait-based Markaz, primary debt issuances of bonds and sukuk in the GCC amounted to $189.47bn, through 515 issuances, up 28.13% on 2024.

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    Combined GCC issuance in January and February 2026 reached about $73bn, marking a 14.5% increase from the previous year, according to Fitch. “Sovereign and quasi-sovereign issuers remained foundational to the GCC DCM, but corporate and institutional participation was steadily rising, driven by favourable financing conditions,” says Al-Natoor.

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    Saudi Arabia made an auspicious start to 2026, raising $11.5bn on international markets in January, in a sale that was three times oversubscribed. 

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    The kingdom’s National Debt Management Centre’s long-term plan envisages 45%-60% of borrowing from domestic and international DCM, the latter comprising about $14bn-$20bn. 

    The Public Investment Fund sold $2bn of bonds on the London Stock Exchange in January, an issuance that was more than five times oversubscribed. In 2025, monthly Saudi debt issuance averaged $6.4bn a year, more than double the figure seen two years earlier. 

    Saudi banks’ interest in bonds is driven by a need to support loan activity, with credit outpacing deposits. Issuing bonds will help close a rise in the loan-deposit ratio, which is well above 100%. 

    “You would expect to see probably a lower level of issuance in Saudi Arabia, where the banks were contributing to a significant amount of issuance. They will probably see lower landing growth this year, which could result in lower overall refinancing needs,” says Damak. 

    The UAE is another prominent Gulf issuer that entered 2026 with a robust pipeline of DCM activity in the works. 

    Last year, issuance of $47.71bn absorbed a quarter of all GCC issuance, a 24% increase on 2024. That put it comfortably ahead of Kuwait on $23.7bn, and Qatar on $22.47bn, although one of the fastest increases in DCM issuance last year was from Bahrain, which raised $11.24bn, a 63% increase on the previous year.

    UAE DCM was expected to exceed $350bn this year, notes Fitch Ratings, supported by strong sukuk issuance and the need to diversify funding sources. Dollar sukuk issuance in the UAE last year grew on 21.4% in 2024.

    Ceasefire dependency

    Much will inevitably hinge on the evolution of the Iran conflict. Here, it may pay to take the long-lens view, say analysts. “The liquidity declines observed in the Middle East and North Africa and GCC sukuk are unlikely to be permanent,” says Fitch’s Al-Natoor. 

    “As stability returns and the ceasefire holds, liquidity is expected to gradually recover, although the pace of recovery will be heavily dependent on investor confidence and sentiment.”

    Al-Natoor emphasises that the market itself has not undergone a structural transformation. Instead, some investors have repriced risk and adjusted premiums to reflect heightened geopolitical uncertainty. 

    “This distinction matters, as the underlying fundamentals of GCC credit remain intact, with the majority of issuers holding stable outlooks. Notably, the number of GCC issuers placed on Rating Watch Negative increased during this period, reflecting elevated uncertainty.”

    Rating Watch Negative flags that the rating is under review and could be resolved either by affirmation or downgrade, depending on subsequent developments.

    “Perceptions and risk appetite may take time to recalibrate,” says Al-Natoor. 

    “Despite that, there has been some private placement activity during this period, which hints that investors may be selectively engaging with the market while monitoring developments. 

    “If current stability is sustained, a broader return to public markets could follow.”

    This reinforces the sense that it is the sustainability and longevity of the ceasefire that will be decisive in shaping both the pace and strength of market recovery. 

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    “The fundamentals remain solid, but longer-term effects will ultimately depend on post-war sentiment and market access,” says Al-Natoor. 

    “We continue to see subdued dollar-denominated issuance, although some local currency activity persists.” 

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  • Conflict tests UAE diversification

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    Commentary
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    The UAE entered 2026 as the region’s strongest economic performer, with GDP forecast at 5% and construction output at a record $59bn. The Iran conflict that began on 28 February did not simply damage assets; it stress-tested the structural assumptions underpinning that performance.

    This occurred across a clear fault line. Sectors with state depth behind them have largely held; sectors built on openness and connectivity have not.

    Banks entered the crisis in the best shape in a decade. Capital adequacy at 17.1% and a loan-to-deposit ratio of 77.7% as of Q4 2025 gave lenders genuine capacity to absorb the shock. Emirates NBD raised $2.25bn in syndicated financing in what it described as the tightest pricing in its history. This was a clear signal that international confidence in the UAE’s financial architecture, if not its near-term growth trajectory, remains intact.

    Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s capital programmes are also continuing. Gas processing expansion targeting 30% additional output capacity by 2030 is advancing through final investment decisions, even as Habshan – one of the programme’s key sites – sustained damage in the 3 April strikes. Infrastructure investment on a five-year horizon is not managed on six-week threat windows.

    Energy infrastructure took the most visible physical hit. Export routes through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained, Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al-Taweelah smelter faces up to a year of restoration, and the full damage assessment across Abu Dhabi’s industrial corridor is not yet complete.

    Aviation, tourism and trade logistics absorbed a simultaneous shock. Airline operational capacity dropped dramatically and is still working to find a new equilibrium. Hotel occupancy fell from a reported monthly average of 86% to a weekly average below 23% within a fortnight. Prior to the conflict, Jebel Ali was the most connected container port in the Middle East, and carriers have concentrated transshipment traffic there to mitigate Red Sea disruptions. The closure of Hormuz severed the hub and unmade the logic of the recent traffic consolidation.

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    What the ceasefire opens is a recovery window, not an immediate reversal of impacts. Traveller confidence, insurer risk pricing and carrier route economics do not normalise with a political announcement. The summer travel season, which begins in May, will provide the first measurable answer to how much of the pre-conflict model is recoverable – and how quickly.

     

    MEED’s May 2026 report on the UAE includes:

    > GVT &: ECONOMY: UAE economy absorbs multi-sector shock
    > BANKING: UAE banks ready to weather the storm
    > ATTACKS: UAE counts energy infrastructure costs
    > UPSTREAM: Adnoc builds long-term oil and gas production potential
    > DOWNSTREAM: Adnoc Gas to rally UAE downstream project spending
    > POWER: Large-scale IPPs drive UAE power market
    > WATER: UAE water investment broadens beyond desalination
    > CONSTRUCTION: War casts shadow over UAE construction boom
    > TRANSPORT: UAE rail momentum grows as trade routes face strain

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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  • Firms submit Qiddiya high-speed rail EPC prequalifications

    22 April 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City, in collaboration with Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP, received bids on 16 April from firms for the engineering, procurement, construction and financing (EPCF) package of the Qiddiya high-speed rail project in Riyadh.

    Firms interested in bidding for the project on a public-private partnership (PPP) basis have been given until 30 April to submit their prequalification statements, as MEED reported earlier this month.

    The prequalification notice was issued on 19 January, and a project briefing session was held on 23 February at Qiddiya Entertainment City.

    The Qiddiya high-speed rail project, also known as Q-Express, will connect King Salman International airport and the King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) with Qiddiya City. The line will operate at speeds of up to 250 kilometres an hour, reaching Qiddiya in 30 minutes.

    The line is expected to be developed in two phases. The first phase will connect Qiddiya with KAFD and King Khalid International airport.

    The second phase will start from a development known as the North Pole and travel to the New Murabba development, King Salman Park, central Riyadh and Industrial City in the south of the city.

    In November last year, MEED reported that more than 145 local and international companies had expressed interest in developing the project, including 68 contracting companies, 23 design and project management consultants, 16 investment firms, 12 rail operators, 10 rolling stock providers and 16 other services firms.

    In November 2023, MEED reported that French consultant Egis had been appointed as the technical adviser for the project. UK-based consultancy Ernst & Young is acting as the transaction adviser, and Ashurst is the legal adviser.

    Qiddiya is one of Saudi Arabia’s five official gigaprojects and covers a total area of 376 square kilometres (sq km), with 223 sq km of developed land. 

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    Yasir Iqbal