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Trump 2.0 targets technology

30 January 2025

 

As Donald Trump settles into his second term, dubbed ‘Trump 2.0’, the administration is set to bring about a seismic shift in global technology, artificial intelligence (AI) regulation, data sovereignty, cryptocurrency and the ever-escalating US-China tech war.

The central role that technology is expected to play was demonstrated at Trump’s inauguration on 20 January, where Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Alphabet Inc CEO Sundar Pichai and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos had prime seats.

With Trump championing policies prioritising domestic interests and reshaping international dynamics, Middle Eastern investors and companies will play a key role in shaping this new era of tech-infused geopolitics.

The wheels are already turning. On 22 January, just two days after Trump’s inauguration, he announced that Abu Dhabi- based AI-focused fund MGX has teamed up with US-based tech firms Oracle and ChatGPT creator OpenAI, and Japan’s Softbank, to form the Stargate project, which aims to invest $500bn to build AI infrastructure in the US.

When announcing the project, Trump described it as “the largest AI infrastructure project by far in history”.

America first

Two weeks earlier, on 7 January, Hussain Sajwani, founder and chairman of UAE-based Damac Properties and Damac Group, made headlines by pledging $20bn to develop data centres in the US.

Sajwani’s $20bn commitment to US data centres is not just a business transaction – it demonstrates the UAE’s strategic pivot to align with Trump’s America First policy. Unlike the real estate deals offered by Sajwani that Trump publicly declined in 2017, the latest investment offer places resources directly into the US, promising jobs, innovation and a fortified tech infrastructure in states including Texas, Ohio and Michigan.

For MGX, Sajwani and other Gulf investors, the deal offers not only financial returns but also political capital in an administration that values loyalty and mutual economic benefit. 

The timing is also strategic: as Trump prepares to loosen regulatory constraints on AI and data, Gulf nations have the opportunity to tap into US expertise while positioning themselves as indispensable partners in the rapidly shifting tech landscape.

Tech wars

Geographically and politically, the Middle East – particularly the GCC states – sits in the middle of the simmering tech war between China and the US, which may boil over during the Trump presidency.

The decoupling of the two economies is expected to continue, with Trump reinforcing policies that discourage US companies from engaging with Chinese firms.

Policies could involve stricter foreign investment vetting and expanded technology transfer restrictions to China. The Trump administration has also threatened to impose high tariffs on Chinese goods, which could disrupt the established ties between US and Chinese tech industries. 

The ongoing tensions could lead to a bifurcation of global supply chains, with significant implications for companies operating in both markets.

For Middle Eastern countries, this decoupling offers a rare window of opportunity. As the US and China distance from one another, GCC players can position themselves as neutral ground for technology partnerships. The region could bridge the two worlds by attracting global firms to invest in regional tech hubs that offer a haven for talent and innovation.

Trump’s America First policies are also expected to accelerate the development of the US semiconductor sector, a critical component of the tech war. While this could disrupt global supply chains, it may also create demand for GCC investments in US tech manufacturing and research facilities, further deepening economic ties.

Another transformative area of Trump’s second term will be his approach to AI.

On 13 January, just days before Trump took office, the White House issued a brief of a regulation by the Department of Commerce imposing controls on the exports of advanced computing integrated circuits that support AI.

The regulation’s final draft divides countries into three tiers. Chip exports to the top-tier countries, comprising 18 of the closest US allies, are “without limit”, while the third tier is reported to comprise countries of concern, including Macau (China) and Russia.

All other nations and states, including those in the GCC, are presumed to be mid-tier countries, where a cap of approximately 50,000 graphics processing units between 2025 and 2027, will apply.

Individual companies from these countries will be able to achieve higher computing capability if they comply with US regulations and obtain validated end-user status.

The White House brief is no longer available online, but a copy of the regulation can still be found in the Federal Register, the US government’s daily journal.

Middle Eastern investors and companies will [help shape] this new era of tech-infused geopolitics

Deregulation likely

The regulation-heavy approach of former president Joe Biden’s administration will likely give way to a deregulatory environment, emphasising commercial innovation over antitrust crackdowns.

For GCC countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, this presents a double-edged sword. Both nations have ambitious AI investment plans – Abu Dhabi’s MGX partnership with BlackRock and Microsoft aims to mobilise $100bn for AI infrastructure, while Riyadh’s Project Transcendence seeks to redefine the region’s technological footprint. Trump’s deregulatory policies could catalyse innovation and partnerships with US firms, offering access to cutting-edge AI solutions.

The emphasis on deregulation may also create challenges. Without robust ethical and safety guidelines, the global AI ecosystem could face reputational risks, making cross-border collaborations more complex. For the GCC, balancing the benefits of US technological advancements with the need for ethical AI development will be a delicate dance.

As geopolitical tensions rise, the effects of Trump’s focus on data sovereignty will reach far beyond US borders. Nations increasingly prioritise data protection, creating stricter regulations to control where and how data is stored, and the GCC, with its ambitious AI and data centre projects, must adapt swiftly to these changes.

The outlook for developing energy-hungry data centres in the US could be further bolstered by plans to deregulate the energy industry. 

“If energy deregulation is unleashed, the biggest beneficiaries of Trump’s energy policies could be in data centre buildout, with implications for US leadership in AI, both in next-generation technologies and economic dominance over the coming generation,” according to a report by GlobalData’s TS Lombard.

For Middle Eastern businesses, Trump’s policies could mean stricter requirements when working with US tech firms. Data from US companies and citizens may need to be stored domestically, complicating cross-border operations. 

However, this also presents an opportunity for the GCC states to bolster their data sovereignty frameworks, attracting investments from companies seeking alternatives to US or Chinese infrastructure.

The unexpected should be expected, and the future belongs to those who adapt the fastest

Backing Bitcoin

Cryptocurrency is another major opportunity for the GCC. 

Trump’s surprising endorsement of Bitcoin – the price of which recently surged past $75,000 – signals a potential shift in US crypto policy. A more favourable regulatory environment under Trump could drive mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies, attracting investors and innovators alike.

As regional players such as the UAE have been pioneers in blockchain technology, this could catalyse further growth. 

Dubai’s Blockchain Strategy 2025, aimed at positioning the emirate as a global blockchain hub, aligns well with Trump’s pro-Bitcoin stance. By collaborating with US firms and leveraging blockchain’s potential for financial and governmental applications, the GCC could cement its position as a leader in the cryptocurrency space.

As his backing of Bitcoin demonstrates, Trump’s position on tech issues is hard to predict. This was reinforced when he issued an executive order allowing social media application TikTok to resume services to its 170 million users in the US. 

On 18 January, the Chinese-owned app stopped working in the US after a law banning it on national security grounds came into effect. Trump had previously supported plans to ban the app. 

For business and government alike, the message is clear: the unexpected should be expected, and the future belongs to those who adapt the fastest.

As Trump reshapes the global tech landscape, GCC investors like Sajwani are well positioned to capitalise on the changes. The US-China decoupling, AI deregulation and a focus on data sovereignty create openings for Middle Eastern nations to assert themselves as key players in the global tech economy.

Challenges remain. Trump’s America First policies could lead to tighter restrictions on foreign investments, requiring Gulf investors to navigate a more complex regulatory environment. Additionally, the potential talent drain to the US, driven by Trump’s prioritisation of domestic commercial interests, could slow the region’s AI ambitions.

To stay competitive, GCC nations will need to double down on their investments in education, infrastructure and innovation. By fostering homegrown talent and creating favourable conditions for international partnerships, the region can mitigate the risks of Trump’s policies while reaping the rewards. 

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Published on 31 December 2024 and distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the MEED Yearbook 2025 includes:

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