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Transmission and distribution sector heads for record year

3 October 2024

The GCC region’s power transmission and distribution (T&D) sector is set to experience its best year in terms of the value of awarded contracts.

Based on data from regional projects-tracking service MEED Projects, the total value of awarded contracts for substations, control centres, overhead lines and cables across the six GCC states reached an estimated $13.8bn between January and September 2024.

This figure already exceeds by 81% the total value of contracts awarded in the preceding full year.

It also exceeds by 31% the total value of awarded contracts in 2021, which registered a record-high of $10.5bn in the 10 years starting in 2014.

Project activity within the T&D sector is expected to remain buoyant over the next few years, with roughly $35.9bn-worth of planned and unawarded contracts.

Of these, some $8.5bn are in the bid evaluation stage as of early October, with a further $6.5bn under tendering.

Some $12bn of projects are in the front-end engineering and design (feed) phase.

Energy diversification 

Ambitious national energy diversification and net-zero targets across the region, which traditionally relied almost entirely on thermal power plants, will spur significant investments in T&D infrastructure in the future.

According to experts, the ongoing expansion of electricity generation capacity across the region, particularly from renewable energy sources, requires a more robust, integrated and stable electricity grid.

This is in addition to the projected increase in electricity demand as most states expand their downstream and petrochemical sectors, develop new communities and megaprojects in remote regions, and build more data centres to support smart cities, and internet-of-things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI) applications.

The region’s largest economy, Saudi Arabia, for instance, aims for renewable energy to account for 50% of its electricity generation capacity by 2030.

Operational renewable installed capacity in the kingdom jumped from roughly 300MW in 2020 to 3,500MW this year, with a further 16,000MW currently under construction or about to start construction, and gigawatts more under tender.

Crucially, the kingdom’s energy minister confirmed earlier this year that the kingdom has plans to procure up to 20,000MW of renewable capacity every year, subject to demand.

Saudi Arabia is also ramping up its procurement programme for new gas-fired power plants, in line with a plan to decommission fleets running on liquid fuel and at the same time secure baseload as more renewable energy enters the grid.

There is also a marked increase in terms of T&D packages or contracts interconnecting the kingdom’s various regions from central Riyadh to the eastern, northern and southern provinces.

It comes as no surprise that the kingdom accounted for 72% of the $13.8bn-worth of T&D contracts awarded in the GCC region in the first three quarters of 2024.

Oman, which awarded T&D contracts with the same value as the UAE between January and September this year, has also been working to integrate its smaller electricity grids with the sultanate’s main electricity grid to boost electricity supply in its smaller, remote regions.

Unlike the noticeable peaks and throughs in T&D capital expense in other GCC states, the UAE’s spending has remained pretty consistent since 2014, averaging roughly $1.4bn annually. The exemption was in 2021 when a team comprising South Korea’s Kepco, Japan’s Kyushu Electric Power Company (Kyuden) International and France’s EDF won the contract to develop Abu Dhabi’s first high-voltage, direct current (HVDC) subsea transmission system.

It is worth mentioning that the completion of the four units of Abu Dhabi’s 5,600MW Barakah nuclear power plant this year and the expected completion of Dubai’s first hydropower plant in Hatta mean the UAE will have the most diverse energy sources for electricity generation among its peers.   

Power links

The goal to expand electricity trade within the GCC member states and with other countries such as Egypt, Jordan and Iraq is another key driver for T&D investments.

Work is under way to increase the capacity of the GCC regional grid and enable its member-states to procure backup or emergency capacity when the need arises. Kuwait availed of this in May when it purchased 500MW from the GCC grid in anticipation of its inability to meet peak demand in the summer months.   

An HVDC network linking Saudi Arabia and Egypt is under construction, which will allow bidirectional electricity trade as well as access to the wider European and African markets.

A second GCC link with Oman and a first link with Jordan are also planned. Another HVDC transmission project linking Neom in the northern tip of the Red Sea to Yanbu, stretching 605 kilometres, is under way.

It turns out that the need to invest in T&D infrastructure to support electricity generation capacity buildout, following years of underinvestment, is a global phenomenon.

Juan Diego Zuluaga, Suncolombia CEO, told the ongoing World Green Energy Summit in Dubai that there is a major mismatch between the buildout of transmission lines and electricity generation capacity.

Experts like Zuluaga think that failing to invest in T&D can potentially lead to issues such as curtailment or wastage in renewable power, particularly in the absence of suitable energy storage systems or efficient interconnections or electricity links.

Utility companies are under pressure not only to expand their transmission capacities and coverage but to make these infrastructure and facilities more efficient, too.

New technologies, most of them driven by IoT or AI, for instance, can be used to improve demand and supply management and forecasting, leading to improved grid performance.

“In this region, in particular, consumers expect 24x7 electricity supply. In fact, it is a given,” notes a senior executive with a European technology company. “The hope is for that to continue in the future.”

 

 

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Jennifer Aguinaldo

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    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

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