The way forward for the region’s energy transition

12 December 2022

Published in partnership with

Whichever way one looks at it, the world faces a climate emergency. In its most recent multi-agency report published in September, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warns that there is an almost one in two chance that the annual mean temperature in at least one of the next five years will be 1.5°C higher than the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. 

This figure is important because it would breach the maximum temperature rise set by countries under the terms of the 2015 Paris Agreement and underlines the lack of progress in reducing harmful emissions. 

“Floods, droughts, heatwaves, extreme storms and wildfires are going from bad to worse, breaking records with alarming frequency,” said UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres in the report.

“Heatwaves in Europe. Colossal floods in Pakistan. Prolonged and severe droughts in China, the Horn of Africa and the United States. There is nothing natural about the new scale of these disasters. They are the price of humanity’s fossil fuel addiction.”

There are multiple ways to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, with a common thread among them being using technology as a solution. 

Whether by making gas turbines more efficient, producing new low-carbon or carbon-free fuels such as hydrogen, increasing renewable energy output, or ensuring homes, towns and cities are ‘smarter’ in their use of electricity, technological innovation presents a means for countries to lower their carbon outputs

All [the reports] stressed we are not on track to keep climate change below 2 degrees, or even keep the 1.5 degree target within reach. More work needs to be done

Mohamed Nasr, Egypt's lead negotiator at Cop27

Scale of the problem

In the series of six articles MEED has published in association with Siemens Energy, we have explored the chief challenges the Middle East and Africa regions are facing in the fight against global warming and some of the opportunities and potential solutions to overcome them.

The first hurdle is recognising the scale of the climate challenge. The Siemens Energy Middle East & Africa Energy Week in June highlighted the disconnect between the perception of progress and reality, even among industry professionals. 

When asked to quantify CO2 reductions in their country today and what they will be in 2030 compared to 2005, Energy Week participants estimated that total emissions had fallen by 23 per cent on average over the past 17 years. Only one-third correctly answered that emissions had not only failed to fall, but had actually risen by 50 per cent over the same period. 

“All [of the reports] stressed that we are not on track to keep climate change below 2 degrees, or even keep the 1.5 degrees target within reach. More work needs to be done,” emphasised Mohamed Nasr, director of the Environment & Sustainable Development Department at Egypt’s Foreign Affairs Ministry and lead negotiator for Egypt at Cop27 during the event.

The harsh reality of the situation has underscored the pressing need for more rapid action among countries in the region. For the wealthier oil-exporting nations of the Middle East, much of the emphasis over the past 18 months has been placed on developing a green hydrogen industry to produce cleaner fuels. This is reflected by the more than 50 new green hydrogen projects announced in the GCC and North Africa over the past 18 months, which have an estimated investment value of more than $150bn. 

On the other hand, the priority for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa is very different as they battle the energy trilemma of extending affordable and reliable electricity provision to their populations. Spending billions of dollars on greenfield hydrogen developments and their associated infrastructure is not an option for many. Instead, the focus has generally been on smaller, off-grid renewable energy capacity to resolve the trilemma.

Working in tandem

Regardless of the approach adopted, the private sector recognises that companies need to work more collaboratively in the drive toward net zero. A case in point is the newly formed Alliance for Industry Decarbonization.

Announced in early September by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and Siemens Energy, the alliance has already grown nearly threefold from the original 13 international energy and industrial members. 

The new industry grouping aims to achieve country-specific net-zero goals faster by encouraging action to decarbonise industrial value chains and enhance the understanding of renewables-based solutions and their adoption by industry. 

The alliance met for the first time at Cop27, where its members played a prominent role in discussions and thought leadership. Ultimately governments recognise that without corporates worldwide investing in clean energy projects and technology, there is little hope that targets will be achieved.

The intergovernmental summit ended on 20 November with a historic accord on setting up a fund to help compensate poorer nations for the economic and social destruction caused by climate change. 

But while the agreement, a culmination of some 30 years of negotiations between developed economies and developing nations, was a major step in the right direction, there remains a lot more that needs to be done to avoid an environmental catastrophe, such as setting legally-binding emission reduction targets, for example. 

The good news is that technologies and know-how are increasingly available to solve many of these challenges.

What is now needed is the political will and collaboration among nations and companies to work together to overcome our greatest threat. 

In the words of Siemens Energy president and CEO Christian Bruch: “The energy transition is the biggest investment programme since the dawn of industrialisation. If governments, business and society work together, energy transition is a massive opportunity. There is no excuse for waiting any longer.” 

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    The scale and complexity of construction projects under way in the GCC region has attracted global attention. And while large-scale project announcements continue to dominate the headlines, the underlying risks – insufficient financing, harsh contract clauses and a tendency to delay dispute resolution – are often overlooked.

    Around the region, many contractors are experiencing difficulties once projects have started because they mistakenly believe they have the necessary in-house skillsets to navigate these complex issues.

    MEED has convened a panel of construction consultants and specialists to develop a checklist to help contractors and subcontractors operating in the region to navigate the market’s challenges as the sector moves into 2026.

    The proactive steps are aimed at positioning a company so that it can maximise recovery and mitigate threats posed by unresolved claims and poor commercial or contractual administration.

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    The regional market is characterised by several systemic issues that amplify risks for contractors. 

    The fundamental problem is finance. Projects frequently suffer because they are not fully financed from the start, which places financial strain on contractors. This problem is then compounded by the region’s traditional contractual environment, which means disputes are typically not finalised until well after jobs have been completed, creating cash flow problems for contractors, particularly near the end of such projects.

    Further financial strain is created by unconditional performance guarantees and retention. The combined requirement for advance payment bonds, a 10% performance bond and sometimes 5%-10% retention represents a significant draw on contractors’ cash flow. The growing tendency of employers to pull bonds further exacerbates the situation.

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    > Unrealistic timelines: Contractors set themselves up to fail by accepting unrealistic timescales on projects, despite the knowledge that the work often takes twice as long.

    > Deficient design: A major risk, particularly on high-profile projects, is a lack of specification and design progress. Many contracts, such as the heavily modified Silver Book – a standard contract published by the International Federation of Consulting Engineers (Fidic) for turnkey engineering, procurement and construction projects – presuppose that the contractor has sufficient information to design, build and deliver, even when there is substantive information missing, which renders lump-sum pricing obsolete and inevitably leads to dispute.

    > Lowest-bid mentality: Contractors often fail to factor necessary commercial support from legal and claims specialists into their tender figures, making their bid appear more competitive but leaving them without a budget to seek help until it is too late. As a result, projects are managed with budgets that are barely sufficient, rather than being run properly to a successful conclusion.


    Supply-chain erosion

    The quality and capacity of the subcontractor market, particularly in the mechanical, electrical and plumbing (MEP) field, has eroded significantly. 

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    The GCC remains a market of opportunity, but success in 2026 will belong to contractors that combine disciplined tendering, transparent commercial governance and early issue resolution. Optimism is not a strategy; preparation is. 

    A 10-point checklist for contractors in 2026

    1. Mandate contractual due diligence: Invest time and money into a thorough contract review before signing. Be prepared to challenge harsh clauses, particularly those unfairly allocating risk, such as unknown conditions and full design responsibility. Assume that bespoke rather than standard amendments govern your entitlement. Treat the special conditions as the real contract.

    2. Factor commercial support into the budget: Do not omit the cost of essential commercial support from the tender, such as quantity surveyor teams, quantum and delay specialists, legal review and claims preparation. Even if not visible in the front-line figures, this cost – which could be as low as 0.01% of the project value – must be factored in to ensure a budget for early and continuous engagement.

    3. Prepare a realistic baseline programme: Stop committing to programmes just to fit the tender. Develop a realistic programme from the start, identifying risks and including necessary code books to track delays early. Consider commissioning an independent programme review at the tender stage – this is common internationally and reduces later arguments about logic, durations and sequencing.

    4. Confirm project funding: Ensure that the project financing is fully in position before starting work. Many problems stem from projects that are only partially financed, leading to cash running out near completion. Gone are the days of not asking employers for greater transparency when it comes to funding projects.

    5. Establish a strong commercial and claims function: This is where commercial management starts. Set up systems to ensure contractual compliance, including seven-day claim notifications. Variations are inevitable, and proper substantiation is required to secure entitlement – if it is not recorded, it cannot be recovered. Diaries, cost records and notice logs remain the foundation of entitlement.

    6. Seek early specialist engagement: Prevention is better than a cure. Bring in specialists early to examine time and cost issues before problems arise. Consultants can provide advice, help set up the correct commercial systems and prevent the escalation of unresolved issues.

    7. Adopt an old-school approach to claims management: Technology is useful, but nothing beats resolving issues face to face. Engage directly with the employer’s team regularly to negotiate and agree claims early. This manages the client’s expectations when it comes to budgeting and allows the contractor to secure cash flow sooner. A simple early-warning culture – even when not contractually required – prevents surprises and builds trust with the client.

    8. Avoid wasting resources: Focus claims efforts only on events that are actually recoverable and demonstrably critical. Contractors often waste time chasing things that will not be recoverable. Prioritise issues that are both time-critical and clearly fall under the employer’s risk – everything else should be logged but not pursued aggressively.

    9. Upskill internal teams: Use specialist involvement as an opportunity to upskill your in-house commercial team. Have them sit alongside specialist consultants to learn proper commercial and contractual administration processes, creating a lasting work-culture benefit.

    10. Push for faster dispute resolution: When a dispute arises, advocate for a swift resolution mechanism like adjudication, mediation or expert determination to temporarily resolve cash flow issues. Dispute adjudication boards are intended to give quick, interim decisions. However, if not set up from the start of the project, the process becomes protracted – sometimes taking many months – so fails to provide the cash-flow relief contractors urgently need.  Where clients resist adjudication, propose interim binding mediation or expert determinations, or failing this, milestone-based dispute workshops – anything that accelerates getting cash back on site.

    MEED would like to thank Refki El-Mujtahed of REM Consultant Services (refki@rem-consultant.com; www.rem-consultant.com) for facilitating this article, as well as the following co-contributors:

    Aevum Consult | Lawrence Baker | lawrence.baker@aevumconsult.com | www.aevumconsult.com

    Decerno Consultancy | Lee Sporle | leesporle@decernoconsultancy.com | www.decernoconsultancy.com

    Desimone Consulting | Mark Winrow | Mark.Winrow@de-simone.com | www.de-simone.com

    Forttas | Derek O’Reilly & Martin Hall | derek.oreilly@forttas.com & martin.hall@forttas.com | www.forttas.com

    IDH Consult | Ian Hedderick | ian.hedderick@idhconsult.com | www.idhconsult.com

    White Consulting | Nigel White | nigelwhite@whiteconsulting-me.com | www.whiteconsulting-me.com

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    Saudi Arabia gigaproject developer, Diriyah Company, has signed a long-term land lease agreement with Riyadh Valley Company, an investment arm of King Saud University.

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    READ THE DECEMBER 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Prospects widen as Middle East rail projects are delivered; India’s L&T storms up MEED’s EPC contractor ranking; Manama balances growth with fiscal challenges

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the December 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > BAHRAIN MARKET FOCUS: Manama pursues reform amid strain
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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    Yasir Iqbal