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The way forward for the region’s energy transition

12 December 2022

Published in partnership with

Whichever way one looks at it, the world faces a climate emergency. In its most recent multi-agency report published in September, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warns that there is an almost one in two chance that the annual mean temperature in at least one of the next five years will be 1.5°C higher than the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. 

This figure is important because it would breach the maximum temperature rise set by countries under the terms of the 2015 Paris Agreement and underlines the lack of progress in reducing harmful emissions. 

“Floods, droughts, heatwaves, extreme storms and wildfires are going from bad to worse, breaking records with alarming frequency,” said UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres in the report.

“Heatwaves in Europe. Colossal floods in Pakistan. Prolonged and severe droughts in China, the Horn of Africa and the United States. There is nothing natural about the new scale of these disasters. They are the price of humanity’s fossil fuel addiction.”

There are multiple ways to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, with a common thread among them being using technology as a solution. 

Whether by making gas turbines more efficient, producing new low-carbon or carbon-free fuels such as hydrogen, increasing renewable energy output, or ensuring homes, towns and cities are ‘smarter’ in their use of electricity, technological innovation presents a means for countries to lower their carbon outputs. 

All [the reports] stressed we are not on track to keep climate change below 2 degrees, or even keep the 1.5 degree target within reach. More work needs to be done

Mohamed Nasr, Egypt's lead negotiator at Cop27

Scale of the problem

In the series of six articles MEED has published in association with Siemens Energy, we have explored the chief challenges the Middle East and Africa regions are facing in the fight against global warming and some of the opportunities and potential solutions to overcome them.

The first hurdle is recognising the scale of the climate challenge. The Siemens Energy Middle East & Africa Energy Week in June highlighted the disconnect between the perception of progress and reality, even among industry professionals. 

When asked to quantify CO2 reductions in their country today and what they will be in 2030 compared to 2005, Energy Week participants estimated that total emissions had fallen by 23 per cent on average over the past 17 years. Only one-third correctly answered that emissions had not only failed to fall, but had actually risen by 50 per cent over the same period. 

“All [of the reports] stressed that we are not on track to keep climate change below 2 degrees, or even keep the 1.5 degrees target within reach. More work needs to be done,” emphasised Mohamed Nasr, director of the Environment & Sustainable Development Department at Egypt’s Foreign Affairs Ministry and lead negotiator for Egypt at Cop27 during the event.

The harsh reality of the situation has underscored the pressing need for more rapid action among countries in the region. For the wealthier oil-exporting nations of the Middle East, much of the emphasis over the past 18 months has been placed on developing a green hydrogen industry to produce cleaner fuels. This is reflected by the more than 50 new green hydrogen projects announced in the GCC and North Africa over the past 18 months, which have an estimated investment value of more than $150bn. 

On the other hand, the priority for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa is very different as they battle the energy trilemma of extending affordable and reliable electricity provision to their populations. Spending billions of dollars on greenfield hydrogen developments and their associated infrastructure is not an option for many. Instead, the focus has generally been on smaller, off-grid renewable energy capacity to resolve the trilemma.

Working in tandem

Regardless of the approach adopted, the private sector recognises that companies need to work more collaboratively in the drive toward net zero. A case in point is the newly formed Alliance for Industry Decarbonization.

Announced in early September by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and Siemens Energy, the alliance has already grown nearly threefold from the original 13 international energy and industrial members. 

The new industry grouping aims to achieve country-specific net-zero goals faster by encouraging action to decarbonise industrial value chains and enhance the understanding of renewables-based solutions and their adoption by industry. 

The alliance met for the first time at Cop27, where its members played a prominent role in discussions and thought leadership. Ultimately governments recognise that without corporates worldwide investing in clean energy projects and technology, there is little hope that targets will be achieved.

The intergovernmental summit ended on 20 November with a historic accord on setting up a fund to help compensate poorer nations for the economic and social destruction caused by climate change. 

But while the agreement, a culmination of some 30 years of negotiations between developed economies and developing nations, was a major step in the right direction, there remains a lot more that needs to be done to avoid an environmental catastrophe, such as setting legally-binding emission reduction targets, for example. 

The good news is that technologies and know-how are increasingly available to solve many of these challenges.

What is now needed is the political will and collaboration among nations and companies to work together to overcome our greatest threat. 

In the words of Siemens Energy president and CEO Christian Bruch: “The energy transition is the biggest investment programme since the dawn of industrialisation. If governments, business and society work together, energy transition is a massive opportunity. There is no excuse for waiting any longer.” 

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    On 21 April, as a fragile ceasefire held between the US and Iran, the Trump administration halted a $500m shipment in cash headed for Iraq, as it sought to clamp down on Iranian-backed Shia militias in the country. 

    That cash, derived from Iraqi oil exports and routed via the US Federal Reserve to the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), is a vital cog in Iraq’s financial arteries, enabling it to cover foreign exchange demand.

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    Dollar pressure

    The recent halt in US dollar cash shipments has nevertheless added pressure to Iraq’s parallel currency market gap, says Lucila Bonilla, lead emerging market economist at Oxford Economics.  

    “The gap between the parallel exchange rate has widened noticeably against the official peg, to around 20%,” she says.

    “Dollar demand has risen as citizens and traders seek to hedge uncertainty – dollar deposits are up, and there are reports of a notable shift in the composition of cash holdings toward dollars.”

    Ratings agencies see the US move on Iraqi dollar use as a challenge, but one that might not prove too onerous.

    “Iraq can overcome a short-term war as it has $100bn of reserves and its debt profile is bearable,” says Gilbert Hobeika, a director at Fitch Ratings.

    “But a longer-term conflict will hurt Iraq as the economy is reliant on oil revenues and government involvement, while facing at the same time risk from the US stopping delivery of US dollars.”

    How persistent the pressure proves will depend largely on the duration of the Hormuz shock and how the relationship with the US evolves.

    “Forming a new government that is palatable to the US could ease the pressure, though Iraq’s protracted government formation process adds uncertainty to that timeline,” says Bonilla.

    The US-Iran war is putting even more pressure on banks.

    “There are uncertainties with regard to depositors,” says Hobeika. “The public sector banks have weak management and governance structures. Financial reporting is weak, and that puts pressure on asset quality and capitalisation.”

    If the conflict lasts a long time, the government will start withdrawing funds to pay salaries and contractors.

    “That will affect deposits at the public sector banks in the near term,” says Hobeika.

    State-heavy system

    Iraq’s banking system is dominated by a handful of state-owned banks with a market share of 75%-80%, and then 60-plus private banks competing for the remaining 20%-25% of the pie. 

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    “In 2019, we had a wave of Islamic banks getting bans on dealing with US dollars – reducing what had been a primary source of business.”

    A few private banks have benefitted since then, namely those with majority ownership by foreign banks such as National Bank of Iraq, a subsidiary of Capital Bank of Jordan, and Bank of Baghdad, a subsidiary of Jordan Kuwait Bank.

    “Supported by their affiliates, these banks are relatively well run compared to domestic peers and have ample capital buffers,” says Hanna.

    “They have captured a large market share of US dollar transfers thanks to their strong US correspondent banking relationships that allow them easier access to US dollars. They have seen a surge in their profitability and an increase in their deposit base.”

    Financial reform

    The CBI has attempted to introduce reforms to the banking system, as part of a wider effort to enable it to channel funding to the private sector.

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    “These systems take a long time to improve, and it costs the banks too. For that reason, they have agreed with the central bank to postpone implementation to 2027/28.”

    The expectation is that the number of private Iraqi banks will shrink from 60 to about half that number by 2028.

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    “The stakes are high as the IMF estimates that a comprehensive reform of the financial sector, alongside broader governance and regulatory changes, could double Iraq’s non-oil growth potential over the medium term, adding around 4 percentage points to GDP,” says Bonilla.

    “For now, the reforms address the plumbing. The structural transformation of a banking system to serve the private sector is still largely ahead.”

    Clouded outlook

    So far, Iraq’s financial system seems to have averted a worst-case scenario of large-scale deposit withdrawals related to the Iran conflict.

    Any deposit withdrawals seem to be more related to the introduction of a digital custom system ASYCUDA (Automated System for Customs Data) aimed at helping the government collect revenues, which saw a lot of traders trying to bypass the custom charges.

    “This drove some exporters or traders to source US dollars outside the banking system, in the parallel market, to avoid stricter requirements and up-front payment of customs duties. That has now eased,” says Hanna.

    Looking ahead, Fitch anticipates that most government financing is likely to come from the CBI through indirect purchases of government securities.

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  • Iraq LNG project delayed until next year

    13 May 2026

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    Iraq’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal, which has an estimated project value of $450m, is now expected to become operational in 2027 due to delays caused by the regional war and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

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    Iraq’s reliance on flaring associated gas instead of gathering and processing it has prevented the country from fully realising its potential as a gas producer and forced the Iraqi government to rely on costly gas and electricity imports from Iran.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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    Wil Crisp