meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

The death of political risk

25 July 2024

Commentary
Edmund O'Sullivan
Former editor of MEED

On 13 July, an assassin’s bullet missed Donald Trump’s head by an inch.

Three days later, speakers at the Republican National Congress, which nominated him as its candidate in this year’s US presidential election, heard calls for unwavering support for the assault on Gaza, despite the threat that it might spark a regional conflagration.

The previous week, Nato leaders shrugged off warnings from Russia’s President Vladimir Putin that the war in Ukraine could trigger a nuclear confrontation, and reaffirmed their support for the ejection of Russia from Ukrainian territory.

An oil tanker in the Red Sea being hit by a missile fired from Yemen on 15 July looked like a minor development in comparison. But it was another sign of the times.

What previously was unimaginable has become the new normal, and not just for those watching from the sidelines.

The markets – now the supreme judges of what is good or bad – think none of this matters much either. The Dow Jones Industrial Index opened higher following the failed assassination of Trump. The consensus was that his survival – not the attempt to end his life – was the real story.

What previously was unimaginable has become the new normal

Oil, in contrast, went down despite yet another assault on one of the world’s vital energy supply routes.

The Washington-based IMF is also sanguine. Its economic outlook report released on 16 July forecasts that world growth will quicken marginally next year to 3.3%.

Only precious metals markets suggest there may be doubts. Gold is up more than 20% since the start of the year, but this is probably more about inflation than perceptions of political risk.

Those who argue that prices of securities and commodities capture all relevant information about the course of world affairs have concluded that they signal there is nothing to worry about. The world will barrel ahead next year much as it did in 2024, regardless of further carnage in Gaza and Ukraine and twists in US politics.

But perhaps sensitivity to events has been dulled by the way they are now reported, particularly on social media.

Like tight-rope walkers, investors have become accustomed to risks that would be conventionally considered unacceptable. And there is always more money to be made in markets that rise.

In the spring of 2007, Lehman Brothers chief executive Dick Fuld said in Dubai that he had rarely seen so many positive forecasts for the world economy, though he admitted there were worries about trends in derivatives markets.

At least he acknowledged the contradiction. What he did not foresee was that it would be the bank he was then leading that would trigger the global financial collapse that came less than 18 months later. 

Connect with Edmund O’Sullivan on X

More from Edmund O’Sullivan:

> Italy at centre of new reduced Europe
> US foreign policy approach remains adrift
> Rainmaking in the world economy
> New shock treatment for Egypt’s economy
> Syria’s long march in from the cold
> Lebanon’s pain captured in a call from Beirut
> Troubled end to 2023 bodes ill for stability
> The Holy Land and delusions it inspires
> Region to mark golden jubilee of 1973 war
> Gulf funds help reshape football

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12208196/main.jpg
Edmund O’Sullivan

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Abu Dhabi announces $15bn infrastructure PPP projects

    12 May 2026

    The Abu Dhabi Investment Office and the Abu Dhabi Projects and Infrastructure Centre have launched a AED55bn ($15bn) public-private partnership (PPP) pipeline of 24 projects to be tendered in 2026 and 2027.

    The projects will be tendered across the transport, infrastructure and social sectors.

    According to a statement published by the Abu Dhabi Media Office, the transport sector accounts for 11 road projects, with AED35bn ($9.5bn) of construction capex, covering more than 300 kilometres of new and upgraded roads, tunnels, intersections and related network works.

    The infrastructure pipeline includes five projects budgeted at AED11bn ($3bn), covering dams, water storage, flood control, stormwater upgrades and urban landscaping.

    Social infrastructure includes eight projects budgeted at AED9bn ($2.5bn), covering sports facilities, specialist healthcare assets, schools and university campuses.

    The statement added that the pipeline forms part of Abu Dhabi’s infrastructure delivery plan and will be executed through PPP structures.

    It is also intended to support company establishment in the emirate, local content objectives, and supply-chain and industrial capacity.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16793904/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi Arabia tenders GCC rail link from Kuwait to UAE border

    12 May 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia has begun the procurement process to deliver its portion of the GCC railway, which will connect all six member states.

    Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) issued a tender for design consultancy services for the project on 7 May.

    The kingdom’s section of the railway will start at Al-Khafji in the Eastern Province, near the border with Kuwait, and end at Al-Batha, at Saudi Arabia’s border with the UAE. The route length in Saudi Arabia will be about 672 kilometres (km).

    The railway will interface with the Kuwait National Rail Road (KNRR) project on the Kuwaiti side. Last year, MEED exclusively reported that the KNRR design contract was awarded to Türkiye’s Proyapi Muhendislik ve Musavirlik Anonim Sirketi.

    The KNRR forms part of the wider GCC rail network. GCC railway projects have been progressing with renewed impetus since the six member states signed the Al-Ula Declaration in January 2021.

    In October last year, the Qatari cabinet approved a draft agreement paving the way for a railway link between Qatar and Saudi Arabia as part of the GCC railway network.

    GCC railway line

    Under the overall plan, the railway will span 2,186 kilometres, beginning in Kuwait, passing through Dammam in Saudi Arabia, reaching Bahrain via a planned causeway, and continuing from Dammam to Qatar, the UAE and, ultimately, Muscat via Sohar in Oman.

    The network’s route length within each member state is as follows: 684km in the UAE, 672km in Saudi Arabia, 306km in Oman, 283km in Qatar, 145km in Kuwait and 36km in Bahrain.

    The railway is designed for passenger trains travelling at 220 kilometres an hour (km/h) and freight trains operating at 80-120km/h.

    With high levels of project activity, governments in spending mode and renewed cooperation under the Al-Ula Declaration, the latest efforts to restart the GCC railway project may make more progress than previous attempts. If completed, the railway could prove transformational for a region that is globally connected but divided between its constituent parts.

    > Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16793841/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Kuwait tenders upstream oil project

    12 May 2026

    State-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) has tendered a contract to develop power infrastructure to provide electricity to the country’s Bahra oil field.

    The project focuses on constructing an 11kV, 72MW main intake in the Bahra-A area.

    It also includes the development of 11kV, 20MW substations in the Bahra-A2 area, and the conversion of a substation in the Bahra-A1 area in northern Kuwait.

    An initial meeting for the project is scheduled for 7 June, and bids are due by 9 August.

    Kuwait’s oil and gas sector has been severely impacted by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which all of its crude exports are normally shipped.

    The country recorded zero crude oil exports in April for the first time since the end of the Gulf War in 1991, according to shipping monitor TankerTrackers.com.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16792080/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Chinese company signs deal to develop Syria cement plant

    12 May 2026

    China’s Jiangsu Pengfei Group has signed a deal with Damascus-based Al-Hasan Holding Group (HHG) to develop a cement plant in Syria’s Raqa governorate.

    The “strategic agreement” was signed on 29 April, according to a statement from HHG.

    The clinker production line will have a capacity of 5,000 tonnes a day (t/d).

    Syria is seeking to expand cement production capacity to meet demand from the domestic construction sector.

    HHG is an integrated investment conglomerate headquartered in Damascus with a portfolio of companies across sectors including industry, trade, energy, construction, tourism and services.

    It was founded by the Syrian businessman Hassan Kamel Al-Hasan.

    Jiangsu Pengfei Group is a manufacturer of rotary kiln and grinding equipment.

    The company is involved in the design, manufacture and service of equipment in the fields of building materials, metallurgy and the chemical industry.

    It is also an engineering, procurement and construction service provider that has completed more than 100 cement production line projects.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16792079/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Libya’s national oil company takes control of key refinery

    12 May 2026

    Libya’s state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) has signed an agreement to take full control of the country’s Ras Lanuf refinery.

    The agreement marks the end of a decade-long dispute with UAE-based Trasta Energy.

    NOC has signed a final agreement with Trasta to end their partnership in the Libyan Emirates Oil Refining Company (Lerco), giving the NOC full ownership of the Ras Lanuf refinery and petrochemical complex, according to a statement.

    In its statement, NOC said the deal was one of the most important developments in Libya’s oil sector since the 2011 uprising and closed one of the industry’s most complex disputes.

    NOC also said that the deal has paved the way for a new phase of rehabilitation, operation and development.

    Some analysts have linked tensions in the partnership to political divisions in Libya and the UAE’s support for eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar.

    Lerco was established as a joint venture to operate and develop the Ras Lanuf complex, but operations were disrupted after Libya’s civil war, which started in 2011 and overthrew Muammar Gaddafi.

    The Ras Lanuf complex is located about 600 kilometres east of Tripoli on Libya’s northeastern coast and has the capacity to refine about 220,000 barrels of oil a day (b/d), which would make it the country’s largest if it comes online.

    It includes a refinery, storage facilities, export terminals and petrochemical units.

    Under the agreement, all of Trasta’s shares will be transferred to the NOC, allowing the complex to operate under full Libyan management.

    Political instability and security problems have led to repeated problems in Libya’s downstream sector over the past decade.

    On 10 May, it was announced that the Zawiya refinery, which is the country’s largest functioning oil refinery, and the nearby oil port were resuming operations after military clashes forced the refinery to shut down for two days.

    Azzawiya Oil Refining Company, which operates the facility, said it had decided to lift the state of emergency, allowing work to resume at the site.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16792076/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp