The commercial case for plastics recycling

23 June 2023

 

Establishing a circular plastics economy not only has the potential to mitigate the environmental pollution caused by plastics, but also presents a commercial opportunity for producers and consumers alike.

Devising an effective plastics recycling infrastructure could prevent over $120bn from being lost through plastic waste annually in the Gulf region, according to the Gulf Petrochemicals & Chemicals Association. 

GCC countries could reap significant socioeconomic benefits from developing a plastics recycling infrastructure. The sector is estimated to create about 1,500 direct jobs and have a $650m GDP impact for every million tonnes of plastic that is recycled. 

“By 2030, we project a global shortage of up to 25 million tonnes of recycled plastic,” say Devesh Katiyar, principal, and Jayanth Mantri, manager, at Strategy& Middle East, part of the PwC network. 

“This provides a unique opportunity for the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region to create a circular plastics economy by developing a dual feedstock advantage.  

“The region should focus on energy-intensive advanced recycling technologies as they confer a substantial cost advantage given the access to cheap and abundant renewable energy,” they add.

Region prepares for circular plastics economy

Commercial prospects

Although the commercial opportunities that plastics recycling offers remain largely untapped in the Gulf, recent initiatives and collaborations suggest that governments and industrial players are increasingly being drawn to the commercial case that a circular plastics economy presents.

Rebound, a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi-based investment fund International Holding Company, facilitated the launch of the Rebound Plastic Exchange in September 2022. It serves as a global business-to-business marketplace to trade recycled plastics and aims to enable the recycling of 5 million tonnes of plastic though the platform by 2025. 

Rebound also signed an agreement with Japan’s Jeplan in late May to jointly study ways to develop the polyethylene terephthalate (PET) recycling ecosystem in the UAE. The two firms signed a letter of intent for a demonstration project to build a PET chemical recycling plant in the UAE as part of the country’s preparation for hosting the 28th UN climate change conference (Cop28) in November.

During the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Switzerland in January of this year, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) announced it was considering investing in a commercial advanced recycling facility with a capacity of about 200 kilotonnes a year. 

In its recently released 2022 Sustainability Report, Sabic highlighted “plans already in motion to significantly upscale volumes of its Trucircle circular materials globally”. 

Trucircle is a portfolio of Sabic’s products, services and technologies that aim to prevent land and marine pollution resulting from plastics use and support stakeholders in the plastics value chain in the adoption of sustainable practices. Sabic aims to process 1 million metric tonnes of Trucircle circular materials a year by 2030.

Petrochemicals projects

Big-ticket petrochemicals projects in the Gulf are set to enter operations during this decade. These include the Borouge 4
project in Abu Dhabi, the Ras Laffan ethane cracking facility in Qatar, the Amiral petrochemicals and derivatives complex
by Satorp in Saudi Arabia and the Duqm petrochemicals scheme in Oman.

As suppliers of feedstock for the manufacturing of plastics, such projects hold the key to the development of a thriving circular economy, says Hani Tohme, managing director of Middle East and head of sustainability in the Mena region at Roland Berger, a Munich-based international management consultancy. 

“The growth in production could allow these companies to realise economies of scale, reducing per-unit production costs and offering competitive pricing on the global stage. 

“Furthermore, with the establishment of these petrochemicals complexes, the region could attract downstream industries, fostering local industrial development and creating new employment opportunities. This could lead to the creation of a robust ecosystem that supports and benefits from the petrochemicals and plastics industry,” he adds. 

To fully capitalise on these benefits, however, producers need to integrate sustainability into their operations. 

“By demonstrating a commitment to sustainable practices, such as using recycled plastic as feedstock, implementing carbon capture technologies and enhancing energy efficiency, Mena producers can differentiate their offerings in the global market. This commitment can open up opportunities in sectors that demand greener products and potentially enable access to future markets in a world that is moving towards circular economies,” he says. 

“The spike in plastics production could bring economic benefits to the Mena region but aligning these activities with global sustainability trends is vital for long-term success.” 

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Indrajit Sen
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    In a region where geopolitical turbulence has amplified by an order of magnitude, Jordan is managing to stand out as a beacon of relative stability, with the Hashemite kingdom’s banking sector acting as a case in point.

    Lending has grown in recent years, with credit up by an average 4.9% between 2020 and 2025, according to the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) – a faster rate than average nominal GDP growth of 2.3% over the same period.

    The IMF took care to note an increase in credit to the private sector in its latest Article IV assessment of Jordan, standing at 80.1% of GDP at end-2024, compared to just 66.6% 10 years earlier.

    Banks in the kingdom ended 2025 in a liquid state, but caution remains the watchword for local lenders. The loan-to-deposit relationship bears that out. For that year, deposits ended up 7.1% to JD50bn ($70.5bn), while credit facilities were up just 3.7% to JD36.1bn ($50.9bn).

    Analysts see this as a case of Jordanian banks being prudent, given the tricky operating environment and limited lending opportunities, rather than banks being excessively defensive. 

    According to Christos Theofilou, an analyst at Moody’s Investors Service, it is cautious lending in fraught macroeconomic conditions.

    “On the one hand, we’ve seen a structurally strong and stable deposit base that has been growing more compared to lending. That indicates a certain degree of limited risk appetite, but also the fact that, given the challenging operating conditions, there were limited business opportunities in the market,” says Theofilou.

    Liquidity banked

    Jordan’s banks look able to withstand further shocks, given solid capital positions and relatively strong earnings performances. Arab Bank, the largest lender, saw net profits grow 12% last year to $1.13bn, despite a highly charged geopolitical situation across Jordan and the neighbouring Palestinian territories.

    As Moody’s notes, Jordanian banks’ funding base remains stable, with banks mainly deposit-funded – with deposits at 67% of total assets as of December 2025 – mostly comprising well-diversified retail deposits. The ratings agency noted that banks retain the capacity to increase lending without relying on more volatile and costly external funding, as indicated by the 72% loan-to-deposit ratio.

    The earnings outlook in Jordan may be better than other banking sectors in the immediate region, but this does not translate into a picture of booming profits going forward.

    “Profits should remain resilient, but we’re not expecting any significant improvement,” says Theofilou. “We have the challenging operating conditions, and the lower interest rates that have come down over the past few years. On the other hand, banks have had lower provisioning in the past 12 to 18 months compared to the period prior to that.”

    Asset quality remains a strong point, despite some weakening over recent years. Moody’s sees non-performing loans (NPLs) falling below 5.5% this year from 5.8% in June 2025.

    However, the continuing Iran conflict and its deleterious regional impacts – including on the West Bank, where about 9% of Jordanian banks’ loans are located – suggest that bank exposures to troubled sectors will require focus.

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    Another challenge is the banks’ high credit concentration among large corporates, with a noted high exposure to real estate.

    Commercial and residential real estate loans accounted for 17.4% of total credit facilities as of year-end 2024, while residential mortgages accounted for 40.9% of household credit. Regulatory oversight may limit the impacts – the CBJ caps loans for real estate at 20% of local currency customer deposits.

    The real estate exposures are meaningful, but Moody’s views overall concentration risk as more material rather than real estate risk per se.

    “So, on the one hand, Jordanian banks have real estate loans, both commercial and residential, slightly below a fifth of the total credit facilities,” says Theofilou. “Banks also face challenges in quickly disposing of properties, but within the context of a relatively lengthy foreclosure process. On the flipside, we see Jordanian banks having fairly high collateralisation, so they do hold a lot of collateral against the real estate exposures.”

    The CBJ has earned plaudits for its regulatory oversight, with the IMF lauding its strengthening of the Financial Stability Committee, while refocusing its role on macroprudential policies and systemic risks. 

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    Last year, digital payment systems in Jordan recorded over 184 million digital transactions, exceeding $38bn in value. The CBJ has introduced an AI regulatory framework for the sector and the authorities are now working to burnish the country’s credentials as a fintech hub, based on a 90% plus internet penetration. 

    In the year ahead, Jordanian banks will be looking to find exposures to new lending opportunities, given the past risk aversion that has prevented them from building stronger growth avenues.

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    So long as the regional conflict persists, banks will be inclined more towards caution than exuberance in their lending approaches. And yet that strong and stable inclination may be what serves them best in a notably turbulent year in the Middle East’s recent history.

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