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The beginning of the end

27 August 2024

Commentary
Edmund O'Sullivan
Former editor of MEED

On 10 November 1942, UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill declared, following a British victory in Egypt, that: “[T]his is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

This epigram can be applied to events in the Middle East this autumn.

There have always been only four possible solutions to the Palestine tragedy. The first – a continuation of the occupation that has prevailed since 1967 – has always flown in the face of international law and Palestinian and Arab wishes. But what has killed it is Israel’s response to last year’s assault from Gaza. The majority in Israel is now rejecting occupation in the form that existed before and wants something different.

The second option – a two-state solution – enjoys almost universal international support, but this too is moribund. It was always fanciful that an agreement could be reached that dealt with the borders and powers of a Palestinian state, the status of Jerusalem, demands for the right of return of Palestinian refugees, and the growing number of Israelis living in the West Bank who have vowed never to leave.

The most credible attempt to deliver a Palestinian state, launched in Madrid in October 1991, was wrecked more than 30 years ago by former US president Bill Clinton. It was buried with the election of Benjamin Netanyahu for the first time, in 1996. 

Nothing in human affairs is inevitable. But hard choices are unavoidable

In July this year, Israel’s parliament voted against the establishment of a Palestinian state, but that is unsurprising. Only a minority of Israelis have ever been prepared to accept it in a form that satisfies even the lowest Palestinian aspirations.

The reality is that there are only two options, though it will take at least a generation for that to be finally acknowledged.

A single state where citizens have equal rights looks hopelessly impractical in light of entrenched views on all sides. Its advocates are deemed to be naive, stupid or malign – and probably all three.

But nothing can be more unacceptable than option four: ethnic cleansing and the brutality it must entail.

It will soon be the first anniversary of the 7 October 2023 attacks. A year is a short time in the Middle East. And yet there has been change in a process that too many still believe – despite all evidence – will not end in catastrophe.

Nothing in human affairs is inevitable. But hard choices are unavoidable.

If we have learned anything since last autumn, it is that however bad the options are, they will be inescapable in due course.

Recognising this truth is not the end, nor even the beginning of the end. But it is not a bad start.

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More from Edmund O’Sullivan:

> The death of political risk
> Italy at centre of new reduced Europe
> US foreign policy approach remains adrift
> Rainmaking in the world economy
> New shock treatment for Egypt’s economy
> Syria’s long march in from the cold
> Lebanon’s pain captured in a call from Beirut
> Troubled end to 2023 bodes ill for stability
> The Holy Land and delusions it inspires
> Region to mark golden jubilee of 1973 war

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Edmund O’Sullivan

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