Meed | Syria’s long march in from the cold

Syria’s long march in from the cold

21 February 2024

Commentary
Edmund O'Sullivan
Former editor of MEED

On 13 February, the US House of Representatives passed a resolution originally presented to congress last May that prohibits the US from normalising or recognising any Syrian government led by President Asad.

To make it binding in Washington, the resolution needs the support of both the Senate and the White House. But it is evidence that Syria’s long march from almost total isolation must navigate what looks like insuperable obstacles.

The vote was prompted by the decision in 2023 to readmit Syria to the Arab League, from which it was expelled for its reaction to the Arab Spring – an event Middle East regimes prefer to forget. They have a new regional crisis in the form of the war in Gaza and want to move on.

And so a fresh divide pitting America and its allies against the majority of the region is emerging.

Violence since 2011 has displaced half of Syria’s population. Almost seven million have left the country, most to Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan. Around three-quarters of Syria’s people require humanitarian assistance.

Sanctions, notably the US’ draconian Caesar Act of 2019, have compounded the damage done by almost 13 years of war, which is estimated to have caused the death of more than half a million people. Earthquakes last year in northwest Syria have added to the misery.

The Arab world has decided that the attempt to force Asad and his regime from power has failed and that a new approach is required.

This conclusion is shared by almost everyone else. The economic collapse in government-held areas where around 60 per cent of Syrians live is behind what seems like an endless flow of refugees into Europe. The number of Syrians in Germany has risen in the past decade from around 100,000 to almost one million and is politically consequential.

On 12 February, Cyprus’ President Nikos Christodoulides said it was time for the EU to designate parts of Syria as safe zones where refugees and migrants can return. There are even suggestions that some should be forced to go back.

But that is almost impossible in a country that is split into three warring parts: one ruled from Damascus with Russia’s support; a second backed by the US, where Kurdish and Arab rebels are dominant; and the third in the north-west that is a haven for anti-regime Jihadists aided by Turkey.

Every Syrian needs peace and a process that will make it permanent. And the closer you get to Syria, the more obvious that fact becomes.

Which is why lawmakers in Washington, well-intentioned as they claim to be, will probably be the last to see it.