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Syria wrestles fragile security situation

18 July 2025

 

A surge in violence in the southern Syrian province of Suwayda in mid-July has served as a reminder of both the fragile hold of the new government administration in Damascus over the country and the uneasy position of Syria’s minorities under it.

Recent events have seen armed clashes between members of the Bedouin and Druze communities in Suwayda Province, and subsequently also with government forces – killing hundreds – after intercommunal tensions spiralled out of control.

Simmering sectarian tensions between the region’s Druze and Bedouin populations first boiled over into armed conflict on 11 July after a Druze merchant was abducted from the highway. Though the individual was later released, the incident triggered a wave of retaliatory kidnappings and attacks between Bedouin and Druze communities. By 13 July, government checkpoints were also being attacked, triggering the Interior Ministry to dispatch security forces to stem the violence.

Over the following days, government forces also became entangled in the fighting, and Israel meanwhile took the opportunity of the chaos to conduct further strikes against the Syrian military on the pretence of protecting the Druze community.

On 16 July, after days of mounting casualties and accusations that the government had sided with Bedouin elements against Druze civilians, Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa released a statement condemning the violence and promising state accountability.

Later, the Druze council in Suwayda reached an agreement with Damascus for a local ceasefire, alongside a range of provisions for the restoration of local security and the establishment of a fact-finding committee to probe recent violations.

Two days later, on 18 July, renewed clashes between local groups saw the Druze council call for government forces to return to the area to enforce the peace – emphasising that the trouble in the south is likely still far from over.

Fragile stability

The escalation in intercommunal violence in Syria’s south has underlined the relative fragility of the uneasy calm that has settled over the country since the toppling of the Baathist government of Bashar Al-Assad in December.

The sequence of events also draws parallels with the violence in western Syria earlier in the year, in which government forces stepped in to stem violence involving the Alawi community but instead caused hundreds more casualties.

A key difference between the two episodes is that while the Alawi communities had largely voluntarily disarmed themselves, the Druze community has resisted its own disarmament, pointing to the government’s poor record in protecting minority groups.

The outcome, in turn, has been very different, with the government seemingly much more amenable to a negotiated solution – perhaps also helped along by the lessons learned as a result of the earlier spate of violent altercations in the coastal region.

There is another cause for Damascus’ swift push for a conciliatory, negotiated settlement: Israel’s clear interference in the country and attempts to incite the Druze community against the Syrian government.

Such a ploy falls in line with long-standing Israeli aspirations to expand its buffer along the border. Tel Aviv has openly stated its opposition to government forces operating south of Damascus, as well as its interest in furthering Druze autonomy in the area.

On 16 July, Israel bombed the main military staff headquarters in Damascus and threatened to proceed with further attacks on the capital if government forces did not withdraw from Suwayda. While the act drew international condemnation as a violation of Syrian sovereignty, it also showed the extreme latitude that Israel has become accustomed to operating with as it partially occupies southern Syria.

To date, both the Syrian government and Syrian Druze community leadership have nevertheless remained in alignment in resisting the Israeli tactics of division. Even so, given how fast-moving the situation in the south is, it will require a steady hand to contain.

Nor is it Syria’s only flashpoint. In the northeast, Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces remain at odds over how best to achieve the agreed-upon integration of the latter’s forces under the Syrian government’s central command.

Meanwhile in the capital, the looseness of the Syrian government’s grip on the security situation was also highlighted in late June by the bombing of a church in central Damascus by Sunni extremist group Saraya Ansar Al-Sunnah.

Uneasy partnerships

Given the existing challenges that the government already faces in attempting to knit the country back together both economically and politically, ongoing outbursts of sectarian tension and unpredictable terrorist attacks are disruptions it can ill afford.

Al-Sharaa’s task is being made more difficult by the scepticism that many minority groups have towards a government – not to mention the rank and file of the police and military – that contains significant numbers of former militant Islamist group members.

Still, the Syrian government’s uneasy partnership with the Kurds and its more recent compact with the Suwayda Druze council show that the senior political leadership is coming around to the advantages of the negotiations table over the battlefield.

It is perhaps also because Al-Sharaa knows that as quickly as he was able to get the Western powers to repeal sanctions on Syria, any actions that refresh international consternation could just as easily see sanctions snapped back into place.

Al-Sharaa must enforce the law convincingly and without fault if he is to maintain the peace and ensure that the country’s enemies – both within and without – do not find an opportunity to once again unravel Syria at the seams.

READ THE JULY 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

UAE and Turkiye expand business links; Renewed hope lies on the horizon for trouble-beset Levant region; Gulf real estate momentum continues even as concerns emerge

Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

> PROJECTS MARKET: GCC projects market collapses
> GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index continues climb
To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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John Bambridge

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