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Syria makes progress towards reunification

24 April 2025

 

Following the ousting of Bashar Al-Assad in late 2024, President Ahmed Al-Sharaa has rapidly consolidated power in Syria. He has transitioned from a militant and political outsider into a credible leader increasingly recognised in the region and on the world stage.

Within Syria, Al-Sharaa faces political, economic, military and civil challenges in pulling the country back together again. In recent weeks, a prominent focus has been the reunification of Syria’s fractured security landscape through the negotiated dissolution and integration of smaller rebel factions into a centralised military structure under the Ministry of Defence.

Rebel disbandment

Most recently, the new government brokered the dissolution of the Eighth Brigade, a 3,000-strong rebel group based in the southern city of Daraa that had waged an insurgency against the government of Bashar Al-Assad since 2018.

That outcome proved a relief to the government after its trustworthiness in talks was thrown into doubt by the chaos that erupted in Syria’s coastal region on 6 March as Islamist groups committed massacres against Alawite civilians in revenge over attacks by Assad loyalists.

On 9 March, Al-Sharaa appointed a committee to report on the violence, determine its perpetrators and theoretically hold them to account. That move caused some murmurings within his own ranks, but externally it showed the president’s commitment, in principle, to justice.

It also appeared to serve the political imperatives of the moment. Just a day later, on 10 March, the reassured Kurdish- led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – representing tens of thousands of trained soldiers – signed a deal to integrate its forces into the national army.

The deal marked perhaps the most significant step towards national reunification so far, promising to restore to government control a swathe of northeastern Syria and its oil fields that has been largely lost to Damascus since the 2014 invasion by the Islamic State.

The integration of the SDF into the national military also appears to have been accepted by the US, which had been supporting the SDF military as an independent force in the northeast of the country, but has now announced the planned staggered withdrawal of its stationed troops.

Al-Sharaa has been making his rounds of the region in a diplomatic blitz aimed at shoring up regional support for his new government

Broader priorities

Alongside reconsolidating and restructuring the country’s military and security apparatus, Al-Sharaa’s main priorities are foreign affairs and economic policy. These two areas go hand in hand, given that removing international sanctions is key to reviving Syria’s economy.

In late March, Al-Sharaa entrenched his authority by enacting a new constitutional declaration, announcing a new transitional government and granting himself sweeping executive powers, including the right to appoint a third of the legislature and select judges for the constitutional court.

The cabinet was also broadened and reshuffled to address concerns over the lack of representation from minority communities. Individuals from the Alawite, Druze and Christian communities, as well as one woman, were appointed to ministerial positions.

The move further witnessed the replacement of the formerly appointed justice minister Shadi Al-Waisi, whose elevation embarrassed the government after 2015 videos surfaced of him presiding over street executions by morality police as part of the then Nusra Front. His removal was another reassuring step for observers that the government is attuned and reactive to constructive criticism.

With the right signals sent, Al-Sharaa has been making his rounds of the region in a diplomatic blitz aimed at shoring up regional support for his new government. He is likely also aiming to put the right words in the right ears, in the hope that they filter through the Gulf’s power lobbying system to the US.

Already on 30 January, just a day after Al-Sharaa became president, Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani flew to greet the man who displaced Al-Assad – a goal also long pursued by Doha. On 2 February, Al-Sharaa then took his first trip abroad to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Some other regional governments have been more reticent to launch into renewed relations, but have increasingly come on board.

This includes Iraq, which, hesitant over Al-Sharaa’s past militant activity against Baghdad, only arranged a meeting between the Syrian president and Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani on 17 April in Doha – ultimately driven by shared security imperatives. Al-Sudani also invited Al-Sharaa to attend the upcoming Arab summit in Baghdad in May.

On 14 April, the equally green Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam also met with Al-Sharaa in Damascus – no doubt keen to address the recent border clashes between the two countries. A day earlier, Al-Sharaa was in Abu Dhabi to meet Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, rounding out his visits to the key power brokers and budget holders in the Gulf.

Between all of these meetings, Al-Sharaa appears to have ingratiated himself with the region’s other leaders with remarkable rapidity and ease. A year after the Arab League reaccepted him in May 2023, Al-Assad had made little comparable progress.

For world leaders weary from years of dithering by Al-Assad’s government, which was unable or unwilling to even acquiesce to the Gulf’s most basic request – to stem the flow of the drug captagon from within Syria’s borders – Al-Sharaa is at least a partner who can do that and achieve far more besides. 

For years, it has been the case that a reunified Syria and a rebuilt Syrian economy would lift the entire Levant region and any Gulf investors with it. The appetite in the region to see it succeed has been there. All that has been missing is a suitable partner in Damascus to move forward with.

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John Bambridge

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    Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has published its audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025, the first full set of annual results to follow the board’s approval of the fund’s 2026-30 strategy.

    The results show a sharp improvement in profitability last year even as leverage rose and volatility in its listed equity holdings widened. The performance helps explain the strategic shift towards capital discipline and focus on private sector partnerships set out in April.

    In April, PIF’s board, chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Al-Saud, approved a new five-year strategy structured around three portfolios, the Vision Portfolio, the Strategic Portfolio and the Financial Portfolio, and organised around six domestic ecosystems: tourism, travel and entertainment; urban development and liveability; advanced manufacturing and innovation; industrials and logistics; clean energy, water and renewables infrastructure; and Neom as a standalone ecosystem.

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    The strategy followed a period of reprioritisation across PIF’s gigaproject portfolio and set out a renewed emphasis on private capital, with PIF stating it would “further enable the role of the private sector as an effective partner for sustainable economic development”.

    PIF’s consolidated profit for 2025 rose to SR65.2bn ($17.4bn) in 2025, up 152% from SR25.8bn in 2024. The increase was driven by operating profit more than doubling, to SR78bn from SR34.7bn, as revenue growth outpaced cost of revenue and general and administrative expenses moderated relative to the prior year. Profit attributable to the owner of the fund rose to SR46.4bn, up from just SR1bn in 2024, a swing that accounts for most of the year-on-year improvement.

    Total revenue, comprising SR312bn of operating revenue and SR137.9bn of income from investment activities, rose 8.8% to SR449.9bn. Core operating revenue alone was up 9.9%, from SR284bn in 2024.

    Segment mix                                                     

    The segment breakdown shows where that growth came from, and it lines up closely with the six ecosystems named in the 2026-30 strategy. Banking and financial services remained the largest single revenue line at SR85.3bn, followed by telecommunications at SR76.8bn ($20.5bn), which was down slightly on 2024. Mining revenue rose 19.3% to SR38.8bn, consistent with the strategy’s focus on industrials and logistics, while revenue from electronic gaming and related services held broadly flat at SR15.6bn, an area PIF governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan specifically cited as a sector for strategic investment alongside artificial intelligence and renewable energy. Agricultural and livestock revenue nearly tripled, to SR7.6bn from SR2.5bn, and revenue from events operations rose to SR7.6bn from SR6bn, both pointing to the diversification into domestic ecosystems the strategy describes. Real estate operations revenue and revenue from advanced electronics and aerospace both declined slightly year-on-year.

    Total assets grew 5.1% to SR4.54tn from SR4.32tn, continuing the expansion PIF has reported since 2015, when the strategy document put assets under management at $150bn, against more than $900bn today. The two figures are not directly comparable, since the IFRS consolidated balance sheet captures the full assets of consolidated subsidiaries such as the fund’s banking, telecommunications and mining operations, while PIF’s publicly cited assets-under-management figure uses a different valuation methodology, but both point to the same order of scale.

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    Total liabilities rose 16.7%, to SR1.91tn from SR1.64tn, driven mainly by loans and borrowings, which climbed 27.2% to SR725.3bn from SR570.4bn. Property, plant and equipment grew 6.3%, to SR429.6bn, reflecting continued capital spending across PIF’s real estate and gigaproject portfolio, including the stadium, hospitality and urban development programmes.

    Strategy context

    The scale of PIF’s investment activity in the run-up to 2025 is set out in the April strategy announcement rather than the financial statements themselves. Between 2021 and 2025, PIF says it invested more than $199bn in new projects in Saudi Arabia, contributed $243bn to real non-oil GDP and spent more than $157bn with the local private sector, alongside growing assets under management six-fold and delivering an annualised total shareholder return of more than 7% since 2017. Read against the 2025 results, the rise in mining, gaming, agricultural and events revenue is an early indication that this domestic ecosystem investment is beginning to show up in operating performance, even as the wider balance sheet shows the cost of that expansion in higher borrowing and greater sensitivity to listed equity markets.

    The results reinforce a theme demonstrated by PIF’s ongoing award of construction contracts for Expo 2030, the 2034 Fifa World Cup and other gigaprojects in the kingdom. Growth is increasingly funded through a combination of retained earnings, debt and, with the new strategy, private co-investment, rather than balance-sheet expansion alone. The explicit retention of Neom as a named ecosystem in the 2026-30 strategy, despite the cancellation of several Trojena contracts and the loss of the Asian Winter Games over the past year, suggests PIF intends to continue funding the project, but within a more disciplined framework most likely centred on industrial development around the Port of Neom, which is also known as Oxagon.

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  • UAE to add Ajman to its Etihad Rail passenger network

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    • 30 June 2026: Introductory operational phase begins with services between Abu Dhabi and Fujairah only
    • 30 September 2026: Passenger rail services formally commence and expand to include Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Al-Dhaid and Fujairah
    • 30 December 2026: Services extend to Al-Dhafra stations
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    In response to MEED’s request for comment on the Ajman section, Etihad Rail said:

    “Etihad Rail remains committed to supporting the UAE’s vision for an integrated, efficient and sustainable transport network that enhances connectivity between communities and supports the nation’s long-term economic and social development.

    “As previously announced, Etihad Rail’s passenger services are being introduced in phases, with further expansion planned over time. We do not comment on market speculation, commercial discussions, procurement activity, or projects that have not been formally announced.

    “Any updates regarding future developments will be communicated through official channels in due course.”

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  • IHC deepens India links with $11.5bn aluminium venture

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  • Local contractor wins DIFC tower contract

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    Dubai-based contractor Al-Basti & Muktha has been awarded a contract to build the DIFC Heights Tower mixed-use development.

    The state-backed Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) awarded the contract.

    The project comprises a 43-storey building with 366 residential units, office space, and retail and food-and-beverage outlets. Construction is expected to commence shortly, with completion slated for 2029.

    Enabling works are under way and are being undertaken by Germany’s Bauer.

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    Earlier this year, Dubai announced a AED100bn ($27bn) expansion of DIFC through the creation of the DIFC Zabeel District. A statement from the Government of Dubai Media Office said the new district will add more than 7 million square feet (sq ft), bringing total gross floor area to 17.7 million sq ft.

    The Zabeel District is expected to more than double DIFC’s capacity to more than 42,000 businesses, support a workforce exceeding 125,000, and allocate more than 1 million sq ft for future technologies and artificial intelligence. Planned in six phases, the expansion is scheduled to open to the public in 2030, with the masterplan due for completion in 2040.

    A bridge will link the DIFC Zabeel District to the existing DIFC Gate District.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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    Yasir Iqbal