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Syria makes progress towards reunification

24 April 2025

 

Following the ousting of Bashar Al-Assad in late 2024, President Ahmed Al-Sharaa has rapidly consolidated power in Syria. He has transitioned from a militant and political outsider into a credible leader increasingly recognised in the region and on the world stage.

Within Syria, Al-Sharaa faces political, economic, military and civil challenges in pulling the country back together again. In recent weeks, a prominent focus has been the reunification of Syria’s fractured security landscape through the negotiated dissolution and integration of smaller rebel factions into a centralised military structure under the Ministry of Defence.

Rebel disbandment

Most recently, the new government brokered the dissolution of the Eighth Brigade, a 3,000-strong rebel group based in the southern city of Daraa that had waged an insurgency against the government of Bashar Al-Assad since 2018.

That outcome proved a relief to the government after its trustworthiness in talks was thrown into doubt by the chaos that erupted in Syria’s coastal region on 6 March as Islamist groups committed massacres against Alawite civilians in revenge over attacks by Assad loyalists.

On 9 March, Al-Sharaa appointed a committee to report on the violence, determine its perpetrators and theoretically hold them to account. That move caused some murmurings within his own ranks, but externally it showed the president’s commitment, in principle, to justice.

It also appeared to serve the political imperatives of the moment. Just a day later, on 10 March, the reassured Kurdish- led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – representing tens of thousands of trained soldiers – signed a deal to integrate its forces into the national army.

The deal marked perhaps the most significant step towards national reunification so far, promising to restore to government control a swathe of northeastern Syria and its oil fields that has been largely lost to Damascus since the 2014 invasion by the Islamic State.

The integration of the SDF into the national military also appears to have been accepted by the US, which had been supporting the SDF military as an independent force in the northeast of the country, but has now announced the planned staggered withdrawal of its stationed troops.

Al-Sharaa has been making his rounds of the region in a diplomatic blitz aimed at shoring up regional support for his new government

Broader priorities

Alongside reconsolidating and restructuring the country’s military and security apparatus, Al-Sharaa’s main priorities are foreign affairs and economic policy. These two areas go hand in hand, given that removing international sanctions is key to reviving Syria’s economy.

In late March, Al-Sharaa entrenched his authority by enacting a new constitutional declaration, announcing a new transitional government and granting himself sweeping executive powers, including the right to appoint a third of the legislature and select judges for the constitutional court.

The cabinet was also broadened and reshuffled to address concerns over the lack of representation from minority communities. Individuals from the Alawite, Druze and Christian communities, as well as one woman, were appointed to ministerial positions.

The move further witnessed the replacement of the formerly appointed justice minister Shadi Al-Waisi, whose elevation embarrassed the government after 2015 videos surfaced of him presiding over street executions by morality police as part of the then Nusra Front. His removal was another reassuring step for observers that the government is attuned and reactive to constructive criticism.

With the right signals sent, Al-Sharaa has been making his rounds of the region in a diplomatic blitz aimed at shoring up regional support for his new government. He is likely also aiming to put the right words in the right ears, in the hope that they filter through the Gulf’s power lobbying system to the US.

Already on 30 January, just a day after Al-Sharaa became president, Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani flew to greet the man who displaced Al-Assad – a goal also long pursued by Doha. On 2 February, Al-Sharaa then took his first trip abroad to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Some other regional governments have been more reticent to launch into renewed relations, but have increasingly come on board.

This includes Iraq, which, hesitant over Al-Sharaa’s past militant activity against Baghdad, only arranged a meeting between the Syrian president and Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani on 17 April in Doha – ultimately driven by shared security imperatives. Al-Sudani also invited Al-Sharaa to attend the upcoming Arab summit in Baghdad in May.

On 14 April, the equally green Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam also met with Al-Sharaa in Damascus – no doubt keen to address the recent border clashes between the two countries. A day earlier, Al-Sharaa was in Abu Dhabi to meet Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, rounding out his visits to the key power brokers and budget holders in the Gulf.

Between all of these meetings, Al-Sharaa appears to have ingratiated himself with the region’s other leaders with remarkable rapidity and ease. A year after the Arab League reaccepted him in May 2023, Al-Assad had made little comparable progress.

For world leaders weary from years of dithering by Al-Assad’s government, which was unable or unwilling to even acquiesce to the Gulf’s most basic request – to stem the flow of the drug captagon from within Syria’s borders – Al-Sharaa is at least a partner who can do that and achieve far more besides. 

For years, it has been the case that a reunified Syria and a rebuilt Syrian economy would lift the entire Levant region and any Gulf investors with it. The appetite in the region to see it succeed has been there. All that has been missing is a suitable partner in Damascus to move forward with.

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John Bambridge

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    Foreign interest in Syria’s oil and gas sector is growing as the government moves to revive the industry and elevated global energy prices improve the economics of new developments.

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    However, despite growing optimism, significant security, financial and regulatory challenges remain, which could constrain the pace of growth for years to come.

    Military control

    Optimism among foreign businesses about potential opportunities in the country was boosted in January this year when Syria’s central government regained control of most of the country’s oil and gas assets.

    On 13 January 2026, the Syrian government launched an offensive against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the territories of the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria.

    The offensive was initially focused on eastern Aleppo Governorate, around the towns of Deir Hafer and Maskanah, and was expanded on 17 January to include Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor and Al-Hasakah Governorates.

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    Wider market

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    Disruption in the waterway – which normally transports about 20 million barrels a day (b/d) of oil and refined products, as well as around 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas – triggered a surge in global energy prices and sent oil companies scrambling to develop resources that did not rely on the strait as an export route.

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    Syria’s production currently stands at around 110,000 b/d, down from a peak of 380,000 b/d in 2011, according to a report published by the US-Syria Business Council in April.

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    He said: “Before the takeover of the northeast, we were producing 10,000-15,000 b/d.

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    SPC said that it had, together with Chevron and UCC Holding, defined the boundaries of the offshore block, paving the way for finalising contracts and starting technical operations this year.

    The three companies previously signed a preliminary deal in February to evaluate offshore oil and gas exploration in Syrian waters.

    On 12 May, France’s TotalEnergies, state-owned QatarEnergy and US-based ConocoPhillips signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with SPC relating to the exploration of Syria’s offshore Block 3.

    Under the terms of the preliminary deal, the companies will carry out a technical review of the area.

    The agreement also established a framework for technical and commercial discussions related to exploration activities on the block.

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    At the time, Qiblawy said the agreement was expected to boost the country’s gas production by 4-5 million cubic metres a day within a year.

    On 8 May, the Croatian oil company INA and Hungary’s MOL announced that they had held a series of meetings with SPC focused on exploring options to restart INA’s oil and gas operations in Syria.

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    In 2011, oil and gas production at INA’s Syrian concessions had reached 37,300 barrels of oil equivalent a day.

    By the time the company suspended operations in Syria in 2012, it had invested approximately $1.1bn in the country and had built a gas processing plant at the Hayan gas field.

    Resuming activities

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    Gulfsands is the official operator of Syria’s Block 26, but for 15 years after the start of the Syrian civil war, it could not access the asset.

    The company declared force majeure in late 2011 and, until recently, it was under the control of the Kurdish-led SDF.

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    He added: “This development provides a strong foundation for the recommencement of operations and investment.

    “We are now back on the ground in Syria, working closely with SPC to accelerate towards a full resumption of activities.”

    Bell also said that, as a result of a global drive to diversify away from “traditional choke points like the Strait of Hormuz”, Syria had the potential to become “a new world energy hub”.

    In April, Saudi Arabia’s ADES Holding Company signed an implementation contract with SPC to develop several gas fields in Syria.

    In a statement, SPC said the scope of the deal with ADES included executing maintenance and development works on existing wells, in addition to drilling new exploratory wells within the agreed operational areas.

    It added that it expected the deal to increase gas production by 25% within the first six months and by 50% by the end of this year.

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    In April, a statement from the US-Syria Business Council said an MoU with HKN was “in the pipeline”.

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    Commenting on his company’s plans in Syria, Argent LNG’s chief executive said: “We're very excited to be realising the visions of US President Donald Trump and Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, bringing the country forward from darkness to light.”

    In a separate statement in April, Hunter Hunt, chief executive and chairman of Hunt Oil Company, said: “President Sharaa’s vision is bold, it is comprehensive, and it is full of execution and getting things done … We like what we see on a forward-looking basis.”

    Challenges remain

    While SPC’s Qiblawy has outlined ambitious targets to increase oil and gas production and international interest in the sector is growing, significant obstacles remain.

    A report published by the US-Syria Business Council in April highlighted several risks facing prospective projects. Among the most significant is the threat posed by Islamic State, particularly to pipeline infrastructure crossing remote desert regions.

    The report warned that securing large stretches of sparsely populated territory remains difficult, increasing the risk of attacks on critical energy infrastructure.

    It also highlighted the possibility of renewed conflict in northeastern Syria, where the SDF previously controlled many of the country’s most important oil and gas assets. According to the report, the current ceasefire remains fragile and any deterioration in relations could reignite territorial disputes.

    Beyond security concerns, international investors continue to face substantial financial and regulatory hurdles.

    Although sanctions on Syria have been eased considerably, the country remains designated by the US as a State Sponsor of Terrorism. As a result, licences are still required for many controlled exports, including oilfield equipment, software and technology.

    Restrictions also remain on support from international financial institutions. The US Export-Import Bank and the US International Development Finance Corporation continue to face limitations on their ability to support projects in Syria, constraining access to capital for large-scale developments.

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    For international energy companies seeking opportunities outside traditional export routes and geopolitical chokepoints, Syria is increasingly emerging as a market with significant long-term potential, albeit one accompanied by substantial risk.

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