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Syria makes progress towards reunification

24 April 2025

 

Following the ousting of Bashar Al-Assad in late 2024, President Ahmed Al-Sharaa has rapidly consolidated power in Syria. He has transitioned from a militant and political outsider into a credible leader increasingly recognised in the region and on the world stage.

Within Syria, Al-Sharaa faces political, economic, military and civil challenges in pulling the country back together again. In recent weeks, a prominent focus has been the reunification of Syria’s fractured security landscape through the negotiated dissolution and integration of smaller rebel factions into a centralised military structure under the Ministry of Defence.

Rebel disbandment

Most recently, the new government brokered the dissolution of the Eighth Brigade, a 3,000-strong rebel group based in the southern city of Daraa that had waged an insurgency against the government of Bashar Al-Assad since 2018.

That outcome proved a relief to the government after its trustworthiness in talks was thrown into doubt by the chaos that erupted in Syria’s coastal region on 6 March as Islamist groups committed massacres against Alawite civilians in revenge over attacks by Assad loyalists.

On 9 March, Al-Sharaa appointed a committee to report on the violence, determine its perpetrators and theoretically hold them to account. That move caused some murmurings within his own ranks, but externally it showed the president’s commitment, in principle, to justice.

It also appeared to serve the political imperatives of the moment. Just a day later, on 10 March, the reassured Kurdish- led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – representing tens of thousands of trained soldiers – signed a deal to integrate its forces into the national army.

The deal marked perhaps the most significant step towards national reunification so far, promising to restore to government control a swathe of northeastern Syria and its oil fields that has been largely lost to Damascus since the 2014 invasion by the Islamic State.

The integration of the SDF into the national military also appears to have been accepted by the US, which had been supporting the SDF military as an independent force in the northeast of the country, but has now announced the planned staggered withdrawal of its stationed troops.

Al-Sharaa has been making his rounds of the region in a diplomatic blitz aimed at shoring up regional support for his new government

Broader priorities

Alongside reconsolidating and restructuring the country’s military and security apparatus, Al-Sharaa’s main priorities are foreign affairs and economic policy. These two areas go hand in hand, given that removing international sanctions is key to reviving Syria’s economy.

In late March, Al-Sharaa entrenched his authority by enacting a new constitutional declaration, announcing a new transitional government and granting himself sweeping executive powers, including the right to appoint a third of the legislature and select judges for the constitutional court.

The cabinet was also broadened and reshuffled to address concerns over the lack of representation from minority communities. Individuals from the Alawite, Druze and Christian communities, as well as one woman, were appointed to ministerial positions.

The move further witnessed the replacement of the formerly appointed justice minister Shadi Al-Waisi, whose elevation embarrassed the government after 2015 videos surfaced of him presiding over street executions by morality police as part of the then Nusra Front. His removal was another reassuring step for observers that the government is attuned and reactive to constructive criticism.

With the right signals sent, Al-Sharaa has been making his rounds of the region in a diplomatic blitz aimed at shoring up regional support for his new government. He is likely also aiming to put the right words in the right ears, in the hope that they filter through the Gulf’s power lobbying system to the US.

Already on 30 January, just a day after Al-Sharaa became president, Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani flew to greet the man who displaced Al-Assad – a goal also long pursued by Doha. On 2 February, Al-Sharaa then took his first trip abroad to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Some other regional governments have been more reticent to launch into renewed relations, but have increasingly come on board.

This includes Iraq, which, hesitant over Al-Sharaa’s past militant activity against Baghdad, only arranged a meeting between the Syrian president and Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani on 17 April in Doha – ultimately driven by shared security imperatives. Al-Sudani also invited Al-Sharaa to attend the upcoming Arab summit in Baghdad in May.

On 14 April, the equally green Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam also met with Al-Sharaa in Damascus – no doubt keen to address the recent border clashes between the two countries. A day earlier, Al-Sharaa was in Abu Dhabi to meet Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, rounding out his visits to the key power brokers and budget holders in the Gulf.

Between all of these meetings, Al-Sharaa appears to have ingratiated himself with the region’s other leaders with remarkable rapidity and ease. A year after the Arab League reaccepted him in May 2023, Al-Assad had made little comparable progress.

For world leaders weary from years of dithering by Al-Assad’s government, which was unable or unwilling to even acquiesce to the Gulf’s most basic request – to stem the flow of the drug captagon from within Syria’s borders – Al-Sharaa is at least a partner who can do that and achieve far more besides. 

For years, it has been the case that a reunified Syria and a rebuilt Syrian economy would lift the entire Levant region and any Gulf investors with it. The appetite in the region to see it succeed has been there. All that has been missing is a suitable partner in Damascus to move forward with.

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John Bambridge

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    In the wake of the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq has increased the volumes being exported via the ITP and has boosted its crude exports by truck through Syria.

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    In October, Youssef Qablawi, the chief executive of the state-owned Syrian Petroleum Company, said that about 1,000 trucks were transporting fuel oil to Syria each day, with each truck carrying about 220 barrels.

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    Earlier this month, MEED reported that the governments of Iraq and Syria, state-owned oil companies and a consortium led by Qatar’s UrbaCon Contracting & Trading (UCC) were discussing the terms of a deal for four interconnected pipeline packages that are expected to have a total value of about $5bn.

    Stakeholders expect a contract to be signed before the end of the year that will make the UCC-led coalition the selected developer responsible for tendering engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts for the project.

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    Iraq and Saudi Arabia are also considering reviving an old pipeline route between the Zubair oil field in Basra and the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

    Operations of this 1,568-kilometre (km) pipeline were halted in August 1990 following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the onset of the Gulf War.

    At the end of October, Saudi Arabia granted preliminary approval to revive the joint oil export pipeline project, according to a report published by Saudi Arabia’s Shafaq News, which cited anonymous sources.

    If the pipeline is reinstated, it could allow Iraq to export oil via the Red Sea, reducing its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.

    The pipeline was originally built at a cost of more than $2.6bn and featured a large network of storage tanks and offshore loading terminals.

    Syrian strategy

    In addition to its involvement in Iraq’s strategic export pipeline project, Qatar’s UCC is developing a pipeline project in Syria that will increase the country’s ability to deal with future supply disruptions.

    On 30 September, UCC announced that it had , which will extend 186km between Homs and Aleppo.

    The 36-inch pipeline will have a transmission capacity of up to 11 million cubic metres a day of gas and will connect gas networks in Jordan to those in Turkiye via Syria.

    In its announcement, UCC said that the project is scheduled for completion within 22 months and will contribute to strengthening Syria’s gas infrastructure; enhancing the capacity of its gas transmission network; and supporting regional connectivity with Jordan, Turkiye and Lebanon.

    Hisham Al-Saleh, Syrian Petroleum Company’s deputy chief executive for the gas sector, has said that the project includes the installation of three compressors in Furqlus, which will allow gas to be transported in both directions between Turkiye and Jordan.

    Speaking to the state-owned Syrian Arab News Agency, he said that the project will add an estimated 8 million cubic metres of storage capacity to the Syrian gas network, providing greater flexibility in managing gas production and use.

    Egyptian ambitions

    Egypt is also ramping up pipeline project activity in order to increase the number of oil and gas links that it has with neighbouring countries.

    The North African nation has long had ambitions to try and become a major regional energy hub.

    These plans have been given a boost by the ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, which has reduced exports from nations like Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

    Concerns about the reliability of exports from Iraq and the GCC have led to increased investment in oil and gas infrastructure in countries that are not reliant on these waterways to transport hydrocarbons.

    In recent months, significant progress has been made on an integrated project that was launched to export offshore gas reserves in Cyprus via Egyptian energy infrastructure.

    In October, Italian oil and gas company Eni signed the main EPC and drilling contracts for the project, which will develop the Cronos field.

    The project includes contracts with several companies that will develop infrastructure in both Egypt and Cyprus.

    The awards include a $170m contract that has been won by Egypt’s Petrojet for a new onshore gas pipeline in Egypt that will help to transport gas to Egypt’s Damietta liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility.

    Separately, US-based Baker Hughes signed a contract for the design, procurement and construction of subsea production systems, including associated equipment and control systems.

    In September, it was announced that US-headquartered McDermott will carry out offshore work for the project, including the transportation, installation and connection of subsea pipelines and equipment.

    The Cronos development project will significantly increase the volume of gas being imported into Egypt, where it can be exported as LNG as well as helping to meet domestic demand.

    On top of the major pipeline project allowing the importation of gas from Cyprus, Cairo is also looking at other regional pipeline projects, including gas links to Libya.

    In a statement released earlier this month, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said that a Libyan team will ​visit ⁠Cairo soon to continue technical talks about the gas pipelines, as well as other energy projects, with Egypt’s petroleum and electricity ministers.

    Pipeline problems

    While the planned oil pipeline projects in Iraq are seen as a possible solution to the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, they are also likely to face problems relating to the importation of necessary equipment that would normally be shipped through the waterway.

    The Common Seawater Supply Project, designed to bring water from the sea to inject into oil fields, is behind schedule, largely because of problems importing the pipeline segments through the strait.

    This issue could plague other planned pipeline projects in Iraq if the disruption to shipping continues, forcing contractors to use other, more costly, import routes.

    Challenging conditions

    Even when Iraq’s major export pipeline projects are completed, they may fail to resolve the country’s oil export problems to the extent many are expecting.

    While the export pipelines will go some way towards diversifying away from reliance on exports through waterways where oil and gas tankers are vulnerable to militant attacks, many industry insiders say Iraq could just be replacing one vulnerable export route with another.

    Oil pipelines in the Middle East and North Africa region have a long history of suffering attacks and often stretch long distances through remote regions where they are difficult to defend.

    Ultimately, it is likely that finding a diplomatic solution to the regional conflict will be the only way that Iraq can reliably increase its oil exports in the long term.

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21305172/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp