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Syria comes in from the cold

23 June 2023

MEED's July 2023 report on Syria includes:

> GOVERNMENT: Al-Assad edges closer to the mainstream
> RECONSTRUCTION: Damascus counts the cost of reconstruction

 

Commentary
John Bambridge
Analysis editor

The recent readmittance of Syria into the Arab League, and the bringing of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad back into the fold in Jeddah in May, closes a regional diplomatic rift that opened more than a decade ago. It is also realpolitik at its finest. 

The pressure from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others for this reacceptance of an erstwhile rival came in sharp contrast to the situation at the start of the Syrian War in 2011, when many of the Gulf states were active funders of its opposition. But with Al-Assad long back in control of the country, there is little gain to be had, and much to be lost, from a perpetually crippled Syrian economy. 

The rehabilitation of Al-Assad is not even the most startling geopolitical U-turn in the region over the past 12 months; that would be the detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran – of which Syria’s homecoming may simply be a knock-on effect. 

As Syria teeters on the cusp of reconstruction, another cold calculus for Arab League members with deep pockets may be the opportunity that the rebuilding of the country’s economy presents. In the absence of reconstruction, only illicit sectors are likely to thrive, such as Syria’s drugs trade, which has become a regional problem that only a licit economy can address.

Western governments nevertheless remain highly resistant to engagement with Damascus. The US Congress intends to go further by considering an Assad Regime Anti-Normalisation Bill that would apply secondary sanctions to stem the flow of money from Arab states into Syria. Yet the fever of realpolitik with respect to Syria could ultimately spread. 

The Syrian refugee crisis affected all of Europe, and its ramifications continue to be felt. It is in the interests of many more governments around the world than just Arab ones to restabilise the Levant and reverse the flow of displaced persons. 

For now, a UN Security Council resolution that calls for a transitional government and new constitution obstructs international reacceptance of Al-Assad. Yet, as with the warming of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, stranger things have happened.

MEED's July 2023 report on the Levant region includes:

JORDAN: 
> COMMENT: Economic reform is Jordan’s priority
> ECONOMY: Jordan economy holds a steady course
> OIL & GAS: Jordan's oil and gas sector battles sluggish phase
> POWER & WATER: Jordan sustains utility infrastructure progress
> CONSTRUCTION: Hospital boost for Jordan construction

LEBANON: 
> COMMENT: Power politics return to the fore in Lebanon
> GOVERNMENT: Political deadlock in Lebanon blocks reforms
> ECONOMY: No end in sight for Lebanon’s economic woes

SYRIA: 
> COMMENT: Syria comes in from the cold
> GOVERNMENT: Al-Assad edges closer to the mainstream
> RECONSTRUCTION: Damascus counts the cost of reconstruction

 

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John Bambridge

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