Sudani makes fitful progress as Iraq’s premier
10 May 2023
Mohammed al-Sudani has served almost 200 days as Iraq’s prime minister since being sworn into office in late October.
In that time, he has launched a high-profile anti-corruption drive, sought to repair relations between Baghdad and the Kurdistan region, find an amiable balance in relations with Iran on the one hand and the Arab Gulf states and Western powers on the other, as well as giving greater stability to the state’s finances.
These are challenging issues and it remains too soon to judge if he can succeed, but progress on many fronts has often appeared fitful at best.
Soon after coming into office, Sudani threw his weight behind a high-profile anti-corruption drive, prompted by the multibillion-dollar ‘Heist of the Century’, which emerged just before his government took charge. The scandal involved the theft of an estimated ID3.7tn ($2.5bn) from the General Commission for Taxes.
However, after some early positive signs, observers say that the anti-graft drive appears to be losing momentum. One of the main suspects, Haitham al-Jubouri, was released on bail in January. The assets of another suspect, Nour Zuhair Jassim, were unfrozen by a court in April.
Corruption has been endemic in Iraq for years and continues to hobble the economy. There has also been limited progress in other areas of economic activity.
As the Washington-based IMF pointed out in its most recent Article IV report on Iraq, issued in early February, the economy has been growing, but that is in large part due to high oil prices. Indeed, it said Iraq’s dependence on oil revenues has increased rather than decreased.
Gas deal success
The importance of the energy sector is unlikely to diminish anytime soon, given current project activity. Sudani was involved in broking a deal with French oil major TotalEnergies in early April over the $10bn Gas Growth Integrated Project (GGIP), following four meetings with its chief executive Patrick Pouyanne.
The mammoth scheme had been announced in September 2021, but had stalled amid a dispute between Baghdad and Total over what size holdings each side would have. A resolution was helped by the arrival of QatarEnergy, which has taken a 25 per cent stake, leaving Iraq with 30 per cent (held via state-owned Basra Oil Company) and Total with 45 per cent.
That should enable more productive use of the country’s gas resources in the future and will also see the development of a 1GW solar power plant.
On the other hand, oil exports through Turkey have stopped since the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) arbitration court in Paris ruled in favour of Baghdad in late March over Kurdish oil flows to Turkey via a cross-border pipeline.
Sudani has been building good publicity and a positive image for himself domestically and abroad, but it’s a rather thin veneer, behind which the machinery of entrenched interests is carrying on as usual
Omar al-Nidawi, Enabling Peace in Iraq Centre
Mixed reception
The former Iraqi ambassador to the US, Rend al-Rahim, has described Sudani as an “energetic and shrewd politician” – both necessary qualities to rise to the top in Baghdad and even more important to survive. Others have been less impressed by Sudani’s performance, though.
“He has been building good publicity and a positive image for himself domestically and abroad, but it’s a rather thin veneer, behind which the machinery of entrenched interests is carrying on as usual,” says Omar al-Nidawi, director of programmes at the Washington-based Enabling Peace in Iraq Centre (Epic).
Sudani came to power due to the support of former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki and the Coordination Framework, the grouping of Shia-majority parties with close links to Iran. They and their related militias remain influential to this day – part of a political system in which groups continue to use the state’s resources to entrench their own influence.
Budget concerns
Sudani’s budget plans have prompted concern among some about how that system of patronage might grow even larger. A three-year budget covering the period 2023-25 was finalised by the cabinet in mid-March and then sent to parliament in what was his administration’s first major piece of legislative action.
It included record spending of some ID198tn ($152bn) a year, including current spending of ID150tn and capital expenditure of ID48tn, as well as record annual deficits of some ID63tn, based on an average oil price of $70 a barrel and output of 3.5 million barrels a day (b/d). The plans include a sharp rise in the public sector wage bill, taking that item to a total of ID88tn.
That approach was the opposite of what the IMF had urged Sudani to do. In February, it said the government should save “the bulk of the oil windfall” and added that the 2023 budget “should avoid a procyclical spending boost and aim to increase savings with a gradual tightening of the fiscal stance”.
According to Nidawi, the budget plans point to a government that is more focused on using the state’s resources to bolster its support and minimise criticism rather than rebuild the economy. He described the budget as “exceptionally disappointing”, adding that the spending measures “threaten to waste the financial surplus from high oil prices by expanding the already bloated public payroll”.
The budget also included an attempt to find a new modus vivendi with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), allowing for a 12.7 per cent budget share for Kurdistan and joint management of some 400,000 b/d of oil from the region. Sudani said on 13 March that Baghdad and Erbil had reached “a comprehensive agreement”. However, it remains to be seen if the system they have agreed will work effectively in practice.
In addition, Sudani’s budget has yet to be passed by parliament, and MPs could still force him to change his approach – a final vote may not happen until late May. What is not expected to change, for a time at least, is the parliament itself. When Sudani took office, it was amid speculation that an early election could be called, following the resignation of Moqtada al-Sadr’s bloc of MPs.
Since then, the idea of an early poll has faded and Sadr has remained in the background. Should he decide to change tack once again, Sudani could quickly face a far more challenging political situation, given Sadr’s past ability to quickly fill the streets with his supporters. At that point, Sudani’s political strengths and weaknesses will become far more apparent.
Iraq power projects make headway
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Qiddiya seeks interest for water infrastructure packages
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Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) has issued an expression of interest for two water infrastructure packages at Qiddiya City, southwest of Riyadh.
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Riyadh plans multibillion northern roads network overhaul
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Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) is preparing to implement a 189-kilometre (km) programme of road upgrades and extensions in the north of the capital as part of a comprehensive restructuring of the capital’s northern transport infrastructure.
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Wave one
Wave one is the most immediate phase, covering seven links totalling 49km around the airport terminals, Expo 2030 and Roshn’s developments.
Fast-tracked for design completion in August 2026, Wave 1 comprises critical primary conduits split across two packages:
Package 1: Covers 11km, comprising an initial 8km stretch of Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah Road and the first extension phase of King Salman Road.
RCRC has already begun implementing the Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah Road scheme, awarding multimillion-dollar contracts for the project this year.
The centrepiece of this wave is the extension of King Salman Road, which will be realigned south along the boundary between KSIA and Roshn.
The new road will have six main lanes and three service-road lanes in each direction, with three full interchanges where Airport Road, a Roshn Sedra link and Sheikh Jaber Road cross it on bridges.
The interchanges will also give separate access to the airport support facilities and terminals, and are each forecast to handle 300,000-400,000 vehicles a day by 2040.
Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah Road will be upgraded along an 8km section and extended by a further 5km. Three grade-separated T-intersections will provide access to Roshn Sedra.
The existing 6km section of King Salman Road will be widened to six main lanes in each direction, with tunnels beneath it at the Prince Saud Bin Jalawi interchange and between Expo 2030 and Roshn Plot 1.
Package 2: Covers 28km of core alignment updates across King Salman Road, the Expo South link, Airport Road, Prince Badr Bin Abdulmohsen Road and Anas Bin Malik Road.
A new 6km road south of the Expo site will extend Prince Saud Bin Jalawi Road through three grade-separated junctions, relieving King Salman Road of Expo and Roshn traffic.
The 8km Airport Road upgrade will add five main lanes and four service-road lanes in each direction, an underpass interchange at Expo Road, a bridge linking Expo with Roshn Sedra and new elevated ramps serving Princess Nourah Bint Abdulrahman University.
Prince Badr Bin Abdulmohsen Bin Abdulaziz Road will be widened from three to four lanes in each direction for 5km, with an underpass to King Salman Stadium.
A tunnel-and-bridge junction will carry it beneath the upgraded 3km Anas Bin Malik Road.
Wave one also includes a main bridge over Riyadh Metro Line 4.
Wave two
Wave two comprises two further packages totalling 72km that extend the network west and south of the airport.
Package 3: Covers 38km and includes the 33km upgrade of Al-Janadriyah Road, the longest single link in the programme, together with the 5km western section of Mohammed Bin Faraj Road. Its design submission is due in November 2026.
Package 4: Covers 34km and comprises the extension of King Salman Road to Al-Janadriyah Road, the 10km upgrade of the Airport Extension Road serving the airport support functions and the 16km upgrade of Prince Saud Bin Abdullah Bin Jalawi Road.
Design is scheduled for submission in March 2027.
Wave three
Wave three is a single 52km package covering the outer northern and eastern corridors. It comprises the 11km upgrade of Al-Thumamah Road, the 17km upgrade of Khuzam Road and the 19km extension of Jabal Azid Road, with design due for submission in August 2027.
Alongside the RCRC-led schemes, KSIA will deliver four links totalling 27km on its own campus. These are the 10km upgrade of the Airport Extension Road adjacent to the terminals, a 6km upgrade of Mohammed Bin Faraj Road, a 5km road to the cargo and aviation services area and a 6km road to the Iconic Terminal.
All three waves are scheduled to reach tender by 2028.
Programme rationale
Designed by Lebanon-headquartered engineering firm Dar Al-Handasah, Taiwan’s Wiecon Consulting Engineers and Germany’s Bodeker, the programme responds to the concentration of Riyadh’s flagship schemes on the city’s northern edge.
Riyadh is planning major developments in the north, with most due for completion by 2030. Daily trips in the area are forecast to rise from about 775,000 today to 1.7 million by 2030 and 3.7 million by 2050.
Roshn’s projects account for 37% of that demand, with Roshn Sedra alone generating more than 520,000 daily trips by 2030.
The sequencing is driven by Riyadh’s event timetable. Wave one targets the links that unlock KSIA’s new terminals, the Expo 2030 site and King Salman Stadium, a venue for the 2034 Fifa World Cup.
The later waves then build capacity for the housing, logistics and mixed-use districts expected to drive traffic growth after 2030, sustaining a pipeline of road contracts in the capital well into the next decade.
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