meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Saudi economy shows signs of weakness

3 August 2023

 

The Saudi economy is showing signs of weakness as negative growth in the oil economy overshadows the positive growth registered by the non-oil economy.

On 31 July, London-based Capital Economics said the Saudi economy was now technically in recession after the kingdom's General Authority for Statistics (Gastat) confirmed that the economy contracted during the second quarter of this year with the publication of its GDP Flash Estimates.

The estimates show that the Saudi economy contracted by 0.1 per cent during the second quarter of this year compared to the first quarter. Real GDP declined by 1.4 per cent in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2022.

The statistics look more encouraging on an annual basis. Real GDP increased by 1.1 per cent during the second quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. The non-oil economy grew by 5.5 per cent in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, while the oil economy decreased by 4.2 per cent compared to the previous year. During the first quarter of this year, growth was 3.8 per cent compared to the first quarter of 2022. 

Projects performance

The projects market has also performed strongly during the first half of the year. According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, $42bn of deals were signed, the most on record. The previous high was the $28bn awarded during the first half of 2014.

Capital Economics said the technical recession was mainly due to reductions in oil production, despite the non-oil economy maintaining strong growth. The oil economy contracted by 1.4 per cent during the second quarter on a quarter-on-quarter basis, while the non-oil economy increased by 2 per cent.

Looking to the future, Saudi Arabia has adopted even more stringent cuts to its oil production in the third quarter, with an additional voluntary reduction of one million barrels a day in July and August.

Capital Economics expects this to counter further strength in the non-oil sector, leading to an anticipated contraction in GDP of about 3 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter. It also says there is a growing possibility that the upcoming Opec+’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting will result in the kingdom announcing the extension of this voluntary cut until at least the end of September.

If this occurs, the economy is expected to shrink by about 0.5 per cent over 2023. Excluding the global financial crisis and pandemic, this would mark the poorest GDP performance in over two decades.

IMF downgrade

The economic data for the second quarter was released shortly after the Washington-based IMF downgraded its real GDP growth projection for Saudi Arabia in 2023 to 1.9 per cent in its latest World Economic Outlook update.

The fund had in April anticipated a growth rate of 3.1 per cent for the year, adjusting this forecast to 2.1 per cent in June due to global macroeconomic concerns and uncertainties in oil demand.

The downward revision in Saudi Arabia’s growth forecast has broader implications for the wider Middle East region, which the IMF now expects to grow by 2.6 per cent in 2023, down from 3.1 per cent in its April forecast.

The slump in Saudi Arabia’s economic output contrasts strongly with its performance in 2022, when its growth was gauged at 8.7 per cent by the IMF, driven by a boost in oil revenue amid high energy prices. The kingdom also achieved its first budget surplus in almost a decade.

The signs of weakness in the Saudi economy coincide with reports of losses for the Public Investment Fund (PIF), which is driving much of the development of the non-oil economy in the kingdom. According to a report by Bloomberg, it made an investment activity loss of about $11bn in 2022, in sharp contrast to the $19bn profit reported the previous year. Despite the loss on investment activity made last year, PIF’s total assets grew from $676bn to about $778bn in 2022.

The PIF and its subsidiary companies are leading the development of a wide range of projects in the kingdom, including five official gigaproject developers. They are Neom, Red Sea Global, Roshn, Qiddiya and Diriyah.

Debt markets

The investment losses and the ramp-up of spending on domestic projects mean the PIF is likely to raise more debt. According to another report by Bloomberg, the fund has hired banks for a debut Islamic dollar bond sale to help finance its global spending plans. The fund could raise about $3bn, although the final size of the sukuk could be bigger depending on investor demand. It has mandated HSBC, Standard Chartered, Emirates NBD Bank and Al-Rajhi Capital for the offering.

As of the end of 2022, the fund’s borrowings amounted to $85bn. Earlier this year, it secured $5.5bn with a three-tranche green bond sale.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11050401/main.gif
Colin Foreman

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Algeria opens bidding for water treatment plant

    15 April 2026

     

    State-owned Cosider Pipelines, part of Algeria’s public infrastructure group Cosider, has issued a tender for the construction of a demineralisation plant in In Salah in Algeria.

    The contract covers the design, supply, installation, testing and commissioning of a plant with a treatment capacity of 62,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d).

    The tender is open to local and international companies specialising in the design and construction of demineralisation and reverse osmosis desalination plants.

    The bid submission deadline is 26 April.

    The project will be located at In Salah, a key industrial area in southern Algeria, where treated water supply is important for both municipal and industrial use.

    Cosider said that individual bidders must demonstrate that they have completed at least one reverse osmosis demineralisation or desalination plant with a capacity of 20,000 cubic metres a day or more.

    They must also show an average annual turnover of at least AD1bn ($7.7m) for their five best years over the past decade.

    For consortium bids, all partners must share full responsibility for the contract, while the lead company must meet the technical and financial requirements.

    Recent projects

    In 2023, MEED reported that Riyadh-based water utility developer Wetico had won two contracts to develop water desalination plants in Algeria.

    Societe Algerienne de Realisation de Projects Industriels (Sarpi) awarded the contract for the El-Tarf desalination plant, while Entreprise Nationale de Canalisations (Enac) is the client for the Bejaja facility.

    Both plants were commissioned in 2025, each with a production capacity of 300,000 cm/d.

    Separately, Wetico was the main contractor on a third plant commissioned last year. The Cap Dijinet 2 seawater desalination plant in Boumerdes province covers 18 hectares and also has a capacity of 300,000 cm/d.

    Like many countries, Algeria is facing pressure on resources due to longer and more frequent droughts. Seawater desalination is seen as a key driver of the government’s strategy to guarantee drinking water supply.

    According to previous reports, the government is planning to build up to six additional plants by 2030.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16404325/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • WEBINAR: UAE Projects Market 2026

    15 April 2026

    Webinar: UAE Projects Market 2026
    Tuesday, 28 April 2026 | 11:00 GST  |  Register now

    Agenda:

    • Overview of the UAE projects market landscape
    • 2025 projects market performance
    • Value of work awarded 2026 YTD
    • Impact of the Iran conflict on the projects market and real estate, assessing supply chain disruptions, material cost inflation and war risk premiums
    • Key drivers, challenges and opportunities
    • Size of future pipeline by sector and status
    • Ranking of the top contractors and clients
    • Summary of key current and future projects
    • Short and long-term market outlook
    • Audience Q&A

    Hosted by: Colin Foreman, editor of MEED 

    Colin Foreman is editor and a specialist construction journalist for news and analysis on MEED.com and the MEED Business Review magazine. He has been reporting on the region since 2003, specialising in the construction sector and its impact on the broader economy. He has reported exclusively on a wide range of projects across the region including Dubai Metro, the Burj Khalifa, Jeddah Airport, Doha Metro, Hamad International airport and Yas Island. Before joining MEED, Colin reported on the construction sector in Hong Kong.

    Click here to register

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16401868/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Saudi Landbridge finds its moment in Gulf turmoil

    15 April 2026

    Commentary
    Yasir Iqbal
    Construction writer

    The strategic case for the Saudi Landbridge has never been more urgent. SAR’s appointment of Spain’s Typsa as lead design consultant, reported by MEED this week, is more than a procurement milestone. After two decades of delays, it reflects how the long-deferred project has become a strategic necessity.

    The conflict reshaping the Middle East has made that necessity more immediate. Red Sea transits are costly and unpredictable. The Strait of Hormuz carries risk no insurer can fully price. Saudi Arabia’s most valuable exports, including crude oil, refined products, petrochemicals and industrial goods, move almost entirely by sea through routes that are no longer reliably secure.

    The kingdom sits between two coastlines with no rail link connecting them. That gap is now an economic exposure.

    The $27bn project addresses it directly. More than 1,500 kilometres of track, anchored by a 900km railway between Riyadh and Jeddah, will provide direct freight access from King Abdullah Port on the Red Sea, with upgrades to the Riyadh-Dammam line and a new connection to Yanbu.

    Together, they create what Saudi Arabia has never had: a continuous land corridor linking Gulf industrial ports to Red Sea export terminals, entirely within its own borders.

    The commercial implications are substantial. Aramco’s downstream output, Sabic’s chemicals, and the manufacturing clusters of Jubail and Yanbu gain flexible access to both coasts.

    Exporters targeting Europe and the Americas load at Jeddah; those serving Asia pivot east to Dammam by rail, on demand, without Hormuz risk or Red Sea freight surcharges.

    No neighbouring economy has that optionality. The network also underpins a broader economic ambition. Connecting Jeddah, Riyadh, Dammam, Jubail, Yanbu, King Abdullah port and King Khalid airport by rail positions the kingdom as a genuine logistics corridor between East and West. 

    With design now under way and construction tenders expected imminently, the Landbridge is closer to reality than at any point in its troubled history. Regional disruption did not create this project. But it has made the argument for it unanswerable.

    MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
    > BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
    > UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
    > POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia
    > WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
    > TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure push

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16401567/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Indian firm selected for Saudi sewage treatment project

    15 April 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s National Water Company is understood to have recently selected Indian contractor VA Tech Wabag as its preferred bidder for a contract to expand a sewage treatment plant (STP) in Al-Majmaah in Riyadh Province.

    The engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) package for the Al-Majmaah STP has an estimated value of $65m.

    The scope includes the construction of sewage treatment plant units, a pumping station and an effluent surplus line. It also covers the installation of a Scada system, supervisory control systems and associated facilities.

    As MEED understands, six bids were submitted last year, including from local firms Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies, Al-Rafia Contracting, Civil Works Company, Saudi Sdn Water & Energy and Washnah Trading & Contracting.

    The project forms part of Saudi Arabia’s broader push to expand treatment and reuse infrastructure under Vision 2030, particularly across the Riyadh region.

    MEED recently revealed that NWC had awarded an EPC contract for the latest phase of its long-term operations and maintenance sewage treatment programme.

    The contract to build and upgrade sewage treatment plants with a combined capacity of about 440,000 cubic metres a day was awarded to a consortium led by China’s Jiangsu United Water Technology.

    Elsewhere, a joint venture of Kuwait-based Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding and Wabag is awaiting the formal contract award for phase two of Kuwait’s Doha seawater desalination plant project.

    The firms submitted the lowest bid of $373.2m for the project last year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16401155/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • SAR extends phosphate rail track deadline

    15 April 2026

     

    Saudi Arabian Railways (SAR) has extended the bid submission deadline to 26 April for a multibillion-riyal tender to double the tracks on the existing phosphate transport railway network connecting the Waad Al-Shamal mines to Ras Al-Khair in the kingdom’s Eastern Province.

    The new tender – covering the second section of the track-doubling works and spanning more than 150 kilometres (km) – was issued on 9 February. The previous bid submission deadline was 15 April.

    The new tender follows SAR receiving bids from contractors on 1 February for the project’s first phase, which spans about 100km from the AZ1/Nariyah Yard to Ras Al-Khair.

    The scope includes track doubling, alignment modifications, new utility bridges, culvert widening and hydrological structures, as well as the conversion of the AZ1 siding into a mainline track. It also includes support for signalling and telecommunications systems.

    The tender notice was issued in late November, with a bid submission deadline of 20 January 2026.

    Switzerland-based engineering firm ARX is the project consultant.

    MEED understands that these two packages are the first of four that SAR is expected to tender for the phosphate railway line. Other packages expected to be tendered shortly include the depot and systems packages.

    In 2023, MEED reported that SAR was planning two projects to increase its freight capacity, including an estimated SR4.2bn ($1.1bn) project to install a second track along the North Train Freight Line and construct three new freight yards.

    Formerly known as the North-South Railway, the North Train is a 1,550km-long freight line running from the phosphate and bauxite mines in the far north of the kingdom to the Al-Baithah junction. There, it diverges into a line southward to Riyadh and a second line running east to downstream fertiliser production and alumina refining facilities at Ras Al-Khair on the Gulf coast.

    Adding a second track and the freight yards will significantly increase the network’s cargo-carrying capacity and facilitate increased industrial production. Project implementation is expected to take four years.

    State-owned SAR is also considering increasing the localisation of railway materials and equipment, including the construction of a cement sleeper manufacturing facility.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16400986/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal