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Saudi economy shows signs of weakness

3 August 2023

 

The Saudi economy is showing signs of weakness as negative growth in the oil economy overshadows the positive growth registered by the non-oil economy.

On 31 July, London-based Capital Economics said the Saudi economy was now technically in recession after the kingdom's General Authority for Statistics (Gastat) confirmed that the economy contracted during the second quarter of this year with the publication of its GDP Flash Estimates.

The estimates show that the Saudi economy contracted by 0.1 per cent during the second quarter of this year compared to the first quarter. Real GDP declined by 1.4 per cent in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2022.

The statistics look more encouraging on an annual basis. Real GDP increased by 1.1 per cent during the second quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. The non-oil economy grew by 5.5 per cent in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, while the oil economy decreased by 4.2 per cent compared to the previous year. During the first quarter of this year, growth was 3.8 per cent compared to the first quarter of 2022. 

Projects performance

The projects market has also performed strongly during the first half of the year. According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, $42bn of deals were signed, the most on record. The previous high was the $28bn awarded during the first half of 2014.

Capital Economics said the technical recession was mainly due to reductions in oil production, despite the non-oil economy maintaining strong growth. The oil economy contracted by 1.4 per cent during the second quarter on a quarter-on-quarter basis, while the non-oil economy increased by 2 per cent.

Looking to the future, Saudi Arabia has adopted even more stringent cuts to its oil production in the third quarter, with an additional voluntary reduction of one million barrels a day in July and August.

Capital Economics expects this to counter further strength in the non-oil sector, leading to an anticipated contraction in GDP of about 3 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter. It also says there is a growing possibility that the upcoming Opec+’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting will result in the kingdom announcing the extension of this voluntary cut until at least the end of September.

If this occurs, the economy is expected to shrink by about 0.5 per cent over 2023. Excluding the global financial crisis and pandemic, this would mark the poorest GDP performance in over two decades.

IMF downgrade

The economic data for the second quarter was released shortly after the Washington-based IMF downgraded its real GDP growth projection for Saudi Arabia in 2023 to 1.9 per cent in its latest World Economic Outlook update.

The fund had in April anticipated a growth rate of 3.1 per cent for the year, adjusting this forecast to 2.1 per cent in June due to global macroeconomic concerns and uncertainties in oil demand.

The downward revision in Saudi Arabia’s growth forecast has broader implications for the wider Middle East region, which the IMF now expects to grow by 2.6 per cent in 2023, down from 3.1 per cent in its April forecast.

The slump in Saudi Arabia’s economic output contrasts strongly with its performance in 2022, when its growth was gauged at 8.7 per cent by the IMF, driven by a boost in oil revenue amid high energy prices. The kingdom also achieved its first budget surplus in almost a decade.

The signs of weakness in the Saudi economy coincide with reports of losses for the Public Investment Fund (PIF), which is driving much of the development of the non-oil economy in the kingdom. According to a report by Bloomberg, it made an investment activity loss of about $11bn in 2022, in sharp contrast to the $19bn profit reported the previous year. Despite the loss on investment activity made last year, PIF’s total assets grew from $676bn to about $778bn in 2022.

The PIF and its subsidiary companies are leading the development of a wide range of projects in the kingdom, including five official gigaproject developers. They are Neom, Red Sea Global, Roshn, Qiddiya and Diriyah.

Debt markets

The investment losses and the ramp-up of spending on domestic projects mean the PIF is likely to raise more debt. According to another report by Bloomberg, the fund has hired banks for a debut Islamic dollar bond sale to help finance its global spending plans. The fund could raise about $3bn, although the final size of the sukuk could be bigger depending on investor demand. It has mandated HSBC, Standard Chartered, Emirates NBD Bank and Al-Rajhi Capital for the offering.

As of the end of 2022, the fund’s borrowings amounted to $85bn. Earlier this year, it secured $5.5bn with a three-tranche green bond sale.

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Colin Foreman

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    The wider economic picture is, however, far more mixed. Figures issued by the General Authority for Statistics in mid-August revealed a 4.8% contraction in GDP in the second quarter of the year, compared with the same period a year earlier. The decline was driven by a 25% contraction in the oil sector.

    Hydrocarbons remain the central pillar of the Saudi economy, and the Iran war has placed it under enormous pressure, with exports through the Strait of Hormuz difficult – if not impossible – for much of the past six months. The alternative route via the Red Sea has its own difficulties, thanks to Houthi attacks on shipping around the Bab El-Mandeb strait. As a result, Saudi oil cargoes heading to Asia are being diverted via the Suez Canal and around Africa – a route that adds weeks to the journey.

    Lower oil revenues weaken the state’s fiscal position and are leading to larger budget deficits, which need to be funded through other means. On 1 September, the National Debt Management Centre (NDMC) announced it had sold $3.25bn-worth of sharia-compliant bonds (sukuk) to international investors. It said it had received orders for $16.5bn, indicating there remains strong appetite among overseas buyers.

    In May, the NDMC said it had secured around 90% of the government’s funding needs for the year, even before the euphemistically named “geopolitical events” had broken out. It added at the time that, should additional financing be needed, it would turn to “private channels and local markets” as the main funding sources, while also monitoring international markets to see if “favourable opportunities arise”.

    One positive element amid the gloom is that the non-oil private sector has proved relatively resilient and has continued to grow for most of the time since the war began in late February. The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey compiled by Riyad Bank shows the non-oil sector expanded each month from April to August. Reviewing the latest PMI data, Naif Al-Ghaith, chief economist at Riyad Bank, said it expected the Saudi non-oil economy to “maintain solid growth momentum through the second half of the year”.

    However, there are warning signs. Job creation is relatively weak, and business confidence is fragile: in the August PMI survey, only one in five respondents said they expected increased activity over the next 12 months.

    Other data points offer further reasons for caution. Saudi bank deposits fell slightly in July to SR3.11tn ($820bn) – the first drop since October last year – according to data from the central bank.

    Exports are also struggling due to higher transport costs. Saudi Arabia’s total exports were 10% lower in the second quarter of the year than in the first. The government is reportedly weighing a scheme to reduce insurance costs for shipping companies in an effort to bolster exports, but Oxford Economics said it expects the kingdom’s exports “to remain weak through the rest of this year”.

    Perhaps the biggest risk is uncertainty. The Iran conflict was relatively muted through much of August, but flared again in early September when Tehran and Washington exchanged fire. Saudi Arabia has not suffered as many hits from Iranian missiles as Bahrain, Kuwait or Jordan, but that could change.

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    The past nine editions of FII have been a stage for billions of dollars in investment pledges – more than $50bn-worth of agreements were announced at last year’s event – but none has taken place against such a difficult geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop. Riyadh’s policymakers will be hoping investors can look past the current crisis and provide further fillips for the economy.

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    Despite a geopolitical backdrop that has unsettled contractors and financiers alike, Saudi Arabia’s construction sector is on course for one of its strongest years on record.

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    Saudi Arabia’s Civil Aviation Holding Company (Matarat), through the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP), has qualified five groups and one standalone company to bid for a contract to develop Prince Naif Bin Abdulaziz International airport in Qassim, Saudi Arabia.

    These include:

    1. YDA Insaat / Safari Group / Lamar Holding / Egis (Turkiye/local/Bahrain/France)
    2. Ports Projects Management & Development Company / Algihaz Holding (local/local)
    3. Mada International Holding / TAV Airports Holding (local/Turkiye)
    4. Namaya International Investment Company / Oman Airports Management Company / AlBawani Capital / Tanama (local/Oman/local/UAE)
    5. Vision Invest / Asyad Holding / DAA International (local/local/Ireland)
    6. GMR Airports (India)

    The prequalification process follows 89 firms expressing interest in the contract, as MEED reported in March.

    The project scope includes the redevelopment of the passenger terminal as well as other associated facilities such as airside infrastructure, including runway, taxiways and aprons.

    The project will be developed on a design-finance-construction-operations-maintenance-transfer basis.

    The clients issued an expression of interest notice for the project on 9 February, and companies were given until 23 February to submit responses.

    Tendering is also ongoing for the new Taif International airport project in Mecca Province. 

    The new Taif International airport will be located 21 kilometres southeast of the existing Taif airport and will have a capacity of 2.5 million passengers by 2030.

    In addition to a new airport terminal, the proposed design features a runway with a full-length parallel taxiway connecting to a single commercial apron.

    The scope includes facility buildings, utility networks, car parks and access roads, as well as provisions for additional expansions to meet future subsystem requirements.

    The new airport is expected to meet the projected increase in demand by 2055 and contribute to the economic development of the city of Taif and its surrounding areas, in line with the kingdom’s National Aviation Strategy.

    It is also expected to meet the needs of Umrah pilgrims, as an alternative within the region’s multi-airport system, which includes King Abdulaziz airport in Jeddah, Prince Mohammed Bin Abdulaziz airport in Medina and Prince Abdulmohsen Bin Abdulaziz airport in Yanbu.

    Previous tenders

    The Taif, Hail and Qassim airport schemes were previously tendered and awarded as public-private partnership (PPP) projects using the build-transfer-operate (BTO) model.

    Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation (Gaca) awarded the contracts to develop four airport PPP projects to two separate consortiums in 2017.

    A team of Turkiye’s TAV Airports and the local Al-Rajhi Holding Group won the 30-year concession agreement to build, transfer and operate airport passenger terminals in Yanbu, Qassim and Hail.

    A second team, comprising Lebanon’s Consolidated Contractors Company, Germany’s Munich Airport International and local firm Asyad Group, won the BTO contract to develop Taif International airport.

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    Yasir Iqbal