meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Saudi economy shows signs of weakness

3 August 2023

 

The Saudi economy is showing signs of weakness as negative growth in the oil economy overshadows the positive growth registered by the non-oil economy.

On 31 July, London-based Capital Economics said the Saudi economy was now technically in recession after the kingdom's General Authority for Statistics (Gastat) confirmed that the economy contracted during the second quarter of this year with the publication of its GDP Flash Estimates.

The estimates show that the Saudi economy contracted by 0.1 per cent during the second quarter of this year compared to the first quarter. Real GDP declined by 1.4 per cent in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2022.

The statistics look more encouraging on an annual basis. Real GDP increased by 1.1 per cent during the second quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. The non-oil economy grew by 5.5 per cent in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, while the oil economy decreased by 4.2 per cent compared to the previous year. During the first quarter of this year, growth was 3.8 per cent compared to the first quarter of 2022. 

Projects performance

The projects market has also performed strongly during the first half of the year. According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, $42bn of deals were signed, the most on record. The previous high was the $28bn awarded during the first half of 2014.

Capital Economics said the technical recession was mainly due to reductions in oil production, despite the non-oil economy maintaining strong growth. The oil economy contracted by 1.4 per cent during the second quarter on a quarter-on-quarter basis, while the non-oil economy increased by 2 per cent.

Looking to the future, Saudi Arabia has adopted even more stringent cuts to its oil production in the third quarter, with an additional voluntary reduction of one million barrels a day in July and August.

Capital Economics expects this to counter further strength in the non-oil sector, leading to an anticipated contraction in GDP of about 3 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter. It also says there is a growing possibility that the upcoming Opec+’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting will result in the kingdom announcing the extension of this voluntary cut until at least the end of September.

If this occurs, the economy is expected to shrink by about 0.5 per cent over 2023. Excluding the global financial crisis and pandemic, this would mark the poorest GDP performance in over two decades.

IMF downgrade

The economic data for the second quarter was released shortly after the Washington-based IMF downgraded its real GDP growth projection for Saudi Arabia in 2023 to 1.9 per cent in its latest World Economic Outlook update.

The fund had in April anticipated a growth rate of 3.1 per cent for the year, adjusting this forecast to 2.1 per cent in June due to global macroeconomic concerns and uncertainties in oil demand.

The downward revision in Saudi Arabia’s growth forecast has broader implications for the wider Middle East region, which the IMF now expects to grow by 2.6 per cent in 2023, down from 3.1 per cent in its April forecast.

The slump in Saudi Arabia’s economic output contrasts strongly with its performance in 2022, when its growth was gauged at 8.7 per cent by the IMF, driven by a boost in oil revenue amid high energy prices. The kingdom also achieved its first budget surplus in almost a decade.

The signs of weakness in the Saudi economy coincide with reports of losses for the Public Investment Fund (PIF), which is driving much of the development of the non-oil economy in the kingdom. According to a report by Bloomberg, it made an investment activity loss of about $11bn in 2022, in sharp contrast to the $19bn profit reported the previous year. Despite the loss on investment activity made last year, PIF’s total assets grew from $676bn to about $778bn in 2022.

The PIF and its subsidiary companies are leading the development of a wide range of projects in the kingdom, including five official gigaproject developers. They are Neom, Red Sea Global, Roshn, Qiddiya and Diriyah.

Debt markets

The investment losses and the ramp-up of spending on domestic projects mean the PIF is likely to raise more debt. According to another report by Bloomberg, the fund has hired banks for a debut Islamic dollar bond sale to help finance its global spending plans. The fund could raise about $3bn, although the final size of the sukuk could be bigger depending on investor demand. It has mandated HSBC, Standard Chartered, Emirates NBD Bank and Al-Rajhi Capital for the offering.

As of the end of 2022, the fund’s borrowings amounted to $85bn. Earlier this year, it secured $5.5bn with a three-tranche green bond sale.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11050401/main.gif
Colin Foreman

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Abu Dhabi extends battery storage bid deadline

    14 March 2025

    Prequalified bidders were given a three-week extension to submit their proposals for a contract to develop and operate a battery energy storage system (bess) plant project in Abu Dhabi.

    The project client, Abu Dhabi-based utility offtaker Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec), expects to receive bids by 24 March, three weeks from the previous tender closing date, according to a source familiar with the project.

    Called Bess 1, the 400MW project will closely follow the model of Abu Dhabi’s independent power project (IPP) programme, in which developers enter into a long-term energy storage agreement (ESA) with Ewec as the sole procurer.

    The first plant will be in Al-Bihouth, about 45 kilometres (km) southwest of Abu Dhabi, and the second plant will be in Madinat Zayed, about 160km southwest of the city.

    Ewec issued the request for proposals to prequalified companies in July last year and initially set 30 November 2024 as the last day to submit proposals. 

    MEED previously reported that up to four consortiums comprising infrastructure investors, developers and contractors have been formed and are preparing to submit their proposals for the contract.

    Ewec prequalified 11 managing partners that can bid either individually or as part of a consortium with other prequalified bidders. These are:

    • Acwa Power (Saudi Arabia)
    • China Electrical Equipment International (China)
    • EDF (France)
    • International Power (Engie)
    • Jera (Japan)
    • Jinko Power (China)
    • Korea Electric Power Corporation (Kepco, South Korea)
    • Marubeni (Japan)
    • Sembcorp Utilities (Singapore)
    • SPIC Huanghe Hydropower Development Company (China) 
    • Sumitomo Corporation (Japan)

    Ewec prequalified 18 other companies that can bid as part of a consortium. These are:

    • Abrdn Investcorp Infrastructure Investments Manager (UK)
    • AGP Capital (US)
    • Al-Masaood (UAE)
    • Al-Fanar Company (Saudi Arabia)
    • Alghanim International (Kuwait)
    • Aljomaih Energy & Water Company (Jenwa, Saudi Arabia)
    • Amplex-Emirates (local)
    • ATGC Transport & General Trading (local)
    • Amea Power (local)
    • China Electric Power Equipment & Technology (China)
    • China Machinery Engineering Corporation (China)
    • GE Capital EFS Financing (US)
    • Itochu (Japan)
    • Korea Western Power Company (Kowepo, South Korea)
    • Pacific Green (US)
    • Samsung C&T (South Korea)
    • Swift Energy (Malaysia)
    • X-Noor Energy Equipment Trading  (UAE)

    The planned facility is expected to provide up to 800 megawatt-hours (MWh) of storage capacity.

    The ESA will be for 15 years, commencing on the project’s commercial operation date, which falls in the third quarter of 2026. 

    According to Ewec, the bess project will provide additional flexibility to the system and ancillary services such as frequency response and voltage regulation.

    Global bess market

    The overall capacity of deployed bess globally is expected to reach 127GW by 2027, up from an estimated cumulative deployment of 36.7GW at the end of 2023, according to a recent GlobalData report.

    The report named Chinese companies BYD and CATL and South Korean companies LG Energy Solutions and Samsung SDI among the top battery technology providers globally.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13484751/main.gif
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Indian and Spanish team wins Ras Mohaisen EPC package

    13 March 2025

    A team of India's Larsen & Toubro (L&T) and Madrid-headquartered Lantania has won the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for the Ras Mohaisen independent water project (IWP) in Saudi Arabia.

    State utility offtaker Saudi Water Partnership Company (SWPC) signed the water-purchase agreement contract for the project with a consortium comprising Riyadh-headquartered utility developer Acwa Power, Hajj Abdullah Ali Reza & Partners and Al-Kifah Holding Company in February. 

    According to L&T,  its Water and Effluent Treatment business division will execute the EPC contract for the desalination facility.

    The state water offtaker received two bids for the contract in April last year. The other bidder was Spain’s Acciona.

    The Ras Mohaisen IWP will be able to treat 300,000 cubic metres of seawater a day (cm/d) using reverse osmosis technology.

    It will also include storage tanks with a capacity of 600,000 cubic metres, equivalent to two operating days, intake and outfall facilities, process units and pumping stations.

    The build, own and operate project will also include electrical, automation and instrumentation systems and a solar photovoltaic plant. 

    The project is expected to reach commercial operation by the second quarter of 2028.

    The plant will be located in Al-Qunfudhah Governorate, about 300 kilometres south of Mecca, on the Red Sea coast in Saudi Arabia’s Western Region.

    The project is expected to enhance water supply chains and is intended to serve the Mecca and Al-Baha regions.

    Netherlands-headquartered KPMG acted as SWPC’s financial adviser, with UK-based Eversheds Sutherland acting as the legal adviser for the project.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13485233/main.gif
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Egypt faces complex economic reality

    13 March 2025

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13483136/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • LIVE WEBINAR: GCC Projects Market 2025

    13 March 2025

    Register now

    Topic: GCC Projects Market 2025

    Date & time: 11:00 AM GST, 20 March 2025

    Agenda:

    • Introduction and overview of the GCC projects market
    • Data-driven historical and current performance
    • Top clients and contractors
    • Assessment of main market drivers
    • Summary of the Saudi gigaprojects programme
    • Market overview by country and sector
    • Market pipeline and outlook for 2025 and beyond
    • Key trends, opportunities and challenges
    • Selected major projects to watch
    • Q&A session

    Hosted by: Edward James, head of content and analysis at MEED

    A well-known and respected thought leader in Mena affairs, Edward James has been with MEED for more than 19 years, working as a researcher, consultant and content director. Today he heads up all content and research produced by the MEED group. His specific areas of expertise are construction, hydrocarbons, power and water, and the petrochemicals market. He is considered one of the world’s foremost experts on the Mena projects market. He is a regular guest commentator on Middle East issues for news channels such as the BBC, CNN and ABC News and is a regular speaker at events in the region. 

    Click here to register

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13483162/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • Dubai property market rebounds in February

    13 March 2025

    Property prices in Dubai rebounded in February following a decline in January. Average property prices hit a record high of AED1,505 ($410) per square foot, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.41% or a rise of AED20.94 compared to January 2025, according to a statement from property agent Better Homes.

    The report also said there was a 17% increase in sales volume, reaching AED41bn across 14,929 transactions, marking a 15% month-on-month rise. This resurgence underscores Dubai's resilience and enduring appeal as a global property investment hub.

    The rebound comes just a month after a slight decline in property prices, which had marked the first decrease in over two years.

    In January, average prices fell by 0.57% to AED1,484 per square foot, raising concerns about market stabilisation. The February figures indicate that the market has quickly regained its momentum, driven primarily by a surge in off-plan properties, which accounted for 59% of all sales.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13483150/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman