meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Saudi economy shows signs of weakness

3 August 2023

 

The Saudi economy is showing signs of weakness as negative growth in the oil economy overshadows the positive growth registered by the non-oil economy.

On 31 July, London-based Capital Economics said the Saudi economy was now technically in recession after the kingdom's General Authority for Statistics (Gastat) confirmed that the economy contracted during the second quarter of this year with the publication of its GDP Flash Estimates.

The estimates show that the Saudi economy contracted by 0.1 per cent during the second quarter of this year compared to the first quarter. Real GDP declined by 1.4 per cent in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2022.

The statistics look more encouraging on an annual basis. Real GDP increased by 1.1 per cent during the second quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. The non-oil economy grew by 5.5 per cent in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, while the oil economy decreased by 4.2 per cent compared to the previous year. During the first quarter of this year, growth was 3.8 per cent compared to the first quarter of 2022. 

Projects performance

The projects market has also performed strongly during the first half of the year. According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, $42bn of deals were signed, the most on record. The previous high was the $28bn awarded during the first half of 2014.

Capital Economics said the technical recession was mainly due to reductions in oil production, despite the non-oil economy maintaining strong growth. The oil economy contracted by 1.4 per cent during the second quarter on a quarter-on-quarter basis, while the non-oil economy increased by 2 per cent.

Looking to the future, Saudi Arabia has adopted even more stringent cuts to its oil production in the third quarter, with an additional voluntary reduction of one million barrels a day in July and August.

Capital Economics expects this to counter further strength in the non-oil sector, leading to an anticipated contraction in GDP of about 3 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter. It also says there is a growing possibility that the upcoming Opec+’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting will result in the kingdom announcing the extension of this voluntary cut until at least the end of September.

If this occurs, the economy is expected to shrink by about 0.5 per cent over 2023. Excluding the global financial crisis and pandemic, this would mark the poorest GDP performance in over two decades.

IMF downgrade

The economic data for the second quarter was released shortly after the Washington-based IMF downgraded its real GDP growth projection for Saudi Arabia in 2023 to 1.9 per cent in its latest World Economic Outlook update.

The fund had in April anticipated a growth rate of 3.1 per cent for the year, adjusting this forecast to 2.1 per cent in June due to global macroeconomic concerns and uncertainties in oil demand.

The downward revision in Saudi Arabia’s growth forecast has broader implications for the wider Middle East region, which the IMF now expects to grow by 2.6 per cent in 2023, down from 3.1 per cent in its April forecast.

The slump in Saudi Arabia’s economic output contrasts strongly with its performance in 2022, when its growth was gauged at 8.7 per cent by the IMF, driven by a boost in oil revenue amid high energy prices. The kingdom also achieved its first budget surplus in almost a decade.

The signs of weakness in the Saudi economy coincide with reports of losses for the Public Investment Fund (PIF), which is driving much of the development of the non-oil economy in the kingdom. According to a report by Bloomberg, it made an investment activity loss of about $11bn in 2022, in sharp contrast to the $19bn profit reported the previous year. Despite the loss on investment activity made last year, PIF’s total assets grew from $676bn to about $778bn in 2022.

The PIF and its subsidiary companies are leading the development of a wide range of projects in the kingdom, including five official gigaproject developers. They are Neom, Red Sea Global, Roshn, Qiddiya and Diriyah.

Debt markets

The investment losses and the ramp-up of spending on domestic projects mean the PIF is likely to raise more debt. According to another report by Bloomberg, the fund has hired banks for a debut Islamic dollar bond sale to help finance its global spending plans. The fund could raise about $3bn, although the final size of the sukuk could be bigger depending on investor demand. It has mandated HSBC, Standard Chartered, Emirates NBD Bank and Al-Rajhi Capital for the offering.

As of the end of 2022, the fund’s borrowings amounted to $85bn. Earlier this year, it secured $5.5bn with a three-tranche green bond sale.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11050401/main.gif
Colin Foreman

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Saudi Arabia tenders Jeddah-Mecca highway PPP

    8 May 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Roads General Authority (RGA) and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP) have tendered the contract for the development of the Jeddah-Mecca highway project.

    The tender was issued on 19 April, with a bid submission deadline of 19 August.

    The scope of the tender is split into two sections: development of motor service areas (MSA) and highway services. 

    Under the MSA component, the company will develop, permit, finance, design, engineer, procure, construct, complete, test, commission, insure, operate and maintain three MSAs along the highway.

    The contract term is 25 years, including two years of the construction period.

    Each MSA plot will cover 34,500 square metres and will include facilities such as fuel stations, electric vehicle charging, truck services, tyre and oil change, car wash and repair, retail and food outlets, ATMs, restrooms, mosques, parking, landscaping and other associated utilities.

    The highway services component will include insurance, operation and maintenance of highway assets for 10 years.

    The 64-kilometre (km) Jeddah-Mecca highway has four lanes in each direction. The construction works on 51km are complete, while the rest is under construction and scheduled for completion in 2027.

    In March, the RGA and NCP prequalified three bidders to develop the project. These were:

    • Algihaz Holding / ICA Construction (local/Turkiye)
    • Lamar Holding / Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation (Bahrain/China)
    • Mada International Holding (local)

    The expression of interest notice for the project was first issued in October 2024, as MEED reported.

    The project is one of four planned highway schemes in the kingdom’s privatisation and public-private partnership (P&PPP) pipeline.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16731199/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • US sanctions Iraq’s deputy oil minister

    8 May 2026

    The US has sanctioned Iraq’s Deputy Oil Minister Ali Maarij Al-Bahadly, in another blow for the country’s oil and gas sector.

    In a statement released by the US Treasury, it said that he “abuses his position to facilitate the diversion of oil to be sold for the benefit of the Iranian regime and its proxy militias in Iraq”.

    The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac) has also designated three senior leaders of the militias Kata’ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada and Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq. 

    In its statement, it said that the US will continue to hold these groups and other militias in Iraq, such as Kata’ib Hizballah, accountable for their attacks against US personnel and civilians, diplomatic facilities and businesses across Iraq.

    Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, said: “Like a rogue gang, the Iranian regime is pillaging resources that rightfully belong to the Iraqi people.”

    He added: “Treasury will not stand idly by as Iran's military exploits Iraqi oil to fund terrorism against the United States and our partners.”

    Ofac said that it designated Iraq’s deputy minister of oil on 7 May because he had been “instrumental in facilitating the diversion of Iraqi oil products to benefit known Iran-affiliated oil smuggler Salim Ahmed Said, as well as Iran-backed terrorist militia Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq (AAH)”.

    It added: “For years, Maarij has used his official positions, first as the head of the Iraqi parliament’s oil and gas committee, and then within the Iraq Ministry of Oil, to enrich Said, AAH, and by extension, Iran.”

    The US Treasury said that it designated Said in June 2025 for running a network of companies selling Iranian oil falsely declared as Iraqi oil to avoid sanctions.

    In its statement, it said: “Integral to this operation was Said’s ability to obtain favoured access to Iraqi oil and procure forged documentation from Iraqi government officials, legitimising illicit oil.

    “To that end, Said was responsible for bribing complicit officials in the Iraqi government, as well as reportedly installing Maarij in his official position.”

    Since 2018, Maarij has held several positions in Iraq’s Oil Ministry, including head of the licensing and contracts office, deputy minister, and acting oil minister. 

    The US Treasury said that, in his official capacities, Maarij enabled Said to illicitly procure oil products by granting exportation rights to Said’s companies. 

    It claimed that Maarij authorised trucking several million dollars’ worth of oil a day from the Qayarah oil field to VS Oil Terminal in Khor Zubayr for export.

    The US sanctioned VS Oil Terminal in July last year.

    The US Treasury said that VS Oil oversaw the mixing of Iranian oil with Iraqi oil before being shipped to market. 

    It also said that Maarij is also responsible for falsifying documentation on the provenance of oil for Said’s network, enabling it to be smuggled to market disguised as purely Iraqi oil.

    Neither Iraq nor Iran has responded to the announcement of the new sanctions.

    The sanctions were announced as the US and Iran battle over control of the Strait of Hormuz, which has seen significant disruption to shipping since the US and Israel started their war with Iran on 28 February 2026.

    Iraq’s oil and gas sector is currently going through a crisis due to the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused the country’s oil exports to collapse.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16729987/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Sabic registers profit in first quarter of 2026

    8 May 2026

    Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) returned to profit in the first quarter of 2026, posting a net income of SR13.2m ($3.52m) compared to a SR1.21bn loss a year earlier. 

    The Saudi petrochemicals ​giant posted adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) of SR4.15bn for the three months to 31 March, up 25% from the previous quarter.

    The company’s revenue fell 6% quarter-on-quarter to SR26.15bn ($6.97m).

    Adjusted net income was recorded in at SR816m, compared to a loss in the previous quarter, while adjusted earnings per share stood at SR0.27.

    Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes rose to SR1.45bn, an increase of SR1.01bn from the prior quarter.

    Sabic said its net position shifted to a debt of SR2.77bn at the end of March, from a net cash position of SR3.61bn at the end of 2025.

    “Our transformation journey continues to deliver performance improvements that unlock greater value for our shareholders. We realised $220m at the Ebitda level on a recurring basis during the first quarter of 2026, in line with our planned improvement rate. This keeps us on track towards our cumulative 2030 annual target of $3bn, consisting of $1.4bn in cost excellence and $1.6bn in value creation,” Sabic CEO Faisal Alfaqeer said.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16719476/main1840.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Dubai extends bids for Hassyan SWRO pipeline packages

    7 May 2026

    Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) has extended the bid submission deadlines for two water transmission pipeline packages linked to phase two of the Hassyan seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant in Dubai.

    The tenders cover the supply, installation, testing and commissioning works for glass reinforced epoxy (GRE) water transmission pipelines. The project will enable potable water to be transmitted from the phase two plant into Dubai’s transmission network.

    The tender bond for the first package is AED9.6m ($2.6mn). The tender bond for the second project is AED17.9m. The deadlines for the two projects have been pushed back to 2 June and 4 June, respectively.

    Local firms Al-Nasr Contracting, Tristar E&C and Wade Adams, along with UAE firm Binladin Contracting Group, are among the companies expected to submit bids for the main contracts for these projects.

    In April, Dewa issued two separate tenders for transmission projects in the emirate.

    The first tender covers the supply, installation, testing and commissioning of GRE water transmission pipelines and associated works at several locations in Dubai. The closing date for submissions is 4 June. Bidders are required to provide a tender bond of AED9m ($2.45m).

    The second tender relates to 132kV cable works and associated modifications at several substations, including the Autosouq, Crystal and Danaro Road substations. The package also includes a new 132kV cable circuit and cable shifting works linked to the DXB INTRL 400/132kV substation.

    The bid submission deadline is 11 June, with a required tender bond of AED17.5m.

    In January, Dewa announced that construction of the 180 million imperial gallons a day phase one of the Hassyan SWRO independent water project was 90% complete.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16716599/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Teams form for Qiddiya high-speed rail PPP

    7 May 2026

     

    Firms are forming joint ventures as part of a public-private partnership (PPP) package to bid for the upcoming works on the Qiddiya high-speed rail project in Riyadh.

    The latest development follows Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City, Qiddiya Investment Company and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP receiving prequalification statements from firms by 30 April for the PPP package of the rail project.

    The consortiums that are planning to bid for the PPP package are:

    • McQuarie / Hitachi / Keolis / Albawani / WeBuild / Hyundai / HyundaiRotem
    • ⁠Plenary / Siemens / MTR / FCC / Nesma & Partners / Freyssinet
    • ⁠Vision Invest / CRRC / Mapa 
    • Mada International / ⁠Renfe / Alstom / Hassan Allam Construction / El-Seif Engineering Contracting / China State Construction Engineering Corporation / Limak Holding
    • Lamar Holding / Talgo / Mermec / China Harbour Engineering Company / Al-Ayuni Investment & Contracting

    The prequalification notice was issued on 19 January, and a project briefing session was held on 23 February at Qiddiya Entertainment City.

    The Qiddiya high-speed rail project, also known as Q-Express, will cover 84 kilometres, connecting King Salman International airport and King Abdullah Financial District with Qiddiya City.

    The line will operate at speeds of up to 250 kilometres an hour, reaching Qiddiya in 30 minutes.

    There are five stations planned: Qiddiya Grand Central Station, Qiddiya Uptown Station, King Abdullah Financial District, Terminal 6 King Salman International Airport (KSIA) and Iconic Terminal at KSIA.

    Last month, MEED exclusively reported that contractors had submitted their prequalification statements for the engineering, procurement, construction and financing package by 16 April.

    In November 2023, MEED reported that French consultant Egis had been appointed as the technical adviser for the project. UK-based consultancy Ernst & Young is acting as the transaction adviser, and Ashurst is the legal adviser.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16716585/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal