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Saudi Arabia to retain upstream dominance

6 March 2025

 

This package also includes: Offshore oil and gas sees steady capex

Globally, the total production of oil and gas from active, announced and planned fields is projected to increase moderately in the 2025-30 outlook period. 

The Middle East is poised to lead global oil and gas production by 2030, owing to its extensive reserves, significant investments in infrastructure and favourable government policies, according to a recent report by GlobalData.

North America is expected to follow closely, propelled by the shale revolution, technological advancements and substantial investments in infrastructure, says the Global Upstream Production and Capital Expenditure Outlook, 2025-30 report.

The US is slated to maintain its position as the global leader in oil and gas production until 2030. The exploitation of shale resources through hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling has unlocked reserves that had previously been deemed uneconomical, significantly contributing to production growth.

Furthermore, the US benefits from a mature and sophisticated energy sector that is adept at leveraging technological advancements to optimise production.

Saudi Aramco is positioned to spearhead globally with an anticipated total oil and gas production entitlement of 14.9 million barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2030 from both existing fields and those that have been announced or planned. Expansion projects at the Zuluf offshore oil field and the Jafurah gas field will enable the kingdom to boost its production, GlobalData forecasts.

Crude and condensate output

Globally, the crude and condensate from active, announced and planned fields is projected to decline slightly during the 2025-30 outlook period, mainly due to maturing oil fields, stringent environmental regulations and the shift to renewables, among other factors. 

The anticipated decline in production is expected to occur in several regions. The notable exception to this trend is South America, where crude output is projected to increase, primarily as a result of expected production increases in both Brazil and Guyana. 

On the country level, the US is anticipated to lead global crude and condensate production by 2030, driven by advances in technology, infrastructure investments, shale production and increasing global energy demand. 

Following closely, Russia and Saudi Arabia, with their extensive oil reserves and significant investments in oil infrastructure, are poised to maintain prominent positions in the market. 

Brazil is expected to contribute 15% of the global crude and condensate production from planned and announced fields, or 1.89 million barrels a day (b/d) in 2030. The upcoming development of the Bacalhau oil field and blocks nine, 11 and 12 of the Buzios (formerly Franco) oil field, is expected to contribute to the country’s increase in liquid production, the report says. 

Saudi Aramco is anticipated to be the global leader in crude and condensate
production entitlement, with a projected total output of 11.8 million b/d in 2030 from its producing, planned and announced fields.

Russia’s Rosneft is expected to follow with a production level of 4 million b/d. Brazilian state-owned Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) is expected to be the largest producer of crude and condensate production from announced and planned projects with 1,002 million b/d in 2030. 

US-based ExxonMobil and state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corporation are the other key players in terms of crude and condensate production.

Gas production

Natural gas production from active, announced and planned fields globally is projected to increase significantly during the 2025-30 outlook period, due to its role as a bridge fuel in the energy transition, as well as the escalating global demand for gas, its extensive industrial use, the expansion of liquefied natural gas infrastructure and ongoing technological advancements in gas extraction and production.

The US is expected be the leading country in terms of gas production in 2030 from producing, planned and announced fields. This is thanks to the nation’s vast array of gas resources, encompassing both shale gas and associated gas from oil operations. Moreover, the US benefits from rising global demand for natural gas.

Following closely, Russia is anticipated to be a major contributor, bolstered by major investments in gas infrastructure. The Kharasaveiskoye, Geofizicheskoye and Kruzenshternskoye gas fields are key upcoming greenfield projects in terms of natural gas production in the country.

Gazprom is anticipated to spearhead globally with the highest natural gas production entitlement, encompassing producing, planned and announced fields. 

Other major companies include the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and China National Petroleum Corporation, with respective production entitlements of 33.5 billion cubic feet a day (cf/d) and 17.4 billion cf/d in 2030. 

Gazprom is anticipated to become the world’s leading producer of natural gas, with a projected output of 10.1 billion cf/d by 2030 from its planned and announced projects. Following closely are the NIOC and QatarEnergy, with expected production levels of 8.8 billion cf/d and 6.7 billion cf/d, respectively, by 2028.

Offshore oil and gas sees steady capex 

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Indrajit Sen

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