Saudi power projects hit record high
21 February 2025

Saudi Arabia has entered what could be the busiest period for power generation capacity buildout in its history.
According to data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects and MEED, power generation projects with a total capacity of 53GW are under construction, or are about to start construction following the formal award of contracts or the selection of bidders.
Generation and cogeneration plants powered by natural gas account for two-thirds, or 66.7%, of the total capacity under construction, with renewable energy plants – mainly solar – accounting for the rest.
Solar and wind power plants dominate the pre-execution pipeline, however, accounting for about 94% of the capacity that is currently under bid or prequalification.
The total thermal and renewable generation capacity being planned and tendered in Saudi Arabia, inclusive of projects in the study and design phases, stood at about 80GW as of February 2025.
The major capacity buildout is in line with the kingdom's liquid displacement programme, as well as its target for renewable energy sources to account for half its electricity production by 2030.
According to the Energy Institute, Saudi Arabia's total electricity generation in 2023 reached 422.9 terawatt-hours (TWh). Oil accounted for 152.1TWh, or about 36% of the total, while natural gas accounted for 265TWh, or 63%, and renewables made up 5.8TWh or 1%.
CCGT plants
The urgency of displacing the kingdom's oil-fired fleet underpins the successive contract awards for combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power generation plants, which are being developed as independent power projects (IPPs) or via engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts.
About 47% of the 35.8GW of gas-fired capacity that is under construction is being built via an EPC or design-and-build model, mainly by Saudi Electricity Company (SEC). The rest is being constructed using an IPP model.
Of the total thermal capacity under construction, about 45% will be generated by greenfield power plants that are being built as an expansion to existing power generation facilities in the kingdom.
Chinese contractors such as Sepco 3 and China Energy Engineering Corporation are among the firms constructing 10 of the 19 gas-fired power generation and cogeneration plants that are under execution in Saudi Arabia. An 11th plant is being constructed by Sepco 3 in partnership with Doosan Enerbility of South Korea. The 11 plants equate to a capacity of about 21GW.
South Korean contractors – primarily Doosan and Samsung C&T – are involved in four of the 19 projects.
"I think the Chinese EPC contractors are already at capacity, so SEC has started tapping Egyptian and Spanish EPC contractors," an industry source tells MEED, in reference to Tecnicas Reunidas, Orascom and Elsewedy, which were selected last year to undertake the EPC contracts for several CCGT plants.
The peak for new gas-fired contract awards may have passed, however.
Data from MEED Projects indicates that four cogeneration plants with a combined capacity of about 1.5GW are in the pre-execution stage. Meanwhile, at least two gas-fired IPP schemes – Shoaiba and Al-Shuqaiq – are currently under study, each with a planned capacity of 2.6GW.
However, the possibility of an unexpected new project, like the 3GW expansion of the Qurayyah IPP, which was announced on 20 February, cannot be ruled out.
Renewables
A reverse trend could be seen for renewable solar power generation capacity.
As of February 2025, nearly all renewable energy capacity under construction in Saudi Arabia is being developed as IPPs.
About 43% of these IPPs are publicly tendered by the principal buyer, Saudi Power Procurement Company (SPPC). The rest are directly negotiated by Saudi sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and the dominant local utility developer, Acwa Power.
The pre-execution pipeline for solar and wind energy projects that will be procured by SEC and gigaproject developer Neom is extensive, especially given that the Energy Ministry has issued a directive that up to 20GW of renewable energy capacity be procured annually until 2030, subject to demand growth.
"It is a massive pipeline," notes a Dubai-based senior transaction adviser.
However, he also notes that a re-scoping process is under way, especially for renewable energy projects that are designed to cater to Neom, the $500bn development in northwestern Saudi Arabia, which aims to be powered 100% by renewables by 2030.
Issues related to land allocation may also arise, if they haven't already, notes another industry expert.
The deployment of additional renewable energy capacity also requires a major battery energy storage system buildout. Efforts towards this got under way last year to ensure the flexibility of the electricity grid.
"The question is how many batteries they will need and how many batteries will be available to support that ambition," the source said.
Data centres
In addition to the liquid displacement programme and the 50% renewable energy production target by 2030, Saudi Arabia has been seeing a major uptick in data centre construction projects, in line with a plan to become a major artificial intelligence (AI) hub.
Hyperscalers such as Amazon Web Services, Google and Microsoft plan to expand their digital or cloud infrastructure in Saudi Arabia in line with this strategy. These and other AI players, as well as local firms such as DataVolt, Ezditek, Alfanar and the UAE-based Gulf Data Hub, pledged about $15bn of investments in this type of infrastructure during the Leap technology conference, which took place in Riyadh on 9-12 February. More investments are expected to be announced in the coming months and years.
These projects, assuming they all come to fruition, will significantly increase computing, cooling and overall electricity demand. The need to make these advanced data centres as sustainable as possible will also further incentivise the kingdom's national renewable energy programme.
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US–Iran deal sets Hormuz road map17 June 2026
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The US-Iran agreement, declared complete on 14 June, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, lifts the US naval blockade and ends a war that has closed the Gulf’s export artery since 28 February. The strait reopens at Friday’s signing on paper, but the recovery will take months.
US President Donald Trump announced the deal on Truth Social, authorising the "toll-free opening" of the strait and the immediate removal of the blockade, with formal signing set for Geneva on 19 June – with vice-president JD Vance to sign for Washington and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf for Tehran in the highest-level US-Iran meeting since 1979.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed the text was finalised but said Tehran would not implement it until signing, with the strait staying closed in the interim.
Signing versus substance
The signing on 19 June is merely the starting line that will set in motion a partial reopening to traffic alongside a clearance operation to remove the mines laid by Tehran across key sections of the strait.
The memorandum gives Iranian forces 30 days from signing to clear the strait of mines. At the same time, the Pentagon’s estimates appear to suggest that a full minesweeping could take up to six months, even with three dedicated vessels in the region.
Such gaps – here a 30-day treaty obligation against a six-month operational reality – have become the running feature of the bilateral negotiations, which have been framed by mutual distrust and plagued by an absence of granular detail.
The deal is welcome for the region despite its uncertainty. Behind the mines sits a tanker backlog built over more than 100 days, and Gulf producers that throttled back production and need time and assurances to restore flow.
Before the war, roughly 100 ships transited daily; Kpler now projects around 40 a day could sail within the first month, but with an estimated 300 loaded vessels stranded on either side of the strait, and 250 more sitting empty and idle in the Gulf, it is a pressure release valve, not an immediate restoration of flow.
A total restoration of oil and trade flows is unlikely to come into view before the year’s end.
Insurance represents the second brake, with war-risk premiums standing at 1-4% of vessel value per transit, or about $8m for a $200m tanker – against less than 0.1% before the war.
Shipping associations are no less cautious, with the Baltic and International Maritime Council calling for verified mine-free routes before volume traffic resumes.
Insurance underwriters are likewise unlikely to relent on prices until clearance is confirmed.
Conditional relief
Markets have already traded the sentiment, however. Brent settled at $87.33 on 13 June – an eight-week low – and have fallen further as the deal has firmed. As of early morning trading on 16 June, the first full day of trading after the Islamic New Year, Brent was down at $78.
Yet the relief remains highly conditional: a 60-day nuclear negotiation now follows the signing, and a breakdown in either this, passage through the strait or peace in Lebanon could return the strait to crisis.
The US-touted toll-free terminology is also narrower than billed, with the Iranians instead affirming a 60-day grace period for fees but not eliminating the possibility of “fees” for navigation, environmental and insurance services after that point.
The distinction is legal, not rhetorical, with international maritime law barring tolls on passage through natural straits but permitting the imposition of service fees on vessels passing through territorial waters.
It is through this terminology that Iran is now consistently framing its plans to charge fees from passing vessels through the office of its Persian Gulf Strait Authority – established 5 May and since sanctioned by the US Treasury.
For the Gulf, a 60-day waiver that resolves into an Iranian (and possibly joint Omani) fee regime is a pause in Iran’s tollgate economy, not its end – and would represent a strategic concession for the US, the Gulf and the globe.
Levant entanglement
Lebanon is another conditional space that the deal cannot fully escape, with a flare-up on that front being the final potential trigger that could collapse the 60-day agreement.
Iran has explicitly tied a ceasefire in Lebanon to the resolution of transit in the strait, but Israel does not agree with this, and the linkage may have inadvertently handed Tel Aviv the exact tool it needs to disrupt the US–Iran ceasefire – through the simple of continuing a conflict that it already wants to continue.
Within a day of the deal, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said the IDF would stay in southern Lebanon “without any time limit”, with US officials corroborating that Israeli withdrawal was never a condition of a deal.
On the ground, the ceasefire is already looking frail, with post-deal fire straying in both directions and already endangering the regional calm and Hormuz reopening the Gulf is already pricing.
For Gulf producers and shippers, the distinction and in some cases friction between what the deal declares and what it actually delivers remains a cause for uncertainty.
A declaration is easy, but the delivery requires nuclear negotiation, mine-clearance verification, insurance repricing and a 60-day political test before barrels can again move at volume.
Trump, who has been frustrated for months with the slow progress on Iran from a US perspective, is also more than likely to be distracted by other concerns on a timeline shorter than 60 days – risking the political will to peace coming up short.
In the Gulf, whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE send cabinet-level representatives to Geneva on Friday will signal whether the region’s political leaders are willing to wield the political capital necessary to keep the US on track and pursue the ceasefire to fruition.
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