Riyadh’s 130GW renewable target needs justification

25 June 2024

Commentary
Jennifer Aguinaldo
Energy & technology editor

Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, recently confirmed plans to tender 20GW of renewable energy projects annually starting this year, in line with reaching 100GW-130GW of installed capacity by 2030, "depending on electricity demand growth".

It is the highest-level confirmation yet that the kingdom has revised its target of having 58.7GW of renewable energy installed capacity by the end of the decade.

Notably, the upward revision of the renewable energy installed capacity target does not change the original objective for renewable sources to account for 50% of the kingdom's overall electricity production installed capacity by 2030.

This implies a parallel growth in gas-fired capacity due to the need to implement the kingdom's liquid fuel displacement programme and build baseload capacity to deal with the intermittency of renewable sources such as solar and wind, notwithstanding plans to build multi-gigawatts of battery energy storage system capacity.

However, not everyone is convinced that Saudi Arabia needs this much capacity so soon, despite the all-important qualifier "depending on electricity demand growth".

"Where will the power be used, can the grid take it, and where is the population and industry data to justify the demand growth?" asks an executive with an infrastructure investor.

According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena), Saudi Arabia's electricity generation capacity stood at about 84GW in 2022, with renewable energy capacity accounting for 1% of the total.

The same report specifies that oil sources accounted for 49% of the kingdom's total energy supply in 2020.  

According to BP's annual statistical review, Saudi Arabia's electricity generation in 2021 amounted to roughly 357 terawatt-hours, which is estimated to require about 44GW of installed capacity. This is approximately one-half of the kingdom's installed capacity if the Irena report is anything to go by.

Crucially, UK-headquartered data services provider GlobalData, which reports a higher cumulative installed capacity of 94GW for Saudi Arabia, expects the kingdom's overall capacity to increase by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 2% between 2023 and 2035.

An assumed 2.4% CAGR would take Saudi Arabia's installed capacity to about 96GW by 2030, using the Irena installed capacity of 84GW as a baseline. Based on this, plus a further assumption that all oil-fired and aging gas-fired capacity will be retired by 2030, the kingdom could need to procure at least 50GW-60GW by the end of the decade.

However, this figure does not factor in the amount of baseload required to balance its electricity system as more intermittent renewable energy enters the kingdom's grid.

Massive survey

It is significant that Prince Abdulaziz issued the above statement on 24 June, when the ministry announced the start of a project to survey 850,000 square kilometres of land in Saudi Arabia – equivalent to the land areas of the UK and France combined – to determine the most suitable locations for solar and wind projects.

Such a statement leaves open to speculation whether the aspirational target of 100GW-130GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030 includes the capacity planned by gigaproject developer Neom, which aims to be fully powered by renewable energy by 2030, and which has already carried out pre-development work for over 35GW of solar capacity

The question now seems to be whether the kingdom's ongoing gigaprojects, its industrial expansion plans and green hydrogen projects, and its clean energy export ambitions will justify building twice as much capacity as forecast based on historical data and its current needs.

"Justifications are important, otherwise such lofty plans only expose investors to increased risk," the source told MEED. 

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11992190/main3432.jpg
Jennifer Aguinaldo
Related Articles
  • Dewa retenders pumping stations package

    18 March 2025

    State utility Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) has retendered a contract to build pumping stations and related facilities in the emirate.

    The contract covers the construction of a pumping station (PS6) catering to the 30-million-imperial-gallons-a-day Ghafat Idah reservoir complex and another pumping station on Endurance Road (PS21), phase one, stream A. 

    The contract covers all electro-mechanical and supervisory control and data acquisition (Scada) works.

    Dewa expects to receive bids for the retendered contract by 15 May.

    The tender requires interested firms to submit a bid bond of AED5m ($1.37m).

    Dewa first tendered the contract in April last year and received six bids three months later.

    Local contracting company Sawaed Alqafelah General Contracting (Syed Contracting) submitted the lowest bid of  AED78.76m ($21.44m). 

    Japan’s Torishima Pump Manufacturing Company – the only non-local bidder – offered the second-lowest bid of AED86.05m, with an optional offer of AED85.12m.

    The other bidders and their offers were:

    • Danway Electrical & Mechanical (local): AED99.4m
    • Binghalib Technology (local): AED179.24m (main); AED 174.96m (option one)
    • Green Oasis General Contracting (local): AED200.18m
    • Emarat Aloula Contracting (local): AED242.69m (main); AED239.08m (option one)

    Three companies declined to bid for the contract, including India’s Larsen & Toubro, the local Lindenberg Emirates and United Engineering Construction.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13502735/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Tabreed confirms $408m Palm Jebel Ali deal

    17 March 2025

    Abu Dhabi-headquartered National Central Cooling Company (Tabreed) has signed a concession agreement with Dubai Holding Investments, part of Dubai Holding, to provide district cooling services for Palm Jebel Ali in Dubai. 

    MEED reported in January that talks were under way for a contract to develop new district cooling plants on Palm Jebel Ali, with an initial capacity of 25,000 refrigeration tonnes (RTs).

    Tabreed said the system will address the need for approximately 250,000 RTs of cooling capacity and require an estimated investment of AED1.5bn ($408m) over multiple phases, making it one of the largest district cooling plant projects ever awarded in the UAE.

    In a statement, Tabreed said the agreement establishes a joint venture, with Tabreed holding a 51% stake and Dubai Holding Investments retaining the remaining 49%.

    Tabreed’s major shareholders, sovereign investor Mubadala (42%) and French utility developer Engie (40%), supported the firm’s proposal to develop the project.

    Tabreed CEO Khalid Al-Marzooqi and Dubai Holding Investments CEO Omar Karim signed the agreement in the presence of senior officials from Tabreed, Dubai Holding, Mubadala and Engie. 

    The construction of the district cooling network is expected to commence in Q2 2025, with the first cooling services expected to be delivered by 2027.

    The deal is subject to customary approvals.

    Tabreed acquired an 80% stake in Emaar Property’s Downtown Dubai district cooling business at a cost of AED2.48bn ($675m) in 2020.

    Tabreed raised AED700m ($190.6m) via an inaugural, five-year green sukuk as the first issuance under its new $1.5bn trust certificate issuance scheme, the firm said in early March.

    The firm reported a revenue of AED2.4bn and a net profit before tax of AED624m in 2024, representing a 4% increase over 2023, excluding one-offs.

    Its Ebitda increased by 5% year-on-year to AED1.25bn, with an improved margin of 51%. Net profit after tax stood at AED570m, up 32% compared to AED431m in 2023.

    Mixed-use developments in the region commonly deploy district cooling. The process involves using a central chiller plant to cool water, which is circulated to multiple buildings to provide cooling.

    It is considered more energy-efficient, consuming at least 20% less electricity than conventional air-cooled or individual water-cooled air conditioning systems.

    Photo credit: Tabreed

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13498692/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Alkhorayef wins four water contracts

    17 March 2025

    The local firm Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies Company has won the contract to operate and maintain four water treatment plants in Saudi Arabia.

    The water treatment plants are located in Wadi Aldawaser, Alsalil, Alsafa in Najran and Alwajid.

    According to a company filing, the contract is worth SR58.78m ($15.7m).

    Saudi Water Authority, formerly Saline Water Conversion Company (SWCC), awarded the contract to Alkhorayef on 16 March.

    In July last year, Saudi Arabia’s National Water Company (NWC) awarded contracts to install new water and wastewater connections across six regions in Saudi Arabia.

    The 36-month contracts, described as blanket purchase agreements, were worth SR190.8m ($50.8m).

    The water and wastewater connections will be located in Al-Qassim, Hail and Jizan and in the north, south and central sectors of the kingdom’s Eastern Region.


    MEED’s April 2025 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > POWER: Saudi power sector enters busiest year
    > WATER: Saudi water contracts set another annual record

    > UPSTREAM: Saudi oil and gas spending to surpass 2024 level
    > DOWNSTREAM: Aramco’s recalibrated chemical goals reflect realism
    > CONSTRUCTION: Reprioritisation underpins Saudi construction
    > TRANSPORT: Riyadh pushes ahead with infrastructure development
    > BANKING:
     Saudi banks work to keep pace with credit expansion

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13498519/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Firms prepare Al-Zarraf solar PV bids

    17 March 2025

     

    Prequalified firms have approximately three months to form consortiums and prepare proposals for a contract to develop Abu Dhabi’s fifth utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) independent power project (IPP).

    State utility Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec) prequalified 16 companies that can bid for the Al-Zarraf solar IPP, also known as PV5, which will have a capacity of 1,500MW.

    Industry sources say up to five consortiums are being formed to bid for the contract as of mid-March.

    The 10 firms that may bid as managing members of the bidding consortiums are: 

    • AlJomaih Energy & Water (Saudi Arabia)
    • EDF Renewables (France)
    • International Power (Engie)
    • Jera Nex (Japan)
    • Jinko Power (Hong Kong)
    • Korea Electric Power Corporation (Kepco, South Korea)
    • Korea Western Power Company (Kowepo)
    • Marubeni Corporation (Japan)
    • SPIC Hunaghe Hydropower Development Company (China)
    • Sumitomo Corporation (Japan)

    The following six companies may bid as consortium members:

    • Alfanar Company (Saudi Arabia)
    • Alghanim International General Trading & Contracting (Kuwait)
    • China Power Engineering Consulting Group International Engineering Company (CPECC, China)
    • Etihad Water & Electricity (UAE)
    • Orascom Construction (Egypt)
    • PowerChina International Group (China)

    Ewec received expressions of interest for the contract from 20 companies and consortiums in October last year and issued the tender in January.

    It expects to receive bids for the contract by 12 June, one of the sources said.

    Like the first four solar IPPs tendered by Ewec, the Al-Zarraf solar IPP will involve the development, financing, construction, operation, maintenance and ownership of the solar PV plant and associated infrastructure.

    The successful bidder or consortium will enter into a long-term power-purchase agreement with Ewec as the sole procurer of electricity.

    Ewec opened the bids for its fourth utility-scale solar project, the Al-Khazna solar IPP or PV4, on 30 October.

    Engie offered a levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of AED fils 5.35502 ($c1.459) a kilowatt-hour (kWh) for the contract, beating by roughly 3% the second-lowest offer made by a team of China’s Jinko Power and Japan’s Jera of AED fils 5.54126/kWh.

    A team of France’s EDF Renewables and its partner, Korea Western Power Company (Kowepo), emerged with the highest offer of AED fils 5.86311/kWh. 

    Ewec is expected to award the Al-Khazna solar IPP contract to Engie around the second quarter of this year, as MEED reported.

    Successful PV bidders

    In 2016, a team of Japan’s Marubeni and Jinko Power won the contract to develop and operate Abu Dhabi’s first utility-scale solar PV project in Sweihan, the 934MW Noor Abu Dhabi IPP.

    Four years later, in 2020, a team comprising EDF Renewables and Jinko Power won the contract to develop the 1,500MW Al-Dhafra solar PV, which was inaugurated last year.

    In April 2024, Ewec awarded the contract to develop PV3, the 1,500MW Al-Ajban solar IPP, to a team led by EDF Renewables and including Kowepo.

    Ewec forecasts that at least 18,000MW of solar PV will be in operation by 2035, supporting the realisation of the Abu Dhabi Department of Energy’s Clean Energy Strategic Target 2035.

    The programme envisages renewable and clean energy sources meeting 60% of the emirate’s total power demand at the end of the forecast period. 


    MEED’s April 2025 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > POWER: Saudi power sector enters busiest year
    > WATER: Saudi water contracts set another annual record

    > UPSTREAM: Saudi oil and gas spending to surpass 2024 level
    > DOWNSTREAM: Aramco’s recalibrated chemical goals reflect realism
    > CONSTRUCTION: Reprioritisation underpins Saudi construction
    > TRANSPORT: Riyadh pushes ahead with infrastructure development
    > BANKING:
     Saudi banks work to keep pace with credit expansion

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13498422/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Contractors submit final offers for Diriyah Arena district

    17 March 2025

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s Diriyah Company has received the last and final offers from firms for the contract to build the Arena Block assets in the Boulevard Southwest section in the DG2 area of the Diriyah gigaproject.

    MEED understands that final proposals were submitted last week and the award is expected shortly for the multibillion-riyal package, which consists of mixed-use facilities, including offices.

    Tendering activity is also progressing on several other major schemes at Diriyah, including the Royal Diriyah Opera House project. It is understood that the bid evaluation has reached the final stages and the contract will likely be finalised in March.

    In January, the client also asked firms to prequalify for a contract to build a new museum in the DG2 area of the Diriyah project.

    MEED previously reported that Diriyah Company had asked firms to prequalify for another contract covering the infrastructure development works in the DG2 area of Diriyah.

    Developed by Diriyah Company, the Diriyah masterplan envisages the city as a cultural and lifestyle tourism destination. Located northwest of Riyadh’s city centre, it covers 14 square kilometres and combines 300 years of history, culture and heritage with hospitality facilities.

    The company awarded several significant contracts last year, including two major contracts worth over SR16bn ($4bn). These include an estimated $2bn contract awarded to a joint venture of El-Seif Engineering & Contracting and China State to build the North Cultural District.

    In late July, Diriyah also awarded a $2.1bn package to a joint venture of local contractor Albawani and Qatar’s Urbacon to construct assets in the Wadi Safar district of the gigaproject.

    In December, MEED reported that Diriyah Company had awarded an estimated SR5.8bn ($1.5bn) contract to local firm Nesma & Partners for its Jabal Al-Qurain Avenue cultural district, located in the northern district of the Diriyah Gate project.

    Once complete, Diriyah will have the capacity to house 100,000 residents and visitors.



    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13497960/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal