meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Riyadh’s 130GW renewable target needs justification

25 June 2024

Commentary
Jennifer Aguinaldo
Energy & technology editor

Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, recently confirmed plans to tender 20GW of renewable energy projects annually starting this year, in line with reaching 100GW-130GW of installed capacity by 2030, "depending on electricity demand growth".

It is the highest-level confirmation yet that the kingdom has revised its target of having 58.7GW of renewable energy installed capacity by the end of the decade.

Notably, the upward revision of the renewable energy installed capacity target does not change the original objective for renewable sources to account for 50% of the kingdom's overall electricity production installed capacity by 2030.

This implies a parallel growth in gas-fired capacity due to the need to implement the kingdom's liquid fuel displacement programme and build baseload capacity to deal with the intermittency of renewable sources such as solar and wind, notwithstanding plans to build multi-gigawatts of battery energy storage system capacity.

However, not everyone is convinced that Saudi Arabia needs this much capacity so soon, despite the all-important qualifier "depending on electricity demand growth".

"Where will the power be used, can the grid take it, and where is the population and industry data to justify the demand growth?" asks an executive with an infrastructure investor.

According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena), Saudi Arabia's electricity generation capacity stood at about 84GW in 2022, with renewable energy capacity accounting for 1% of the total.

The same report specifies that oil sources accounted for 49% of the kingdom's total energy supply in 2020.  

According to BP's annual statistical review, Saudi Arabia's electricity generation in 2021 amounted to roughly 357 terawatt-hours, which is estimated to require about 44GW of installed capacity. This is approximately one-half of the kingdom's installed capacity if the Irena report is anything to go by.

Crucially, UK-headquartered data services provider GlobalData, which reports a higher cumulative installed capacity of 94GW for Saudi Arabia, expects the kingdom's overall capacity to increase by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 2% between 2023 and 2035.

An assumed 2.4% CAGR would take Saudi Arabia's installed capacity to about 96GW by 2030, using the Irena installed capacity of 84GW as a baseline. Based on this, plus a further assumption that all oil-fired and aging gas-fired capacity will be retired by 2030, the kingdom could need to procure at least 50GW-60GW by the end of the decade.

However, this figure does not factor in the amount of baseload required to balance its electricity system as more intermittent renewable energy enters the kingdom's grid.

Massive survey

It is significant that Prince Abdulaziz issued the above statement on 24 June, when the ministry announced the start of a project to survey 850,000 square kilometres of land in Saudi Arabia – equivalent to the land areas of the UK and France combined – to determine the most suitable locations for solar and wind projects.

Such a statement leaves open to speculation whether the aspirational target of 100GW-130GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030 includes the capacity planned by gigaproject developer Neom, which aims to be fully powered by renewable energy by 2030, and which has already carried out pre-development work for over 35GW of solar capacity. 

The question now seems to be whether the kingdom's ongoing gigaprojects, its industrial expansion plans and green hydrogen projects, and its clean energy export ambitions will justify building twice as much capacity as forecast based on historical data and its current needs.

"Justifications are important, otherwise such lofty plans only expose investors to increased risk," the source told MEED. 

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11992190/main3432.jpg
Jennifer Aguinaldo

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • SAR tenders design review consultancy for GCC rail link

    18 September 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) has issued a request for proposals (RFP) for a design management and review consultant to oversee engineering works on the GCC railway network, the latest step in advancing the long-delayed regional rail link.

    The RFP was issued on 9 September, with a submission deadline of 18 October.

    The tender seeks a consultant to manage, audit and verify deliverables produced by SAR's separately appointed design services consultant, rather than carry out the design itself. The tendering for the design services consultancy is currently in progress.

    Construction will be tendered separately through competitive bidding once designs are approved.

    The GCC railway will run for about 672 kilometres (km) inside Saudi Arabia, linking the kingdom's existing network to Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Bahrain, with four sections of about 141km, 200km, 151km and 21km, respectively.

    The line is planned as a single-track, non-electrified corridor for mixed freight and passenger traffic, with a maximum axle load of 32.4 tonnes and passing loops for bidirectional working.

    The appointed consultant will develop a design management and review plan covering governance, interdisciplinary coordination and stage-gate approvals, and will issue formal review and audit reports against SAR's requirements and international standards.

    The scope also covers stakeholder engagement, interface management and oversight of land acquisition activity tied to the design consultant's land acquisition plan.

    Key design stages are expected to take about 16 months: four months for concept design, six for preliminary design and six for issued-for-construction design, each with four weeks of contingency.

    SAR has asked bidders to mobilise a core team from day one. These must include a project director, engineering and design manager, stakeholder manager and lead document controller, all based at SAR's offices, with minimum experience thresholds ranging from three years for junior operators up to 25 years, including 15 in rail, for the project director role.

    GCC railway line

    Under the overall plan, the railway will run from Kuwait, pass through Dammam in Saudi Arabia, reach Bahrain via a planned causeway, and continue from Dammam to Qatar, the UAE and, ultimately, Muscat via Sohar in Oman. The railway is reported to cover about 2,186km in total.

    The route length within each member state is as follows:

    • UAE – 684km
    • Saudi Arabia – 672km
    • Oman – 306km
    • Qatar – 283km
    • Kuwait – 145km
    • Bahrain – 36km

    The railway is designed for passenger trains travelling at 220 kilometres an hour (km/h) and freight trains operating at 80km/h–120km/h.

    With high levels of project activity, governments in spending mode and renewed cooperation under the Al-Ula Declaration, the latest efforts to restart the GCC railway project may make more progress than previous attempts. If completed, the railway could prove transformational for a region that is globally connected but still divided by national borders.

    READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19783331/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Tender issued for Libyan gas project

    17 September 2026

    An invitation to bid has been issued for a contract to conduct environmental assessments for the project to expand the Mellitah oil and gas complex in Libya.

    The bid submission deadline is 2pm today (17 September) Libyan time.

    The scope of the project includes provision of:

    • An environmental baseline study (EBS)
    • An environmental impact assessment (EIA)
    • An environmental management plan (EMP)

    The client is Mellitah Oil & Gas (MOG), which is a joint venture of Italy’s Eni and Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC).

    MOG is based in Tripoli and operates both onshore and offshore oil and gas facilities.

    The joint venture owns and operates six major oil and gas fields across the North African country.

    According to the tender documents, the company that is awarded the contract will need to prepare environmental management measures in compliance with:

    • Libyan environmental legislation
    • Ministry of Environment requirements
    • NOC environmental guidelines
    • Applicable international environmental standards and best practices

    The expansion of the Mellitah oil and gas complex is part of a project estimated to be worth $8bn.

    The wider project is known as the Mellitah Complex Expansion & CO2 Management Integrated Development Project.

    It has six main packages:

    • Onshore package
    • Offshore Structure A
    • Offshore Structure E
    • Subsea pipeline package
    • Site preparation work
    • Carbon capture and storage facility

    Security issues and political instability have been a major problem for Libya’s oil and gas sector since the country’s civil war started in 2011.

    Earlier this month, the Mellitah oil and gas complex was forced to shut down temporarily due to a protest over deteriorating public services.

    The existing onshore complex includes housing, processing units, storage facilities and export facilities.

    It also serves as the launch point for the Greenstream pipeline, which delivers Libyan gas directly to Italy.

    The planned expansion of the complex will involve:

    • Construction of a new fourth gas processing train
    • Construction of a third condensate train
    • Construction of a third natural gas liquids fractionation train
    • Construction of a fourth sulphur recovery unit train
    • Installation of a hydrogen sulphide enrichment unit
    • Installation of a sulphur recovery unit
    • Construction of other associated facilities

    The Mellitah complex is located about 100 kilometres west of Tripoli and is a key energy facility in the west of the country.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19748920/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Nakheel awards $218m Dubai Islands buildings deal

    17 September 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dubai-based developer Nakheel, now part of Dubai Holding, has awarded a main construction contract worth more than AED800m ($218m) for phases one and three of Bay Grove Residences at Dubai Islands.

    The contract was awarded to the local firm Metac General Contracting Company.

    It covers the construction of 537 apartments, comprising one- to four-bedroom units, across seven residential buildings.

    Phase one includes 296 units in four buildings, while phase three comprises 241 units across three buildings.

    The works are scheduled for completion in late 2028.

    Bay Grove Residences will ultimately comprise 1,154 homes across 15 buildings. Planning is under way for the remaining 617 homes in phases two and four, with further contract awards expected.

    In August last year, Nakheel awarded a AED2.6bn ($708m) contract to Abu Dhabi-based Fibrex Contracting to build the Bay Villas project at Dubai Islands. The contract includes constructing 636 villas.

    In April this year, another AED527m ($143m) contract was awarded to local firm Al-Nasr Contracting Company to construct the primary infrastructure and utilities works on Island B at the development.

    The Dubai Islands development consists of five islands spanning 18.6 square kilometres. It features more than 59 kilometres (km) of waterfront and 20km of beaches, as well as parks, golf courses, promenades and cycling paths.

    The offshore island project gained renewed momentum in 2022, when Nakheel unveiled a new masterplan and rebranded it as Dubai Islands.

    The reclaimed islands were originally part of the Palm Deira project, which was partially completed before being put on hold in 2008.

    READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19748850/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Aldar and Mubadala acquire Masdar City Square

    17 September 2026

    Abu Dhabi-based sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investment Company and local developer Aldar have completed the acquisition of Masdar City Square at Masdar City, in a transaction valued at AED918m ($250m).

    The deal was executed through their joint venture established in 2024.

    Masdar City Square comprises more than 47,000 square metres (sq m) of net leasable area across seven office buildings.

    Completed in Q1 2026, the development is 99% occupied. Tenants include Taqa, the Department of Energy, Emirates College and the Mohamed Bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence.

    The transaction expands the joint venture’s real estate portfolio in Masdar City, which is now valued at AED4.7bn ($1.3bn).

    Masdar City is one of the region’s leading hubs for clean energy, artificial intelligence, advanced research and sustainable urban development.

    The joint venture acquired The Link project at Masdar City for AED654m ($178m) in April.

    Comprising about 32,000 sq m of net leasable area across five buildings, The Link is fully leased to a portfolio of major tenants, including Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) and the Mohamed Bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence.

    The asset includes Grade A, Leed Platinum office space, a net-zero-energy headquarters building, a multi-use hall and residential accommodation, supporting its position as a high-performing, integrated component of Masdar City.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19748241/main5814.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Neom tenders Oxagon highway contract

    17 September 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Neom has tendered a design-and-build contract covering permanent upgrade works on Highway 55 in the kingdom’s Oxagon region.

    The first phase of the project includes constructing 14 kilometres of road, with two lanes in each direction. It also covers one bridge and three interchanges.

    The project duration is 22 months.

    Contractors have been given until 21 September to submit their proposals.

    Highway 55 connects the Red Sea coast with the mainland in northwestern Saudi Arabia. It is currently the only road providing north-south connectivity between Duba and the Neom region.

    MEED exclusively reported in August 2025 that contractors had submitted responses to the expressions of interest notice that Neom had issued earlier that month.

    The project is expected to support the movement of cargo vehicles from Duba Port to other parts of the country and the wider region.

    Neom tested a pilot initiative last year by handling a shipment that travelled from Cairo via the Port of Safaga, across the Red Sea to the Port of Neom, and then inland to Erbil, Iraq.

    In a statement, Neom said: “The shipment travelled through an intermodal corridor spanning over 900 kilometres, marking a significant milestone in the kingdom’s transformation into a regional and global logistics hub.”

    The Port of Neom is located on the Red Sea near the Arar border, a key entry point into Iraq.

    READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19746896/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal