Riyadh’s 130GW renewable target needs justification

25 June 2024

Commentary
Jennifer Aguinaldo
Energy & technology editor

Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, recently confirmed plans to tender 20GW of renewable energy projects annually starting this year, in line with reaching 100GW-130GW of installed capacity by 2030, "depending on electricity demand growth".

It is the highest-level confirmation yet that the kingdom has revised its target of having 58.7GW of renewable energy installed capacity by the end of the decade.

Notably, the upward revision of the renewable energy installed capacity target does not change the original objective for renewable sources to account for 50% of the kingdom's overall electricity production installed capacity by 2030.

This implies a parallel growth in gas-fired capacity due to the need to implement the kingdom's liquid fuel displacement programme and build baseload capacity to deal with the intermittency of renewable sources such as solar and wind, notwithstanding plans to build multi-gigawatts of battery energy storage system capacity.

However, not everyone is convinced that Saudi Arabia needs this much capacity so soon, despite the all-important qualifier "depending on electricity demand growth".

"Where will the power be used, can the grid take it, and where is the population and industry data to justify the demand growth?" asks an executive with an infrastructure investor.

According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena), Saudi Arabia's electricity generation capacity stood at about 84GW in 2022, with renewable energy capacity accounting for 1% of the total.

The same report specifies that oil sources accounted for 49% of the kingdom's total energy supply in 2020.  

According to BP's annual statistical review, Saudi Arabia's electricity generation in 2021 amounted to roughly 357 terawatt-hours, which is estimated to require about 44GW of installed capacity. This is approximately one-half of the kingdom's installed capacity if the Irena report is anything to go by.

Crucially, UK-headquartered data services provider GlobalData, which reports a higher cumulative installed capacity of 94GW for Saudi Arabia, expects the kingdom's overall capacity to increase by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 2% between 2023 and 2035.

An assumed 2.4% CAGR would take Saudi Arabia's installed capacity to about 96GW by 2030, using the Irena installed capacity of 84GW as a baseline. Based on this, plus a further assumption that all oil-fired and aging gas-fired capacity will be retired by 2030, the kingdom could need to procure at least 50GW-60GW by the end of the decade.

However, this figure does not factor in the amount of baseload required to balance its electricity system as more intermittent renewable energy enters the kingdom's grid.

Massive survey

It is significant that Prince Abdulaziz issued the above statement on 24 June, when the ministry announced the start of a project to survey 850,000 square kilometres of land in Saudi Arabia – equivalent to the land areas of the UK and France combined – to determine the most suitable locations for solar and wind projects.

Such a statement leaves open to speculation whether the aspirational target of 100GW-130GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030 includes the capacity planned by gigaproject developer Neom, which aims to be fully powered by renewable energy by 2030, and which has already carried out pre-development work for over 35GW of solar capacity

The question now seems to be whether the kingdom's ongoing gigaprojects, its industrial expansion plans and green hydrogen projects, and its clean energy export ambitions will justify building twice as much capacity as forecast based on historical data and its current needs.

"Justifications are important, otherwise such lofty plans only expose investors to increased risk," the source told MEED. 

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11992190/main3432.jpg
Jennifer Aguinaldo
Related Articles
  • Gulf aviation’s toughest test since the pandemic

    30 June 2026

    Commentary
    Colin Foreman
    Editor

    The conflict that erupted on 28 February has tested Gulf aviation more severely than any event since the Covid-19 pandemic. Yet the sector’s response has revealed both its vulnerability and its underlying resilience in equal measure.

    The scale of the disruption has been severe. Between 28 February and 5 March alone, more than 15,000 flights were cancelled across seven major regional airports. Jet fuel prices are expected to average $152 a barrel this year, almost 70% above 2025 levels, while the International Air Transport Association now forecasts global airline net profit of $23bn in 2026, roughly half its earlier projection. 

    For Gulf hub carriers, whose business models depend on stable long-haul routings and transfer traffic, the financial hit has been unavoidable.

    The sector’s response has revealed both its vulnerability and its underlying resilience

    What is striking, however, is the speed and confidence of the recovery. Etihad is already operating at 90% of pre-war capacity, with fares back at pre-war levels and no plans to discount. Emirates, despite flying at just 58% of its capacity in March, posted a record annual profit and announced a 20-week salary bonus for staff. Riyadh Air pressed ahead with five new destinations in June. Dubai and Riyadh are together preparing to award tens of billions of dollars in airport construction contracts before the year is out.

    The pattern is consistent across tourism, too. Hotel and resort construction contracts in the GCC have already surpassed last year’s full-year total, and sovereign entertainment projects such as the Sphere Abu Dhabi are being formalised mid-conflict. Governments are making clear that their long-term infrastructure ambitions are not contingent on short-term demand.

    The coming months will determine how quickly international airline confidence, and the passengers that follow it, returns to the Gulf. The signals from within the region point firmly in one direction.


    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17492201/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Read the July 2026 MEED Business Review

    30 June 2026

    Download / Subscribe / 14-day trial access

    The events that unfolded from 28 February delivered the Gulf aviation sector its toughest test since the Covid-19 pandemic.

    Missile and drone attacks exposed the fragility of one of the region’s most vital economic engines, triggering unprecedented disruption. In just one week, more than 15,000 flights were cancelled across seven major Gulf airports, leaving over 1.5 million passengers stranded and sending shockwaves through global travel networks.

    While the Gulf's national airlines have largely restored services, many international carriers remain absent, highlighting the lasting impact of the crisis.

    So what does this mean for the future of Gulf aviation? In the July issue of MEED Business Review, MEED editor Colin Foreman examines how the industry responded under extraordinary pressure – and why the crisis revealed not only its vulnerabilities, but also the remarkable resilience that will shape its next chapter.

    July’s market focus is on the Levant, and finds the region’s three markets – Jordan, Lebanon and Syria – recovering at different speeds and from very different starting points. 

    This edition also includes a tourism report as the first signs of recovery begin to emerge in Dubai, and the region presses ahead with tourism projects

    In the latest issue, we speak to EtihadWE about its roadmap for future projects, examine why the Mena projects market continues to show remarkable resilience despite regional conflict, and investigate whether Big Tech is delivering on its data centre ambitions.

    We also explore the multibillion-dollar opportunity emerging from the region’s evolving retirement savings market and discover how Aramco's citizen developers are accelerating digital transformation from within.

    We hope our valued subscribers enjoy the July 2026 issue of MEED Business Review

     

    Must-read sections in the July 2026 issue of MEED Business Review include:

    AGENDA: Gulf aviation ambitions face uncertain future

    > AIRPORTS: Dubai and Riyadh reaffirm airport ambitions

    INDUSTRY REPORT:
    Tourism investment
    Dubai eyes tourism sector recovery
    GCC presses ahead with tourism projects

    > INTERVIEW: EtihadWE prepares roadmap for future projects 

    > PROJECTS MARKET: Mena project momentum holds despite conflict

    > DATA CENTRES: Big Tech falls short on data centre promise

    > SAVINGS: Retirement creates multibillion-dollar opportunity for region

    > LEADERSHIP: Aramco’s citizen developers accelerate digital change

    > INTERVIEW: Samsung E&A’s hydrocarbons business rooted in Mena

    > LEVANT MARKET FOCUS
    > COMMENT: Levant recovers in three speeds
    > GOVERNMENT: Jordan consolidates as deeper reforms lag

    > BANKING: Caution governs Jordanian bank lending
    > POWER & WATER: Record investment drives Jordan’s utilities market
    > ECONOMY: Gulf liquidity outpaces Syria’s financial revival
    > PROJECTS: 
    Momentum builds for Syrian projects
    > OIL & GAS: Activity ramps up in Syria’s oil and gas sector
    > CONSTRUCTION: Prospects improve for Levant construction
    > OIL & GAS: Lebanon taps foreign players to assess resources
    > DATABANK: Jordan faces fresh round of challenges

    MEED COMMENTS: 
    UAE clears the path for recovery

    Water tariffs near their floor
    Petrofac seeks to reclaim lost ground
    The UAE’s eastern pivot

    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf index extends growth streak into 15th month

    > MAY 2026 CONTRACTS: Middle East contract awards

    > ECONOMIC DATA: Data drives regional projects

    > OPINIONThe price of permanent risk

    BUSINESS OUTLOOK: Finance, oil and gas, construction, power and water contracts

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17490904/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • Chinese firm wins Qiddiya Janadriyah cultural district hotels

    30 June 2026

     

    Beijing-headquartered China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) has won a contract to deliver the Janadriyah cultural district at Qiddiya entertainment city on the outskirts of Riyadh.

    The contract was awarded by gigaproject developer Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC).

    The scope covers the construction of six structures, including a heritage building, a gateway hotel, a wadi hotel, a creative hub, a community centre and an open-air market.

    QIC tendered the contract in December last year, as MEED exclusively reported.

    The award is CSCEC’s second major win at Qiddiya in recent weeks.

    Earlier this week, MEED exclusively reported that QIC had awarded CSCEC a contract to build a new transport hub at Qiddiya entertainment city.

    The project is located within the resort core zone of the development.

    MEED understands the scope includes construction of a parking structure for up to 2,000 vehicles; a transport hub comprising a passenger flow system and ticketing and transit-related facilities; retail, food and beverage and hospitality facilities; mechanical, electrical and plumbing (MEP) systems; and soft and hard landscaping works.

    QIC is accelerating plans to develop additional assets at Qiddiya City.

    Last week, MEED reported that QIC had invited contractors to prequalify for a contract to build an indoor sports arena within its Qiddiya entertainment city project.

    The multipurpose arena is designed to International Olympic Committee standards.

    It will be located in District 18, in the Uptown South area of Qiddiya.

    Once completed, the indoor arena will be capable of hosting a wide range of sports, cultural and entertainment events.

    The arena will feature numerous sports courts for basketball, handball, futsal, volleyball, tennis, boxing and gymnastics.

    It will have a seating capacity of 18,000 spectators.

    QIC’s other major projects include an e-sports arena, the National Tennis Centre, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Stadium, a motorsports track, a racecourse, the Dragon Ball and Six Flags theme parks, and Aquarabia.

    QIC opened the Six Flags theme park to the public in December last year.

    The park covers 320,000 square metres and features 28 rides and attractions, including 10 thrill rides and 18 aimed at families and young children.

    The Qiddiya project is a key part of Riyadh’s strategy to boost leisure tourism in the kingdom.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17489285/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Aldar launches Yas Island community park project

    30 June 2026

    Abu Dhabi-based real estate developer Aldar, in partnership with the Abu Dhabi Department of Community Development (DCD), has announced the launch of Yas Community Park on Yas Island.

    A key feature of the park is Nabdh Yas, a community hub developed in collaboration with DCD.

    Once open, Nabdh Yas will serve as a central gathering space and host a range of community-led programmes.

    In a statement, Aldar said: “Nabdh Yas will be delivered on a public-private partnership (PPP) basis, marking the first time private sector investment has been directed towards this type of community infrastructure.

    “With DCD overseeing the hub’s development and long-term management, the initiative reflects Abu Dhabi’s focus on innovative approaches that generate lasting social value and enhance community wellbeing,” the statement added.

    A memorandum of understanding was signed between Aldar and DCD.

    The agreement establishes a framework to expand the Nabdh Community Hub model across Aldar developments in Abu Dhabi, Al-Ain and Al-Dhafra.

    Last month, Aldar announced its Q1 financial results, reporting a 20% year-on-year increase in net profit after tax to AED2.3bn ($626m).

    Aldar Development recorded a 14% year-on-year rise in revenue to $1.7bn, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) increased 23% to $599m.

    UAE revenue backlog rose to $17bn at the end of March from $16.6bn at the end of December, with an average duration of 29 months.

    The group attributed its performance to revenue from its development backlog and steady income from its investment properties.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17489270/main.jpeg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Dubai sets August deadline for Airport Express metro bids

    30 June 2026

     

    Dubai’s Roads & Transport Authority (RTA) has given consultants until 10 August to submit proposals for a contract to study and design the Airport Express Line, which will extend from Dubai International airport (DXB) in the Al-Garhoud area to Al-Maktoum International Airport (DWC) in the Jebel Ali area.

    The previous deadline was 8 July.

    The proposed line will stretch about 55 kilometres and include five stations, providing passengers with facilities such as remote airline check-in, baggage drop-off and security screening.

    The RTA issued the tender in April, with an initial deadline of June, as MEED reported.

    The new line will run from the Red Line metro station at DXB through Al Jaddaf, along Al-Khail Road to a new station at Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC), before continuing to DWC.

    There will be two spur lines. The first will run from the new JVC station to Al-Fardan Exchange metro station at Emirates Golf Club, while the second will branch towards Business Bay, where another station will be built.

    The new line appears to follow a similar route to the Etihad Rail high-speed railway project, which is under construction and due to be completed by 2030.

    The Airport Express Line scheme is the latest metro project to be tendered by the RTA this year. Earlier this month, MEED exclusively reported that the RTA had issued the request for qualification notice for a contract to build the new Gold Line, as part of its expansion of the Dubai Metro network.

    Tendering activity is also ongoing for the Route 2020 extension, which will start from the Expo 2020 metro station and connect to DWC’s West Terminal.

    MEED exclusively reported in April that consultants had submitted bids for the project.

    The extension to the line will run for about 3km and will feature two stations.

    The existing Route 2020 metro link is a 15km-long line that branches off the Red Line at Jebel Ali metro station. The line comprises 11.8km of elevated tracks and 3.2km of tunnels, and has five elevated stations and two underground stations.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17489266/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal