Riyadh’s 130GW renewable target needs justification
25 June 2024
Commentary
Jennifer Aguinaldo
Energy & technology editor
Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, recently confirmed plans to tender 20GW of renewable energy projects annually starting this year, in line with reaching 100GW-130GW of installed capacity by 2030, "depending on electricity demand growth".
It is the highest-level confirmation yet that the kingdom has revised its target of having 58.7GW of renewable energy installed capacity by the end of the decade.
Notably, the upward revision of the renewable energy installed capacity target does not change the original objective for renewable sources to account for 50% of the kingdom's overall electricity production installed capacity by 2030.
This implies a parallel growth in gas-fired capacity due to the need to implement the kingdom's liquid fuel displacement programme and build baseload capacity to deal with the intermittency of renewable sources such as solar and wind, notwithstanding plans to build multi-gigawatts of battery energy storage system capacity.
However, not everyone is convinced that Saudi Arabia needs this much capacity so soon, despite the all-important qualifier "depending on electricity demand growth".
"Where will the power be used, can the grid take it, and where is the population and industry data to justify the demand growth?" asks an executive with an infrastructure investor.
According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena), Saudi Arabia's electricity generation capacity stood at about 84GW in 2022, with renewable energy capacity accounting for 1% of the total.
The same report specifies that oil sources accounted for 49% of the kingdom's total energy supply in 2020.
According to BP's annual statistical review, Saudi Arabia's electricity generation in 2021 amounted to roughly 357 terawatt-hours, which is estimated to require about 44GW of installed capacity. This is approximately one-half of the kingdom's installed capacity if the Irena report is anything to go by.
Crucially, UK-headquartered data services provider GlobalData, which reports a higher cumulative installed capacity of 94GW for Saudi Arabia, expects the kingdom's overall capacity to increase by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 2% between 2023 and 2035.
An assumed 2.4% CAGR would take Saudi Arabia's installed capacity to about 96GW by 2030, using the Irena installed capacity of 84GW as a baseline. Based on this, plus a further assumption that all oil-fired and aging gas-fired capacity will be retired by 2030, the kingdom could need to procure at least 50GW-60GW by the end of the decade.
However, this figure does not factor in the amount of baseload required to balance its electricity system as more intermittent renewable energy enters the kingdom's grid.
Massive survey
It is significant that Prince Abdulaziz issued the above statement on 24 June, when the ministry announced the start of a project to survey 850,000 square kilometres of land in Saudi Arabia – equivalent to the land areas of the UK and France combined – to determine the most suitable locations for solar and wind projects.
Such a statement leaves open to speculation whether the aspirational target of 100GW-130GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030 includes the capacity planned by gigaproject developer Neom, which aims to be fully powered by renewable energy by 2030, and which has already carried out pre-development work for over 35GW of solar capacity.
The question now seems to be whether the kingdom's ongoing gigaprojects, its industrial expansion plans and green hydrogen projects, and its clean energy export ambitions will justify building twice as much capacity as forecast based on historical data and its current needs.
"Justifications are important, otherwise such lofty plans only expose investors to increased risk," the source told MEED.

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Project history
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Contractors involved
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While priorities may have shifted over the past two years, the region’s projects market continues to display resilience and will offer opportunities in 2026 in areas including Saudi Arabia’s gigaprojects progamme, regional rail schemes and other strategic sectors.
Despite much having been written over the past two years about the reprioritisation of Saudi Arabia’s gigaprojects, work is continuing.
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Another focus for the region is rail. Parsons led the Riyadh Metro Transit Consultants joint venture that project managed the first six lines of Riyadh Metro, which opened in late 2024. “Riyadh Metro was a great success for Parsons and our partners, and all the people involved. That was the original gigaproject. At one point, there were 50,000 workers on Riyadh Metro every day,” says Santoni.
The success of this project, and of earlier schemes such as Dubai Metro and Doha Metro, combined with high-level governmental backing, have given the rail sector in the region unprecedented momentum.
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Roads and airports are two other areas of focus for Parsons. The company continues to work as the lead consultant for major road schemes in the UAE, and it secured delivery partner roles in 2025 for the airside and landside infrastructure at Riyadh’s King Salman International airport.
Operations and maintenance
The infrastructure market is not just about building new projects. As the region’s infrastructure ages, operations and maintenance (O&M) has become a central pillar of Parsons’ strategy, Santoni notes.
“The game is not just about building new infrastructure; it’s about making existing infrastructure perform better,” he says.
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The game is not just about building new infrastructure; it’s about making existing infrastructure perform better
“It’s not just physical infrastructure; it’s the management of all that through technology-enabled tools.”
Santoni says this technological “brain” is also being applied to the King Salman Park project, which involves developing the world’s largest urban park and requires a highly complex O&M system to manage it effectively. Automated management of soil and water for hundreds of plant species will remove the need for a vast on-site workforce.
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“We also signed two major contracts last year for confidential defence clients in Saudi Arabia to deliver infrastructure.”
Capacity crunch
As the industry faces a talent shortage, Santoni highlights Parsons’ internal mobility as a competitive advantage. While competitors have struggled with project transitions, Parsons has focused on relocating staff to sustain its growth.
“We did see a lot of people either exiting Saudi Arabia or relocating within,” Santoni says. “We have been very good at relocating people. This is one of our strengths. When projects changed pace, we made a conscious effort to relocate people, give them options and extend them on the job until something else came up. Last year alone, about 350 people were relocated internally within the region. We are still in hiring mode.”
Being a multidisciplinary firm present in several countries gives flexibility. “In Saudi Arabia, most of Parsons’ work has traditionally been project management consultancy (PMC), although we have had for a number of years now a growing design office in Riyadh with an offshoot in Dammam and one in Jeddah.
“We currently have almost 300 people in our design office in Saudi Arabia, which is slightly less than 10% of our workforce in the kingdom. The rest are doing PMC work. In Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, it’s mostly the more traditional model of design and construction supervision work with some PMC,” says Santoni.
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