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Riyadh steps up the Vision 2030 tempo

22 March 2023

 

Riyadh has begun pushing ahead with many of its Vision 2030 initiatives at a faster pace and in a much more tangible manner in the past six months, with the go-ahead given for several infrastructure packages on the kingdom’s flagship Neom project.

More than $13bn-worth of work has been awarded on Neom-linked projects since the start of 2022, including initial piling and tunnel blasting and drilling work for the Line development. More than $7bn has also been awarded in just the past five months, including $4.5bn across community housing schemes.

There has been equally robust activity on the other four official Public Investment Fund (PIF) gigaprojects. Projects worth another $1.8bn have been awarded since 2021 on the Diriyah Gate project, alongside $1.5bn-worth on the Roshn housing programme and $1.1bn each on the Red Sea Project and Qiddiya entertainment city.

Investment uptick

The shift in project tempo has also been matched by a step-up in other Vision 2030 initiatives, including the Shareek investment programme, which is aimed at supporting large Saudi companies in boosting the economic contribution of the kingdom’s private sector.

On 1 March, Saudi Arabia announced $51bn-worth of investments across eight Saudi companies as part of the programme. By 2030, Riyadh wants to increase the private sector GDP contribution to 65 per cent, while increasing the country’s non-oil exports from 16 to 50 per cent.

For external investors too, Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 plans are the top opportunity in the region, according to a recent poll by Egyptian financial services firm EFG Hermes. The survey showed that 34 per cent of respondents viewed Vision 2030 as the most important source of current investment opportunities.

There are meanwhile 23 companies waiting to list on the Saudi stock exchange. Those companies “are essentially on the runway waiting for the appropriate time, and obviously market conditions”, according to Mohammed ElKuwaiz, the chairman of the Capital Market Authority.

Last year was a record-breaking year for Saudi Arabia’s capital markets, with companies raising about $10.7bn (SR40bn) from initial public offerings (IPOs). The country also led regional IPO activity, with 34 out of the 48 GCC IPOs debuting on either the Tadawul or the Nomu.

Looking ahead, the Saudi market regulator is reviewing a further 77 IPO applications. It is also formulating a framework for dual listings, following the example of Americana, the first company to be dually listed in the kingdom and the UAE.

More broadly, the business confidence in the non-oil private sector continues to swell. In February, Saudi Arabia’s non-oil business activity reached its highest level in eight years due to a surge in demand, according to the Riyad Bank–S&P Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers’ Index.

The index – in which a figure above 50 indicates expansion – increased from 58.2 to 59.8 in the fastest rate of increase since March 2015. The new orders component of the index rose to a record high of 68.7, with over 42 per cent of surveyed companies reporting a rise in new orders. The overall higher output also saw further employment and purchasing expansion.

Despite tighter monetary conditions, Naif al-Ghaith, Riyad Bank’s chief economist, noted the robust demand and supply balance spurred by the ongoing projects in the kingdom, which has caused “sharper uplifts in output and new orders for firms, as well as rising demand for labour”.

He added that while “prices have responded to the surge in demand, with the increase in input costs evident especially in the services and construction sectors”, business confidence remains high amid expectations for strong ongoing activity over the next 12 months.

Growth forecast

Despite the positive economic signs, the IMF reduced its 2023 GDP projection for Saudi Arabia to 2.6 per cent in January. This is in response to Opec+ agreements to restrict oil production 1.3 percentage points below the projection of 3.9 per cent growth in its October outlook.

Though non-oil growth remains strong, the reduction in oil output will unavoidably impact Saudi Arabia’s topline GDP. At the same time, the toll on oil revenue should be relatively contained and not unduly affect the kingdom’s capital spending, which is at this point being backed by a diverse pool of both sovereign and private assets.

According to a late February forecast by Riyad Capital, Saudi Arabia’s economy could grow by 3 per cent in 2023, driven principally by a pick-up in the non-oil sector, which it predicts will see a growth rate of 5 per cent this year.

In 2022, Saudi Arabia witnessed its strongest growth in the third quarter, when the GDP rate hit 8.8 per cent, according to the IMF, boosted by a 6.2 per cent growth rate for non-oil activity.

Riyad Capital also expects the weaker oil prices during the first half of 2023 to recover in the second half of the year, with Brent crude expected to end 2023 at a level above $100 a barrel.

MEED's April 2023 special report on Saudi Arabia includes:

> CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction project ramp-up accelerates

> UPSTREAM: Aramco slated to escalate upstream spending

> DOWNSTREAM: Petchems ambitions define Saudi downstream

> POWER: Saudi Arabia reinvigorates power sector

> WATER: Saudi water begins next growth phase

> BANKING: Saudi banks bid to keep ahead of the pack

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John Bambridge

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    Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has published its audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025, the first full set of annual results to follow the board’s approval of the fund’s 2026-30 strategy.

    The results show a sharp improvement in profitability last year even as leverage rose and volatility in its listed equity holdings widened. The performance helps explain the strategic shift towards capital discipline and focus on private sector partnerships set out in April.

    In April, PIF’s board, chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Al-Saud, approved a new five-year strategy structured around three portfolios, the Vision Portfolio, the Strategic Portfolio and the Financial Portfolio, and organised around six domestic ecosystems: tourism, travel and entertainment; urban development and liveability; advanced manufacturing and innovation; industrials and logistics; clean energy, water and renewables infrastructure; and Neom as a standalone ecosystem.

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    The strategy followed a period of reprioritisation across PIF’s gigaproject portfolio and set out a renewed emphasis on private capital, with PIF stating it would “further enable the role of the private sector as an effective partner for sustainable economic development”.

    PIF’s consolidated profit for 2025 rose to SR65.2bn ($17.4bn) in 2025, up 152% from SR25.8bn in 2024. The increase was driven by operating profit more than doubling, to SR78bn from SR34.7bn, as revenue growth outpaced cost of revenue and general and administrative expenses moderated relative to the prior year. Profit attributable to the owner of the fund rose to SR46.4bn, up from just SR1bn in 2024, a swing that accounts for most of the year-on-year improvement.

    Total revenue, comprising SR312bn of operating revenue and SR137.9bn of income from investment activities, rose 8.8% to SR449.9bn. Core operating revenue alone was up 9.9%, from SR284bn in 2024.

    Segment mix                                                     

    The segment breakdown shows where that growth came from, and it lines up closely with the six ecosystems named in the 2026-30 strategy. Banking and financial services remained the largest single revenue line at SR85.3bn, followed by telecommunications at SR76.8bn ($20.5bn), which was down slightly on 2024. Mining revenue rose 19.3% to SR38.8bn, consistent with the strategy’s focus on industrials and logistics, while revenue from electronic gaming and related services held broadly flat at SR15.6bn, an area PIF governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan specifically cited as a sector for strategic investment alongside artificial intelligence and renewable energy. Agricultural and livestock revenue nearly tripled, to SR7.6bn from SR2.5bn, and revenue from events operations rose to SR7.6bn from SR6bn, both pointing to the diversification into domestic ecosystems the strategy describes. Real estate operations revenue and revenue from advanced electronics and aerospace both declined slightly year-on-year.

    Total assets grew 5.1% to SR4.54tn from SR4.32tn, continuing the expansion PIF has reported since 2015, when the strategy document put assets under management at $150bn, against more than $900bn today. The two figures are not directly comparable, since the IFRS consolidated balance sheet captures the full assets of consolidated subsidiaries such as the fund’s banking, telecommunications and mining operations, while PIF’s publicly cited assets-under-management figure uses a different valuation methodology, but both point to the same order of scale.

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    The scale of PIF’s investment activity in the run-up to 2025 is set out in the April strategy announcement rather than the financial statements themselves. Between 2021 and 2025, PIF says it invested more than $199bn in new projects in Saudi Arabia, contributed $243bn to real non-oil GDP and spent more than $157bn with the local private sector, alongside growing assets under management six-fold and delivering an annualised total shareholder return of more than 7% since 2017. Read against the 2025 results, the rise in mining, gaming, agricultural and events revenue is an early indication that this domestic ecosystem investment is beginning to show up in operating performance, even as the wider balance sheet shows the cost of that expansion in higher borrowing and greater sensitivity to listed equity markets.

    The results reinforce a theme demonstrated by PIF’s ongoing award of construction contracts for Expo 2030, the 2034 Fifa World Cup and other gigaprojects in the kingdom. Growth is increasingly funded through a combination of retained earnings, debt and, with the new strategy, private co-investment, rather than balance-sheet expansion alone. The explicit retention of Neom as a named ecosystem in the 2026-30 strategy, despite the cancellation of several Trojena contracts and the loss of the Asian Winter Games over the past year, suggests PIF intends to continue funding the project, but within a more disciplined framework most likely centred on industrial development around the Port of Neom, which is also known as Oxagon.

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    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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