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Riyadh reins in spending

24 May 2024

 

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On the surface, it feels like business as usual in Saudi Arabia as new projects continue to be launched.

On 8 May, designs for another futuristic project at Neom’s Gulf of Aqaba were released with slick computer-generated imagery. Known as Jaumur (pictured), it includes the development of a mixed-use community featuring 1,200 residential units and two hotels offering 350 rooms. The most eye-catching part of the project is at the marina, which will have a 1.5-kilometre aerofoil that will rise above the yacht berths.

Beneath the surface, a consensus is emerging that the kingdom’s projects market is in the midst of a recalibration as spending is reined in.

The challenge for Riyadh over the next few years will be balancing the delivery of its ambitions with the reality of its financial capabilities.

The first public sign that things were changing came in December 2023, when Finance Minister Mohammed Al Jadaan told reporters at the launch of the 2024 budget that the delivery of some of the projects included in the Saudi Vision 2030 plan may be delayed to avoid pressure on the economy.

Tightening the purse strings

The ministry-level decision is trickling down as individual development companies are not getting their full budgets approved. “Our firm is working on almost all of the major projects in Saudi Arabia in some capacity,” says an international consultant. “The feedback we are getting is that budget spending for 2024 has been reduced by about 30% on average.”

Many of these delivery companies are subsidiaries of sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund (PIF), which has taken a leading role in transforming the kingdom’s economy over the past eight years with development schemes including its five official gigaprojects, Neom, Roshn, Red Sea Global (RSG), Qiddiya and Diriyah.

The reports of budget cuts have coincided with a drop in contract awards. According to MEED’s Gigaprojects Tracker, there has been a sharp decline in the value of contracts awarded by the five official gigaprojects this year. 

In April, they awarded $166m of work, down from $271m in March and $509m in February. The total in January was $5.56bn, largely due to the $4.7bn contract awarded to the local Webuild for the construction of dams at the Trojena mountain resort in Neom.

The reports of budget cuts have coincided with a drop in contract awards

Funding options

The budget cuts are just part of the message, says the consultant. The delivery companies are being told to find external investment to deliver their projects, and there are already signs of this happening. The clearest came in late April, when Neom announced a $2.7bn revolving credit facility from nine local banks to cater to the project’s short-term financing requirements.

In a statement, Neom CEO Nadhmi Nasser highlighted the project’s drive to find new sources of funding. “As Neom continues to gather pace, this new credit facility, backed by Saudi Arabia’s leading financial institutions, is a natural fit within our wider strategy for funding. We continue to explore a variety of funding sources as we deliver transformational infrastructure assets while supporting the wider Vision 2030 programme,” he said. 

In a research note following the deal, London-based Capital Economics said: “While this does take some of the onus away from the government and Public Investment Fund, it is increasingly using resources that could be used more productively in the private non-oil sector.”

Capital Economics also noted that the facility adds to the growing share of commercial banks’ lending to the public sector. Since 2015, this share has increased from 7% to 22% in March 2024.

Another solution for development companies is deploying public-private partnerships (PPPs) to deliver infrastructure and utilities. This is attractive because PPPs reduce the initial capital expenditure required for a project. 

RSG has already pursued this route for The Red Sea Project and Amaala; other development companies are exploring the PPP avenue for their projects.

Real estate investment is another option. There is an expectation that Riyadh will introduce a foreign ownership law that could turbocharge the market as a similar law did for Dubai in the early 2000s. 

There are already examples of real estate investment deals being done, including the National Housing Company with Spain’s Urbas Group for housing in Riyadh, RSG with Kingdom Holding Company for hotels, and King Salman with a real estate development fund.

PPP offers budget and efficiency routes

Prioritising projects

As projects in the kingdom are developed differently, the challenge for the construction industry will be identifying which of the many schemes that aim to transform the Saudi economy are a top priority.

Much will depend on the success of the investment drive. The most likely projects to go ahead are those linked to global events with immovable deadlines. Experience across the region over the past decade has shown that even if construction elsewhere slowed down, construction for Expo 2020 in Dubai and the 2022 Fifa World Cup in Qatar continued regardless. 

“For Saudi Arabia, there are three major events: the Asian Winter Games in 2029, Expo 2030 and World Cup 2034. They will be the obvious priorities,” says the international consultant.

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Colin Foreman

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    Covering 24 million square feet in the Muwaileh district, the masterplan for Aljada includes residential districts, as well as retail, hospitality, entertainment, sporting, educational and healthcare components, and a business park.

    The UAE’s heightened real estate activity is in line with UK data analyst GlobalData’s forecast that the construction industry in the country will register annual growth of 3.9% in 2025-27, supported by investments in infrastructure, renewable energy, oil and gas, housing, industrial and tourism projects. 

    The residential construction sector is expected to record an annual average growth rate of 2.7% in 2025-28, supported by private investments in the residential housing sector, along with government initiatives to meet rising housing demand.

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