meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Riyadh prioritises stability over headline growth

28 September 2023

MEED's October 2023 special report on Saudi Arabia also includes: 

> POLITICS: Saudi Arabia looks both east and west
> GIGAPROJECTS: Gigaproject activity enters full swing
> TRANSPORT: Infrastructure projects support Riyadh’s logistics ambitions
> UPSTREAM: Aramco focuses on upstream capacity building
> DOWNSTREAM: Saudi chemical and downstream projects in motion
> POWER: Riyadh rides power projects surge
> WATER: Saudi water projects momentum holds steady
> BANKS: Saudi banks track more modest growth path
> SPORT: Saudi Arabia’s football vision goes global
> JEDDAH TOWER: Jeddah developer restarts world’s tallest tower

 

As 2023 heads towards its final quarter, Saudi Arabia has elected to continue to pursue further voluntary Opec+ oil production cuts, supporting oil prices at the expense of its own immediate GDP growth.

On 5 September, Riyadh confirmed its intention to roll over its additional 1 million barrels a day (b/d) of production cuts until the end of the fourth quarter. Analysts had largely expected Saudi Arabia to extend the cuts with a view to further tightening oil markets, and the price of Brent crude broke the $90-a-barrel mark and reached its highest point in 10 months shortly after the cut extension was announced.

Despite the rise in prices, Saudi Arabia’s ongoing oil production restraint will ensure no improvement is likely to be made on its modest mid-year real GDP growth forecasts.

In July, the Washington-based IMF lowered its projection for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth to 1.9 per cent, down from an earlier forecast of 3.1 per cent in April – and compared to an 8.7 per cent growth figure for 2022, which saw oil reach highs of up to $124 a barrel and the kingdom’s first fiscal surplus in nearly a decade.

The country also entered a technical recession in the second quarter after its economy contracted for its second successive quarter in a row – shrinking by 0.1 per cent after a contraction of 1.4 per cent in the first quarter, according to estimates from the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat). This resulted in a slowing of year-on-year growth to 3.8 per cent in the first quarter and 1.1 per cent in the second.

There is now a risk that the Saudi economy could see an overall contraction for 2023. The further three months of production cuts will translate into a 9 per cent overall fall in production in 2023, the largest drop in 15 years, according to Khalij Economics.

Non-oil growth

Despite the disappointing headline GDP growth figures and projections, however, Saudi Arabia is maintaining a robust non-oil growth rate.

The non-oil economy is estimated to have grown 5.5 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2023, according to Gastat, while oil sector growth declined by 4.2 per cent. Private sector growth for the quarter has been estimated to be even higher, at about 6.1 per cent.

At the same time, the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia purchasing managers’ index (PMI) settled to an 11-month low of 56.6 in August 2023, down from 57.7 in July, reflecting a moderation of non-oil activity. It was the second stepdown in two months for the index from a multi-year high for new business in June.

The headline PMI figures remain deeply positive, however, with the index well above the 50 mark that delineates growth from contraction. 

The index also saw the rate of job creation pick up further in August amid sustained new business growth. This reflects a continuation of a job creation trend in the country that has seen unemployment fall from 9 per cent during the Covid-19 pandemic to 4.8 per cent at the end of 2022. Meanwhile, youth unemployment has been halved over the past two years to 16.8 per cent in 2022.

On the flipside, input cost inflation accelerated to its fastest rate in over a year due to a sharper uptick in purchase prices, though selling prices partially compensated for this by also rising. Business confidence nevertheless slid to the lowest level since June 2020 over concerns of rising market competition.

Project performance

The kingdom’s non-oil sector should continue to be well supported by Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure and project spending plans. These schemes remain affordable thanks to the kingdom’s broad financial reserves and buffers.

As of mid-September, Saudi Arabia’s project spending for 2023 had already all but matched that of 2022, with contract awards in the kingdom approaching the $57bn mark – last year’s figure – but with three and a half months still left to run. 

This is the third straight year with project awards of around $55bn or more. This is a 75 per cent increase in spending compared to the period from 2016 to 2020, which witnessed an average of only slightly more than $30bn in awards each year.

There is a further $50bn-worth of project work in bid evaluation and expected to be awarded this year. Even accommodating the possibility of delays for much of this work, the award of even a modest portion of this would make 2023 by far the strongest year on record for project awards in Saudi Arabia.

This heightened level of projects activity is as much due to above-average spending on oil and gas infrastructure, amid a spree of investment by Saudi Aramco in the optimisation of its core assets, as it is to the kingdom’s gigaproject programme. 

Oil and gas project awards alone have exceeded $21bn in 2023 to date and could readily be on track to beat the previous award high of $24.7bn seen in 2019.

It is the construction and transport sector that has the furthest to go to outdo itself in the last quarter of 2023. 

Awards in the sector to date have hit $24.6bn, whereas awards in 2022 reached $34.7bn – so there is a $10.1bn gap to bridge to beat last year’s performance. This is not unrealistic given the $14.2bn-worth of projects in the sector under bid evaluation, and especially given the backing of the Public Investment Fund for the kingdom’s gigaprojects and other Vision 2030 schemes.

Overall, the ongoing upsurge in projects activity should continue to prove supportive of the non-oil economy, regardless of either the vicissitudes of the oil price or Saudi Arabia’s moderation of its own oil production.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11153290/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Combined Group signs Kuwait upstream contract

    4 November 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Kuwait-headquartered Combined Group Contracting Company has signed a contract to repair and revamp production facilities in West Kuwait, according to a company statement.

    State-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) awarded the contract, valued at KD9.7m ($31.4m).

    The contract has a five-year term.

    KOC issued the invitation to bid on 5 October 2025. The initial bid deadline was 4 January 2026, and a pre-tender meeting was scheduled for 4 November 2025.

    The contract award to Combined Group was approved on 13 September 2026.

    Kuwait’s oil and gas sector is currently in the midst of a major crisis, as disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have dramatically reduced exported crude oil volumes.

    The disruptions are the result of a regional war that started on 28 February when the US and Israel attacked Iran.

    The disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are also creating significant challenges for oil and gas construction projects, which normally import equipment and materials through the waterway.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21120792/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Aramco Q3 profit rises 9% despite attacks on facilities

    3 November 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Aramco reported a 9% year-on-year increase in adjusted net income to $31.2bn in the third quarter of 2026, supported by stronger financial performance across its businesses, particularly downstream operations, and despite persistent attacks by the Yemen-based Houthi rebels on its facilities across the kingdom.

    The company’s revenue and other income from sales reached $140.492bn in Q3 2026, up from $111.509bn in the same period last year. 

    Downstream adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (ebit) increased by 234% year-on-year, reflecting stronger refining margins.

    Cash flow from operating activities increased to $38.7bn in Q3, compared to $36.1bn a year earlier, while free cash flow rose to $28.2bn from $23.6bn over the same period.

    The company maintained a gearing ratio of 5.5% at the end of the first nine months of the year, compared to 6.2% at the end of the first half of the year.

    Return on average capital employed in Q3 remained the same as in the previous quarter at 22.1%.

    Aramco’s capital expenditure in Q3 2026 declined to $10.52bn from $12.55bn in the same period last year, while capex in the first nine months of the year stood at $35.78bn.

    Commenting on the Q3 financial results, Aramco’s president and CEO, Amin H Nasser, said: “Geopolitical uncertainty and attacks on key energy facilities continued to amplify the global energy supply crisis in the third quarter of 2026, with serious implications for global energy security.

    “Despite challenges, the unwavering dedication of our workforce, our operational excellence, the flexibility of our system and the strength of a supply network built over decades enabled us to continue delivering reliably to our customers through this extraordinary period.

    “We continue to explore additional overseas storage capacity and alternative export routes to further strengthen our global supply network, and our robust operational and financial performance during this volatile period demonstrates the value of our resilience.

    “Backed by our strong balance sheet, we remain focused on the disciplined execution of priority projects and on leveraging advanced technologies to enhance performance and unlock new opportunities. This is how we will continue to meet the world’s evolving energy needs and deliver value for our shareholders and customers.”

    ALSO READ: Sabic swings back to profit in Q3 with $224m net income

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21121169/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • UAE monitors desalination plants after oil spill

    3 November 2026

    State utility Etihad Water & Electricity (EtihadWE) says it is monitoring seawater quality at desalination plant intake points following an oil spill off the UAE's northern coast.

    In a statement, the utility said it is continuing to "implement proactive measures to safeguard the water production system" following the spread of an oil slick towards coastal areas in the emirates of Umm Al-Quwain, Ras Al-Khaimah, Ajman and Sharjah.

    The spill involved the tanker Gem No. 2, which was struck by a projectile in UAE territorial waters on 9 October. The resulting oil pollution has raised concerns over potential contamination of seawater used by desalination plants along the northern coast.

    EtihadWE said its measures include continuous monitoring of seawater quality at plant intake points, regular testing of produced and distributed water, and verification of compliance with approved standards before water enters the distribution network.

    The utility added that the precautionary measures will not affect the continuity of water supplies to consumers in the Northern Emirates.

    In an earlier update on 30 October, the Climate Change & Environment Ministry said the oil slick was concentrated off the coast of Umm Al-Quwain, extending partially towards coastal areas in Ras Al-Khaimah, Ajman and Sharjah.

    The ministry said the concentration of pollution had declined significantly and that the leak had been stopped at source. However, surveying, monitoring and clean-up operations are continuing in affected coastal areas.

    The Energy & Infrastructure Ministry said specialised technical teams are continuing work to address technical issues with the tanker, including repairing damaged sections, restoring operational systems and assessing the integrity of its structure.

    The proximity of the oil slick to the Naqa'a desalination plant in Umm Al-Quwain has drawn particular attention. According to media reports, the slick approached to within approximately 2 kilometres of the facility.

    Naqa'a has a production capacity of 150 million imperial gallons a day, equivalent to approximately 682,000 cubic metres a day. The plant supplies water to the Northern Emirates and has been operational since 2022.

    It is owned by Naqa'a Desalination Plant, a special-purpose vehicle established by Mubadala, Acwa and the former Federal Electricity & Water Authority, now known as EtihadWE.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21104534/main3427.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Oman signs 1GW battery storage agreement

    3 November 2026

    Oman's Nama Holding, a subsidiary of Oman Investment Authority (OIA), has signed a framework agreement with China's State Grid International Development to develop battery energy storage systems (bess) with a targeted capacity of 1GW.

    The agreement covers two battery storage systems, each with a capacity of 500MW, at Duqm Industrial Station and Al-Subaikhi (Ibri Solar 3) Station.

    It is understood that both systems will operate at 400kV and connect to Oman's national electricity transmission grid.

    The deal is part of a package of economic and investment agreements signed by OIA with Chinese institutions and companies during the Oman-China conference on 2 November. OIA put the combined value of the bess projects at approximately RO384.5m ($1bn).

    The agreement comes as Oman advances plans to expand its renewable energy capacity and strengthen the electricity transmission network.

    Nama Power & Water Procurement Company is also procuring a separate 950MW standalone bess programme comprising five facilities in the sultanate, as MEED exclusively reported.

    The wider package of agreements, signed during Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq's state visit to China, covers sectors including renewable energy, mining, logistics, digital transformation and space technology.

    In the wind energy sector, Oman's O-Green and Shanghai Electric Wind Power signed a strategic partnership to establish a joint research and development centre and wind turbine testing facility at the Mawarid turbine factory in Duqm.

    The partnership will focus on adapting turbine technologies to Gulf climate conditions, supporting local manufacturing and developing green ammonia projects in Oman.

    The partnership is valued at RO3.85m-RO7.69m ($10m-$20m). It also identifies potential future contracts exceeding $1bn, alongside green ammonia projects and initial investment commitments in Oman exceeding $200m.

    In solar, OIA signed a preliminary term sheet with Chinese firms PCG Power and Hoymiles for a partnership valued at RO38.45m ($100m).

    The partnership aims to develop solar energy projects in Oman and establish a solar inverter manufacturing facility serving markets in the Middle East and North Africa.

    It is also intended to support the localisation of solar-related industries, expand domestic production and develop export markets.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21102638/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Consultants bid for Roshn’s north Riyadh scheme

    3 November 2026

     

    Saudi gigaproject developer Roshn Group has received proposals from lead design consultants for its planned flagship development in north Riyadh.

    Consultants submitted proposals on 1 November for detailed design, tender documentation and construction documents for the project’s first plot.

    The planned development covers 13.7 square kilometres and will be a residential-led mixed-use scheme containing retail, office, hospitality, education and civic facilities.

    The consultancy scope for plot one includes infrastructure, utilities, public-realm works and the site adaptation of Roshn’s residential prototypes. It has been divided into two work packages.

    The first package covers phases A, B and E, which cover about 7.8 million square metres (sq m) and will include 17,000 units.

    The second package covers phases C and D, covering about 4.7 million sq m and with more than 15,000 units.

    The site is bordered by the Expo 2030 site, King Abdulaziz Park, the Sports Innovation Lab Zone and National Housing Company’s Khozam development.

    Transport connectivity is a key element of the masterplan. Two metro stations are planned, including a station at the interchange between the existing Line 4 and planned Line 7, and a dedicated Line 7 station. The development could also be served by the planned Qiddiya high-speed rail link and a potential diversion of King Salman Road.

    The scheme will add to Roshn’s existing development pipeline in Riyadh, which includes the multi-phase Sedra community. The developer is expanding its focus from single-family housing to larger mixed-use districts under its Roshn 3.0 strategy.

    Last month, Roshn signed a preliminary agreement with TMG Saudi, the local subsidiary of Egypt’s Talaat Moustafa Group, to establish a joint venture to explore a separate mixed-use project in Riyadh.

    TMG Saudi will hold a 51% stake in the proposed joint venture and Roshn will hold the remaining 49%. The companies said they will undertake detailed masterplanning and prepare a business case for the project, which preliminary studies indicate could include more than 55,000 residential units.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21101503/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal