meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Riyadh prioritises stability over headline growth

28 September 2023

MEED's October 2023 special report on Saudi Arabia also includes: 

> POLITICS: Saudi Arabia looks both east and west
> GIGAPROJECTS: Gigaproject activity enters full swing
> TRANSPORT: Infrastructure projects support Riyadh’s logistics ambitions
> UPSTREAM: Aramco focuses on upstream capacity building
> DOWNSTREAM: Saudi chemical and downstream projects in motion
> POWER: Riyadh rides power projects surge
> WATER: Saudi water projects momentum holds steady
> BANKS: Saudi banks track more modest growth path
> SPORT: Saudi Arabia’s football vision goes global
> JEDDAH TOWER: Jeddah developer restarts world’s tallest tower

 

As 2023 heads towards its final quarter, Saudi Arabia has elected to continue to pursue further voluntary Opec+ oil production cuts, supporting oil prices at the expense of its own immediate GDP growth.

On 5 September, Riyadh confirmed its intention to roll over its additional 1 million barrels a day (b/d) of production cuts until the end of the fourth quarter. Analysts had largely expected Saudi Arabia to extend the cuts with a view to further tightening oil markets, and the price of Brent crude broke the $90-a-barrel mark and reached its highest point in 10 months shortly after the cut extension was announced.

Despite the rise in prices, Saudi Arabia’s ongoing oil production restraint will ensure no improvement is likely to be made on its modest mid-year real GDP growth forecasts.

In July, the Washington-based IMF lowered its projection for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth to 1.9 per cent, down from an earlier forecast of 3.1 per cent in April – and compared to an 8.7 per cent growth figure for 2022, which saw oil reach highs of up to $124 a barrel and the kingdom’s first fiscal surplus in nearly a decade.

The country also entered a technical recession in the second quarter after its economy contracted for its second successive quarter in a row – shrinking by 0.1 per cent after a contraction of 1.4 per cent in the first quarter, according to estimates from the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat). This resulted in a slowing of year-on-year growth to 3.8 per cent in the first quarter and 1.1 per cent in the second.

There is now a risk that the Saudi economy could see an overall contraction for 2023. The further three months of production cuts will translate into a 9 per cent overall fall in production in 2023, the largest drop in 15 years, according to Khalij Economics.

Non-oil growth

Despite the disappointing headline GDP growth figures and projections, however, Saudi Arabia is maintaining a robust non-oil growth rate.

The non-oil economy is estimated to have grown 5.5 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2023, according to Gastat, while oil sector growth declined by 4.2 per cent. Private sector growth for the quarter has been estimated to be even higher, at about 6.1 per cent.

At the same time, the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia purchasing managers’ index (PMI) settled to an 11-month low of 56.6 in August 2023, down from 57.7 in July, reflecting a moderation of non-oil activity. It was the second stepdown in two months for the index from a multi-year high for new business in June.

The headline PMI figures remain deeply positive, however, with the index well above the 50 mark that delineates growth from contraction. 

The index also saw the rate of job creation pick up further in August amid sustained new business growth. This reflects a continuation of a job creation trend in the country that has seen unemployment fall from 9 per cent during the Covid-19 pandemic to 4.8 per cent at the end of 2022. Meanwhile, youth unemployment has been halved over the past two years to 16.8 per cent in 2022.

On the flipside, input cost inflation accelerated to its fastest rate in over a year due to a sharper uptick in purchase prices, though selling prices partially compensated for this by also rising. Business confidence nevertheless slid to the lowest level since June 2020 over concerns of rising market competition.

Project performance

The kingdom’s non-oil sector should continue to be well supported by Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure and project spending plans. These schemes remain affordable thanks to the kingdom’s broad financial reserves and buffers.

As of mid-September, Saudi Arabia’s project spending for 2023 had already all but matched that of 2022, with contract awards in the kingdom approaching the $57bn mark – last year’s figure – but with three and a half months still left to run. 

This is the third straight year with project awards of around $55bn or more. This is a 75 per cent increase in spending compared to the period from 2016 to 2020, which witnessed an average of only slightly more than $30bn in awards each year.

There is a further $50bn-worth of project work in bid evaluation and expected to be awarded this year. Even accommodating the possibility of delays for much of this work, the award of even a modest portion of this would make 2023 by far the strongest year on record for project awards in Saudi Arabia.

This heightened level of projects activity is as much due to above-average spending on oil and gas infrastructure, amid a spree of investment by Saudi Aramco in the optimisation of its core assets, as it is to the kingdom’s gigaproject programme. 

Oil and gas project awards alone have exceeded $21bn in 2023 to date and could readily be on track to beat the previous award high of $24.7bn seen in 2019.

It is the construction and transport sector that has the furthest to go to outdo itself in the last quarter of 2023. 

Awards in the sector to date have hit $24.6bn, whereas awards in 2022 reached $34.7bn – so there is a $10.1bn gap to bridge to beat last year’s performance. This is not unrealistic given the $14.2bn-worth of projects in the sector under bid evaluation, and especially given the backing of the Public Investment Fund for the kingdom’s gigaprojects and other Vision 2030 schemes.

Overall, the ongoing upsurge in projects activity should continue to prove supportive of the non-oil economy, regardless of either the vicissitudes of the oil price or Saudi Arabia’s moderation of its own oil production.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11153290/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Binghatti launches new Mercedes-Benz-branded residential project

    17 December 2025

    Dubai-based real estate firm Binghatti Developers has announced the launch of a new Mercedes-Benz-branded multi-tower residential development in Dubai.

    The developer said the total cost of the project is about AED30bn ($8bn).

    The project, named Mercedes-Benz Places Dubai, will span an area of about 10 million square feet.

    No further details about the features of the project or its construction timelines were disclosed.

    The development will be located within Binghatti’s first masterplanned community in the Meydan area of Dubai.

    In May, Binghatti announced that it had acquired freehold land in Meydan for what would be the company’s first large-scale, masterplanned residential community in Dubai.

    This is Binghatti’s second Mercedes-Benz-branded development in Dubai.

    In January, Binghatti unveiled the Mercedes-Benz Places by Binghatti project in Downtown Dubai.

    The 65-storey Mercedes-Benz Places by Binghatti is expected to blend the brand’s heritage with architectural design.

    At 341 metres, the building will house 150 residences, ranging from two- to four-bedroom units, including five penthouses.

    In its statement, Binghatti says it has a current portfolio valued at about AED80bn. This includes over 38,000 units under development across 38 projects in areas such as Downtown, Business Bay, Jumeirah Village Circle and Meydan, as well as flagship branded residences developed in collaboration with luxury partners Bugatti, Mercedes-Benz and Jacob & Co.

    READ THE DECEMBER 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Prospects widen as Middle East rail projects are delivered; India’s L&T storms up MEED’s EPC contractor ranking; Manama balances growth with fiscal challenges

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the December 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > BAHRAIN MARKET FOCUS: Manama pursues reform amid strain
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15267943/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Tabreed finishes the year on a high

    17 December 2025

     

    Tabreed is consolidating its position as a leading regional district cooling provider following a series of major transactions and new concessions that will reshape its portfolio in the UAE and beyond.

    In 2025, the company completed the AED3.87bn ($1bn) acquisition of PAL Cooling Holding (PCH) in consortium with CVC DIF, and finalised the long-term district cooling concession for Palm Jebel Ali in Dubai as part of a joint venture (JV) with Dubai Holding Investments.

    The PCH deal will eventually add about 600,000 refrigeration tons (RT) of capacity across eight long-term concessions in Abu Dhabi, raising Tabreed’s total connected capacity by 13% to 1.55 million RT. The AED1.5bn Palm Jebel Ali JV will ultimately deliver a further 250,000RT.

    Speaking to MEED, Tabreed CEO Khalid Al-Marzooqi outlined how the company is integrating the newly acquired brownfield assets, developing greenfield projects and advancing a new generation of sustainable cooling solutions, including geothermal energy for data centres.

    Tabreed’s recent milestones span both greenfield and brownfield investments, each requiring a different approach, says Al-Marzooqi. 

    Greenfield projects, such as Palm Jebel Ali, remain Tabreed’s preferred route for new capacity, he adds. “The beauty of a greenfield is that you can optimise it the way you want. You build it as you want.” 

    For new plants, Tabreed designs the civil structure to accommodate long-term capacity, while phasing in mechanical equipment in line with demand. By contrast, the acquisition of PCH is a large-scale brownfield integration, bringing in a portfolio of existing and future plants and networks, mainly on Abu Dhabi’s main island and Reem Island.

    The immediate focus is on integration and driving network synergies. “That’s the beauty of district cooling. If you achieve the synergies, the benefits literally double up and triple up as well,” Al-Marzooqi says.

    By interconnecting plants, Tabreed can avoid building for peak capacity at each individual site and instead leverage shared spare capacity across the network.

    Growth strategy

    Acquiring a competitor in Abu Dhabi is part of a strategy to sustain growth in a sector where many contracts follow build-own-operate-transfer or similarly time-bound models.

    Organic growth via new concessions and inorganic growth via acquisitions are both seen as key to maintaining and expanding the asset base.

    Tabreed’s portfolio remains weighted towards the UAE, with the home market accounting for the bulk of its business. 

    Beyond the UAE, Tabreed has built a regional presence, with a partially owned business in Saudi Arabia, where it sees significant growth potential as district cooling is integrated into gigaprojects and major urban developments; a wholly owned operation in Bahrain; and a majority stake in Tabreed Oman, a market that Al-Marzooqi says is expanding well.

    Despite the energy and lifecycle cost benefits of district cooling, Al-Marzooqi says tariff subsidies on conventional, building-level cooling are a barrier to adoption in parts of the UAE.

    “The killer for us is subsidy,” he says, explaining that artificially low tariffs for individual customers make it harder for district cooling to compete on price in Abu Dhabi compared to Dubai.

    He says that policy support and regulatory mandates are needed, particularly as existing buildings approach the end of life for their standalone cooling systems. At that point, compulsory connection to district cooling could lock in significant energy savings and emissions reductions at city scale.

    Raising Abu Dhabi’s district cooling penetration from about 15% towards Dubai’s estimated 30% remains a key concern and strategic objective.

    In Abu Dhabi, Tabreed has developed … the Middle East’s first geothermal-powered district cooling plant

    Geothermal breakthrough

    Alongside portfolio growth, Tabreed is investing in new technologies to decarbonise cooling, with a focus on large campuses, major developments and, increasingly, data centres.

    At Masdar City in Abu Dhabi, Tabreed has developed what Al-Marzooqi describes as the Middle East’s first geothermal-powered district cooling plant. 

    “We have started off by building the region’s first geothermal plant, to prove the concept of using geothermal energy to provide cooling,” he says. 

    The pilot plant is already achieving efficiency levels in the range of 0.5-0.6 kilowatts per ton (kW/ton) of cooling, better than Tabreed’s typical district cooling benchmark of about 0.85kW/ton. Conventional, standalone cooling systems generally consume about twice as much energy per ton.

    “This is proof that if you really want to pursue a sustainable cooling solution for data centres in this area, this is the one,” he says.

    Data centres are emerging as a priority growth segment for Tabreed. The facilities have high, continuous cooling loads and increasingly stringent decarbonisation requirements, making them a natural fit with both district cooling and geothermal systems.

    Al-Marzooqi says geothermal cooling is a “godsend solution” for data centres, combining 24/7 availability with the potential for near-zero operational emissions.

    For hyperscale and colocation data centre operators facing mounting pressure to reduce their carbon footprint, geothermal district cooling could offer a differentiated, long-term solution in the Gulf region, particularly where grid power is still largely fossil-fuel based.

    Tabreed’s technology agenda is not limited to low-carbon generation. The utility is in the second phase of connecting its plants to a centralised digital control centre, enabling remote operation and optimisation.

    The long-term goal is for the majority of plants to be unmanned, with operations centrally monitored and controlled. This integrated view of the network will enable the application of artificial intelligence and advanced analytics to fine-tune performance, optimise energy use and predict maintenance requirements. 

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15266676/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Kuwait Oil Company seeks higher project budgets

    17 December 2025

     

    Contractors in Kuwait expect to have answers by the end of the year on whether budgets for several key upstream projects in the oil and gas sector will be increased, according to industry sources.

    State-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) is seeking approvals for at least three upstream projects, for which bids came in significantly over budget.

    The first project, with a low bid of $2.47bn, involves the development of two facilities: Separation Gathering Centre 1 (SGC-1) and Water Injection Plant 1 (WIP-1).

    The second project, with a low bid of $2.48bn, focuses on developing SGC‑3 and WIP‑3.

    The third project, which involves developing effluent water disposal plants for injector wells, had a low bid of $1.3bn.

    For KOC to increase the budgets for all three projects, approvals will be required from Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) and the country’s Ministry of Finance.

    Already cancelled

    One Kuwaiti oil project tender that received bids significantly above budget has already been cancelled.

    On 7 October, MEED reported that the tender for the SGC-2 oil project – focused on the installation of a separation gathering centre – was cancelled by Kuwait’s Central Agency for Public Tenders.

    Earlier this year, UK-based Petrofac had submitted a bid more than double the project’s proposed budget.

    Petrofac’s bid was KD422.45m ($1.37bn), while the provisional budget stood at KD207m ($670.2m).

    This contract is expected to be retendered, but there is significant uncertainty about when a new invitation to bid will be issued and how the scope may change.

    Earlier in December, MEED reported that KOC was discussing whether to retender the contract using a different contract model.

    Initially, the project was tendered using the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract model.

    Discussions are ongoing on whether it will be relaunched under a build-own-operate (BOO) contract model.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15263996/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Morocco awards $185m Guercif-Nador road contracts

    17 December 2025

     

    Morocco’s Ministry of Equipment, Transport, Logistics & Water has awarded three contracts totalling MD1.7bn ($185m) for building three lots of the 40-kilometre (km) section two of the Guercif to Nador highway between Saka and Driouch.

    The contracts were awarded to local firms.

    Casablanca-based Groupe Mojazine won a $64m contract for lot one, which covers the construction of 14km of highway.

    The other two contracts covering construction works on lots two and three were awarded to the local firm Bioui Travaux.

    The contract value for lot two is over $56m and covers the 12km highway section. The lot three contract is worth about $69m and covers 40km of highway construction.

    The 104km Guercif to Nador highway is being implemented in three sections. Prequalification for section two from Saka to Driouch was completed in June, as MEED reported.

    The estimated $700m project, partly funded by the African Development Bank, is part of the kingdom’s plans to upgrade its public infrastructure in preparation for co-hosting the 2030 Fifa World Cup alongside Portugal and Spain. The programme includes the expansion of over 1,000km of highways.

    In May, Societe Nationale des Autoroutes du Maroc awarded MD5bn ($540m) of contracts for nine packages covering construction works on the Rabat-Casablanca continental expressway.

    Morocco’s construction and infrastructure sector is gearing up for billions of dollars in projects as the North African nation continues to award contracts for building infrastructure for the 2030 Fifa World Cup.

    Morocco has made a strong head start in ensuring that the necessary infrastructure is ready for the tournament.

    According to data from regional project tracker MEED Projects, 2024 was the best year in the past decade for construction and transport contract awards in Morocco, with contracts worth over $3.6bn signed with local construction firms and international companies from South Korea, China, France and Spain.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15266606/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Egypt plans $5.7bn oil and gas exploration campaign

    17 December 2025

    Egypt plans to drill 480 exploratory wells, with total investment estimated at $5.7bn, over the next five years, according to Karim Badawi, the country’s minister of petroleum and mineral resources.

    Speaking at a conference in Cairo, Badawi said that Egypt’s oil and gas sector was stabilising after a period of decline.

    He said that his ministry was targeting an increase in gas production for the first time in four years.

    The government is also aiming for self-sufficiency in crude oil production within five years, he said.

    Egypt is aiming to boost crude production by introducing investment incentive packages and utilising new production technologies.

    Badawi highlighted specific capital commitments from international partners to develop oil and gas resources over the next five years. These included Italian company Eni’s commitment to invest $8bn, as well as London-headquartered BP’s plan to invest $5bn.

    He also highlighted Arcius Energy’s plan to invest $3.7bn. Arcius Energy is a joint venture of BP and Adnoc’s XRG.

    The $5.7bn exploration programme includes 101 wells scheduled for drilling in 2026.

    Badawi said that seismic survey operations would expand to cover 100,000 square kilometres in the Western Desert and 95,000 square kilometres in the Eastern Mediterranean using Ocean Bottom Node (OBN) technology.

    Renewable energy strategy

    Addressing the national energy strategy, Badawi said the government aims to increase the share of renewable energy in electricity generation to 42% by 2030.

    He said this would enable natural gas to be redirected to value-added industries, such as petrochemicals and fertilisers, to boost exports.

    On the transition to green energy, the minister cited plans to reduce reliance on traditional fuels and open investment in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), green ammonia and bioethanol.

    Efficiency measures in the sector have already reduced carbon emissions by 1.4 million tonnes, he said.

    Recently, Egypt announced a $200m deal with Qatar to produce aviation fuel from used cooking oil.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15264077/main0508.jpg
    Wil Crisp