meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Riyadh prioritises stability over headline growth

28 September 2023

MEED's October 2023 special report on Saudi Arabia also includes: 

> POLITICS: Saudi Arabia looks both east and west
> GIGAPROJECTS: Gigaproject activity enters full swing
> TRANSPORT: Infrastructure projects support Riyadh’s logistics ambitions
> UPSTREAM: Aramco focuses on upstream capacity building
> DOWNSTREAM: Saudi chemical and downstream projects in motion
> POWER: Riyadh rides power projects surge
> WATER: Saudi water projects momentum holds steady
> BANKS: Saudi banks track more modest growth path
> SPORT: Saudi Arabia’s football vision goes global
> JEDDAH TOWER: Jeddah developer restarts world’s tallest tower

 

As 2023 heads towards its final quarter, Saudi Arabia has elected to continue to pursue further voluntary Opec+ oil production cuts, supporting oil prices at the expense of its own immediate GDP growth.

On 5 September, Riyadh confirmed its intention to roll over its additional 1 million barrels a day (b/d) of production cuts until the end of the fourth quarter. Analysts had largely expected Saudi Arabia to extend the cuts with a view to further tightening oil markets, and the price of Brent crude broke the $90-a-barrel mark and reached its highest point in 10 months shortly after the cut extension was announced.

Despite the rise in prices, Saudi Arabia’s ongoing oil production restraint will ensure no improvement is likely to be made on its modest mid-year real GDP growth forecasts.

In July, the Washington-based IMF lowered its projection for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth to 1.9 per cent, down from an earlier forecast of 3.1 per cent in April – and compared to an 8.7 per cent growth figure for 2022, which saw oil reach highs of up to $124 a barrel and the kingdom’s first fiscal surplus in nearly a decade.

The country also entered a technical recession in the second quarter after its economy contracted for its second successive quarter in a row – shrinking by 0.1 per cent after a contraction of 1.4 per cent in the first quarter, according to estimates from the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat). This resulted in a slowing of year-on-year growth to 3.8 per cent in the first quarter and 1.1 per cent in the second.

There is now a risk that the Saudi economy could see an overall contraction for 2023. The further three months of production cuts will translate into a 9 per cent overall fall in production in 2023, the largest drop in 15 years, according to Khalij Economics.

Non-oil growth

Despite the disappointing headline GDP growth figures and projections, however, Saudi Arabia is maintaining a robust non-oil growth rate.

The non-oil economy is estimated to have grown 5.5 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2023, according to Gastat, while oil sector growth declined by 4.2 per cent. Private sector growth for the quarter has been estimated to be even higher, at about 6.1 per cent.

At the same time, the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia purchasing managers’ index (PMI) settled to an 11-month low of 56.6 in August 2023, down from 57.7 in July, reflecting a moderation of non-oil activity. It was the second stepdown in two months for the index from a multi-year high for new business in June.

The headline PMI figures remain deeply positive, however, with the index well above the 50 mark that delineates growth from contraction. 

The index also saw the rate of job creation pick up further in August amid sustained new business growth. This reflects a continuation of a job creation trend in the country that has seen unemployment fall from 9 per cent during the Covid-19 pandemic to 4.8 per cent at the end of 2022. Meanwhile, youth unemployment has been halved over the past two years to 16.8 per cent in 2022.

On the flipside, input cost inflation accelerated to its fastest rate in over a year due to a sharper uptick in purchase prices, though selling prices partially compensated for this by also rising. Business confidence nevertheless slid to the lowest level since June 2020 over concerns of rising market competition.

Project performance

The kingdom’s non-oil sector should continue to be well supported by Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure and project spending plans. These schemes remain affordable thanks to the kingdom’s broad financial reserves and buffers.

As of mid-September, Saudi Arabia’s project spending for 2023 had already all but matched that of 2022, with contract awards in the kingdom approaching the $57bn mark – last year’s figure – but with three and a half months still left to run. 

This is the third straight year with project awards of around $55bn or more. This is a 75 per cent increase in spending compared to the period from 2016 to 2020, which witnessed an average of only slightly more than $30bn in awards each year.

There is a further $50bn-worth of project work in bid evaluation and expected to be awarded this year. Even accommodating the possibility of delays for much of this work, the award of even a modest portion of this would make 2023 by far the strongest year on record for project awards in Saudi Arabia.

This heightened level of projects activity is as much due to above-average spending on oil and gas infrastructure, amid a spree of investment by Saudi Aramco in the optimisation of its core assets, as it is to the kingdom’s gigaproject programme. 

Oil and gas project awards alone have exceeded $21bn in 2023 to date and could readily be on track to beat the previous award high of $24.7bn seen in 2019.

It is the construction and transport sector that has the furthest to go to outdo itself in the last quarter of 2023. 

Awards in the sector to date have hit $24.6bn, whereas awards in 2022 reached $34.7bn – so there is a $10.1bn gap to bridge to beat last year’s performance. This is not unrealistic given the $14.2bn-worth of projects in the sector under bid evaluation, and especially given the backing of the Public Investment Fund for the kingdom’s gigaprojects and other Vision 2030 schemes.

Overall, the ongoing upsurge in projects activity should continue to prove supportive of the non-oil economy, regardless of either the vicissitudes of the oil price or Saudi Arabia’s moderation of its own oil production.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11153290/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Contractors submit revised bids for Dukhan field facilities upgrade

    6 October 2026

     

    Contractors have submitted revised proposals to QatarEnergy for a key tender to upgrade facilities at the Dukhan oil field in Qatar, about 80 kilometres west of Doha.

    Following the submission of the initial round of bids for the project on 9 August, QatarEnergy requested revised proposals from contractors, which they submitted by 27 September, sources told MEED.

    The following local contractors, among others, are understood to be bidding for the DPFU Phase 1B (Part 2) tender, according to information obtained by MEED Projects:

    • Doha Petroleum Construction Company (Dopet)
    • Galfar Al-Misnad Engineering & Contracting
    • Qatar Engineering & Construction Company (Q-con)

    QatarEnergy originally stipulated a bond validity of 150 days (until 23 December) and a bid validity of 120 days (until 23 November) for the project.

    The engineering, procurement, installation and commissioning scope covers upgrades to 56 oil manifolds, 108 gas-lift manifold slots, chemical injection systems and key pumping facilities, along with associated piping, instrumentation, control, electrical and civil works.

    The scope includes the demolition of obsolete equipment, degassing station enhancements, and full testing and handover. It also encompasses additional capacity enhancement works under Part 3, mainly the installation of new oil export and produced-water transfer pumps, along with supporting facility modifications.

    The project involves complex interfaces and shutdown-critical activities, requiring expertise in live-plant integration.

    QatarEnergy issued the tender for the DPFU Phase 1B (Part 2) project on 8 June and initially set a bid submission deadline of 26 July, later extending it to 9 August.

    Dukhan, Qatar’s first and only onshore oil field, was discovered in 1938, with oil production starting in 1939-40. The country currently produces about 1.8 million barrels a day (b/d) of crude, with the Dukhan field accounting for about 350,000 b/d.

    The Dukhan oil field covers about 80km by 8km and consists of four reservoirs: Khatiyah, Fahahil, Jaleha and Diyab. The first three are oil reservoirs. The more recently developed Diyab reservoir contains non-associated gas and is estimated to hold around 2 billion barrels of crude oil reserves. Diyab lies on Dukhan’s southern flank.

    ALSO READ: QatarEnergy selects contractors for offshore oil field expansion
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20306273/main5440.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Dubai issues PMC tender for four stormwater projects

    6 October 2026

     

    Dubai Municipality has invited consultants to bid for a contract to provide construction supervision services for four stormwater projects.

    The bid submission deadline is 29 October.

    All four projects are part of the municipality’s Tasreef programme, intended to increase Dubai’s rainwater drainage capacity by 700% by 2033 and provide capacity for the emirate’s needs for the next 100 years.

    The tender for TF-06-S1 Supervision of Stormwater Drainage System Projects – Package 4 was issued on 6 October.

    The consultancy covers the following projects:

    • TF-06-C1: Construction of a stormwater pond connecting Al-Maktoum Airport and Dubai South
    • TF-06-C2: Construction of a stormwater drainage system connecting Al-Maktoum Airport and Dubai South
    • TF-07-C1: Construction of a stormwater drainage system on Sheikh Zayed Bin Hamdan Road connecting developers
    • TF-24-C1: Connecting developers’ areas to the stormwater networks in Dubailand 

    In documents seen by MEED, the municipality said it will require a dedicated supervision team for each project.

    The consultancy will cover construction supervision, including the deployment of resident engineers, civil engineers, inspectors, quantity surveyors, land surveyors and planning engineers. Mechanical engineers will also be required, along with health and safety personnel and NOC engineers, depending on the project. 

    TF-07-C1 is the same strategic stormwater drainage project that Dubai Municipality recently tendered for construction, with contractors preparing to submit bids on 22 October.

    The project covers more than 100 million square metres between Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Road and Emirates Road, and from Expo Road to Dubailand.

    It will provide stormwater infrastructure and service connections for more than 20 private developers and Al-Yalayis 5, as well as supporting major roads in the Jebel Ali area. The construction scope includes a major gravity drainage system with pipeline diameters of up to 3,000mm.

    TF-24-C1 is one of three water infrastructure tenders issued by the municipality in August, as reported by MEED. The project will connect developers’ areas in Dubailand to the stormwater network. It includes 18 kilometres (km) of stormwater drainage pipelines with diameters of up to 1,800mm and 3.5km of gravity sewer pipelines with diameters of up to 1,000mm.

    Bidding for the engineering, procurement and construction contract was recently extended to 1 October, with Nael Construction & Contracting and Al-Nasr Contracting Company among those expected to make an offer for the project.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20305174/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Aramco nears contract award for Jafurah fifth expansion phase

    6 October 2026

     

    Saudi Aramco is believed to be close to awarding the main contract for a major project representing the fifth expansion phase of the Jafurah unconventional gas development programme in Saudi Arabia.

    The main scope of work for the fifth expansion phase of Jafurah involves the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) of three gas compression plants at the gas basin in the kingdom’s Eastern Province. Each plant will be capable of processing up to 200 million cubic feet a day (cf/d).

    Indian contractor Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (L&TEH) is the favourite to win the main EPC contract, according to sources.

    “Negotiations between Aramco and L&T have reached an advanced stage and the [Indian] contractor is now in pole position to clinch the deal,” one source told MEED.

    MEED previously reported that China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Company (CPECC) was in a favourable position to secure the main EPC contract for the Jafurah fifth expansion phase, based on Aramco’s initial evaluation of proposals. The situation remained subject to change as Aramco negotiated with the project’s other bidders, MEED reported in August.

    Aramco set 19 July as the final deadline for proposals, and contractors submitted their bids by that date, MEED previously reported.

    ALSO READ: Aramco receives interest for major gas processing plant

    The Saudi energy giant is understood to have issued the main EPC tender for the project in the first quarter of this year.

    Aramco issued a solicitation of interest for the Jafurah fifth expansion phase in mid-November, with contractors submitting responses by 30 November, MEED previously reported.

    UK-headquartered Wood Group has carried out the front-end engineering and design for the project.

    The Jafurah basin is the largest liquid-rich shale gas play in the Middle East, spanning about 17,000 square kilometres. The reserve is estimated to contain 229 trillion cubic feet of gas and 75 billion stock-tank barrels of condensate.

    Aramco recently brought the greenfield Jafurah gas processing plant online, with a production capacity of 450 million cf/d, marking the commissioning of the first phase of its $100bn capital expenditure programme to produce gas from the unconventional resource base.

    The company previously stated that it expected to start gas production at Jafurah in 2025, with the intention of progressively ramping up to 2 billion cf/d of sales gas, 420 million cf/d of ethane and 630,000 barrels a day (b/d) of high-value liquids by 2030.

    Aramco has said that its unconventional gas programme, at peak production, is expected to generate electricity equivalent to displacing 500,000 b/d of oil.

    Jafurah gas development phases

    Alongside nearing an EPC contract award decision for the fifth expansion phase at Jafurah, MEED also recently reported that Aramco had completed the solicitation of interest process with contractors for the unconventional gas programme’s sixth phase.

    The main scope of work on the Jafurah sixth expansion phase is similar to the fifth phase, and involves the EPC of three gas compression plants at the giant gas reserve, each with an output capacity of 200 million cf/d.

    Aramco also kicked off EPC works on the Jafurah fourth expansion phase in the second quarter of the year.

    MEED reported in April that Aramco had selected Mumbai-headquartered L&TEH as the main contractor for the fourth phase, which sources estimate could be valued at about $1.5bn.

    The main scope of work on Jafurah’s fourth expansion phase involves the EPC of two gas compression trains at the gas basin. Each plant will be able to process up to 200 million cf/d.

    EPC work on the third phase of the Jafurah unconventional gas development programme is also advancing.

    In July 2024, Aramco issued a non-binding letter of intent to a consortium of Tecnicas Reunidas and Sinopec Group for the EPC contract for phase three. The contract is estimated at $2.24bn.

    The objective of the third expansion phase is similar to that of the fourth phase. The main scope of work involves the EPC of three gas compression plants, each with a capacity of 200 million cf/d.

    The third phase’s scope of work also includes building a 230kV substation to power the new gas compression plants, and installing other utilities units, piping systems and safety equipment.

    The selection of contractors for the third expansion phase came within weeks of Aramco officially awarding EPC contracts for the second phase, which aims to raise the field’s processing potential to up to 2 billion cf/d of raw gas.

    Aramco awarded 16 contracts, worth a combined total of about $12.4bn, for the second expansion phase on 30 June 2024.

    The EPC scope of work for that project involves the construction of gas compression facilities and associated pipelines, and the expansion of the Jafurah gas plant, including the construction of gas processing trains, utilities, sulphur and export facilities, Aramco said in a statement.

    The main EPC packages of the Jafurah second expansion phase project, their estimated values and the selected contractors are:

    • Package 1 – gas processing plant and main process units – $2.9bn: Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India)
    • Package 2 – utilities and offsites – $2.4bn: Hyundai Engineering (South Korea)
    • Package 3 – gas compression units – $1bn: Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon
    • Riyas natural gas liquids (NGL) package 1 – NGL fractionation trains – $1bn: Tecnicas Reunidas / Refining & Chemical Engineering Group (part of China’s Sinopec Group)
    • Riyas NGL package 2 – utilities, storage and export facilities – $2.2bn: Tecnicas Reunidas/Refining & Chemical Engineering Group
    • Riyas NGL package 6 – site preparation works – $107m: Mofarreh Alharbi & Partners (Saudi Arabia)
    • Riyas NGL package 9 – temporary construction facilities – $80m: Mofarreh Alharbi & Partners

    Aramco kickstarted EPC works on the first phase of the programme in November 2021 by awarding $10bn-worth of subsurface and EPC contracts.

    In February 2020, Aramco received a capital expenditure grant of $110bn from the Saudi government for the long-term phased development of the Jafurah unconventional gas resource base.

    The Jafurah programme is central to Aramco’s goal of increasing gas production capacity. The target has recently been raised to 80%, with 2021 as the baseline, up from 60%, to meet rising domestic and global demand. The company expects life-cycle investment in Jafurah to exceed $100bn.

    Aramco completed an $11bn lease-and-leaseback deal in late October 2025 for gas processing facilities at the Jafurah unconventional gas reserve with a consortium led by funds managed by Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), part of US asset manager BlackRock.

    Under the transaction, a newly formed subsidiary, Jafurah Midstream Gas Company (JMGC), will lease development and usage rights to the Jafurah field gas processing plant and the Riyas natural gas liquids fractionation facility.

    After 20 years, JMGC will lease the assets back to Aramco. JMGC will collect a tariff payable by Aramco in exchange for granting Aramco the exclusive right to receive, process and treat raw gas from the Jafurah resource base.

    Aramco will hold a 51% majority stake in JMGC, while the GIP-led consortium will hold the remaining 49%. Investors participating in the GIP-led consortium include Hassana Investment Company, the Arab Energy Fund and Aberdeen Investcorp Infrastructure Partners, as well as other institutional investors from North and Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20299556/main3638.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Joint venture wins Riyadh data centre construction deal

    6 October 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Egyptian contractor Hassan Allam Construction and India’s Sterling & Wilson have won an estimated SR750m ($200m) contract to build the first phase of a data centre project in Riyadh.

    The first phase will have an IT load capacity of 16.2MW, with overall capacity reaching 50MW in the second phase.

    The scope includes civil, architectural, and mechanical, electrical and plumbing (MEP) works, infrastructure works and other associated works.

    Upon completion of both phases, the facility will comprise one 5MW standard-density hall and four high-density halls, each rated at 11.2MW.

    Saudi Arabian artificial intelligence (AI) firm Humain and Center3 – the digital infrastructure subsidiary of local telecom company STC Group – are jointly developing the project.

    The first phase is scheduled to take 16 months.

    In December last year, Center3 and Humain partnered to develop and operate AI-focused data centres across Saudi Arabia, with a planned capacity of up to 1GW.

    The partners said the first phase will deliver up to 250MW of capacity, designed for high-density AI workloads and large-scale model training.

    The venture combines Center3’s data centre operations and regional connectivity with Humain’s full-stack AI capabilities, with the latter responsible for aligning facility design with advanced compute requirements and future architectures.

    The companies said the programme will deliver purpose-built facilities engineered for high power density, low latency and resilient operations, to support large language models and other mission-critical AI applications.

    They added that the initial schemes will serve as a template for subsequent rollouts as capacity scales towards the 1GW target.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20298893/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Chevron signs Egypt oil and gas exploration deal

    6 October 2026

    State-owned Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (Egas) and US-headquartered Chevron have signed an agreement related to oil and gas exploration in Egypt’s offshore Lotus concession.

    Under the agreement, Chevron will invest at least $88m in exploration activities within the concession, according to a statement from Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources.

    Chevron has agreed to drill two deepwater exploration wells and to reprocess 3D seismic data for the concession.

    Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources said the agreement was part of the ministry’s “efforts to expand exploration activities and unlock new areas for petroleum investments”.

    It also said that the deal reflected Chevron’s “commitment to pumping new investments into exploration activities in Egypt”.

    In August, Egypt’s Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Karim Badawi, presented the ministry’s five-year production strategy, which aims to double Egypt’s oil and condensate output while strengthening the country’s position as a regional hub for petroleum product trading and gas liquefaction.

    Egypt has been working towards this goal by forging a range of new deals with international oil companies.

    Chevron has offshore exploration and development rights for several Egyptian concessions, including Nargis, North El-Dabaa, North West Atoll, North Simian and North Cleopatra, where it partners with Shell.

    In April, Egypt’s cabinet approved a draft version of the Lotus concession agreement between Egas and Chevron during a meeting chaired by Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20298172/main.jpeg
    Wil Crisp