meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Riyadh prioritises stability over headline growth

28 September 2023

MEED's October 2023 special report on Saudi Arabia also includes: 

> POLITICS: Saudi Arabia looks both east and west
> GIGAPROJECTS: Gigaproject activity enters full swing
> TRANSPORT: Infrastructure projects support Riyadh’s logistics ambitions
> UPSTREAM: Aramco focuses on upstream capacity building
> DOWNSTREAM: Saudi chemical and downstream projects in motion
> POWER: Riyadh rides power projects surge
> WATER: Saudi water projects momentum holds steady
> BANKS: Saudi banks track more modest growth path
> SPORT: Saudi Arabia’s football vision goes global
> JEDDAH TOWER: Jeddah developer restarts world’s tallest tower

 

As 2023 heads towards its final quarter, Saudi Arabia has elected to continue to pursue further voluntary Opec+ oil production cuts, supporting oil prices at the expense of its own immediate GDP growth.

On 5 September, Riyadh confirmed its intention to roll over its additional 1 million barrels a day (b/d) of production cuts until the end of the fourth quarter. Analysts had largely expected Saudi Arabia to extend the cuts with a view to further tightening oil markets, and the price of Brent crude broke the $90-a-barrel mark and reached its highest point in 10 months shortly after the cut extension was announced.

Despite the rise in prices, Saudi Arabia’s ongoing oil production restraint will ensure no improvement is likely to be made on its modest mid-year real GDP growth forecasts.

In July, the Washington-based IMF lowered its projection for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth to 1.9 per cent, down from an earlier forecast of 3.1 per cent in April – and compared to an 8.7 per cent growth figure for 2022, which saw oil reach highs of up to $124 a barrel and the kingdom’s first fiscal surplus in nearly a decade.

The country also entered a technical recession in the second quarter after its economy contracted for its second successive quarter in a row – shrinking by 0.1 per cent after a contraction of 1.4 per cent in the first quarter, according to estimates from the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat). This resulted in a slowing of year-on-year growth to 3.8 per cent in the first quarter and 1.1 per cent in the second.

There is now a risk that the Saudi economy could see an overall contraction for 2023. The further three months of production cuts will translate into a 9 per cent overall fall in production in 2023, the largest drop in 15 years, according to Khalij Economics.

Non-oil growth

Despite the disappointing headline GDP growth figures and projections, however, Saudi Arabia is maintaining a robust non-oil growth rate.

The non-oil economy is estimated to have grown 5.5 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2023, according to Gastat, while oil sector growth declined by 4.2 per cent. Private sector growth for the quarter has been estimated to be even higher, at about 6.1 per cent.

At the same time, the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia purchasing managers’ index (PMI) settled to an 11-month low of 56.6 in August 2023, down from 57.7 in July, reflecting a moderation of non-oil activity. It was the second stepdown in two months for the index from a multi-year high for new business in June.

The headline PMI figures remain deeply positive, however, with the index well above the 50 mark that delineates growth from contraction. 

The index also saw the rate of job creation pick up further in August amid sustained new business growth. This reflects a continuation of a job creation trend in the country that has seen unemployment fall from 9 per cent during the Covid-19 pandemic to 4.8 per cent at the end of 2022. Meanwhile, youth unemployment has been halved over the past two years to 16.8 per cent in 2022.

On the flipside, input cost inflation accelerated to its fastest rate in over a year due to a sharper uptick in purchase prices, though selling prices partially compensated for this by also rising. Business confidence nevertheless slid to the lowest level since June 2020 over concerns of rising market competition.

Project performance

The kingdom’s non-oil sector should continue to be well supported by Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure and project spending plans. These schemes remain affordable thanks to the kingdom’s broad financial reserves and buffers.

As of mid-September, Saudi Arabia’s project spending for 2023 had already all but matched that of 2022, with contract awards in the kingdom approaching the $57bn mark – last year’s figure – but with three and a half months still left to run. 

This is the third straight year with project awards of around $55bn or more. This is a 75 per cent increase in spending compared to the period from 2016 to 2020, which witnessed an average of only slightly more than $30bn in awards each year.

There is a further $50bn-worth of project work in bid evaluation and expected to be awarded this year. Even accommodating the possibility of delays for much of this work, the award of even a modest portion of this would make 2023 by far the strongest year on record for project awards in Saudi Arabia.

This heightened level of projects activity is as much due to above-average spending on oil and gas infrastructure, amid a spree of investment by Saudi Aramco in the optimisation of its core assets, as it is to the kingdom’s gigaproject programme. 

Oil and gas project awards alone have exceeded $21bn in 2023 to date and could readily be on track to beat the previous award high of $24.7bn seen in 2019.

It is the construction and transport sector that has the furthest to go to outdo itself in the last quarter of 2023. 

Awards in the sector to date have hit $24.6bn, whereas awards in 2022 reached $34.7bn – so there is a $10.1bn gap to bridge to beat last year’s performance. This is not unrealistic given the $14.2bn-worth of projects in the sector under bid evaluation, and especially given the backing of the Public Investment Fund for the kingdom’s gigaprojects and other Vision 2030 schemes.

Overall, the ongoing upsurge in projects activity should continue to prove supportive of the non-oil economy, regardless of either the vicissitudes of the oil price or Saudi Arabia’s moderation of its own oil production.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11153290/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Qiddiya plans $7bn theme park hub near Paris

    25 August 2026

    Saudi Arabia’s Qiddiya Investment Company plans to develop a mixed-use leisure destination worth about €6bn ($7bn) at Cergy-Pontoise in the Ile-de-France region, in one of the largest Saudi investments in French tourism infrastructure to date.

    The plan was set out in a joint statement issued on 24 August at the close of a state visit to France by Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud. France and Saudi Arabia signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) covering the project during the two-day visit.

    The destination will bring together entertainment, leisure, hospitality, culture and sport, according to the joint statement. Current plans envisage up to three major entertainment anchors, hotels and complementary leisure experiences, with the €6bn figure covering the full development lifecycle.

    One of the three parks is expected to be manga-themed, according to the French presidency. The themes of the other two have not been disclosed. The parks will be built and opened in stages, with construction expected to take several years. No opening date has been given.

    The parks are expected to create about 22,000 direct jobs, according to the French presidency, compared with about 20,000 at Disneyland Paris. Cergy-Pontoise lies about 30 kilometres northwest of Paris.

    Qiddiya is a subsidiary of the Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund. Its flagship project is a giga-scale entertainment, sports and cultural city on the outskirts of Riyadh, one of several gigaprojects under Vision 2030.

    The theme park plan was among a wider set of agreements reached during the visit. Both sides welcomed the announcement of 21 agreements and MoUs at a French-Saudi investment roundtable, spanning energy, industry, financial services, transport and logistics, health, culture, tourism and artificial intelligence. Bilateral trade reached about $11.8bn in 2025.

    It is not the first time Saudi capital has backed a French theme park. Kingdom Holding Company was a longstanding investor in the operator of Disneyland Paris, first taking a stake in 1994 and participating in successive recapitalisations before Walt Disney Company moved to near-full ownership in 2017.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18987274/main.png
    Colin Foreman
  • Masdar shelves Abu Dhabi green hydrogen project

    25 August 2026

     

    Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) has decided to cancel a planned project to build a green hydrogen plant in Abu Dhabi that would have supplied up to 100MW of renewable hydrogen to local steelmaker Emsteel for green steel production.

    After contractors submitted bids for the project last year, Masdar asked bidders in the first quarter of this year to extend the validity of their proposals until the end of August to allow “more time to study and evaluate bids”, according to one source.

    However, Masdar issued a notification to all bidders on 1 August stating that it had decided to cancel the project, sources told MEED.

    Contractors that submitted bids for the Masdar green hydrogen project included:

    • Envision (China)
    • Larsen & Toubro (India)
    • PowerChina (China)
    • Samsung E&A (South Korea)
    • Sinopec (China)

    Masdar did not respond to MEED’s request for comment on the information.

    In its current steelmaking process, Emsteel uses hydrogen produced by steam reforming of natural gas as a reducing agent to extract iron from iron ore. The core objective of Masdar’s planned project was to install a 100MW electrolyser at Emsteel’s main manufacturing hub in Musaffah, Abu Dhabi, to supply green hydrogen for future clean steel production.

    Masdar initiated work on the project in 2024 by awarding a front-end engineering and design (feed) contract to locally based NT Energies, a joint venture of Abu Dhabi’s NMDC Energy and France-based Technip Energies.

    Masdar then sought proposals last year for engineering, procurement, construction, demolition (if needed for brownfield activities), pre-commissioning, commissioning, start-up, and two years of operations and maintenance (extendable up to 20 years) at the planned facility.

    Contractors submitted bids by the end of the year, according to sources.

    The project involved green hydrogen production using alkaline water electrolysis, with a total installed electrolyser capacity of 100MW.

    The scope of work involved building electrolyser stacks and modules, hydrogen separation and compression units, associated utilities and storage systems, and electrical, instrumentation and control systems.

    It also included tie-ins to pre-defined interface points, including (but not limited to):

    • a grid power supply connection to the MOSF substation in Musaffah that exists within the Emsteel complex and is operated by Taqa Transmission
    • a water supply connection to a nearby Taqa Distribution network

    Supporting infrastructure included a substation, a motor control centre, and ancillary plant buildings and facilities.

    Masdar’s planned 100MW electrolyser project at the Emsteel facility would have represented a step up from a previous pilot project by the two Abu Dhabi-owned companies.

    The partners inaugurated a pilot green hydrogen plant at Emsteel’s manufacturing complex in Musaffah in October 2024. It incorporates a 2.1MW electrolyser and is designed to support the production of up to 5,000 tonnes of green steel a year.

    This made Emsteel the only steelmaker in the Middle East to use green hydrogen to produce green steel on a pilot basis.

    “Sustainability is central to Emsteel’s innovation, competitiveness and long-term growth. Today, approximately 89% of our steel business electricity consumption comes from clean sources, and our steel carbon emissions intensity is around 40% lower than the World Steel Association global average,” Michael Rion, chief commercial officer of Emirates Steel, part of Emsteel Group, told MEED in a recent interview.

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18911651/main0611.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Oman invites bids for Musandam renewables study

    25 August 2026

    Oman’s Nama Power & Water Procurement Company (PWP) has issued a request for proposals (RFP) for techno-economic consultancy services to assess the feasibility of renewable energy options in Musandam Governorate.

    The study will examine solar photovoltaic (PV), wind and hybrid renewable energy configurations. It will also assess battery energy storage systems (bess) and other renewable energy and energy storage technologies.

    The consultant will be required to determine which technologies are technically and economically justified for the governorate.

    The bid submission deadline is 24 September.

    The Musandam power system is served primarily by the 123MW Musandam independent power plant (IPP), which began operating in 2017. The governorate has historically relied on small diesel-fired units, but has been seeking to move away from diesel-fired power generation for several years.

    Nama PWP has previously said it was exploring renewable energy options in Musandam to meet future additional capacity requirements.

    Its latest seven-year statement, released in March, forecasts peak electricity demand in Musandam to rise from 91MW in 2024 to 130MW in 2031, an average annual increase of 5%. Average demand is forecast to rise from 52MW to 73MW over the same period.

    The plan says demand growth is being driven by distribution-level load and projects aimed at boosting tourism, economic and commercial activity. 

    Separately, the utility recently invited bids for financial and commercial consultancy services covering three 1GW solar IPPs targeted for commercial operation by the second quarter of 2030.

    The bid submissions deadline is 10 September.

    The three projects covered by the financial and commercial consultancy tender are understood to also be part of the 4GW programme, for which a technical advisory tender was issued on 15 July.

    Bidding for this tender closes on 26 August.

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18983679/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • US launches sanctions campaign against Iran

    25 August 2026

    The US has launched a sweeping sanctions campaign against Iran and the entities that trade with it, imposing measures on almost 60 individuals, companies and vessels while expanding the reach of secondary sanctions across five sectors of the Iranian economy.

    The campaign, named Operation Economic Outcast, was announced on 24 August by US treasury secretary Scott Bessent, who described it as an economic D-Day for Iran. He said Washington’s objective was to sever every economic lifeline sustaining the Iranian regime.

    The treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac) issued five sectoral sanctions determinations under Executive Order 13902, covering digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping. The determinations allow Ofac to sanction any person operating in those sectors, regardless of location. Washington said Iran uses cryptocurrency for sanctions evasion, seeks advanced technology for its weapons programmes, uses gold to stabilise the rial, and relies on commercial aviation and shipping networks to move fighters, weapons and oil revenue.

    The measures build on earlier determinations targeting Iran’s financial, petroleum and petrochemical sectors.

    Ofac also sanctioned close to 60 entities, individuals and vessels across multiple jurisdictions, including UAE-based entities, over alleged involvement in nuclear and missile procurement, cyber operations and oil revenue networks. The designations named a network of brokers, companies and shadow fleet vessels operating across the UAE, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Switzerland and other regions to transport Iranian oil and channel revenue to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

    Among those designated were shipping brokers and bunkering firms based in the UAE that Washington said facilitated Iranian oil shipments and provided services to sanctioned vessels. The treasury also identified several shadow fleet tankers as blocked property, saying they had moved millions of barrels of Iranian crude and petroleum products, mainly to China.

    Separately, the treasury targeted a procurement network spanning the Middle East and East Asia that it said supported Iran’s acquisition of proliferation-sensitive equipment, along with a cyber group directed by Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence & Security.

    Bessent said Washington was pressing governments to shut down Iran-related activity within defined timelines, warning that entities facilitating money laundering or sanctions evasion for Iran risked being cut off from the US financial system. He declined to name specific countries.

    The campaign follows the UAE’s own move against Tehran. On 19 August, the UAE suspended all trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions with Iran with immediate effect, citing regional escalation. The UAE has historically been one of Iran’s most significant trading partners, with much of the relationship built on re-export trade routed through Dubai.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18983152/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Kuwait tenders $3.3bn gas processing facility

    25 August 2026

     

    State-owned Kuwait Gulf Oil Company (KGOC) has issued the tender for the development of an onshore gas plant next to the Al-Zour refinery, according to industry sources.

    The project budget is estimated at $3.3bn, and the bid deadline is 29 December, with a meeting for contractors scheduled for 14 September.

    The tender was issued on 23 August.

    The proposed plant will have the capacity to process up to 632 million cubic feet a day of gas and 60,000 b/d a day of condensates from the Dorra offshore field, located in Gulf waters in the Saudi-Kuwait Neutral Zone.

    In February, MEED reported that at least seven companies had shown interest in participating in the tender.

    Contractors that sent representatives to previous meetings to discuss the project include:

    • Samsung E&A (South Korea)
    • Larsen & Toubro (India)
    • Tecnicas Reunidas (Spain)
    • Saipem (Italy)
    • Hyundai Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
    • Hyundai Engineering Company (South Korea)
    • JGC (Japan)

    The tender process is using a fast-track model, which means that Kuwait’s Central Agency for Public Tenders (Capt) will not be involved in the tender process.

    Capt typically reviews the technical and commercial evaluations of bids and verifies that the bidding process is competitive.

    It is understood that not requiring Capt to approve this tender is expected to speed up the tender process.

    Iran disputes ownership of the field, referring to it as Arash.

    Iran claims the field partially extends into Iranian territory and asserts that Tehran should be a stakeholder in its development.

    The Dorra field’s close proximity to Iran could make development difficult due to current security concerns.

    The offshore elements of the wider Dorra field development project are expected to be especially difficult to protect from attacks from Iran.

    Earlier this month, MEED revealed that Al-Khafji Joint Operations (KJO) had selected contractors for two major offshore packages under the Dorra field facilities development project.

    KJO, which is jointly owned by Aramco subsidiary Aramco Gulf Operations Company and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation subsidiary KGOC, has divided the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) scope for the Dorra gas production project into four packages: three offshore and one onshore.

    US-based McDermott International has secured offshore package 2A, valued at about $1.5bn, according to sources.

    A consortium of India’s Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (LTEH) and Italian contractor Saipem has secured package 2B, sources told MEED.

    Estimated at about $3.7bn, package 2B is the largest of the three offshore EPC packages under the Dorra field facilities project.

    MEED reported in March that the LTEH/Saipem consortium had emerged as the lowest bidder for offshore package 2B.

    Contractors submitted bids for offshore packages 2A and 2B by the 9 March deadline, MEED previously reported. Bid validity was understood to expire on 15 August, prompting KJO to issue letters of intent to the selected contractors earlier this month, sources said.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18964461/main.png
    Wil Crisp