meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Riyadh prioritises stability over headline growth

28 September 2023

MEED's October 2023 special report on Saudi Arabia also includes: 

> POLITICS: Saudi Arabia looks both east and west
> GIGAPROJECTS: Gigaproject activity enters full swing
> TRANSPORT: Infrastructure projects support Riyadh’s logistics ambitions
> UPSTREAM: Aramco focuses on upstream capacity building
> DOWNSTREAM: Saudi chemical and downstream projects in motion
> POWER: Riyadh rides power projects surge
> WATER: Saudi water projects momentum holds steady
> BANKS: Saudi banks track more modest growth path
> SPORT: Saudi Arabia’s football vision goes global
> JEDDAH TOWER: Jeddah developer restarts world’s tallest tower

 

As 2023 heads towards its final quarter, Saudi Arabia has elected to continue to pursue further voluntary Opec+ oil production cuts, supporting oil prices at the expense of its own immediate GDP growth.

On 5 September, Riyadh confirmed its intention to roll over its additional 1 million barrels a day (b/d) of production cuts until the end of the fourth quarter. Analysts had largely expected Saudi Arabia to extend the cuts with a view to further tightening oil markets, and the price of Brent crude broke the $90-a-barrel mark and reached its highest point in 10 months shortly after the cut extension was announced.

Despite the rise in prices, Saudi Arabia’s ongoing oil production restraint will ensure no improvement is likely to be made on its modest mid-year real GDP growth forecasts.

In July, the Washington-based IMF lowered its projection for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth to 1.9 per cent, down from an earlier forecast of 3.1 per cent in April – and compared to an 8.7 per cent growth figure for 2022, which saw oil reach highs of up to $124 a barrel and the kingdom’s first fiscal surplus in nearly a decade.

The country also entered a technical recession in the second quarter after its economy contracted for its second successive quarter in a row – shrinking by 0.1 per cent after a contraction of 1.4 per cent in the first quarter, according to estimates from the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat). This resulted in a slowing of year-on-year growth to 3.8 per cent in the first quarter and 1.1 per cent in the second.

There is now a risk that the Saudi economy could see an overall contraction for 2023. The further three months of production cuts will translate into a 9 per cent overall fall in production in 2023, the largest drop in 15 years, according to Khalij Economics.

Non-oil growth

Despite the disappointing headline GDP growth figures and projections, however, Saudi Arabia is maintaining a robust non-oil growth rate.

The non-oil economy is estimated to have grown 5.5 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2023, according to Gastat, while oil sector growth declined by 4.2 per cent. Private sector growth for the quarter has been estimated to be even higher, at about 6.1 per cent.

At the same time, the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia purchasing managers’ index (PMI) settled to an 11-month low of 56.6 in August 2023, down from 57.7 in July, reflecting a moderation of non-oil activity. It was the second stepdown in two months for the index from a multi-year high for new business in June.

The headline PMI figures remain deeply positive, however, with the index well above the 50 mark that delineates growth from contraction. 

The index also saw the rate of job creation pick up further in August amid sustained new business growth. This reflects a continuation of a job creation trend in the country that has seen unemployment fall from 9 per cent during the Covid-19 pandemic to 4.8 per cent at the end of 2022. Meanwhile, youth unemployment has been halved over the past two years to 16.8 per cent in 2022.

On the flipside, input cost inflation accelerated to its fastest rate in over a year due to a sharper uptick in purchase prices, though selling prices partially compensated for this by also rising. Business confidence nevertheless slid to the lowest level since June 2020 over concerns of rising market competition.

Project performance

The kingdom’s non-oil sector should continue to be well supported by Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure and project spending plans. These schemes remain affordable thanks to the kingdom’s broad financial reserves and buffers.

As of mid-September, Saudi Arabia’s project spending for 2023 had already all but matched that of 2022, with contract awards in the kingdom approaching the $57bn mark – last year’s figure – but with three and a half months still left to run. 

This is the third straight year with project awards of around $55bn or more. This is a 75 per cent increase in spending compared to the period from 2016 to 2020, which witnessed an average of only slightly more than $30bn in awards each year.

There is a further $50bn-worth of project work in bid evaluation and expected to be awarded this year. Even accommodating the possibility of delays for much of this work, the award of even a modest portion of this would make 2023 by far the strongest year on record for project awards in Saudi Arabia.

This heightened level of projects activity is as much due to above-average spending on oil and gas infrastructure, amid a spree of investment by Saudi Aramco in the optimisation of its core assets, as it is to the kingdom’s gigaproject programme. 

Oil and gas project awards alone have exceeded $21bn in 2023 to date and could readily be on track to beat the previous award high of $24.7bn seen in 2019.

It is the construction and transport sector that has the furthest to go to outdo itself in the last quarter of 2023. 

Awards in the sector to date have hit $24.6bn, whereas awards in 2022 reached $34.7bn – so there is a $10.1bn gap to bridge to beat last year’s performance. This is not unrealistic given the $14.2bn-worth of projects in the sector under bid evaluation, and especially given the backing of the Public Investment Fund for the kingdom’s gigaprojects and other Vision 2030 schemes.

Overall, the ongoing upsurge in projects activity should continue to prove supportive of the non-oil economy, regardless of either the vicissitudes of the oil price or Saudi Arabia’s moderation of its own oil production.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11153290/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Kuwait tenders two Al-Mutlaa City construction packages

    2 September 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Kuwait’s Public Authority for Housing Welfare (PAHW) has tendered two contracts covering the construction of public buildings across five districts at its Al-Mutlaa City residential project.

    The first tender covers construction in the N5 and N6 districts, while the second covers N1, N3 and N4.

    The tenders were issued on 30 August, with a bid submission deadline of 30 September.

    The project is a housing scheme located 38.3 kilometres northwest of the Kuwait metropolitan area.

    It covers approximately 104 square kilometres and is expected to house up to 400,000 people.

    The mixed-use development will include residential, social, commercial and light industrial areas.

    In March 2023, MEED reported that PAHW had appointed France-based Egis as a project management consultant for the Al-Mutlaa City development.

    Under the agreement, Egis is providing programme-level service management, construction logistics and interface management services.

    The scope of work also includes cost management, a digital programme management system and a project management information system for the scheme.

    Al-Mutlaa City is one of the largest housing infrastructure projects being developed by the government as part of Kuwait’s Vision 2035.

    UK analytics firm GlobalData expects Kuwait’s construction industry to grow at an average annual rate of 7.1% in 2025-28, supported by investment in renewable energy, transport and oil and gas projects, as well as spending under the New Kuwait 2035 National Development Plan.

    Under this strategy, the government plans to invest KD350m ($1.1bn) to develop several sports projects in the country.

    The residential construction sector is expected to register average annual growth of 3.8% in 2025-28, supported by the government’s plan to build 65,500 housing units by 2029 through five projects.

    MEED’s September 2026 report on Kuwait includes:

    > COMMENT: Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive under fire
    > GOVERNMENT: Kuwait shows tentative signs of economic development
    > BANKING: Necessity is the mother of invention for Kuwaiti lenders
    > OIL & GAS: Regional war to have lasting impact on Kuwaiti oil sector
    > POWER & WATER: Kuwait utilities investment shifts towards water
    > CONSTRUCTION: Kuwait construction holds up despite regional strife
    > MARKET TALK: Kuwait stands resilient amid regional tensions

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19245517/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Preferred bidders emerge for Zatca residential PPP

    2 September 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca), through the National Centre for Privatisation and PPP (NCP), has selected preferred bidders to develop residential buildings at various land ports across the kingdom.

    The project covers developments across nine land ports, separated into two packages.

    Local firm Saudi Arabian Trading & Construction Company has been selected as the preferred bidder for the first package, which includes the Al-Batha, Salwa, Al-Raqi, Jadidat Arar, Al-Wadiah and Empty Quarter sites.

    Bahrain-headquartered Lamar Holding is the preferred bidder for the second package, which includes land ports at Al-Hadithah, Halat Ammar and Al-Durrah.

    The project will be implemented as a public-private partnership (PPP) on a design, build, finance, operate, maintain and transfer basis, with a contract duration of 23 years, including the construction period.

    The contract covers the construction and management of new residential buildings and associated facilities at the land ports, as well as the rehabilitation of existing facilities.

    The project is the latest scheme in the kingdom’s PPP pipeline. In January, Saudi Arabia launched a national privatisation strategy aimed at mobilising $64bn in private sector capital by 2030.

    Building on the privatisation programme first introduced in 2018, the strategy focuses on unlocking state-owned assets for private investment and privatising selected government services.

    In a statement, NCP said the strategy comprises 147 opportunities drawn from a broader pipeline of more than 500 projects across 18 sectors.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19244076/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Egypt signs PPA for 1GW Ras Shokeir wind farm

    2 September 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    A joint venture of the local Hassan Allam Utilities Energy and Infinity Power has signed a power purchase agreement (PPA) with Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) for the development of the 1GW Ras Shokeir wind project in Egypt.

    The project is located in Egypt’s Red Sea Governorate, within the Gulf of Suez wind corridor. It will cover approximately 143 square kilometres.

    The PPA has a 25-year term. The project will supply electricity to Egypt’s national grid.

    Ras Shokeir is expected to generate enough electricity to power more than 1.2 million Egyptian homes. It is also expected to avoid more than 1.36 million tonnes of CO2 emissions annually.

    The PPA was signed by EETC chairperson Mona Rizk and Infinity Power co-founder and CEO Nayer Fouad, representing the Infinity Power-Hassan Allam consortium.

    The signing brings the project closer to development as Egypt seeks to expand its renewable energy capacity. Egypt has set a target for renewable energy to make up 42% of the electricity mix by 2030 and 65% by 2040.

    This includes the 500MW Amunet 2 wind project, which is being developed by UAE-headquartered Amea Power following the commissioning of the first Amunet wind project in June 2025.

    Hassan Allam Utilities Energy and Infinity Power are also developing Egypt’s $560m West Minya solar plant, which will combine 1,000MWac of solar photovoltaic capacity with a 600MWh battery energy storage system.

    In June, MEED reported that a joint venture of Hassan Allam Construction and India’s Sterling & Wilson Renewable Energy had won the engineering, procurement and construction contract for the project.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19242701/main1603.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • NWC confirms $347m Saudi sewage treatment plant deal

    2 September 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s National Water Company (NWC) has signed a contract worth more than SR1.3bn ($347m) with a Saudi-Chinese consortium to rehabilitate, operate and maintain nine sewage treatment plants (STPs).

    The 15-year contract covers plants located across the Hail, Qassim, Al-Jouf and Northern Borders provinces. The plants have a combined treatment design capacity of more than 337,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d).

    MEED exclusively reported in January that the consortium comprising China’s Jiangsu United Water Technology and Saudi-based Armada Holding had won the contract for the project.

    The contract is for the Northern Cluster Sewage Treatment Plants Package 10 (LTOM10) and includes an initial three-year period for rehabilitation and upgrade works, followed by long-term operation and maintenance.

    NWC said the contract was signed with a tariff of SR0.69 ($0.18) a cubic meter.

    As MEED understands, United Water will be responsible for design, financing, operation and part of the construction works. Saudi Arabia’s Armada Holding will handle construction, equipment import customs clearance and local business communications. UAE-registered Prosus Holding will act as the financial investor.

    LTOM packages

    The same consortium is also expected to sign a contract for Package 11 of the LTOM programme in the coming months.

    In April, MEED exclusively reported that the consortium won the contract for this project, which will have a combined capacity of about 440,000 cm/d.

    Bids for North Western B Cluster (LTOM12) remain under evaluation. The contract covers the construction and upgrade of seven STPs with a combined capacity of about 162,000 cm/d.

    NWC also tendered the Eastern A Cluster (LTOM14) package in April, covering the upgrade of six existing STPs with a capacity expansion of 30,000 cm/d at the Al-Jarodia STP.

    This will increase total treatment capacity from about 263,000 cm/d to approximately 293,000 cm/d, with an estimated cost of $180m.

    The bid submission deadline is 30 September.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19242964/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Iraq looks to accelerate oil pipeline projects

    2 September 2026

    Iraq’s Ministry of Oil has held talks with a delegation from Qatari company UCC on accelerating the progress of two major pipeline projects, according to a statement from Iraq’s Office of Media and Government Communication.

    The first proposed pipeline route extends from Basra, in southern Iraq, to Haditha, located about 200 kilometres northwest of Baghdad, then on to Faysh Khabur, which lies on the border with Syria and near the border with Turkiye.

    The second pipeline extends from Haditha to Syria’s coastal city of Baniyas.

    Discussions covered the contract type, implementation timeline and “other technical matters”, according to the statement released by the Iraqi government.

    During the meeting, Iraq’s Minister of Oil, Basem Mohammed Khudair Al-Abadi, emphasised the need to expedite the tendering process for the project contracts.

    He said all obstacles to progress on the projects needed to be eliminated.

    He also said weekly meetings will be held between relevant parties to reach agreements on the economic models for the pipelines and their routes.

    The Ministry of Oil said UCC is leading a consortium of companies developing the projects.

    It added that the consortium includes US-based Chevron, the investment company TI Capital and France’s TotalEnergies.

    In July, Iraq’s cabinet approved Basra Oil Company signing a ​heads of agreement and a non-disclosure agreement with the consortium to explore possible future oil pipeline projects.

    Under the terms of the agreement, the consortium will prepare technical and financial feasibility studies for strategic export pipeline projects.

    Also in July, US-based KBR was awarded a consultancy contract for the section of pipeline due to extend from Basra to Haditha.

    In April, Iraq announced the allocation of $1.5bn for the Basra-Haditha route, while the larger scheme is estimated at around $5bn.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19241649/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp