meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Riyadh maintains its economic lead

26 May 2023

 

Saudi Arabia has continued the performance it enjoyed heading into 2023 in the MEED Economic Activity Index, consolidating its lead with a combination of robust growth and sustained activity in its projects market.

Riyadh already enjoyed the fastest rate of real GDP growth in the region in 2022, at 8.7 per cent, and is maintaining 3.1 per cent growth in 2023 despite the current oil economy downsides. Its projects market has now seen two years of consecutive well-above-average activity, with $62bn in contract awards in the past 12 months.

As Brent crude oil prices have slipped and Opec+ production cuts have come into effect, energy exporters have seen their economic fortunes wane to varying degrees. For economies across the Middle East and North Africa (Mena), elevated inflation is also straining public finances as countries subsidise key imports.

GCC growth

The UAE is set to maintain 3.5 per cent real GDP growth, to be buoyed by non-oil growth in sectors such as real estate, leisure and tourism. The country is maintaining wide fiscal and current account surpluses and generally strong economic fundamentals across the board. 

The only caveat to its performance has been some slippage in project activity, with significant project completions seeing value exit the market above the level of replacement by project awards, which continue to sit well below historic levels.

Qatar is in a similar position. Its strong underlying economic fundamentals are being undermined to a degree by slippage in the country’s projects sector, which has also rapidly shed value as legacy projects have wrapped up. 

At the same time, Qatar’s projects market has been bolstered by a surge in energy industry spending, led by gas production maintenance on the North Field.

Kuwait is currently forecast for just 0.9 per cent real GDP growth in 2023, by far the most dismal projection in the GCC. 

Despite its sustained fiscal resilience, the country has a weak non-oil economy that is stymied further by the government’s conservative project spending. Kuwait’s projects market shed $70bn in value in the past five years, against less than $20bn in project contract awards.

Oman, though a slightly less solvent GCC member, is set for 1.7 per cent real GDP growth in 2023 and the lowest consumer price inflation rate in the region for the year, at 1.9 per cent. However, the country’s projects market is also tracking downwards at present.

Bahrain, the final GCC entry in the index, has sound growth and low unemployment, but continues to be weighed down fiscally by its debt trap, with the country continuing to borrow even at higher oil prices. Its projects market is also in a dismal state, with contract awards down by three-quarters on the country’s average annual awards in the past five years.

For economies across the Middle East and North Africa, elevated inflation is straining public finances as countries subsidise key imports

Mena performance

Jordan is in the opposite boat from the lower-performing GCC members. Its fiscal ill health is temporarily a secondary concern to the positive growth story in its projects market. 

The award of the $3bn Zarqa refinery expansion project, which has been in the works since 2002, is a huge boost to the country’s projects sector. The largest single award in the country ever recorded by regional projects tracker MEED Projects, it alone has made 2023 the best year for Jordan’s projects market since 2014.

Egypt’s 3.7 per cent real GDP growth forecast for 2023 is among the best in the region, but the country is still labouring under high inflation and persistent current account and fiscal deficits. The flip side of this is that the country has maintained its project spending, with an above-average award value in the past 12 months.

Iraq is also forecast for 3.7 per cent growth and has a strong trade surplus at present. While its projects sector has been in freefall this past year, a proposed record budget for 2023 could quickly reverse that trend.

Libya is set for the region’s highest growth rate, in theory, at 17.5 per cent, as the country’s oil industry returns to functionality after a year of contraction. The country remains fragile, with one in two young people unemployed. The country’s projects market is heading in a generally positive direction, however.

Algeria is on track for modest growth, ongoing high inflation and a deepening deficit amid the oil sector downsides. A lack of project activity is also weighing on the market.

Iran is battling fierce consumer price inflation, with a projected rate of more than 40 per cent in 2023, and faces general fiscal weakness amid ongoing sanctions. Project activity, however, has been on the uptick in the country in the past year.

Morocco and Tunisia both continue to struggle with twin current account and fiscal deficits and rising debt. While Morocco has higher growth forecasts for 2023, its projects market has witnessed a steep decline in the past year. Tunisia has weaker growth, but its projects market remains more stable.

The economies of Yemen and Lebanon are meanwhile set to contract this year. Both countries face persisting inflation changes, though Lebanon is dealing with more severe challenges and has 30 per cent unemployment.

About the index

MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors, alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

View the January 2023 index here

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10888901/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Read the February 2026 MEED Business Review

    2 February 2026

    Download / Subscribe / 14-day trial access

    After years of cautious capital discipline, upstream oil and gas spending is gathering pace across the Middle East and beyond, with 2026 shaping up to be a statement year for investment.

    In the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region, oil companies are pushing ahead with projects deemed critical to long-term energy security, even as oil prices soften. Gas and LNG developments are taking an increasingly prominent role, reflecting rising power demand and the search for lower-carbon fuels.

    Globally, North America is set to lead upstream spending through to 2030, but the Middle East remains a close follower, underpinned by low-cost reserves and expanding infrastructure. Read more about what’s driving the next wave of upstream investment here.

    Meanwhile, February’s market focus covers Qatar, where Doha is beginning to reap the rewards of its long-term gas investment, strategic spending and diplomatic efforts.

    This edition also includes MEED’s latest ranking of GCC water developers. In this package, we look at how the water sector has regained momentum, as the value of public-private partnership and engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract awards for Mena water infrastructure schemes reached a record level in 2025. 

    In the latest issue, we also examine how Iran's recent protests have elevated regional uncertainty, and reveal that GCC contract awards declined by almost a third in 2025. The team also speaks to Mohamed Youssef of AtkinsRealis about demand drivers and challenges for the Canadian EPC specialist; discusses projects market resilience with US engineering firm Parsons' Pierre Santoni; and highlights how DP World underpins Dubai’s economic growth strategy. 

    MEED’s February edition is also bursting with exclusive leadership insight. Saeed Mohammed Al-Qatami, CEO of Deyaar Development, talks about the need for tomorrow’s communities to move beyond conventional real estate thinking; Ali Al-Dhaheri, managing director and CEO of Tadweer Group, explains why waste-to-energy infrastructure is critical to future energy needs; and Dal Bhatti of global insurance broker Marsh predicts a breakthrough year for Middle East construction in 2026.

    We hope our valued subscribers enjoy the February 2026 issue of MEED Business Review. 

     

    Must-read sections in the February 2026 issue of MEED Business Review include:

    > AGENDA: 
    > Mena upstream spending set to soar
    > Global upstream spending to grow

    > CURRENT AFFAIRS: Iran protests elevate regional uncertainty

    INDUSTRY REPORT:
    MEED's GCC water developer ranking
    > Regional IWP deals show cautious growth
    > Pipeline boom lifts Mena water awards

    > PROJECTS: Contract awards decline in 2025

    > LEADERSHIP: Tomorrow’s communities must heal us, not just house us

    > INTERVIEW: Building faster without breaking the programme

    > PORTS: DP World underpins Dubai’s economic growth strategy

    > INTERVIEW: Projects show resilience

    > LEADERSHIP: Energy security starts with rethinking waste

    > LEADERSHIP: Why 2026 is a breakthrough year for Middle East construction

    > MARKET FOCUS QATAR: 
    > COMMENT: Qatar’s strategy falls into place
    > GVT & ECONOMY: Qatar enters 2026 with heady expectations
    > BANKING: Qatar banks search for growth
    > OIL & GAS: QatarEnergy achieves strategic oil and gas goals in 2025
    > POWER & WATER: Dukhan solar award drives Qatar’s utility sector
    > CONSTRUCTION: Infrastructure investments underpin Qatar construction

    > MEED COMMENTS: 
    >     Kuwait oil tender delays cause problems for key contractors
    > International Financial Centre Oman will have to differentiate
    > Chinese firm’s Riyadh skyscraper debut signals a shift
    > Ras Al-Khaimah sewage award marks key milestone

    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index enters 2026 upbeat

    > DECEMBER 2025 CONTRACTS: Middle East contract awards

    > ECONOMIC DATA: Data drives regional projects

    > OPINION: Trump’s distraction is the region’s gain

    > BUSINESS OUTLOOK: Finance, oil and gas, construction, power and water contracts

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15526442/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • Turner & Townsend to manage Rak Central construction

    2 February 2026

    UK-based Turner & Townsend has been appointed to provide project management services for the Rak Central mixed-use development in the UAE’s northern emirate of Ras Al-Khaimah.

    Rak Central features residential and commercial districts.

    The project will be developed in phases.

    The first phase includes 1 million square feet of commercial office space. It also involves developing 34 residential plots, which will be offered to developers to build residential towers up to 45 storeys.

    The development will comprise three hotels offering more than 1,000 keys and 4,000 residential apartments across five interconnected buildings.

    The first phase is set to open in 2027.

    It is being constructed on Sheikh Mohammed Bin Salem Al-Qasimi Street. 

    In September last year, Ras Al-Khaimah-based master developer Marjan appointed Dubai-based firm Alec as the main contractor for its new headquarters and a mixed-use office complex at Rak Central.

    The complex has been designed by US-based architectural firm Gensler.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15552389/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi Arabia tenders Al-Ula wellfield expansion contract

    2 February 2026

    Saudi Arabia’s Water Transmission Company (WTCO) has opened bidding for an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract to develop and expand the Sharaan wellfield in Al-Ula, in Medina province.

    The submission deadline is 15 February.

    The project is divided into two stages. The pre-expansion phase covers upgrading and rehabilitation works at 13 existing operating groundwater wells.

    This includes replacing diesel generators at the PS1 pump station, upgrading the fuel system and carrying out electrical retrofitting across all wells.

    Each well will be equipped with a dedicated generator to allow continuous, autonomous 24-hour operation.

    The expansion phase, covering phase one only, includes drilling eight new production wells and one observation well. It also includes the construction of a 5,000-cubic-metre ground-level storage reservoir.

    Additional works include installing two high-capacity pumps and developing a carbon steel pipeline network integrated with PS1 to deliver the full design flow.

    According to the tender notice, contractors must demonstrate experience in groundwater well drilling, power generation systems, electrical and mechanical works, pump stations and water transmission networks.

    WTCO is also moving forward with procurement for the Ras Mohaisen-Baha-Mecca and Jubail-Buraidah independent water transmission system projects under the public-private partnership model.

    The state-owned water utility said qualified EPC contractors have until 5 February to submit technical and financial bids for the 542,000-cubic-metres-a-day Ras Mohaisen project.

    The bid submission deadline for the 348-kilometre-long Jubail-Buraidah project was 1 February.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15551695/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Riyadh qualifies five groups for One-Stop Stations PPP

    2 February 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s Roads General Authority (RGA), in collaboration with the National Centre for Privatisation & Public-Private Partnership (NCP), has qualified five groups for a contract to develop the kingdom’s One-Stop Station project on a public-private partnership (PPP) basis.

    The groups include:

    • Al-Ayuni Investment & Contracting Company / Al-Jeri
    • IC Ictas / Algihaz Holding / Al-Drees
    • TechTrade Global / Al-Habbas / Fuelax / Markabat / Naqleen Company
    • Petromin / Red Sea Housing
    • Asyad / Sasco

    The project includes the development of facilities at several locations across the RGA’s 73,600-kilometre intercity road network.

    The facilities include refuelling stations, commercial outlets, parking lots, driver rest areas, vehicle maintenance centres and other hospitality amenities.

    The project will be implemented under a 30-year design, build, finance, operate and maintain (DBFOM) contract, and will be tendered in three waves comprising six packages.

    The first wave will include the initial package, the second wave will encompass the second and third packages, and the third wave will cover the remaining three packages.

    In August last year, 49 Saudi and international firms expressed interest in the contract to develop the kingdom’s One-Stop Station project, as MEED reported.

    In January, Saudi Arabia launched a National Privatisation Strategy, which aims to mobilise $64bn in private sector capital by 2030.

    The strategy was approved by Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Finance and chairman of the National Centre for Privatisation (NCP), Mohammed Bin Abdullah Al-Jadaan.

    The strategy builds on the privatisation programme, which was first introduced in 2018. It will focus on unlocking state-owned assets for private investment and privatising selected government services.

    The value of PPP contracts in Saudi Arabia has risen sharply over the past few years as the government seeks to develop projects through the private sector and diversify funding sources

    PPPs have been used in Saudi Arabia and the wider GCC region for over two decades, but have primarily been limited to power generation and water desalination projects, where developers benefit from guaranteed take-or-pay power purchase agreements that eliminate demand risk.

    As capital expenditure continues to increase, the NCP is expected to add dozens more PPPs to its future pipeline to reduce the state’s financial burden and stimulate private sector involvement in the local projects market.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15551647/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Jordan allows phosphate rail line bidders more time

    30 January 2026

     

    Abu Dhabi’s National Infrastructure Construction Company (NICC), a subsidiary of Etihad Rail, has allowed contractors until 15 February to submit their proposals for a contract to build the second section of the phosphate railway line that will run from Ghor Al-Safi to Aqaba in Jordan.

    The tender was issued on 27 December, with an initial bid submission deadline of the end of January.

    The scope of work for the railway includes civil engineering, tunnel construction, and mechanical, electrical and plumbing (MEP) works.

    Tendering is also ongoing for the first section of the line. NICC is preparing to award the contract for the first section of the railway line, stretching from Al-Shidiya to Aqaba.

    MEED understands that the evaluation is in its final stages and that the contract will be awarded soon.

    In April last year, a French-Swiss joint venture of Egis and Arx was awarded the design consultancy contract for the project.

    Etihad Rail announced in September 2024 that it had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) worth $2.3bn with Jordan’s Transport Ministry and local companies to develop the phosphate railway line.

    In an official statement, Etihad Rail said it had signed an agreement with Jordan to build, operate and maintain the project.

    The statement added that additional MoUs were signed with Jordan Phosphate Mines Company and Arab Potash Company to transport 16 million tonnes a year of phosphate and potash from mining sites to the Port of Aqaba via the Jordanian railway network.

    The MoUs also cover the manufacture and supply of rolling stock; the construction of terminals in Aqaba, Ghor Al-Safi and Shidiya; and the maintenance, repair and operation of the railway line. 

    Project history

    In 2015, Jordan’s Transport Ministry tendered a contract to construct the Shidiya rail link, intended to transport 6 million tonnes a year of phosphate from mines in Shidiya to Wadi Al-Yutum, near Aqaba.

    In November of that year, a joint venture of China Communications Construction Company and the local contractor Masar United was confirmed as the lowest bidder. It was awaiting the formal award to build the 21-kilometre spur line.

    The project was subsequently put on hold due to funding issues.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15541534/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal