meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Resurging projects uplift UAE and Saudi economies

29 January 2024

 

The UAE and Saudi Arabia are almost neck-and-neck – with the UAE marginally in the lead – at the top of the MEED Economic Activity Index, which assesses the near-term economic health of regional markets.

In October 2023, both countries were forecast by the Washington-based IMF to grow at a region-beating rate of 4% in real GDP terms in 2024, though without taking into account the deepening of voluntary oil production cuts in November by half a dozen Opec+ countries, among them Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

In the Q4 Opec+ meeting, in addition to the voluntary cuts announced in April 2023 and extended until the end of 2024, Saudi Arabia and the UAE agreed to cut their oil production by a further 1 million barrels a day (b/d) and 163,000 b/d, respectively, until the end of Q1 2024.

The impact of these additional cuts, as well as the trailing of the oil price below the IMF’s forecast of $79.9 a barrel in 2024, remains to be seen, but – other factors notwithstanding – it should be negative.

In spite of this, some think tanks and ratings agencies have given both countries even more bullish real GDP projections since the start of the year. Aljazira Capital has forecast a 4.4% real GDP growth figure for Saudi Arabia in 2024 and ratings agency Moody’s has projected an even higher 4.6% growth rate.

Aljazira Capital stated that weaker oil revenues “would be offset by growth in non-oil revenues” from the private sector amid the implementation of non-oil spending programmes under Saudi Vision 2030.

For the UAE, ratings agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P) meanwhile forecast 5% growth in 2024 – also driven by the non-oil sector, which grew by 6% in 2023, led by hospitality, retail and financial services.

Beyond the headline figures, both countries are keeping their inflation and fiscal balance in check and have relatively contained unemployment levels. However, Saudi Arabia’s figures of 5.6% unemployment and 23.8% youth unemployment both remain well above average for the GCC countries.

Projects boom

Both countries have also seen a surge in projects activity. Together, they were responsible for the bulk of the $253bn in contracts that made 2023 a record year for regional project activity.

In Saudi Arabia, the total awards value for the year was 59% higher, rising to $95bn – double the long-term average value of project awards over the preceding 10 years. New work also outstripped project completions by a ratio of almost four to one, adding $70bn to the net value of projects under execution.

In the UAE, the value of project awards leapt by 175% to hit $81.5bn – a value almost close to double the long-term average. Significant project completions worth more than $48bn nevertheless weighed on the market and reduced the net change in the value of projects under execution to $33bn.

Other markets

The other GCC countries have mixed outlooks, with varying growth forecasts and projects market activity.

Qatar has a modest 2.2% growth projection for 2024 and has maintained recent project awards at a level matching the rate of completion of legacy projects, as well as the long-term award value average.

Kuwait’s economy was given a 2024 growth forecast of 3.6% by the IMF in October, after contracting in 2023, but this does not include the voluntary production cuts announced in November. The country’s projects market meanwhile continues to slip, with its 2023 awards sitting at just 76% of its average.

The revision of Oman’s 2024 growth forecast by the IMF in January provides a glimpse into the impact of the additional voluntary oil production cuts announced in November for Q1, with the country’s real GDP growth projection for the year having been revised down markedly from 2.7% to 1.4%. The country’s projects market is nevertheless largely holding its own, with its 2023 contract awards clocking in at 88% of the long-term average, even as completions slightly exceeded new awards.

Bahrain continues to struggle with a persistent fiscal deficit and deepening debt, and the squeezing of the country’s cash flow is being reflected in its sinking projects market. The $1.2bn in awards in 2023 flagged 32% behind completions and 65% below the market’s long-term average.

Morocco has increasingly emerged as one of the least troubled markets in the wider Middle East and North Africa region, with a solid 3.6% growth projection for its largely non-hydrocarbons economy. Inflation in the country has also been curbed and the $2.4bn in project awards in 2023 exceeded completions by 24%, despite dipping below the long-term average.

Egypt is heading into 2024 facing severe economic headwinds, with high inflation amid falling foreign exchange reserves and the looming prospect of a further currency devaluation, short of an IMF bailout. The country’s mounting fiscal trouble has been reflected by falling projects activity, with the $12.6bn in awards in 2023 being both below the level of completions and 44% below the long-term average.

Tunisia has a forecast of just 1.9% real GDP growth, but an unexpected burst of $1.5bn in project awards in 2023 boosted projects activity – with the value nearly double both completions and average awards.

Algeria, Iraq and Jordan face various headwinds, but chief among their problems is that their middling growth rates are insufficient to accommodate either their rising debt or double-digit unemployment. All three countries also had projects markets that underperformed in 2023, with award values below both the level of completions and long-term averages.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11466710/main1207.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Partners launch feed-to-EPC contest for Duqm petchems project

    27 April 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Omani state energy conglomerate OQ Group and Kuwait Petroleum International (KPI), the overseas subsidiary of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, have initiated a feed-to-EPC competition among contractors to develop a major petrochemicals complex at Duqm.

    Under a feed-to-EPC model, the project operator selects contractors to carry out front-end engineering and design (feed). It then awards the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract to the contractor with the most competitive feed proposal, while compensating the other contestants for their work.

    OQ8, the 50:50 joint venture of OQ and KPI, is understood to have issued the tender for the Duqm petrochemicals project’s feed-to-EPC competition in mid-March, with a deadline of 6 May for contractors to submit proposals, sources told MEED.

    Several local and international contractors based in Oman are believed to be participating in the competition, according to sources.

    OQ Group CEO Ashraf Bin Hamad Al-Maamari and KPI’s CEO Shafi Bin Taleb Al-Ajmi signed an agreement on 3 February, during the Kuwait Oil & Gas Show and Conference, to develop a major petrochemicals-producing complex in Oman’s Duqm. The parties did not disclose details at the time.

    ALSO READ: Duqm petrochemicals revival provides fillip to Gulf projects market

    The agreement represented a significant step forward in Oman and Kuwait’s long-held plans to jointly develop a petrochemicals complex next to the existing Duqm refinery, which will benefit from favourable feedstock access and strong cost competitiveness.

    The planned facility will also benefit from  in Al-Wusta governorate, along Oman’s Arabian Sea coastline.

    OQ8 had struggled to make meaningful progress on the Duqm petrochemicals project since the plan was conceived as early as 2018, for a variety of reasons.

    The original plan for the Duqm petrochemicals facility, estimated at $7bn, centred on a mixed-feed steam cracker with a capacity to produce 1.6 million tonnes a year (t/y) of ethylene. The project also included a polypropylene (PP) plant with a capacity of 280,000 t/y and a high-density polyethylene (HDPE) plant with a capacity of 480,000 t/y.

    The complex was also expected to include an aromatics plant, as well as storage facilities for naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

    The project’s prospects were temporarily boosted when Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) expressed interest in investing by signing a non-binding memorandum of understanding with OQ in December 2021.

    Reuters reported in December that Sabic was withdrawing from the project, leaving OQ to look for other partners. The new agreement between OQ and KPI is understood to have followed the Saudi chemical giant’s departure.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577785/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Nakheel awards $953m Palm Jebel Ali villas deal

    27 April 2026

    Dubai-based real estate developer Nakheel, now part of Dubai Holding, has awarded two contracts worth AED3.5bn ($953m) to local firms for the construction of 544 villas at its Palm Jebel Ali project in Dubai.

    The first contract was awarded to Ginco General Contracting for the construction of 354 villas across fronds A to D.

    The second contract was awarded to United Engineering Construction Company (Unec) for the construction of 190 villas on fronds E and F.

    Construction is expected to begin in Q2 this year, with completion scheduled for 2028.

    Earlier phases

    In October 2024, Nakheel awarded three contracts worth AED5bn ($1.3bn) for the construction of 723 villas on fronds K to P. The contracts went to Ginco, Unec and the local Shapoorji Pallonji.

    Under these awards, Ginco is delivering 197 villas on fronds O and P, Shapoorji Pallonji is constructing 275 villas on fronds M and N, and Unec is building 251 villas on fronds K and L. Villa construction is expected to be completed by 2026.

    Infrastructure works

    This was followed by Nakheel awarding infrastructure contracts worth over AED750m ($204m) to local firm Dutco Construction for works on Palm Jebel Ali.

    The infrastructure work includes utility connections, excavation, backfilling, and the construction of roads and pavements across fronds A to G. It also covers 11-kilovolt power distribution and telecommunications-related utility works.

    Reclamation contract

    In August 2024, Nakheel awarded an AED810m ($220m) contract to complete the reclamation works for the project.

    The contract was awarded to Belgium’s Jan De Nul. Its scope includes dredging, land reclamation, beach profiling and sand placement to support the construction of villas across all fronds.

    Masterplan details

    Nakheel released details of the new masterplan for Palm Jebel Ali in June 2023. Twice the size of Palm Jumeirah, Palm Jebel Ali will have 110 kilometres of shoreline and extensive green spaces. The development will feature more than 80 hotels and resorts, along with a range of entertainment and leisure facilities.

    It includes seven connected islands that will cater to approximately 35,000 families. The development also emphasises sustainability, with 30% of public facilities expected to be powered by renewable energy.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577782/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Iraq’s first LNG terminal to be completed in June

    27 April 2026

    Iraq’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal is expected to be completed in early June, according to the country’s Ministry of Electricity.

    The terminal, which has an estimated investment value of $450m, is being developed at the Port of Khor Al-Zubair and will have a capacity of 750 million standard cubic feet a day (cf/d).

    Ministry spokesperson Ahmed Mousa told the Iraqi News Agency that “work is proceeding at an accelerated pace to complete the LNG platform”, noting that “the government has set 1 June as the date for finishing the project”.

    In October last year, US-based Excelerate Energy signed a commercial agreement with a subsidiary of Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity to develop the floating LNG terminal.

    The contract was signed at the office of Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani during a ceremony attended by senior officials from both countries, including the US deputy secretary of energy James Danly.

    The contract included a five-year agreement for regasification services and LNG supply with extension options, featuring a minimum contracted offtake of 250 million cf/d.

    Ahmed Mousa said that “under the contract, the company is responsible for completing the facility as well as securing the agreed gas quantities from any source, in line with the specified terms”.

    He added: “Work is continuing according to the planned timelines to complete the project on schedule, as part of the Ministry of Electricity’s plans to keep pace with peak summer loads.”

    Although Iraq is Opec’s second-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, it is a net natural gas importer because its lack of infrastructure investment has meant that, until 2023, it flared roughly half of the estimated 3.12 billion cf/d of gas produced in association with crude oil.

    Iraq’s reliance on flaring associated gas instead of gathering and processing it has prevented the country from fully realising its potential as a gas producer and forced the Iraqi government to rely on costly gas and electricity imports from Iran.

    Recently, Iraq’s oil and gas sector has been disrupted by fallout from the US and Israel’s attack on Iran on 28 February and the subsequent regional conflict.

    Over recent weeks, Iraq’s oil exports have collapsed by about 80% amid problems shipping crude through the Strait of Hormuz.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577746/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Iraqi LNG import terminal raises questions about energy strategy

    27 April 2026

    Commentary
    Wil Crisp
    Oil & gas reporter

    Iraq’s first LNG import terminal is set to come online in early June, at a time when global LNG prices are likely to remain close to their highest levels in more than three years.

    The disruption to global oil and gas exports in the wake of the US and Israel’s attack on Iran on 28 February led to LNG prices soaring, with natural gas prices in Asia and Europe rising to their highest levels since January 2023 during March.

    So far, there has been little progress towards a diplomatic or military solution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and most analysts do not forecast significant price declines in the near term.

    On 24 April, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the combined effect of short-term supply losses and slower capacity growth could result in a cumulative loss of around 120 billion cubic metres of LNG supply between 2026 and 2030.

    While the IEA expects new liquefaction projects in other regions to offset these losses over time, it still believes the crisis will lead to prolonged tight market conditions through 2026 and 2027.

    This means that Iraq will likely have to pay elevated prices for imported LNG for some time to come – if it can receive shipments at all.

    The port of Khor Al-Zubair is located in the Arabian Gulf, and LNG shipments from the US or Australia would need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz before reaching the terminal.

    This will only be possible if a solution is found to the ongoing blockade of the shipping route.

    Investment debate

    Iraq’s project to develop a floating LNG terminal is estimated to cost $450m, and many in Iraq may question whether this was the best use of these funds.

    While it may have been difficult for Iraqi policymakers to foresee the attack by the US and Israel on Iran and its impact on LNG markets, Iraq had several strong options to enhance domestic energy security rather than turning to LNG imports.

    The most obvious of these was investing in infrastructure to enable it to utilise its domestic gas reserves.

    According to the World Bank’s 2025 Global Gas Flaring Tracker Report, in 2024, Iraq burned off more unused gas than any other country, except Russia and Iran, which ranked first and second, respectively.

    That year, an estimated total of more than 18 billion cubic metres of natural gas was flared in Iraq due to a lack of infrastructure to properly capture and process it.

    It is highly likely that projects to gather and process this gas would have been more reliable and cost-effective than investing in a new floating LNG terminal, which increases the country’s exposure to global LNG price fluctuations and shipping disruptions.

    Other options could have included developing domestic gas fields or investing in solar and battery storage projects, which have become increasingly affordable in recent years.

    The cost of solar panels has fallen by more than 95% over the past decade.

    Power shortfall

    As things stand, Iraq is likely to face severe electricity shortages this summer.

    On 21 April, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity said it plans to produce 30,000MW this summer, well short of the predicted peak demand of around 55,000MW.

    Ahmed Musa, a spokesperson for the Electricity Ministry, told the state-run Iraqi News Agency that the shortfall will result in planned outages across the country.

    He also said that even meeting the 30,000MW target is contingent on sufficient gas supplies.

    If Iraq experiences the same level of power outages as last year – or worse – many are likely to view the $450m spent on an LNG import terminal as a waste of money and an expensive symbol of poor planning.

    Power cuts this summer could stoke unrest at a time that is already politically precarious due to the ongoing regional conflict.

    In recent years, electricity shortages have repeatedly fuelled protests in Iraq during the summer months, particularly in Basra, where blackouts and poor public services have driven people to take to the streets.

    If the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen soon, Iraq’s economic crisis will deepen, and electricity shortages are likely to further undermine the country’s stability.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577743/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Kuwait approves Doha desalination plant award

    27 April 2026

    Kuwait’s Central Agency for Public Tenders has approved the recommendation of the Ministry of Electricity & Water to award a KD114.28m ($371.5m) contract to supply, install, operate and maintain the second phase of the Doha seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant.

    A joint venture of Kuwait-based Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding Company (Heisco) and India’s VA Tech Wabag has been selected for the project, with the award understood to be pending final approval from the Audit Bureau.

    The project will deliver a production capacity of about 60 million imperial gallons a day (MIGD) and will include the desalination plant with full reverse osmosis trains, pre- and post-treatment systems, recarbonation equipment, booster pumps, and safety and filtration systems.

    The total project duration is 96 months. The Doha SWRO desalination plant is part of Kuwait’s broader programme to expand water production capacity and reduce reliance on thermal desalination methods.

    MEED previously reported that the Heisco/Wabag joint venture submitted the lowest bid. Bidders and prices included:

    • Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding / Wabag: $373.2m
    • Cox Water (Spain): $538.1m
    • Orascom Construction (Egypt): $568.4m

    In April 2025, MEED reported that Kuwait had retendered the contract for the facility after the ministry cancelled the initial tender in June 2024.

    The Ministry of Electricity & Water awarded South Korea’s Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction – now known as Doosan Enerbility – a $422m contract in May 2016 to build the 60 MIGD Doha 1 SWRO plant.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577722/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall