meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Resurging projects uplift UAE and Saudi economies

29 January 2024

 

The UAE and Saudi Arabia are almost neck-and-neck – with the UAE marginally in the lead – at the top of the MEED Economic Activity Index, which assesses the near-term economic health of regional markets.

In October 2023, both countries were forecast by the Washington-based IMF to grow at a region-beating rate of 4% in real GDP terms in 2024, though without taking into account the deepening of voluntary oil production cuts in November by half a dozen Opec+ countries, among them Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

In the Q4 Opec+ meeting, in addition to the voluntary cuts announced in April 2023 and extended until the end of 2024, Saudi Arabia and the UAE agreed to cut their oil production by a further 1 million barrels a day (b/d) and 163,000 b/d, respectively, until the end of Q1 2024.

The impact of these additional cuts, as well as the trailing of the oil price below the IMF’s forecast of $79.9 a barrel in 2024, remains to be seen, but – other factors notwithstanding – it should be negative.

In spite of this, some think tanks and ratings agencies have given both countries even more bullish real GDP projections since the start of the year. Aljazira Capital has forecast a 4.4% real GDP growth figure for Saudi Arabia in 2024 and ratings agency Moody’s has projected an even higher 4.6% growth rate.

Aljazira Capital stated that weaker oil revenues “would be offset by growth in non-oil revenues” from the private sector amid the implementation of non-oil spending programmes under Saudi Vision 2030.

For the UAE, ratings agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P) meanwhile forecast 5% growth in 2024 – also driven by the non-oil sector, which grew by 6% in 2023, led by hospitality, retail and financial services.

Beyond the headline figures, both countries are keeping their inflation and fiscal balance in check and have relatively contained unemployment levels. However, Saudi Arabia’s figures of 5.6% unemployment and 23.8% youth unemployment both remain well above average for the GCC countries.

Projects boom

Both countries have also seen a surge in projects activity. Together, they were responsible for the bulk of the $253bn in contracts that made 2023 a record year for regional project activity.

In Saudi Arabia, the total awards value for the year was 59% higher, rising to $95bn – double the long-term average value of project awards over the preceding 10 years. New work also outstripped project completions by a ratio of almost four to one, adding $70bn to the net value of projects under execution.

In the UAE, the value of project awards leapt by 175% to hit $81.5bn – a value almost close to double the long-term average. Significant project completions worth more than $48bn nevertheless weighed on the market and reduced the net change in the value of projects under execution to $33bn.

Other markets

The other GCC countries have mixed outlooks, with varying growth forecasts and projects market activity.

Qatar has a modest 2.2% growth projection for 2024 and has maintained recent project awards at a level matching the rate of completion of legacy projects, as well as the long-term award value average.

Kuwait’s economy was given a 2024 growth forecast of 3.6% by the IMF in October, after contracting in 2023, but this does not include the voluntary production cuts announced in November. The country’s projects market meanwhile continues to slip, with its 2023 awards sitting at just 76% of its average.

The revision of Oman’s 2024 growth forecast by the IMF in January provides a glimpse into the impact of the additional voluntary oil production cuts announced in November for Q1, with the country’s real GDP growth projection for the year having been revised down markedly from 2.7% to 1.4%. The country’s projects market is nevertheless largely holding its own, with its 2023 contract awards clocking in at 88% of the long-term average, even as completions slightly exceeded new awards.

Bahrain continues to struggle with a persistent fiscal deficit and deepening debt, and the squeezing of the country’s cash flow is being reflected in its sinking projects market. The $1.2bn in awards in 2023 flagged 32% behind completions and 65% below the market’s long-term average.

Morocco has increasingly emerged as one of the least troubled markets in the wider Middle East and North Africa region, with a solid 3.6% growth projection for its largely non-hydrocarbons economy. Inflation in the country has also been curbed and the $2.4bn in project awards in 2023 exceeded completions by 24%, despite dipping below the long-term average.

Egypt is heading into 2024 facing severe economic headwinds, with high inflation amid falling foreign exchange reserves and the looming prospect of a further currency devaluation, short of an IMF bailout. The country’s mounting fiscal trouble has been reflected by falling projects activity, with the $12.6bn in awards in 2023 being both below the level of completions and 44% below the long-term average.

Tunisia has a forecast of just 1.9% real GDP growth, but an unexpected burst of $1.5bn in project awards in 2023 boosted projects activity – with the value nearly double both completions and average awards.

Algeria, Iraq and Jordan face various headwinds, but chief among their problems is that their middling growth rates are insufficient to accommodate either their rising debt or double-digit unemployment. All three countries also had projects markets that underperformed in 2023, with award values below both the level of completions and long-term averages.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11466710/main1207.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Solar deals signal Saudi Arabia’s energy ambitions

    13 February 2026

    Commentary
    Mark Dowdall
    Power & water editor

    Saudi Arabia’s recent agreement to build $2bn-worth of solar power plants in Turkiye is the latest sign that the kingdom’s energy influence is changing.

    Historically, this was measured in oil barrels and export volumes. Increasingly, this is extending to capital, structuring expertise and the ability to deliver record-low tariffs in competitive markets.

    Announcing the deal, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said tariffs for the plants would be the country’s lowest on record, with electricity purchased under 25-year power purchase agreements.

    It followed another announcement, in January, that Acwa is investing $200m to build a large-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) plant in the Philippines.

    Whether Saudi-backed companies ultimately retain long-term stakes or primarily develop and build the assets, their role at the front end is significant.

    Sponsors that bring sovereign backing, clear procurement processes and access to low-cost financing can influence tariffs and contract terms from the outset.

    There is also a geopolitical layer. Investing in Turkiye, or anywhere for that matter, strengthens political and economic ties at a time when regional alignments are shifting.

    Energy infrastructure is also long-term by its nature. It connects ministries, regulators, lenders and operators in relationships that often extend well beyond a single transaction.

    Saudi Arabia has spent the past few years refining its approach to pricing, structuring and financing large-scale renewables at home.

    Exporting that expertise may not rival oil in scale or visibility, but it does signal that Saudi Arabia is becoming more than just an energy supplier.

    Increasingly, it is becoming a participant in how other countries design and finance their energy transitions. That influence is still significant.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15645903/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Saudi Arabia appoints new investment minister

    13 February 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    King Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud has made a series of senior government changes, including Khalid Al-Falih leaving his role as investment minister to become minister of state and a member of the cabinet.

    Al-Falih has been replaced by Fahad Al-Saif as investment minister. Al-Saif has been head of the Investment Strategy and Economic Insights Division at the Public Investment Fund (PIF) since 2024. That role involved formulating PIF’s long-term investment strategy. He has also served as head of the Global Capital Finance Division, a role he has held since joining PIF in 2021.

    The change of investment minister comes at a time when securing investments has become a key priority for Saudi Arabia as it prepares to hand over more projects to the private sector for delivery.

    King Salman also named Abdullah Al-Maghlouth as vice-minister of media and Abdulmohsen Al-Mazyad as vice-minister of tourism. Khalid Al-Yousef was named attorney general, and Sheikh Ali Al-Ahaideb will serve as president of the Board of Grievances.

    Faihan Al-Sahli was selected as director general of the General Directorate of Investigation, while Abdulaziz Al-Arifi was chosen to lead the National Development Fund. Haytham Al-Ohali will head the Communications, Space and Technology Commission, and Fawaz Al-Sahli will chair the Transport General Authority.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15645415/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Indian firm wins major Oman substation contract

    12 February 2026

     

    India’s Larsen & Toubro has won a contract to build the Majan 400/220/132kV grid station in Oman.

    Estimated to cost $100m, the project includes an associated 400kV line-in line-out underground cable from Sohar Free Zone to the Sohar Interconnector Station.

    The contract was awarded by Oman Electricity Transmission Company (OETC), part of the government-owned Nama Group.

    The grid station will comprise eight 400kV gas-insulated switchgear (GIS) bays, eight 220kV GIS bays and 10 132kV GIS bays at the new Sohar Free Zone substation.

    The scope includes the installation of two 500MVA, 400/220kV transformers and two 500MVA, 220/132kV transformers.

    Local firm Monenco Consulting Engineers was appointed in April last year to provide design and supervision services for the project.

    As MEED exclusively revealed, the main contract was tendered in June, as part of three significant contracts to build new substations in the sultanate.

    The second contract, worth about $35m, covers the construction of the Sultan Haitham City 132/33kV grid station and associated 132kV line-in line-out underground cables running 4 kilometres from Mabella to Mabella Industrial Zone.

    The third contract, valued at about $100m, covers the construction of the Surab 400/33kV grid station and an associated 400kV line-in line-out cable from the Duqm grid station to the Mahout grid station. 

    Local firms Muscat Engineering Consulting and Hamed Engineering Services are consultants for the Sultan Haitham City and Surab projects, respectively.

    The two remaining contracts are currently under bid evaluation, with awards expected this quarter.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15638107/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Developers appoint contractor for $500m wastewater treatment project

    12 February 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Egypt’s Orascom Construction has won the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for a major wastewater treatment project in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province.

    A consortium of Saudi utilities provider Marafiq, the regional business of France’s Veolia and Bahrain/Saudi Arabia-based Lamar Holding is developing the $500m (SR1.875bn) industrial wastewater treatment plant (IWWTP) in Jubail Industrial City 2.

    Sources close to the project confirmed the appointment to MEED, adding that the project has now entered the construction phase.

    Industry sources also said that financial close on the project is expected to be reached in the coming days.

    In September, the developer consortium was awarded a contract, under a 30-year concession agreement, by Saudi Aramco Total Refining & Petrochemical Company (Satorp), a joint venture of Saudi Aramco and France’s TotalEnergies.

    The planned facility will treat and recycle wastewater from Satorp’s under-construction Amiral chemical derivatives complex, also in Jubail.

    Marafiq, formally Power & Water Utility Company for Jubail and Yanbu, will own a 40% stake in the dedicated project company. Veolia Middle East SAS will hold a 35% stake, and Lamar Holding’s Lamar Arabia for Energy will hold the other 25%.

    The planned IWWTP, which will primarily serve the $11bn sprawling Amiral chemicals zone, will implement advanced water treatment and recovery technologies to process complex industrial effluents, including spent caustic streams. Treated water will be reintegrated into the industrial processes, supporting closed-loop reuse and energy efficiency.

    The project follows a concession-style model, akin to a public-private partnership (PPP), where the developer consortium invests in, builds and operates the wastewater plant over a 30-year period, with returns linked to service delivery.

    Marafiq has been involved in several similar projects across Saudi Arabia, including as the sole owner of the Jubail industrial water treatment plant (IWTP8), which treats complex industrial effluents for petrochemical and heavy industrial companies.

    In 2020, Saudi Services for Electro Mechanic Works was awarded the $202m main contract for the fourth expansion phase of IWTP8. Construction works on the project are expected to be completed by the end of the quarter.

    READ THE FEBRUARY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Spending on oil and gas production surges; Doha’s efforts support extraordinary growth in 2026; Water sector regains momentum in 2025.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the February 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15637523/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Dewa raises Empower stake in $1.41bn deal

    12 February 2026

    Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) has announced it has increased its stake in Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corporation (Empower) from 56% to 80%.

    The transaction was completed through the purchase of 2.4 billion shares and the transfer of the entire ownership of Emirates Power Investment (EPI), which is wholly owned by Dubai Holding.

    The total value of the deal is AED5.184bn ($1.41bn).

    Empower currently holds over 80% of Dubai’s district cooling market and operates 88 district cooling plants across the emirate.

    According to MEED Projects, the UAE’s district cooling sector currently has nine projects worth $1.29bn in the pre-execution phase.

    Empower has ownership in four of these projects, which have a combined value of $472m.

    This includes a $200 million district cooling plant at Dubai Science Park, with a total capacity of 47,000 refrigeration tonnes serving 80 buildings.

    Empower signed a contract to design the plant last August, with construction scheduled to begin by the end of the first quarter of 2026.

    The utility is also building a district cooling plant at Dubai Internet City.

    UAE-based TMF Euro Foundations was recently appointed as the enabling and piling subcontractor for the project.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15635949/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall