meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Resurging projects uplift UAE and Saudi economies

29 January 2024

 

The UAE and Saudi Arabia are almost neck-and-neck – with the UAE marginally in the lead – at the top of the MEED Economic Activity Index, which assesses the near-term economic health of regional markets.

In October 2023, both countries were forecast by the Washington-based IMF to grow at a region-beating rate of 4% in real GDP terms in 2024, though without taking into account the deepening of voluntary oil production cuts in November by half a dozen Opec+ countries, among them Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

In the Q4 Opec+ meeting, in addition to the voluntary cuts announced in April 2023 and extended until the end of 2024, Saudi Arabia and the UAE agreed to cut their oil production by a further 1 million barrels a day (b/d) and 163,000 b/d, respectively, until the end of Q1 2024.

The impact of these additional cuts, as well as the trailing of the oil price below the IMF’s forecast of $79.9 a barrel in 2024, remains to be seen, but – other factors notwithstanding – it should be negative.

In spite of this, some think tanks and ratings agencies have given both countries even more bullish real GDP projections since the start of the year. Aljazira Capital has forecast a 4.4% real GDP growth figure for Saudi Arabia in 2024 and ratings agency Moody’s has projected an even higher 4.6% growth rate.

Aljazira Capital stated that weaker oil revenues “would be offset by growth in non-oil revenues” from the private sector amid the implementation of non-oil spending programmes under Saudi Vision 2030.

For the UAE, ratings agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P) meanwhile forecast 5% growth in 2024 – also driven by the non-oil sector, which grew by 6% in 2023, led by hospitality, retail and financial services.

Beyond the headline figures, both countries are keeping their inflation and fiscal balance in check and have relatively contained unemployment levels. However, Saudi Arabia’s figures of 5.6% unemployment and 23.8% youth unemployment both remain well above average for the GCC countries.

Projects boom

Both countries have also seen a surge in projects activity. Together, they were responsible for the bulk of the $253bn in contracts that made 2023 a record year for regional project activity.

In Saudi Arabia, the total awards value for the year was 59% higher, rising to $95bn – double the long-term average value of project awards over the preceding 10 years. New work also outstripped project completions by a ratio of almost four to one, adding $70bn to the net value of projects under execution.

In the UAE, the value of project awards leapt by 175% to hit $81.5bn – a value almost close to double the long-term average. Significant project completions worth more than $48bn nevertheless weighed on the market and reduced the net change in the value of projects under execution to $33bn.

Other markets

The other GCC countries have mixed outlooks, with varying growth forecasts and projects market activity.

Qatar has a modest 2.2% growth projection for 2024 and has maintained recent project awards at a level matching the rate of completion of legacy projects, as well as the long-term award value average.

Kuwait’s economy was given a 2024 growth forecast of 3.6% by the IMF in October, after contracting in 2023, but this does not include the voluntary production cuts announced in November. The country’s projects market meanwhile continues to slip, with its 2023 awards sitting at just 76% of its average.

The revision of Oman’s 2024 growth forecast by the IMF in January provides a glimpse into the impact of the additional voluntary oil production cuts announced in November for Q1, with the country’s real GDP growth projection for the year having been revised down markedly from 2.7% to 1.4%. The country’s projects market is nevertheless largely holding its own, with its 2023 contract awards clocking in at 88% of the long-term average, even as completions slightly exceeded new awards.

Bahrain continues to struggle with a persistent fiscal deficit and deepening debt, and the squeezing of the country’s cash flow is being reflected in its sinking projects market. The $1.2bn in awards in 2023 flagged 32% behind completions and 65% below the market’s long-term average.

Morocco has increasingly emerged as one of the least troubled markets in the wider Middle East and North Africa region, with a solid 3.6% growth projection for its largely non-hydrocarbons economy. Inflation in the country has also been curbed and the $2.4bn in project awards in 2023 exceeded completions by 24%, despite dipping below the long-term average.

Egypt is heading into 2024 facing severe economic headwinds, with high inflation amid falling foreign exchange reserves and the looming prospect of a further currency devaluation, short of an IMF bailout. The country’s mounting fiscal trouble has been reflected by falling projects activity, with the $12.6bn in awards in 2023 being both below the level of completions and 44% below the long-term average.

Tunisia has a forecast of just 1.9% real GDP growth, but an unexpected burst of $1.5bn in project awards in 2023 boosted projects activity – with the value nearly double both completions and average awards.

Algeria, Iraq and Jordan face various headwinds, but chief among their problems is that their middling growth rates are insufficient to accommodate either their rising debt or double-digit unemployment. All three countries also had projects markets that underperformed in 2023, with award values below both the level of completions and long-term averages.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11466710/main1207.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Kuwait tenders two Al-Mutlaa City construction packages

    2 September 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Kuwait’s Public Authority for Housing Welfare (PAHW) has tendered two contracts covering the construction of public buildings across five districts at its Al-Mutlaa City residential project.

    The first tender covers construction in the N5 and N6 districts, while the second covers N1, N3 and N4.

    The tenders were issued on 30 August, with a bid submission deadline of 30 September.

    The project is a housing scheme located 38.3 kilometres northwest of the Kuwait metropolitan area.

    It covers approximately 104 square kilometres and is expected to house up to 400,000 people.

    The mixed-use development will include residential, social, commercial and light industrial areas.

    In March 2023, MEED reported that PAHW had appointed France-based Egis as a project management consultant for the Al-Mutlaa City development.

    Under the agreement, Egis is providing programme-level service management, construction logistics and interface management services.

    The scope of work also includes cost management, a digital programme management system and a project management information system for the scheme.

    Al-Mutlaa City is one of the largest housing infrastructure projects being developed by the government as part of Kuwait’s Vision 2035.

    UK analytics firm GlobalData expects Kuwait’s construction industry to grow at an average annual rate of 7.1% in 2025-28, supported by investment in renewable energy, transport and oil and gas projects, as well as spending under the New Kuwait 2035 National Development Plan.

    Under this strategy, the government plans to invest KD350m ($1.1bn) to develop several sports projects in the country.

    The residential construction sector is expected to register average annual growth of 3.8% in 2025-28, supported by the government’s plan to build 65,500 housing units by 2029 through five projects.

    MEED’s September 2026 report on Kuwait includes:

    > COMMENT: Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive under fire
    > GOVERNMENT: Kuwait shows tentative signs of economic development
    > BANKING: Necessity is the mother of invention for Kuwaiti lenders
    > OIL & GAS: Regional war to have lasting impact on Kuwaiti oil sector
    > POWER & WATER: Kuwait utilities investment shifts towards water
    > CONSTRUCTION: Kuwait construction holds up despite regional strife
    > MARKET TALK: Kuwait stands resilient amid regional tensions

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19245517/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Preferred bidders emerge for Zatca residential PPP

    2 September 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca), through the National Centre for Privatisation and PPP (NCP), has selected preferred bidders to develop residential buildings at various land ports across the kingdom.

    The project covers developments across nine land ports, separated into two packages.

    Local firm Saudi Arabian Trading & Construction Company has been selected as the preferred bidder for the first package, which includes the Al-Batha, Salwa, Al-Raqi, Jadidat Arar, Al-Wadiah and Empty Quarter sites.

    Bahrain-headquartered Lamar Holding is the preferred bidder for the second package, which includes land ports at Al-Hadithah, Halat Ammar and Al-Durrah.

    The project will be implemented as a public-private partnership (PPP) on a design, build, finance, operate, maintain and transfer basis, with a contract duration of 23 years, including the construction period.

    The contract covers the construction and management of new residential buildings and associated facilities at the land ports, as well as the rehabilitation of existing facilities.

    The project is the latest scheme in the kingdom’s PPP pipeline. In January, Saudi Arabia launched a national privatisation strategy aimed at mobilising $64bn in private sector capital by 2030.

    Building on the privatisation programme first introduced in 2018, the strategy focuses on unlocking state-owned assets for private investment and privatising selected government services.

    In a statement, NCP said the strategy comprises 147 opportunities drawn from a broader pipeline of more than 500 projects across 18 sectors.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19244076/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Egypt signs PPA for 1GW Ras Shokeir wind farm

    2 September 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    A joint venture of the local Hassan Allam Utilities Energy and Infinity Power has signed a power purchase agreement (PPA) with Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) for the development of the 1GW Ras Shokeir wind project in Egypt.

    The project is located in Egypt’s Red Sea Governorate, within the Gulf of Suez wind corridor. It will cover approximately 143 square kilometres.

    The PPA has a 25-year term. The project will supply electricity to Egypt’s national grid.

    Ras Shokeir is expected to generate enough electricity to power more than 1.2 million Egyptian homes. It is also expected to avoid more than 1.36 million tonnes of CO2 emissions annually.

    The PPA was signed by EETC chairperson Mona Rizk and Infinity Power co-founder and CEO Nayer Fouad, representing the Infinity Power-Hassan Allam consortium.

    The signing brings the project closer to development as Egypt seeks to expand its renewable energy capacity. Egypt has set a target for renewable energy to make up 42% of the electricity mix by 2030 and 65% by 2040.

    This includes the 500MW Amunet 2 wind project, which is being developed by UAE-headquartered Amea Power following the commissioning of the first Amunet wind project in June 2025.

    Hassan Allam Utilities Energy and Infinity Power are also developing Egypt’s $560m West Minya solar plant, which will combine 1,000MWac of solar photovoltaic capacity with a 600MWh battery energy storage system.

    In June, MEED reported that a joint venture of Hassan Allam Construction and India’s Sterling & Wilson Renewable Energy had won the engineering, procurement and construction contract for the project.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19242701/main1603.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • NWC confirms $347m Saudi sewage treatment plant deal

    2 September 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s National Water Company (NWC) has signed a contract worth more than SR1.3bn ($347m) with a Saudi-Chinese consortium to rehabilitate, operate and maintain nine sewage treatment plants (STPs).

    The 15-year contract covers plants located across the Hail, Qassim, Al-Jouf and Northern Borders provinces. The plants have a combined treatment design capacity of more than 337,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d).

    MEED exclusively reported in January that the consortium comprising China’s Jiangsu United Water Technology and Saudi-based Armada Holding had won the contract for the project.

    The contract is for the Northern Cluster Sewage Treatment Plants Package 10 (LTOM10) and includes an initial three-year period for rehabilitation and upgrade works, followed by long-term operation and maintenance.

    NWC said the contract was signed with a tariff of SR0.69 ($0.18) a cubic meter.

    As MEED understands, United Water will be responsible for design, financing, operation and part of the construction works. Saudi Arabia’s Armada Holding will handle construction, equipment import customs clearance and local business communications. UAE-registered Prosus Holding will act as the financial investor.

    LTOM packages

    The same consortium is also expected to sign a contract for Package 11 of the LTOM programme in the coming months.

    In April, MEED exclusively reported that the consortium won the contract for this project, which will have a combined capacity of about 440,000 cm/d.

    Bids for North Western B Cluster (LTOM12) remain under evaluation. The contract covers the construction and upgrade of seven STPs with a combined capacity of about 162,000 cm/d.

    NWC also tendered the Eastern A Cluster (LTOM14) package in April, covering the upgrade of six existing STPs with a capacity expansion of 30,000 cm/d at the Al-Jarodia STP.

    This will increase total treatment capacity from about 263,000 cm/d to approximately 293,000 cm/d, with an estimated cost of $180m.

    The bid submission deadline is 30 September.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19242964/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Iraq looks to accelerate oil pipeline projects

    2 September 2026

    Iraq’s Ministry of Oil has held talks with a delegation from Qatari company UCC on accelerating the progress of two major pipeline projects, according to a statement from Iraq’s Office of Media and Government Communication.

    The first proposed pipeline route extends from Basra, in southern Iraq, to Haditha, located about 200 kilometres northwest of Baghdad, then on to Faysh Khabur, which lies on the border with Syria and near the border with Turkiye.

    The second pipeline extends from Haditha to Syria’s coastal city of Baniyas.

    Discussions covered the contract type, implementation timeline and “other technical matters”, according to the statement released by the Iraqi government.

    During the meeting, Iraq’s Minister of Oil, Basem Mohammed Khudair Al-Abadi, emphasised the need to expedite the tendering process for the project contracts.

    He said all obstacles to progress on the projects needed to be eliminated.

    He also said weekly meetings will be held between relevant parties to reach agreements on the economic models for the pipelines and their routes.

    The Ministry of Oil said UCC is leading a consortium of companies developing the projects.

    It added that the consortium includes US-based Chevron, the investment company TI Capital and France’s TotalEnergies.

    In July, Iraq’s cabinet approved Basra Oil Company signing a ​heads of agreement and a non-disclosure agreement with the consortium to explore possible future oil pipeline projects.

    Under the terms of the agreement, the consortium will prepare technical and financial feasibility studies for strategic export pipeline projects.

    Also in July, US-based KBR was awarded a consultancy contract for the section of pipeline due to extend from Basra to Haditha.

    In April, Iraq announced the allocation of $1.5bn for the Basra-Haditha route, while the larger scheme is estimated at around $5bn.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19241649/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp