meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Resurging projects uplift UAE and Saudi economies

29 January 2024

 

The UAE and Saudi Arabia are almost neck-and-neck – with the UAE marginally in the lead – at the top of the MEED Economic Activity Index, which assesses the near-term economic health of regional markets.

In October 2023, both countries were forecast by the Washington-based IMF to grow at a region-beating rate of 4% in real GDP terms in 2024, though without taking into account the deepening of voluntary oil production cuts in November by half a dozen Opec+ countries, among them Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

In the Q4 Opec+ meeting, in addition to the voluntary cuts announced in April 2023 and extended until the end of 2024, Saudi Arabia and the UAE agreed to cut their oil production by a further 1 million barrels a day (b/d) and 163,000 b/d, respectively, until the end of Q1 2024.

The impact of these additional cuts, as well as the trailing of the oil price below the IMF’s forecast of $79.9 a barrel in 2024, remains to be seen, but – other factors notwithstanding – it should be negative.

In spite of this, some think tanks and ratings agencies have given both countries even more bullish real GDP projections since the start of the year. Aljazira Capital has forecast a 4.4% real GDP growth figure for Saudi Arabia in 2024 and ratings agency Moody’s has projected an even higher 4.6% growth rate.

Aljazira Capital stated that weaker oil revenues “would be offset by growth in non-oil revenues” from the private sector amid the implementation of non-oil spending programmes under Saudi Vision 2030.

For the UAE, ratings agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P) meanwhile forecast 5% growth in 2024 – also driven by the non-oil sector, which grew by 6% in 2023, led by hospitality, retail and financial services.

Beyond the headline figures, both countries are keeping their inflation and fiscal balance in check and have relatively contained unemployment levels. However, Saudi Arabia’s figures of 5.6% unemployment and 23.8% youth unemployment both remain well above average for the GCC countries.

Projects boom

Both countries have also seen a surge in projects activity. Together, they were responsible for the bulk of the $253bn in contracts that made 2023 a record year for regional project activity.

In Saudi Arabia, the total awards value for the year was 59% higher, rising to $95bn – double the long-term average value of project awards over the preceding 10 years. New work also outstripped project completions by a ratio of almost four to one, adding $70bn to the net value of projects under execution.

In the UAE, the value of project awards leapt by 175% to hit $81.5bn – a value almost close to double the long-term average. Significant project completions worth more than $48bn nevertheless weighed on the market and reduced the net change in the value of projects under execution to $33bn.

Other markets

The other GCC countries have mixed outlooks, with varying growth forecasts and projects market activity.

Qatar has a modest 2.2% growth projection for 2024 and has maintained recent project awards at a level matching the rate of completion of legacy projects, as well as the long-term award value average.

Kuwait’s economy was given a 2024 growth forecast of 3.6% by the IMF in October, after contracting in 2023, but this does not include the voluntary production cuts announced in November. The country’s projects market meanwhile continues to slip, with its 2023 awards sitting at just 76% of its average.

The revision of Oman’s 2024 growth forecast by the IMF in January provides a glimpse into the impact of the additional voluntary oil production cuts announced in November for Q1, with the country’s real GDP growth projection for the year having been revised down markedly from 2.7% to 1.4%. The country’s projects market is nevertheless largely holding its own, with its 2023 contract awards clocking in at 88% of the long-term average, even as completions slightly exceeded new awards.

Bahrain continues to struggle with a persistent fiscal deficit and deepening debt, and the squeezing of the country’s cash flow is being reflected in its sinking projects market. The $1.2bn in awards in 2023 flagged 32% behind completions and 65% below the market’s long-term average.

Morocco has increasingly emerged as one of the least troubled markets in the wider Middle East and North Africa region, with a solid 3.6% growth projection for its largely non-hydrocarbons economy. Inflation in the country has also been curbed and the $2.4bn in project awards in 2023 exceeded completions by 24%, despite dipping below the long-term average.

Egypt is heading into 2024 facing severe economic headwinds, with high inflation amid falling foreign exchange reserves and the looming prospect of a further currency devaluation, short of an IMF bailout. The country’s mounting fiscal trouble has been reflected by falling projects activity, with the $12.6bn in awards in 2023 being both below the level of completions and 44% below the long-term average.

Tunisia has a forecast of just 1.9% real GDP growth, but an unexpected burst of $1.5bn in project awards in 2023 boosted projects activity – with the value nearly double both completions and average awards.

Algeria, Iraq and Jordan face various headwinds, but chief among their problems is that their middling growth rates are insufficient to accommodate either their rising debt or double-digit unemployment. All three countries also had projects markets that underperformed in 2023, with award values below both the level of completions and long-term averages.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11466710/main1207.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • WEBINAR: Iraq Projects Market 2026

    20 May 2026

    Webinar: Iraq Projects Market 2026 
    Thursday 4 June | 11:00 AM GST  |  Register now

    Agenda:

    • Overview of the Iraq projects market landscape
    • 2025-26 projects market performance
    • Value of work awarded 2026 YTD
    • Assessment of key current and future projects
    • Key drivers, challenges and opportunities
    • Summary of the key clients, contractors and consultants
    • Size of future pipeline by sector and status
    • Ranking of the top contractors and clients
    • Short and long-term market outlook
    • Audience Q&A

    Hosted by: Edward James, head of content and analysis at MEED

    A well-known and respected thought leader in Mena affairs, Edward James has been with MEED for more than 19 years, working as a researcher, consultant and content director. Today, he heads up all content and research produced by the MEED group. His specific areas of expertise are construction, hydrocarbons, power and water, and the petrochemicals market. He is considered one of the world’s foremost experts on the Mena projects market. He is a regular guest commentator on Middle East issues for news channels such as the BBC, CNN and ABC News and is a regular speaker at events in the region. 

    Click here to register

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16925011/main.gif
    Edward James
  • Surbana Jurong to lead Jeddah airport expansion

    20 May 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Singapore-based engineering firm Surbana Jurong is expected to lead the future expansion and development plans of Jeddah Airports Company (Jedco).

    Surbana Jurong's group CEO, Sean Chiao, met with Jedco's CEO, Mazen Bin Mohammed Johar, earlier this week to explore expanded cooperation.

    The meeting focused on leveraging Surbana Jurong’s international expertise in delivering and managing major projects to help King Abdulaziz International airport (KAIA) scale towards more than 90 million passengers annually by 2030.

    Both sides also discussed talent development for Saudi engineers through Surbana Jurong Academy programmes, mentorship and participation in international airport projects, alongside establishing a joint governance framework and progressing towards a memorandum of understanding.

    Surbana Jurong is delivering project management consultancy services for over 100 capital projects at KAIA, valued at SR3bn ($800m).

    These upgrades will boost KAIA’s annual capacity from 29 million to 114 million passengers by 2030, supporting Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and National Aviation Strategy, and enhancing the experience for domestic travellers and millions of Hajj and Umrah pilgrims.

    According to data from regional project tracker MEED Projects, Surbana Jurong is involved in several major projects in the kingdom, including Red Sea Global's Amaala masterplan, the Trojena dams scheme, Oxagon, King Salman International airport and Saudi Arabia Railway's North-South Phosphate Railway 3.

    The firm has also been part of projects in the wider region, including the West Link project, Etihad high-speed rail and Abu Dhabi airport's Midfield Terminal.

    The firm has also secured masterplan project contracts from Abu Dhabi's Department of Municipalities & Transport and Abu Dhabi Ports.

    MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
    > BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
    > UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
    > POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia
    > WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
    > TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure push

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16922013/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Dubai seeks contractors for Metro Gold Line

    20 May 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dubai's Roads & Transport Authority (RTA) has invited contractors to express interest in a contract to build the new Gold Line, as part of its expansion of the Dubai Metro network.

    The notice was issued in mid-May with a submission deadline of 13 June.

    Dubai officially announced the launch of the new Gold Line in April.

    In a post on social media site X, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, UAE Vice President and Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai, said the project will cost about AED34bn ($9.2bn).

    The Gold Line will increase the total length of the Dubai Metro network by 35%.

    The project is scheduled for completion in September 2032.

    The Gold Line will be a fully underground network covering more than 42 kilometres, with 18 stations.

    It will pass through 15 areas in Dubai, benefiting 1.5 million residents.

    The project is expected to provide connectivity to over 55 under-construction real estate development projects.

    The Gold Line will start at Al-Ghubaiba in Bur Dubai and end at Jumeirah Golf Estates.

    It will be connected to Dubai Metro’s existing Red and Green lines and will integrate with the Etihad Rail passenger line.

    The contractor will be responsible for the design and build of all civil works, electromechanical equipment, rolling stock and rail systems.

    The selected contractor will also be required to assist in the systems maintenance and operations during an initial three-year period.

    In October last year, MEED exclusively reported that the RTA had selected US-based engineering firm Aecom to provide consultancy services for the Dubai Metro Gold Line project.

    Stage one covers concept design, stage two covers preliminary design, stage three covers the preparation of tender documents, stage four encompasses construction supervision and stage five covers the defects and liability period.

    MEED’s May 2026 report on the UAE includes:

    > COMMENT: Conflict tests UAE diversification
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: UAE economy absorbs multi-sector shock
    > BANKING: UAE banks ready to weather the storm
    > ATTACKS: UAE counts energy infrastructure costs
    > UPSTREAM: Adnoc builds long-term oil and gas production potential
    > DOWNSTREAM: Adnoc Gas to rally UAE downstream project spending
    > POWER: Large-scale IPPs drive UAE power market
    > WATER: UAE water investment broadens beyond desalination
    > CONSTRUCTION: War casts shadow over UAE construction boom
    > TRANSPORT: UAE rail momentum grows as trade routes face strain

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16919605/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Iraq oil exports drop by 89% in April

    20 May 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Iraq exported 10 million barrels of crude in April, an 89% drop compared to the 93 million barrels that were exported the month before the Iran conflict, according to the country’s new Oil Minister, Basim Mohammed Khudair.

    Oil exports generated just over $1bn in April, down from $6bn in February, according to a separate statement from the ministry.

    The decline in export volumes and revenues is due to the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the US and Israel’s war with Iran, which started on 28 February.

    The country is exporting crude by sea through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as from Kirkuk through the Iraq-Turkiye Pipeline (ITP).

    Iraq has plans to increase flows through the ITP to 500,000 barrels a day (b/d), according to Khudair.

    The minister said an increase in crude output from the north of the country depends on the return of global oil companies to the Kurdistan region.

    “The government is treating the energy file in the Kurdistan region as a priority,” he said.

    Many international companies in the Iraqi Kurdistan region suspended their operations in the wake of the US and Isreal attacking Iran on 28 February.

    Khudair said Iraq is currently producing a total of 1.4 million b/d of crude.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16913742/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Iraq risks defaulting on payments for $10bn oil project

    20 May 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Iraq’s state-owned upstream operator Basra Oil Company (BOC) risks defaulting on payments for the $27bn Gas Growth Integrated Project (GGIP) due to fallout from the US and Israel’s war with Iran.

    Phase one of the GGIP is expected to be worth about $10bn and BOC holds a 30% stake in the project, while its partners France’s TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy hold 45% and 25%, respectively.

    The consortium formalised the investment agreement with the Iraqi government in September 2021.

    As part of the investment agreement, BOC was expected to make payments to fund the development of the project and the money from these payments was expected to come from oil revenues.

    Due to disruption to the shipping of oil via the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the US and Israel’s war on Iran, which started on 28 February, BOC’s revenues from oil have declined significantly, impacting the company’s ability to provide funds for the project.

    BOC could default on payments for the project within four to six months if disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues, according to industry sources.

    BOC has already informed TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy that it is going though liquidity problems because it is unable to export normal volumes of oil, sources said.

    When contacted about the project’s financial issues, TotalEnergies referred MEED to comments made by the company’s chief executive Patrick Pouyanne on 29 April.

    He said: “We have maintained a team in Iraq, in Basra, of 20 TotalEnergies’ staff, who are supervising the progress of the GGIP projects on the ground, with around 5,000 workers there.”

    He added: “This conflict immediately has some impact on TotalEnergies' operations. And we have been, by the way, very transparent, since day one, to disclose all the impacts on our activities.”

    TotalEnergies declined to answer questions about potential changes to the schedule for the GGIP and whether there are alternative plans in place that provide for a situation where BOC could not deliver agreed funds.

    GGIP masterplan

    The GGIP programme is focused on developing four major projects in Iraq.

    These are:

    • The Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP)
    • The Ratawi gas processing complex
    • A 1GW solar power project for Iraq’s electricity ministry
    • A field development project at Ratawi, known as the Associated Gas Upstream Project (AGUP)

    The CSSP is designed to support oil production in Iraq’s southern oil and gas fields – mainly Zubair, Rumaila, Majnoon, West Qurna and Ratawi – by delivering treated seawater for injection, a method used to boost crude recovery rates and improve long-term reservoir performance.

    China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (CPECC) won a $1.61bn contract in May to execute engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) work for the gas processing complex at the Ratawi field development.

    CPECC’s project team based in its Dubai office is performing detailed engineering work on the project.

    In August last year, TotalEnergies awarded China Energy Engineering International Group the EPC contract for the 1GW solar project at the Ratawi field. A month later, QatarEnergy signed an agreement with TotalEnergies to acquire a 50% interest in the project.

    The 1GW Ratawi solar scheme will be developed in phases, with each phase coming online between 2025 and 2027. It will have the capacity to provide electricity to about 350,000 homes in Iraq’s Basra region.

    The project, consisting of 2 million bifacial solar panels mounted on single-axis trackers, will include the design, procurement, construction and commissioning of the photovoltaic power station site and 132kV booster station.

    Separately, in June, TotalEnergies awarded China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering an EPC contract worth $294m to build a pipeline as part of a package known as the Ratawi Gas Midstream Pipeline.

    Also, TotalEnergies awarded UK-based consultant Wood Group a pair of engineering framework agreements in April 2025, worth a combined $11m, under the GGIP scheme.

    The agreements have a three-year term under which Wood will support TotalEnergies in advancing the AGUP.

    One of the aims of the AGUP is to debottleneck and upgrade existing facilities to increase production capacity to 120,000 barrels a day of oil on completion of the first phase, according to a statement by Wood.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16913732/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp