meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Resurging projects uplift UAE and Saudi economies

29 January 2024

 

The UAE and Saudi Arabia are almost neck-and-neck – with the UAE marginally in the lead – at the top of the MEED Economic Activity Index, which assesses the near-term economic health of regional markets.

In October 2023, both countries were forecast by the Washington-based IMF to grow at a region-beating rate of 4% in real GDP terms in 2024, though without taking into account the deepening of voluntary oil production cuts in November by half a dozen Opec+ countries, among them Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

In the Q4 Opec+ meeting, in addition to the voluntary cuts announced in April 2023 and extended until the end of 2024, Saudi Arabia and the UAE agreed to cut their oil production by a further 1 million barrels a day (b/d) and 163,000 b/d, respectively, until the end of Q1 2024.

The impact of these additional cuts, as well as the trailing of the oil price below the IMF’s forecast of $79.9 a barrel in 2024, remains to be seen, but – other factors notwithstanding – it should be negative.

In spite of this, some think tanks and ratings agencies have given both countries even more bullish real GDP projections since the start of the year. Aljazira Capital has forecast a 4.4% real GDP growth figure for Saudi Arabia in 2024 and ratings agency Moody’s has projected an even higher 4.6% growth rate.

Aljazira Capital stated that weaker oil revenues “would be offset by growth in non-oil revenues” from the private sector amid the implementation of non-oil spending programmes under Saudi Vision 2030.

For the UAE, ratings agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P) meanwhile forecast 5% growth in 2024 – also driven by the non-oil sector, which grew by 6% in 2023, led by hospitality, retail and financial services.

Beyond the headline figures, both countries are keeping their inflation and fiscal balance in check and have relatively contained unemployment levels. However, Saudi Arabia’s figures of 5.6% unemployment and 23.8% youth unemployment both remain well above average for the GCC countries.

Projects boom

Both countries have also seen a surge in projects activity. Together, they were responsible for the bulk of the $253bn in contracts that made 2023 a record year for regional project activity.

In Saudi Arabia, the total awards value for the year was 59% higher, rising to $95bn – double the long-term average value of project awards over the preceding 10 years. New work also outstripped project completions by a ratio of almost four to one, adding $70bn to the net value of projects under execution.

In the UAE, the value of project awards leapt by 175% to hit $81.5bn – a value almost close to double the long-term average. Significant project completions worth more than $48bn nevertheless weighed on the market and reduced the net change in the value of projects under execution to $33bn.

Other markets

The other GCC countries have mixed outlooks, with varying growth forecasts and projects market activity.

Qatar has a modest 2.2% growth projection for 2024 and has maintained recent project awards at a level matching the rate of completion of legacy projects, as well as the long-term award value average.

Kuwait’s economy was given a 2024 growth forecast of 3.6% by the IMF in October, after contracting in 2023, but this does not include the voluntary production cuts announced in November. The country’s projects market meanwhile continues to slip, with its 2023 awards sitting at just 76% of its average.

The revision of Oman’s 2024 growth forecast by the IMF in January provides a glimpse into the impact of the additional voluntary oil production cuts announced in November for Q1, with the country’s real GDP growth projection for the year having been revised down markedly from 2.7% to 1.4%. The country’s projects market is nevertheless largely holding its own, with its 2023 contract awards clocking in at 88% of the long-term average, even as completions slightly exceeded new awards.

Bahrain continues to struggle with a persistent fiscal deficit and deepening debt, and the squeezing of the country’s cash flow is being reflected in its sinking projects market. The $1.2bn in awards in 2023 flagged 32% behind completions and 65% below the market’s long-term average.

Morocco has increasingly emerged as one of the least troubled markets in the wider Middle East and North Africa region, with a solid 3.6% growth projection for its largely non-hydrocarbons economy. Inflation in the country has also been curbed and the $2.4bn in project awards in 2023 exceeded completions by 24%, despite dipping below the long-term average.

Egypt is heading into 2024 facing severe economic headwinds, with high inflation amid falling foreign exchange reserves and the looming prospect of a further currency devaluation, short of an IMF bailout. The country’s mounting fiscal trouble has been reflected by falling projects activity, with the $12.6bn in awards in 2023 being both below the level of completions and 44% below the long-term average.

Tunisia has a forecast of just 1.9% real GDP growth, but an unexpected burst of $1.5bn in project awards in 2023 boosted projects activity – with the value nearly double both completions and average awards.

Algeria, Iraq and Jordan face various headwinds, but chief among their problems is that their middling growth rates are insufficient to accommodate either their rising debt or double-digit unemployment. All three countries also had projects markets that underperformed in 2023, with award values below both the level of completions and long-term averages.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11466710/main1207.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Oil tankers attacked in Iraqi waters

    12 March 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Two tankers carrying Iraqi oil products were set on fire after being attacked in Iraq’s territorial waters near the country’s southern export terminals, increasing concerns about global energy supplies.

    After the attack, the country’s Oil Ministry said that it saw the attacks as “a worrying indicator of escalating tensions in a vital area of the global economy and energy supply”.

    It added that “the safety and safety of navigation in international sea corridors and energy supply routes should be kept away from regional conflicts”.

    The Oil Ministry said the attacks had a direct impact on the stability of the global economy and energy markets, as well as putting the lives of civilians and workers in the maritime transport sector at risk.

    Farhan Al-Fartousi, from Iraq’s General Company for Ports, told state television that one crew member had been killed in the attack and that 38 crew members had been rescued.

    Iraq’s state-owned oil marketing company Somo said that the Maltese-flagged oil tanker Zefyros was attacked as it was preparing to enter the port of Khor Al-Zoubair, where it would have taken on board an additional 30,000 tonnes of liquid naphtha.

    The second targeted vessel, Safesea Vishnu, was sailing under the Marshall Islands flag and was chartered by an Iraqi company, according to Somo.

    Iraq’s oil production has fallen steeply since the conflict began, from 3.3 million barrels a day (b/d) to less than 1 million b/d.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15951323/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Chevron yet to agree terms for Iraq oil field takeover

    12 March 2026

     

    US-based oil company Chevron is yet to agree terms with Iraqi state-owned Basra Oil Company (BOC) for its potential takeover of Iraq’s West Qurna-2 oil field, according to industry sources.

    Last month, Chevron signed a preliminary agreement with BOC to explore taking control of the West Qurna-2 oil field.

    Until recently, West Qurna-2 was operated by Russia’s Lukoil, which faces a 28 February deadline to divest its assets in Iraq under sanctions.

    One industry source said: “Chevron is yet to agree terms, and it has made it clear that it wants different terms to the contract that Lukoil had.”

    In January, Iraq’s cabinet approved temporarily nationalising petroleum operations at the West Qurna-2 oil field until a new operator was found.

    Lukoil declared force majeure at the West Qurna-2 oil field in November, after sanctions by the UK, EU and US were announced in October.

    The Russian company had a 75% stake in the asset.      

    Prior to Russia’s Lukoil declaring force majeure, Iraq’s state oil authorities froze all cash and crude payments to Lukoil in compliance with the sanctions.

    In a statement released on 1 December 2025, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said that it had extended “direct and exclusive invitations to a number of major American oil companies”.

    Awarded to Lukoil in 2009, West Qurna-2 lies about 65 kilometres northwest of Basra in southern Iraq and produces about 480,000 barrels a day (b/d) of oil, accounting for roughly 10% of the country’s total oil output.

    At the same meeting on 23 February, Chevron also signed a deal relating to the development of the Nasiriyah field, four exploration sites in the province of Dhi Qar and a field in the province of Salahaddin.

    Chevron signed an agreement in principle with Iraq in August 2025 to develop the Nasiriyah oil project in the province of Dhi Qar.

    At the time, Iraq said it expected the Nasiriyah project to reach a production capacity of 600,000 b/d within seven years.

    READ THE MARCH 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Riyadh urges private sector to take greater role; Chemical players look to spend rationally; Economic uptick lends confidence to Cairo’s reforms.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the March 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15944830/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Egyptian/Saudi firms to invest $1.4bn in Cairo project

    12 March 2026

    Saudi Arabia’s Sumou Investment, through its subsidiary Adeer International, and Egyptian developer Paragon Developments have signed an agreement to jointly develop a mixed-use project in Mostakbal City, East Cairo.

    According to local media reports, the project will cover about 500,000 square metres and will be developed with a total investment of about $1.4bn.

    The project will be developed by Paragon-Adeer, a joint venture of Paragon Developments and Adeer International.

    The announcement follows a $1.4bn deal signed in July last year between Adeer International and another Egyptian developer, Midar, to jointly develop a mixed-use project in Mostakbal City.

    Midar, Sumou Investment and Hassan Allam Properties are partnering to develop $2bn in hospitality and leisure projects across several locations in Cairo within Midar-owned land parcels. 

    According to GlobalData, Egypt’s residential construction sector is expected to grow by 8.3% from 2026 to 2029, supported by investments in the housing sector and the government’s focus on addressing the country’s growing housing deficit amid a rising population.

    The commercial construction sector is expected to register real-term growth of 6.6% during 2026-29, supported by a rebound in tourism and hospitality markets and an improvement in investment in office buildings and wholesale and retail trade activities.

    MEED’s March 2026 report on Egypt includes:

    > COMMENT: Egypt’s crisis mode gives way to cautious revival
    > GOVERNMENT: Egypt adapts its foreign policy approach
    > ECONOMY & BANKING: Egypt nears return to economic stability
    > OIL & GAS: Egypt’s oil and gas sector shows bright spots
    > POWER & WATER: Egypt utility contracts hit $5bn decade peak
    > CONSTRUCTION: Coastal destinations are a boon to Egyptian construction

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15939746/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Qiddiya gives high-speed rail prequalifying firms more time

    12 March 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City, in collaboration with Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP, has set a new deadline of 16 April for firms to submit prequalification statements for the development of the Qiddiya high-speed rail project in Riyadh

    The prequalification notice was issued on 19 January, with an initial submission deadline of 17 March.

    The clients are considering delivering the project using either a public-private partnership (PPP) model or an engineering, procurement, construction and financing (EPCF) basis.

    Firms have been asked to prequalify for one of the two models.

    Last month, the clients invited interested firms to a project briefing session on 23 February at Qiddiya Entertainment City.

    The Qiddiya high-speed rail project will connect King Salman International airport and the King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) in Riyadh with Qiddiya City.

    Also known as Q-Express, the railway line will operate at speeds of up to 250 kilometres an hour, reaching Qiddiya in 30 minutes.

    The line is expected to be developed in two phases. The first phase will connect Qiddiya with KAFD and King Khalid International airport.

    The second phase will start from a development known as the North Pole and travel to the New Murabba development, King Salman Park, central Riyadh and Industrial City in the south of Riyadh. 

    In November last year, MEED reported that more than 145 local and international companies had expressed interest in developing the project.

    These included 68 contracting companies, 23 design and project management consultants, 16 investment firms, 12 rail operators, 10 rolling stock providers and 16 other services firms.

    In November 2023, MEED reported that French consultant Egis had been appointed as the technical adviser for the project.

    UK-based consultancy Ernst & Young is acting as the transaction adviser on the project. Ashurst is the legal adviser.

    Qiddiya is one of Saudi Arabia’s five official gigaprojects and covers a total area of 376 square kilometres (sq km), with 223 sq km of developed land. 

    READ THE MARCH 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Riyadh urges private sector to take greater role; Chemical players look to spend rationally; Economic uptick lends confidence to Cairo’s reforms.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the March 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15939059/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Wynn resumes construction on Ras Al-Khaimah project

    12 March 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    US-based Wynn Resorts said on 11 March that site activity on its resort project on Ras Al-Khaimah’s Al-Marjan Island has restarted after work was temporarily halted. New measures are in place to ensure the safety and security of the workforce. 

    “Wynn employees have been offered the opportunity to work from abroad, if their home embassy recommends they do so,” the company added.

    The $5.1bn project involves the construction of an integrated resort with 1,500 rooms, high-end shopping, MICE venues and the UAE’s first confirmed gaming area. It is scheduled to open in spring 2027.

    The 70-floor 283-metre-tall main structure was topped out in December 2025.

    Financially, Wynn Resorts holds a 40% equity stake in the joint-venture development company alongside local partners Marjan and RAK Hospitality Holding. Wynn reported in late 2025 that about two-thirds of the project’s budget had already been spent or contractually committed, which provides a degree of protection against fluctuating material costs.

    In 2025, Wynn Resorts said it had secured a $2.4bn construction facility to finance the development of the project. In a statement at the time, Wynn said the financing is the largest hospitality financing transaction in UAE history. The loan, available to Wynn Al-Marjan Island FZ-LLC – a subsidiary of the 40%-owned joint venture – is denominated in both AED and US dollars.

    Structured as a delayed draw facility, the seven-year term loan offers competitive market interest rates and substantial financial flexibility for the joint-venture partners.

    The syndicate includes prominent regional and international banks, with Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and Deutsche Bank serving as joint coordinators. The joint coordinators, along with First Abu Dhabi Bank, Emirates NBD Capital and the National Bank of Ras Al-Khaimah, acted as mandated lead arrangers, bookrunners and underwriters, and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation acted as lead arranger. First Abu Dhabi Bank is also the agent and security agent for the lenders.

    Dubai-based Alec was appointed as the project’s main contractor in 2023. Earlier in March, Alec said it had resumed on-site and in-office operations across its UAE projects from 4 March.

    In a statement, the company said that it is working closely with clients to ensure a prompt and safe return to full-scale activity.

    The move follows a temporary work-from-home policy introduced across the company’s UAE operations in response to ongoing events, as Alec Holdings reaffirmed its commitment to protecting its workforce while continuing to deliver in clients’ best interests.

    During the same period, the company said its operations in Saudi Arabia remained fully operational.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15952339/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman