meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Resurging projects uplift UAE and Saudi economies

29 January 2024

 

The UAE and Saudi Arabia are almost neck-and-neck – with the UAE marginally in the lead – at the top of the MEED Economic Activity Index, which assesses the near-term economic health of regional markets.

In October 2023, both countries were forecast by the Washington-based IMF to grow at a region-beating rate of 4% in real GDP terms in 2024, though without taking into account the deepening of voluntary oil production cuts in November by half a dozen Opec+ countries, among them Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

In the Q4 Opec+ meeting, in addition to the voluntary cuts announced in April 2023 and extended until the end of 2024, Saudi Arabia and the UAE agreed to cut their oil production by a further 1 million barrels a day (b/d) and 163,000 b/d, respectively, until the end of Q1 2024.

The impact of these additional cuts, as well as the trailing of the oil price below the IMF’s forecast of $79.9 a barrel in 2024, remains to be seen, but – other factors notwithstanding – it should be negative.

In spite of this, some think tanks and ratings agencies have given both countries even more bullish real GDP projections since the start of the year. Aljazira Capital has forecast a 4.4% real GDP growth figure for Saudi Arabia in 2024 and ratings agency Moody’s has projected an even higher 4.6% growth rate.

Aljazira Capital stated that weaker oil revenues “would be offset by growth in non-oil revenues” from the private sector amid the implementation of non-oil spending programmes under Saudi Vision 2030.

For the UAE, ratings agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P) meanwhile forecast 5% growth in 2024 – also driven by the non-oil sector, which grew by 6% in 2023, led by hospitality, retail and financial services.

Beyond the headline figures, both countries are keeping their inflation and fiscal balance in check and have relatively contained unemployment levels. However, Saudi Arabia’s figures of 5.6% unemployment and 23.8% youth unemployment both remain well above average for the GCC countries.

Projects boom

Both countries have also seen a surge in projects activity. Together, they were responsible for the bulk of the $253bn in contracts that made 2023 a record year for regional project activity.

In Saudi Arabia, the total awards value for the year was 59% higher, rising to $95bn – double the long-term average value of project awards over the preceding 10 years. New work also outstripped project completions by a ratio of almost four to one, adding $70bn to the net value of projects under execution.

In the UAE, the value of project awards leapt by 175% to hit $81.5bn – a value almost close to double the long-term average. Significant project completions worth more than $48bn nevertheless weighed on the market and reduced the net change in the value of projects under execution to $33bn.

Other markets

The other GCC countries have mixed outlooks, with varying growth forecasts and projects market activity.

Qatar has a modest 2.2% growth projection for 2024 and has maintained recent project awards at a level matching the rate of completion of legacy projects, as well as the long-term award value average.

Kuwait’s economy was given a 2024 growth forecast of 3.6% by the IMF in October, after contracting in 2023, but this does not include the voluntary production cuts announced in November. The country’s projects market meanwhile continues to slip, with its 2023 awards sitting at just 76% of its average.

The revision of Oman’s 2024 growth forecast by the IMF in January provides a glimpse into the impact of the additional voluntary oil production cuts announced in November for Q1, with the country’s real GDP growth projection for the year having been revised down markedly from 2.7% to 1.4%. The country’s projects market is nevertheless largely holding its own, with its 2023 contract awards clocking in at 88% of the long-term average, even as completions slightly exceeded new awards.

Bahrain continues to struggle with a persistent fiscal deficit and deepening debt, and the squeezing of the country’s cash flow is being reflected in its sinking projects market. The $1.2bn in awards in 2023 flagged 32% behind completions and 65% below the market’s long-term average.

Morocco has increasingly emerged as one of the least troubled markets in the wider Middle East and North Africa region, with a solid 3.6% growth projection for its largely non-hydrocarbons economy. Inflation in the country has also been curbed and the $2.4bn in project awards in 2023 exceeded completions by 24%, despite dipping below the long-term average.

Egypt is heading into 2024 facing severe economic headwinds, with high inflation amid falling foreign exchange reserves and the looming prospect of a further currency devaluation, short of an IMF bailout. The country’s mounting fiscal trouble has been reflected by falling projects activity, with the $12.6bn in awards in 2023 being both below the level of completions and 44% below the long-term average.

Tunisia has a forecast of just 1.9% real GDP growth, but an unexpected burst of $1.5bn in project awards in 2023 boosted projects activity – with the value nearly double both completions and average awards.

Algeria, Iraq and Jordan face various headwinds, but chief among their problems is that their middling growth rates are insufficient to accommodate either their rising debt or double-digit unemployment. All three countries also had projects markets that underperformed in 2023, with award values below both the level of completions and long-term averages.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11466710/main1207.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Emirates awards $5bn engineering complex deal

    18 May 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Emirates Airline has awarded a AED19bn ($5bn) contract to build one of the world's largest engineering complexes in Dubai South.

    The contract was awarded to Beijing-headquartered China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC).

    CRCC is being supported by French firm Artelia, as the project consultant.

    The complex will cover over 1 million square metres (sq m).

    It will comprise 77,000 sq m of dedicated workshop space for maintenance and repairs, 380,000 sq m of storage and logistics capacity, a 50,000 sq m administrative building for Emirates Engineering and 15,000 sq m of training facilities.

    It will be the world's only complex with a capacity to service 28 wide-body aircraft simultaneously.

    The airline officially broke ground on the project on 18 May. 

    The groundbreaking ceremony was attended by Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al-Maktoum, chairman and CEO of Emirates Group; Tim Clark, president of Emirates Airline; Khalifa Al-Zaffin, executive chairman of Dubai Aviation City Corporation and Dubai South; and Dai Hegen, chairman of CRCC.

    The facility will enable large-scale retrofits, cabin redesigns and structural modifications to be performed in-house, thereby reducing turnaround times.

    The engineering complex is scheduled for completion in 2030 and will be located at Al-Maktoum International airport.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16895218/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Contractors submit King Salman Bay project interest

    18 May 2026

     

    Contractors submitted expressions of interest in April for a contract to undertake marine infrastructure works at King Salman Bay, on the Red Sea coast north of Jeddah.

    The scope includes dredging and earthworks, as well as quay wall and edge protection works spanning about 11 kilometres (km).

    The project client is gigaproject developer Red Sea Global (RSG).

    The invited firms include:

    • Archirodon (Greece)
    • Boskalis (Netherlands)
    • China Harbour Engineering Company (China)
    • Jan de Nul (Netherlands)
    • Modern Building Leaders (local)
    • Nesma & Partners (local)
    • NMDC Group (UAE)

    King Salman Bay is expected to be a waterfront development aimed at reshaping the city’s northern Red Sea frontage into a mixed-use destination anchored by public realm improvements and leisure-led development.

    The update follows RSG’s award of an estimated SR100m ($27m) contract to construct a solid waste management centre at its Red Sea Project. The scope includes four buildings: a material recycling facility, a transfer station, an administration building and a vehicle maintenance building.

    In October last year, MEED reported that RSG had secured a SR6.5bn ($1.7bn) credit facility to further develop Amaala, its luxury tourism destination on Saudi Arabia’s northwestern Red Sea coast.

    According to an official statement, “The funding is led by Riyad Bank as the sole underwriter, along with Saudi Investment Bank and Bank Al-Bilad as mandated lead arrangers.

    “The loan arrangement comprises a mix of conventional and Islamic financing and adheres to RSG’s Green Loan Framework, which was first established when it secured private funding from a consortium of four banks for the Red Sea destination in 2021,” the statement added.

    The announcement followed RSG’s opening of its first properties for sale at Amaala, including branded residential communities and a five-bedroom villa on a private island.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16894122/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi Arabia tenders Mecca metro design

    18 May 2026

     

    The Royal Commission for Makkah City & Holy Sites (RCMC) has tendered a contract inviting firms to undertake initial design studies for its long-planned metro network in the holy city.

    The scope includes the review of existing studies, preparing a concept design, land acquisition studies, future phases integration concept and other related studies.

    The notice was issued earlier this month, with a submission deadline of 5 August.

    The latest development follows RCMC’s invitation to contractors to attend an early market engagement meeting for the project in September last year, as MEED reported.

    In an explanatory document inviting companies to attend the event, the RCMC’s General Transport Centre said it was seeking to gauge market interest in the multibillion-dollar project and obtain feedback on its proposed procurement approach.

    MEED exclusively reported in June last year that the project was restarting. Current plans envisage a four-line network, named lines A-D, with 89 stations and three depots, to be implemented over three phases between 2032 and 2045.

    Project scope

    Stage 1 focuses on lines B and C, involving 2.4 kilometres of tunnelling under the Masar project and integration with the existing Mashaer line.

    The network will run just over 62km and comprise 31 stations, 21 of which will be underground, including three iconic stations. A total of 19.5km will run through tunnels, while 41.2km will be elevated, with the remainder at grade.

    The 66 required trainsets are projected to provide a daily passenger capacity of about 450,000, equating to annual ridership of 171 million.

    The 84.7km-long second phase, due to be operational by 2038, will extend the two lines towards the outskirts of Mecca and includes construction of the initial inner and central segments of lines A and D.

    Comprising 61.1km elevated and 18.6km underground, Phase 2 is planned to add 45 stations serving the two new lines, as well as two depots and a potential interconnection with the planned Saudi Landbridge. The 59 trainsets for Phase 2 will increase the network’s projected total annual passenger capacity to more than 500 million.

    Phase 3 covers the elevated 36km extension of lines A and D and involves procurement of a further 72 trainsets, increasing the network’s ultimate passenger capacity to 1.2 million daily and 642 million annually by completion in 2045.

    Associated development

    The metro plan also envisages several transit-oriented developments (TODs) at different points on the route. These will typically comprise commercial, residential and retail elements to maximise the investment case.

    The client’s proposed procurement approach involves three distinct packages: civil and systems works, TODs, and operations and maintenance.

    The initial concept calls for some of the project to be delivered on a public-private partnership (PPP) basis, wherein the private sector, through special purpose vehicles, will part-finance, build, operate and then transfer commercially viable elements of the scheme.

    The then-called Mecca Mass Rail Transit Company (MMRTC) first launched the metro project in 2013; however, the scheme has faltered for more than a decade due to funding issues, land acquisition challenges and scope changes.

    The relaunch of the procurement process raises hopes that the project will now come to fruition, although it is likely to be at least 18 months before any definitive works are expected to start.

    Mecca is home to Saudi Arabia’s first metro, the nine-station, 18km-long Mashaer line, which opened in 2010. It operates only seven days a year during Hajj, but carries more than 2 million pilgrims during that time.

    Some 30 million pilgrims visit the city each year, with this number set to grow. The presence of a known, quantifiable and growing demand base will help facilitate the use of a PPP mechanism should the framework be adopted.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16893520/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Montage launches Ras El-Hekma hotel and residences project

    18 May 2026

    Abu Dhabi-listed Modon Holding has partnered with US-based hotel operator Montage Hotels & Resorts to launch Montage Ras El-Hekma, a new project within the Ras El-Hekma master development on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast.

    The Montage development will be situated in Wadi Yemm, the first of 17 planned precincts to move into active delivery.

    Wadi Yemm is a mixed-use cultural and hospitality district, anchored by the Ras El-Hekma Lighthouse and a 10,000-seat amphitheatre designed to host cultural and entertainment programming.

    Montage Ras El-Hekma is expected to feature approximately 200 guestrooms and suites, along with 96 branded villas.

    The villas will range from three to six bedrooms and will mark the first branded residences available for purchase at Ras El-Hekma, according to Modon.

    No construction budget or project handover timeline was provided.

    Ras El-Hekma is on a spur of land on Egypt’s northern Mediterranean coastline, about 240 kilometres west of Alexandria.

    Abu Dhabi-based holding company ADQ appointed Modon Holding as the master developer for the Ras El-Hekma project in 2024.

    Modon will act as the master developer for the entire development, covering more than 170 million sq m. 

    Modon Holding will develop the first phase of the project, which will cover 50 million sq m.

    The remaining 120 million sq m will be developed in partnership with private developers under the supervision of the recently established ADQ subsidiary Ras El-Hekma Urban Development Project Company and Modon Holding.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16893415/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Bahrain completes repairs to chemical plant after Iran strike

    18 May 2026

    Repair and remediation work has been completed at the Gulf Petrochemical Industries Company (GPIC) facility in Bahrain, according to a statement from the country’s Ministry of Interior.

    The repairs and clean-up operation were focused on damage caused by an Iranian drone strike on 5 April, the ministry said.

    It also said that the strike was an act of aggression that constituted a war crime.

    Prior to the repair works, an Iranian drone was lodged inside an ammonia storage tank at the facility, which had become a “grave and ongoing risk”, according to the ministry statement.

    The ministry noted that, were it not for the swift pre-emptive measures taken by Bahrain’s government as part of its broader efforts to strengthen civil protection, the consequences could have been catastrophic.

    It said that an ammonia leak would have spread across several kilometres, causing mass casualties and threatening the lives of civilians in the surrounding areas.

    The ministry commended GPIC for its proactive decision to drain the ammonia tank prior to intervention — a critical step given the tank’s location in a densely populated area.

    All residents evacuated from the surrounding area have now returned to their homes.

    The evacuation, which covered a two-kilometre radius, was carried out on a voluntary basis, with temporary alternative housing provided as a precautionary measure.

    GPIC manufactures ammonia, methanol and urea.

    It operates as a joint venture equally owned by Bapco Energies of Bahrain, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait’s Petrochemical Industries Company (PIC).

    The facility that was attacked is located in the Sitra region of Bahrain.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16892300/main.png
    Wil Crisp