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Region to continue robust spending on oil and gas

29 December 2024

 

The upstream oil and gas industry in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region recorded more than $53bn of capital expenditure (capex) on oil and gas production projects in 2023. 

It was forecast that the sector might never repeat that level of spending on engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts, especially with hydrocarbons producers striving to achieve their net-zero carbon emissions goals and broader sustainability commitments.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) led capex on Mena production projects in 2023, largely due to its $17bn spending on the Hail and Ghasha offshore sour gas development project.

Saudi Aramco was the second-largest spender in the region in 2023, on the back of the estimated $10bn-worth of EPC contracts it awarded for the second expansion phase of its Jafurah unconventional gas development. It also maintained spending on offshore field upgrade works, awarding about $5.3bn-worth of engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) contracts.

Yet upstream project spending in 2024 year-to-date has surpassed 2023’s level, with Mena hydrocarbons producers collectively spending more than $58bn on oil and gas production capacity maintenance and expansion projects.

Record year

Iran emerged as the largest spender in the Mena upstream sector in 2024, with the country’s capex exceeding $22bn. State-owned Pars Oil & Gas Company spent $20bn on EPC contracts in March, on a project to boost gas output capacity at the South Pars field.

Iran shares the South Pars field with Qatar, where it is known as North Field. The natural gas reserve in the Gulf’s waters is estimated to hold 1,800 trillion cubic feet of gas and 50 billion barrels of condensates.

Pars Oil & Gas Company aims to produce 90 trillion cubic feet of gas and 2 billion barrels of condensates from the latest expansion phase of the South Pars field development. The company expects to generate $900bn in total revenues from the expansion project.

Qatar was the second-largest spender in the region in 2024, with state enterprise QatarEnergy advancing its North Field production sustainability (NFPS) project, which aims to support its liquefied natural gas (LNG) expansion programme with gas feedstock.

QatarEnergy LNG, a subsidiary of QatarEnergy, awarded Italian contractor Saipem an estimated $4bn EPCI contract in September as part of the second phase of its NFPS project.

Saipem was awarded two packages, the scope of which encompasses EPCI work on a total of six platforms, approximately 100 kilometres (km) of corrosion resistance alloy rigid subsea pipelines of 28-inches and 24-inches diameter, 100km of subsea composite cables, 150km of fibre optic cables and several other subsea units.

Separately, in January, Qatar’s North Oil Company awarded $6bn-worth of contracts for four engineering, procurement, construction, installation and commissioning packages on a project to increase oil production from its Al-Shaheen offshore oil field by about 100,000 barrels a day (b/d).

The project, known as Ruya, is the third capacity-expansion phase of the Al-Shaheen oil field, which has a production potential of 300,000 b/d at present. North Oil Company – a joint venture of QatarEnergy (70%) and France’s TotalEnergies (30%), which has been the operator of Al-Shaheen since July 2017 – aims to increase the field’s output through the Ruya project.

Saudi offshore spending

In late January 2024, the Saudi Energy Ministry directed Aramco to abandon its campaign to expand its oil production spare capacity from 12 million b/d to 13 million b/d by 2027. As a consequence, Aramco cancelled the tendering process for at least 15 tenders involving the EPCI of structures at offshore oil and gas fields.

Since that decision, however, Aramco has gone the other way, spending an estimated $4.5bn in 2024 on offshore EPCI contracts, known in the Aramco ecosystem as CRPOs. 

Saipem has been the biggest beneficiary of Aramco’s offshore spending, winning all of the CRPOs awarded in 2024. In early May, Aramco awarded the contractor CRPO 143, which involves replacing an oil line between the Berri and Manifa oil fields in the kingdom’s Gulf waters.

Aramco then awarded Saipem the contract for CRPO 138, which involves laying a trunkline at the Abu Safah offshore field. The contract is estimated to be worth $500m. 

The firm then scooped three major CRPOs in August, starting with CRPOs 132 and 139, the combined value of which is estimated to be about $1bn. In early September, Saipem began work on the two contracts, which involve the EPCI of structures to upgrade the Marjan, Zuluf and Safaniya offshore field developments.

Just days later, Aramco awarded Saipem CRPO 127, a $2bn contract that involves EPCI of topsides and jackets for wellhead platforms, a tie-in platform jacket and topside, rigid flowlines, submarine composite cables and fibre optic cables at the Marjan oil and gas field.

Jafurah development

Aramco has also made swift progress in 2024 on successive expansion phases of its programme to produce and process gas from the Jafurah unconventional development in Saudi Arabia. Spending on the Jafurah expansion projects, along with offshore contracts, helped to make the kingdom the third-biggest upstream spender in the Mena region.

Aramco awarded contracts on 30 June for the Jafurah second expansion phase, which aims to raise processing potential to up to 2 billion cubic feet a day (cf/d) of raw gas. Aramco awarded 16 contracts, worth about $12.4bn, for EPC works and drilling services for the second expansion phase.

Within weeks of those awards, a consortium of Spanish contractor Tecnicas Reunidas and China’s Sinopec Group announced that it had been selected by Aramco to carry out EPC works on the third expansion phase at Jafurah, worth $2.24bn. The EPC scope mainly covers building three gas compression plants, each capable of processing 200 million cf/d. Aramco officially awarded the contract to the Tecnicas Reunidas/Sinopec consortium in late September.

Capex to hold steady

While the Mena upstream oil and gas industry may not be able to match its 2024 level of project capex in 2025, the sector is expected to maintain a robust level of spending, especially with national energy companies striving to achieve their strategic long-term oil and gas production capacity goals before the end of the decade.

Data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects suggests that the Mena upstream sector could invest about $40bn on projects in 2025, with gas output expansion schemes predicted to dominate spending.

In line with its target to increase gas production by 60% by 2030, with 2021 as its baseline, Aramco is on course to further advance its Jafurah unconventional gas production programme. It issued the main EPC tender for the fourth expansion phase of the programme in July, within days of selecting the main contractors for the third phase.

Contractors are preparing bids for the project, the scope of which is similar to that of the third expansion phase, and which is therefore understood to be valued at $2.5bn.

Saudi Arabia’s spending on offshore brownfield and greenfield EPCI contracts is set to remain high, with the tendering process under way for eight more Aramco CRPOs.

Four tenders were issued in August for CRPOs 149, 150, 152 and 153, which cover the EPCI works on the Arabiyah, Hasbah and Marjan offshore oil field developments. Of the four CRPOs, contractors in Saudi Aramco’s Long-Term Agreement (LTA) pool have submitted bids for 149, 152 and 153. 

Separately, LTA contractors are also preparing bids for four tenders worth a total of $4bn, which will further expand the Zuluf offshore field development.

Meanwhile, Iran is expected to give shape to its plan for gas extraction from its North Pars field, along with raising output from its onshore and offshore oil fields. Increasing production is vital for Tehran in order to maintain steady volumes of exports to earn vital revenue for its economy, which has been crippled by years of international sanctions.

Pars Oil & Gas Company is estimated to have allocated $15bn to the North Pars gas field development project. However, with the project being in the study phase, and with Iran’s cash-strapped government barely able to provide support to its population, the scheme could see little to no progress in 2025.

In the UAE, with the deadline approaching for Adnoc’s target of raising crude output capacity to 5 million b/d by 2027, it is anticipated that the company will funnel billions of dollars into increasing the production potential of its onshore and offshore oil fields. 

Adnoc Group subsidiary Adnoc Offshore is evaluating bids for three packages of a multibillion-dollar project to boost oil production at the Lower Zakum offshore hydrocarbons concession in Abu Dhabi. The goal of the first phase of the Lower Zakum long-term development plan is to raise the asset’s output capacity to 520,000 b/d by 2027 and maintain that level until 2034. 

Adnoc Offshore has also started the tendering exercise for front-end engineering and design work on the second expansion phase of the Umm Shaif offshore oil field.

Another Adnoc Group subsidiary, Adnoc Onshore, has made a significant capex investment in growing crude output from its main Bab, Northeast Bab, Bu Hasa and Southeast fields. As a result, it is on course to award more contracts in 2025 to maintain and eventually increase output from these fields through its P5 projects, which aim to achieve an oil production potential of 5 million b/d by 2027. 

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Indrajit Sen

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    Emirates and Etihad Airways both moved to address the insurance gap directly ahead of the FCDO change. On 17 June, Emirates launched a comprehensive travel cover product developed in partnership with insurance provider Travel Guard, offering medical cover for conflict-related incidents, trip cancellation cover, compensation for baggage delay or loss, and unlimited medical expense and emergency evacuation cover worldwide. The product is available across 27 markets.

    Emirates also committed to rebooking disrupted customers at no additional cost where flights have been cancelled due to conflict-related disruption, including itineraries connecting on other carriers.

    Arrivals data

    Data from UK-based analytics firm GlobalData illustrates both the scale of the expected contraction and the strength of the projected recovery. UAE international arrivals, which reached approximately 30 million in 2025, are forecast to fall to about 26.4 million in 2026 – a decline of roughly 12% – before rebounding sharply to 32.1 million in 2027. 

    GlobalData’s projections then show continued growth to about 33.5 million in 2028, 35.1 million in 2029 and 36.6 million by 2030. 

    On that trajectory, arrivals would exceed pre-conflict levels within a single year of recovery and surpass 2025 figures by more than 7% in 2027 alone.

    The GlobalData numbers place the 2026 contraction in a longer historical context. UAE arrivals grew almost uninterrupted from 8.4 million in 2009 to 25.6 million in 2019, before collapsing to 8.4 million in 2020 at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. The subsequent recovery was among the fastest recorded for any major destination: arrivals reached 22 million in 2022, crossed 26.3 million in 2023 and climbed to 28.7 million in 2024 before the 2025 peak. 

    That precedent – a two-thirds collapse followed by full recovery within three years – underpins the confidence embedded in GlobalData’s post-conflict forecast, which projects a return to growth momentum by 2027 and a trajectory that would deliver 36.6 million arrivals by 2030.

    The near-term contraction nevertheless remains substantial. A decline from approximately 30 million to 26.4 million in a single year represents the sharpest drop in UAE arrivals outside the pandemic, and it comes at a point when the sector had been tracking well ahead of pre-pandemic levels.

    Past experience

    Historical precedent from comparable disruptions points to a consistent pattern: recovery shape is determined less by the severity of the initial decline than by the duration of the disrupting event and the speed at which the perception of the source market resets.

    Single-event incidents with clear endpoints and no sustained security overhang have historically produced the fastest recoveries, with arrivals returning to trend within 12 months. Sustained conflicts or events that trigger prolonged travel advisory regimes produce more extended recovery arcs, with source market confidence rather than operational conditions defining the timeline. 

    The Egypt Metrojet bombing in 2015 remains the most instructive cautionary example for the Gulf: Russian airspace restrictions imposed after the incident kept a major source market out of the Egyptian market for more than five years, with arrivals recovery lagging the resolution of the underlying security concern by a significant margin.

    The UAE’s own Covid recovery offers a relevant local reference point. The GlobalData numbers show arrivals collapsed from 25.6 million in 2019 to 8.4 million in 2020, before recovering to 21.9 million in 2022 and surpassing pre-pandemic levels by 2023. The post-conflict recovery forecast of a bounce back to above 2025 levels by 2027 is less aggressive than the post-Covid rebound, reflecting both the more moderate scale of the 2026 contraction and the more complex advisory and perception dynamics involved in a conflict resolution scenario.

    The DET’s response is structured around three priorities: operational continuity, sector support and market confidence. The government announced a AED2.5bn ($612.7m) support package targeting the tourism, hospitality and entertainment sectors, structured to protect business continuity, preserve employment and maintain visitor experience standards. Dubai is doing all it can, but much depends on how quickly perceptions shift.

    Pilgrimages drive Saudi tourism

    More than 1.7 million pilgrims performed Hajj in 2026, according to official data published by Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics, underscoring the continued centrality of religious tourism to the kingdom’s visitor economy.

    The total of 1,707,301 pilgrims comprised 1,546,655 from outside the kingdom and 160,646 internal pilgrims, which includes Saudi citizens and residents. 

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    Hajj is a structural pillar of Saudi religious tourism, which alongside Umrah, draws tens of millions of visitors to Mecca and Medina each year. The sector sits at the core of Vision 2030’s tourism diversification strategy, which targets 150 million visits a year by the end of the decade. 

    Continued investment in transport infrastructure, including the expanded King Abdulaziz International airport and Haramain high-speed railway capacity, will help Riyadh achieve this target.

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    Colin Foreman