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Region prepares for circular plastics economy

23 June 2023

 

Representatives from the Gulf petrochemicals industry, plastics manufacturers and wider derivatives producers gathered at the Gulf Petrochemicals & Chemicals Association plastics conference in Saudi Arabia in May. There, it was agreed that while a “demonisation” of the plastics industry had indeed taken place, this was not entirely unjustified.

The Gulf region is a major producer of plastic products, among other petrochemicals derivatives. Furthermore, the GCC has been investing significantly in building large production complexes for petrochemicals – the basic feedstock for the manufacturing of plastics. 

However, despite irresponsible plastics usage and wastage being major environmental pollution issues worldwide, only about 10 per cent of plastics are recycled at present. This is due to the variability of plastics waste, contamination and gaps in the existing infrastructure.

“Every person on this planet is probably horrified by the pictures of plastic objects floating in the ocean, wildlife entangled in or ingesting plastic and mountains of plastic on dump sites and littered everywhere,” says Martyn Tickner, chief adviser of circular solutions for Alliance to End Plastic Waste, an industry-funded non-profit organisation based in Singapore. 

“Such pollution is a problem of lack of basic waste management. Three billion people – more than 35 per cent of the global population – are considered to lack access to adequate solid waste collection and properly managed disposal.”

Major pollution source

About half of global plastic waste is sent to landfill, about 20 per cent is incinerated, and the rest is either littered or burned in the open, causing severe pollution both on land and in the seas.

“Plastic, due to its non-biodegradable nature and potential toxicity, demands responsible usage and disposal,” says Hani Tohme, managing director – Middle East and head of sustainability in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region at Roland Berger, an international management consultancy headquartered in Germany. 

“However, current consumption patterns – particularly the reliance on single-use plastics – coupled with often insufficient waste management infrastructure, lead to widespread environmental pollution. 

“When not properly managed, plastic contributes significantly to land litter, marine pollution, and overall environmental degradation,” he says.

The need for recycling

Many of the severe environmental pollution problems arising from unsustainable plastics utilisation and the consumption of single-use plastics can be mitigated through the adoption of a circular plastics economy.

This is a system aimed at “reducing plastic waste globally”, say Devesh Katiyar, principal, and Jayanth Mantri, manager, at Strategy& Middle East, part of the PwC network. 

“It involves products designed for recyclability, efficient collection and sorting of plastic waste, advanced recycling technologies and policies to promote recycling.” 

They add that the scope of a circular plastics economy is global. “Annually, about 400,000 tonnes of plastic waste is traded globally, despite several restrictions. Driving circularity in plastics helps to reduce waste, conserve resources and avoid emissions and energy use associated with virgin plastics production, thereby promoting a sustainable and eco-friendly approach to managing plastics.”

Roland Berger’s Tohme adds that a circular plastics economy “disrupts the traditional linear model of ‘take-make-waste’ by adopting a restorative and regenerative approach”. 

“This framework incorporates the principles of ‘reduce, reuse and recycle’, along with strategies for designing out waste and pollution, maintaining products and materials in circulation and regenerating natural systems.”

Developing a circular and low-carbon economy for plastics requires changes at every stage of the plastics value chain, both upstream and downstream, says Tickner.

“Upstream solutions are those that endeavour to reduce the magnitude of the problem through the elimination of unnecessary use, the adoption of more sustainable alternatives and the redesigning of supply chains and delivery models to encourage reuse.” 

These solutions disrupt the root causes of today’s environmental crisis, he adds. “Reuse within the commercial, business-to-business supply chains – for example of packaging used to deliver from factory to warehouse – can be adopted quite quickly.”

Downstream solutions, meanwhile, are post-use. “Here, 100 per cent collection is a basic requirement to eliminate leakage into the environment,” Tickner explains.

The successful implementation of a circular plastics economy requires systemic changes and collaboration among stakeholders, including governments, businesses and consumers
Hani Tohme, Roland Berger

Open or closed loop

The plastics recycling process can be categorised as open-loop or closed-loop. 

Open-loop recycling is typically mechanical – converting plastic waste into less demanding plastic applications or using it in other material economies, such as the construction industry.

Closed-loop recycling means returning plastic back into high-value plastic applications, either directly, through advanced mechanical or dissolution technologies, or back to chemicals feedstock via chemical recycling. 

The technologies required to recycle almost all types of materials are available, or are rapidly emerging. As a result, overcoming the recycling challenge is primarily an issue of creating the right financial environment to enable major investment in the collection, sorting and recycling infrastructure.

The commercial case for plastics recycling 

Role of governments

Regional governments and regulatory authorities will need to play a role in supporting the growth of the plastics industry, as well as in ensuring the effective and sustainable consumption of plastics.

“A circular plastics economy offers a transformative approach to addressing the plastic waste crisis, promoting economic growth while reducing environmental impact,” says Tohme. “However, the successful implementation of this model requires systemic changes and collaboration among stakeholders, including governments, businesses and consumers.” 

Robust frameworks and proven best practices “play a pivotal role in guiding organisations to develop sustainable strategies, innovative business models and effective operational transformations, ultimately determining the success of their transition to a circular economy”, he says.

Strategy& Middle East’s Katiyar and Mantri note that governments and regulatory authorities can support the sustainable growth of the plastics industry in several ways. 

“They can implement policies and regulations such as bans and taxes on single-use plastics, extended producer responsibility programmes and incentives for advanced recycling and imports of plastic waste destined for recycling.

“In addition, they can create global closed-loop supply chains and material marketplaces to gain access to feedstock. And they can develop infrastructure for the collection, sorting and recycling of plastic waste – both within the region and abroad,” they continue. 

“The Mena region has the potential to attract investments of between $30bn and $40bn over the next two decades,
to build a truly world-class recycling infrastructure.”

The problems with plastics
  • Non-biodegradable: The environmental concerns surrounding plastic stem largely from its non-biodegradable nature. Most plastics take hundreds of years to decompose naturally. This inherent property means that plastic waste tends to accumulate in the environment over time rather than breaking down and returning to the ecosystem.
  • Microplastics and toxic chemicals: When plastics degrade, they break into tiny particles known as microplastics rather than biodegrading. These particles can be ingested by wildlife, with detrimental and often fatal results. Moreover, certain types of plastics contain chemicals that can leach out over time, particularly when exposed to heat or sunlight. These chemicals can contaminate soil and water, posing risks to wildlife and potentially infiltrating the food chain.
  • Greenhouse gas emissions: The impact of emissions is related on the one hand to the production of plastics – making virgin plastics, for instance, from oil – and on the other hand to the open burning and incineration of plastics after they have been disposed of in systems that lack proper waste management. This is happening in both developing and developed countries.
Addressing the environmental impact of plastics
  • Reusability: Most plastics consumed today are single-use plastics, in packaging and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) products such as plastic bags, straws and cutlery. A shift from single-use to reusable plastics is an important way to reduce the volume of plastic being consumed, thus reducing the overall impact. 
  • Light-weighting: Another key way to reduce the volume of plastic consumed is to reduce the weight of the plastics in products. This has been an area in focus for FMCG and packaging companies in recent years.
  • Design: Plastic packaging and products that are made of plastic layers glued with other fibres and laminates cannot be recycled easily, or at a cost that does not exceed the actual value of the material. Therefore, designing plastics products and packaging that are recyclable is another way to address the environmental impact of plastics.
  • Inadequate waste management and resulting pollution: Compounding these issues, an inadequate waste management infrastructure in many parts of the world is unable to effectively handle the volume of plastic waste. This leads to widespread littering of landscapes and waterways, accumulation of plastic in landfills and marine pollution. About 8-12 million metric tonnes (mt) of plastic enters our oceans each year, significantly threatening marine life – some estimates are even as high 14 million mt. On land, plastic waste similarly disrupts habitats and negatively impacts wildlife.

 

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Indrajit Sen

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    Gulf banks are proving adept at navigating the economic and geopolitical turbulence that comes with operating in the region. These skills have come to the fore this year, as regional lenders draw on stable funding profiles and ample capital and liquidity buffers that protect them from near-term credit risks. 

    GCC banks’ fundamentals have proved remarkably resilient to the Iran-related turmoil, assuming the intensity of the February-April stage of the military conflict does not resume.

    There have not been any significant outflows of external funding. While anecdotal evidence suggests some depositors briefly moved funds out of the region at the start of the war, ratings agency S&P Global notes that their return reflects confidence that the war will prove short-lived.

    Funding strength

    Metrics for the early part of the year revealed a robust picture. Domestic deposits held up strongly in the first quarter of 2026, total GCC domestic deposits rising by 16.9% in year-on-year terms, compensating for the decline in interbank funding. 

    State-linked deposits grew at a particularly rapid pace, led by the UAE and Kuwait, which offset decelerating private-sector deposit growth in those countries. 

    Domestic deposits accelerated in April, a pointer to GCC governments’ proactive stances in shielding their banking systems from undue stress. The inflow of public deposits accelerated quite significantly in this period, although that pace will likely subside as conditions gradually normalise. 

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    Funding and liquidity is generally a strength for the region

    Gulf states’ heavy reliance on public sector and government-related deposits has proved valuable in the current environment, anchoring banks’ funding profiles and helping reduce potential risks.

    Fund outflows have not materialised to any significant degree. “We had some anecdotal evidence of funds being withdrawn, but they returned in the following weeks,” says Ramsdale.

    Solid fundamentals

    GCC banks entered the conflict period in strong shape. According to S&P, domestic private sector credit growth in the region remained robust in the first quarter – the annualised growth rate was 8% at the end of March. 

    Core capital buffers are about 15%-16% – higher still for the top lenders – ensuring total loss-absorbing capacity stays below 9% of equity. Regulatory ratios exceed relevant thresholds, providing a significant buffer, according to ratings agency Moody’s.

    “If you look at the whole region, the proportion of the lending book that is non-performing, on a weighted average basis, sits around 2%,” says Badis Shubailat, a senior analyst at Moody’s. 

    “Against this solid level of asset quality, you have a cushion of provisions for expected losses that more than covers the existing stock of problem loans, which provides a strong first line of defence.”

    Then, as a second line of defence, are core capital buffers that remain high by global standards, with levels around 15%-16%. Put together, this explains why the banks are sitting on comfortable positions in terms of loss-absorption capacity.

    At the end of Q1 2025, the top 45 GCC banks reported an average Tier 1 capital ratio of 17%, with coverage ratios of 155.8%, according to S&P. 

    “Credit losses are at historical lows of 50 basis points (bps) for the region, and there are very good provisioning buffers – all of which helps to mitigate the negative consequences of the expected asset quality deterioration,” says Tatjana Lescova, director and lead analyst at S&P.

    According to Shubailat, the fact that the conflict impact on GCC banks has not been as pronounced as on other sectors reflects that over the past three years – and until right before the conflict started – the region as a whole, and its banking systems, had demonstrated remarkable resilience. In contrast, major advanced economies were struggling with inflationary pressures and subdued economic growth. 

    “This was visible in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the two largest economic diversification engines in the region, which happen to also represent more than two-thirds of total banking system assets,” says Shubailat.

    Limited exposure

    Gulf banks have also been helped by the fact that those economic sectors most impacted by conflict – tourism, hospitality, energy – do not generally form a large part of their collective loans books. 

    “There will be weaker performance of borrowers in the most obvious affected sectors like infrastructure, tourism, logistics, transport and real estate, but tourism is actually a pretty small exposure for the banks – less than 3% of loan books,” says Ramsdale. “There might be a bit of pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are less able to cope with the pressures than the larger corporates, but again, for banks, SME lending is not very big.” 

    Banks’ exposure to the real estate and construction sectors is highest in Qatar – 31% of total credit at the end of March – while the exposure in Kuwait stands at 25%, with Saudi Arabia at 16% and Bahrain at 12%, notes S&P. UAE banks have been consistently reducing their exposure to these sectors, down to 13% at the end of March, compared to 21% at year-end 2020. 

    Moody’s Shubailat says that developers in the UAE sit on solid balance sheets and strong revenue backlogs, while banks’ exposure to the construction sector has declined. “So the quantum is lower, the credit quality of the exposure is better, and the banks are sitting on higher capital and provisioning buffers,” he notes.

    Gulf bankers are not resting on their laurels. They know that even if bad loans have been limited, they cannot forestall the possibility of problem exposures further down the road. 

    “Asset quality deterioration is a risk that we expect to materialise later in the year. This is because of weaker macro expectations, and negative impact on some of the corporate sectors, albeit varying across different GCC countries,” says Lescova.

    On average, for the region, S&P expects 20 bps of increases in credit losses for this year. When it comes to asset quality, the regulatory forbearance measures announced by three central banks will help alleviate the impact.

    Policy support

    Central bank moves have added another layer of support. Forbearance measures from the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar central banks have allowed additional headroom.

    For example, in mid-March, the Central Bank of the UAE launched a five-pillar resilience package that relaxed capital buffer stipulations, representing more than $272bn in support. 

    Kuwait eased liquidity requirements, raised maximum lending limits and released a portion of the capital conservation buffer to expand refinancing and credit quality absorption capacity. Qatar, meanwhile, has cut the reserve requirement from 4.5% to 3.5% for deposits.

    Forbearance measures from the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar central banks have allowed additional headroom

    Such measures were not a response to a banking crisis, says Ramsdale. “Some of the support packages that we have seen coming out of the central banks, in the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait, were preventative support measures,” he says.

    “They were designed to boost confidence and limit that pass through from temporary deposit volatility. It was not to do with acute banking stress.”

    Market confidence

    Larger banks are better positioned to cope with straitened economic times. They are generally more geographically diversified beyond their domestic markets, and international operations have historically been a growth driver for them. 

    “When there is increased market uncertainty, larger banks may benefit from a flight-to-quality movement, with deposits moved away from smaller banks. Based on Q1 results, only a few smaller banks have reported a contraction in the customer deposits,” says Lescova.

    The GCC’s largest banks, including Al-Rajhi Banking & Investment Corporation, Saudi National Bank, First Abu Dhabi Bank, Qatar National Bank, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and Emirates NBD, remain highly profitable, although they may not perform as strongly as they would have had the conflict not occurred.

    “We already expected some softening in profitability before the conflict, because of the normalisation of the cost of risk upwards from incredibly low levels over the last three years, [which] were driven by a very strong recovery performance from the banks,” says Shubailat. 

    “In turn, this current situation adds a layer of pressure to the normalising profitability story by increasing provisioning needs in light of the recent economic shocks,” he adds.  

    Confidence in GCC banks was evident from the outset of the conflict. In early April, Emirates NBD priced a $750m AT1 capital issuance, the first international debt capital markets transaction by a GCC issuer since late February.

    “The first ceasefire saw things like private placements start happening again, and that slowly translated into the opening up of public markets. 

    “Emirates NBD was one of the first banks to open up that market, and we are seeing the largest banks issuing again,” says Ramsdale.

    The operating environment for Saudi Arabia is ranked BBB+ – a strong position, all things considered. Ramsdale notes that Riyadh’s reprioritisation of large projects associated with Vision 2030 “means growth will probably be slightly slower in Saudi Arabia”, but adds: “That is actually a good thing, because growth was so strong it was beginning to pressure funding, liquidity and capitalisation. 

    “Taking off some of that pressure is a positive for banks.”

    Growth prospects

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    Such moves should provide reassurance that, despite recent challenges, GCC banks are well placed to ride out the remainder of 2026 and resume the positive trajectory  that was evident before the Iran war shook the region. 

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    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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    Mark Dowdall