Region advances LNG projects with pace
30 August 2024

Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) liquefaction capacity is expected to more than double by 2028, potentially increasing from 473 million tonnes a year (t/y) in 2023 to 968 million t/y in 2028 through new build and expansion projects, according to a recent report by GlobalData.
North America dominates globally among the regions, in terms of new build and expansion liquefaction capacity growth, contributing around 54% of the total global capacity additions or 268 million t/y by 2028, GlobalData says in the report.
The Middle East comes in at second position, followed by the Former Soviet Union, with capacity additions of 78 million t/y and 71 million t/y, respectively.
Since the start of this decade, there has been a sharp increase in investments in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena), and particularly in the Gulf region, in projects to expand LNG production. Capital expenditure close to $45bn has been made by Mena hydrocarbon producers in the past 10 years on various LNG projects, mainly for output capacity building, MEED Projects data shows. Almost three-fourths of that spending took place in the past four years, and predominantly in the GCC.
A desire to cater to the steady growth expected in global LNG demand and dominate the global supply market is fuelling the wave of investments into large-scale production capacity expansions and terminal construction by Gulf players.
Qatar guns for top spot
Qatar has been jostling with the US and Australia for the status of being the largest LNG provider to the world for many years now. The three countries have all clinched the top spot, only to be unseated by another the very next month.
However, when its mammoth North Field LNG expansion programme begins to come online later this decade, Qatar will be able to consolidate its position as the world’s largest producer and exporter of LNG in the long term.
State enterprise QatarEnergy is understood to have spent almost $30bn on the two phases of the North Field LNG expansion programme, North Field East and North Field South, which will increase its LNG production capacity from 77.5 million tonnes a year (t/y) to 126 million t/y by 2028. Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works on the two projects are making steady progress.
QatarEnergy awarded the main EPC contracts in 2021 for the North Field East project, which is projected to increase LNG output to 110 million t/y by 2025. The main $13bn EPC package, which covers the engineering, procurement, construction and installation of four LNG trains with capacities of 8 million t/y, was awarded to a consortium of Japan’s Chiyoda Corporation and France’s Technip Energies in February 2021.
QatarEnergy awarded the $10bn main EPC contract for the North Field South LNG project, covering two large LNG processing trains, to a consortium of Technip Energies and Lebanon-based Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC) in May last year.
When fully commissioned, the first two phases of the North Field LNG expansion programme will contribute a total supply capacity of 48 million t/y to the global LNG market.
Qatar is, however, not stopping at that. QatarEnergy, in February, announced a third phase of its North Field LNG expansion programme. To be called North Field West, the project will further increase QatarEnergy’s LNG production capacity to 142 million t/y when it is commissioned by 2030.
The North Field West project will have an LNG production capacity of 16 million t/y, which is expected to be achieved through two 8 million t/y LNG processing trains, based on the two earlier phases of QatarEnergy’s LNG expansion programme. The new project derives its name from the western zone of Qatar’s North Field offshore gas reserve, from where it will draw feedstock for LNG production.
Oman moves up the ladder
Oman has been supplying LNG to customers, mainly in Asia, for many years now. Majority state-owned Oman LNG operates three gas liquefaction trains at its site in Qalhat, with a nameplate capacity of 10.4 million t/y. Due to debottlenecking, the company’s complex now has a production capacity of about 11.4 million t/y.
As recently as late July, the Omani government announced that Oman LNG will build a new train at its Qalhat LNG production complex in Sur, located in the sultanate’s South Al-Sharqiyah governorate. Oman LNG will perform the preliminary engineering study for the planned LNG train.
The LNG train will have an output capacity of 3.8 million t/y. When commissioned in 2029, it will increase Oman LNG’s total production capacity to 15.2 million t/y.
Aside from Oman LNG, France’s TotalEnergies has now committed itself to becoming a major LNG supplier in the sultanate. In partnership with state energy holding conglomerate OQ, TotalEnergies achieved final investment decision earlier this year for a major LNG bunkering and export terminal in Oman’s northern city of Sohar.
TotalEnergies leads a joint venture named Marsa LNG, which is the Sohar LNG terminal project developer. Marsa LNG was formed in December 2021 through an agreement between TotalEnergies and the sultanate’s state energy holding company OQ. The partners own 80% and 20% stakes, respectively.
Marsa LNG intends to develop an integrated facility consisting of upstream units that will draw natural gas feedstock from TotalEnergies’ hydrocarbon concessions in the sultanate, particularly from Blocks 10 and 11; an LNG bunkering terminal and storage units located in Sohar port; and a solar photovoltaic plant to power the LNG terminal.
The Marsa LNG terminal will have a single train with the capacity to process about 1 million t/y of natural gas into LNG. The bunkering terminal will mainly supply LNG as a marine fuel to vessels. Marsa LNG has picked France-based Technip Energies to perform EPC works on the estimated $1bn LNG terminal project.
Adnoc gives shape to ambitions
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has been a relatively smaller LNG producer in comparison to its GCC peers. Adnoc Group subsidiary, Adnoc Gas, operates three large gas processing trains on Das Island. At its Das Island terminal, Adnoc Gas has an LNG liquefaction and export capacity of about 6 million t/y. The first and second trains were commissioned in the 1970s and have a combined output capacity of 2.9 million t/y. The third train came into operation in the mid-1990s, with a capacity of 3.2 million t/y.
Adnoc Gas’ LNG production and export capability, however, will receive a major fillip when a new greenfield terminal it has committed to developing in Ruwais, Abu Dhabi, comes online before the end of this decade. The planned LNG export terminal in Ruwais will have the capacity to produce about 9.6 million t/y of LNG from two processing trains, each with a capacity of 4.8 million t/y.
Adnoc awarded the full EPC contract and achieved the final investment decision for the LNG terminal complex in June. A consortium of France’s Technip Energies, Japan-based JGC Corporation and Abu Dhabi-owned NMDC Energy was awarded the EPC contract, worth $5.5bn.
Jordan takes a step forward
Jordan imports more than 90% of its oil, gas and refined product needs and therefore has a strong economic case for developing projects to boost its domestic hydrocarbon infrastructure, particularly for gas.
The country recently took a key step forward when Aqaba Development Corporation awarded the main EPC contract in August for a project to develop the Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah LNG onshore regasification facility at the port of Aqaba.
The contract was won by a consortium of Singapore-based AG&P and South Korea’s Gas Entec, along with their local partner, Jordan’s Issa Haddadin.
In a statement, Gas Entec said that the facility will have the capacity to process 720 million cubic feet a day of natural gas.
“Jordan relies heavily on natural gas for its power and industrial needs, but faces challenges with supply reliability,” Gas Entec said.
“The new LNG terminal will provide Jordan with the flexibility to access LNG from various global suppliers, ensuring a stable and secure energy source.”
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The US-Iran agreement, declared complete on 14 June, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, lifts the US naval blockade and ends a war that has closed the Gulf’s export artery since 28 February. The strait reopens at Friday’s signing on paper, but the recovery will take months.
US President Donald Trump announced the deal on Truth Social, authorising the "toll-free opening" of the strait and the immediate removal of the blockade, with formal signing set for Geneva on 19 June – with vice-president JD Vance to sign for Washington and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf for Tehran in the highest-level US-Iran meeting since 1979.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed the text was finalised but said Tehran would not implement it until signing, with the strait staying closed in the interim.
Signing versus substance
The signing on 19 June is merely the starting line that will set in motion a partial reopening to traffic alongside a clearance operation to remove the mines laid by Tehran across key sections of the strait.
The memorandum gives Iranian forces 30 days from signing to clear the strait of mines. At the same time, the Pentagon’s estimates appear to suggest that a full minesweeping could take up to six months, even with three dedicated vessels in the region.
Such gaps – here a 30-day treaty obligation against a six-month operational reality – have become the running feature of the bilateral negotiations, which have been framed by mutual distrust and plagued by an absence of granular detail.
The deal is welcome for the region despite its uncertainty. Behind the mines sits a tanker backlog built over more than 100 days, and Gulf producers that throttled back production and need time and assurances to restore flow.
Before the war, roughly 100 ships transited daily; Kpler now projects around 40 a day could sail within the first month, but with an estimated 300 loaded vessels stranded on either side of the strait, and 250 more sitting empty and idle in the Gulf, it is a pressure release valve, not an immediate restoration of flow.
A total restoration of oil and trade flows is unlikely to come into view before the year’s end.
Insurance represents the second brake, with war-risk premiums standing at 1-4% of vessel value per transit, or about $8m for a $200m tanker – against less than 0.1% before the war.
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Conditional relief
Markets have already traded the sentiment, however. Brent settled at $87.33 on 13 June – an eight-week low – and have fallen further as the deal has firmed. As of early morning trading on 16 June, the first full day of trading after the Islamic New Year, Brent was down at $78.
Yet the relief remains highly conditional: a 60-day nuclear negotiation now follows the signing, and a breakdown in either this, passage through the strait or peace in Lebanon could return the strait to crisis.
The US-touted toll-free terminology is also narrower than billed, with the Iranians instead affirming a 60-day grace period for fees but not eliminating the possibility of “fees” for navigation, environmental and insurance services after that point.
The distinction is legal, not rhetorical, with international maritime law barring tolls on passage through natural straits but permitting the imposition of service fees on vessels passing through territorial waters.
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Levant entanglement
Lebanon is another conditional space that the deal cannot fully escape, with a flare-up on that front being the final potential trigger that could collapse the 60-day agreement.
Iran has explicitly tied a ceasefire in Lebanon to the resolution of transit in the strait, but Israel does not agree with this, and the linkage may have inadvertently handed Tel Aviv the exact tool it needs to disrupt the US–Iran ceasefire – through the simple of continuing a conflict that it already wants to continue.
Within a day of the deal, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said the IDF would stay in southern Lebanon “without any time limit”, with US officials corroborating that Israeli withdrawal was never a condition of a deal.
On the ground, the ceasefire is already looking frail, with post-deal fire straying in both directions and already endangering the regional calm and Hormuz reopening the Gulf is already pricing.
For Gulf producers and shippers, the distinction and in some cases friction between what the deal declares and what it actually delivers remains a cause for uncertainty.
A declaration is easy, but the delivery requires nuclear negotiation, mine-clearance verification, insurance repricing and a 60-day political test before barrels can again move at volume.
Trump, who has been frustrated for months with the slow progress on Iran from a US perspective, is also more than likely to be distracted by other concerns on a timeline shorter than 60 days – risking the political will to peace coming up short.
In the Gulf, whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE send cabinet-level representatives to Geneva on Friday will signal whether the region’s political leaders are willing to wield the political capital necessary to keep the US on track and pursue the ceasefire to fruition.
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