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Qatar’s strategy falls into place

3 February 2026

Commentary
John Bambridge
Analysis editor

Qatar enters 2026 with a rare sense of momentum and confidence, underpinned by the most optimistic growth outlook anywhere in the GCC. With the IMF forecasting real GDP growth of 6.1%, Doha is not just set to improve markedly on its 2.9% expansion in 2025, but to break clear of its regional peers. 

Nor is this dynamic a surprise, so much as one rooted in unusually well-aligned fundamentals. Global gas markets have turned decisively in Doha’s favour, with demand growth resuming in 2024 and strengthening through 2025. Natural gas prices have held up far better than crude and are being buoyed by surging energy demand. Yet all of this only complements the long-term planning of QatarEnergy, which locked in the next phase of the country’s hydrocarbons strategy back in 2021. Doha’s spending of a further $20bn on energy infrastructure in 2025 merely underscored its existing strategy.

Developments are also looking bullish in Doha’s non-hydrocarbon economy. Total project awards across all sectors in the past five years have swollen the value of work under execution in Qatar by $39bn. Recent awards in the utilities sector include the 2,000MW Dukhan solar scheme, which will double national solar capacity and boost the clean energy mix. In the construction sector, a pipeline of large infrastructure schemes, including Doha’s expansive plans for its highway and rail networks, promises to restore a more predictable rhythm to the market. Altogether, non-hydrocarbon growth accelerated to a 4.4% year-on-year expansion in the third quarter of last year.

Geopolitically, Qatar has meanwhile emerged from a turbulent period with its strategic position reinforced rather than diminished. Two brushes with wider regional conflict in the past year might have unsettled a less diplomatically agile state. Instead, Doha has leveraged its indispensability – as an energy supplier, mediator and host to key US assets – to secure stronger security guarantees from Washington. Qatar has also emerged as a winner in Syria, where its long-term support for the anti-Assad opposition has translated into substantial current opportunities. Doha-based construction group UCC Holding is now the anchor for two foreign investment deals: one worth $7bn in the energy sector and another worth $4bn in the aviation sector.

None of this is accidental. As with its investments in the gas sector, Doha’s successes today are the result of long-term strategy. And what lies ahead is precisely what the government has been telegraphing for years – LNG expansion, ambitious public spending and a focus on converting today’s gas windfalls into economic resilience. If 2026 does indeed deliver Qatar a standout performance, it will not be because of commodity prices, but because the different pieces of Doha’s plans are all finally falling into place.

 

MEED’s February 2026 report on Qatar includes:

> GVT & ECONOMY: Qatar enters 2026 with heady expectations
> BANKING: Qatar banks search for growth
> OIL & GAS: QatarEnergy achieves strategic oil and gas goals in 2025
> POWER & WATER: Dukhan solar award drives Qatar's utility sector
> CONSTRUCTION: Infrastructure investments underpin Qatar construction

To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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John Bambridge

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