meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Qatar’s return to economic normality

8 January 2024

 

Diplomacy, not economics, was the flavour of the fourth quarter for Qatar, which has become active again in the conflict resolution arena in recent months, mediating in disputes as far apart as Gaza and Venezuela.

Qatar’s efforts in November to secure a truce in the war between Israel and Hamas secured particularly favourable headlines for Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani and Minister of State Mohammed bin Abdulaziz al-Khulaifi.

Regretfully, the humanitarian truce proved short-lived, and further efforts by Qatar, Egypt and others to forge a broader ceasefire have yet to succeed – though Doha has had successes elsewhere with its mediation efforts in recent months.

Equally important in terms of cementing Doha’s ties with Washington was Qatar’s role in securing the release of US prisoners in Venezuela on 20 December. Qatar’s involvement led to 10 American inmates being allowed to go home, in return for one Venezuelan. Al-Khulaifi said of the Venezuelan deal that it was part of a broader mediation effort to reduce tensions between the two countries.

It was certainly appreciated by Washington, with US ambassador to Doha, Timmy Davis, saying in response: “Once again, Qatar has proven itself an indispensable ally to the United States.”

The positive US sentiment towards Qatar has also been reflected in the new year by a deal between the two countries for the renewal of the US military presence at the expansive Al-Udeid Air Base for another 10 years.

More broadly, Qatar’s recently renewed wave of diplomacy efforts harks back to previous initiatives by Qatar to promote itself as a leading global mediator. From 2008-16, it worked on reducing tensions and forging peace agreements in about 10 regional and international conflicts.

These diplomatic efforts took something of a back seat as the country built itself up for the 2022 football World Cup, but it now appears that the government’s appetite for a role as an instrument of soft power has returned.

Economic heading

At the same time, it remains a pressing concern for Doha to develop a replacement anchoring economic initiative to follow in the wake of its World Cup boom. Such direction is currently lacking, and that was palpably evident when details of the state’s budget for 2024 were issued on 21 December.

Outside of the energy sector, there are only a handful of strategic projects that are continuing, such as a national cancer hospital – and nothing on the scale of the stadium and infrastructure build-out for the football tournament, which sustained the country’s non-hydrocarbons economic growth for a decade.

There are only a handful of strategic projects that are continuing – and nothing on the scale of the stadium and infrastructure build-out for the football tournament

Several more large events are scheduled to take place in the coming years, including the 2030 Asian Games, but none are likely to rival the World Cup in terms of spending or impact.

Overall, expenditure is set to reach QR200.9bn ($55.2bn) in 2024, just 1 per cent higher than the year before. Public sector salaries and wages will account for QR64bn of that total, up 2.4 per cent year-on-year. However, major capital expenditure is down 8.3 per cent.

Based on the highly conservative estimate of an average oil price of $60 a barrel in 2024, compared to $65 a barrel in 2023, Qatar’s revenues are set to decrease by 14.5 per cent to QR159bn this year. This reduction will be partly offset by an expected 2.4 per cent rise in non-oil revenues to QR43bn.

In a press conference on 21 December, Finance Minister Ali bin Ahmed al-Kuwari said that if spending remains at the projected level, the budget will produce a surplus of QR1.1bn, compared to the 2023 budget surplus estimate of QR29bn. However, Qatar also plans to pay off QR7.3bn of debt during the year, meaning the exchequer is projected to realise a deficit of QR6.2bn.

James Swanston, Middle East and North Africa economist at London-based Capital Economics, said the spending plans could yet be expanded. “Qatar’s 2024 state budget showed a slight fiscal loosening … and, if anything, officials may raise spending even further,” he said.

There is plenty of room for manoeuvre given the country’s ample gas reserves and low debts. Qatar’s public debt shrank from 58.4 per cent of GDP in 2021 to 42.5 per cent in 2022 and is expected to continue to fall to 37.4 per cent by the end of this year.

The Washington-based IMF describes the trajectory of the post-World Cup economy as one of “normalisation”. In a statement issued on 21 November following a visit to Doha, IMF mission chief Ran Bi said: “After very strong performance in 2022, economic growth has been normalising, while the medium-term outlook remains favourable.”

The IMF expects annual output to expand by about 1.75 per cent in the period 2023-25, with the non-hydrocarbons sector growing at 2.75 per cent a year. The IMF’s forecast in October was based on a more optimistic oil price of $79.9 a barrel, however.

Energy expansion

In the absence of another national project of note, Qatar has been doubling down on its investments in the expansion and development of its upstream gas infrastructure.

In May, QatarEnergy awarded the $10bn contract for the development of two new liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains at North Field South to the joint venture of France’s Technip Energies and Greece’s Consolidated Contractors Company. This built on a similarly significant $13bn contract awarded in 2021 to Japan’s Chiyoda and Technip Energies to build four LNG trains as part of the North Field expansion project.

Doha also struck a series of long-term supply deals in 2023 for the output from the expanded North Field, including three 27-year contracts signed in October alone, covering the supply of 3.5 million tonnes a year (t/y) of LNG to both TotalEnergies and Shell, and 1 million t/y to Italian major Eni. The following month, Doha signed a deal to supply a further 3 million t/y over 27 years to China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec).

QatarEnergy chief executive and Minister of State for Energy Affairs, Saad al-Kaabi, said in mid-December that more deals were imminent. Meanwhile, on 28 December, QatarEnergy announced a five-year crude oil supply deal with a Singapore-based subsidiary of Shell, covering up to 18 million barrels a year from January 2024. Al-Kaabi said it was his company’s first-ever five-year crude sales agreement.

There remains a ready market for the country’s natural gas, not least as the world’s energy transition fuel of choice, as a halfway step away from more polluting oil and coal. Doha nevertheless knows that it needs to find more non-hydrocarbons revenue sources. In the IMF’s November statement, Bi said the country’s plans include “accelerating revenue diversification through further mobilisation of non-hydrocarbons tax revenues”, but exactly what this means in practice has yet to be spelt out.

MEED's February 2024 special report on Qatar includes: 

> GOVERNMENT & ECONOMY: Qatar’s return to economic normality
> BANKING: Qatar’s banks adjust to new circumstances
> OIL & GAS: Qatar enters period of oil and gas consolidation
> POWER & WATER: Qatar power and water projects to take off
> CONSTRUCTION: Qatar construction enters reboot mode

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11418013/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Adnoc Onshore selects contractors for well tie-ins project

    27 October 2026

     

    Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s onshore operating arm (Adnoc Onshore) has selected contractors for a major project to tie in wells across the Bab and North East Bab oil field developments in Abu Dhabi.

    Located 84 kilometres southwest of Abu Dhabi city, the Bab field has been in production since 1960 and is the emirate’s first oil-producing asset. The North East Bab cluster comprises the Al-Nouf, Rumaitha and Shanayel fields. 

    The Bab and North East Bab One Tie-In project is central to Adnoc Onshore’s contribution to Adnoc Group’s target of expanding crude oil production capacity to 5 million barrels a day (b/d) by 2027, an initiative known as the Accelerated Integrated Programme 5. The state energy company’s total production capacity currently stands at approximately 4.85 million b/d.

    According to industry sources, Adnoc Onshore has selected local contractor Robt Stone Middle East and China’s Jereh Group to carry out engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works on the project. While both firms have been notified of their selection, a formal project kick-off meeting has yet to take place.

    Adnoc Onshore is understood to have started the tendering process for the Bab and North East Bab One Tie-In project last year, with contractors submitting technical and commercial bids earlier this year.

    Following the evaluation of bids, Adnoc Onshore sought best commercial offers from the bidders, which contractors submitted in May, MEED previously reported.

    The project budget is estimated at $1.2bn.

    Bidders for the contract are understood to have included:

    • Galfar Emirates (UAE branch of Oman’s Galfar Engineering & Construction)
    • Jereh (China)
    • Kalpataru Projects International (India)
    • Matrix Construction (UAE)
    • Robt Stone Middle East (UAE)
    • Target Engineering Construction Company (UAE)

    The project scope covers residual engineering, procurement of materials not supplied as free-issue items, site surveys, construction, installation, inspection, testing, and pre-commissioning and commissioning support. The works will deliver new wellsite facilities, including a new mini-pad, well bays and clusters across the Bab and North East Bab developments.

    Adnoc Onshore is Adnoc Group’s largest production subsidiary, accounting for roughly 2 million b/d of crude and about 7 billion cubic feet a day of associated gas from four primary onshore asset clusters: Bab, Bu Hasa, North East Bab and South East.

    ALSO READ:

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20951928/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Ashghal tenders Al-Udeid air base access road works

    27 October 2026

     

    Qatar’s Public Works Authority (Ashghal) has invited contractors to bid on a contract to build roads and related infrastructure around Al-Udeid Air Base.

    The project is located in Zone 95 of Al-Wakra Municipality, adjacent to Al-Majd Road. 

    The tender was issued on 22 October, with a submission deadline of 22 November.

    The scope includes the construction of a dual-lane carriageway to improve access to the air base, together with three roundabouts. The alignment will connect to Al-Majd Road to the east and tie into Street 203 in Zone 95 to the west. The contractor will also resurface and maintain connections to the existing road network.

    Associated works include street lighting, intelligent transport systems, directional signage and a surface-water drainage collection system.

    The contractor will provide crossing ducts, protect and relocate conflicting existing utilities, and complete detailed utility designs as required by relevant stakeholders through the Qatar Design Review System.

    The project also includes the design and construction of two electrical substations. The contractor must secure the necessary stakeholder and authority approvals before starting these works.

    The scheme will be delivered on a remeasurable, build-only basis using designs approved by others. It will also include designated contractor-designed elements and design-and-build packages for the substations.

    Bidders must submit two commercial pricing options: a base offer subject to material price-fluctuation provisions, and an alternative authority option without such provisions.

    The contract has a 550-day completion period from the commencement date, including mobilisation, followed by a 400-day maintenance period after the completion certificate is issued.

    Participation is restricted to local and international contractors registered under the Ministry of Finance classification system in Grade A or Grade B for road specialisation.

    Unclassified foreign firms may submit equivalent certified documentation from their country of origin, attested by Qatari diplomatic missions. They must obtain Ministry of Finance registration before contract award.

    For joint-venture bids, the lead partner must hold the required classification grade.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20950810/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi Arabia gauges interest for Al-Ula wastewater expansion

    27 October 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Al-Ula (RCU) is conducting market sounding for the first phase of the Mughayra wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) expansion before formally starting its tendering process, according to industry sources.

    The project is valued at SR400m ($107m) and is intended to increase the Mughayra plant’s wastewater treatment capacity to 62,000 cubic metres a day.

    RCU is gauging interest from potential contractors and has not yet issued a prequalification questionnaire, a source said.

    The scheme forms part of Saudi Arabia’s broader investment drive to develop its cultural and tourism offering across Al-Ula.

    The commission launched its Journey Through Time Masterplan in April 2021, with implementation scheduled in three phases through 2035. The masterplan covers infrastructure development, water management and irrigation, alongside the regeneration of a 9-kilometre cultural oasis.

    French engineering firm Artelia previously noted in its 2025 annual corporate report that it is involved in the design phase of the Mughayra WWTP.

    RCU is also developing strategic potable-water storage infrastructure in Al-Ula, including a design-and-build project covering a 50,000-cubic-metre reservoir at Hub 06 and a 15,000-cubic-metre reservoir at Hub 08.

    Local contractor Bin Omairah previously confirmed that it is serving as the engineering, procurement and construction contractor for the storage facilities.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20950333/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Qatari firm wins $147m Syria road deal

    27 October 2026

    Qatari contractor Al-Mohannadi for Roads, Trading & Contracting has signed a $147m contract with Syria’s General Directorate of Roads to rehabilitate and expand a 215-kilometre (km) highway corridor connecting to the Iraqi border.

    The project covers the rehabilitation and dualisation of a 170km section linking the Al-Busairi junction to the Al-Tanf border crossing, alongside the construction of a 45km link between the Al-Sabaa Biyar junction and Al-Busairi. Work is scheduled for completion within 900 days.

    The agreement was signed in Damascus by Moaz Najjar, director-general of the General Directorate of Roads, and Abdullah Adnan Al-Zattam, chief executive of Al-Mohannadi, in the presence of Syrian Transport Minister Yarob Badr and Finance Minister Mohammad Yusr Barnieh.

    The upgrade is intended to restore and expand one of Syria’s primary overland arteries to Iraq, which has suffered significant deterioration and capacity bottlenecks following years of conflict. The Al-Tanf corridor represents the most direct overland link between Damascus, central Syrian industrial centres and Baghdad.

    The project is designed to accommodate heavier commercial freight vehicles and reduce transit times between the two countries.

    The investment also forms part of broader efforts to re-establish Syria’s role as a regional transit corridor connecting Mediterranean ports with landlocked trade routes into Iraq and the wider region.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20950332/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Adnoc showcases $16.3bn local manufacturing potential

    27 October 2026

    Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Group) has identified more than AED60bn ($16.3bn) in local manufacturing opportunities through 2030.

    The Abu Dhabi energy company also announced changes to its procurement, supplier registration and In-Country Value (ICV) localisation frameworks.

    The measures were announced at the second Make it with Adnoc Forum, held in Abu Dhabi on October 25. They are intended to give manufacturers, suppliers and investors greater visibility of future demand and a faster, clearer route to compete for Adnoc contracts, the company said.

    The more than 200 manufacturing opportunities cover products required for Adnoc’s projects and operations, including:

    • Rotating equipment and power
    • Electrical, control and automation systems
    • Drilling and completion equipment
    • Chemicals and catalysts
    • Piping, fabrication and heavy equipment
    • Spare parts and advanced manufacturing

    Many of the identified products are currently imported, Adnoc said. “Manufacturing them in the UAE shortens lead times, reduces exposure to global supply disruptions and strengthens the resilience of Adnoc’s operations,” it said in its statement.

    Adnoc, the UAE Ministry of Industry & Advanced Technology and the Abu Dhabi Investment Office (Adio) will work together to connect manufacturers with these opportunities. The collaboration will combine visibility of Adnoc’s demand, access to the national industrial database and financing through the National Industrial Resilience Fund, the company said.

    Adnoc also signed two memorandums of understanding on the sidelines of the forum with Adio and Kezad Group.

    ICV scheme expansion

    Adnoc announced the expansion of its Local+ programme, part of its ICV framework, to more than 100 UAE manufacturers, compared with 70 at its launch in May. The programme gives UAE-made products priority in Adnoc projects by requiring engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractors bidding for new tenders to source relevant products from manufacturers approved under the programme.

    Separately, Adnoc announced a redesign of its supplier registration and prequalification process. The company is targeting a reduction of up to 80% in the time required for suppliers to complete the process and become eligible to compete for Adnoc opportunities.

    The new model halves the number of required documents and removes prequalification requirements for 60% of service categories.

    A single window brings together registration, qualification and compliance, with requirements tailored to the nature of the work and its level of risk. Artificial intelligence will support document verification and the reuse of existing data, reducing repetitive submissions and administrative processing.

    ALSO READ:
    Adnoc steps up crude oil capacity expansion
    Adnoc funnels billions into boosting gas processing

    “Adnoc’s enhanced ICV model will more closely connect procurement decisions with commercial value and suppliers’ contribution to the UAE economy. Under the new model, commercial and ICV offers will be integrated into a single evaluation model,” the company said.

    “The previous bid-matching approach will be retired, encouraging suppliers to submit their most competitive commercial and ICV offers from the outset. Requirements will be proportionate to contract size and scope.

    “The model also enhances the administration of ICV-related retention payments. Where retention applies, automated calculation and release processes through the Adnoc Supplier Hub will improve transparency, reduce manual follow-up and support suppliers’ cash flow as obligations are met.”

    Alongside the ICV and registration enhancements, Adnoc outlined a new commercial approach built around four strategic shifts: agile, competitive, strategic and forward-looking.

    “The approach will advance simpler procurement and faster decision-making, contracting models aligned with project and market dynamics, targeted commercial negotiations and earlier visibility of Adnoc’s future demand.”

    Since its launch in 2018, Adnoc’s ICV programme has directed more than AED307bn ($83.6bn) into the UAE economy, the company said. By the end of 2025, it had also supported the localisation of more than 130 products, the development of 95 UAE factories, and employment opportunities for more than 27,500 Emiratis at participating private sector companies.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20948385/main5518.jpg
    Indrajit Sen