meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Qatar’s return to economic normality

8 January 2024

 

Diplomacy, not economics, was the flavour of the fourth quarter for Qatar, which has become active again in the conflict resolution arena in recent months, mediating in disputes as far apart as Gaza and Venezuela.

Qatar’s efforts in November to secure a truce in the war between Israel and Hamas secured particularly favourable headlines for Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani and Minister of State Mohammed bin Abdulaziz al-Khulaifi.

Regretfully, the humanitarian truce proved short-lived, and further efforts by Qatar, Egypt and others to forge a broader ceasefire have yet to succeed – though Doha has had successes elsewhere with its mediation efforts in recent months.

Equally important in terms of cementing Doha’s ties with Washington was Qatar’s role in securing the release of US prisoners in Venezuela on 20 December. Qatar’s involvement led to 10 American inmates being allowed to go home, in return for one Venezuelan. Al-Khulaifi said of the Venezuelan deal that it was part of a broader mediation effort to reduce tensions between the two countries.

It was certainly appreciated by Washington, with US ambassador to Doha, Timmy Davis, saying in response: “Once again, Qatar has proven itself an indispensable ally to the United States.”

The positive US sentiment towards Qatar has also been reflected in the new year by a deal between the two countries for the renewal of the US military presence at the expansive Al-Udeid Air Base for another 10 years.

More broadly, Qatar’s recently renewed wave of diplomacy efforts harks back to previous initiatives by Qatar to promote itself as a leading global mediator. From 2008-16, it worked on reducing tensions and forging peace agreements in about 10 regional and international conflicts.

These diplomatic efforts took something of a back seat as the country built itself up for the 2022 football World Cup, but it now appears that the government’s appetite for a role as an instrument of soft power has returned.

Economic heading

At the same time, it remains a pressing concern for Doha to develop a replacement anchoring economic initiative to follow in the wake of its World Cup boom. Such direction is currently lacking, and that was palpably evident when details of the state’s budget for 2024 were issued on 21 December.

Outside of the energy sector, there are only a handful of strategic projects that are continuing, such as a national cancer hospital – and nothing on the scale of the stadium and infrastructure build-out for the football tournament, which sustained the country’s non-hydrocarbons economic growth for a decade.

There are only a handful of strategic projects that are continuing – and nothing on the scale of the stadium and infrastructure build-out for the football tournament

Several more large events are scheduled to take place in the coming years, including the 2030 Asian Games, but none are likely to rival the World Cup in terms of spending or impact.

Overall, expenditure is set to reach QR200.9bn ($55.2bn) in 2024, just 1 per cent higher than the year before. Public sector salaries and wages will account for QR64bn of that total, up 2.4 per cent year-on-year. However, major capital expenditure is down 8.3 per cent.

Based on the highly conservative estimate of an average oil price of $60 a barrel in 2024, compared to $65 a barrel in 2023, Qatar’s revenues are set to decrease by 14.5 per cent to QR159bn this year. This reduction will be partly offset by an expected 2.4 per cent rise in non-oil revenues to QR43bn.

In a press conference on 21 December, Finance Minister Ali bin Ahmed al-Kuwari said that if spending remains at the projected level, the budget will produce a surplus of QR1.1bn, compared to the 2023 budget surplus estimate of QR29bn. However, Qatar also plans to pay off QR7.3bn of debt during the year, meaning the exchequer is projected to realise a deficit of QR6.2bn.

James Swanston, Middle East and North Africa economist at London-based Capital Economics, said the spending plans could yet be expanded. “Qatar’s 2024 state budget showed a slight fiscal loosening … and, if anything, officials may raise spending even further,” he said.

There is plenty of room for manoeuvre given the country’s ample gas reserves and low debts. Qatar’s public debt shrank from 58.4 per cent of GDP in 2021 to 42.5 per cent in 2022 and is expected to continue to fall to 37.4 per cent by the end of this year.

The Washington-based IMF describes the trajectory of the post-World Cup economy as one of “normalisation”. In a statement issued on 21 November following a visit to Doha, IMF mission chief Ran Bi said: “After very strong performance in 2022, economic growth has been normalising, while the medium-term outlook remains favourable.”

The IMF expects annual output to expand by about 1.75 per cent in the period 2023-25, with the non-hydrocarbons sector growing at 2.75 per cent a year. The IMF’s forecast in October was based on a more optimistic oil price of $79.9 a barrel, however.

Energy expansion

In the absence of another national project of note, Qatar has been doubling down on its investments in the expansion and development of its upstream gas infrastructure.

In May, QatarEnergy awarded the $10bn contract for the development of two new liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains at North Field South to the joint venture of France’s Technip Energies and Greece’s Consolidated Contractors Company. This built on a similarly significant $13bn contract awarded in 2021 to Japan’s Chiyoda and Technip Energies to build four LNG trains as part of the North Field expansion project.

Doha also struck a series of long-term supply deals in 2023 for the output from the expanded North Field, including three 27-year contracts signed in October alone, covering the supply of 3.5 million tonnes a year (t/y) of LNG to both TotalEnergies and Shell, and 1 million t/y to Italian major Eni. The following month, Doha signed a deal to supply a further 3 million t/y over 27 years to China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec).

QatarEnergy chief executive and Minister of State for Energy Affairs, Saad al-Kaabi, said in mid-December that more deals were imminent. Meanwhile, on 28 December, QatarEnergy announced a five-year crude oil supply deal with a Singapore-based subsidiary of Shell, covering up to 18 million barrels a year from January 2024. Al-Kaabi said it was his company’s first-ever five-year crude sales agreement.

There remains a ready market for the country’s natural gas, not least as the world’s energy transition fuel of choice, as a halfway step away from more polluting oil and coal. Doha nevertheless knows that it needs to find more non-hydrocarbons revenue sources. In the IMF’s November statement, Bi said the country’s plans include “accelerating revenue diversification through further mobilisation of non-hydrocarbons tax revenues”, but exactly what this means in practice has yet to be spelt out.

MEED's February 2024 special report on Qatar includes: 

> GOVERNMENT & ECONOMY: Qatar’s return to economic normality
> BANKING: Qatar’s banks adjust to new circumstances
> OIL & GAS: Qatar enters period of oil and gas consolidation
> POWER & WATER: Qatar power and water projects to take off
> CONSTRUCTION: Qatar construction enters reboot mode

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11418013/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Top deals signed at Dubai Airshow 2025

    27 November 2025

    The Dubai Airshow 2025 drew to a close on 21 November, with deals exceeding $202bn, double the $101bn secured at the 18th edition in 2023. 

    This new milestone reinforces Dubai’s position as a global aviation hub and central force shaping the future of the aviation and space industries, according to a statement from the Government of Dubai Media Office.

    The 19th edition of the event, held at Dubai World Central under the theme ‘The Future is Here’, also drew record attendance, welcoming 248,788 visitors, including industry leaders, government officials and aviation specialists from across the globe. 

    More than 1,500 exhibitors took part, with 440 participating for the first time, along with 490 military and civil delegations from 115 countries. The show also included 21 national pavilions, 98 chalets, an extra 8,000 square metres of display space, and a startup ecosystem with 120 startups and 50 investors.

    One of the most globally diverse editions to date, this year’s airshow featured the usual mega-orders, but also a surprise fleet pivot and an emerging picture of the region’s biggest players taking control of their futures by influencing the development of tomorrow’s jets and securing their supply chains. 

    Anchor customer

    UAE national carriers placed orders for 502 aircraft during the five-day event, with Emirates leading the charge. On the first day of the airshow, Emirates announced a $38bn order for 65 new Boeing 777-9 aircraft. The airline also ordered 130 GE9X engines from GE Aerospace, which power the new twin-engined planes. 

    The deal gives Boeing a boost after the 777-9’s debut was delayed to 2027 – but equally significantly, it provides strong backing for Boeing’s feasibility study to develop the 777-10, a larger variant of its 777X family, as Emirates pushes to replace its Airbus A380 fleet.

    “Emirates has been open about the fact that we are keen for manufacturers to build larger capacity aircraft, which are more efficient to operate, especially with projected air traffic growth and increasing constraints at airports,” said Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al-Maktoum, chairman and chief executive of Emirates Airline and Group.

    “We fully support Boeing’s feasibility study to develop the 777-10 and have options to convert our latest 777-9 order to the 777-10 or the 777-8.”

    Several days later, Emirates also ordered eight more A350-900 aircraft, worth $3.4bn and powered by Rolls-Royce Trent XWB84 engines, while also urging Airbus to explore a larger version of its A350-1000 wide-body.

    Emirates’ commitment to new aircraft at the Dubai Airshow 2025 is worth $41.4bn at list prices, and brings the airline’s total wide-body aircraft orders to 375, with deliveries scheduled through 2038.

    It was also announced that Emirates would deploy Starlink Wi-Fi across its entire in-service fleet, beginning with Boeing 777 aircraft in November 2025 and completing the rollout by mid-2027.

    Airbus pivot

    Flydubai also signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Boeing to purchase 75 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft valued at $13bn. In one of the show’s biggest strategic shifts, a further MoU was signed with Airbus for 150 A321neo aircraft, making the airline a new Airbus customer.

    Sheikh Ahmed, also chairman and CEO of flydubai, said this addition would diversify the airline’s narrow-body fleet and “enable flydubai to play a key role in the success of Dubai World Central’s expansion plans, an airport we aim to become the largest airport in the world”.

    “We look forward to establishing a strong and enduring partnership between flydubai and Airbus,” he said. 

    Etihad Airways confirmed an order for 32 new Airbus aircraft, including freighters, marking a significant expansion of its wide-body fleet, while Gulf Air, Bahrain’s national carrier, finalised a firm order for 15 787 Dreamliners with options for three more as the carrier looks to further develop its international network. The order adds three Boeing 787s to the airline’s commitment this July and brings Gulf Air’s order book to 17 of the versatile widebody jets.

    Saudi Arabia's emerging airline, Riyadh Air, confirmed a purchase of 120 CFM LEAP-1A engines for its incoming A321neo fleet.

    Taking control

    In a clear sign that Gulf airlines are taking charge of their supply chains, Emirates and France's Safran Seats signed an MoU to bring a manufacturing and plane seat assembly factory to Dubai. The joint industrial cooperation, the first of its kind, will initially focus on Emirates’ business and economy class seats for cabin retrofit projects, with plans to expand into new aircraft in the future.

    “This agreement with Safran marks a pivotal and strategic cooperation that establishes Dubai as an aerospace manufacturing hub,” commented Sheikh Ahmed. “We're bringing world-class seat production capabilities and supply chain to our doorstep, creating highly skilled jobs, and developing capabilities to support Emirates and produce seats for export to other carriers.”

    Emirates is also securing its own engine maintenance capabilities, signing an MoU with Rolls Royce to conduct engine maintenance, repair and overhaul on its own A380 fleet at a new plant in Dubai from 2027.

    Green airline fuel

    Sustainability was a core priority at the airshow, with initiatives including the supply of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) for participating aircraft, the use of electric and propane-powered ground support equipment in partnership with Jetex, and exhibition halls run entirely on renewable energy.

    On the sidelines of the event, Emirates and Enoc Group signed a memorandum of understanding to explore and develop joint initiatives for the supply of SAF to Emirates at its Dubai hub.

    Defence deals

    Capping the exhibition were the 36 deals signed on behalf of the Ministry of Defence and Abu Dhabi Police by the UAE’s Tawazun council – the national authority mandated to enable, regulate and sustain the UAE’s defence and security industrial ecosystem. Valued at AED25.455bn, the deals included contracts for drones, rescue gear, aircraft parts and support.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15167232/main.gif
    Marianne Makdisi
  • Prequalification begins for Riyadh King Salman Stadium

    27 November 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s Sports Ministry has issued a notice inviting companies to prequalify for a contract to design and build the King Salman International Stadium in Riyadh.

    The notice was issued on 26 November, with a prequalification deadline of 16 February.

    The stadium will cover an area of about 660,000 square metres (sq m) and will have a seating capacity of 92,000.

    The stadium will feature a 150-seat royal suite, 120 hospitality suites, 300 VIP seats and 2,200 dignitary seats.

    The plan also includes several sports facilities covering more than 360,000 sq m, including two training fields and fan zones; a closed sports hall; an Olympic-sized swimming pool; an athletics track; and outdoor courts for volleyball, basketball and padel.

    The new stadium will host the final of the 2034 Fifa World Cup and will serve as the Saudi national football team’s main headquarters.

    US-based architectural firm Populous is the lead architect for the stadium.

    Construction of the stadium is expected to be completed by 2029.

    The stadium will be located next to King Abdulaziz Park.

    Saudi Arabia stadium plans

    In August last year, MEED reported that Saudi Arabia plans to build 11 new stadiums to host the Fifa World Cup in 2034.

    Eight stadiums will be located in Riyadh, four in Jeddah and one each in Al-Khobar, Abha and Neom.

    An additional 10 cities will host training bases. These are Al-Baha, Jazan, Taif, Medina, Alula, Umluj, Tabuk, Hail, Al-Ahsa and Buraidah.

    There are expected to be 134 training sites across the kingdom, including 61 existing facilities and 73 new training venues.

    The kingdom was officially selected to host the 2034 Fifa World Cup through an online convention of Fifa member associations at the Fifa Congress on 11 December 2024.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15166460/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Morocco signs $861m deal for polysilicon plant

    27 November 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Morocco has signed a MD8bn ($861m) investment agreement with GPM Holding to establish the country’s first polysilicon manufacturing plant in the southern province of Tan-Tan.

    GPM Holding is a US-based company and a key partner in Green Power Morocco (GPM), which specialises in the installation and maintenance of photovoltaic solar panels.

    GPM is a joint venture with UAE-based renewable energy company Amea Power.

    The planned facility will be located in the El-Ouatia industrial zone, according to the North African country’s Ministry of Investment.

    The facility will have an annual production capacity of 30,000 tonnes, with 85% earmarked for export.

    The plant is expected to generate 1,500 direct and more than 2,000 indirect jobs and strengthen Morocco’s position in renewable energy supply chains, particularly in the manufacturing of solar panel components, according to the Ministry of Investment.

    Last year, GPM completed a 34MW solar project in Hjar Nhal, south of Tangier, under a corporate power purchase agreement.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15163133/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Kuwait plans gas export pipeline

    27 November 2025

    State-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) is planning a project to develop a new sour gas export pipeline from booster station 171 (BS-171).

    According to information published by KOC, the pipeline will have a diameter of 24 inches and will run from the facility known as TP-1 to the Intermediate Slug Catcher (ISC).

    The project, which is located in the southeast of Kuwait, will include the installation of bi-directional pig traps above the new pipeline.

    A pig trap is a section of piping that allows the launch or reception of a pipeline pig, a device used to clean the pipeline.

    The chosen contractor will need to provide:

    • Valves
    • Piping
    • Fittings
    • Civil services
    • Structural services
    • Electrical and instrumentation services
    • Tie-ins
    • Testing services
    • Pre-commissioning services
    • Commissioning services

    Kuwait is trying to boost project activity in its upstream sector.

    The country’s national oil company, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, is aiming to increase oil production capacity to 4 million barrels a day (b/d) by 2035.

    In August, Kuwait announced that it was producing 3.2 million b/d.

    Earlier this month, KOC said it was planning to spend KD1.2bn ($3.92bn) on its exploration drilling programme through 2030.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15163075/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Emarat awards contract for Dubai airport jet fuel pipeline

    26 November 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dubai’s Emirates General Petroleum Corporation (Emarat) has awarded a contract for engineering services for a project to build a new jet-fuel supply pipeline to Al-Maktoum International airport in the emirate.

    The contract for end-to-end engineering design services has been won by Bilfinger Middle East, a subsidiary of Germany-headquartered Bilfinger Tebodin.

    The expansion of Al-Maktoum International airport is estimated to be valued at $35bn. The government approved the updated designs and timelines for its largest construction project in April 2024.

    In a statement, the authorities said the plan is for all operations from Dubai International airport to be transferred to Al-Maktoum International within 10 years.

    The statement added that the project will create housing demand for 1 million people around the airport.

    In September last year, MEED exclusively reported that a team comprising Austria’s Coop Himmelb(l)au and Lebanon’s Dar Al-Handasah had been confirmed as the lead masterplanning and design consultants on the expansion of Al-Maktoum airport.

    Construction on the first phase has already begun. In May, MEED exclusively reported that DAEP had awarded a AED1bn ($272m) deal to UAE firm Binladin Contracting Group to construct the second runway at the airport.

    The enabling works on the terminal are also ongoing and are being undertaken by Abu Dhabi-based Tristar E&C.

    Construction works on the project’s first phase are expected to be completed by 2032.

    ALSO READ: Dubai selects Al-Maktoum airport substructure contractor

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15160792/main0620.jpg
    Indrajit Sen