meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Qatar’s return to economic normality

8 January 2024

 

Diplomacy, not economics, was the flavour of the fourth quarter for Qatar, which has become active again in the conflict resolution arena in recent months, mediating in disputes as far apart as Gaza and Venezuela.

Qatar’s efforts in November to secure a truce in the war between Israel and Hamas secured particularly favourable headlines for Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani and Minister of State Mohammed bin Abdulaziz al-Khulaifi.

Regretfully, the humanitarian truce proved short-lived, and further efforts by Qatar, Egypt and others to forge a broader ceasefire have yet to succeed – though Doha has had successes elsewhere with its mediation efforts in recent months.

Equally important in terms of cementing Doha’s ties with Washington was Qatar’s role in securing the release of US prisoners in Venezuela on 20 December. Qatar’s involvement led to 10 American inmates being allowed to go home, in return for one Venezuelan. Al-Khulaifi said of the Venezuelan deal that it was part of a broader mediation effort to reduce tensions between the two countries.

It was certainly appreciated by Washington, with US ambassador to Doha, Timmy Davis, saying in response: “Once again, Qatar has proven itself an indispensable ally to the United States.”

The positive US sentiment towards Qatar has also been reflected in the new year by a deal between the two countries for the renewal of the US military presence at the expansive Al-Udeid Air Base for another 10 years.

More broadly, Qatar’s recently renewed wave of diplomacy efforts harks back to previous initiatives by Qatar to promote itself as a leading global mediator. From 2008-16, it worked on reducing tensions and forging peace agreements in about 10 regional and international conflicts.

These diplomatic efforts took something of a back seat as the country built itself up for the 2022 football World Cup, but it now appears that the government’s appetite for a role as an instrument of soft power has returned.

Economic heading

At the same time, it remains a pressing concern for Doha to develop a replacement anchoring economic initiative to follow in the wake of its World Cup boom. Such direction is currently lacking, and that was palpably evident when details of the state’s budget for 2024 were issued on 21 December.

Outside of the energy sector, there are only a handful of strategic projects that are continuing, such as a national cancer hospital – and nothing on the scale of the stadium and infrastructure build-out for the football tournament, which sustained the country’s non-hydrocarbons economic growth for a decade.

There are only a handful of strategic projects that are continuing – and nothing on the scale of the stadium and infrastructure build-out for the football tournament

Several more large events are scheduled to take place in the coming years, including the 2030 Asian Games, but none are likely to rival the World Cup in terms of spending or impact.

Overall, expenditure is set to reach QR200.9bn ($55.2bn) in 2024, just 1 per cent higher than the year before. Public sector salaries and wages will account for QR64bn of that total, up 2.4 per cent year-on-year. However, major capital expenditure is down 8.3 per cent.

Based on the highly conservative estimate of an average oil price of $60 a barrel in 2024, compared to $65 a barrel in 2023, Qatar’s revenues are set to decrease by 14.5 per cent to QR159bn this year. This reduction will be partly offset by an expected 2.4 per cent rise in non-oil revenues to QR43bn.

In a press conference on 21 December, Finance Minister Ali bin Ahmed al-Kuwari said that if spending remains at the projected level, the budget will produce a surplus of QR1.1bn, compared to the 2023 budget surplus estimate of QR29bn. However, Qatar also plans to pay off QR7.3bn of debt during the year, meaning the exchequer is projected to realise a deficit of QR6.2bn.

James Swanston, Middle East and North Africa economist at London-based Capital Economics, said the spending plans could yet be expanded. “Qatar’s 2024 state budget showed a slight fiscal loosening … and, if anything, officials may raise spending even further,” he said.

There is plenty of room for manoeuvre given the country’s ample gas reserves and low debts. Qatar’s public debt shrank from 58.4 per cent of GDP in 2021 to 42.5 per cent in 2022 and is expected to continue to fall to 37.4 per cent by the end of this year.

The Washington-based IMF describes the trajectory of the post-World Cup economy as one of “normalisation”. In a statement issued on 21 November following a visit to Doha, IMF mission chief Ran Bi said: “After very strong performance in 2022, economic growth has been normalising, while the medium-term outlook remains favourable.”

The IMF expects annual output to expand by about 1.75 per cent in the period 2023-25, with the non-hydrocarbons sector growing at 2.75 per cent a year. The IMF’s forecast in October was based on a more optimistic oil price of $79.9 a barrel, however.

Energy expansion

In the absence of another national project of note, Qatar has been doubling down on its investments in the expansion and development of its upstream gas infrastructure.

In May, QatarEnergy awarded the $10bn contract for the development of two new liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains at North Field South to the joint venture of France’s Technip Energies and Greece’s Consolidated Contractors Company. This built on a similarly significant $13bn contract awarded in 2021 to Japan’s Chiyoda and Technip Energies to build four LNG trains as part of the North Field expansion project.

Doha also struck a series of long-term supply deals in 2023 for the output from the expanded North Field, including three 27-year contracts signed in October alone, covering the supply of 3.5 million tonnes a year (t/y) of LNG to both TotalEnergies and Shell, and 1 million t/y to Italian major Eni. The following month, Doha signed a deal to supply a further 3 million t/y over 27 years to China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec).

QatarEnergy chief executive and Minister of State for Energy Affairs, Saad al-Kaabi, said in mid-December that more deals were imminent. Meanwhile, on 28 December, QatarEnergy announced a five-year crude oil supply deal with a Singapore-based subsidiary of Shell, covering up to 18 million barrels a year from January 2024. Al-Kaabi said it was his company’s first-ever five-year crude sales agreement.

There remains a ready market for the country’s natural gas, not least as the world’s energy transition fuel of choice, as a halfway step away from more polluting oil and coal. Doha nevertheless knows that it needs to find more non-hydrocarbons revenue sources. In the IMF’s November statement, Bi said the country’s plans include “accelerating revenue diversification through further mobilisation of non-hydrocarbons tax revenues”, but exactly what this means in practice has yet to be spelt out.

MEED's February 2024 special report on Qatar includes: 

> GOVERNMENT & ECONOMY: Qatar’s return to economic normality
> BANKING: Qatar’s banks adjust to new circumstances
> OIL & GAS: Qatar enters period of oil and gas consolidation
> POWER & WATER: Qatar power and water projects to take off
> CONSTRUCTION: Qatar construction enters reboot mode

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11418013/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Oman’s growth forecast points upwards

    24 December 2025

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15306449/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • December 2025: Data drives regional projects

    23 December 2025

    Click here to download the PDF

    Includes: Top inward FDI locations by project volume | Brent spot price | Construction output

    MEED’s January 2026 report on Oman includes:

    > COMMENT: Oman steadies growth with strategic restraint
    > ECONOMY: Oman pursues diversification amid regional concerns
    > BANKING: Oman banks feel impact of stronger economy
    > OIL & GAS: LNG goals galvanise Oman’s oil and gas sector
    > POWER & WATER: Oman prepares for a wave of IPP awards
    > CONSTRUCTION: Momentum builds in construction sector

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15306140/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • Local firm bids lowest for Kuwait substation deal

    22 December 2025

    The local Al-Ahleia Switchgear Company has submitted the lowest price of KD33.9m ($110.3m) for a contract to build a 400/132/11 kV substation at the South Surra township for Kuwait’s Public Authority for Housing Welfare (PAHW).

    The bid was marginally lower than the two other offers of KD35.1m and KD35.5m submitted respectively by Saudi Arabia’s National Contracting Company (NCC) and India’s Larsen & Toubro.

    PAHW is expected to take about three months to evaluate the prices before selecting the successful contractor.

    The project is one of several transmission and distribution projects either out to bid or recently awarded by Kuwait’s main affordable housing client.

    This year alone, it has awarded two contracts worth more than $100m for cable works at its 1Z, 2Z, 3Z and 4Z 400kV substations at Al-Istiqlal City, and two deals totalling just under $280m for the construction of seven 132/11kV substations in the same township.

    Most recently, it has tendered two contracts to build seven 132/11kV main substations at its affordable housing project, west of Kuwait City. The bid deadline for the two deals covering the MS-01 through to MS-08 substations is 8 January.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15305745/main.gif
    Edward James
  • Saudi-Dutch JV awards ‘supercentre’ metals reclamation project

    22 December 2025

    The local Advanced Circular Materials Company (ACMC), a joint venture of the Netherlands-based Shell & AMG Recycling BV (SARBV) and local firm United Company for Industry (UCI), has awarded the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for the first phase of its $500m-plus metals reclamation complex in Jubail.

    The contract, estimated to be worth in excess of $200m, was won by China TianChen Engineering Corporation (TCC), a subsidiary of China National Chemical Engineering Company (CNCEC), following the issue of the tender in July 2024.

    Under the terms of the deal, TCC will process gasification ash generated at Saudi Aramco’s Jizan refining complex on the Red Sea coast to produce battery-grade vanadium oxide and vanadium electrolyte for vanadium redox flow batteries. AMG will provide the licensed technology required for the production process.

    The works are the first of four planned phases at the catalyst and gasification ash recycling ‘Supercentre’, which is located at the PlasChem Park in Jubail Industrial City 2 alongside the Sadara integrated refining and petrochemical complex.

    Phase 2 will expand the facility to process spent catalysts from heavy oil upgrading facilities to produce ferrovanadium for the steel industry and/or additional battery-grade vanadium oxide.

    Phase 3 involves installing a manufacturing facility for residue-upgrading catalysts.

    In the fourth phase, a vanadium electrolyte production plant will be developed.

    The developers expect a total reduction of 3.6 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions a year when the four phases of the project are commissioned.

    SARBV first announced its intention to build a metal reclamation and catalyst manufacturing facility in Saudi Arabia in November 2019. The kingdom’s Ministry of Investment, then known as the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (Sagia), supported the project.

    In July 2022, SARBV and UCI signed the agreement to formalise their joint venture and build the proposed facility.

    The project has received support from Saudi Aramco’s Namaat industrial investment programme. Aramco, at the time, also signed an agreement with the joint venture to offtake vanadium-bearing gasification ash from its Jizan refining complex.

    Photo credit: SARBV

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15305326/main.gif
    Edward James
  • QatarEnergy LNG awards $4bn gas project package

    22 December 2025

    QatarEnergy LNG, a subsidiary of state-owned QatarEnergy, has awarded the main engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) contract for a major package for the second phase of its North Field Production Sustainability (NFPS) project.

    A consortium comprising the Italian contractor Saipem and state-owned China Offshore Oil Engineering Company (COOEC) has secured the EPCI contract for the COMP5 package. The contract value is $4bn, with Saipem declaring its share to be worth $3.1bn.

    Milan-headquartered Saipem said the contract will run for about five years. The scope of work comprises engineering, procurement, fabrication and installation of two compression complexes, each including a compression platform, a living quarters platform, a flare platform supporting the gas combustion system, and the related interconnecting bridges. Each complex will have a total weight of about 68,000 tonnes.

    Offshore installation operations will be carried out by Saipem’s De He construction vessel in 2029 and 2030.

    MEED previously reported that the following contractors submitted bids for the NFPS phase two COMP5 package:

    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India)
    • McDermott (US)
    • Saipem/China Offshore Oil Engineering Company (Italy/China)

    QatarEnergy LNG, formerly Qatargas, is said to have issued the tender for the NFPS phase two COMP5 package in the first quarter of the year.

    Contractors submitted technical bids for the COMP5 package in late June, while commercial bids were submitted by 8 October, as per sources.

    Based upon initial evaluation of bids by QatarEnergy LNG, L&TEH has emerged as the lowest bidder for the COMP5 package, followed by McDermott, with the consortium of Saipem and COOEC in third place, MEED reported in late October.

    In the weeks following that, the project operator is said to have engaged all bidders for a final round of negotiations, during which the consortium of Saipem and COOEC is believed to have “clinched the deal”, according to sources.

    The detailed scope of work on the COMP5 package covers the EPCI work on the following:

    • Two gas compression platforms, each weighing 30,000-35,000 tonnes, plus jacket
    • Two living quarters platforms, plus jacket
    • Two gas flare platforms, plus jacket
    • Brownfield modification work at two complexes
    NFPS scheme

    QatarEnergy’s North Field liquefied natural gas (LNG) expansion programme requires the state enterprise to pump large volumes of gas from the North Field offshore reserve to feed the three phases of the estimated $40bn-plus programme.

    QatarEnergy has already invested billions of dollars in engineering, procurement and construction works on the two phases of the NFPS project, which aims to maintain steady gas feedstock for the North Field LNG expansion phases.

    The second NFPS phase will mainly involve building gas compression facilities to sustain and gradually increase gas production from Qatar’s offshore North Field gas reserve over the long term.

    Saipem has been the most successful contractor on the second NFPS phase, securing work worth a total of $8.5bn.

    QatarEnergy LNG awarded Saipem a $4.5bn order in October 2022 to build and install gas compression facilities. The main scope of work on the package, which is known as EPCI 2, covers two large gas compression complexes that will comprise decks, jackets, topsides, interconnecting bridges, flare platforms, living quarters and interface modules.

    The gas compression complexes – CP65 and CP75 – will weigh 62,000 tonnes and 63,000 tonnes, respectively, and will be the largest fixed steel jacket compression platforms ever built.

    Following that, Saipem won combined packages COMP3A and COMP3B of the NFPS project’s second phase in September last year.

    The scope of work on the combined packages encompasses the EPCI of a total of six platforms, approximately 100 kilometres (km) of corrosion resistance alloy rigid subsea pipelines of 28-inches and 24-inches diameter, 100km of subsea composite cables, 150km of fibre optic cables and several other subsea units.

    Separately, QatarEnergy LNG awarded McDermott the contract for the NFPS second phase package known as EPCI 1, or COMP1, in July 2023. The scope of work on the estimated $1bn-plus contract is to install a subsea gas pipeline network at the North Field gas development.

    In March this year, India’s Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (LTEH) won the main contract for the combined 4A and 4B package, which is the fourth package of the second phase of the NFPS project and is estimated to be valued at $4bn-$5bn.

    The main scope of work on the package is the EPCI of two large gas compression systems that will be known as CP8S and CP4N, each weighing 25,000-35,000 tonnes. The contract scope also includes compression platforms, flare gas platforms and other associated structures.

    LTHE sub-contracted detailed engineering and design works on the combined 4A and 4B package to French contractor Technip Energies.

    NFPS first phase

    Saipem is also executing the EPCI works on the entire first phase of the NFPS project, which consists of two main packages.

    Through the first phase of the NFPS scheme, QatarEnergy LNG aims to increase the early gas field production capacity of the North Field offshore development to 110 million tonnes a year.

    QatarEnergy LNG awarded Saipem the contract for the EPCI package in February 2021. The package is the larger of the two NFPS phase one packages and has a value of $1.7bn.

    Saipem’s scope of work on the EPCI package encompasses building several offshore facilities for extracting and transporting natural gas, including platforms, supporting and connecting structures, subsea cables and anti-corrosion internally clad pipelines.

    The scope of work also includes decommissioning a pipeline and other significant modifications to existing offshore facilities.

    In addition, in April 2021, QatarEnergy LNG awarded Saipem two options for additional work within the EPCI package, worth about $350m.

    QatarEnergy LNG awarded Saipem the second package of the NFPS phase one project, estimated to be worth $1bn, in March 2021.

    Saipem’s scope of work on the package, which is known as EPCL, mainly covers installing three offshore export trunklines running almost 300km from their respective offshore platforms to the QatarEnergy LNG north and south plants located in Ras Laffan Industrial City.

    Saipem performed the front-end engineering and design work on the main production package of the first phase of the NFPS as part of a $20m contract that it was awarded in January 2019. This provided a competitive advantage to the Italian contractor in its bid to win the package.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15305330/main2239.jpg
    Indrajit Sen