Meed | Qatar’s return to economic normality

Qatar’s return to economic normality

8 January 2024

Diplomacy, not economics, was the flavour of the fourth quarter for Qatar, which has become active again in the conflict resolution arena in recent months, mediating in disputes as far apart as Gaza and Venezuela.

Qatar’s efforts in November to secure a truce in the war between Israel and Hamas secured particularly favourable headlines for Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani and Minister of State Mohammed bin Abdulaziz al-Khulaifi.

Regretfully, the humanitarian truce proved short-lived, and further efforts by Qatar, Egypt and others to forge a broader ceasefire have yet to succeed – though Doha has had successes elsewhere with its mediation efforts in recent months.

Equally important in terms of cementing Doha’s ties with Washington was Qatar’s role in securing the release of US prisoners in Venezuela on 20 December. Qatar’s involvement led to 10 American inmates being allowed to go home, in return for one Venezuelan. Al-Khulaifi said of the Venezuelan deal that it was part of a broader mediation effort to reduce tensions between the two countries.

It was certainly appreciated by Washington, with US ambassador to Doha, Timmy Davis, saying in response: “Once again, Qatar has proven itself an indispensable ally to the United States.”

The positive US sentiment towards Qatar has also been reflected in the new year by a deal between the two countries for the renewal of the US military presence at the expansive Al-Udeid Air Base for another 10 years.

More broadly, Qatar’s recently renewed wave of diplomacy efforts harks back to previous initiatives by Qatar to promote itself as a leading global mediator. From 2008-16, it worked on reducing tensions and forging peace agreements in about 10 regional and international conflicts.

These diplomatic efforts took something of a back seat as the country built itself up for the 2022 football World Cup, but it now appears that the government’s appetite for a role as an instrument of soft power has returned.

Economic heading

At the same time, it remains a pressing concern for Doha to develop a replacement anchoring economic initiative to follow in the wake of its World Cup boom. Such direction is currently lacking, and that was palpably evident when details of the state’s budget for 2024 were issued on 21 December.

Outside of the energy sector, there are only a handful of strategic projects that are continuing, such as a national cancer hospital – and nothing on the scale of the stadium and infrastructure build-out for the football tournament, which sustained the country’s non-hydrocarbons economic growth for a decade.

There are only a handful of strategic projects that are continuing – and nothing on the scale of the stadium and infrastructure build-out for the football tournament

Several more large events are scheduled to take place in the coming years, including the 2030 Asian Games, but none are likely to rival the World Cup in terms of spending or impact.

Overall, expenditure is set to reach QR200.9bn ($55.2bn) in 2024, just 1 per cent higher than the year before. Public sector salaries and wages will account for QR64bn of that total, up 2.4 per cent year-on-year. However, major capital expenditure is down 8.3 per cent.

Based on the highly conservative estimate of an average oil price of $60 a barrel in 2024, compared to $65 a barrel in 2023, Qatar’s revenues are set to decrease by 14.5 per cent to QR159bn this year. This reduction will be partly offset by an expected 2.4 per cent rise in non-oil revenues to QR43bn.

In a press conference on 21 December, Finance Minister Ali bin Ahmed al-Kuwari said that if spending remains at the projected level, the budget will produce a surplus of QR1.1bn, compared to the 2023 budget surplus estimate of QR29bn. However, Qatar also plans to pay off QR7.3bn of debt during the year, meaning the exchequer is projected to realise a deficit of QR6.2bn.

James Swanston, Middle East and North Africa economist at London-based Capital Economics, said the spending plans could yet be expanded. “Qatar’s 2024 state budget showed a slight fiscal loosening … and, if anything, officials may raise spending even further,” he said.

There is plenty of room for manoeuvre given the country’s ample gas reserves and low debts. Qatar’s public debt shrank from 58.4 per cent of GDP in 2021 to 42.5 per cent in 2022 and is expected to continue to fall to 37.4 per cent by the end of this year.

The Washington-based IMF describes the trajectory of the post-World Cup economy as one of “normalisation”. In a statement issued on 21 November following a visit to Doha, IMF mission chief Ran Bi said: “After very strong performance in 2022, economic growth has been normalising, while the medium-term outlook remains favourable.”

The IMF expects annual output to expand by about 1.75 per cent in the period 2023-25, with the non-hydrocarbons sector growing at 2.75 per cent a year. The IMF’s forecast in October was based on a more optimistic oil price of $79.9 a barrel, however.

Energy expansion

In the absence of another national project of note, Qatar has been doubling down on its investments in the expansion and development of its upstream gas infrastructure.

In May, QatarEnergy awarded the $10bn contract for the development of two new liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains at North Field South to the joint venture of France’s Technip Energies and Greece’s Consolidated Contractors Company. This built on a similarly significant $13bn contract awarded in 2021 to Japan’s Chiyoda and Technip Energies to build four LNG trains as part of the North Field expansion project.

Doha also struck a series of long-term supply deals in 2023 for the output from the expanded North Field, including three 27-year contracts signed in October alone, covering the supply of 3.5 million tonnes a year (t/y) of LNG to both TotalEnergies and Shell, and 1 million t/y to Italian major Eni. The following month, Doha signed a deal to supply a further 3 million t/y over 27 years to China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec).

QatarEnergy chief executive and Minister of State for Energy Affairs, Saad al-Kaabi, said in mid-December that more deals were imminent. Meanwhile, on 28 December, QatarEnergy announced a five-year crude oil supply deal with a Singapore-based subsidiary of Shell, covering up to 18 million barrels a year from January 2024. Al-Kaabi said it was his company’s first-ever five-year crude sales agreement.

There remains a ready market for the country’s natural gas, not least as the world’s energy transition fuel of choice, as a halfway step away from more polluting oil and coal. Doha nevertheless knows that it needs to find more non-hydrocarbons revenue sources. In the IMF’s November statement, Bi said the country’s plans include “accelerating revenue diversification through further mobilisation of non-hydrocarbons tax revenues”, but exactly what this means in practice has yet to be spelt out.

MEED's February 2024 special report on Qatar includes:

> GOVERNMENT & ECONOMY: Qatar’s return to economic normality
> BANKING: Qatar’s banks adjust to new circumstances
> OIL & GAS: Qatar enters period of oil and gas consolidation
> POWER & WATER: Qatar power and water projects to take off
> CONSTRUCTION: Qatar construction enters reboot mode

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Dominic Dudley

Exclusive from Meed

Tender issued for Libyan gas project
17 September 2026
Nakheel awards $218m Dubai Islands buildings deal
17 September 2026
Aldar and Mubadala acquire Masdar City Square
17 September 2026
Dubai announces new 80km highway corridor
16 September 2026
Contractors submit Expo 2030 convention centre interest
16 September 2026

Tender issued for Libyan gas project
17 September 2026
An invitation to bid has been issued for a contract to conduct environmental assessments for the project to expand the Mellitah oil and gas complex in Libya.

The bid submission deadline is 2pm today (17 September) Libyan time.

The scope of the project includes provision of:
- An environmental baseline study (EBS)
- An environmental impact assessment (EIA)
- An environmental management plan (EMP)
The client is Mellitah Oil & Gas (MOG), which is a joint venture of Italy’s Eni and Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC).

MOG is based in Tripoli and operates both onshore and offshore oil and gas facilities.

The joint venture owns and operates six major oil and gas fields across the North African country.

According to the tender documents, the company that is awarded the contract will need to prepare environmental management measures in compliance with:
- Libyan environmental legislation
- Ministry of Environment requirements
- NOC environmental guidelines
- Applicable international environmental standards and best practices
The expansion of the Mellitah oil and gas complex is part of a project estimated to be worth $8bn.

The wider project is known as the Mellitah Complex Expansion & CO2 Management Integrated Development Project.

It has six main packages:
- Onshore package
- Offshore Structure A
- Offshore Structure E
- Subsea pipeline package
- Site preparation work
- Carbon capture and storage facility
Security issues and political instability have been a major problem for Libya’s oil and gas sector since the country’s civil war started in 2011.

Earlier this month, the Mellitah oil and gas complex was forced to shut down temporarily due to a protest over deteriorating public services.

The existing onshore complex includes housing, processing units, storage facilities and export facilities.

It also serves as the launch point for the Greenstream pipeline, which delivers Libyan gas directly to Italy.

The planned expansion of the complex will involve:
- Construction of a new fourth gas processing train
- Construction of a third condensate train
- Construction of a third natural gas liquids fractionation train
- Construction of a fourth sulphur recovery unit train
- Installation of a hydrogen sulphide enrichment unit
- Installation of a sulphur recovery unit
- Construction of other associated facilities
The Mellitah complex is located about 100 kilometres west of Tripoli and is a key energy facility in the west of the country.
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Wil Crisp

Nakheel awards $218m Dubai Islands buildings deal

17 September 2026

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Dubai-based developer Nakheel, now part of Dubai Holding, has awarded a main construction contract worth more than AED800m ($218m) for phases one and three of Bay Grove Residences at Dubai Islands.

The contract was awarded to the local firm Metac General Contracting Company.

It covers the construction of 537 apartments, comprising one- to four-bedroom units, across seven residential buildings.

Phase one includes 296 units in four buildings, while phase three comprises 241 units across three buildings.

The works are scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Bay Grove Residences will ultimately comprise 1,154 homes across 15 buildings. Planning is under way for the remaining 617 homes in phases two and four, with further contract awards expected.

In August last year, Nakheel awarded a AED2.6bn ($708m) contract to Abu Dhabi-based Fibrex Contracting to build the Bay Villas project at Dubai Islands. The contract includes constructing 636 villas.

In April this year, another AED527m ($143m) contract was awarded to local firm Al-Nasr Contracting Company to construct the primary infrastructure and utilities works on Island B at the development.

The Dubai Islands development consists of five islands spanning 18.6 square kilometres. It features more than 59 kilometres (km) of waterfront and 20km of beaches, as well as parks, golf courses, promenades and cycling paths.

The offshore island project gained renewed momentum in 2022, when Nakheel unveiled a new masterplan and rebranded it as Dubai Islands.

The reclaimed islands were originally part of the Palm Deira project, which was partially completed before being put on hold in 2008.

READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

> AGENDA: Gulf nuclear revival takes shape

> MARKET FOCUS: Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive under fire

> INDUSTRY REPORT: Gas processing takes centre stage in Mena region

> INTERVIEW: Emsteel persists with business productivity and efficiency

> TUNNELS: The Gulf’s next construction boom is happening underground

To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

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Yasir Iqbal

Aldar and Mubadala acquire Masdar City Square
17 September 2026

Abu Dhabi-based sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investment Company and local developer Aldar have completed the acquisition of Masdar City Square at Masdar City, in a transaction valued at AED918m ($250m).

The deal was executed through their joint venture established in 2024.

Masdar City Square comprises more than 47,000 square metres (sq m) of net leasable area across seven office buildings.

Completed in Q1 2026, the development is 99% occupied. Tenants include Taqa, the Department of Energy, Emirates College and the Mohamed Bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence.

The transaction expands the joint venture’s real estate portfolio in Masdar City, which is now valued at AED4.7bn ($1.3bn).

Masdar City is one of the region’s leading hubs for clean energy, artificial intelligence, advanced research and sustainable urban development.

The joint venture acquired The Link project at Masdar City for AED654m ($178m) in April.

Comprising about 32,000 sq m of net leasable area across five buildings, The Link is fully leased to a portfolio of major tenants, including Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) and the Mohamed Bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence.

The asset includes Grade A, Leed Platinum office space, a net-zero-energy headquarters building, a multi-use hall and residential accommodation, supporting its position as a high-performing, integrated component of Masdar City.

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Yasir Iqbal
Dubai announces new 80km highway corridor
16 September 2026

Dubai has approved the construction of the new fourth corridor, a major highway programme aimed at boosting inter-emirate connectivity, increasing road capacity and easing congestion.

The corridor will extend 80 kilometres, from Al-Faya Road in Abu Dhabi to Al-Shanouf Road in Sharjah.

It will include 12 lanes, 72 bridges and 17 tunnels.

The project is expected to reduce travel times by up to 60% and serve more than 3.1 million people, while providing links to Al-Maktoum International airport and Etihad Rail.

It will have the capacity to accommodate 24,000 vehicles per hour in each direction.

The project will be delivered in two phases. The first phase, running from Al-Shanouf Road to Dubai-Al Ain Road, will be delivered at a cost of AED3.5bn ($953m).

The second phase will stretch from Dubai-Al Ain Road to Al-Faya Road in Abu Dhabi.

Hamdan bin Mohammed: In line with the directives of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum to boost investment in infrastructure, I approved the New Fourth Corridor to strengthen Dubai’s road network and enhance connectivity with the UAE’s federal road network.… pic.twitter.com/zlIyY2yKBN

— Dubai Media Office (@DXBMediaOffice) September 16, 2026

The scheme adds a fourth spine to a network that has long relied on three main corridors: the E11 (Sheikh Zayed Road/Al-Ittihad Road); the E311 (Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Road) and the E611 (Emirates Road), which together carry more than 850,000 vehicles commuting between Dubai and the northern emirates daily.

That concentration has made the route one of the country’s most congested, with peak-hour bottlenecks a persistent problem for residents. The new corridor is designed to divert a significant share of that traffic onto a higher-capacity route, rather than add pressure to the existing network.

The project also aligns with the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan, which anticipates population growth to 5.8 million by 2040 and calls for the expansion of roads, railways, airports and ports to support that growth and reinforce Dubai’s position as a global trading hub. This is reflected in the corridor’s direct links to Al-Maktoum International airport and Etihad Rail.

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Yasir Iqbal

Contractors submit Expo 2030 convention centre interest

16 September 2026

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Expo 2030 Riyadh Company (ERC), responsible for delivering the Expo 2030 Riyadh venue, received contractor interest on 14 September for a contract to design and build a convention centre in the site's Collaboration District.

Construction is slated to begin in January 2027 and take 29 months. The development will cover a total gross external area of more than 28,000 square metres (sq m). The total programme area will be about 22,000 sq m and the gross floor area will be 17,000 sq m. The maximum height of the building will be 41.5 metres.

The venue will be laid out across two levels, with a mezzanine, roof terraces and a 4,030 sq m basement, in addition to mechanical, electrical and plumbing and back-of-house spaces.

Two flexible exhibition halls are planned, covering a combined 7,280 sq m, as well as 3,800 sq m of pre-function space, 650 sq m dedicated to meeting rooms and 2,200 sq m of outdoor exhibition space in the north and south plazas.

The appointed main contractor will assume responsibility for packages including the early works substructure and the lead design consultant's deliverables, while carrying out the full scope of superstructure, above-ground waterproofing, external facades, masonry, base build and specialised fit-outs for VVIP, VIP and visitor areas.

Further scope includes delivering comprehensive MEP services; vertical transportation; final infrastructure tie-points; public-realm hard and soft landscaping; testing, commissioning, handover documentation; and management of the defects liability period.

The expression of interest notice was floated on 13 September.

The unusually brief expression of interest deadline of just one day underscores a compressed procurement timeline.

This accelerated tender and evaluation schedule signals that project organisers are operating under time pressure to secure contractors and maintain the tight schedule required ahead of the event's opening.

ERC expects to award the formal contract by the end of this year and begin construction in January next year.

The project is due for completion in early 2030, in time for the main event in October of that year.

Site progress

Construction activity at the Expo site is accelerating, with Riyadh moving to award its first major vertical contracts and advancing infrastructure works across the programme.

Earlier this month, MEED exclusively reported that ERC has tendered a contract to deliver the Souq areas within the expo site.

These areas are divided into five precincts, with a total development area of about 300,000 sq m.

In September, Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City awarded a design-and-build contract for the construction of a new metro station catering to the Expo 2030 site.

In April, ERC awarded two contracts for the next phase of infrastructure works at the site to local firm Alyamama Company.

The scope covered the construction of road networks and infrastructure for water, sewage, electricity, telecommunications and electric vehicle (EV) charging.

These awards followed ERC’s January award of an estimated SR1bn ($267m) contract for initial infrastructure works at the site to local firm Nesma & Partners.

That scope covered about 50 kilometres of integrated infrastructure networks, including internal roads and essential utilities such as water, sewage, electrical and communications systems and EV charging stations.

The masterplan covers 6 square kilometres, making it one of the largest sites ever designated for a World Expo event. Situated north of the Saudi capital, the site will be located near the future King Salman International airport and will provide direct access to landmarks within Riyadh.

The Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth vehicle, launched ERC – a wholly owned subsidiary – in June 2025 to build and operate facilities for Expo 2030.