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Qatar enters 2026 with heady expectations

16 January 2026

 

Heading into 2026, Qatar is armed with the most optimistic real GDP growth forecast of any country in the region – a heady 6.1% growth rate, outstripping the closest GCC rival by a full percentage point, according to the IMF. It also represents a significant jump from Qatar’s 2.9% real GDP growth rate in 2025, for reasons that are fairly apparent.

The near-term macroeconomic picture for Qatar is also extremely robust. Globally, natural gas demand returned to growth in 2024, and expansion continued in 2025. Natural gas prices likewise remain robust – more so than oil prices – and are now being supported by rising energy use associated with the global artificial intelligence data-centre build-out. Momentum in the non-hydrocarbon sector has also been steadily building, with growth surging to 4.4% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025.

The decisive catalyst, nevertheless, remains liquefied natural gas (LNG). Amid stable prices and rising demand, Qatar continues to expand capacity at pace. The phased start-up of the North Field East expansion – with its first train expected to enter service in mid-to-late 2026, and additional capacity coming online through 2027 – is expected to lift LNG output to 126 million tonnes a year, reinforcing gas’s dominance of Qatar’s export earnings while delivering higher cash flow and multiplier effects across the economy.

Between Qatar’s hydrocarbon receipts and inbound investment on the one hand, and its relatively modest import requirements on the other, Doha is currently nurturing a double-digit current account balance. This is underpinned by LNG exports and steady demand from Asian partners, with China remaining Qatar’s largest trading counterpart. Despite its wide trade surplus, the country’s fiscal balance is nevertheless walking a tightrope between surplus and deficit as Doha commits every spare riyal to strategic spending.

Capital expenditure

Project spending in the country has been buoyant for the past five years, with an average of more than $20bn in contract awards annually and rising above $22bn in each of the past two years. This is a sharp step up from an average of $14bn in annual awards from 2016 to 2020. At the same time, project awards have outstripped completions, driving the total value of work under execution in the country up by $39bn over the past five years.

In total, Qatar now has more than $100bn-worth of projects under execution – a level of active project work that is 25% higher than the UAE’s in terms of value per capita. Of this, roughly 80% is in the energy and industrial sectors, with the remainder divided among other sectors.

In the energy sector, approximately $45bn in value is split across the North Field East, North Field South and North Field Production Sustainability schemes, highlighting the enormous investments being made in expanding gas production capacity. While Qatar has never stepped back from continuous hydrocarbon investment, current market conditions are clearly boosting confidence in both current and future investment in the gas sector.

Looking ahead, there are similarly expansive developments to come, with a further $100bn-worth of projects moving through pre-execution. In addition to further gas sector work, including the $18bn North Field West scheme, there is also $38bn in upcoming transport projects, including $28bn in prospective rail expansion plans across both the Doha Metro and passenger and freight rail. This is in addition to $11bn in rail schemes currently under way across the Doha Metro and Lusail Light Rail.

While Qatar’s economic diversification plans entail far more than just projects, the scale of project activity is turbocharging non-hydrocarbon growth. A buoyant projects sector attracts expertise, skilled workers and families, and boosts real estate, retail, leisure and the services economy.

A year ago, MEED noted that Doha’s economy was re-emerging from its post-World Cup slump, and this trend has continued. As of mid-2025, accommodation and food services were expanding at double-digit rates. Inflation, by contrast, remains subdued. Consumer prices are estimated to have risen by just 1.4% in 2025 and, while a modest pick-up to 2.6% is expected in 2026, price stability remains one of Qatar’s quieter advantages.

In 2026, the budget announced by the Ministry of Finance commits a further QR62.8bn ($17.2bn) of the QR220.8bn ($60.5bn) total spend to capital expenditure, up by 5% from QR210.2bn in 2025. It projects a modest deficit to be financed through debt issuance – a deliberate choice, rather than a necessity – demonstrating Doha’s firm commitment to counter-cyclical strategic spending.

Anchoring this spending are both Qatar’s diversification-oriented National Vision 2030 and ongoing critical infrastructure plans. Ashghal’s five-year infrastructure programme (2025-29) totals QR81bn ($22.2bn). Social infrastructure plans also anticipate $7bn in school and hospital projects being awarded either this year or next – clear commitments to the education and social-welfare pillars of the 2030 vision.

Governance shifts

In the political landscape, the constitutional referendum of November 2024 marked a turn away from elected legislative representation after the 2021 elections led to social frictions. In October 2025, the Shura Council reverted to full appointment by the emir. The result is a structure that once again prioritises top-down policy execution, favouring agility over participatory experimentation.

Businesses operating in the country face slightly stricter conditions. The Qatarisation Law, fully effective from April 2025, obliges private firms to prioritise Qatari nationals, tightening the labour market. The January 2025 introduction of a 15% global minimum tax for multinationals, meanwhile, aligns Qatar with OECD standards.

Judicial reforms, including a specialised enforcement court and digitised auctions, aim to shorten dispute-resolution timelines, while an anti-corruption strategy spanning 2025 to 2030 seeks to institutionalise transparency across the public and private sectors.

A keen eye for potential corruption is necessary as the Ministry of Finance schedules the launch of 4,464 tenders worth more than QR65bn under the Government Procurement Plan for 2026 – many structured to encourage public-private partnerships.

Qatar’s two brushes with broader Middle East conflict in the past year – both the Iranian strike on the Al-Udeid Air Base in June in retaliation for US strikes on Iran, and the Israeli strike on a Doha suburb in September targeting Hamas political leaders – have, meanwhile, seen the country emerge with stronger security guarantees from the US.

While there remains a chance that the US installation at Al-Udeid could draw Qatar back into tensions with Iran, for now the geopolitical ripples from last year have died down.

The main thing on the horizon for Doha is exactly what the government has set out: ambitious spending, LNG growth, project sector expansion and an unswerving focus on using today’s gas receipts to build an economic ecosystem that endures.

MEED’s February 2026 report on Qatar also includes:

BANKING: Qatar banks search for growth
OIL & GAS: QatarEnergy achieves strategic oil and gas goals in 2025
POWER & WATER: Dukhan solar award drives Qatar’s utility sector
CONSTRUCTION: Infrastructure investments underpin Qatar construction

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John Bambridge

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