meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Qatar banks look to calmer waters in 2025

15 January 2025

 

Doha’s lenders enter 2025 with a sense of quiet confidence, backed by broadly favourable macroeconomic trends shaped by still-solid oil prices and non-oil growth that will provide an uplift for operating conditions and loan growth.

Although these operating conditions are not as supportive for Qatari banks as for their peers in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, growth is nonetheless coming back to the sector, enabling banks to book more loans.

Credit growth is looking stronger. In the first 10 months of 2024, Qatari banks registered an annualised credit growth of 6.3%, more than double that of 2023, which was 2.9%.

“Resuming growth is supporting operating conditions for Qatari banks,” says Amin Sakhri, primary rating analyst at Fitch Ratings.

According to Sakhri, non-oil economic activity is also increasing. But it is the cornerstone hydrocarbons project, the North Field liquefied natural gas (LNG) expansion, that will likely give ballast to lenders in the next two to three years.

By the end of 2025, Qatari LNG production capacity will have risen to 110 million tonnes a year (t/y), ahead of a further increase to 126 million t/y by 2027. That sets the economy up well, with banks positioned to feel the impact.

“The LNG project, which benefits related sub-sectors, also supports credit growth. So there’s also another supportive element for Qatari banks,” says Sakhri.

Robust profitability

Profits have been healthy in the past year, benefitting from banks’ strong capitalisation levels and adequate liquidity.

Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) expects this trend to continue with only a modest drop in net interest margins owing to interest rate cuts – and the impact of replacing non-resident funding (which is high in Qatar relative to other regional banking sectors) with higher-cost domestic funding sources.

Full-year 2024 results are awaited, but indications are it will have proved another solid year for banks’ bottom lines.

Qatar National Bank (QNB), which represents over 50% of total system assets – with just eight domestic commercial banks, it is one of the Gulf’s most concentrated banking sectors – reported a Q3 2024 net profit of QR4.5bn ($1.23bn), a 5.4% increase over the previous year. Loans and advances were up by 11% in the same period.

Profits were helped by still high interest rates in the first half of the year. While the lower interest rate environment will have some erosion effect on margins, Qatari banks are generally less sensitive to rates than other banks in the region.

Other metrics also look healthy. “We’ve seen the return on average equity increasing to 16.7% from 15.8% in 2023. This is despite still high loan impairment charges in Qatar, which are some of the highest in the GCC,” says Sakhri.

Property market uncertainty

One area of weakness is in the real estate sector, which has suffered from excess supply over a number of years, bringing down prices. According to Fitch, the banking sector’s exposure to the real estate and contracting sectors remains high, representing 17% of total sector lending.

“The real estate and construction sectors remain under pressure, and we see that in the banks’ loan books,” says Sakhri. “The cost of risk is still elevated in a GCC context, at 78 basis points in the first nine months of 2024 for the Qatari banking sector as a collective, well above the level observed in the UAE and Saudi Arabia.”

Those real estate pressures have contributed to higher loan impairment charges compared to the rest of the region. S&P envisages non-performing loans (NPLs) remaining elevated at 4% in 2025.

“If you look at stage 2 loans, the average for the Qatari banking sector is around 10-11%, whereas for the UAE and Saudi, it’s about 5%. Some of the smaller banks are heavily exposed to the real estate and construction sectors, leading to about a third of the loan book being classified as Stage 2, which is quite substantial,” says Sakhri.

However, Qatari lenders have tightened their underwriting standards in the real estate and contracting sectors, focusing on government-related projects and assignment of cash flow proceeds to reduce their repayment risks, notes Fitch. Some banks have also been reducing their exposure to these sectors.

In S&P’s view, while continued pressure on real estate prices could accelerate the migration of stage 2 loans to NPLs at some midsize banks, public sector initiatives and interest rate cuts will help prevent a more severe deterioration in asset quality.

Underlying strength

In any case, the sector’s strong capitalisation and conservative provisioning remain two core strengths. The average CET1 stood at a solid 15.5% at the end of September 2024. This, says Fitch, is further supported by strong provisioning practices, with 140% of stage 3 loans covered by provisions, among the strongest in the GCC.

Aside from the real estate exposure, the other key risk in Qatar is its long-standing reliance on external funding. The sector’s non-resident funding accounted for a still-high 42% of the banking sector’s funding at the end of October 2024, and the sector’s net external funding was a substantial 50% of GDP at the end of 2023.

There has been some change as GDP has grown, meaning total funding relative to GDP is decreasing. However, about half of the sector’s funding comes from external sources, which is not expected to reduce significantly.

“Yes, hydrocarbon revenues have been supporting domestic liquidity, but Qatari banks are really quite reliant on external funding. In Saudi Arabia and the UAE, you’re looking at 15%-20% coming from external funding, and Qatar has been traditionally more than twice that,” says Sakhri.

Looking forward, the broader positive impact from the LNG increase will provide improved operating conditions for Qatari lenders, which will impact on banks’ bottom lines – offsetting the lower credit demand that will result from the completion of a number of key infrastructure projects.

What’s more, notes Sakhri, lower rates mean the cost of funding will reduce, which is favourable for Qatari banks because they have some of the highest cost of funds in the GCC, and the impact on net interest margin will be less marked. 

Put that together, and Qatari bank chiefs have reason to view the year as one in which the glass is half-full rather than half-empty.

MEED's February 2025 special report on Qatar includes:

> GOVERNMENT & ECONOMY: Qatar economy rebounds alongside diplomatic activity 
> POWER & WATER: Facility E award jumpstarts Qatar’s utility projects
> DOWNSTREAM: Qatar chemical projects take a step forward

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13260830/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • KBR re-evaluates design for Libya oil project

    10 July 2026

     

    US-headquartered KBR is responsible for re-evaluating the front-end engineering and design (feed) for the project to develop the J6 North Gialo field in Libya, according to industry sources.

    In June, MEED reported that Libya’s Waha Oil Company (WOC), a subsidiary of the state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC), had launched a review into the tender process for the J6 North Gialo oil field development project, and that this would include re-evaluating the feed work.

    The Waha concessions are held by a consortium of Libya’s NOC, which holds 59.16%; TotalEnergies, holding 20.42%; and US-based ConocoPhillips, with 20.42%.

    They are operated by WOC, which is 100% owned by NOC.

    KBR has previously provided engineering services for major national projects in Libya, such as the Great Man-Made River project, which is widely recognised as the largest irrigation project in the world.

    In March, KBR was awarded a contract by Zallaf Exploration, Production & Refining of Oil & Gas Company to provide project management and technical services for the South Refinery project in Libya’s southern city of Ubari.

    Under the terms of the contract, KBR will provide contract management, project management and supporting technical services throughout the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) phases of the project.

    The EPC work is expected to be executed over a 50-month period.

    In its statement, KBR said that the project is aligned with its “long-standing commitment to advancing vital oil and gas infrastructure in Libya”.

    In March, MEED reported that South Korea’s Daewoo had pulled out of the tender process for Libya’s J6 North Gialo oil field development project.

    Daewoo had formed a partnership with Egypt’s Petrojet to participate in the tender process.

    The only other company to submit a bid for the project was UK-based Petrofac, which filed for administration in October last year.

    In January, TotalEnergies signed an agreement extending the Waha concessions agreement up to 31 December 2050.

    This agreement set new fiscal terms, allowing an increase in the production of these concessions that were, at the time, producing about 370,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day (boe/d).

    In January, TotalEnergies said that the deal paved the way for “a new phase of investments, including the development of the North Gialo field, which is expected to add 100,000 boe/d of production”.

    The J6 North Gialo project is the first of three field development projects that WOC has prioritised.

    The other two are known as NC98 and Gialo 3.

    Together, the three projects are expected to double Waha’s production from about 300,000 barrels a day (b/d) of oil to 600,000 b/d.

    The Waha concession covers 13 million acres.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17621475/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Qiddiya to tender high-speed rail in September

    10 July 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City, in collaboration with Qiddiya Investment Company and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP, are expected to float the tender in September for the Qiddiya high-speed rail project in Riyadh.

    MEED understands that the clarification process is ongoing for the engineering, procurement, construction and financing (EPCF), as well as the public-private partnership (PPP) packages.

    The Qiddiya high-speed rail project, also known as Q-Express, will cover 84 kilometres, connecting King Salman International airport and King Abdullah Financial District with Qiddiya City.

    In April, MEED exclusively reported that the clients had received prequalification statements from firms for the EPCF package of the project.

    MEED also reported in May that firms were forming joint ventures for the PPP package of the project.

    The line will operate at speeds of up to 250 kilometres an hour, reaching Qiddiya in 30 minutes.

    There are five stations planned: Qiddiya Grand Central Station, Qiddiya Uptown Station, King Abdullah Financial District, Terminal 6 King Salman International airport (KSIA) and Iconic Terminal at KSIA.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17621301/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Middle East construction cost inflation to hit 5.1% by 2027

    9 July 2026

    Construction cost inflation in the Middle East is forecast to reach 5.1% in 2027, the second-highest of any region worldwide, as global demand for data centres tightens contractor capacity and deepens shortages of skilled labour.

    The projection comes from the Global Construction Market Intelligence report, published by UK programme manager Turner & Townsend. The report draws on data from 112 markets across 44 countries, gathered between 2 March and 20 March 2026.

    Only Africa is expected to see steeper cost escalation, at 7%. Australia and New Zealand follow the Middle East at 4.9%, while the EU records the lowest figure at 2.8%. Globally, construction cost inflation is set to rise from 4.2% in 2025 to 4.5% in 2026 before flattening in 2027.

    The report identifies a two-speed market. Data centres are now the most in-demand construction sector globally, followed by industrial and logistics. More than 70% of the 112 markets surveyed report tightening or overstretched contractor capacity in the data centre sector. By contrast, more than 79% of markets show balanced or spare capacity across hospitality and leisure, residential and commercial development.

    Skills shortage

    Labour availability has displaced material costs as the primary driver of cost escalation. About 71% of markets report labour shortages. Skills deficits are most acute in mechanical, electrical and plumbing (MEP) trades, with 87% of markets reporting MEP shortages. These trades are central to data centre delivery.

    The findings carry weight for the GCC, where sovereign programmes in Saudi Arabia and the UAE are competing for the same contractor pools that artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure now draws on. Regional governments have announced large data centre commitments alongside gigaprojects, housing and transport schemes, placing further strain on an already stretched supply chain.

    Turner & Townsend says that construction input costs have stabilised over the past year, with supply chain resilience built since the pandemic limiting the impact of recent volatility. Cost drivers are becoming more localised and sector-specific rather than the product of international shocks.

    Energy market exposure introduces a separate risk. The report cites oil prices, higher transport and freight costs, and volatility in petrochemicals inputs as significant challenges. Disruption to shipping routes lengthens lead times and adds supply chain volatility.

    Conflict assumptions

    The baseline scenario assumes a relatively short-lived conflict in the Middle East and a moderate rise in energy commodity prices in 2026. A prolonged or escalating conflict would produce more pronounced effects on inflation, supply chains and construction costs.

    New York remains the world's most expensive construction market at $7,938 a square metre, followed by San Francisco at $7,883 and Geneva at $6,985. London ranks fifth at $6,032.

    North America carries the highest regional labour costs, with an average hourly wage of $79.5, ahead of the EU at $75.6 and Australia and New Zealand at $68.

    Digital adoption remains uneven, though momentum is building. Sixty-six percent of markets report that AI capability now carries more weight in tendering and client discussions than it did 12 months ago.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17606750/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Contractor appointed for Dubai’s One B Tower

    9 July 2026

     

    Dubai-based construction firm Naresco Contracting has been awarded a contract to build One B Tower, located on Dubai's Sheikh Zayed Road.

    Local real estate developer Wasl Group awarded the contract.

    It covers a 47-storey high-rise tower offering a mix of one- to four-bedroom residential units.

    The project is also known as One Billion Meals Endowment Tower.

    The enabling works were undertaken by local firm APCC Building Contracting.

    Netherlands-headquartered UN Studio is the project architect.

    Dubai-based firm Studio International Engineering Consultants is the project consultant.

    The project is slated for completion by 2028.

    This is the second major contract to have been awarded by Wasl Group this year for a residential development.

    In January, the firm awarded an estimated $250m deal to build the Avenue Park Towers project in Dubai to South Korean contractor Ssangyong Engineering & Construction.

    The development comprises two mixed-use buildings offering residential and commercial facilities. One of the towers will have 43 floors while the other will have 37.

    The project is slated for completion by 2028.

    Wasl Group's latest contract award in the UAE market is backed by heightened real estate activity in the construction sector, with schemes worth over $323bn in the execution or planning stages, according to UK analytics firm GlobalData.

    The company forecasts that output from the UAE’s residential construction sector will grow by 3% in real terms in 2026-29, supported by infrastructure, energy and utilities developments, as well as residential construction projects.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17605135/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Iran and US break peace deal and resume Gulf attacks

    9 July 2026

    Iran and the US have once again traded attacks in the Gulf region, in the worst exchange of fire since the two nations signed an interim peace deal in June.

    US Central Command (CentCom) said on 7 July that it had launched strikes in response to attacks on three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, hitting more than 80 targets including air defence systems, coastal radar and fast boats.

    In retaliatory attacks on 8 July, Iran said it had targeted US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait.

    Oil prices have spiked following the strikes, with global benchmark Brent crude trading at $77.32 a barrel as of 1pm Gulf Standard Time.

    UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said a tanker travelling through the strait had reported a fire after an unknown projectile hit an engine room on 6 July.

    In two separate incidents on 7 July, a tanker reported it had been hit as it exited the strait but was able to proceed to its next port of call, while another tanker reported sustaining minor structural damage after being struck, UKMTO said.

    Qatar and Saudi Arabia have denounced the attacks, each saying a tanker from its country had been hit while transiting in or near the strait, and blaming Iran.

    A spokesperson for Qatar's foreign ministry, Majed Al-Ansari, said it held Iran fully responsible for an apparently targeted attack on a vessel called Al-Rekayyat as it transited near the Strait of Hormuz.

    Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry said Iran had targeted the Saudi tanker Wedyan as it crossed the strait. The owner of the very large crude carrier, the kingdom’s national shipping company Bahri, confirmed the attack on the vessel in a statement on 7 July, adding that “all crew members are safe and accounted for, and the cargo remains secure”.

    “The vessel remains in a seaworthy condition. The company promptly informed all relevant authorities and continues to work closely with them and other maritime stakeholders, while maintaining continuous communication with the vessel's crew and closely monitoring the situation,” Bahri said.

    “Bahri continues to closely monitor developments in the region and has implemented appropriate precautionary measures to support the safety of its people, vessels and operations,” it added.

    Breakdown of peace deal

    Separately, the US also said it had revoked its temporary suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil sales. Iran's speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the US of breaching their memorandum of understanding (MoU) on this issue, and others, including the attacks in southern Iran and "violating Iranian adjustments in the strait".

    Missiles and drones were launched at "85 key US military facilities", including a US Navy headquarters and an air base in Kuwait, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said.

    Iranian state media agency Irna also reported the death of an IRGC guard in the US strikes, “after being struck by shrapnel from a projectile".

    Kuwait has responded to the Iranian strikes on its country, lambasting the "repeated attacks".

    Talks on reaching a permanent peace deal have been on hold due to the state funeral in Iran for the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on 28 February – the first day of US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

    Early on 7 July, Iran's deputy foreign minister described the US attacks as a violation of the US-Iran MoU signed on 14 June, and warned Tehran would "take decisive measures".

    The US had said there would be consequences for what it called the "wholly unacceptable" attacks on the three tankers.

    CentCom said that in addition to 60 small boats, it had struck Iranian missile launch sites and command centres. It did not give the locations of its targets.

    It said the strikes were "to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent individuals in an international waterway".

    Before the strikes, the US Treasury revoked a waiver that had temporarily lifted oil sanctions on Iran and was part of the MoU signed by Washington and Tehran in June.

    Iran's foreign ministry called the move a breach of the MoU and said it proved the "bad faith, inconsistency and unreliability" of the US government.

    It added that Tehran "will take whatever measures it considers necessary to safeguard its national interests and national security".

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17605530/main5658.jpg
    Indrajit Sen