meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Political deadlock in Lebanon blocks reforms

5 June 2023

 

Lebanon’s political deadlock is likely to continue to weigh on the country’s economy and undermine security over the medium term, according to experts.

The country currently has an interim government and has been without a president since former President Michel Aoun’s term ended at the end of October last year.

Progress towards forming a new government is likely to be slow, with the legislature divided over who should replace Aoun as president.

In March, the Iran-backed Hezbollah group and House Speaker Nabih Berri’s Amal Movement party – which together constitute Lebanon’s Shia base – announced their support for the Christian politician Sleiman Frangieh.

Hezbollah and its allies have since tried to gather support for Frangieh as president, but strong opposition from the majority of the country’s Christian, Sunni and Druze political blocs has left him short of the 65 votes required to be elected in the 128-member legislature.

Over recent weeks, members of Lebanon’s parliament that oppose Frangieh have started to rally around the former finance minister Jihad Azour.

Azour currently serves as the director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

As the parliament is divided, whether either candidate can obtain a majority vote remains uncertain. According to experts, even if a president is named, it will be extremely difficult for them to form a government.

Nicholas Blanford, a non-resident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programmes, says it will likely be some time before a government is formed.

“Getting a president elected is only the first step,” he said. “Once the new president is in place, there is the tricky task of forming a new government.

“As we’ve seen over the past 20 years, forming a new government can take months as people bicker and jostle for various lucrative and influential portfolios.”

Barbara Leaf, the US assistant secretary for Near Eastern affairs, said on 31 May, during a Senate committee hearing, that the Biden administration was considering sanctions if a new president is not elected soon

Outside pressure

Only when a government has been formed will Lebanon be able to start initiating the series of reforms that the international community has demanded to unlock aid, grants and loans to try to put the country on the path to economic recovery.

As Lebanon’s economic crisis has worsened and the security situation has declined, increasing pressure has been applied from other countries that want to try to restore stability in the region.

Barbara Leaf, the US assistant secretary for Near Eastern affairs, said on 31 May, during a Senate committee hearing, that the Biden administration was considering sanctions if a new president is not elected soon.

Separately, two members of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee called on the administration to impose sanctions on individuals involved in corruption to “make clear to Lebanon’s political class that the status quo is not acceptable”.

In a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken on 30 May, they said: “We also call on the administration to continue pressing for full accountability for the August 2020 Beirut port blast and support independent, international investigatory efforts into egregious fraud and malfeasance by the governor of Lebanon’s central bank.

They added: “We must not allow Lebanon to be held hostage by those looking to advance their own selfish interests.”

French crackdown

French officials have also taken action to try to crack down on perceived corruption by members of Lebanon’s political elite.

In May, French prosecutors issued an arrest warrant for Lebanon’s central bank governor, Riad Salameh.

The warrant followed Salameh’s failure to appear before French prosecutors to be questioned on corruption charges.

In response, Salameh issued a statement saying that the arrest warrant violated the law.

Salameh has been the target of a series of judicial investigations at home and abroad on allegations that include fraud, money laundering and illicit enrichment.

European investigators looking into the fortune he has amassed during three decades in the job had scheduled a hearing in Paris for 16 May.

A key problem is you still have the same cabal of oligarchs in power and it is likely they will still be represented in the next government
Nicholas Blanford, Atlantic Council’s Middle East programmes

Breaking the deadlock

Analysts believe cracking down on corruption among Lebanon’s political elite is key to breaking the country’s political deadlock.

“A key problem is that you still have the same cabal of oligarchs in power and it is likely that they will still be represented in the next government,” said Blanford. “These oligarchs do not want reform because if they implement a meaningful reform process, they run the risk of losing their positions of power.”

While the country’s opposing political blocs continue to vie for power and the formation of a new government seemingly remains only possible after at least several months of negotiations, the outlook for Lebanon in the short term looks bleak.

Meaningful government assistance for Lebanese citizens struggling with declining security and heightened economic pressures remains a distant prospect. High levels of emigration are also likely to continue as the country’s population seeks relief from the hardships at home.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10907713/main.gif
Wil Crisp

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Iraq sets up commission for $5bn pipeline project

    30 April 2026

    Iraq is setting up a high-level commission to oversee the development of the planned $5bn Basra-Haditha crude oil pipeline project.

    The decision was made at a meeting held on 26 April, attended by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani and the Minister of Petroleum Hayyan Abdul Ghani Al-Sawad, as well as other officials and consultants.

    The commission will be chaired by the undersecretary of the Oil Ministry and include advisers to the prime minister, along with director-generals from the Oil Ministry and the Industry & Minerals Ministry.

    Al-Sudani said the pipeline project will increase flexibility in transporting crude oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, as well as the Syrian port of Baniyas and Jordan’s port of Aqaba.

    The pipeline is also expected to strengthen supply to refineries in central and northern Iraq and support higher domestic refining output.

    The meeting also approved allocating $1.5bn to the project this year, with funding provided through the Iraq-China oil-for-infrastructure mechanism, according to a statement issued by the Petroleum Ministry.

    Earlier this month, Iraq’s Council of Ministers approved amendments allowing the Oil Ministry to directly invite specialised companies to bid for the 685-kilometre pipeline.

    The pipeline is expected to have a capacity of up to 2.25 million barrels a day.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16621546/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Construction begins on Dubai Healthcare City projects

    30 April 2026

    Dubai Healthcare City Authority (DHCA) has begun construction on Pixel DHCC and Ibn Sina+, two flagship developments in Dubai Healthcare City.

    Local contractor International Foundation Group has been appointed to carry out the enabling works.

    The two projects form part of Phase 1 of DHCA’s AED1.3bn ($354m) development programme and are scheduled for completion in November 2027.

    Pixel DHCC, designed by Hong Kong-based P&T Architects and Engineers, is planned as Dubai Healthcare City’s first LEED Platinum-certified office building. The nine-storey commercial development will cover 13,000 sq m.

    Ibn Sina+, designed by Dubai’s Design and Architecture Bureau, will be a five-storey medical complex spanning 5,800 sq m.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16611156/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Bahrain extends bid deadline for 1.2GW Sitra IWPP

    30 April 2026

     

    Bahrain’s Electricity & Water Authority (EWA) has extended the developer bidding deadline for the Sitra independent water and power plant (IWPP).

    The new deadline is 17 May. 

    The Sitra IWPP is a combined-cycle gas turbine plant expected to have a generation capacity of about 1,200MW of electricity.

    The project’s seawater reverse osmosis desalination facility will have a production capacity of 30 million imperial gallons a day (MIGD).

    It is the second deadline extension on the main works package since the tender was released in August 2025.

    Lebanon-headquartered Khatib & Alami was recently awarded a consulting contract for the project, worth $1.91m. This was despite the consultancy submitting only the third-lowest bid behind Spain’s Ayesa ($1.25m) and WSP Middle East Architectural & Engineering ($1.27m).

    EWA’s transaction advisory team for the project comprises KPMG Fakhro as the financial consultant and Trowers & Hamlins as the legal consultant.

    MEED previously reported that seven international companies and consortiums had prequalified to bid. These are:

    • Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa, UAE)
    • Acwa Power (Saudi Arabia)
    • China Energy Engineering Corporation / China Datang (Overseas Hong Kong, China)
    • Gulf Investment Corporation (Kuwait)
    • Jera (Japan)
    • Korea Electric Power Corporation (Kepco, South Korea)
    • Sumitomo Corporation (Japan)

    EWA first received statements of qualifications from nine interested firms in December 2024.

    The build-own-operate (BOO) project is being procured under a public-private partnership framework for 20-25 years.

    It is Bahrain’s fourth IWPP, replacing the previously planned Al-Dur 3. The Sitra IWPP is expected to be fully operational by the second quarter of 2029.

    The project is in line with EWA’s plan to replace old plants with new, more efficient ones that reduce natural gas consumption.

    Procurement for the Sitra IWPP is advancing in parallel to other EWA initiatives, including the planned 60MIGD Al-Hidd independent water plant (IWP), for which two bids were submitted earlier this year.

    The contract to develop and operate the state’s first IWP remains under bid evaluation, a source said.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16611117/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Bidders get more time for Jebel Ali sewage EPC contract

    29 April 2026

     

    Dubai Municipality has extended the deadline for contractors to submit bids for a contract covering the expansion of the Jebel Ali sewage treatment plant (STP) phases one and two.

    Contractors now have until June to submit offers, a source told MEED. Bidding had been expected to close on 30 April.

    The upgraded facility will be capable of treating an additional sewage flow of 100,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d), with the expansion estimated to cost $300m.

    The scope includes the design, construction and commissioning of infrastructure and systems required to support the increased capacity.

    Located on a 670-hectare site in Jebel Ali, the original wastewater facility has a treatment capacity of about 675,000 cm/d following the completion of phase two in 2019, combining approximately 300,000 cm/d from phase one and 375,000 cm/d from phase two.

    The main element of the expansion involves modifications to the secondary treatment process at Jebel Ali STP phase two.

    UK-headquartered KPMG and UAE-based Tribe Infrastructure are serving as financial advisers on the project.

    Future expansion

    It is understood that the project is part of long-term plans to treat about 1.05 million cm/d once all future phases are completed.

    According to sources, this includes a Jebel Ali-based build-operate-transfer (BOT) project to be developed under a public-private partnership (PPP) model.

    It is understood that the prequalification process for this will begin in the coming months.

    In February, MEED exclusively revealed that the municipality is preparing to tender the main construction package for the Warsan STP by the end of the year.

    As MEED understands, the Warsan STP had previously been planned as a PPP project.

    The main package will now be procured as an engineering, procurement and construction contract, a source said.

    The project involves the construction of a sewage treatment plant with a capacity of about 175,000 cm/d, including treatment units, sludge handling systems and associated infrastructure.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16608027/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • UAE’s departure from Opec marks a tectonic shift

    29 April 2026

    Commentary
    Indrajit Sen
    Oil & gas editor

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The UAE’s decision to leave Opec and the Opec+ grouping marks a significant turning point in global oil markets and highlights shifting geopolitical dynamics and evolving supply expectations.

    The UAE announced it will leave the producer alliance effective 1 May, ending nearly six decades of membership. The move reflects a broader strategic shift, as the country seeks greater flexibility over its production policy amid rising capacity and changing market conditions.

    For oil markets, this is about more than one country wanting to pump more oil. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has spent billions of dollars over the years to raise crude production capacity to 5 million barrels a day.

    Opec+ quotas had increasingly looked as though they were stifling Abu Dhabi’s growing desire to maximise revenues by tapping into its expanded spare capacity. Leaving the Opec+ coalition gives Abu Dhabi more room to monetise those investments.

    The timing also matters. It comes against a backdrop of regional security concerns, tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, and a sense that consumers are once again being squeezed by high energy costs and depleted strategic reserves. 

    The immediate dip in the price of global benchmark Brent crude following the announcement of the UAE’s decision on 28 April showed the market’s first instinct: more UAE barrels could mean more supply and lower prices. However, the price rebound on 29 April, with Brent trading around $111 a barrel, also tells the other half of the story: extra capacity does not instantly become risk-free supply when regional bottlenecks and security threats remain front and centre.

    For Opec+, this is a blow to unity and to Saudi Arabia’s ability to marshal producer discipline. It does not mean that a price war will start tomorrow, but it raises the risk of other member states choosing to abandon the alliance’s cooperation mechanism and pursue a higher market share. In trading terms, this adds a new volatility premium: more potential supply, less cartel discipline and a Gulf energy landscape that looks significantly less predictable.

    The announcement comes at a time of heightened uncertainty in global energy markets, with geopolitical tensions, supply chain constraints and demand recovery trends all contributing to price volatility. The UAE’s exit is expected to reshape market expectations around supply flexibility and producer coordination.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16608006/main.gif
    Indrajit Sen