Meed | Opec further trims oil demand growth forecasts

Opec further trims oil demand growth forecasts

16 October 2024

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Opec has revised down its global oil demand growth forecasts for both 2024 and 2025 for the third time, citing updated actual data and a slight decline in demand expectations in certain regions.

In its monthly report for October, Opec said that it has cut its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast by 106,000 barrels a day (b/d) to 1.9 million b/d.

The oil producers’ group also trimmed its 2025 demand growth outlook by 102,000 b/d to 1.6 million b/d. Opec noted that non-OECD countries will drive demand growth next year.

The report highlighted that non-OECD demand is expected to grow by about 1.5 million b/d year-on-year in 2025, supported by contributions from China, other Asian countries, the Middle East and India.

Despite these downward revisions, Opec emphasised that oil demand remains at healthy levels, well above the pre-pandemic historical average of 1.4 million b/d. The demand is being supported by strong air travel and road mobility, as well as industrial, construction and agricultural activities.

On the supply side, Opec maintained its projection for non-Opec supply growth at 1.2 million b/d in 2024, led by the US, Canada and Brazil. In 2025, non-Opec supply growth is expected to reach 1.1 million b/d, supported by these three countries along with Norway.

Opec kept its global economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 unchanged at 3% and 2.9%, respectively. Meanwhile, the organisation slightly raised its US economic growth estimate for this year to 2.5%.

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Indrajit Sen