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Opec+ approves fourth consecutive oil output quota hike

8 June 2026

The Opec+ alliance of oil producers has agreed a fourth increase in its oil output targets in as many months, even though the conflict involving Iran, the US and Israel is still preventing several members from pumping more crude.

The war has disrupted oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz, creating a severe supply crisis. Key Opec+ members, including Saudi Arabia, have been unable to supply customers in full since the end of February. The crisis for Opec+ deepened when the UAE left Opec after almost 60 years of membership.

Seven core members of Opec+ – which comprises Opec countries and a group of non-Opec states led by Russia – raised their output quotas from April to June by almost 600,000 barrels a day (b/d).

In practice, however, the group’s production has fallen sharply due to export cuts by Gulf members, averaging 33.19 million b/d in April compared with 42.77 million b/d in February, according to Opec figures.

At the latest meeting of Opec+ oil ministers on 7 June, the seven members agreed to increase targets by 188,000 b/d from July, Opec said in a statement. This matches the June hike, which was adjusted down from monthly increases of 206,000 b/d in April and May to take account of the UAE’s exit.

Iraq’s oil output quota will rise by 26,000 b/d from July under the agreement, an oil ministry spokesperson told Iraq’s state news agency.

 

On 5 June, oil prices fell to about $93 a barrel as traders gained confidence that renewed conflict between the US and Iran was becoming less likely. Prices were close to $72 before the war began on 28 February.

Brent crude rose sharply at the start of this week after Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel on the night of 7 June, heightening fears that US-Iran peace talks might once again collapse. Israel has since retaliated with strikes in western and central Iran, despite calls from US President Donald Trump not to respond to the Iranian missiles.

Brent crude jumped by around 4.5% early on 8 June and was trading at $97.52 a barrel as of 11am GST.

The seven key Opec+ members are increasing production as part of the gradual unwinding of a 1.65 million b/d production cut agreed in 2023 by the coalition, which at the time included the UAE.

From July, the seven have about 567,000 b/d of the original cut left to return to the market – taking into account the UAE’s exit from 1 May – according to Reuters calculations.

That would imply the remainder of the cut will be unwound by the end of September if Opec+ maintains monthly hikes of about 188,000 b/d in August and September.

The seven of the 21 Opec+ members who met on 7 June were Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia and Oman. In recent years, only these seven – plus the UAE when it was a member– have been involved in the group’s output-policy decisions.

In a separate meeting on Sunday attended by all Opec+ members, ministers made no change to the group-wide output policy in place until the end of 2026, Opec+ said in another statement.

Opec+ is also reviewing members’ oil production capacity to use as a reference for 2027 production baselines, from which quotas are set. On Sunday, the group reaffirmed the importance of completing the assessment, the statement said.

ALSO READ: UAE to continue working with Opec, energy minister says

 

READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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Indrajit Sen

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