Oman pursues utility and grid expansion

5 December 2024

 

Expanding renewable energy and water production capacity and interconnecting disparate grids have been key priorities for Oman’s main utility stakeholders, especially over the past two years.

These efforts support a stated objective for renewable energy to account for 30% of Oman’s electricity generation capacity by 2030 – or an intervening milestone of about 3,000MW by 2027 – while ceasing to procure new thermal capacity.

“As in every other GCC state, the role of renewables is enshrined in Oman’s overall energy production mix target,” notes a UAE-based infrastructure consultant.

In addition to the longer-term renewable energy target, the sultanate expects new wind and solar projects to contribute to almost 11% of electricity production by 2025, according to the state offtaker Nama Power & Water Procurement Company’s (Nama PWP) latest seven-year statement covering 2023-29.

The milestones appear manageable. While Oman’s operational renewable energy capacity, mainly from the Ibri 2 solar independent power project (IPP), is only around 500MW, a further 1,000MW is under construction through the Manah 1 and Manah 2 solar IPPs.

The tendering process is also under way for around 1,000MW of wind IPP schemes.

In September, Nama PWP invited firms to bid for a contract to develop and operate the first two wind farms it is procuring under an IPP framework.

Located in South Sharqiyah Governorate, the Jalan Bani Bu Ali wind IPP will cater to Oman’s Main Interconnection System (MIS). It will have a capacity of 91MW-105MW and a commercial operation target of Q1 2027.

The second scheme is the Dhofar wind IPP, catering to the smaller Dhofar Power System (DPS). It will have a capacity of 114MW-132MW and will be operational in Q2 2027.

Three other wind schemes will be tendered over the following months, bringing the total capacity of wind IPPs to be developed in Oman over the next two to three years to over 1,000MW.

Nama PWP is also expected to issue the request for proposals for the 500MW Ibri 3 solar IPP scheme shortly.

Expiring capacities

While Muscat has said it does not plan to procure further thermal power generation capacity in the foreseeable future, it successfully extended the contracts for several expiring thermal power generation and water desalination capacities earlier this year.

These agreements collectively secured over 1,500MW of electricity and 200,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d) of desalinated water for up to nine years.

The contract renewals follow the expiry or expected expiry of the power- or power and water-purchase agreements for the following plants:

  • Barka 1 independent water and power project (IWPP): 427MW (installed power generation capacity) / 101,000 cm/d (desalination capacity)
  • Barka 2 IWPP: 703MW / 120,000 cm/d
  • Rusail IPP: 184MW
  • Manah IPP: 179MW

According to Saudi utility developer Acwa Power, the Barka 1 plant’s power and water purchase agreement extension is valued at $356m.

It includes extending the operation of the power plant for eight years and nine months, starting from 1 June 2024, and the water desalination plant for three years from 1 September 2024. When it began operations in 2003, the facility contributed 6% of Oman’s electricity and 24% of its desalinated water.

Nama PWP said “efficient utilisation of gas consumption will continue to improve” over the 2023-29 planning horizon.

Peak demand forecast

Peak demand in the MIS is expected to grow at an average of approximately 3.4% a year over the seven-year planning period, reaching about 8,350MW in 2029, up from 6,628MW in 2022.

In the DPS, peak demand is anticipated to grow 5% a year, from 612MW in 2022 to 837MW in 2029.

Oman has been implementing key projects to improve the efficiency of its electricity grids, addressing growing peak demand and intermittent renewable power.

In 2023, Oman Electricity Transmission Company completed works on the $966m, 400-kilovolt (kV) first phase of the North-South Interconnection project – known as Rabt – enabling Oman’s MIS to connect with the Duqm Power System.

The project is expected to stimulate the development of the Special Economic Zone at Duqm (Sezad) and the development of renewable energy projects in the Al-Wusta Governorate. The next phase to expand the Rabt project is expected by 2026.

Oman’s second direct link to the GCC regional electricity grid is also planned to come onstream the same year.

The 400kV Oman Direct Link project will extend the Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority’s (GCCIA) 400kV transmission network to enable direct interconnection with Oman.

According to energy consultancy firm Energoprojeckt, which is advising the GCCIA on this project, a new 400kV double circuit overhead line connection, with a total route length of 528 kilometres, will be constructed from the existing 400kV GCCIA Silaa substation in the UAE to the existing 400/220kV Ibri substation in Oman.

Oman’s first link with the GCCIA became operational in November 2011. It comprises a 200kV line connecting the Mahadha grid station in Al-Wasit, Oman, to the Al-Oha grid station in Al-Ain, UAE.

Water sector

The sultanate’s water sector has been similarly buoyant. Contract awards for desalination and treatment capacity and the construction of water transmission pipelines are approaching record highs.

According to MEED Projects data, close to $1bn-worth of contracts are in the bid evaluation stage, including the estimated $100m package for the wastewater network facilities on Masirah Island, as well as several water pipeline, desalination and dam projects across the sultanate.

Oman’s Barka 5 independent water project (IWP) reached commercial operations in August, its owner and operator, Madrid-headquartered GS Inima, announced. Oman’s eighth IWP scheme has a design capacity of 100,000 cm/d.

The project, which uses reverse osmosis technology, will serve 800,000 people in the sultanate’s most populated areas: Muscat, Dakhiliyah and Batinah.

GS Inima, in a consortium with local contractor Sogex and Saudi Arabia’s Aljomaih, won the contract to develop another IWP in Oman, the 300,000 cm/d Ghubrah 3 IWP, in 2020. The project is expected to reach financial close soon.

Peak water demand in the sultanate’s MIS is expected to increase by an average of 2% annually, from 1,172,000 cm/d in 2022 to 1,387,000 cm/d in 2029.

A higher growth rate of 5% annually is expected in the sultanate’s Sharqiyah zone, and 7% is projected in Dhofar.

Other upcoming projects

In addition to Nama PWP’s plans, state-backed Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) is procuring renewable energy capacity to support its target of 30% of its power capacity coming from renewable sources by 2026 and 50% by 2030.

PDO floated a tender for two 100MW wind projects in April 2023. It is understood that PDO is in discussions with Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) for the contract to develop the Riyah-1 and Riyah-2 wind projects.

PDO has also appointed a team comprising Beijing-headquartered Power Construction Corporation of China (PowerChina) and its subsidiary, Huadong Engineering Corporation (HDEC), to undertake the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) work for the two wind projects.

PDO plans to develop its second solar photovoltaic project near Saih Nihayda, next to Qarn Alam airport, in the northern region of Oman. The project is expected to come onstream late next year, nearly five years after its first 100MW Amin solar project began operating.

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Jennifer Aguinaldo
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    In a region where geopolitical turbulence has amplified by an order of magnitude, Jordan is managing to stand out as a beacon of relative stability, with the Hashemite kingdom’s banking sector acting as a case in point.

    Lending has grown in recent years, with credit up by an average 4.9% between 2020 and 2025, according to the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) – a faster rate than average nominal GDP growth of 2.3% over the same period.

    The IMF took care to note an increase in credit to the private sector in its latest Article IV assessment of Jordan, standing at 80.1% of GDP at end-2024, compared to just 66.6% 10 years earlier.

    Banks in the kingdom ended 2025 in a liquid state, but caution remains the watchword for local lenders. The loan-to-deposit relationship bears that out. For that year, deposits ended up 7.1% to JD50bn ($70.5bn), while credit facilities were up just 3.7% to JD36.1bn ($50.9bn).

    Analysts see this as a case of Jordanian banks being prudent, given the tricky operating environment and limited lending opportunities, rather than banks being excessively defensive. 

    According to Christos Theofilou, an analyst at Moody’s Investors Service, it is cautious lending in fraught macroeconomic conditions.

    “On the one hand, we’ve seen a structurally strong and stable deposit base that has been growing more compared to lending. That indicates a certain degree of limited risk appetite, but also the fact that, given the challenging operating conditions, there were limited business opportunities in the market,” says Theofilou.

    Liquidity banked

    Jordan’s banks look able to withstand further shocks, given solid capital positions and relatively strong earnings performances. Arab Bank, the largest lender, saw net profits grow 12% last year to $1.13bn, despite a highly charged geopolitical situation across Jordan and the neighbouring Palestinian territories.

    As Moody’s notes, Jordanian banks’ funding base remains stable, with banks mainly deposit-funded – with deposits at 67% of total assets as of December 2025 – mostly comprising well-diversified retail deposits. The ratings agency noted that banks retain the capacity to increase lending without relying on more volatile and costly external funding, as indicated by the 72% loan-to-deposit ratio.

    The earnings outlook in Jordan may be better than other banking sectors in the immediate region, but this does not translate into a picture of booming profits going forward.

    “Profits should remain resilient, but we’re not expecting any significant improvement,” says Theofilou. “We have the challenging operating conditions, and the lower interest rates that have come down over the past few years. On the other hand, banks have had lower provisioning in the past 12 to 18 months compared to the period prior to that.”

    Asset quality remains a strong point, despite some weakening over recent years. Moody’s sees non-performing loans (NPLs) falling below 5.5% this year from 5.8% in June 2025.

    However, the continuing Iran conflict and its deleterious regional impacts – including on the West Bank, where about 9% of Jordanian banks’ loans are located – suggest that bank exposures to troubled sectors will require focus.

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    Another challenge is the banks’ high credit concentration among large corporates, with a noted high exposure to real estate.

    Commercial and residential real estate loans accounted for 17.4% of total credit facilities as of year-end 2024, while residential mortgages accounted for 40.9% of household credit. Regulatory oversight may limit the impacts – the CBJ caps loans for real estate at 20% of local currency customer deposits.

    The real estate exposures are meaningful, but Moody’s views overall concentration risk as more material rather than real estate risk per se.

    “So, on the one hand, Jordanian banks have real estate loans, both commercial and residential, slightly below a fifth of the total credit facilities,” says Theofilou. “Banks also face challenges in quickly disposing of properties, but within the context of a relatively lengthy foreclosure process. On the flipside, we see Jordanian banks having fairly high collateralisation, so they do hold a lot of collateral against the real estate exposures.”

    The CBJ has earned plaudits for its regulatory oversight, with the IMF lauding its strengthening of the Financial Stability Committee, while refocusing its role on macroprudential policies and systemic risks. 

    Jordanian banks’ brisk uptake of digital technologies has also been a positive.

    Last year, digital payment systems in Jordan recorded over 184 million digital transactions, exceeding $38bn in value. The CBJ has introduced an AI regulatory framework for the sector and the authorities are now working to burnish the country’s credentials as a fintech hub, based on a 90% plus internet penetration. 

    In the year ahead, Jordanian banks will be looking to find exposures to new lending opportunities, given the past risk aversion that has prevented them from building stronger growth avenues.

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    “The SME segment does represent a potential growth opportunity and it’s supported by policy focus, however its expansion is constrained by the operating environment. The sector is exposed to high overall credit risks, and when conditions are challenging, banks tend to be more cautious in lending to the SME markets,” says Theofilou.

    So long as the regional conflict persists, banks will be inclined more towards caution than exuberance in their lending approaches. And yet that strong and stable inclination may be what serves them best in a notably turbulent year in the Middle East’s recent history.

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    Mohammed Alabbar, the founder of Emaar Properties, has released a statement saying that the Dubai-based real estate developer is about to announce a $55bn project in Dubai.

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