Non-oil activity underpins UAE economy
11 April 2024
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Economic activity in the UAE appears to be holding up relatively well amid the regional turmoil sparked by the start of the Gaza war in November.
Abu Dhabi recorded GDP growth of 3.1% in 2023, according to full-year estimates released by the Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi on 1 April. That marks a substantial drop from the 9.3% level seen in 2022, but an improvement on the 2.3% growth over the first nine months of 2023.
Despite falling oil prices and the disruption to Red Sea shipping in the final quarter, there have been ongoing positive signs for the non-oil sector, which now accounts for around 53% of the total economy. Non-oil activity grew by 9.1% in 2023, down only slightly from the 9.2% level recorded a year earlier.
That non-oil activity is likely to continue to be a key element for economic growth for as long as the UAE and its partners in the Opec+ alliance maintain their voluntary restrictions on crude production. There is no clear timeline for when that policy might change, but David Pickett, assistant economist at Oxford Economics, said he anticipated “a significant increase in oil production from 2026, aided by new facilities and subsiding geopolitical uncertainty”.
In the meantime, the Central Bank of the UAE has adjusted its growth expectations for this year, cutting its forecast for 2024 from the previous 5.7% to 4.2% while predicting a rebound to 5.2% the following year—figures that are higher than many independent observers’ expectations.
Trade and investment
A wave of free trade deals is helping the country’s economic prospects. To date, the UAE has signed comprehensive economic partnership agreements (CEPAs) with 12 countries, the most recent being with Kenya in late February. Another is due to be finalised with Malaysia by June.
Deals with India, Indonesia, Israel, Turkey and Cambodia have already come into effect, while others with Colombia, Costa Rica, Georgia, Kenya, Mauritius, South Korea and the Republic of Congo are all in line to follow. Trade talks are ongoing with numerous other countries, including Australia, Chile, the Philippines and Vietnam.
However, the rapid pace of negotiations means it is not yet clear what impact these deals are having on trade flows.
“It is arguably too early to assess the economic impact of these trade agreements, with many coming into force less than 12 months ago and with full bilateral trade data for 2023 yet to be published,” said Jeanne Walters, senior economist at Dubai-based Emirates NBD, in a report published in early March.
Also helping the country’s position is its release in February from the strictures of the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force’s ‘grey list’ of jurisdictions under increased monitoring. The UAE authorities had been targeting this development for some time, and it should ease the path of economic growth for a country that relies heavily on international trade.
Minister of State Ahmed Bin Ali Al Sayegh set out the decision’s importance soon after the announcement, saying it “enhances investors’ and international financial institutions’ confidence in the country’s economy and financial system, especially considering the UAE’s status as a financial, commercial and economic hub”.
One measure of the country’s commercial reputation is its ability to attract investment. Despite increased competition from Saudi Arabia for international capital, a March report by Emirates NBD Research found that the UAE was second only to the US globally in terms of the number of greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) projects it attracted in 2023.
The number of UAE FDI projects for 2023 was recorded at 1,280, up 36% on the previous 12 months. Most of these were in Dubai, which attracted 1,036 projects – more than any other city in the world – while Abu Dhabi had 172 projects.
In an effort to continue to attract international capital, the government is now said to be looking at offering 10-year ‘golden licences’ to businesses. The topic was discussed at a meeting of the Economic Integration Committee, chaired by Economy Minister Abdulla Bin Touq, in late March.
Inclement geopolitics
Perhaps the biggest cloud on the horizon is the brutal Gaza war, which could yet have a larger economic and domestic political impact, not least because of the sensitivity around the UAE’s diplomatic relations with Israel.
Like other Gulf countries, the UAE has been sending a steady stream of humanitarian aid to Gaza, but those efforts received a setback on 2 April, when Israel attacked an aid convoy run by World Central Kitchen – a partner of the UAE and others in the Amalthea Initiative aimed at providing a maritime corridor for aid from Cyprus to Gaza.
The UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement in which it “condemned in the strongest terms” the Israeli strike. Emirati officials were already understood to be considering ways to offer more protection to aid deliveries, and this will now be even higher up the agenda.
Even as relations have soured, there has been no indication that the country is considering altering its diplomatic ties with Tel Aviv, forged under the Abraham Accords of September 2020.
Nevertheless, while there has been little outward sign of public discontent within the UAE over the conflict, officials around the Gulf are said to be increasingly wary of the potential for the war in Gaza to cause a popular backlash.
One lesson from the broader region in recent decades is that an economic downturn can encourage political discontent, too, but it is far easier to maintain public order in a prosperous economic environment. By that measure, the UAE should have little to fear, given its robust non-oil performance of late.
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Saudi Arabia’s Council of Ministers has approved a new Government Tenders and Procurement Law (GTPL), introducing changes to public procurement procedures and government contracting.
The Ministry of Finance announced the approval on 5 August.
The new law aims to strengthen governance and transparency, improve procurement planning and implementation, and promote fairness and equal opportunities in government contracting.
The changes give government entities greater flexibility in procurement while introducing new provisions that could affect contractors and suppliers, including contract variations, outstanding payments and procurement procedures.
Contract flexibility
According to a Ministry of Finance summary of the key amendments, one of the main changes allows government entities to increase existing contract items by up to 20% of the contract value. Contractor approval is required for increases exceeding 10%, while the total increase from adding new items or increasing existing items cannot exceed 20% of the contract value.
The amendments also introduce measures addressing outstanding payments to contractors. A government entity cannot make a new award when it has outstanding amounts owed to contractors for works or procurement and the required procedures have not been taken, after notification from the Ministry of Finance.
Exceptions apply where non-payment relates to ministry procedures or where the government entity has taken the required action on a claim but does not have sufficient budget allocations.
Single committee
Under the new law, the committees responsible for opening and examining bids will be merged into a single committee.
The maximum value for direct procurement will rise from SR100,000 ($26,700) to SR1m ($267,000) while government entities will be required to explain and document their use of direct procurement.
Direct procurement will also be permitted in cases involving research, development and innovation and certain contracts with professional practitioners.
The amendments reduce the minimum standstill period following a procurement award from five working days to three working days. Government entities will also be able to negotiate where the best bid exceeds the estimated cost plus the permitted contingency.
Localisation
The new framework includes provisions covering industrial localisation and knowledge transfer. The Ministry of Finance said it will issue rules for contracting for these purposes in cooperation with the Local Content and Government Procurement Authority.
A new regulation will also cover research, development and innovation, including tendering and contracting provisions for these activities.
Other changes involve contractors’ exposure to penalties. The maximum delay penalty on contracts, excluding supply contracts, will fall from 20% to 15% of contract value. The maximum penalty for non-performance in continuous-performance contracts will also fall from 20% to 15%.
The value of purchases exempt from providing a final guarantee will rise from SR100,000 ($26,700) to SR300,000 ($80,000). Additional exemptions will apply to contracts with professional practitioners and emergency or urgent cases.
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GCC reviews first phase of water interconnection study17 August 2026
The GCC General Secretariat has completed the first phase of a study examining the feasibility of developing water interconnection projects between GCC member states.
A two-day workshop reviewing the study’s findings concluded on 12 August at the headquarters of the GCC Interconnection Authority (GCCIA) in Dammam, Saudi Arabia.
The GCC General Secretariat organised the workshop in cooperation with GCCIA, with representatives from relevant authorities and experts in water, infrastructure and water security taking part.
Participants reviewed the first phase findings, including an assessment of existing water supply infrastructure and the actual water needs of GCC member states. They also discussed the technical requirements and data needed to complete the study.
The study is intended to identify practical options and feasible solutions for developing a regional water interconnection network. This includes establishing an implementation roadmap.
The initiative aims to improve the GCC states’ ability to respond to emergencies and crises and support continuity of water supplies.
First meeting
The workshop followed a virtual meeting on 22 July between the GCC General Secretariat and Saudi Arabia’s water authorities as part of the study.
That meeting, which also involved consultancy Artelia, reviewed the study’s methodology and implementation stages. These include assessing existing water systems across GCC states, their resilience and emergency readiness, and developing technical options for bilateral water interconnection projects.
In Saudi Arabia, the study is focused primarily on the Eastern Province and Riyadh. It is assessing water production and desalination facilities, transmission pipelines, strategic reservoirs, pumping stations and existing and planned projects.
The study is also examining potential bilateral connections between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, as well as the possibility of a connection with the UAE.
The 22 July meeting also discussed potential connection points and routes, water flow directions and the possibility of designing interconnection pipelines to operate in both directions.
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Neom’s next phase is crucial to green hydrogen pipeline17 August 2026
Commentary
Mark Dowdall
Power & water editorThe completion of construction at Neom Green Hydrogen comes at an important point for Saudi Arabia’s wider hydrogen ambitions.
The project has already shown that a large green hydrogen scheme can secure financing by reaching financial close in 2023 with long-term offtake from Air Products.
With the facility now moving into commissioning ahead of a targeted commercial operations date next year, Neom could soon give lenders and developers real evidence on the performance, costs and risks of a large-scale green hydrogen project.
That could be important for projects still moving through development. Acwa’s Yanbu Green Hydrogen Hub, for example, is targeting commercial operations in 2030.
The project has brought in Germany’s EnBW as a co-developer and minority investor and Japan’s Itochu as a co-developer, investor and offtaker. Acwa is targeting production of 2.5 million tonnes a year of green ammonia from the hub.
Saudi Arabia is also putting more of the framework around the industry in place. In July, the government granted Acwa exclusive rights to export green hydrogen produced in the kingdom along with its derivatives, including green ammonia, methanol and fuels.
However, partnerships and policy support alone will not remove the commercial questions facing projects. Yanbu still needs to progress through development and secure the financing needed to move into construction.
Neom’s financing structure and 30-year offtake may be specific to the project, but its operating performance should give future developers and lenders a clearer reference point for assessing production, reliability and costs.
While Neom will not make the next projects bankable on its own, if it stays on track and performs as expected, it could give lenders a stronger basis for assessing projects that follow. In the long-run, this could be one of its most important contributions.
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Five bid for King Salman Bay construction work17 August 2026

Five teams have submitted bids for the contract covering the marine infrastructure works at King Salman Bay on the Red Sea coast, north of Jeddah.
MEED understands that the bids were submitted on 31 July.
The bidders include:
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- Van Oord (Netherlands)
- Abdulmohsen Altamimi / NMDC Group (local/UAE)
- Urbacon / Negida Contracting (Qatar/Egypt )
- Modern Building Leaders / China Harbour (local/China)
The scope includes dredging and earthworks, as well as quay wall and edge protection works spanning about 11 kilometres.
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READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDFSaudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.
Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
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PDO allows more time for Al-Ghubar field project prices17 August 2026

Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) has allowed contractors additional time to prepare commercial bids for a project to build a new facility to handle additional oil production from the Al-Ghubar field in the sultanate.
The Al-Ghubar field is located in the Ghaba Salt Basin at Qarn Alam, within majority state-owned PDO’s Block 6 concession area.
The Al-Ghubar gas-oil gravity drainage (GOGD) facility will be designed as a sour (hydrogen sulphide) facility and is expected to handle maximum oil production of 1,800 standard cubic metres a day (cm/d), a maximum total water flow rate of 10,421 standard cm/d, and maximum gas lift of 256,934 standard cm/d. Production from the planned Al-Ghubar GOGD facility will be exported to PDO’s main oil line.
Following receipt of the technical bids for the project in July, PDO granted contractors additional time – until 16 August – to submit commercial bids for the project, MEED recently reported.
The project operator has now extended the deadline for submitting commercial bids to 1 September, sources told MEED.
PDO floated the tender for the Al-Ghubar GOGD facility project in March, setting an initial bid submission deadline of 4 May, MEED previously reported.
PDO later extended the deadlines for submission of technical and commercial bids to 26 July and 7 August, respectively. Contractors submitted technical proposals by the revised deadline, according to sources.
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The scope of work on the Al-Ghubar GOGD facility project covers the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) of the following:
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- Water bath heater
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PDO previously intended to tender the Al-Ghubar GOGD project under its framework structure with selected EPC contractors, but eventually tendered it separately.
PDO is the operator of the Block 6 hydrocarbons concession in Oman, which is the sultanate’s largest and most prolific concession. Situated onshore and covering an area of 75,119 square kilometres, Block 6 contains 202 oil fields and 43 gas fields, with PDO producing a total of approximately 680,000 barrels a day (b/d) of oil and condensates from those fields.
The Omani government holds a 60% stake in PDO through Energy Development Oman (EDO). The other shareholders are UK-based Shell (34%), France’s TotalEnergies (4%) and Thailand’s state-owned PTTEP (2%).
ALSO READ: PDO floats tender for major flare gas monetisation scheme
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