meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Non-oil activity underpins UAE economy

11 April 2024

The latest news and analysis on the UAE includes:

> Dubai real estate boosts construction sector
> UAE and Kenya launch digital corridor initiative
> UAE in talks to invest in European nuclear power infrastructure
> Abu Dhabi’s local content awards surge to $12bn
> Dubai tunnels project dominates UAE pipeline
> UAE marks successful power project deliveries

 

Economic activity in the UAE appears to be holding up relatively well amid the regional turmoil sparked by the start of the Gaza war in November.

Abu Dhabi recorded GDP growth of 3.1% in 2023, according to full-year estimates released by the Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi on 1 April. That marks a substantial drop from the 9.3% level seen in 2022, but an improvement on the 2.3% growth over the first nine months of 2023.

Despite falling oil prices and the disruption to Red Sea shipping in the final quarter, there have been ongoing positive signs for the non-oil sector, which now accounts for around 53% of the total economy. Non-oil activity grew by 9.1% in 2023, down only slightly from the 9.2% level recorded a year earlier.

That non-oil activity is likely to continue to be a key element for economic growth for as long as the UAE and its partners in the Opec+ alliance maintain their voluntary restrictions on crude production. There is no clear timeline for when that policy might change, but David Pickett, assistant economist at Oxford Economics, said he anticipated “a significant increase in oil production from 2026, aided by new facilities and subsiding geopolitical uncertainty”.

In the meantime, the Central Bank of the UAE has adjusted its growth expectations for this year, cutting its forecast for 2024 from the previous 5.7% to 4.2% while predicting a rebound to 5.2% the following year—figures that are higher than many independent observers’ expectations.

Trade and investment

A wave of free trade deals is helping the country’s economic prospects. To date, the UAE has signed comprehensive economic partnership agreements (CEPAs) with 12 countries, the most recent being with Kenya in late February. Another is due to be finalised with Malaysia by June.

Deals with India, Indonesia, Israel, Turkey and Cambodia have already come into effect, while others with Colombia, Costa Rica, Georgia, Kenya, Mauritius, South Korea and the Republic of Congo are all in line to follow. Trade talks are ongoing with numerous other countries, including Australia, Chile, the Philippines and Vietnam.

However, the rapid pace of negotiations means it is not yet clear what impact these deals are having on trade flows.

“It is arguably too early to assess the economic impact of these trade agreements, with many coming into force less than 12 months ago and with full bilateral trade data for 2023 yet to be published,” said Jeanne Walters, senior economist at Dubai-based Emirates NBD, in a report published in early March.

Also helping the country’s position is its release in February from the strictures of the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force’s ‘grey list’ of jurisdictions under increased monitoring. The UAE authorities had been targeting this development for some time, and it should ease the path of economic growth for a country that relies heavily on international trade.

Minister of State Ahmed Bin Ali Al Sayegh set out the decision’s importance soon after the announcement, saying it “enhances investors’ and international financial institutions’ confidence in the country’s economy and financial system, especially considering the UAE’s status as a financial, commercial and economic hub”.

One measure of the country’s commercial reputation is its ability to attract investment. Despite increased competition from Saudi Arabia for international capital, a March report by Emirates NBD Research found that the UAE was second only to the US globally in terms of the number of greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) projects it attracted in 2023.

The number of UAE FDI projects for 2023 was recorded at 1,280, up 36% on the previous 12 months. Most of these were in Dubai, which attracted 1,036 projects – more than any other city in the world – while Abu Dhabi had 172 projects.

In an effort to continue to attract international capital, the government is now said to be looking at offering 10-year ‘golden licences’ to businesses. The topic was discussed at a meeting of the Economic Integration Committee, chaired by Economy Minister Abdulla Bin Touq, in late March.

Inclement geopolitics

Perhaps the biggest cloud on the horizon is the brutal Gaza war, which could yet have a larger economic and domestic political impact, not least because of the sensitivity around the UAE’s diplomatic relations with Israel.

Like other Gulf countries, the UAE has been sending a steady stream of humanitarian aid to Gaza, but those efforts received a setback on 2 April, when Israel attacked an aid convoy run by World Central Kitchen – a partner of the UAE and others in the Amalthea Initiative aimed at providing a maritime corridor for aid from Cyprus to Gaza.

The UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement in which it “condemned in the strongest terms” the Israeli strike. Emirati officials were already understood to be considering ways to offer more protection to aid deliveries, and this will now be even higher up the agenda.

Even as relations have soured, there has been no indication that the country is considering altering its diplomatic ties with Tel Aviv, forged under the Abraham Accords of September 2020.

Nevertheless, while there has been little outward sign of public discontent within the UAE over the conflict, officials around the Gulf are said to be increasingly wary of the potential for the war in Gaza to cause a popular backlash.

One lesson from the broader region in recent decades is that an economic downturn can encourage political discontent, too, but it is far easier to maintain public order in a prosperous economic environment. By that measure, the UAE should have little to fear, given its robust non-oil performance of late.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11662621/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Oman’s growth forecast points upwards

    24 December 2025

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15306449/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • December 2025: Data drives regional projects

    23 December 2025

    Click here to download the PDF

    Includes: Top inward FDI locations by project volume | Brent spot price | Construction output

    MEED’s January 2026 report on Oman includes:

    > COMMENT: Oman steadies growth with strategic restraint
    > ECONOMY: Oman pursues diversification amid regional concerns
    > BANKING: Oman banks feel impact of stronger economy
    > OIL & GAS: LNG goals galvanise Oman’s oil and gas sector
    > POWER & WATER: Oman prepares for a wave of IPP awards
    > CONSTRUCTION: Momentum builds in construction sector

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15306140/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • Local firm bids lowest for Kuwait substation deal

    22 December 2025

    The local Al-Ahleia Switchgear Company has submitted the lowest price of KD33.9m ($110.3m) for a contract to build a 400/132/11 kV substation at the South Surra township for Kuwait’s Public Authority for Housing Welfare (PAHW).

    The bid was marginally lower than the two other offers of KD35.1m and KD35.5m submitted respectively by Saudi Arabia’s National Contracting Company (NCC) and India’s Larsen & Toubro.

    PAHW is expected to take about three months to evaluate the prices before selecting the successful contractor.

    The project is one of several transmission and distribution projects either out to bid or recently awarded by Kuwait’s main affordable housing client.

    This year alone, it has awarded two contracts worth more than $100m for cable works at its 1Z, 2Z, 3Z and 4Z 400kV substations at Al-Istiqlal City, and two deals totalling just under $280m for the construction of seven 132/11kV substations in the same township.

    Most recently, it has tendered two contracts to build seven 132/11kV main substations at its affordable housing project, west of Kuwait City. The bid deadline for the two deals covering the MS-01 through to MS-08 substations is 8 January.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15305745/main.gif
    Edward James
  • Saudi-Dutch JV awards ‘supercentre’ metals reclamation project

    22 December 2025

    The local Advanced Circular Materials Company (ACMC), a joint venture of the Netherlands-based Shell & AMG Recycling BV (SARBV) and local firm United Company for Industry (UCI), has awarded the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for the first phase of its $500m-plus metals reclamation complex in Jubail.

    The contract, estimated to be worth in excess of $200m, was won by China TianChen Engineering Corporation (TCC), a subsidiary of China National Chemical Engineering Company (CNCEC), following the issue of the tender in July 2024.

    Under the terms of the deal, TCC will process gasification ash generated at Saudi Aramco’s Jizan refining complex on the Red Sea coast to produce battery-grade vanadium oxide and vanadium electrolyte for vanadium redox flow batteries. AMG will provide the licensed technology required for the production process.

    The works are the first of four planned phases at the catalyst and gasification ash recycling ‘Supercentre’, which is located at the PlasChem Park in Jubail Industrial City 2 alongside the Sadara integrated refining and petrochemical complex.

    Phase 2 will expand the facility to process spent catalysts from heavy oil upgrading facilities to produce ferrovanadium for the steel industry and/or additional battery-grade vanadium oxide.

    Phase 3 involves installing a manufacturing facility for residue-upgrading catalysts.

    In the fourth phase, a vanadium electrolyte production plant will be developed.

    The developers expect a total reduction of 3.6 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions a year when the four phases of the project are commissioned.

    SARBV first announced its intention to build a metal reclamation and catalyst manufacturing facility in Saudi Arabia in November 2019. The kingdom’s Ministry of Investment, then known as the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (Sagia), supported the project.

    In July 2022, SARBV and UCI signed the agreement to formalise their joint venture and build the proposed facility.

    The project has received support from Saudi Aramco’s Namaat industrial investment programme. Aramco, at the time, also signed an agreement with the joint venture to offtake vanadium-bearing gasification ash from its Jizan refining complex.

    Photo credit: SARBV

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15305326/main.gif
    Edward James
  • QatarEnergy LNG awards $4bn gas project package

    22 December 2025

    QatarEnergy LNG, a subsidiary of state-owned QatarEnergy, has awarded the main engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) contract for a major package for the second phase of its North Field Production Sustainability (NFPS) project.

    A consortium comprising the Italian contractor Saipem and state-owned China Offshore Oil Engineering Company (COOEC) has secured the EPCI contract for the COMP5 package. The contract value is $4bn, with Saipem declaring its share to be worth $3.1bn.

    Milan-headquartered Saipem said the contract will run for about five years. The scope of work comprises engineering, procurement, fabrication and installation of two compression complexes, each including a compression platform, a living quarters platform, a flare platform supporting the gas combustion system, and the related interconnecting bridges. Each complex will have a total weight of about 68,000 tonnes.

    Offshore installation operations will be carried out by Saipem’s De He construction vessel in 2029 and 2030.

    MEED previously reported that the following contractors submitted bids for the NFPS phase two COMP5 package:

    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India)
    • McDermott (US)
    • Saipem/China Offshore Oil Engineering Company (Italy/China)

    QatarEnergy LNG, formerly Qatargas, is said to have issued the tender for the NFPS phase two COMP5 package in the first quarter of the year.

    Contractors submitted technical bids for the COMP5 package in late June, while commercial bids were submitted by 8 October, as per sources.

    Based upon initial evaluation of bids by QatarEnergy LNG, L&TEH has emerged as the lowest bidder for the COMP5 package, followed by McDermott, with the consortium of Saipem and COOEC in third place, MEED reported in late October.

    In the weeks following that, the project operator is said to have engaged all bidders for a final round of negotiations, during which the consortium of Saipem and COOEC is believed to have “clinched the deal”, according to sources.

    The detailed scope of work on the COMP5 package covers the EPCI work on the following:

    • Two gas compression platforms, each weighing 30,000-35,000 tonnes, plus jacket
    • Two living quarters platforms, plus jacket
    • Two gas flare platforms, plus jacket
    • Brownfield modification work at two complexes
    NFPS scheme

    QatarEnergy’s North Field liquefied natural gas (LNG) expansion programme requires the state enterprise to pump large volumes of gas from the North Field offshore reserve to feed the three phases of the estimated $40bn-plus programme.

    QatarEnergy has already invested billions of dollars in engineering, procurement and construction works on the two phases of the NFPS project, which aims to maintain steady gas feedstock for the North Field LNG expansion phases.

    The second NFPS phase will mainly involve building gas compression facilities to sustain and gradually increase gas production from Qatar’s offshore North Field gas reserve over the long term.

    Saipem has been the most successful contractor on the second NFPS phase, securing work worth a total of $8.5bn.

    QatarEnergy LNG awarded Saipem a $4.5bn order in October 2022 to build and install gas compression facilities. The main scope of work on the package, which is known as EPCI 2, covers two large gas compression complexes that will comprise decks, jackets, topsides, interconnecting bridges, flare platforms, living quarters and interface modules.

    The gas compression complexes – CP65 and CP75 – will weigh 62,000 tonnes and 63,000 tonnes, respectively, and will be the largest fixed steel jacket compression platforms ever built.

    Following that, Saipem won combined packages COMP3A and COMP3B of the NFPS project’s second phase in September last year.

    The scope of work on the combined packages encompasses the EPCI of a total of six platforms, approximately 100 kilometres (km) of corrosion resistance alloy rigid subsea pipelines of 28-inches and 24-inches diameter, 100km of subsea composite cables, 150km of fibre optic cables and several other subsea units.

    Separately, QatarEnergy LNG awarded McDermott the contract for the NFPS second phase package known as EPCI 1, or COMP1, in July 2023. The scope of work on the estimated $1bn-plus contract is to install a subsea gas pipeline network at the North Field gas development.

    In March this year, India’s Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (LTEH) won the main contract for the combined 4A and 4B package, which is the fourth package of the second phase of the NFPS project and is estimated to be valued at $4bn-$5bn.

    The main scope of work on the package is the EPCI of two large gas compression systems that will be known as CP8S and CP4N, each weighing 25,000-35,000 tonnes. The contract scope also includes compression platforms, flare gas platforms and other associated structures.

    LTHE sub-contracted detailed engineering and design works on the combined 4A and 4B package to French contractor Technip Energies.

    NFPS first phase

    Saipem is also executing the EPCI works on the entire first phase of the NFPS project, which consists of two main packages.

    Through the first phase of the NFPS scheme, QatarEnergy LNG aims to increase the early gas field production capacity of the North Field offshore development to 110 million tonnes a year.

    QatarEnergy LNG awarded Saipem the contract for the EPCI package in February 2021. The package is the larger of the two NFPS phase one packages and has a value of $1.7bn.

    Saipem’s scope of work on the EPCI package encompasses building several offshore facilities for extracting and transporting natural gas, including platforms, supporting and connecting structures, subsea cables and anti-corrosion internally clad pipelines.

    The scope of work also includes decommissioning a pipeline and other significant modifications to existing offshore facilities.

    In addition, in April 2021, QatarEnergy LNG awarded Saipem two options for additional work within the EPCI package, worth about $350m.

    QatarEnergy LNG awarded Saipem the second package of the NFPS phase one project, estimated to be worth $1bn, in March 2021.

    Saipem’s scope of work on the package, which is known as EPCL, mainly covers installing three offshore export trunklines running almost 300km from their respective offshore platforms to the QatarEnergy LNG north and south plants located in Ras Laffan Industrial City.

    Saipem performed the front-end engineering and design work on the main production package of the first phase of the NFPS as part of a $20m contract that it was awarded in January 2019. This provided a competitive advantage to the Italian contractor in its bid to win the package.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15305330/main2239.jpg
    Indrajit Sen