meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Non-oil activity underpins UAE economy

11 April 2024

The latest news and analysis on the UAE includes:

> Dubai real estate boosts construction sector
> UAE and Kenya launch digital corridor initiative
> UAE in talks to invest in European nuclear power infrastructure
> Abu Dhabi’s local content awards surge to $12bn
> Dubai tunnels project dominates UAE pipeline
> UAE marks successful power project deliveries

 

Economic activity in the UAE appears to be holding up relatively well amid the regional turmoil sparked by the start of the Gaza war in November.

Abu Dhabi recorded GDP growth of 3.1% in 2023, according to full-year estimates released by the Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi on 1 April. That marks a substantial drop from the 9.3% level seen in 2022, but an improvement on the 2.3% growth over the first nine months of 2023.

Despite falling oil prices and the disruption to Red Sea shipping in the final quarter, there have been ongoing positive signs for the non-oil sector, which now accounts for around 53% of the total economy. Non-oil activity grew by 9.1% in 2023, down only slightly from the 9.2% level recorded a year earlier.

That non-oil activity is likely to continue to be a key element for economic growth for as long as the UAE and its partners in the Opec+ alliance maintain their voluntary restrictions on crude production. There is no clear timeline for when that policy might change, but David Pickett, assistant economist at Oxford Economics, said he anticipated “a significant increase in oil production from 2026, aided by new facilities and subsiding geopolitical uncertainty”.

In the meantime, the Central Bank of the UAE has adjusted its growth expectations for this year, cutting its forecast for 2024 from the previous 5.7% to 4.2% while predicting a rebound to 5.2% the following year—figures that are higher than many independent observers’ expectations.

Trade and investment

A wave of free trade deals is helping the country’s economic prospects. To date, the UAE has signed comprehensive economic partnership agreements (CEPAs) with 12 countries, the most recent being with Kenya in late February. Another is due to be finalised with Malaysia by June.

Deals with India, Indonesia, Israel, Turkey and Cambodia have already come into effect, while others with Colombia, Costa Rica, Georgia, Kenya, Mauritius, South Korea and the Republic of Congo are all in line to follow. Trade talks are ongoing with numerous other countries, including Australia, Chile, the Philippines and Vietnam.

However, the rapid pace of negotiations means it is not yet clear what impact these deals are having on trade flows.

“It is arguably too early to assess the economic impact of these trade agreements, with many coming into force less than 12 months ago and with full bilateral trade data for 2023 yet to be published,” said Jeanne Walters, senior economist at Dubai-based Emirates NBD, in a report published in early March.

Also helping the country’s position is its release in February from the strictures of the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force’s ‘grey list’ of jurisdictions under increased monitoring. The UAE authorities had been targeting this development for some time, and it should ease the path of economic growth for a country that relies heavily on international trade.

Minister of State Ahmed Bin Ali Al Sayegh set out the decision’s importance soon after the announcement, saying it “enhances investors’ and international financial institutions’ confidence in the country’s economy and financial system, especially considering the UAE’s status as a financial, commercial and economic hub”.

One measure of the country’s commercial reputation is its ability to attract investment. Despite increased competition from Saudi Arabia for international capital, a March report by Emirates NBD Research found that the UAE was second only to the US globally in terms of the number of greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) projects it attracted in 2023.

The number of UAE FDI projects for 2023 was recorded at 1,280, up 36% on the previous 12 months. Most of these were in Dubai, which attracted 1,036 projects – more than any other city in the world – while Abu Dhabi had 172 projects.

In an effort to continue to attract international capital, the government is now said to be looking at offering 10-year ‘golden licences’ to businesses. The topic was discussed at a meeting of the Economic Integration Committee, chaired by Economy Minister Abdulla Bin Touq, in late March.

Inclement geopolitics

Perhaps the biggest cloud on the horizon is the brutal Gaza war, which could yet have a larger economic and domestic political impact, not least because of the sensitivity around the UAE’s diplomatic relations with Israel.

Like other Gulf countries, the UAE has been sending a steady stream of humanitarian aid to Gaza, but those efforts received a setback on 2 April, when Israel attacked an aid convoy run by World Central Kitchen – a partner of the UAE and others in the Amalthea Initiative aimed at providing a maritime corridor for aid from Cyprus to Gaza.

The UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement in which it “condemned in the strongest terms” the Israeli strike. Emirati officials were already understood to be considering ways to offer more protection to aid deliveries, and this will now be even higher up the agenda.

Even as relations have soured, there has been no indication that the country is considering altering its diplomatic ties with Tel Aviv, forged under the Abraham Accords of September 2020.

Nevertheless, while there has been little outward sign of public discontent within the UAE over the conflict, officials around the Gulf are said to be increasingly wary of the potential for the war in Gaza to cause a popular backlash.

One lesson from the broader region in recent decades is that an economic downturn can encourage political discontent, too, but it is far easier to maintain public order in a prosperous economic environment. By that measure, the UAE should have little to fear, given its robust non-oil performance of late.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11662621/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Parsons wins role on Elon Musk-backed Dubai Loop project

    4 May 2026

    US-based Parsons Corporation has been appointed to deliver programme management services for the Dubai Loop transportation system.

    The contract was awarded by Elon Musk-backed firm The Boring Company, which signed a construction agreement with Dubai’s Roads & Transport Authority (RTA) in February.

    Parsons’ scope of work includes independent design verification, stakeholder management, permitting and no-objection certificate (NOC) support, and multidisciplinary design reviews for the project’s first phase.

    The first phase comprises a 6.4-kilometre route with four stations, linking the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) and Dubai Mall.

    Stations will be located at DIFC 2, ICD Brookfield Place, Dubai Mall Zabeel Parking and Burj Khalifa.

    The first phase is expected to cost about AED565m ($154m) and to be delivered within one year after design work and other preparations are completed. Tunnelling is expected to begin in the second half of this year.

    Next phase

    The second phase will connect Dubai World Trade Centre and DIFC with Business Bay.

    The tunnels will extend up to 22km and include 19 stations.

    The total cost across both phases is expected to be around AED2bn ($545m), with completion scheduled within three years.

    The pilot route is expected to serve around 13,000 passengers a day, while the full route is projected to have a capacity of about 30,000 passengers a day.

    The RTA and The Boring Company signed a memorandum of understanding on the sidelines of the World Governments Summit in Dubai in February last year to explore the development of the Dubai Loop transportation system.

    The Dubai Loop is expected to be similar to The Boring Company’s Las Vegas Convention Centre (LVCC) Loop project. The LVCC Loop is a 2.7km underground tunnel system that connects different convention centre halls, reducing walking time across the site to about two minutes.

    The LVCC Loop has been in operation since 2021. It uses Tesla Model 3 cars to carry passengers between five stations. The Boring Company began construction in November 2019 at an estimated cost of $49m.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16672074/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Humain tenders infrastructure for 6GW data centre campus

    4 May 2026

    Saudi artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company Humain, owned by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), has issued a tender inviting firms to develop infrastructure for its planned 6GW hyperscale AI data centre campus in Riyadh.

    The project will be delivered on an early contractor involvement (ECI) basis. Under the ECI process, selected contractors are required to submit methodologies and design proposals, after which one team will be selected to deliver the construction works.

    Firms have until 8 May to submit proposals.

    The development will be built on a 24-square-kilometre site in the Al-Saad area in east Riyadh. It will be delivered in two phases across six plots, each with a capacity of 1GW.

    The scope of infrastructure work covers:

    • Construction of 380kV/132kV/33kV electrical distribution network, two substations with a capacity of 500MVA and 200MVA, bulk supply point (2,000MVA)
    • Water network and fire protection systems
    • Sewage treatment plant and wastewater network
    • Stormwater systems
    • Roads
    • Underground cable and fibre optic networks
    • Landscaping works

    The client is being supported by Canadian engineering firm Hatch, France’s Egis and US-based firm JLL.

    Humain was launched in May last year to operate and invest across the AI value chain.

    Humain is building full-stack AI capabilities across four core areas: next-generation data centres, hyper-performance infrastructure and cloud platforms, and advanced AI models, including Allam.

    Also in May 2025, Humain signed preliminary deals with US chipmakers AMD and Nvidia to build multibillion-dollar advanced digital infrastructure in the kingdom.

    AMD said it will invest up to $10bn to deploy 500MW of AI compute capacity in Saudi Arabia over the next five years.

    In October, PIF and Saudi Aramco signed a non-binding term sheet setting out key terms under which Aramco would acquire a minority stake in Humain, with PIF retaining majority ownership.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16671267/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Abu Dhabi selects consortium for 2.5GW Taweelah C IPP

    4 May 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    A consortium of Al-Jomaih Energy & Water Company (Saudi Arabia) and Sembcorp Industries (Singapore) has been selected to develop the Taweelah C independent power producer (IPP) project in Abu Dhabi.

    The consortium will sign a power purchase agreement (PPA) in mid-May, a source told MEED.

    The combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plant will have a capacity of 2.5GW. It will be located at the Al-Taweelah power and desalination complex, about 50 kilometres northeast of Abu Dhabi city.

    It is understood that China Energy Engineering Corporation (CEEC) will be the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor.

    Last September, MEED reported that state offtaker Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec) had received three bids for the facility.

    The bidders included:

    • Al-Jomaih Energy & Water Company / Sembcorp Industries
    • Sumitomo Corporation (Japan) / Korea Overseas Infrastructure & Urban Development Corporation / Korean Midland Power
    • Korea Western Power Company / Etihad Water & Electricity (UAE) / Kyuden International (Japan)

    At the time, Mohamed Al-Marzooqi, chief asset development and management officer at Ewec, said the bids would make Taweelah C “one of the lowest tariff CCGT projects in the region”.

    The carbon-capture-ready facility had been scheduled to begin commercial operations in the fourth quarter of 2028.

    This was based on the initial timeline for a PPA to be signed in the fourth quarter of 2025.

    Taweelah C is part of Ewec’s wider programme to support the UAE’s Net Zero by 2050 Strategic Initiative and the Abu Dhabi Department of Energy’s Clean Energy Strategic Target 2035.

    Ewec plans to raise solar power capacity to 18GW and wind capacity to 2.6GW by 2035, while reducing the carbon intensity of its power generation by more than half compared to 2019.

    Ewec is also expanding its low-carbon water desalination capacity, with the Taweelah reverse osmosis (RO) plant already operating as the world’s largest RO facility and additional projects, such as the Mirfa 2 RO and Shuweihat 4 RO, under way.

    By 2030, it expects 95% of Abu Dhabi’s installed water capacity to come from RO technology.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16670622/main0858.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Dubai launches Blue Line metro tunnelling works

    4 May 2026

    Dubai has announced the launch of tunnelling works for the Dubai Metro Blue Line extension project.

    In a post on X, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, UAE Vice President, Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai, announced the start of operations of the tunnel boring machine (TBM), which the Roads & Transport Authority (RTA) has named ‘Al-Wugeisha’.

    The TBM is 163 metres long, weighs more than 2,000 tonnes and will operate around the clock. The post added that its average excavation rate ranges from 13 to 17 metres a day.

    The Blue Line will connect the existing Red and Green lines. It will be 30 kilometres (km) long, with 15.5km underground and 14.5km above ground.

    The line will have 14 stations, seven of which will be elevated. There will be five underground stations, including one interchange station, and two elevated transfer stations connected to the existing Centrepoint and Creek stations.

    In December 2024, the RTA awarded a AED20.5bn ($5.5bn) main contract for the construction of the project to a consortium comprising Turkiye’s Limak Holding and Mapa Group, along with the Hong Kong office of China Railway Rolling Stock Corporation (CRRC).

    The consortium is responsible for all civil works, electromechanical works, rolling stock and rail systems. After completing the project, it will assist with maintenance and operations for an initial three-year period.

    According to an official statement, the Blue Line will have a capacity of 46,000 passengers an hour in both directions.

    The project is scheduled for completion in September 2029.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16670584/main.jpeg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Firms submit Jeddah distribution centre bids

    4 May 2026

     

    Contractors submitted bids on 26 April for an estimated SR140m ($37m) contract to build a distribution centre in Jeddah.

    Saudi Logistics Services Company (SAL) launched the tender on 11 March, as previously reported by MEED. The project will cover an area of about 37,000 square metres. Egyptian firm Cosmos-E Engineers & Consultants has been appointed as the project consultant.

    This tender follows the start of construction by Egyptian contractor Rowad Modern Engineering, a subsidiary of Elsewedy Electric Group, on the expansion of SAL’s facilities at King Khalid International airport in Riyadh. The scope of work includes rehabilitating and upgrading existing infrastructure, as well as constructing new supporting facilities and services.

    SAL also launched the tendering process in September last year for its SR4.2bn ($1bn) logistics zone in northern Riyadh, MEED previously reported. UAE-based Global Engineering Consultants is the consultant for that development.

    The logistics hub aims to meet demand for customised warehouses near King Khalid International airport and the Riyadh Metro. The project aligns with Vision 2030 and the National Transport & Logistics Strategy, which aims to strengthen the kingdom’s logistics sector and enhance Saudi Arabia’s position as a global logistics hub.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16670338/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal