meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Non-oil activity underpins UAE economy

11 April 2024

The latest news and analysis on the UAE includes:

> Dubai real estate boosts construction sector
> UAE and Kenya launch digital corridor initiative
> UAE in talks to invest in European nuclear power infrastructure
> Abu Dhabi’s local content awards surge to $12bn
> Dubai tunnels project dominates UAE pipeline
> UAE marks successful power project deliveries

 

Economic activity in the UAE appears to be holding up relatively well amid the regional turmoil sparked by the start of the Gaza war in November.

Abu Dhabi recorded GDP growth of 3.1% in 2023, according to full-year estimates released by the Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi on 1 April. That marks a substantial drop from the 9.3% level seen in 2022, but an improvement on the 2.3% growth over the first nine months of 2023.

Despite falling oil prices and the disruption to Red Sea shipping in the final quarter, there have been ongoing positive signs for the non-oil sector, which now accounts for around 53% of the total economy. Non-oil activity grew by 9.1% in 2023, down only slightly from the 9.2% level recorded a year earlier.

That non-oil activity is likely to continue to be a key element for economic growth for as long as the UAE and its partners in the Opec+ alliance maintain their voluntary restrictions on crude production. There is no clear timeline for when that policy might change, but David Pickett, assistant economist at Oxford Economics, said he anticipated “a significant increase in oil production from 2026, aided by new facilities and subsiding geopolitical uncertainty”.

In the meantime, the Central Bank of the UAE has adjusted its growth expectations for this year, cutting its forecast for 2024 from the previous 5.7% to 4.2% while predicting a rebound to 5.2% the following year—figures that are higher than many independent observers’ expectations.

Trade and investment

A wave of free trade deals is helping the country’s economic prospects. To date, the UAE has signed comprehensive economic partnership agreements (CEPAs) with 12 countries, the most recent being with Kenya in late February. Another is due to be finalised with Malaysia by June.

Deals with India, Indonesia, Israel, Turkey and Cambodia have already come into effect, while others with Colombia, Costa Rica, Georgia, Kenya, Mauritius, South Korea and the Republic of Congo are all in line to follow. Trade talks are ongoing with numerous other countries, including Australia, Chile, the Philippines and Vietnam.

However, the rapid pace of negotiations means it is not yet clear what impact these deals are having on trade flows.

“It is arguably too early to assess the economic impact of these trade agreements, with many coming into force less than 12 months ago and with full bilateral trade data for 2023 yet to be published,” said Jeanne Walters, senior economist at Dubai-based Emirates NBD, in a report published in early March.

Also helping the country’s position is its release in February from the strictures of the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force’s ‘grey list’ of jurisdictions under increased monitoring. The UAE authorities had been targeting this development for some time, and it should ease the path of economic growth for a country that relies heavily on international trade.

Minister of State Ahmed Bin Ali Al Sayegh set out the decision’s importance soon after the announcement, saying it “enhances investors’ and international financial institutions’ confidence in the country’s economy and financial system, especially considering the UAE’s status as a financial, commercial and economic hub”.

One measure of the country’s commercial reputation is its ability to attract investment. Despite increased competition from Saudi Arabia for international capital, a March report by Emirates NBD Research found that the UAE was second only to the US globally in terms of the number of greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) projects it attracted in 2023.

The number of UAE FDI projects for 2023 was recorded at 1,280, up 36% on the previous 12 months. Most of these were in Dubai, which attracted 1,036 projects – more than any other city in the world – while Abu Dhabi had 172 projects.

In an effort to continue to attract international capital, the government is now said to be looking at offering 10-year ‘golden licences’ to businesses. The topic was discussed at a meeting of the Economic Integration Committee, chaired by Economy Minister Abdulla Bin Touq, in late March.

Inclement geopolitics

Perhaps the biggest cloud on the horizon is the brutal Gaza war, which could yet have a larger economic and domestic political impact, not least because of the sensitivity around the UAE’s diplomatic relations with Israel.

Like other Gulf countries, the UAE has been sending a steady stream of humanitarian aid to Gaza, but those efforts received a setback on 2 April, when Israel attacked an aid convoy run by World Central Kitchen – a partner of the UAE and others in the Amalthea Initiative aimed at providing a maritime corridor for aid from Cyprus to Gaza.

The UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement in which it “condemned in the strongest terms” the Israeli strike. Emirati officials were already understood to be considering ways to offer more protection to aid deliveries, and this will now be even higher up the agenda.

Even as relations have soured, there has been no indication that the country is considering altering its diplomatic ties with Tel Aviv, forged under the Abraham Accords of September 2020.

Nevertheless, while there has been little outward sign of public discontent within the UAE over the conflict, officials around the Gulf are said to be increasingly wary of the potential for the war in Gaza to cause a popular backlash.

One lesson from the broader region in recent decades is that an economic downturn can encourage political discontent, too, but it is far easier to maintain public order in a prosperous economic environment. By that measure, the UAE should have little to fear, given its robust non-oil performance of late.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11662621/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Dubai advances Auto Market construction

    6 May 2026

     

    The construction works on the Dubai Auto Market, which is set to become one of the world’s largest and most advanced automotive trading hubs, are progressing.

    Enabling works are under way, being carried out by local contractor Rad International Road Construction.

    US-based engineering firm Aecom is serving as the project consultant.

    In November last year, Dubai Municipality signed a partnership agreement with DP World’s Economic Zones division to establish and manage the market, as MEED reported. Under the agreement, DP World will provide integrated logistics and zone management services, including e-commerce and trade finance solutions.

    The Dubai Auto Market will span a 22 million-square-foot complex, to be developed by DP World. It is planned to include more than 1,500 showrooms, clustered workshop zones, warehouses and multi-storey parking facilities, alongside a convention centre, hotel, auction house, retail outlets, and food and beverage areas.

    The facility is designed to handle more than 800,000 vehicles a year, including new and used electric, hybrid and conventional models.

    The UAE’s construction industry is projected to expand by 5% in real terms in 2026, supported by rising foreign direct investment (FDI), growth in the construction sector and increased oil sector activity.

    According to the UAE’s Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre, construction value added rose by 8.8% year on year (YoY) in Q2 2025, following YoY growth of 7% in Q1 2025 and 10.8% in Q4 2024.

    The commercial construction sector is forecast to grow by 6.4% in 2026 and to record average annual growth of 4.9% from 2027 to 2030, supported by investment in tourism and hotel facilities.

    The industrial construction sector is expected to expand by 4.1% in real terms in 2026, then to average 4.4% annually from 2027 to 2030, supported by improved investment in manufacturing facilities.

    The infrastructure construction sector is projected to grow by 5.8% in real terms in 2026, before averaging 4.3% annual growth from 2027 to 2030, supported by the government’s focus on improving regional connectivity through road and rail development.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16700367/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi Arabia extends bid deadline for solar projects

    6 May 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s principal buyer, Saudi Power Procurement Company (SPPC), has extended the deadline for developers bidding for four solar projects under the seventh round of the National Renewable Energy Programme (NREP).

    Round seven of the NREP comprises solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind independent power producer (IPP) projects with a combined capacity of 5,300MW. The renewables programme is being led and supervised by the Ministry of Energy.

    The four solar PV projects comprise:

    • 1,400MW Tabjal 2 solar PV IPP (Tabrijal, Al-Jouf province)
    • 600MW Mawqqaq solar PV IPP (Mawqqaq, Hail province)
    • 600MW Tathleeth solar PV IPP (Tathleeth, Aseer province)
    • 500MW South Al-Ula solar PV IPP (Al-Ula, Medina province)

    The projects were tendered in January, with an initial bid submission deadline of 30 April.

    The new deadline is 30 June.

    The solar projects are the latest in a string of large-scale power and water developments across the region to have bidding extended in recent weeks.

    In the UAE, the bid deadline for the seventh phase of Dubai Electricity & Water Authority’s Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum Solar Park was recently pushed back to 1 July. 

    Bids for the 1,300MW Bilgah and 900MW Shagra wind IPPs are currently still due by 14 May, according to a source.

    In January, MEED reported that 16 developers qualified to bid as both managing and technical members for the four solar PV projects under the seventh round of the NREP.

    These include:

    • Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) 
    • Alfanar Company (Saudi Arabia)
    • Al-Gihaz Holding Company (Saudi Arabia)
    • EDF Power Solutions (France)
    • Kahrabel (Engie) (UAE / France)
    • Sembcorp Utilities (Singapore)
    • Jinko Power (HK) (China)
    • TotalEnergies Renewables (France)
    • Al-Jomaih Energy & Water (Saudi Arabia)
    • Korea Electric Power Corporation (Kepco) (South Korea)
    • Nesma Renewable Energy (Saudi Arabia)
    • Korea Western Power (South Korea)
    • Marubeni Corporation (Japan)
    • SPIC Shanghai Electric Power (China)
    • WahajPeak Holdings (Saudi Arabia)
    • FAS Energy for Trading Company (Saudi Arabia)

    A further six companies qualified to bid as a managing member only for the solar PV projects. These include:

    • Saudi Electricity Company (Saudi Arabia)
    • Grupo Empresarial Enhol (Spain)
    • Power Construction Corporation of China (Power China) (China)
    • GD Power Development (China)
    • Gulf Development Public Company (Thailand)
    • Reliance NU Energies Private (India)

    The renewable energy programme aims to supply 50% of the kingdom’s electricity from renewable energy by 2030.

    Earlier rounds under the NREP have already put in place large capacities. Last October, SPPC awarded contracts to develop and operate five renewable energy projects under round six of the NREP.

    These comprise four solar PV IPP projects and one wind IPP project with a total combined capacity of 4,500MW.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16700361/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • EtihadWE awards EPC contract for Fujairah IWP

    6 May 2026

    Etihad Water & Electricity (EtihadWE) has awarded an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for the Fujairah 1 independent water producer (IWP) project.

    The agreement was signed with a consortium of UAE-based NMDC Infra and Spain’s Lantania Aguas. 

    The EPC works will be delivered by Lantania NMDC Water. The company was formed after NMDC Infra acquired a 51% stake in Lantania Aguas in January 2026.

    Fujairah 1 is the second desalination project procured by EtihadWE under a public-private partnership (PPP) model. It follows the 150-million-imperial-gallon-a-day (MIGD) Naqa’a IWP in Umm Al-Quwain.

    The project involves developing a 60 MIGD seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant. The total investment is valued at AED1.046bn ($285m), the utility said in a statement.

    The plant will be located at the Port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman and will include storage capacity equivalent to 18 hours of production.

    Construction is expected to take about 30 months. Initial operations will begin at partial capacity, followed by ramp-up to full output.

    Details of the water offtake agreement for Fujairah 1 have not been disclosed. EtihadWE previously signed a 35-year water-purchase agreement for the Naqa’a project.

    Mohammed Al-Shehhi, CEO of the development and investment arm of EtihadWE, said the company is “currently developing multiple SWRO projects to be announced in due course”.

    In January, Dubai International Financial Centre-based Deloitte Professional Services submitted the lowest bid for a contract to provide consultancy services to Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) and EtihadWE.

    The contract scope includes conducting a pre-feasibility study for an SWRO IWP and water transmission pipelines project.

    The study will assess potential project sites, optimal plant capacity, technical and commercial parameters and the viability of associated water transmission infrastructure.

    According to a source, the study’s consultant has not yet been appointed.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16700218/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • June deadline for Riyadh section of Saudi Landbridge

    6 May 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) has set a 2 June bid submission deadline for a design-and-build contract to construct the Riyadh Rail Link, a new railway line running north to south across Riyadh.

    The tender was issued on 29 January. The previous bid submission deadline was 29 April.

    The scope of work includes constructing a 35-kilometre-long double-track railway line connecting SAR’s North-South railway to the Eastern railway network.

    The contract also covers the procurement, construction and installation of associated infrastructure such as viaducts, civil works, utility installations, signalling systems and other related works.

    The project is expected to form a key component of the Saudi Landbridge railway.

    In January, SAR said it would deliver the Saudi Landbridge project through a “new mechanism” by 2034, after failing to reach an agreement with a Chinese consortium to construct it, as MEED reported.

    In an interview with local media, SAR CEO Bashar Bin Khalid Al-Malik said the consortium failed to meet local content requirements and that the project would now be delivered in several phases under a different procurement model.

    The project has been under negotiation between Saudi Arabia and China-backed investors keen to develop it through a public-private partnership.

    Al-Malik said that the project cost is about SR100bn ($26.6bn).

    It comprises more than 1,500km of new track. The core component is a 900km new railway between Riyadh and Jeddah, which will provide direct freight access to the capital from King Abdullah Port on the Red Sea.

    Other key sections include upgrading the existing Riyadh-Dammam line, a bypass around the capital called the Riyadh Link, and a link between King Abdullah Port and Yanbu.

    The Saudi Landbridge is one of the kingdom’s most anticipated project programmes. Plans to develop it were first announced in 2004, but put on hold in 2010 before being revived a year later. Key stumbling blocks were rights-of-way issues, route alignment and its high cost.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16698846/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Bid deadline extended for Kuwait oil pipeline

    6 May 2026

    State-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) has extended the bid deadline for a project to develop a crude oil pipeline in the country.

    The invitation to bid was originally tendered in October last year, with a bid deadline of 18 January 2026.

    Since then, the deadline has been extended several times, and the latest announced bid deadline is 31 May 2026.

    The new pipeline will have a diameter of 20 inches and will carry the crude oil blend known as Ratawi-Burgen.

    The project scope will involve replacing a 30-kilometre section of the pipeline known as CR-058.

    The pipeline originates from the Wafra field and feeds crude oil into the larger 36-inch CR-088 crude oil pipeline.

    The pipelines on this network have had documented corrosion issues in the past, which were linked to slow flow rates within the pipelines.

    The Wafra field is located in the Partitioned Zone between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

    Both countries equally share the natural resources contained in this region.

    Kuwait is currently pushing to increase its oil production capacity.

    In 2024, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation’s chief executive, Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, reiterated that his company plans to increase Kuwait’s oil production capacity to 4 million barrels a day (b/d) by 2035.                             

    In September last year, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Tareq Al‑Roumi announced that the country’s oil production capacity had reached 3.2 million b/d, its highest level in more than 10 years.

    Kuwait had a similar capacity in the late 2000s, peaking at a recorded 3.3 million b/d in 2010.

    Since the US and Israel’s attack on Iran on 28 February, Kuwait’s oil and gas sector has been rocked by the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which all of the country’s crude is normally exported.

    Kuwait recorded zero crude oil exports in April for the first time since the end of the Gulf War in 1991, according to shipping monitor TankerTrackers.com.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16691664/main5905.jpg
    Wil Crisp