Non-oil activity underpins UAE economy
11 April 2024
The latest news and analysis on the UAE includes:
> Dubai real estate boosts construction sector
> UAE and Kenya launch digital corridor initiative
> UAE in talks to invest in European nuclear power infrastructure
> Abu Dhabi’s local content awards surge to $12bn
> Dubai tunnels project dominates UAE pipeline
> UAE marks successful power project deliveries
Economic activity in the UAE appears to be holding up relatively well amid the regional turmoil sparked by the start of the Gaza war in November.
Abu Dhabi recorded GDP growth of 3.1% in 2023, according to full-year estimates released by the Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi on 1 April. That marks a substantial drop from the 9.3% level seen in 2022, but an improvement on the 2.3% growth over the first nine months of 2023.
Despite falling oil prices and the disruption to Red Sea shipping in the final quarter, there have been ongoing positive signs for the non-oil sector, which now accounts for around 53% of the total economy. Non-oil activity grew by 9.1% in 2023, down only slightly from the 9.2% level recorded a year earlier.
That non-oil activity is likely to continue to be a key element for economic growth for as long as the UAE and its partners in the Opec+ alliance maintain their voluntary restrictions on crude production. There is no clear timeline for when that policy might change, but David Pickett, assistant economist at Oxford Economics, said he anticipated “a significant increase in oil production from 2026, aided by new facilities and subsiding geopolitical uncertainty”.
In the meantime, the Central Bank of the UAE has adjusted its growth expectations for this year, cutting its forecast for 2024 from the previous 5.7% to 4.2% while predicting a rebound to 5.2% the following year—figures that are higher than many independent observers’ expectations.
Trade and investment
A wave of free trade deals is helping the country’s economic prospects. To date, the UAE has signed comprehensive economic partnership agreements (CEPAs) with 12 countries, the most recent being with Kenya in late February. Another is due to be finalised with Malaysia by June.
Deals with India, Indonesia, Israel, Turkey and Cambodia have already come into effect, while others with Colombia, Costa Rica, Georgia, Kenya, Mauritius, South Korea and the Republic of Congo are all in line to follow. Trade talks are ongoing with numerous other countries, including Australia, Chile, the Philippines and Vietnam.
However, the rapid pace of negotiations means it is not yet clear what impact these deals are having on trade flows.
“It is arguably too early to assess the economic impact of these trade agreements, with many coming into force less than 12 months ago and with full bilateral trade data for 2023 yet to be published,” said Jeanne Walters, senior economist at Dubai-based Emirates NBD, in a report published in early March.
Also helping the country’s position is its release in February from the strictures of the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force’s ‘grey list’ of jurisdictions under increased monitoring. The UAE authorities had been targeting this development for some time, and it should ease the path of economic growth for a country that relies heavily on international trade.
Minister of State Ahmed Bin Ali Al Sayegh set out the decision’s importance soon after the announcement, saying it “enhances investors’ and international financial institutions’ confidence in the country’s economy and financial system, especially considering the UAE’s status as a financial, commercial and economic hub”.
One measure of the country’s commercial reputation is its ability to attract investment. Despite increased competition from Saudi Arabia for international capital, a March report by Emirates NBD Research found that the UAE was second only to the US globally in terms of the number of greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) projects it attracted in 2023.
The number of UAE FDI projects for 2023 was recorded at 1,280, up 36% on the previous 12 months. Most of these were in Dubai, which attracted 1,036 projects – more than any other city in the world – while Abu Dhabi had 172 projects.
In an effort to continue to attract international capital, the government is now said to be looking at offering 10-year ‘golden licences’ to businesses. The topic was discussed at a meeting of the Economic Integration Committee, chaired by Economy Minister Abdulla Bin Touq, in late March.
Inclement geopolitics
Perhaps the biggest cloud on the horizon is the brutal Gaza war, which could yet have a larger economic and domestic political impact, not least because of the sensitivity around the UAE’s diplomatic relations with Israel.
Like other Gulf countries, the UAE has been sending a steady stream of humanitarian aid to Gaza, but those efforts received a setback on 2 April, when Israel attacked an aid convoy run by World Central Kitchen – a partner of the UAE and others in the Amalthea Initiative aimed at providing a maritime corridor for aid from Cyprus to Gaza.
The UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement in which it “condemned in the strongest terms” the Israeli strike. Emirati officials were already understood to be considering ways to offer more protection to aid deliveries, and this will now be even higher up the agenda.
Even as relations have soured, there has been no indication that the country is considering altering its diplomatic ties with Tel Aviv, forged under the Abraham Accords of September 2020.
Nevertheless, while there has been little outward sign of public discontent within the UAE over the conflict, officials around the Gulf are said to be increasingly wary of the potential for the war in Gaza to cause a popular backlash.
One lesson from the broader region in recent decades is that an economic downturn can encourage political discontent, too, but it is far easier to maintain public order in a prosperous economic environment. By that measure, the UAE should have little to fear, given its robust non-oil performance of late.
Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.
Exclusive from Meed
All of this is only 1% of what MEED.com has to offer
Subscribe now and unlock all the 153,671 articles on MEED.com
- All the latest news, data, and market intelligence across MENA at your fingerprints
- First-hand updates and inside information on projects, clients and competitors that matter to you
- 20 years' archive of information, data, and news for you to access at your convenience
- Strategize to succeed and minimise risks with timely analysis of current and future market trends
Related Articles
-
Oman’s Barka 5 IWP solar plant begins full operations1 May 2026
Spain’s GS Inima has begun permanent operations at the solar photovoltaic (PV) plant serving the Barka 5 independent water project (IWP) in Oman.
The solar facility is the third of its kind in Oman to power a large-scale desalination facility through a self-supply model.
In a statement, GS Inima said it will provide up to 50% of the desalination plant’s electricity needs during daytime operations, improving efficiency and reducing reliance on external power sources.
The PV plant has an installed capacity of 6.5MWp. It is designed to optimise energy consumption at the adjacent reverse osmosis desalination facility.
The project was developed by GS Inima in collaboration with local firm Nafath Renewable Energy as the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor. China-based OCA Global provided owner’s engineering services.
The Barka 5 IWP has a desalination capacity of approximately 100,000 cubic metres a day.
GS Inima won the contract to develop the Barka 5 IWP project in November 2020. As previously reported, financial close was reached in 2022, and construction of the facility was completed in 2024.
The self-supply solar PV plant is equipped with 10,504 bifacial modules supplied by China’s Jinko Solar. These are mounted on fixed structures provided by Mibet Energy.
Power is managed through 18 Sungrow inverters with a total capacity of 320kWac each, while electricity is fed into the desalination plant through an 11kV connection.
The integration of solar power supports the efficiency of the Barka 5 facility, which has an energy consumption rate of 2.7kWh per cubic metre.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16645971/main.jpg -
Qiddiya receives high-speed rail PPP prequalifications1 May 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City, in collaboration with Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP, received prequalification statements from firms on 30 April for the public-private partnership (PPP) package of the Qiddiya high-speed rail project in Riyadh.
This follows the submission of prequalification statements for the engineering, procurement, construction and financing (EPCF) package on 16 April, as reported by MEED.
The prequalification notice was issued on 19 January, and a project briefing session was held on 23 February at Qiddiya Entertainment City.
The Qiddiya high-speed rail project, also known as Q-Express, will connect King Salman International airport and the King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) with Qiddiya City. The line will operate at speeds of up to 250 kilometres an hour, reaching Qiddiya in 30 minutes.
The line is expected to be developed in two phases. The first phase will connect Qiddiya with KAFD and King Khalid International airport.
The second phase will start from a development known as the North Pole and travel to the New Murabba development, King Salman Park, central Riyadh and Industrial City in the south of the city.
In November last year, MEED reported that more than 145 local and international companies had expressed interest in developing the project, including 68 contracting companies, 23 design and project management consultants, 16 investment firms, 12 rail operators, 10 rolling stock providers and 16 other services firms.
In November 2023, MEED reported that French consultant Egis had been appointed as the technical adviser for the project. UK-based consultancy Ernst & Young is acting as the transaction adviser, and Ashurst is the legal adviser.
Qiddiya is one of Saudi Arabia’s five official gigaprojects and covers a total area of 376 square kilometres (sq km), with 223 sq km of developed land.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16641057/main.gif -
Bid deadline extensions hint at tighter project market1 May 2026
Commentary
Mark Dowdall
Power & water editorThere has been a steady run of bid deadline extensions across major power and water projects in recent weeks.
The latest is the Al-Dibdibah and Al-Shagaya solar independent power producer (IPP) plant in Kuwait, where the submission date has been moved again to 31 May, following an earlier shift from February to the end of April. Similarly, bidding for the first phase of the Al-Khairan IWPP has also been extended.
In Bahrain, bidding for the 1.2GW Sitra IWPP has been pushed back by another month to 17 May, having already been under main contract tender since last August.
Meanwhile, in Dubai, contractors have been given additional time to submit bids for both the Jebel Ali sewage treatment plant expansion and a dams rehabilitation project in Hatta.
Individually, these shifts are not unusual, and extensions are a routine part of the procurement cycle, especially with large, capital-intensive schemes.
However, amid regional tensions and increasingly complex risk profiles, stakeholders are having to weigh up how much they can absorb, whether that is performance guarantees, financing exposure or delivery risk.
For contractors and developers, this could mean looking more closely at supply chains, insurance costs and the potential for disruption. Lenders, too, are likely taking a more measured view on long-term exposure.
This caution can show up in the bid process. More internal approvals, more conservative pricing, and in some cases, perhaps a hesitation to commit altogether.
At the same time, strong pipelines across the GCC mean contractors are not short of work. Firms can afford to be selective, focusing on projects where risk and return are better aligned.
Clients, in turn, face a choice. Push ahead with more limited competition or extend and try to draw in stronger participation. Most appear to be opting for the latter.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16640998/main.jpg -
Saudi Arabia launches $2bn Jawharat Al-Arous project1 May 2026
Saudi Arabia has launched Jawharat Al-Arous, an SR8bn ($2bn) private-sector-led residential development in north Jeddah.
The scheme covers 107 million square metres and comprises 18 residential neighbourhoods planned to accommodate more than 700,000 residents. It will provide more than 80,000 residential and commercial plots.
The masterplan also includes 41 government-backed infrastructure and service zones to support large-scale urban expansion.
The project was unveiled by Mecca Region Governor Khalid Al-Faisal and will be overseen by Saud Bin Mishaal Bin Abdulaziz.
According to a recent report by real estate firm Cavendish Maxwell, Jeddah’s residential stock stood at about 1.09 million units at the end of 2025, following the completion of around 4,000 units that year.
An expanding pipeline of about 18,000 units in 2026 and 22,000 units in 2027 is expected to bring total stock to around 1.14 million units by 2027, gradually adding supply without destabilising market equilibrium.
GlobalData expects the Saudi construction industry to grow by 3.6% in real terms in 2026, supported by increased foreign direct investment (FDI) and investment in the housing and manufacturing sectors.
The residential construction sector is forecast to grow by 3.8% in real terms in 2026 and to record an average annual growth rate of 4.7% between 2027 and 2030, supported by Saudi Vision 2030’s goal of increasing homeownership from 65.4% in 2024 to 70% by 2030, including through the delivery of 600,000 homes by 2030.
MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:
> COMMENT: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift
> GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
> BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
> UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
> DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
> POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia
> WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
> CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
> TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure pushTo see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click herehttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16640863/main.png -
Damage to US bases in region expected to cost more than $15bn1 May 2026
The $25bn estimate a Pentagon official gave US lawmakers on 29 April did not include the cost of repairing damage to US bases in the Middle East, and the real cost of the war is likely to be between $40bn and $50bn, according to CNN.
That would put the cost of repairing bases and replacing destroyed assets at between $15bn and $25bn.
Jules Hurst III, the Pentagon official serving as the agency’s comptroller, told the House Armed Services Committee that “most” of the $25bn he cited had been spent on munitions. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth declined to say whether the figure included repairs to damaged US bases.
Iranian strikes across the Gulf in the early days of the war significantly damaged at least nine US military sites in 48 hours, hitting facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE and Qatar.
Six US servicemembers were killed in an attack on a command post in Kuwait, and 20 more were injured.
Three sources told CNN that the figure provided to the House Armed Services Committee did not include the cost of rebuilding US military installations and replacing destroyed assets.
One source said the true cost would likely be between $40bn and $50bn.
US contractors such as KBR and Fluor, as well as local firms, are likely to be among the leading contenders for contracts to repair and rebuild US bases in the region.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16638663/main.gif