meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

No end in sight for Lebanon’s economic woes

12 June 2023

This package on Lebanon also includes:

> Political deadlock in Lebanon blocks reforms
> Lebanon moves to secure $150m solar financing
> Dar al-Handasah acquires Turkish consultant
> Eni and Total complete Lebanon gas deal

 

Experts remain pessimistic about the outlook for Lebanon’s economy as the crisis continues to worsen more than three years after it began in 2019.

The country only has a caretaker government and no president – and it is hard to see how it will implement the reforms the IMF says are needed.

On 8 June, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said: “Lebanon needs urgent action to implement a comprehensive economic reform programme to arrest the severe and deepening crisis and to allow Lebanon’s economy to recover.”

She added that the IMF was concerned that delays in implementing key reforms were keeping the economy severely depressed.

“We are concerned about irreversible consequences for the economy, especially for the poor citizens of Lebanon and the middle class,” she said.

Lebanon’s currency has weakened dramatically since the start of the country’s economic crisis, plunging much of the population into poverty.

In March, the Lebanese pound, officially pegged at 15,000 to the dollar, was trading at 100,000 against the dollar on the country’s parallel market, down from 1,507 before the economic crisis hit in 2019.

In May, a World Bank report stated: “The systemic failure of Lebanon’s banking system and the collapse of the currency have resulted in a large, dollarised cash-based economy.

“It not only threatens to compromise the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy, but also heightens the risk of money laundering, increases informality and prompts further tax evasion.”

In April 2020, the Lebanese government agreed with IMF staff to implement a series of reforms to end the crisis, but very few have been executed.

This is mainly due to the country’s ongoing political deadlock.

Lebanon has had no head of state since President Michel Aoun’s term ended at the end of October 2022, worsening the country’s political paralysis at a time when important policy decisions are needed to get the economy back on track.

According to the IMF, the economic outlook for Lebanon is highly uncertain and depends on policy actions taken by the authorities to carry out the agreed reforms.

Kozack said: “Timely implementation of these reforms is critical to end the current crisis and prevent a further deterioration in living standards of the people of Lebanon.”

She added: “Lebanon will need strong financial support from the broader international community and the financial needs of Lebanon over the next several years are very large given the magnitude of the economic crisis.”

Bailout prospects

While the IMF has said that Lebanon will need significant financial support from other countries to help it get through its economic crisis, it is unclear where that support will come from.

Nicholas Blanford, a non-resident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programmes, says it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia will be willing to bail the country out financially as it has done in the past.

He said: “Saudi Arabia has pumped billions of dollars into Lebanon over the years, including helping with the reconstruction programme in the 1990s after the civil war. Saudi has also helped Lebanon financially through various economic slumps.”

The change of leadership in Saudi Arabia when King Salman came to the throne in 2015 led to a change in policy regarding financial bailouts for Lebanon, according to Blanford.

“It seems like Saudi feels that it got very little in return for its past investment in Lebanon due to the fact that Hezbollah remains a dominant force in the country politically and militarily.

“The Americans and the French have, for several years, been pressing the Saudis to show more interest in Lebanon as a pushback against Iranian influence, but, so far, they haven’t shown much interest.”

The Lebanese are keeping their fingers crossed that economically viable quantities of oil and gas are found, but there is also a huge amount of scepticism given the state of the political system here and the nature of the politicians
Nicholas Blanford, Atlantic Council’s Middle East programmes

In October last year, Lebanon and Israel agreed a deal to end a long-running maritime border dispute in the Mediterranean Sea, clearing the way for increased oil and gas exploration activity in Lebanese waters.

Following the deal, in May this year, it was announced that a consortium led by France’s TotalEnergies would start drilling for oil and gas off the country's coast at the beginning of September.

While it is possible that new hydrocarbon discoveries in Lebanese waters could help ease the country’s economic problems over the long term, it is doubtful that this would provide any benefit in the short term, according to Blanford.

“The Lebanese are keeping their fingers crossed that economically viable quantities of oil and gas are found, but there is also a huge amount of scepticism given the state of the political system here and the nature of the politicians themselves.”

Blanford believes that many Lebanese citizens are worried that if commercially viable quantities of hydrocarbons are found, they are ultimately only likely to benefit the country’s oligarchs rather than the general public.

Due to the wide range of severe political and economic problems that Lebanon faces, there is unlikely to be any improvement over the coming months unless common ground is found between the country’s rival political blocs.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10932005/main.gif
Wil Crisp

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Kuwait shows tentative signs of economic development

    7 August 2026

     

    Kuwait was one of the chief targets of Iranian drone and missile strikes during July, but against the backdrop of regional instability, the Kuwaiti authorities also managed to conclude a series of significant deals during the month. That suggests that, if the US and Iran can come to some sort of agreement to end their conflict, there is the potential for the Kuwaiti economy to diversify and expand in a way that it has, until now, struggled to do.

    The sense of nascent progress was bolstered in early August, when a survey of local businesses found that the non-oil sector had returned to growth at the start of the third quarter, having been in a slump since the start of the war. However, the risk of renewed fighting means most observers remain deeply cautious about whether the latest purchasing managers index (PMI) is just a blip, or the start of a longer trend.

    Debt deals

    The first big deal came on 22 July, when the government sold $6bn-worth of bonds. It was the second debt issuance by the authorities since a long-awaited public debt law was passed by decree last year. The latest package included debt with tenors of three, five and 10 years. In a sign of the turbulent geopolitical environment, the bonds were priced at 70-85 basis points over US Treasuries. Notably higher than the 40-50 basis point spread the government achieved in its bond sale late last year.

    The second significant development came just a few days later, with Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) unveiling a $16bn deal with international investors Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR for its crude oil pipeline network. In a similar structure to deals struck in the past by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) and Saudi Aramco, KOC will lease the country’s domestic and export pipelines to a new joint venture it has set up with the trio of international partners. The Kuwaiti energy company will then lease back the pipelines on an exclusive basis, in return for a volume-based tariff.

    KOC will have a 51% stake in the joint venture and – in line with Kuwaiti law – will retain full ownership and operational control of the 320-kilometre network.

    It was the largest energy infrastructure deal ever agreed in Kuwait and, according to KOC, the largest foreign direct investment made in the country. The $7.85bn that the three international partners will invest upfront will be used to support KOC parent company Kuwait Petroleum Corporation’s wider capital expenditure plans.

    The fact that the country was able to secure the deal at a time when its only existing export route – through the Strait of Hormuz – has been effectively closed off is an important vote of confidence by investors in the country’s longer-term prospects. According to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, Kuwait’s crude export volumes had fallen from 1.2 million barrels a day before the year to zero in April.

    It was the largest energy infrastructure deal ever agreed in Kuwait and, according to KOC, the largest foreign direct investment made in the country

    UK-based Oxford Economics noted that the bond issue and the pipeline deal came at a time when Kuwait “faces elevated fiscal funding needs and remains one of the GCC’s most exposed oil exporters to any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz given its limited alternative export infrastructure”.

    Blackstone said it also plans to open an office in Kuwait this year. There was a further show of investor interest in early August, when the Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) reportedly agreed a $4.25bn, three-year loan from a group of 14 banks. The facility will be used for general corporate purposes, according to Bloomberg.

    In a further notable development, Kuwait’s Ministry of Public Works also handed a contract in late July to China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) to build the country’s largest wastewater treatment plant. The North Kabd plant will have a capacity of up to 1 million cubic metres a day (cm/d). Kuwaiti water desalination plants have been hit on several occasions by Iranian drones during this year’s war, causing fires and other damage.

    Policy reforms

    On a smaller level, some notable reforms have been rolled out to try to shape the direction of the non-oil economy too. In late July, the Ministry of Commerce & Industry stopped issuing any more sole-trader or freelance business licences, while a review is carried out into the sector and official oversight is tightened.

    The authorities went a step further on 2 August, when a decree was issued to stop businesses offering goods and services without the right sort of licence. Anyone found to be working without the required permit could now face a prison term of up to three years and a fine of up to KD100,000 ($323,000) – or a sum equivalent to the profits generated by the unlicensed activity, whichever is greater.

    Some steps have been taken to ease restrictions in other areas. In early August, a change to the visa system was announced that will allow some foreign nationals to convert a visit visa into a regular residency permit in return for a fee of KD150. The measure proved immediately popular, but many applicants had failed to read the small print and, according to local media reports, several hundred were rejected. The scheme is primarily aimed at those seeking to bring their wives or children to Kuwait, as well as humanitarian cases and others with exceptional circumstances.

    Economic recovery

    The wider economy is showing tentative signs of improvement. The latest PMI survey delivered an unexpectedly strong result, showing that the non-oil private sector returned to growth in July for the first time since the war began.

    S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiles the index, said the resumption of flights at Kuwait International airport had helped to support a rise in output and new orders – the first for five months. That in turn supported greater purchasing and hiring activity by local businesses and took the index up to 50.8 points – just above the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction.

    Even so, S&P warned that market conditions remain “challenging” while local bank NBK Capital warned in early August that “it remains to be seen how much of this improvement [in the PMI] will be sustained … following the reescalation in US-Iran tensions in the past weeks”.

    If the Kuwaiti economy is to make the most of its potential, the country needs the war between Iran and the US to come to a definitive end.

    MEED’s September 2026 report on Kuwait also includes:

    > BANKING: Necessity is the mother of invention for Kuwaiti lenders
    > OIL & GAS: Regional war to have lasting impact on Kuwaiti oil sector
    > CONSTRUCTION: Kuwait construction holds up despite regional strife

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18199239/main.gif
    Dominic Dudley
  • Seven opens entertainment complex in Abha

    7 August 2026

    Saudi Entertainment Ventures (Seven) has opened its integrated recreational complex in Abha, the first of 14 entertainment destinations the company plans to develop across the kingdom.

    Local contractor Modern Building Leaders (MBL) built the complex under an estimated SR950m ($253m) contract awarded in December 2022. The scheme has a built-up area of more than 70,000 square metres and features go-karting, edutainment, bowling and indoor golf facilities.

    Seven is a wholly owned subsidiary of Qiddiya Investment Company. The Abha complex is the first Seven project to be completed, and supports the Public Investment Fund’s strategy to develop the entertainment and sports sector in line with Saudi Vision 2030.

    The destination is located within the Abha International airport cluster and connects the airport with the region’s cultural, tourism and entertainment sites. Entertainment experiences at the complex include Formula E Karting alongside Seven-developed concepts such as Kawaken, GolFi, Cyber Bowling and Scene Cinema.

    Consultants on the project include Dar Engineering and Lebanon’s Khatib & Alami, with the UK’s Mace International as project management consultant, according to regional projects tracker MEED Projects.

    Seven plans to invest SR50bn ($13.3bn) in developing 21 integrated entertainment destinations across 14 cities in the kingdom as Riyadh pursues its strategy to diversify away from hydrocarbons, create jobs and improve quality of life.

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18196472/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Nine contractors submit bids for Oman flood protection dam

    7 August 2026

     

    Oman’s Ministry of Agricultural, Fisheries Wealth & Water Resources has received bids from nine contractors for the construction of the Wadi Rijma flood protection dam in Liwa, North Batinah Governorate.

    The Wadi Rijma dam project is one of four flood protection dams being planned in the sultanate to intercept floodwaters flowing from the northern Omani mountain range into the coastal plain.

    The bids include seven local contractors, one from Turkiye and one from China. The lowest offer of $50.6m was made by Strabag Oman.

    The full list of bidders includes: 

    • Strabag Oman ($50.6m)
    • Detonator Engineering ($53.0m)
    • AZ Engineers & Partners ($54.3m)
    • Eksen Project Construction Tourism & Trade (Turkiye, $58.4m)
    • Galfar Engineering & Contracting ($58.7m)
    • The Arab Contractors Oman ($59.3m)
    • Premier International Projects ($59.4m)
    • China International Water & Electric Corporation (China, $60.0m)
    • Khimji Ramdas Construction ($62.4m)

    MEED reported in March that the ministry had issued the tender for the project, which aims to protect flood-prone areas, reduce risks to life and property, and support groundwater recharge where possible.

    The proposed Wadi Rijma dam (R2A) is located between the mountain range to the south and west and the Gulf of Oman to the north and east. The area is characterised by wadis that cut deep valleys before spreading into multiple channels across alluvial fans.

    In June 2025, MEED reported that the Islamic Development Bank (ISDB) had extended a $632m loan to the ministry to fund the construction of four major flood protection dams in the sultanate.

    The four projects are:

    • Wadi Al-Khoud Flood Protection Dam (AK01) in Seeb
    • Wadi Rijma Flood Protection Dam (R2A) in Liwa
    • Wadi Majlas Flood Protection Dam in Qurayat
    • Wadi Ahin Flood Protection Dam in Saham North

    In June, the ministry invited contractors to bid for the construction of the Wadi Al-Khoudh flood protection dam in Wilayat Al-Seeb, Muscat Governorate.

    The contract is being tendered under ISDB’s Climate-Resilient Flood Protection Dams Project.

    The tender marks the revival of a project that has been on hold since 2019. The project was originally planned by the former Ministry of Regional Municipalities & Water Resources and was previously estimated to be worth about $159m.

    The bid submission deadline is 9 August.

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18193497/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Syria signs 760MW solar power purchase agreements

    7 August 2026

    The Syrian Electricity Company (Sec) has signed power purchase agreements (PPAs) with Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed Ahmed Al-Harfi Company for three solar power projects with a combined generation capacity of 760MW.

    The projects will be supported by battery energy storage systems (bess) with a total storage capacity of 1,077MWh and will be located in the Widyan Al-Rabie area of Rif Dimashq.

    The PPAs were signed in Damascus on 5 August under the supervision of Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy. According to the ministry, the agreements range from 20 to 25 years and cover the provision of electricity at tariffs starting from $0.03/kWh.

    Alongside the PPAs, Al-Harfi signed two technical cooperation agreements. 

    Saudi Electricity Project Development Company (PDC) will provide engineering and advisory services to support the management and implementation of the solar projects. Germany’s Siemens Energy will provide technical cooperation and expertise covering substations, power generation and bess.

    The latest agreements build on a memorandum of understanding signed in February between Syria’s former General Establishment for Electricity Transmission and Distribution and Al-Harfi to develop a 210MW solar project supported by an 827MWh bess.

    The projects are among the first major investments signed by Sec since it was established in April following a restructuring of Syria’s electricity sector. The new state-owned utility replaced the former Public Establishment for Generation and the Public Establishment for Transmission and Distribution of Electricity and assumed their assets, contracts and obligations.

    Separately, in a LinkedIn post published on 6 August, Acwa vice-chairman and managing director Raad Al-Saady said he had accompanied the Saudi Ministry of Energy on a visit to Damascus to sign agreements and discuss existing and potential energy projects in Syria.

    He said he represented Acwa and the infrastructure committee of the Saudi Syrian Business Council during the visit.

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18192007/main1207.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Lowest bidder emerges for Dewa Solar Park phase seven

    7 August 2026

     

    Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) is likely to be awarded the contract to develop the seventh phase of the Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum Solar Park after submitting the lowest bid for the project, sources have told MEED.

    Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) received bids on 1 July, as previously reported by MEED.

    According to a source, China’s BYD will act as battery energy storage system (bess) supplier for the project, while another Chinese firm, Gotion, is also understood to be in the running to supply battery storage technology.

    Phase seven will add 2,000MW from photovoltaic (PV) solar panels and include a 1,400MW bess with a six-hour capacity, providing a total storage capacity of 8,400 megawatt-hours. 

    Technical and financial offers were opened last month after developers including Saudi Arabia’s Acwa, the UAE’s Etihad Water & Electricity and Masdar submitted bids for the project.

    Dewa completed the prequalification process for the latest phase of the world’s largest single-site solar park in 2025. 

    As previously reported, 47 firms submitted their responses to Dewa’s expression of interest request for the contract in March 2025. The main tender was issued last November.

    The transaction advisory team for the project comprises UK-headquartered Deloitte and US-based CMS and Sargent & Lundy as financial, legal and technical advisers, with Deloitte acting as lead adviser. 

    Dewa phase six

    Masdar is also expected to commission the 1,800MW sixth phase of the MBR Solar Park in the third quarter of this year.

    The $1.5bn facility is being implemented by Shuaa Energy 4, a special purpose vehicle jointly owned by Masdar (40%) and Dewa (60%). It is understood that the winning bidder for Dewa 7 will enter into a similar partnership.

    The companies reached financial close on the sixth phase in 2024.

    India’s Larsen & Toubro (L&T) has been working as the main engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor. The firm is also working with Masdar on Abu Dhabi’s round-the-clock 5.2GW solar PV plus bess project that reached financial close last month. 

    Also in July, a Masdar-led consortium emerged as the frontrunner for a contract to develop Kuwait’s first utility-scale solar PV plant.

    Once completed, the sixth phase will increase the solar park’s total production capacity to 4,660MW. Dewa increased its flagship solar project’s 2030 installed capacity target last year by 45%, from 5,000MW to 7,260MW. This comprises a total investment of AED50bn ($13.6bn).

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18189204/main5104.jpg
    Mark Dowdall