No end in sight for Lebanon’s economic woes

12 June 2023

This package on Lebanon also includes:

Political deadlock in Lebanon blocks reforms
Lebanon moves to secure $150m solar financing
Dar al-Handasah acquires Turkish consultant
Eni and Total complete Lebanon gas deal

 

Experts remain pessimistic about the outlook for Lebanon’s economy as the crisis continues to worsen more than three years after it began in 2019.

The country only has a caretaker government and no president – and it is hard to see how it will implement the reforms the IMF says are needed.

On 8 June, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said: “Lebanon needs urgent action to implement a comprehensive economic reform programme to arrest the severe and deepening crisis and to allow Lebanon’s economy to recover.”

She added that the IMF was concerned that delays in implementing key reforms were keeping the economy severely depressed.

“We are concerned about irreversible consequences for the economy, especially for the poor citizens of Lebanon and the middle class,” she said.

Lebanon’s currency has weakened dramatically since the start of the country’s economic crisis, plunging much of the population into poverty.

In March, the Lebanese pound, officially pegged at 15,000 to the dollar, was trading at 100,000 against the dollar on the country’s parallel market, down from 1,507 before the economic crisis hit in 2019.

In May, a World Bank report stated: “The systemic failure of Lebanon’s banking system and the collapse of the currency have resulted in a large, dollarised cash-based economy.

“It not only threatens to compromise the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy, but also heightens the risk of money laundering, increases informality and prompts further tax evasion.”

In April 2020, the Lebanese government agreed with IMF staff to implement a series of reforms to end the crisis, but very few have been executed.

This is mainly due to the country’s ongoing political deadlock.

Lebanon has had no head of state since President Michel Aoun’s term ended at the end of October 2022, worsening the country’s political paralysis at a time when important policy decisions are needed to get the economy back on track.

According to the IMF, the economic outlook for Lebanon is highly uncertain and depends on policy actions taken by the authorities to carry out the agreed reforms.

Kozack said: “Timely implementation of these reforms is critical to end the current crisis and prevent a further deterioration in living standards of the people of Lebanon.”

She added: “Lebanon will need strong financial support from the broader international community and the financial needs of Lebanon over the next several years are very large given the magnitude of the economic crisis.”

Bailout prospects

While the IMF has said that Lebanon will need significant financial support from other countries to help it get through its economic crisis, it is unclear where that support will come from.

Nicholas Blanford, a non-resident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programmes, says it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia will be willing to bail the country out financially as it has done in the past.

He said: “Saudi Arabia has pumped billions of dollars into Lebanon over the years, including helping with the reconstruction programme in the 1990s after the civil war. Saudi has also helped Lebanon financially through various economic slumps.”

The change of leadership in Saudi Arabia when King Salman came to the throne in 2015 led to a change in policy regarding financial bailouts for Lebanon, according to Blanford.

“It seems like Saudi feels that it got very little in return for its past investment in Lebanon due to the fact that Hezbollah remains a dominant force in the country politically and militarily.

“The Americans and the French have, for several years, been pressing the Saudis to show more interest in Lebanon as a pushback against Iranian influence, but, so far, they haven’t shown much interest.”

The Lebanese are keeping their fingers crossed that economically viable quantities of oil and gas are found, but there is also a huge amount of scepticism given the state of the political system here and the nature of the politicians
Nicholas Blanford, Atlantic Council’s Middle East programmes

In October last year, Lebanon and Israel agreed a deal to end a long-running maritime border dispute in the Mediterranean Sea, clearing the way for increased oil and gas exploration activity in Lebanese waters.

Following the deal, in May this year, it was announced that a consortium led by France’s TotalEnergies would start drilling for oil and gas off the country's coast at the beginning of September.

While it is possible that new hydrocarbon discoveries in Lebanese waters could help ease the country’s economic problems over the long term, it is doubtful that this would provide any benefit in the short term, according to Blanford.

“The Lebanese are keeping their fingers crossed that economically viable quantities of oil and gas are found, but there is also a huge amount of scepticism given the state of the political system here and the nature of the politicians themselves.”

Blanford believes that many Lebanese citizens are worried that if commercially viable quantities of hydrocarbons are found, they are ultimately only likely to benefit the country’s oligarchs rather than the general public.

Due to the wide range of severe political and economic problems that Lebanon faces, there is unlikely to be any improvement over the coming months unless common ground is found between the country’s rival political blocs.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10932005/main.gif
Wil Crisp
Related Articles
  • Saudi Arabia names Expo 2030 Riyadh Company CEO

    23 June 2025

    Saudi sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund (PIF) has named Talal Al-Marri as the CEO to lead the newly-launched Expo 2030 Riyadh Company (ERC).

    In an official statement published by the Saudi Press Agency, the PIF said that Al-Marri "is expected to lead the Expo 2030 Riyadh team in delivering a world-class exhibition that reflects the kingdom’s ambitions and rapid development, in alignment with the objectives of Saudi Vision 2030".

    Al-Marri has previously held several senior executive roles at Saudi Aramco, including president and CEO of Aramco Europe, senior vice president of community services and senior vice president of industrial services.

    The announcement follows the establishment of ERC as a wholly-owned subsidiary of the PIF that will build and operate facilities for Expo 2030.

    In a statement, the PIF said: “During its construction phases, Expo 2030 Riyadh and its legacy are projected to contribute around $64bn to Saudi GDP and generate approximately 171,000 direct and indirect jobs. Once operational, it is expected to contribute approximately $5.6bn to GDP.”

    The masterplan for Expo 2030 Riyadh encompasses an area of 6 square kilometres, making it one of the largest sites designated for a World Expo. Situated to the north of the city, the expo site will be located near the future King Salman International airport, providing direct access to various landmarks within the Saudi capital.

    Countries participating in Expo 2030 Riyadh will have the option to construct permanent pavilions, contributing to the event's legacy. This initiative is expected to create opportunities for business and investment growth in the region.

    The expo is projected to attract over 40 million visitors. After the event concludes, ERC plans to convert the expo's secured area into a global village, to serve as a multicultural centre for retail and dining. This development will also include an international residential community with various amenities, with a focus on sustainable tourism practices.

    Expo 2030 Riyadh will run from 1 October 2030 to 31 March 2031.

    In mid-May, MEED reported that Riyadh had begun talks with stakeholders in preparation for the start of the construction works for the event.

    The discussions were understood to have been held with the Royal Commission for Riyadh City and the PIF.

    German architectural firm Lava Architects and US-based engineering firm Jacobs are assisting with the project masterplan and the design of infrastructure for the site.


    READ THE JUNE 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Gulf accelerates AI and data centre strategy; Baghdad keeps up project spending, but fiscal clouds gather; Banking stocks rise despite lower global oil prices

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index leaps 4.3%
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14116512/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Adnoc prepares tender for next Upper Zakum field expansion

    23 June 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Adnoc Offshore is preparing to start the tendering process for the next expansion phase of the Upper Zakum field development in Abu Dhabi, the objective of which is to increase the asset’s oil production potential to 1.5 million barrels a day (b/d).

    MEED reported in November that the offshore oil and gas production business of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Offshore) had awarded a contract for pre-front-end engineering and design (pre-feed) and feed services on the project to France-headquartered contractor Technip Energies.

    A kick-off meeting between Adnoc Offshore and Technip Energies took place on 21 November, it was previously reported.

    Pre-feed and feed works on the project, which is known as UZ 1.5MMBD, are in an advanced stage, according to sources. “Adnoc Offshore could be expected to issue the main engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) tender as early as July,” one source said.

    Located 84 kilometres offshore in Abu Dhabi, Upper Zakum is the world’s second-largest offshore oil field and fourth-largest oil field.

    The UZ 1.5MMBD project is the latest crude output expansion project that Adnoc Offshore has undertaken at the Upper Zakum field development.

    Upper Zakum expansion

    The first phase of the programme to raise the Upper Zakum offshore field development’s oil production capacity to 1.2 million b/d was launched in 2019. The initial goal was to increase the field’s output potential to 1 million b/d by 2024, which was later increased to 1.2 million b/d, with the project execution timeline eventually extended.

    In April last year, MEED reported that Adnoc Offshore had awarded the main EPC contract for the UZ 1.2MMBD EPC-1 project to UAE-based Target Engineering Construction Company. The value of the contract was estimated to be $825m.

    The project’s main scope involves the EPC of several surface facilities and plants at the Upper Zakum offshore development’s four main artificial islands: Al-Ghallan, Umm Al-Anbar, Ettouk and Asseifiya – also known as Central Island, West Island, North Island and South Island, respectively.

    Spanish contractor Tecnicas Reunidas won the contract for the feed works on the UZ 1.2MMBD EPC-1 project in 2019. UK-headquartered Wood Group was appointed as the project management consultant for the EPC phase.

    In November, MEED reported that Adnoc Offshore had also selected Target for the second phase of the Upper Zakum 1.2 million b/d project (UZ 1.2MMBD EPC-2). The value of the contract was estimated to be about $500m, according to sources.

    Target began work on the project in December, MEED previously reported.

    The scope of work on the UZ 1.2MMBD EPC-2 project covers the EPC of several structures on Assefiya Island.

    Adnoc Offshore performed the feed work on the UZ 1.2MMBD EPC-2 project in-house.

    Upper Zakum oil production

    Adnoc Offshore has committed to a total capital expenditure budget of approximately $30bn, along with its operating partners in the Upper Zakum hydrocarbons concession, Japan Oil Development Company (Jodco) and US-based ExxonMobil

    The strategic objective is to first raise the asset’s oil output from 640,000 b/d to 750,000 b/d through the UZ 750 project, then to 1.2 million b/d through the two phases of the ongoing UZ 1.2MMBD project, and eventually to 1.5 million b/d.

    Zakum Development Company (Zadco), which later merged into Adnoc Offshore, awarded EPC contracts for the UZ 750 project in 2012 and early 2013.

    The $817m first package was awarded to a consortium of Abu Dhabi’s NMDC Energy (then known as National Petroleum Construction Company) and Technip Energies. Package two, the project’s largest EPC package, worth $3.7bn, was awarded to a consortium of UK-headquartered Petrofac and South Korea’s Daewoo Shipbuilding & Engineering.

    EPC work on UZ 750 began in 2014 and was completed in 2022.

    In October 2022, Adnoc Group subsidiary Adnoc Drilling set a world record for drilling the longest oil and gas well at the Upper Zakum concession, stretching 50,000 feet.

    The extended-reach wells will tap into an undeveloped part of the Upper Zakum reservoir, potentially increasing the field’s production capacity by 15,000 b/d without expanding or building any new infrastructure, Adnoc said.

    ALSO READ: Adnoc signs $60bn of agreements with US companies


    READ THE JUNE 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Gulf accelerates AI and data centre strategy; Baghdad keeps up project spending, but fiscal clouds gather; Banking stocks rise despite lower global oil prices

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index leaps 4.3%
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14115851/main5852.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Beltone Leasing secures $20m funding from German investor

    23 June 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Beltone Leasing & Factoring has signed a $20m funding agreement with Germany-based Finance in Motion to expand lending to small businesses and support green finance initiatives across the Middle East and North Africa (Mena).

    The funding is evenly split between two investment vehicles: $10m from the Sanad Fund for micro, small and medium enterprises, and $10m from the Green for Growth Fund. Both facilities have a tenor of five years.

    Beltone said the funding will be used to provide finance for underserved businesses and low-income households, and to support renewable energy, energy efficiency and sustainable resource projects.

    In 2021, the Egyptian Financial Regulatory Authority introduced mandatory environmental, social and governance (ESG) and climate-related financial disclosures for listed companies and non-bank financial institutions. The first reporting cycle began in 2023. The agreement comes as financial institutions in the region face growing pressure to meet environmental and social targets while expanding credit to the private sector.

    Beltone Leasing & Factoring is a wholly owned subsidiary of Beltone Holding. The company offers financing solutions including leasing and factoring products to corporate and SME clients.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14115758/main5331.jpg
    Sarah Rizvi
  • PIF firm prepares Pirelli tyre plant contract award

    23 June 2025

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Mena Tyre Company is preparing to award a contract to build a Pirelli tyre manufacturing plant in King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC).

    MEED understands that the contract is being finalised and is expected to be signed within the next few weeks.

    The tender notice was issued in December last year, and firms submitted their final offers in April.

    Mena Tyre Company is a joint venture of Saudi sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and Italian tyre maker Pirelli Tyre. The PIF holds a 75% stake in the venture, with Pirelli holding the remaining 25%.

    The plant is expected to start production in 2026. It will make tyres for passenger vehicles under the Pirelli brand. It will also manufacture and market tyres under a new local brand targeting the domestic and regional markets.

    The plant is expected to have the capacity to produce 3.5 million tyres a year.

    In March, MEED exclusively reported that the PIF and Pirelli Tyre had tendered the contract to build an estimated $550m tyre manufacturing plant in KAEC.

    UK-based firm Jones Lang LaSalle is the project consultant.

    The project is located within the King Salman Automotive Cluster of KAEC, which was officially announced on 6 February by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Al-Saud. 

    The move was part of the kingdom’s push to become a dominant player in the Gulf’s automotive sector. It follows investment in recent years in infrastructure, supply chain development and research to attract global automakers to Saudi Arabia and create an ecosystem for electric vehicle (EV) production in particular – all driven by the Saudi Vision 2030 mandate to diversify the economy.

    The cluster is expected to be a major contributor to the National Industrial Development and Logistics Programme (NIDLP), which aims to develop high-growth sectors locally and attract foreign investment.

    Several schemes supporting the NIDLP have made significant progress in recent years, including multibillion-dollar EV manufacturing plants backed by the PIF, such as assembly facilities for US-based Lucid Motors and Ceer, the kingdom’s first homegrown EV brand, launched by the PIF in collaboration with Taiwan’s Foxconn.

    These facilities are supported by the National Automotive & Mobility Investment Company (Tasaru Mobility Investments), which the PIF established in 2023 to develop the kingdom’s local supply chain capabilities for the automotive and mobility industries.

    The PIF then signed several agreements with international companies, including South Korean car maker Hyundai and Pirelli, to establish production facilities in KAEC's automotive cluster.


    READ THE JUNE 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Gulf accelerates AI and data centre strategy; Baghdad keeps up project spending, but fiscal clouds gather; Banking stocks rise despite lower global oil prices

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index leaps 4.3%
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14115309/main5503.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Bahrain opens highway consultancy bids

    23 June 2025

    Bahrain’s Ministry of Works has opened the commercial bids that it received from firms for a contract covering the pre-contract engineering consultancy services for the next phase of the Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah Highway upgrade.

    According to the official notice published by the Bahrain Tender Board, the scope of the contract includes designs to update the highway to at least five lanes each way, update utility corridors, revise the stormwater design and prepare contract drawings and tender documents.

    The bidders include:

    • Parsons Corporation (US) – $1.5m
    • Aecom (US) – $1.6m

    In March, the Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development and Bahrain’s government signed a KD10m ($32.4m) loan agreement to fund the second phase of the Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah Highway, which is expected to cost about $404m.

    According to data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects, the construction on the project’s first phase was completed in 2020.

    A joint venture of local firm Nass Contracting and Kuwait’s KCC Engineering & Contracting undertook the project’s main construction works.

    According to a report by UK data analytics firm GlobalData, Bahrain’s construction industry is expected to grow by 3.5% in real terms in 2025, supported by public and private sector investments in industrial, commercial and energy construction projects, coupled with the rise in the value of awarded tenders.

    The report adds that the total value of tenders awarded grew by 145.2% year-on-year in 2024, preceded by an annual growth of 114.1% in 2023.

    The infrastructure construction sector is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2025, before registering an annual average growth of 5.4% in 2026-29, supported by investments in major road and airport construction projects.


    READ THE JUNE 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Gulf accelerates AI and data centre strategy; Baghdad keeps up project spending, but fiscal clouds gather; Banking stocks rise despite lower global oil prices

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index leaps 4.3%
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14115007/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal