meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

No end in sight for Lebanon’s economic woes

12 June 2023

This package on Lebanon also includes:

> Political deadlock in Lebanon blocks reforms
> Lebanon moves to secure $150m solar financing
> Dar al-Handasah acquires Turkish consultant
> Eni and Total complete Lebanon gas deal

 

Experts remain pessimistic about the outlook for Lebanon’s economy as the crisis continues to worsen more than three years after it began in 2019.

The country only has a caretaker government and no president – and it is hard to see how it will implement the reforms the IMF says are needed.

On 8 June, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said: “Lebanon needs urgent action to implement a comprehensive economic reform programme to arrest the severe and deepening crisis and to allow Lebanon’s economy to recover.”

She added that the IMF was concerned that delays in implementing key reforms were keeping the economy severely depressed.

“We are concerned about irreversible consequences for the economy, especially for the poor citizens of Lebanon and the middle class,” she said.

Lebanon’s currency has weakened dramatically since the start of the country’s economic crisis, plunging much of the population into poverty.

In March, the Lebanese pound, officially pegged at 15,000 to the dollar, was trading at 100,000 against the dollar on the country’s parallel market, down from 1,507 before the economic crisis hit in 2019.

In May, a World Bank report stated: “The systemic failure of Lebanon’s banking system and the collapse of the currency have resulted in a large, dollarised cash-based economy.

“It not only threatens to compromise the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy, but also heightens the risk of money laundering, increases informality and prompts further tax evasion.”

In April 2020, the Lebanese government agreed with IMF staff to implement a series of reforms to end the crisis, but very few have been executed.

This is mainly due to the country’s ongoing political deadlock.

Lebanon has had no head of state since President Michel Aoun’s term ended at the end of October 2022, worsening the country’s political paralysis at a time when important policy decisions are needed to get the economy back on track.

According to the IMF, the economic outlook for Lebanon is highly uncertain and depends on policy actions taken by the authorities to carry out the agreed reforms.

Kozack said: “Timely implementation of these reforms is critical to end the current crisis and prevent a further deterioration in living standards of the people of Lebanon.”

She added: “Lebanon will need strong financial support from the broader international community and the financial needs of Lebanon over the next several years are very large given the magnitude of the economic crisis.”

Bailout prospects

While the IMF has said that Lebanon will need significant financial support from other countries to help it get through its economic crisis, it is unclear where that support will come from.

Nicholas Blanford, a non-resident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programmes, says it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia will be willing to bail the country out financially as it has done in the past.

He said: “Saudi Arabia has pumped billions of dollars into Lebanon over the years, including helping with the reconstruction programme in the 1990s after the civil war. Saudi has also helped Lebanon financially through various economic slumps.”

The change of leadership in Saudi Arabia when King Salman came to the throne in 2015 led to a change in policy regarding financial bailouts for Lebanon, according to Blanford.

“It seems like Saudi feels that it got very little in return for its past investment in Lebanon due to the fact that Hezbollah remains a dominant force in the country politically and militarily.

“The Americans and the French have, for several years, been pressing the Saudis to show more interest in Lebanon as a pushback against Iranian influence, but, so far, they haven’t shown much interest.”

The Lebanese are keeping their fingers crossed that economically viable quantities of oil and gas are found, but there is also a huge amount of scepticism given the state of the political system here and the nature of the politicians
Nicholas Blanford, Atlantic Council’s Middle East programmes

In October last year, Lebanon and Israel agreed a deal to end a long-running maritime border dispute in the Mediterranean Sea, clearing the way for increased oil and gas exploration activity in Lebanese waters.

Following the deal, in May this year, it was announced that a consortium led by France’s TotalEnergies would start drilling for oil and gas off the country's coast at the beginning of September.

While it is possible that new hydrocarbon discoveries in Lebanese waters could help ease the country’s economic problems over the long term, it is doubtful that this would provide any benefit in the short term, according to Blanford.

“The Lebanese are keeping their fingers crossed that economically viable quantities of oil and gas are found, but there is also a huge amount of scepticism given the state of the political system here and the nature of the politicians themselves.”

Blanford believes that many Lebanese citizens are worried that if commercially viable quantities of hydrocarbons are found, they are ultimately only likely to benefit the country’s oligarchs rather than the general public.

Due to the wide range of severe political and economic problems that Lebanon faces, there is unlikely to be any improvement over the coming months unless common ground is found between the country’s rival political blocs.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10932005/main.gif
Wil Crisp

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • War takes a rising toll on Kuwait’s oil sector

    6 April 2026

    Commentary
    Wil Crisp
    Oil & gas reporter

    The US and Israel’s ongoing war on Iran is taking a rising toll on Kuwait’s oil sector, which is likely to be felt for years, even if the war concludes relatively quickly.

    The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping has meant that Kuwaiti oil exports have completely stopped, forcing the country to declare force majeure last month.

    The inability to export oil has led storage facilities to reach maximum capacity and forced Kuwait to stop production completely at key oil fields.

    Resuming production from these assets is not likely to be easy, and production from these fields could take months to ramp up to normal levels even if shipping is allowed to cross the Strait of Hormuz freely.

    The blockage in the Strait of Hormuz has also prevented Kuwaitis from importing equipment and materials to carry out maintenance work or projects in the oil and gas sector.

    On top of the severe negative impacts caused by the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the country’s energy sector is seeing increasing damage to oil and gas facilities from Iranian strikes.

    Over the past few days, a wide range of Kuwaiti oil and gas infrastructure has been hit and damaged.

    This includes strikes on Kuwait’s Al-Ahmadi oil refinery, one of the biggest in the Middle East, which was attacked on 5 April, causing fires in a “number of operational units”.

    If future operations at the refinery are limited by damage to the facility, it could potentially lead to much lower volumes of refined products being available both on the domestic market and for export.

    On 5 April, Iran also struck facilities operated by Petrochemical Industries Company (PIC) and Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC), both subsidiaries of state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC).

    On the same day, the building that houses the headquarters of KPC and the country’s Oil Ministry was also hit, causing a fire.

    In a statement released on 5 April, KPC said that assessments of the damage to the office building, as well as to the PIC and KNPC facilities, were ongoing.

    If the damage to the PIC and KNPC facilities is significant, it could further reduce Kuwait’s refining capacity and erode the country’s petrochemical production capacity.

    This, in turn, would negatively impact the oil and gas sector’s ability to generate future revenues.

    As the war continues, it is likely that damage to oil and gas infrastructure will continue to mount, further eroding the country’s ability to return quickly to normal operations.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16265361/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Kuwait reports war damage on oil infrastructure

    6 April 2026

    State-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) has said that some units have sustained significant damage following Iranian strikes on oil and gas infrastructure in recent days.

    Strikes hit facilities operated by its subsidiaries Petrochemical Industries Company (PIC) and Kuwait National Petroleum ​Company (KNPC).

    Strikes also hit the offices of KPC and the Oil Ministry, as well as power and water desalination plants.

    In a statement released on 5 April, KPC said: “On 5 April, 2026, the oil sector complex located in Shuwaikh, which houses the KPC building and the Ministry of Oil, was attacked by drones, resulting in a fire at the building and significant material damage.

    “Several operational facilities belonging to the corporation, both at KNPC [sites] and PIC [sites], were also subjected to similar drone attacks, leading to fires at a number of these facilities, and causing significant material damage.

    “Emergency and firefighting teams from the concerned companies, with the support of the General Fire Force, implemented the approved response plans.

    “The teams continue to work to control the fires and prevent their spread to adjacent facilities.

    “The corporation confirmed, thanks be to God, that no human casualties were recorded as a result of these attacks.”

    In a television address, Hisham Ahmed Al-Rifai, a spokesperson for the company, said that the offices of KPC and the Oil Ministry were targeted at dawn on 5 April.

    He called the attack “reprehensible” and said that Iran used drones to carry it out.

    Al-Rifai said that KPC is still assessing damage to the office building and to the PIC and KNPC facilities.

    The past few days have seen significant damage dealt to a range of oil and gas infrastructure.

    On 3 April, early-morning strikes hit Kuwait’s Al-Ahmadi oil refinery, causing fires in a “number of operational units”.

    The strikes on 3 April were the third time that the refinery had been hit since the regional conflict started.

    The refining facility is one of the largest in the Middle East and is an important source of refined products for both the domestic market and exports.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16265360/main.gif
    Wil Crisp
  • Safety and security matters

    3 April 2026

    Commentary
    Colin Foreman
    Editor

    Read the April issue of MEED Business Review

    Employment and investment opportunities in a low or no-tax environment have been key attractions for people and businesses located in the GCC for decades. Another crucial factor has been safety and security.

    That reputation has been tested by the missile and drone attacks that began on 28 February. Whether the GCC’s safe haven status has been damaged depends on perspective. 

    For some, the fact that attacks occurred fundamentally changes how the region is viewed. For others, the ability to absorb a serious shock, respond quickly, and keep daily life and businesses functioning demonstrates resilience.

    Any assessment of safety is also relative. Many people and businesses that relocate in the GCC do so not only for opportunity, but because of dissatisfaction elsewhere. Common reasons include limited economic prospects, high taxation, distrust in political leadership and concerns about personal safety. Even with the recent conflict, the GCC may still compare favourably for those considering these factors.

    There is no doubt that missile and drone attacks are extremely dangerous, and the fear of further incidents can linger. Even if attacks are infrequent, the uncertainty matters. It can influence personal decisions, travel advice, and the cost of insurance and risk management. These perceptions will shape the region’s attractiveness.

    Safety concerns vary. In many parts of the world, higher levels of crime are an everyday worry for residents and businesses. For some, the GCC may still feel like the better option, provided the current tensions do not become the new normal.

    How this question is answered will play an important role in how the region’s economies perform in the period ahead. If confidence returns quickly and the risk is seen as contained and manageable, investment and hiring will likely rebound faster than many expect. If uncertainty persists or escalates, the road to recovery will be a long one.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16250747/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Saudi forecast remains one of growth

    3 April 2026

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16250096/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • Dubai seeks consultants for Al-Khawaneej stormwater project

    3 April 2026

    Dubai Municipality has issued a consultancy tender to assess and upgrade the stormwater drainage system serving the Al-Khawaneej First residential district in northeastern Dubai.

    The project, listed as TF-22-E1, covers the upgrading and rehabilitation of the stormwater system in the area. The tender has been issued by the municipality’s Sewerage and Recycled Water Projects Department.

    The bid submission deadline is 23 April.

    The works form part of Dubai’s wider efforts to strengthen flood resilience and support sustainable urban infrastructure development.

    Two separate consultancy tenders were issued in March as part of a broader review of the emirate’s water and wastewater infrastructure to support future population growth.

    One involves a study to develop a sustainable urban drainage systems strategy across the emirate. The other covers a review of the emirate’s sewage treatment and recycled water distribution strategy. 

    The Al-Khawaneej First consultancy role will include data collection, site investigations and an assessment of existing drainage conditions.

    Additionally, the consultant will be required to identify flooding hotspots and evaluate the performance of the current system. 

    The project covers the preparation of preliminary and detailed designs, tender documents and construction packages as well as construction supervision through to project handover.

    The municipality added that integrated drainage solutions are to be developed as part of the package, including sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) and nature-based approaches to address current and future stormwater demand.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16249098/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall