meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

No end in sight for Lebanon’s economic woes

12 June 2023

This package on Lebanon also includes:

> Political deadlock in Lebanon blocks reforms
> Lebanon moves to secure $150m solar financing
> Dar al-Handasah acquires Turkish consultant
> Eni and Total complete Lebanon gas deal

 

Experts remain pessimistic about the outlook for Lebanon’s economy as the crisis continues to worsen more than three years after it began in 2019.

The country only has a caretaker government and no president – and it is hard to see how it will implement the reforms the IMF says are needed.

On 8 June, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said: “Lebanon needs urgent action to implement a comprehensive economic reform programme to arrest the severe and deepening crisis and to allow Lebanon’s economy to recover.”

She added that the IMF was concerned that delays in implementing key reforms were keeping the economy severely depressed.

“We are concerned about irreversible consequences for the economy, especially for the poor citizens of Lebanon and the middle class,” she said.

Lebanon’s currency has weakened dramatically since the start of the country’s economic crisis, plunging much of the population into poverty.

In March, the Lebanese pound, officially pegged at 15,000 to the dollar, was trading at 100,000 against the dollar on the country’s parallel market, down from 1,507 before the economic crisis hit in 2019.

In May, a World Bank report stated: “The systemic failure of Lebanon’s banking system and the collapse of the currency have resulted in a large, dollarised cash-based economy.

“It not only threatens to compromise the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy, but also heightens the risk of money laundering, increases informality and prompts further tax evasion.”

In April 2020, the Lebanese government agreed with IMF staff to implement a series of reforms to end the crisis, but very few have been executed.

This is mainly due to the country’s ongoing political deadlock.

Lebanon has had no head of state since President Michel Aoun’s term ended at the end of October 2022, worsening the country’s political paralysis at a time when important policy decisions are needed to get the economy back on track.

According to the IMF, the economic outlook for Lebanon is highly uncertain and depends on policy actions taken by the authorities to carry out the agreed reforms.

Kozack said: “Timely implementation of these reforms is critical to end the current crisis and prevent a further deterioration in living standards of the people of Lebanon.”

She added: “Lebanon will need strong financial support from the broader international community and the financial needs of Lebanon over the next several years are very large given the magnitude of the economic crisis.”

Bailout prospects

While the IMF has said that Lebanon will need significant financial support from other countries to help it get through its economic crisis, it is unclear where that support will come from.

Nicholas Blanford, a non-resident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programmes, says it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia will be willing to bail the country out financially as it has done in the past.

He said: “Saudi Arabia has pumped billions of dollars into Lebanon over the years, including helping with the reconstruction programme in the 1990s after the civil war. Saudi has also helped Lebanon financially through various economic slumps.”

The change of leadership in Saudi Arabia when King Salman came to the throne in 2015 led to a change in policy regarding financial bailouts for Lebanon, according to Blanford.

“It seems like Saudi feels that it got very little in return for its past investment in Lebanon due to the fact that Hezbollah remains a dominant force in the country politically and militarily.

“The Americans and the French have, for several years, been pressing the Saudis to show more interest in Lebanon as a pushback against Iranian influence, but, so far, they haven’t shown much interest.”

The Lebanese are keeping their fingers crossed that economically viable quantities of oil and gas are found, but there is also a huge amount of scepticism given the state of the political system here and the nature of the politicians
Nicholas Blanford, Atlantic Council’s Middle East programmes

In October last year, Lebanon and Israel agreed a deal to end a long-running maritime border dispute in the Mediterranean Sea, clearing the way for increased oil and gas exploration activity in Lebanese waters.

Following the deal, in May this year, it was announced that a consortium led by France’s TotalEnergies would start drilling for oil and gas off the country's coast at the beginning of September.

While it is possible that new hydrocarbon discoveries in Lebanese waters could help ease the country’s economic problems over the long term, it is doubtful that this would provide any benefit in the short term, according to Blanford.

“The Lebanese are keeping their fingers crossed that economically viable quantities of oil and gas are found, but there is also a huge amount of scepticism given the state of the political system here and the nature of the politicians themselves.”

Blanford believes that many Lebanese citizens are worried that if commercially viable quantities of hydrocarbons are found, they are ultimately only likely to benefit the country’s oligarchs rather than the general public.

Due to the wide range of severe political and economic problems that Lebanon faces, there is unlikely to be any improvement over the coming months unless common ground is found between the country’s rival political blocs.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10932005/main.gif
Wil Crisp

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Riyadh tenders Al-Zulfi passenger railway station

    22 October 2025

    Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) has tendered a design-and-build contract for the construction of a passenger railway station in the Zulfi governorate, located 260 kilometres northwest of Riyadh.

    The station in Al-Zulfi will serve SAR’s North Railway line.

    According to the tender notice published on SAR’s website, the scope includes the construction of the station building, firefighting facilities, track works, signalling and telecommunication systems, utilities, access roads, parking, landscaping and other associated works.

    SAR has set 4 December as the deadline for firms to submit their bids.

    The passenger section of the North Railway – formerly known as the North-South Railway – extends over 1,250 kilometres.

    The line originates in Riyadh and runs northwest to Al-Haditha, near the Jordanian border, passing through Majmaah, Qassim, Hail, Jouf and Qurayyat.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14921216/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Procurement begins for $372m Rixos Alkhobar resort

    22 October 2025

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s Tourism Development Fund and US-based investment firm FTG International Group have invited companies to prequalify for a contract to develop a mixed-use resort at Half Moon Beach in Alkhobar, in the kingdom’s Eastern Region.

    “The prequalification process is ongoing and the project is likely to be tendered in a few weeks,” sources close to the project told MEED.

    The estimated SR1.4bn ($372m) project will cover an area of approximately 262,000 square metres.

    It will comprise 400 hotel units and 41 residential villas.

    The resort will operate under the Rixos brand and be fully managed by French hospitality firm Accor.

    UK-based analytics firm GlobalData expects Saudi Arabia’s construction industry to grow by 4% in real terms in 2025, driven by investments in housing, energy and transport infrastructure.

    The commercial construction sector is projected to grow by 3.7% in real terms in 2025 and maintain an average annual growth rate of 3.7% from 2026 to 2029. This is supported by Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which aims to attract 150 million tourists annually and add 320,000 hotel rooms by 2030.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14920903/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi Arabia plans Mecca transit-oriented development

    22 October 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Railway Company (SAR) has signed an agreement with local investment firm Riyad Capital to establish a real estate fund to develop a mixed-use, transit-oriented project in Mecca.

    The project will span more than 90,000 square metres in the Al-Rusifah district, near the Haramain high-speed railway station in Mecca.

    The development is estimated to cost more than SR6bn ($1.6bn).

    Riyad Capital operates through four business lines: asset and wealth management, brokerage, corporate investment banking and securities services.

    In an official statement, the company said its real-estate portfolio spans three continents and is valued at more than $6bn.

    UK-based analytics firm GlobalData expects Saudi Arabia's construction industry to grow by 4% in real terms in 2025, supported by investments in the housing, energy and transport infrastructure sectors.

    The commercial sector is estimated to grow by 3.7% in real terms in 2025 and to register an average annual growth of 3.7% from 2026 to 2029, supported by the government’s Vision 2030 plan. Under that plan, the government aims to attract 150 million tourists annually and add 320,000 hotel rooms by 2030.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14920539/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Petrojet consortium wins $1.1bn oil contract in Algeria

    22 October 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    A consortium of Egypt’s Petrojet and Italy’s Arkad has been awarded a $1.087bn contract for the second phase of the Hassi Bir Rekaiz oil field development project in Algeria.

    The consortium is led by Petrojet and the client is Groupement HBR, a joint venture of Algeria’s national oil and gas company Sonatrach and Thailand’s PTTEP.

    The scope of work includes the construction of a central processing facility with a capacity of 31,500 barrels a day (b/d), along with associated facilities and pipeline networks extending over 217 kilometres.

    It also includes the construction of a power distribution station and storage tanks.

    In a statement, Petrojet said: “This award represents a significant step forward in strengthening Petrojet’s presence in the Algerian market and reaffirms its position as a leading regional [engineering, procurement and construction] EPC contractor delivering integrated, world-class energy projects.”

    Groupement HBR, which operates the Hassi Bir Rekaiz oil and gas concession, tendered the design contract for the second phase of the field development project in August 2023.

    HBR started production from phase one of the project in June 2022.

    China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation executed EPC work on the first phase of the field development project. The contract was signed in 2020, with a value of $116m.

    The production target for phase one was 13,000 b/d of oil.

    The project site, in the eastern part of Algeria, contains blocks 443a, 424a, 414ext and 415ext.

    PTTEP and its partners found oil and gas in 10 out of 11 exploration wells drilled in the 1,916-square-kilometre area between 2013 and 2016.

    Algeria oil and gas sector

    Project activity in Algeria’s energy, industrial and manufacturing sectors is steadily building as the country focuses on a vertically integrated strategy that leverages the exploitation of its natural resources.

    In July, Sonatrach and Italian energy company Eni signed a production-sharing hydrocarbons contract estimated to be worth $1.35bn.

    The contract covers the exploration and exploitation of the Zemoul El-Kebir concession area, located in the Berkine Basin, approximately 300km east of Hassi Messaoud.

    The deal with Eni is the latest of several high-profile agreements that Sonatrach has announced with international oil and gas companies.

    In June, Algeria awarded five out of the six oil and gas exploration licences it offered during its 2024 bidding round, a move viewed as a success by stakeholders in the country’s energy sector.

    The companies that were awarded blocks included France’s TotalEnergies, state-owned QatarEnergy, Eni and PTTEP.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14920390/main3739.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Contractors prepare Riyadh Expo infrastructure bids

    21 October 2025

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Fourteen firms have been invited to bid for the contract to undertake the initial infrastructure works at the Expo 2030 Riyadh site.

    Saudi Arabia’s Expo 2030 Riyadh Company (ERC), tasked with delivering the Expo 2030 Riyadh venue, floated the tender for the project’s initial infrastructure works in September, as MEED reported.

    The firms invited to bid include:

    • Shibh Al-Jazira Contracting (local)
    • Hassan Allam Construction (Egypt)
    • El-Seif Engineering Contracting (local)
    • Al-Ayuni Investment & Contracting (local)
    • Kolin Construction (Turkiye)
    • Al-Yamama Trading & Contracting Company (local)
    • Saudi Pan Kingdom (local)
    • Unimac (local)
    • Mapa Insaat (Turkiye)
    • Yuksel Insaat (Turkiye)
    • IC Ictas / Al-Rashid Trading & Contracting (Turkiye/local)
    • Mota-Engil / Albawani (Portugal/local)
    • Almabani / FCC Construction (local/Spain)

    The overall infrastructure works – covering the construction of main utilities and civil works at Expo 2030 Riyadh – will be split into three packages:

    • Lot 1 covers the main utilities corridor
    • Lot 2 includes the northern cluster of the nature corridor
    • Lot 3 comprises the southern cluster of the nature corridor

    ERC issued the tender for infrastructure package Lot 1 on 21 September and has set deadlines of 26 October and 9 November for submission of technical and commercial bids, respectively.

    ERC is expected to award the contract for the Riyadh Expo infrastructure package in December.

    MEED previously reported that ERC was expected to issue the tender for some of the infrastructure packages in September.

    In July, US-based engineering firm Bechtel Corporation announced it had won the project management consultancy deal for the delivery of the Expo 2030 Riyadh masterplan construction works.

    The masterplan encompasses an area of 6 square kilometres, making it one of the largest sites designated for a World Expo event. Situated to the north of the Saudi capital, the site will be located near the future King Salman International airport, providing direct access to various landmarks within Riyadh.

    Countries participating in Expo 2030 Riyadh will have the option to construct permanent pavilions. This initiative is expected to create opportunities for business and investment growth in the region.

    The expo is forecast to attract more than 40 million visitors.

    The Public Investment Fund (PIF), Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth vehicle, launched ERC in June as a wholly owned subsidiary to build and operate facilities for Expo 2030.

    In a statement, the PIF said: “During its construction phases, Expo 2030 Riyadh and its legacy are projected to contribute around $64bn to Saudi GDP and generate approximately 171,000 direct and indirect jobs. Once operational, it is expected to contribute approximately $5.6bn to GDP.”

    READ THE OCTOBER 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Private sector takes on expanded role; Riyadh shifts towards strategic expenditure; MEED’s 2025 power developer ranking

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > AGENDA 1: A new dawn for PPPs
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14912102/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal