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Muscat performs tricky budget balancing act

12 December 2023

 

On 11 November, Oman’s Etco Space sent its first nano-satellite, Aman-1, into orbit aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launched from California. It is the sort of endeavour Muscat is keen to promote as it tries to diversify its economy.

Etco Space chief executive Abdulaziz Jaafar said his company will be “pushing the boundaries of our space programme in the coming months and years”. It aims to launch more satellites and get involved in deep-space missions. 

Oman’s economy needs to find new areas to exploit. GDP growth slowed from 4.3 per cent in 2022 to 1.3 per cent in 2023, according to the Washington-based IMF. The organisation expects the growth rate to revive to 2.7 per cent in 2024, but that is at least partly dependent on a rebound in hydrocarbons production.

This may not come to pass. Oman is part of the wider Opec+ arrangement to curb production and at the group’s meeting on 30 November, Oman agreed to cut 42,000 barrels a day (b/d) from its output during the first quarter of 2024. Opec said the cuts will be gradually unwound later in the year “subject to market conditions”.

Soft oil prices

It is not just about output, however. Oil prices have also been weaker in 2023. The Finance Ministry says Oman received $81 a barrel on average in the first nine months of 2023, compared to $94 in the same period last year. 

Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics, said the Opec+ cuts “should at least act as a floor under prices at current levels, but we would be surprised if it prompted a sustained price rally”.

As it stands, Oman’s net oil revenues were RO4.8bn ($12.5bn) in the first nine months of 2023, 10 per cent lower than a year ago. 

Gas revenues have fallen even more significantly – by 42 per cent to RO1.6bn – prompting an overall drop in public revenues of 16 per cent, or RO1.7bn.

Wider market dynamics mean the pressure is likely to continue into 2024. Bhushan Bahree, executive director at S&P Global Commodity Insights, says that crude prices are “under pressure from a looming oil over-supply early next year”, amid strong oil production growth in the Americas.

The economic pressures follow a period of fairly benign conditions. High oil revenues in recent years have enabled Omani authorities to post fiscal and current account surpluses and pay off some sovereign debt. 

Such trends have prompted the main credit ratings agencies to issue upgrades. In May 2023, Moody’s Investors Service promoted Oman from Ba3 to Ba2, while both Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings upgraded the sovereign from BB to BB+ in September.

Debt and spending

Government debt rose from just 5 per cent of GDP in 2014 to a peak of 68 per cent in 2020, but since then there has been a concerted effort to reverse that trend. By 2022, it had dropped to 40 per cent of GDP and Fitch predicts it will stabilise at about 35 per cent in 2024-25. 

Overall public debt is now at about RO16.3bn, levels last seen in 2018-19.

Despite the lower oil and gas revenues, the government has kept its spending discipline, with expenditure down 14 per cent in the first nine months of the year. This has meant the budget remains in surplus, albeit at lower levels than in 2022. Figures from the Finance Ministry show a surplus of RO791m for the first nine month of 2023, down from RO1.1bn in the same period a year earlier.

In the longer-term, Oman is pinning much of its hopes on hydrogen production. Hydrogen Oman (Hydrom) signed five deals for projects in Duqm in mid-2023, involving total potential investment of $30bn. It is hoping a second round of deals, covering blocks of land in the Dhofar region, could attract a further $20bn-$30bn, with awards due in early 2024.

Hydrom managing director Abdulaziz al-Shidhani has said total investments in the sector could reach $140bn by 2050, by which time the country is hoping to produce 8 million tonnes a year (t/y) of green hydrogen. There is an interim target of 1 million t/y by 2030.

Even if these investment and production targets are achieved, oil and gas will remain central elements of the Omani economy for some time. In a sign of the sector’s continuing importance, the $7bn OQ8 refinery project in Duqm is due to be completed by the end of 2023, with partners OQ and Kuwait Petroleum International aiming to process about 230,000 b/d of oil once it is up and running. 

Compared to the undulations in oil and gas and the wider economy, Oman’s political scene is far more stable. Since taking over in 2020, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said has pushed economic reforms but made few changes on the political side, other than gradually adjusting some of the key personnel. In late October, he appointed new governors to take over in South Al-Batinah, North Al-Sharqiyah and Al-Wusta.

There have also been public protests in Muscat over the Gaza war, but they have been more limited than some other demonstrations in recent years, such as the protests against high unemployment and inflation seen in 2018 and 2019 in cities around the country. 

As long as the government can keep the economy relatively stable, it should also be able to maintain the political equilibrium.

MEED's January 2024 special report on Oman also includes:

> BANKING: Omani banks look to projects for growth
> POWER & WATER: Oman expands grid connectivity

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Dominic Dudley

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    Many lessons were learnt during the process that can benefit future power plant decommissioning efforts in the region.

    > Notify key stakeholders early: Key stakeholders are those that have a vested interest in the project, either through ownership of certain assets on site, such as grid connection assets, or via regulation, such as the environmental authority. Many of these stakeholders take time to respond, so notifying key stakeholders early in the process can ensure that unnecessary delays are avoided.

    > Prioritise HSSE: For any future decommissioning project, HSSE must be a top priority, and this should be the focus throughout the entire decommissioning process – at all levels of work and management. 

    The site manager at Al-Kamil installed a 24/7 closed-circuit television camera, which proved to be extremely effective in terms of monitoring progress and identifying potential HSSE issues before they became an incident. This simple and cost-effective practice should be replicated for all future decommissioning projects.

    > Appoint the environmental consultant early in the process: It is advisable to appoint an environmental consultant early in the process. The consultant is needed to coordinate activities with the local environmental authority and obtain a no-objection letter or certificate, complete an environmental management report and an update of the environmental impact assessment, which includes an environmental baseline.

    Ideally, these reports and environmental authority approvals should be completed well before any work is under way at the site. This information is also useful to potential bidders for the sale of equipment, or to contractors involved in the dismantling and demolition process.

    > Submit an environmental management plan for approval: It is unlikely that any environmental authority will provide a no-objection letter or certificate without reviewing the environmental plan. It is therefore necessary to complete the plan early, prior to informing the environmental authority. This can minimise potential delays in starting the decommissioning process. 

    As a general practice, an environmental consultant should be brought on board early in the process, ideally once the overall master plan is approved by the company.

    > Establish a proactive steering committee: This was done at Al-Kamil and proved to be effective when it came to overseeing project progress and dealing with issues as they arose. Certain members of the steering committee visited the site regularly and undertook spot HSSE inspections.

    At Al-Kamil, the overall decommissioning was relatively straightforward as the plant was in a remote area. However, decommissioning a power plant in a busier location, or when part of the power plant remains in operation, is more challenging. Under these circumstances, a steering committee is vital. 

    > Set realistic delivery and completion timelines: Decommissioning a power plant is a complex process. The initial timeline to complete the process for Al-Kamil was one year, which was the best estimate at the time as there were no benchmarks or references in Oman. However, the actual completion time turned out to be three years – longer than the approximately 2.5 years it took to build the plant, from the start of construction in early 2001 to full commercial operation in July 2003.

    Realistic delivery dates should be set for contractors, suppliers and others involved in the decommissioning process. This is likely to result in better pricing, as bidders tend to factor in higher contingencies with shorter or fast-track delivery dates. More realistic delivery dates also help management to allocate staff resources and manage the decommissioning budget. 

    Finally, realistic delivery dates help to manage owner and shareholder expectations regarding project completion.

    Given the experience with Al-Kamil, a reasonable decommissioning timeline for a power plant is probably close to the actual construction timeline for the plant involved.

    > Allow time to maximise revenues from the sale of assets: The market value for Al-Kamil’s power assets was estimated at a value significantly higher than the prevailing scrap value. This was based in part on the value of similar gas turbine units, after adjusting for age, usage and other factors that affect the net market value. However, the company realised a much lower value, even after retendering the equipment sales in an effort to get a better price.

    It appears that prices close to the market rate are only achievable if there is time to find a suitable buyer. This can take many months or even years – typically a longer time than the owners of power plants wish to take. 

    Moreover, as renewables continue to penetrate the market, there is less worldwide demand for used gas turbine units. Prevailing market supply and demand conditions also have a bearing on the sale price for secondary equipment, and this factor needs to be considered.

    If time is of the essence, then power plant owners need to accept the fact that the expected revenues will likely be on the low side, although still higher than the scrap value of the assets. 

    Main image: Picture 1: Al-Kamil power plant as constructed; Picture 2: Post decommissioning 

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