meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Muscat performs tricky budget balancing act

12 December 2023

 

On 11 November, Oman’s Etco Space sent its first nano-satellite, Aman-1, into orbit aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launched from California. It is the sort of endeavour Muscat is keen to promote as it tries to diversify its economy.

Etco Space chief executive Abdulaziz Jaafar said his company will be “pushing the boundaries of our space programme in the coming months and years”. It aims to launch more satellites and get involved in deep-space missions. 

Oman’s economy needs to find new areas to exploit. GDP growth slowed from 4.3 per cent in 2022 to 1.3 per cent in 2023, according to the Washington-based IMF. The organisation expects the growth rate to revive to 2.7 per cent in 2024, but that is at least partly dependent on a rebound in hydrocarbons production.

This may not come to pass. Oman is part of the wider Opec+ arrangement to curb production and at the group’s meeting on 30 November, Oman agreed to cut 42,000 barrels a day (b/d) from its output during the first quarter of 2024. Opec said the cuts will be gradually unwound later in the year “subject to market conditions”.

Soft oil prices

It is not just about output, however. Oil prices have also been weaker in 2023. The Finance Ministry says Oman received $81 a barrel on average in the first nine months of 2023, compared to $94 in the same period last year. 

Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics, said the Opec+ cuts “should at least act as a floor under prices at current levels, but we would be surprised if it prompted a sustained price rally”.

As it stands, Oman’s net oil revenues were RO4.8bn ($12.5bn) in the first nine months of 2023, 10 per cent lower than a year ago. 

Gas revenues have fallen even more significantly – by 42 per cent to RO1.6bn – prompting an overall drop in public revenues of 16 per cent, or RO1.7bn.

Wider market dynamics mean the pressure is likely to continue into 2024. Bhushan Bahree, executive director at S&P Global Commodity Insights, says that crude prices are “under pressure from a looming oil over-supply early next year”, amid strong oil production growth in the Americas.

The economic pressures follow a period of fairly benign conditions. High oil revenues in recent years have enabled Omani authorities to post fiscal and current account surpluses and pay off some sovereign debt. 

Such trends have prompted the main credit ratings agencies to issue upgrades. In May 2023, Moody’s Investors Service promoted Oman from Ba3 to Ba2, while both Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings upgraded the sovereign from BB to BB+ in September.

Debt and spending

Government debt rose from just 5 per cent of GDP in 2014 to a peak of 68 per cent in 2020, but since then there has been a concerted effort to reverse that trend. By 2022, it had dropped to 40 per cent of GDP and Fitch predicts it will stabilise at about 35 per cent in 2024-25. 

Overall public debt is now at about RO16.3bn, levels last seen in 2018-19.

Despite the lower oil and gas revenues, the government has kept its spending discipline, with expenditure down 14 per cent in the first nine months of the year. This has meant the budget remains in surplus, albeit at lower levels than in 2022. Figures from the Finance Ministry show a surplus of RO791m for the first nine month of 2023, down from RO1.1bn in the same period a year earlier.

In the longer-term, Oman is pinning much of its hopes on hydrogen production. Hydrogen Oman (Hydrom) signed five deals for projects in Duqm in mid-2023, involving total potential investment of $30bn. It is hoping a second round of deals, covering blocks of land in the Dhofar region, could attract a further $20bn-$30bn, with awards due in early 2024.

Hydrom managing director Abdulaziz al-Shidhani has said total investments in the sector could reach $140bn by 2050, by which time the country is hoping to produce 8 million tonnes a year (t/y) of green hydrogen. There is an interim target of 1 million t/y by 2030.

Even if these investment and production targets are achieved, oil and gas will remain central elements of the Omani economy for some time. In a sign of the sector’s continuing importance, the $7bn OQ8 refinery project in Duqm is due to be completed by the end of 2023, with partners OQ and Kuwait Petroleum International aiming to process about 230,000 b/d of oil once it is up and running. 

Compared to the undulations in oil and gas and the wider economy, Oman’s political scene is far more stable. Since taking over in 2020, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said has pushed economic reforms but made few changes on the political side, other than gradually adjusting some of the key personnel. In late October, he appointed new governors to take over in South Al-Batinah, North Al-Sharqiyah and Al-Wusta.

There have also been public protests in Muscat over the Gaza war, but they have been more limited than some other demonstrations in recent years, such as the protests against high unemployment and inflation seen in 2018 and 2019 in cities around the country. 

As long as the government can keep the economy relatively stable, it should also be able to maintain the political equilibrium.

MEED's January 2024 special report on Oman also includes:

> BANKING: Omani banks look to projects for growth
> POWER & WATER: Oman expands grid connectivity

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11364460/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Saudi Arabia picks Ras Mohaisen preferred bidder

    18 October 2024

    A team comprising the local firms Acwa Power, Haji Abdullah Alireza & Partners Company and AlKifah Holding has emerged as the preferred bidder for a contract to develop the Ras Mohaisen independent water project (IWP) in Saudi Arabia.

    The state water offtaker received two bids for the contract in April this year.

    The only other company that submitted a proposal for the contract, Spain’s Acciona,  is the reserved bidder, according to Saudi Water Partnership Company (SWPC).

    The Ras Mohaisen IWP will have the capacity to treat 300,000 cubic metres of seawater a day (cm/d) using reverse osmosis technology.

    It will also include storage tanks with a capacity of 600,000 cubic metres, equivalent to two operating days, and an electrical substation.

    The project is expected to reach commercial operation by the second quarter of 2028.

    It is initially expected that the SWRO plant will reach commercial operation by the third quarter of 2026.

    Ras Mohaisen is about 300 kilometres south of Mecca, on the Red Sea coast in Saudi Arabia’s Western Region.

    SWPC has appointed Netherlands-headquartered KPMG as the financial adviser, with UK-based Eversheds Sutherland acting as the legal adviser for the project.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12753083/main.gif
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Chinese and Saudi partners set up Hithium Manat

    17 October 2024

    Register for MEED's 14-day trial access 

    Chinese energy storage solutions firm Hithium Energy Storage Technology Company (Hithium) and the local Nabilah AlTunisi have formed a joint venture that will manufacture battery energy storage systems (bess) in Saudi Arabia.

    The joint venture is called Hithium Manat. The planned manufacturing facility has an annual production capacity target of 5 gigawatt-hours (GWh), according to an official statement.

    Hithium launched energy storage solutions designed for the region's harsh environment during a solar and storage conference held in Riyadh.

    According to Hithium, "These systems feature advanced sandstorm protection and robust high and low-temperature designs, supporting ultra-long discharge cycles of 12+ hours."

    It added that the new product line is "customised to meet the unique demands of the Middle East and Africa region".

    Nabilah AlTunisi is the founder and owner of Hithium Manat's local partner.

    "This strategic alliance will not only provide access to world-class energy storage technology but also generate local employment opportunities, stimulate technological innovation and actively contribute to realising the kingdom's Vision 2030 objectives," AlTunisi said.

    Battery energy storage market

    In August, National Grid Saudi Arabia, a subsidiary of state utility Saudi Electricity Company, awarded the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts for three energy storage systems to Riyadh-based investment group Algihaz Holding. The estimated $800m projects are located in Najran, Madaya and Khamis Mushait.

    National Grid also recently tendered contracts for the construction of five battery energy storage systems with a total combined capacity of 2,500MW across the kingdom.

    The planned facilities, each with a capacity of 500MW or roughly 2,000 megawatt-hours, are located in or within proximity of the following key cities and load centres:

    • Riyadh
    • Qaisumah
    • Dawadmi
    • Al-Jouf
    • Rabigh

    Every utility in the region is procuring or planning to procure bess capacity in light of growing intermittent renewable power in their grids. 

    The overall capacity of deployed bess globally is expected to reach 127GW by 2027, up from an estimated cumulative deployment of 36.7GW at the end of 2023, a GlobalData report issued in June said.

    The report cited Chinese companies BYD and CATL and South Korean companies LG Energy Solutions and Samsung SDI among the top battery technology providers globally.

    Related read: Battery storage gains foothold

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12742375/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Kahramaa invites Ras Laffan substation bids

    17 October 2024

    Qatar state utility General Electricity & Water Corporation (Kahramaa) has tendered a contract to upgrade the Ras Laffan C substation.

    The scope of work covers the upgrade of existing 220-kilovolt (kV) and 400kV substations and the addition of 220kV gas-insulated switchgear bays and an 800-megavolt amps transformer.

    Kahramaa issued the tender on 15 October and expects to receive bids by 28 November.

    The project bid bond is valued at QR1.5m ($410,000).

    Separately, Kahramaa invited firms to submit their proposals for a contract to supply and install power transmission and distribution equipment, including providing and connecting substation main earth and equipment earthing, commissioning fitted substations and pre-commissioning protection testing for 11kV switchgear panels.

    Kahramaa expects to receive bids for this contract, with a bid bond of QR3m, by 14 November.

    Kahramaa is expanding its power generation capacity. Negotiations are under way with the sole bidder led by Japan's Sumitomo Corporation for a contract to develop and operate Qatar’s Facility E independent water and power producer (IWPP) project.

    The Facility E IWPP scheme will have a power generation capacity of 2,300MW and a water desalination capacity of 100 million imperial gallons a day.

    Earlier this month, Qatar Electricity & Water Company announced plans to develop a 500MW peak power unit in Qatar's Ras Abu Fontas area.

    Construction is also under way for two solar farms with a total combined capacity of 875MW in Mesaieed and Ras Laffan.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12742343/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Neom starts Tabuk highway prequalifications

    17 October 2024

     

    Saudi Arabian gigaproject developer Neom expects firms to submit their prequalification applications for a project to build a mountain road near Tabuk later this month.

    The 11.5-kilometre (km) Tabuk mountain road project comprises a 4km tunnel and 7.5km dualisation of an existing road, according to an industry source.

    Neom expects to receive statements of qualifications from interested engineering, procurement and construction contractors by 29 October.

    The tender proceedings for Neom's transport infrastructure projects are gathering momentum.

    Neom received expressions of interest for a contract to build a coastal highway and infrastructure project catering to the Magna development on the Gulf of Aqaba on 15 October.

    The project, called Magna Infrastructure Packages, is split into three. Package one is 13km, package two is 42km and package three is 41km. The packages cater to the development’s north, central and south areas.

    The design-and-build project covers utilities for water, power, mobility, sewer, buildings and highways, in addition to the coastal highway. The project is expected to be completed by 2027.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12738632/main.gif
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Adnoc completes Fertiglobe stake acquisition

    16 October 2024

    Register for MEED's 14-day trial access 

    Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has completed the transaction to acquire a majority stake in UAE-headquartered Fertiglobe, the largest nitrogen-based fertiliser producer in the Middle East and North Africa region.

    Adnoc has increased its shareholding in Fertiglobe to 86.2% through the acquisition of 50% + 1 share held by Netherlands-based OCI Global, which is backed by Egyptian billionaire Nassef Sawiris. The Abu Dhabi energy giant previously held a 36.2% stake in Fertiglobe.

    The remaining 13.8% of Fertiglobe’s shares trade on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange following the company's stock listing in October 2022.

    Adnoc announced the transaction to become the majority shareholder in Fertiglobe last December. Fertiglobe’s shares were priced at AED3.2 ($0.87) a share, valuing the deal at $3.62bn.

    Following the completion of the majority acquisition, “Fertiglobe’s current management team will stay in place”, including Ahmed El-Hoshy in his role as CEO, Adnoc said in a statement on 15 October.

    “Ahmed El-Hoshy spent 15 years growing OCI’s US and European business in ammonia and methanol via greenfields, brownfields and acquisitions, generating significant value for shareholders by leading recent divestments,” Adnoc said.

    Growing chemicals business

    Fertiglobe is the world’s largest seaborne exporter of urea and ammonia combined, exporting to 53 countries with a collective market share of about 10% of global trade in these products.

    “The acquisition represents … the expansion of Adnoc’s low-carbon fuels business, and supports its goal to become a top-five global chemicals player,” Adnoc said.

    “Fertiglobe will become the platform for Adnoc’s growth in fertiliser and low-carbon ammonia,” Adnoc said in its statement.

    Adnoc added it will transfer its stakes in existing and future low-carbon ammonia projects to Fertiglobe “at cost and when ready for startup”, including its two projects in Abu Dhabi and other projects in its global portfolio. Adnoc has yet to specify the low-carbon ammonia and blue ammonia production projects.

    MEED understands that the first Abu Dhabi project in question is the blue ammonia facility in the Taziz Industrial Chemicals Zone in Ruwais. Fertiglobe has partnered with South Korea’s GS Energy Corporation and Japanese investment firm Mitsui & Company to build the complex, which will have a production capacity of 1 million tonnes a year (t/y).

    In February last year, the joint venture awarded Italian firm Tecnimont the main contract for executing the engineering, procurement and construction works on the Taziz blue ammonia project.

    The second Abu Dhabi blue ammonia project that Adnoc could be referring to in its statement is a proposed scheme for which it signed a joint feasibility study agreement with British energy producer BP in May 2022.

    Adnoc further said that the two projects in Abu Dhabi will add 2 million t/y of output potential, more than doubling Fertiglobe’s current commercial ammonia capacity of 1.6 million t/y and increasing its total sellable capacity to 8.6 million t/y of net ammonia and urea combined, in addition to other announced global projects.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12735570/main1542.jpg
    Indrajit Sen