meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Muscat performs tricky budget balancing act

12 December 2023

 

On 11 November, Oman’s Etco Space sent its first nano-satellite, Aman-1, into orbit aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launched from California. It is the sort of endeavour Muscat is keen to promote as it tries to diversify its economy.

Etco Space chief executive Abdulaziz Jaafar said his company will be “pushing the boundaries of our space programme in the coming months and years”. It aims to launch more satellites and get involved in deep-space missions. 

Oman’s economy needs to find new areas to exploit. GDP growth slowed from 4.3 per cent in 2022 to 1.3 per cent in 2023, according to the Washington-based IMF. The organisation expects the growth rate to revive to 2.7 per cent in 2024, but that is at least partly dependent on a rebound in hydrocarbons production.

This may not come to pass. Oman is part of the wider Opec+ arrangement to curb production and at the group’s meeting on 30 November, Oman agreed to cut 42,000 barrels a day (b/d) from its output during the first quarter of 2024. Opec said the cuts will be gradually unwound later in the year “subject to market conditions”.

Soft oil prices

It is not just about output, however. Oil prices have also been weaker in 2023. The Finance Ministry says Oman received $81 a barrel on average in the first nine months of 2023, compared to $94 in the same period last year. 

Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics, said the Opec+ cuts “should at least act as a floor under prices at current levels, but we would be surprised if it prompted a sustained price rally”.

As it stands, Oman’s net oil revenues were RO4.8bn ($12.5bn) in the first nine months of 2023, 10 per cent lower than a year ago. 

Gas revenues have fallen even more significantly – by 42 per cent to RO1.6bn – prompting an overall drop in public revenues of 16 per cent, or RO1.7bn.

Wider market dynamics mean the pressure is likely to continue into 2024. Bhushan Bahree, executive director at S&P Global Commodity Insights, says that crude prices are “under pressure from a looming oil over-supply early next year”, amid strong oil production growth in the Americas.

The economic pressures follow a period of fairly benign conditions. High oil revenues in recent years have enabled Omani authorities to post fiscal and current account surpluses and pay off some sovereign debt. 

Such trends have prompted the main credit ratings agencies to issue upgrades. In May 2023, Moody’s Investors Service promoted Oman from Ba3 to Ba2, while both Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings upgraded the sovereign from BB to BB+ in September.

Debt and spending

Government debt rose from just 5 per cent of GDP in 2014 to a peak of 68 per cent in 2020, but since then there has been a concerted effort to reverse that trend. By 2022, it had dropped to 40 per cent of GDP and Fitch predicts it will stabilise at about 35 per cent in 2024-25. 

Overall public debt is now at about RO16.3bn, levels last seen in 2018-19.

Despite the lower oil and gas revenues, the government has kept its spending discipline, with expenditure down 14 per cent in the first nine months of the year. This has meant the budget remains in surplus, albeit at lower levels than in 2022. Figures from the Finance Ministry show a surplus of RO791m for the first nine month of 2023, down from RO1.1bn in the same period a year earlier.

In the longer-term, Oman is pinning much of its hopes on hydrogen production. Hydrogen Oman (Hydrom) signed five deals for projects in Duqm in mid-2023, involving total potential investment of $30bn. It is hoping a second round of deals, covering blocks of land in the Dhofar region, could attract a further $20bn-$30bn, with awards due in early 2024.

Hydrom managing director Abdulaziz al-Shidhani has said total investments in the sector could reach $140bn by 2050, by which time the country is hoping to produce 8 million tonnes a year (t/y) of green hydrogen. There is an interim target of 1 million t/y by 2030.

Even if these investment and production targets are achieved, oil and gas will remain central elements of the Omani economy for some time. In a sign of the sector’s continuing importance, the $7bn OQ8 refinery project in Duqm is due to be completed by the end of 2023, with partners OQ and Kuwait Petroleum International aiming to process about 230,000 b/d of oil once it is up and running. 

Compared to the undulations in oil and gas and the wider economy, Oman’s political scene is far more stable. Since taking over in 2020, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said has pushed economic reforms but made few changes on the political side, other than gradually adjusting some of the key personnel. In late October, he appointed new governors to take over in South Al-Batinah, North Al-Sharqiyah and Al-Wusta.

There have also been public protests in Muscat over the Gaza war, but they have been more limited than some other demonstrations in recent years, such as the protests against high unemployment and inflation seen in 2018 and 2019 in cities around the country. 

As long as the government can keep the economy relatively stable, it should also be able to maintain the political equilibrium.

MEED's January 2024 special report on Oman also includes:

> BANKING: Omani banks look to projects for growth
> POWER & WATER: Oman expands grid connectivity

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11364460/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • French contractor begins work on Morocco’s Noor Atlas project

    24 March 2026

     

    France-headquartered Eiffage is carrying out construction works on phase one of Morocco’s 305MW Noor Atlas solar photovoltaic (PV) programme, according to sources close to the project.

    Morocco’s National Office of Electricity & Drinking Water (Onee) and the Moroccan Agency for Sustainable Energy (Masen) recently signed power purchase agreements (PPAs) for the programme covering the development, financing, construction, and operation of six solar PV power plants.

    The plants were tendered in two lots in 2022, covering the eastern and southern parts of the country.

    The first lot comprises the following four projects:

    • Ain Beni Mathar: 121MW
    • Enjil: 42MW
    • Boudnib: 33MW
    • Buonane: 29MW

    The second lot comprises two solar PV projects in Tan-Tan and Tata, with each having a planned capacity of 40MW.

    Eiffage, through its subsidiary Clemessy Maroc, previously carried out electrical works on Morocco’s Noor Tafilalt solar programme.

    However, it is understood that the contract for lot one is the company’s first role as full engineering, procurement and construction contractor for a solar project in the region.

    Local media reports previously said plants under the programme will be developed by consortiums comprising Moroccan and European companies.

    Contractor details for phase two of the project have not been disclosed. However, it is understood that construction work has begun, with the project scheduled to begin delivering electricity by July 2027.

    In 2025, Masen established a dedicated subsidiary (Noor Atlas Energy Company) to oversee the project’s implementation.

    Germany’s development bank KfW and the European Investment Bank (EIB) are providing concessional financing, while Bank of Africa is providing commercial financing (local) for the project.

    US/India-based Synergy Consulting is acting as consultant on the project.

    In May 2025, Onee obtained EIB financing of €170m and KfW financing of €130m to expand the national grid by 731  kilometres and increase its evacuation capacity by 1,850 MVA.

    EIB previously announced in 2018 that it is providing concessional financing of €129m under the ELM guarantee for Noor Atlas, against a total project cost of €272m.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16100781/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Oman issues more Sultan Haitham City construction tenders

    24 March 2026

    Oman’s Ministry of Housing & Urban Planning (MHUP) has released new construction packages covering road and public realm infrastructure for the first phase of the Sultan Haitham City project, located to the west of Muscat.

    The latest package to be tendered is the construction of transport network connectivity and utilities from Sultan Qaboos Road.

    The tender was floated on 13 March. The deadline for bid submission is 28 April.

    The scope covers the road connections linking Sultan Haitham City to Sultan Qaboos Road, as well as the associated civil and utilities scope.

    This includes bridges and grade-separated structures, utility buildings, stormwater and drainage assets, and medium- and low-voltage electrical installations. 

    Separately, MHUP has also tendered the delivery of a major green space within the development. The tender for the construction of a park and associated utilities was floated on 21 January, with a bid submission deadline of 3 May.

    The scope covers construction of the primary park spanning around 45 hectares, including related structures, landscaping and wet and dry utilities, as well as tie-ins to the project’s main services networks.

    The other package, also issued in January, covers landscaping works to the public realm of primary roads surrounding Neighbourhood 10. The bid submission deadline is 6 April.

    Earlier this month, Oman signed 17 international investment and development agreements worth over RO762m ($1.98bn) at the Mipim 2026 event held in Cannes, France.

    The deals were concluded through MHUP and partners at the Oman pavilion, and span mixed-use real estate, healthcare, agri-investment and digital planning tools.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16099787/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Sultan Al-Jaber calls Strait of Hormuz blockade “economic terrorism”

    24 March 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The weaponisation of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is an act of “economic terrorism”, with its global impact far beyond energy markets, Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber, the UAE’s Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, and managing director and group CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), has said at an energy industry conference in the US.

    Speaking at CERAWeek, taking place in Houston, Texas, Al-Jaber said that when the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, the human cost is exponential, and the consequences reach factories, farms and families around the world.

    Al-Jaber, who is also chairman of Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar), said “energy security is not just a slogan, it’s the difference between lights on and lights off”. He stressed that the world’s critical arteries must remain open and the Strait of Hormuz is one of those arteries.

    “Twenty-one miles wide. Twenty million barrels a day. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas. Over a third of the world’s fertiliser. Almost a quarter of the world’s petrochemicals and significant amounts of industrial metals. In short, much of the oxygen of the global economy runs through a single throat. Yet, Iran believes that choking it is an acceptable strategy.

    “When Hormuz is squeezed, the pressure is immediately felt around the world. In just three weeks, the price of oil has risen by 50%. This is raising the cost of living for those who can least afford it and slowing economic growth everywhere. From factories, to farms, to families around the world, the human cost is mounting by the day,” Al-Jaber, who also serves as the executive chairman of Adnoc’s overseas investment vehicle XRG, remarked.

    “So let me be absolutely clear. Weaponising the Strait of Hormuz is not an act of aggression against one nation. It is economic terrorism against every nation. And no country should be allowed to hold Hormuz hostage, not now, not ever. And while we appreciate all efforts to stabilise markets and reduce prices, this is not a supply issue. It is a security issue, and it has only one durable answer: keeping the Strait open. We cannot trade our way out of this crisis,” he stressed.

    Al-Jaber stressed the UAE did not ask for conflict and had taken every possible step to prevent it. “But when the moment came, we were ready. Our defences have been tested. Our resilience has been tested. Our character has been tested. And we withstood.

    ALSO READ: Adnoc Gas says operations continuing despite security incidents

    “At Adnoc, we took hits no civilian enterprise, let alone one focused on delivering energy to the world, should ever have to take. We are deploying extraordinary measures to keep our people safe and to make sure, as much as possible, every customer and every stakeholder gets what they need,” he said.

    “We will continue to defend our nation and our way of life. In fact, this experience has only reinforced our model of pragmatic progress, rooted in realism not ideology, steady in its course, practical in its approach and relentlessly focused on results.”

    Al-Jaber said the UAE and Adnoc’s resilience was not a reaction, but the result of years of investment in infrastructure, preparation and long-term planning and strategic partnerships. “For the UAE, partnership is not just something we do. It is who we are. Our commitments are concrete. Our word is our currency. And when it really matters, we step up and show up.

    “That is why our relationship with all our partners, including the United States, endure. Through Adnoc, XRG and Masdar we have already invested more than $85bn in US energy assets, supporting power generation, advanced chemicals and jobs across 19 states,” Al-Jaber said, adding the US offers a unique combination of resource depth and investment stability.

    “We are actively exploring opportunities across the whole value chain. And we are keen to expand our investments in hard infrastructure from storage to liquefaction to regasification plants.”

    Turning to the future, Al-Jaber said the crisis has revealed two very different visions. One seeks to spread instability. One seeks to promote prosperity. The UAE, he added, made its choice long ago.

    “We built Adnoc into one of the most reliable energy companies on Earth not because disruption never reaches our borders, but because when it does, we stay the course. That’s why we have diversified how we produce energy. We have expanded the routes that connect supply to markets.

    “We have integrated all sources of energy at scale. We have embedded technology and AI across our operations as the force multiplier that will define the next era of energy. And we have built a global network of partners who believe that energy security is a shared responsibility.”

    Photo: File image

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16098176/main5554.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Kuwait contractor wins Shagaya power grid deal

    24 March 2026

    Kuwait-based contractor Power Grid Company has won a KD48.6m ($158.7m) contract to build a 400kV overhead transmission line linking the Shagaya solar energy generation station with Wafra in southern Kuwait.

    The contract was awarded by Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity, Water & Renewable Energy (MEWRE).

    Power Grid was one of three firms that submitted bids last year, according to regional projects tracker MEED Projects.

    The other bidders included India’s Larsen & Toubro, with an offer of $135m, and Kuwait’s National Contracting Company, with a bid of $140m.

    The transmission line will connect Shagaya to the Wafra (Z) transformer station. The project forms part of the wider Shagaya masterplan, which is being developed as a key component of Kuwait’s renewable energy strategy, including the Shagaya renewable energy complex.

    The Kuwait Authority for Partnership Projects (Kapp) is currently procuring a 500MW solar photovoltaic (PV) independent power project (IPP) in partnership with MEWRE.

    As MEED exclusively reported, the deadline to bid for a contract to develop the plant was recently pushed back to the end of April.

    The plant is being developed under zone two of the third phase of the Al-Dibdibah power and Al-Shagaya renewable energy project.

    In January, three consortiums submitted bids for a contract to develop Kuwait’s first utility-scale solar PV plant.

    The Al-Dibdibah power and Al-Shagaya renewable energy phase three, zone one IPP will have a total power generating capacity of 1,100MW.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16097432/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Prequalification begins for Cairo Metro Line 2 upgrade

    24 March 2026

     

    Egypt’s National Authority for Tunnels (NAT) has issued a request for prequalification (RFQ) notice inviting firms to prequalify for a contract to rehabilitate and upgrade the Cairo Metro’s Line 2 network.

    The notice was issued in mid-March. The prequalification submission deadline is 30 April.

    According to the official notice, the scope of the works includes the design, execution, supply, installation, testing and commissioning of major system upgrades across the Cairo Metro Line 2 infrastructure and stations, along with integration into existing operational systems.

    The project aims to refurbish and modernise the metro line systems and enhance onboard communications across the current rolling stock fleet, to extend the metro system’s operational lifespan by at least 25 years.

    The contract duration is five years.

    The project is receiving a financing grant of €250m ($263m) from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), €240m ($252m) from the European Investment Bank (EIB) and €60m ($63m) from the Egyptian government.

    Cairo Metro Line 2 has been operational since 1996. The line runs from Shubra El-Kheima to El-Mounib, spanning about 21.5 kilometres (km) with 20 stations.

    The route includes 12 underground stations, six at-grade stations and two elevated stations.

    The track infrastructure is built around two primary track configurations.

    The line carries about 1.8 million passengers a day.

    The project is part of NAT’s key planned railway projects in the country. According to NAT’s official website, eight key projects, including metro lines, high-speed rail and light rail transit, are currently in the pipeline.

    According to GlobalData, the Egyptian construction industry is expected to grow by 6.4% in 2026, supported by rising foreign direct investment in the country, coupled with the government’s investment in energy and industrial construction projects.

    The industry’s expansion in the forecasted period will be supported by investments outlined in Egypt’s financial year 2025-26 budget, approved in June 2025. The budget includes a total government spending of E£4.6tn ($91.3bn).

    The infrastructure construction sector is expected to expand by 6.9% from 2026 to 2029, supported by investments in road, rail and port infrastructure projects.

    According to MEED Projects, Egypt has been the most active market for the rail sector in the Mena region, with contracts worth over $34bn awarded in the past decade.

    MEED’s March 2026 report on Egypt includes:

    > COMMENT: Egypt’s crisis mode gives way to cautious revival
    > GOVERNMENT: Egypt adapts its foreign policy approach
    > ECONOMY & BANKING: Egypt nears return to economic stability
    > OIL & GAS: Egypt’s oil and gas sector shows bright spots
    > POWER & WATER: Egypt utility contracts hit $5bn decade peak
    > CONSTRUCTION: Coastal destinations are a boon to Egyptian construction

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16097414/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal