Muscat performs tricky budget balancing act

12 December 2023

 

On 11 November, Oman’s Etco Space sent its first nano-satellite, Aman-1, into orbit aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launched from California. It is the sort of endeavour Muscat is keen to promote as it tries to diversify its economy.

Etco Space chief executive Abdulaziz Jaafar said his company will be “pushing the boundaries of our space programme in the coming months and years”. It aims to launch more satellites and get involved in deep-space missions. 

Oman’s economy needs to find new areas to exploit. GDP growth slowed from 4.3 per cent in 2022 to 1.3 per cent in 2023, according to the Washington-based IMF. The organisation expects the growth rate to revive to 2.7 per cent in 2024, but that is at least partly dependent on a rebound in hydrocarbons production.

This may not come to pass. Oman is part of the wider Opec+ arrangement to curb production and at the group’s meeting on 30 November, Oman agreed to cut 42,000 barrels a day (b/d) from its output during the first quarter of 2024. Opec said the cuts will be gradually unwound later in the year “subject to market conditions”.

Soft oil prices

It is not just about output, however. Oil prices have also been weaker in 2023. The Finance Ministry says Oman received $81 a barrel on average in the first nine months of 2023, compared to $94 in the same period last year. 

Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics, said the Opec+ cuts “should at least act as a floor under prices at current levels, but we would be surprised if it prompted a sustained price rally”.

As it stands, Oman’s net oil revenues were RO4.8bn ($12.5bn) in the first nine months of 2023, 10 per cent lower than a year ago. 

Gas revenues have fallen even more significantly – by 42 per cent to RO1.6bn – prompting an overall drop in public revenues of 16 per cent, or RO1.7bn.

Wider market dynamics mean the pressure is likely to continue into 2024. Bhushan Bahree, executive director at S&P Global Commodity Insights, says that crude prices are “under pressure from a looming oil over-supply early next year”, amid strong oil production growth in the Americas.

The economic pressures follow a period of fairly benign conditions. High oil revenues in recent years have enabled Omani authorities to post fiscal and current account surpluses and pay off some sovereign debt. 

Such trends have prompted the main credit ratings agencies to issue upgrades. In May 2023, Moody’s Investors Service promoted Oman from Ba3 to Ba2, while both Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings upgraded the sovereign from BB to BB+ in September.

Debt and spending

Government debt rose from just 5 per cent of GDP in 2014 to a peak of 68 per cent in 2020, but since then there has been a concerted effort to reverse that trend. By 2022, it had dropped to 40 per cent of GDP and Fitch predicts it will stabilise at about 35 per cent in 2024-25. 

Overall public debt is now at about RO16.3bn, levels last seen in 2018-19.

Despite the lower oil and gas revenues, the government has kept its spending discipline, with expenditure down 14 per cent in the first nine months of the year. This has meant the budget remains in surplus, albeit at lower levels than in 2022. Figures from the Finance Ministry show a surplus of RO791m for the first nine month of 2023, down from RO1.1bn in the same period a year earlier.

In the longer-term, Oman is pinning much of its hopes on hydrogen production. Hydrogen Oman (Hydrom) signed five deals for projects in Duqm in mid-2023, involving total potential investment of $30bn. It is hoping a second round of deals, covering blocks of land in the Dhofar region, could attract a further $20bn-$30bn, with awards due in early 2024.

Hydrom managing director Abdulaziz al-Shidhani has said total investments in the sector could reach $140bn by 2050, by which time the country is hoping to produce 8 million tonnes a year (t/y) of green hydrogen. There is an interim target of 1 million t/y by 2030.

Even if these investment and production targets are achieved, oil and gas will remain central elements of the Omani economy for some time. In a sign of the sector’s continuing importance, the $7bn OQ8 refinery project in Duqm is due to be completed by the end of 2023, with partners OQ and Kuwait Petroleum International aiming to process about 230,000 b/d of oil once it is up and running. 

Compared to the undulations in oil and gas and the wider economy, Oman’s political scene is far more stable. Since taking over in 2020, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said has pushed economic reforms but made few changes on the political side, other than gradually adjusting some of the key personnel. In late October, he appointed new governors to take over in South Al-Batinah, North Al-Sharqiyah and Al-Wusta.

There have also been public protests in Muscat over the Gaza war, but they have been more limited than some other demonstrations in recent years, such as the protests against high unemployment and inflation seen in 2018 and 2019 in cities around the country. 

As long as the government can keep the economy relatively stable, it should also be able to maintain the political equilibrium.


MEED's January 2024 special report on Oman also includes:

> BANKINGOmani banks look to projects for growth
> POWER & WATEROman expands grid connectivity

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11364460/main.gif
Dominic Dudley
Related Articles
  • Dubai receives $22bn tunnels investor prequalifications

    30 October 2024

    Potential investors have submitted their statements of qualifications (SOQs) for a contract to develop and operate various packages of the $22bn Dubai Strategic Sewerage Tunnels (DSST) project.

    MEED understands the project client, the Dubai Municipality, received SOQs from over a dozen companies, including several that have been prequalified as engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractors for the project's first four packages.

    According to industry sources, the companies that are keen to prequalify as investors or sponsors of the planned public-private partnership (PPP) project include:

    • Abrdn Investcorp Infrastructure Investments Manager (UK)
    • Besix (Belgium)
    • China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC)
    • China Railway Engineering Group (CREG)
    • China State Construction Engineering Corporation (China)
    • Itochu (Japan)
    • Plenary (Australia)
    • Samsung C&T (South Korea)
    • Vision Invest (Saudi Arabia)
    • WeBuild (Italy)

    The project client and its consultants held a consortium match-making event for prospective contractors and sponsors or investors in Dubai on 7 October.

    MEED previously reported that the bidders for the six public-private partnership (PPP) packages will be prequalified consortiums comprised of sponsors or investors; engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractors; and operations and maintenance contractors.

    The overall project will require a capital expenditure of about AED30bn ($8bn), while the whole-life cost over the full concession terms of the entire project is estimated to reach AED80bn.

    The investor prequalification process for the scheme comes after the client prequalified EPC contractors that can partner with the developers or investors to bid for the contracts.

    MEED understands that packages J1 and W will be tendered together as separate contracts first, followed by J2 and J3, with the requests for proposals to be issued sequentially, staggered about six to 12 months apart.

    Dubai Municipality is expected to invite prequalified companies to submit bids for the contracts to develop the first two packages of the DSST project in the fourth quarter of 2024.

    DSST packages

    Under the current plan, the $22bn DSST project is broken down into six packages, which will be tendered as PPP packages with concession periods lasting between 25 and 35 years.

    The first package, J1, comprises Jebel Ali tunnels (North) and terminal pump stations (TPS). The tunnels will extend approximately 42 kilometres (km), and the links will extend 10km. 

    The second package, J2, covers the southern section of the Jebel Ali tunnels, which will extend 16km and have a link stretching 46km.

    W for Warsan, the third package, comprises 16km of tunnels, TPS and 46km of links.

    J3, the fourth package, comprises 129km of links.

    J1, J2, W and J3 will comprise the deep sewerage tunnels, links and TPS (TLT) components of the overall project.

    J1, J2 and W will be procured under a design-build-finance-operate-maintain model with a concession period of 25-35 years.

    J3 will be procured under a design-build-finance model with a concession period of 25-35 years. Once completed, Dubai Municipality will operate J3, unlike the first three packages, which are planned to be operated and maintained by the winning PPP contractors.  

    The project’s remaining two packages entail the expansion and upgrade of the Jebel Ali and Warsan sewage treatment plants.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12804424/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • TotalEnergies $11bn hydrogen project starts pre-feed

    30 October 2024

     

    France’s TotalEnergies has started the pre-front-end engineering and design (feed) for its planned $11bn integrated project to produce green hydrogen and ammonia in Morocco, according to a company spokesperson.

    TotalEnergies signed the joint development agreement with the relevant authorities and ministers in Morocco on 28 October, during French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to the North African state.

    It was previously reported that the planned integrated facility would be located in Guelmim-Oued Noun in southern Morocco.

    TotalEnergies’ chairman and CEO, Patrick Pouyanne, signed the agreement for the local production of green hydrogen and ammonia in the presence of Morocco’s King Mohammed VI and Macron.

    The counterparties included Morocco’s Energy Minister, Leila Benali; Economy and Finance Minister, Nadia Fattah; Interior Minister, Abdelouafi Laftit; and Minister Delegate in charge of Investment, Karim Zidane.

    It is understood that the project will require the development of 10GW of solar and wind energy and a land area of 187,000 hectares.

    It was reported that Morocco’s Unified Regional Investment Commission had approved the project’s launch in November 2022.

    The other agreements signed during Macron’s visit to Morocco cover financial cooperation in the rail, forestry, aviation, logistics and energy sectors, with a particular focus on decarbonisation and energy transition.

    TotalEnergies has been exploring green hydrogen and other related projects in the Middle East and North Africa region.

    In August, the Courbevoie-headquartered firm and Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) signed an agreement to assess the viability of developing a commercial green hydrogen-to-methanol-to-sustainable aviation fuel (saf) project.

    It is also among the early investors in UK-based Xlinks First, which aims to deliver the $18bn Morocco-UK power interconnector project. TotalEnergies acquired a minority stake in the company following an investment of $25.4m announced in November last year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12819510/main.gif
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Decarbonising steel is hard to resist

    29 October 2024

    Commentary
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
    Energy & technology editor

    A pilot green hydrogen plant supplying a small amount of colourless gas that will be used to extract iron from iron ore – a key steelmaking step – is not a big deal, especially given the multibillion-dollar industrial and petrochemicals investments that this region has grown accustomed to over the past decades.  

    The project can be seen as a just one element of Abu Dhabi's multi-pronged strategy to decarbonise large swathes of its economy, given that the client for this project, the newly rebranded Emsteel, holds a 60% share in the local steel industry and exports products to about 70 countries.    

    The global steel industry accounts for about 7% of annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

    On one hand, it will take a lot more than a few electrolysers to produce hydrogen that will be used to further decarbonise Emsteel's production and operations; on the other, a small first step is required to make a future big leap given the enormity and urgency of the challenge, and the vast investment it requires.

    Specific details are sparse regarding the pilot plant and the future timeline to scale hydrogen production at Emsteel's manufacturing complex in Abu Dhabi.

    However, as the executives of Emsteel and its hydrogen partner, Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar), have said, the completion of the pilot project is a vital first step towards producing certifiable green steel, which is expected to enjoy brisk demand as pressures to decarbonise sectors such as construction increase across the globe.

    As it is, Emsteel's credentials include being the world's first steelmaker to capture part of its carbon dioxide emissions, thanks to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's (Adnoc) Al-Reyadah carbon capture, utilisation and storage facility. This has enabled the company to operate with "45% less carbon intensity than the global average". Its utilisation of clean energy also rose above 80% last year.

    Today, from the vantage point of the stakeholders, the specific details of the pilot project matter less than what it signifies, which is that Abu Dhabi intends to become a major green steel producer, and that it can transform a hard-to-abate sector into a hard to resist one.

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12812275/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Neom to tender hydropower contract

    29 October 2024

     

    Neom's utility subsidiary Enowa is expected to issue the request for proposals (RFP) for a contract to develop and operate the first phase of a pumped hydropower storage (PHS) network catering to Saudi Arabia's Neom gigaproject before the end of the year.

    The planned first phase of Neom’s PHS project, known as Nestor, will have an installed capacity of 2,200MW and a storage capacity of 23.1 gigawatt-hours, or about 11 hours, according to industry sources.

    Enowa received statements of qualifications from international and local developers and investors on 30 June.

    However, it has yet to release the prequalification evaluation results. 

    "As far as we know, the RFP is set to be issued some time in December this year," a source familiar with the project tells MEED. 

    The Nestor project will be developed using a build-own-operate-transfer model that is expected to cover 40 years, excluding the construction period.

    The expected capital expenditure for the project is $2.7bn.

    Enowa received expressions of interest in bidding for the project from developers and contractors in January this year.

    PHS network

    The overall infrastructure will involve developing four PHS stations in Neom. The planned schemes will form the backbone of an energy storage infrastructure at the SR1.5tn ($500bn) development. 

    The other three planned PHS projects will be located in Al-Qimmah, Nima and Beach Mountain, and will have capacities of about 3,000MW, 1,000MW and 3,000MW, respectively.

    UK-based HSBC and US-based White & Case are advising the client on the scheme.

    The PHS independent power project will complement Neom’s planned multi-gigawatt renewable energy infrastructure, in line with its vision of being 100% powered by renewable energy by 2030.

    A PHS facility typically comprises two water reservoirs at different elevations that can generate power when water passes through a turbine and moves down or is discharged from the upper reservoir to the lower reservoir.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12812234/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • TotalEnergies signs $11bn Morocco green hydrogen deal

    29 October 2024

    France's TotalEnergies has signed an agreement to develop an $11bn project to produce hydrogen and green ammonia in Morocco.

    It was previously reported that the planned integrated facility will be located in Guelmim-Oued Noun in southern Morocco.

    The deal is one of 22 that were signed during French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to the North African state on 28 October.

    TotalEnergies' chairman and CEO, Patrick Pouyanne, signed the agreement for the local production of green hydrogen and ammonia in the presence of Morocco's King Mohammed VI and Macron, according to local media reports.

    The counterparty includes Morocco's Energy Minister, Leila Benali; Economy & Finance Minister, Nadia Fattah; Interior Minister, Abdelouafi Laftit; and Minister Delegate in charge of Investment, Karim Zidane.

    It is understood that the project will require the development of 10GW of solar and wind energy and a land area of 187,000 hectares.

    It was reported that Morocco's Unified Regional Investment Commission had approved the project’s launch in November 2022.

    The other agreements signed during Macron's visit to Morocco cover financial cooperation in the rail, forestry, aviation, logistics and energy sectors, with a particular focus on decarbonisaton and energy transition.

    TotalEnergies has been exploring green hydrogen and other related projects in the Middle East and North Africa region.

    In August, the Courbevoie-headquartered firm and Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) signed an agreement to assess the viability of developing a commercial green hydrogen to methanol to sustainable aviation fuel (saf) project.

    It is also among the early investors in UK-based Xlinks First, which aims to deliver the $18bn Morocco-UK power interconnector project. TotalEnergies acquired a minority stake in the company following an investment of $25.4m, which was announced in November last year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12811486/main.gif
    Jennifer Aguinaldo