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Morocco gas and fertiliser project activity surges

13 July 2023

> Maghreb energy project activity doubles
> Morocco fertiliser project progresses towards approval
> Morocco fertiliser company plans four solar plants
> Nigeria to invest $12.5bn in Morocco pipeline
> Genel in talks to develop Moroccan oil assets
> Design completed for Moroccan gas project

 

Over the past three years, Morocco has seen a surge in early-stage gas and chemical project activity that could potentially be worth multibillion dollars.

The country is taking advantage of its proximity to Europe and demand for fertilisers as well as its potential to benefit as a possible transit route for natural gas.

At the same time, it is advancing exploration and production projects for natural gas that may pay dividends over the long term.

While many of the projects are in their early stages, and some of the largest projects are highly speculative, it is likely that some will ultimately see contracts awarded over the coming years.

Nigeria pipeline

The planned $25bn Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline is currently the biggest project in Morocco’s gas sector and is also one of the most speculative.

As the project spans 13 countries, it is complicated and will need cooperation between all of the nations involved to succeed.

Despite the challenges, there has been significant progress on the project.

In April, Nigeria’s National Petroleum Company (NNPC) said it was preparing to invest $12.5bn to secure a 50 per cent equity stake in the project.

At the time, Mallam Mele Kyari, group CEO of NNPC, said the first phase of the front-end engineering and design (feed) work had been completed, and the second phase of the feed work was under way.

Earlier this month, NNPC tendered contracts to carry out survey work for pipeline sections with a bid deadline of 20 September this year.

Morocco will host 1,672 kilometres of the pipeline. The country’s head of state, King Mohammed VI, has described it as a strategic turning point that will significantly advance the development of West Africa. The project will extend for 5,600km in total.

The 13 countries involved in the project signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Morocco’s National Office of Hydrocarbons & Mines in December 2022.

Regasification

Other midstream gas projects active in Morocco include two liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification terminals.

One of these was first announced in 2021 after Algeria shut down a gas pipeline between the two countries.

The client on this project is Morocco’s Ministry of Energy & Mining, and the terminal is due to be developed near the capital city of Rabat.

It is part of a gas-to-power project, and the entire project is estimated to have a value of $1.3bn.

Contractors have submitted bids on this project, but contracts are yet to be awarded.

The second regasification terminal has an estimated value of $200m and is due to be located in Morocco’s Mohammedia Port.

This project is also being developed by Morocco’s Ministry of Energy & Mining and was first announced in 2021.

Like the project slated to be developed near Rabat, bids have been submitted, but contracts are yet to be awarded.

Upstream

Although Morocco continues to be a net gas importer, there has been progress on upstream gas projects within the country since 2021.

In December last year, the Anchois project offshore Morocco took a step forward after London-based Chariot agreed the key principles of a gas sales deal.

Anchois hosts about 1.5 trillion cubic feet of potential gas resources and is being developed via subsea wells tied back direct to an onshore gas processing plant.

Chariot said that, together with its field partner, state-owned ONHYM, it had agreed key principles for long-term gas sales from Anchois with Morocco’s National Office of Electricity & Drinking Water (Onee).

These principles included gas sales of up to 600 million cubic metres a year on a take-or-pay basis for a minimum of 10 years, with gas to be delivered via the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline.

Earlier this month, another London-listed oil company, Sound Energy, secured funding to execute the second development phase of the company’s Tendrara production concession in Morocco.

The company confirmed the funding arrangement in a statement and said it has “now received a conditioned offer from the arranger for a maximum financing of $237m”, subject to certain conditions being met by September 2023.

Morocco’s Attijariwafa Bank will finance the gas field’s second development phase.

Sound Energy said that the financial facility will be used for the “design, drilling, construction and operation of wells, a treatment facility and a gas pipeline to transport and sell the natural gas produced under the Tendrara production concession”.

The Tendrara gas development project has a total estimated value of $1bn.

Additionally, in December last year, the Israeli independent oil and gas company NewMed Energy struck a controversial deal to take a stake in an exploration licence offshore the disputed territory of Western Sahara.

Morocco currently controls Western Sahara, although the African Union and United Nations do not recognise Rabat’s sovereignty, while the indigenous Saharawi people are fighting for independence.

NewMed Energy signed an agreement with the Moroccan Ministry for Energy & Mining and Adarco Energy to explore and produce natural gas in the offshore Boujdour Atlantique block.

NewMed and Adarco will each have a 37.5 per cent stake in the licence partnership, while the Moroccan ministry will hold the remaining 25 per cent. The licence has been granted for eight years.

The Boujdour Atlantique block was previously operated by US oil company Kosmos Energy, which held a 55 per cent stake in the permit, while its partner UK company Capricorn – a subsidiary of Cairn Energy – had 20 per cent.

The remaining 25 per cent was in the hands of ONHYM.

Fertilisers

Morocco has seen an uptick in activity in ammonia and fertiliser projects in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war.

In June 2022, the Moroccan phosphate giant OCP announced that its net income had more than doubled compared to the previous year, mostly attributed to the rise in fertiliser prices due to the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Morocco is among the world's top four exporters of fertiliser products, after Russia, China and Canada.

It has a large fertiliser industry, mainly due to its large phosphate reserves, one of the key minerals from which fertilisers are produced.

In January, OCP announced that it had signed supply agreements with India for 1.7 million tonnes of phosphate-based fertilisers in 2023.

Under the deals, OCP will supply India with 700,000 tonnes of a nitrogen-free fertiliser known as triple super phosphate (TSP), in addition to 1 million tonnes of diammonium phosphate (DAP).

One Moroccan fertiliser project that is seeing progress is the Khemisset potash project in the north of the country.

In April, Emmerson, the company developing the project, said it was progressing towards final approval for the project’s environmental permit.

The potash project is anticipated to have a pre-production cost of $387m. It is expected to be able to produce, on average, 810,000 tonnes of muriate of potash (MOP), with a potassium content of 60 per cent, every year over the mine’s first 19 years of production.

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Wil Crisp

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    MEED revealed that Samsung was working on the feed contract for the petrochemical project earlier this month.

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    Samsung Engineering said: “Alujain has expressed its confidence in Samsung Engineering by awarding feed after previously awarding Samsung Engineering with the pre-feed contract.”

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    It has already executed 32 projects in Saudi Arabia, five of which were propylene projects.

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    Hong Namkoong, president and CEO of Samsung Engineering, said: “As we are proceeding from the initial pre-feed stage to the feed stage of the project, we are applying all of Samsung Engineering’s innovative technologies.”

    In May, it was announced that Alujain had selected the C3 Catofin PDH technology from US-based Lummus Technology for the planned propylene plant.

    The scope of work for Lummus Technology covers the provision of the technology licence and basic engineering.

    Alujain said in April this year that it intends to accelerate work on the planned project.

    In a filing with the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) on 10 April, it said it would improve its business through “accelerating work on the development of engineering works and then the construction and operation of the company’s new factory to produce propylene, polypropylene and other specialised products”.

    MEED’s October 2023 special report on Saudi Arabia includes: 

    > POLITICS: Saudi Arabia looks both east and west
    > SPORT: Saudi Arabia’s football vision goes global
    > ECONOMY: Riyadh prioritises stability over headline growth
    > BANKS: Saudi banks track more modest growth path
    > UPSTREAM: Aramco focuses on upstream capacity building
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi chemical and downstream projects in motion
    > POWER: Riyadh rides power projects surge
    > WATER: Saudi water projects momentum holds steady
    > GIGAPROJECTS: Gigaproject activity enters full swing
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  • Riyadh reshapes its global role

    28 September 2023

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    Riyadh is on a mission to cultivate its global status and diplomatic and geopolitical soft power like never before, seeking out forums and platforms of interest at all levels of international engagement and interaction. 

    In 2023 alone, Saudi Arabia has joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, launched the Global Water Organisation and been formally invited to join the Brics bloc of emerging markets.

    Global sports has also become a major new arena of activity for Saudi Arabia. The kingdom has secured the rights to host football’s 2027 Asian Cup and the 2029 Asian Winter Games. In 2022, it oversaw the Public Investment Fund’s launch of the LIV Golf League. 

    It also directed Saudi Pro League clubs to engage in an extraordinary spending spree in the 2023 summer transfer season, buying 94 overseas players, including 37 from Europe’s Big Five leagues. 

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    Perhaps no clearer sign of the kingdom’s will to reshape the regional future is its recent moves to bury the hatchet with Iran – a detente that yet hangs in the balance over Saudi Arabia’s position on Israel amid the murmurings of a normalisation deal being within sight. Riyadh may have to choose one or the other. Yet regardless, down either path lies the potential for a change that overthrows decades of regional geopolitical convention.

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    > BANKS: Saudi banks track more modest growth path
    > UPSTREAM: Aramco focuses on upstream capacity building
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi chemical and downstream projects in motion
    > POWER: Riyadh rides power projects surge
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  • Riyadh prioritises stability over headline growth

    28 September 2023

    MEED's October 2023 special report on Saudi Arabia also includes: 

    > POLITICS: Saudi Arabia looks both east and west
    > GIGAPROJECTS: Gigaproject activity enters full swing
    > TRANSPORT: Infrastructure projects support Riyadh’s logistics ambitions
    > UPSTREAM: Aramco focuses on upstream capacity building
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi chemical and downstream projects in motion
    > POWER: Riyadh rides power projects surge
    > WATER: Saudi water projects momentum holds steady
    > BANKS: Saudi banks track more modest growth path
    > SPORT: Saudi Arabia’s football vision goes global
    > JEDDAH TOWER: Jeddah developer restarts world’s tallest tower

     

    As 2023 heads towards its final quarter, Saudi Arabia has elected to continue to pursue further voluntary Opec+ oil production cuts, supporting oil prices at the expense of its own immediate GDP growth.

    On 5 September, Riyadh confirmed its intention to roll over its additional 1 million barrels a day (b/d) of production cuts until the end of the fourth quarter. Analysts had largely expected Saudi Arabia to extend the cuts with a view to further tightening oil markets, and the price of Brent crude broke the $90-a-barrel mark and reached its highest point in 10 months shortly after the cut extension was announced.

    Despite the rise in prices, Saudi Arabia’s ongoing oil production restraint will ensure no improvement is likely to be made on its modest mid-year real GDP growth forecasts.

    In July, the Washington-based IMF lowered its projection for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth to 1.9 per cent, down from an earlier forecast of 3.1 per cent in April – and compared to an 8.7 per cent growth figure for 2022, which saw oil reach highs of up to $124 a barrel and the kingdom’s first fiscal surplus in nearly a decade.

    The country also entered a technical recession in the second quarter after its economy contracted for its second successive quarter in a row – shrinking by 0.1 per cent after a contraction of 1.4 per cent in the first quarter, according to estimates from the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat). This resulted in a slowing of year-on-year growth to 3.8 per cent in the first quarter and 1.1 per cent in the second.

    There is now a risk that the Saudi economy could see an overall contraction for 2023. The further three months of production cuts will translate into a 9 per cent overall fall in production in 2023, the largest drop in 15 years, according to Khalij Economics.

    Non-oil growth

    Despite the disappointing headline GDP growth figures and projections, however, Saudi Arabia is maintaining a robust non-oil growth rate.

    The non-oil economy is estimated to have grown 5.5 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2023, according to Gastat, while oil sector growth declined by 4.2 per cent. Private sector growth for the quarter has been estimated to be even higher, at about 6.1 per cent.

    At the same time, the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia purchasing managers’ index (PMI) settled to an 11-month low of 56.6 in August 2023, down from 57.7 in July, reflecting a moderation of non-oil activity. It was the second stepdown in two months for the index from a multi-year high for new business in June.

    The headline PMI figures remain deeply positive, however, with the index well above the 50 mark that delineates growth from contraction. 

    The index also saw the rate of job creation pick up further in August amid sustained new business growth. This reflects a continuation of a job creation trend in the country that has seen unemployment fall from 9 per cent during the Covid-19 pandemic to 4.8 per cent at the end of 2022. Meanwhile, youth unemployment has been halved over the past two years to 16.8 per cent in 2022.

    On the flipside, input cost inflation accelerated to its fastest rate in over a year due to a sharper uptick in purchase prices, though selling prices partially compensated for this by also rising. Business confidence nevertheless slid to the lowest level since June 2020 over concerns of rising market competition.

    Project performance

    The kingdom’s non-oil sector should continue to be well supported by Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure and project spending plans. These schemes remain affordable thanks to the kingdom’s broad financial reserves and buffers.

    As of mid-September, Saudi Arabia’s project spending for 2023 had already all but matched that of 2022, with contract awards in the kingdom approaching the $57bn mark – last year’s figure – but with three and a half months still left to run. 

    This is the third straight year with project awards of around $55bn or more. This is a 75 per cent increase in spending compared to the period from 2016 to 2020, which witnessed an average of only slightly more than $30bn in awards each year.

    There is a further $50bn-worth of project work in bid evaluation and expected to be awarded this year. Even accommodating the possibility of delays for much of this work, the award of even a modest portion of this would make 2023 by far the strongest year on record for project awards in Saudi Arabia.

    This heightened level of projects activity is as much due to above-average spending on oil and gas infrastructure, amid a spree of investment by Saudi Aramco in the optimisation of its core assets, as it is to the kingdom’s gigaproject programme. 

    Oil and gas project awards alone have exceeded $21bn in 2023 to date and could readily be on track to beat the previous award high of $24.7bn seen in 2019.

    It is the construction and transport sector that has the furthest to go to outdo itself in the last quarter of 2023. 

    Awards in the sector to date have hit $24.6bn, whereas awards in 2022 reached $34.7bn – so there is a $10.1bn gap to bridge to beat last year’s performance. This is not unrealistic given the $14.2bn-worth of projects in the sector under bid evaluation, and especially given the backing of the Public Investment Fund for the kingdom’s gigaprojects and other Vision 2030 schemes.

    Overall, the ongoing upsurge in projects activity should continue to prove supportive of the non-oil economy, regardless of either the vicissitudes of the oil price or Saudi Arabia’s moderation of its own oil production.

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    John Bambridge
  • Saudi’s Jeddah Tower reaches for new heights

    27 September 2023

     

    A landmark moment came for Saudi Arabia’s construction sector in mid-September when Jeddah Economic Company (JEC) invited firms to bid for a contract to complete the world’s tallest tower project, the 1,000-metre-plus Jeddah Tower.

    Work on the tower “is back in full [swing]”, a source close to the project told MEED.

    When completed, Jeddah Tower will be the first structure in history to exceed 1 kilometre in height. It will also be taller than the current world’s tallest building, Dubai’s Burj Khalifa, by more than 172 metres. 

    When contacted by MEED, Talal Ibrahim Almaiman, CEO of Kingdom Holding Company, confirmed that the tender to complete the record-breaking tower had been officially issued.

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    The contractors have been given three months to prepare their bids, and are expected to form joint ventures comprising local and international partners. It is understood that contractors have visited the site.

    When completed, Jeddah Tower will be the first structure in history to exceed 1 kilometre in height

    Restarting construction

    One important question for the potential bidders is the condition of the tower’s existing structure. JEC commissioned an independent assessment of the structure before the tender was issued. Sources close to the project have told MEED that the report concluded that building work can restart.

    The construction work for the superstructure of the tower, which began in the early 2010s with the local Saudi Binladin Group (SBG) as the contractor, is one-third complete.

    SBG stopped working on the project in February 2018. In September this year, JEC called in the performance guarantees or bonds provided by SBG. A source close to the project said that the value of the bonds totals SR653m ($174m).

    Almaiman confirmed that the developer has exercised its rights under the contract after having given SBG five years to re-engage.

    While SBG is no longer working as the contractor on the project, the consultancy team remains the same. The architect is US-based Adrian Smith & Gordon Gill, and the engineering consultant is Lebanon’s Dar al-Handasah (Shair & Partners).

    Project stakeholders 

    The shareholders in JEC are Kingdom Holding Company with a 40 per cent stake, Bakhsh Group with a 40 per cent stake, and Sharbatly Group with a 20 per cent share.

    In 2015, JEC and Saudi Arabia’s Alinma Investment established a $2.24bn fund to finance the first phase of the Jeddah Economic City project and Jeddah Tower. The Alinma Jeddah Economic City Fund is a sharia-compliant fund that will operate under the Saudi Arabian Capital Market Authority. 

    Alinma Bank agreed to finance the fund, which is managed by Alinma Investment. Prince Alwaleed bin Talal bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, chairman of Kingdom Holding Company, was appointed as chair of the fund’s board. 


    The 170-storey Jeddah Tower will have a variety of revenue streams and will
    feature the world’s highest observation deck. Credit: Jeddah Economic Company

    Development plans

    Jeddah Tower is the centrepiece of the Jeddah Economic City development in the Obhur district, north of Jeddah. The project’s first phase, which includes Jeddah Tower, covers an area of 1.5 square kilometres.

    The mixed-use tower will have 170 storeys, seven of which will be allocated to a five-star, 200-room Four Seasons Hotel. There will also be 11 storeys housing 121 serviced apartments, and seven storeys of offices. 

    A further 61 storeys of the tower will comprise 318 residential units, a gym, spa, cafes and restaurants. Plans also include several sky lobbies and the world’s highest observation deck, located on the top floors of the tower, 660 metres above the ground. 

    Development work on the project began in 2006. Building the world’s tallest tower requires state-of-the-art technologies and construction methods. 

    The piling and foundations work for the tower was completed in 2014. Germany’s Bauer was the piling contractor, and 270 piles were cast, reaching 105 metres below ground. The raft sitting on top of the piles is one of the world’s largest reinforced steel foundations, with a thickness of between 4.5 and 5 metres. 

    Cranage is a major challenge when constructing megatall towers. In early 2015, JEC took delivery of custom-made cranes, supplied by Germany’s Liebherr & WolffKran.

    For elevators, Finland’s Kone was appointed to supply the fastest and highest double- decker elevator system in the world. The planned system will travel at a speed of more than 10 metres a second, rising to 660 metres. 

    MEED's October 2023 special report on Saudi Arabia includes: 

    > POLITICS: Saudi Arabia looks both east and west
    > SPORT: Saudi Arabia’s football vision goes global
    > ECONOMY: Riyadh prioritises stability over headline growth
    > BANKS: Saudi banks track more modest growth path
    > UPSTREAM: Aramco focuses on upstream capacity building
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi chemical and downstream projects in motion
    > POWER: Riyadh rides power projects surge
    > WATER: Saudi water projects momentum holds steady
    > GIGAPROJECTS: Gigaproject activity enters full swing
    > TRANSPORT: Infrastructure projects support Riyadh’s logistics ambitions
    > JEDDAH TOWER: Jeddah developer restarts world’s tallest tower

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11177248/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Saudi Arabia’s football vision goes global

    27 September 2023

    MEED's October 2023 special report on Saudi Arabia also includes: 

    > POLITICS: Saudi Arabia looks both east and west
    > GIGAPROJECTS: Gigaproject activity enters full swing
    > TRANSPORT: Infrastructure projects support Riyadh’s logistics ambitions
    > UPSTREAM: Aramco focuses on upstream capacity building
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi chemical and downstream projects in motion
    > POWER: Riyadh rides power projects surge
    > WATER: Saudi water projects momentum holds steady
    > BANKS: Saudi banks track more modest growth path
    > JEDDAH TOWER: Jeddah developer restarts world’s tallest tower

     

    Saudi Arabia has invested more than $6.3bn in sport since early 2021, but that figure will be a fraction of what is coming if plans for its 18-club Saudi Pro League bear fruit.

    The kingdom’s entry into world football started in October 2021, when the Public Investment Fund (PIF) bought Newcastle United. Benefitting from a new manager and fresh on-field talent, the team came fourth in the premiership in the 2022-23 season and qualified for this year’s European Champions League.

    It is said that Riyadh aims to emulate Abu Dhabi, which bought Manchester City in 2008, but the kingdom’s ambitions go beyond owning a single European club: it is aiming to remake its position in world sport. 

    The exertions are not dissimilar to the way in which the Brics economic grouping, which the kingdom was invited to join in August, hopes to remake the world’s monetary dogma by breaking the dollar’s grip on the global economy. The Saudi Pro League may be the kingdom’s way of ending Europe’s dominance in football.

    Establishing the Saudi Pro League as one of the best will enhance the kingdom’s desire for a say at the highest levels of global club football

    Mixed returns

    Abu Dhabi has demonstrated that owning a football club can deliver benefits that go beyond income and capital appreciation. It has boosted the emirate’s image, promoted its airline Etihad and given Abu Dhabi a seat at the table of the English Premier League. It has also faced challenges.

    Manchester City has been accused of breaching Premier League and Uefa rules about licensing and financial sustainability. In 2020, it was fined and banned from European competitions for two years for alleged breaches of Uefa’s fair play rules, though that was overruled. The club is now subject to a long-term investigation into 115 alleged breaches of Europe’s fair play rules.

    Now Newcastle United, which the premiership never wanted to be bought by Saudi Arabia, is being closely scrutinised for evidence that the kingdom is unfairly boosting the club’s spending.

    There are also signs that the British football boom, which began after the English premiership was created in 1992, is coming to an end. Top clubs enjoyed a windfall from satellite television rights and then the influx of investment from wealthy individuals, starting with Russia’s Roman Abramovitch 10 years later. This has now been overshadowed by the financial might of Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia in England and by Qatar, owner of Paris Saint Germain since 2011, in France.

    But the appetite among even the wealthiest investors for football assets may be fading. Earlier this year, Manchester United’s owners rejected an offer for the club from Qatar as inadequate.

    Sports Saudisation

    Saudi Arabia’s new approach is different. Instead of sending money overseas, it is looking to invest heavily in football within the kingdom. In the 2023 summer transfer season, Saudi Pro League clubs spent a net $907m on players, more than all of the Big Five leagues but the Premier League, which spent $1.39bn.

    The economic benefits are easily comprehended. PIF finance would go into building domestic stadiums and training facilities. Money paid to players and support staff would be retained in the kingdom. In addition to a domestic audience of football fans, Saudi Arabia has international airports and an aviation network to bring in fans from across the globe.

    Establishing the Saudi Pro League as one of the best will enhance the kingdom’s desire for a say at the highest levels of global club football. 

    European football’s perilous financial position is why plans for a European Super League comprising 12 teams, announced in the spring of 2021, initially attracted support from the clubs involved. It was scrapped at the last minute, but dreams of a super league – and the problems that inspired it – remain. It is conceivable that the kingdom could argue a case for membership should it be revived, though that is a consideration for the future.

    In the meantime, Saudi Arabia’s impact on football is already being felt. Last December, Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo signed for Riyadh’s Al-Nassr. Other top players that have since signed to play in the kingdom include Brazil’s Neymar, Ballon d’Or holder Karim Benzema, African Footballer of the Year Sadio Mane, World Cup winner N’Golo Kante and former Liverpool captain Jordan Henderson.

    In July, Kylian Mbappe turned down an offer from Riyadh’s Al-Hilal worth almost €300m ($321.5m) and a salary of €200m for a one-season stay. But – in what would be a coup for the Saudi league if it is accepted – a world-record signing fee is reported to have been offered by Al-Ittihad in September for Egypt’s Mohamed Saleh.

    Newcastle United could fit into the kingdom’s broader football plan as a source of talent that can be sold to the Saudi league to bring money into the English club while avoiding the fair play charges encumbering Manchester City. The first example of the process may have been Allan Saint Maximim, who was transferred to Al-Ahli for a reported transfer fee of almost $30m in July.

    Last summer, Riyadh also launched what is now the Liv Golf League. There has also been talk of it buying a US National Football League club. The kingdom is investing in other sports as well, but it is football that it is bringing home this autumn.

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    Edmund O’Sullivan