meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

More pain for more gain for Egypt

7 February 2024

This package on Egypt also includes:

> UK and Egypt sign infrastructure agreement
> Familiar realities threaten Egypt’s energy hub ambitions
> Egypt nears fresh loan agreement with IMF
> ADQ and Adnec invest in Egypt hospitality group
> Egypt’s President El Sisi secures third term
> Egypt 2024 country profile and databank 

 

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi might have hoped for a honeymoon period after his resounding election win in December, but has enjoyed not a bit of it.

Egypt started 2024 with an economic crisis gaining in intensity, with events in the Red Sea – sharply reducing traffic through the Suez Canal – compounding other challenges, including a foreign currency (FX) shortage, a depreciating pound on the parallel market and rising inflation.

The president’s words on 24 January were ominous: “Egyptians need to live with economic pain,” he said, indicating that 2024 would be a tough year.

With Egypt’s economic crisis worsening by the week, the siren calls for a support package from the Washington-based IMF have grown ever louder. Expectations are high that a new and larger extended fund facility (EFF) is imminent, with IMF officials visiting Cairo in January to hammer out a deal.

Analysts have suggested the EFF – initially set at $3.9bn – could now be as high as $10bn-$12bn. This increase reflects the desperate situation that Egypt is in.

It is also a sign that Egypt still has a few cards left up its sleeve – not least amid the current crisis in the Middle East that has left it playing a vital role, however ineffectually, as the main conduit for aid deliveries into Gaza.

The Red Sea crisis and the desire to keep a dependable security partner in the region afloat are also factors.

“There is a bit more political willingness to support Egypt than a year ago,” says James Swanston, Middle East and North Africa economist at Capital Economics.

Economic precipice

The immediate backdrop to the renewed EFF negotiations is the sharp deterioration in the value of the pound after a bad 2023 that saw the official rate depreciate by 25% against the dollar.

By the end of January, the pound was trading at £E68-£E70 to the dollar, more than double the official rate of nearly £E30.9 to the dollar. Although the announcement of an imminent deal with the IMF in early February led the pound to rally to £E55 to the dollar on 4 February.

The fiscal headwinds are nevertheless increasingly fierce in 2024. With about 60% of its revenues absorbed by interest payments, according to ratings agency Moody’s, the government has very limited fiscal headroom to respond to such shocks. Cairo’s dilemma is that even if the EFF is raised to the upper limit of $12bn, it will only partially cover its financing needs.

Meanwhile, ratings agencies have been busy downgrading the sovereign. Fitch Ratings cut Egypt’s long-term foreign currency rating to B- from B, with a stable outlook, in November, reflecting its perception of heightened risks to Egypt’s external financing, macroeconomic stability and the trajectory of already-high government debt.

The slow progress on reforms, including the delay in the transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime, has damaged the credibility of exchange rate policy and exacerbated external financing constraints at a time of increasing external government debt repayments, said Fitch.

External financing stresses influenced the downgrading of Egypt, says Paul Gamble, director of the sovereign group at Fitch Ratings.

“There are FX challenges becoming apparent and also concerns over the availability of foreign currency. There are significant black-market transactions and FX shortages, signalling that downward pressures on the currency have increased, and the path to policy adjustment has become more complicated, at a time of high external debt repayments.”

One particular challenge facing Egypt is that Egyptian expatriate remission inflows from the Gulf states have declined, with many getting a better deal on the parallel market than through official channels.

Then there are the Suez Canal revenues, which government officials say fell by 44% in January compared to the same month in 2023.

“The revenue collections from the Suez Canal are a very stable source of income for Egypt, so the fact that they have been hit is a bit of a concern,” says Gamble.

“The impact on investor sentiment and the parallel market rates could further complicate the transition to a more flexible exchange rate. On the other hand, the IMF is talking about upsizing its assistance programme, and Egypt is getting more bilateral attention.”

Next steps forward

Assuming the EFF is finalised, attention will then switch to what comes next.

The strings attached to that package will be substantial, incurring both political and economic costs.

Fiscal policy will see more stringency, with sharp cutbacks on spending. Major projects may lose some support. Yet, while these projects are important for job prospects in Egypt, the IMF’s message is to keep fiscal policy tight for now. 

More stringency on the privatisation drive is also on the menu. Under the country’s divestment programme for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), speculators suggest that up to 150 SOEs may be sold off. However, political sensitivities over the military’s footprint in many of these assets mean delays are possible.

The most important thing in the near term is dealing with the pound, which was in virtual free fall at the end of January, forcing banks to install limits on FX transactions.

According to Capital Economics, if a staff-level agreement is announced, the central bank would move swiftly to devalue the pound by an initial 23%, to £E40 to the dollar, before allowing it to freely float.

“We feel [a rate of £E40-£E43 to the dollar] is a natural level, and it should not result in a fresh inflationary spike, but rather, inflation will fall at a slower rate,” says Swanston.

It was suggested that this could coincide with a sharp hike in interest rates of at least 300 basis points (bps), to 22.25%, and indeed, on 1 February, the central bank went ahead with this, raising the deposit rate to 21.25% and the lending rate to 22.25%.

That said, higher-for-longer prices and a 300bps interest hike will be painful for businesses to absorb, while a weaker pound will also make imports more expensive. 

Yet, for all the doom and gloom, there are some green shoots. Egypt’s GDP growth is stable, with Capital Economics forecasting GDP growth of 3.5% in 2024-25.  

Tourism – a valuable source of hard currency – is another recent bright spot, with arrivals to Egypt rising 9% in year-on-year terms during the first 19 days of 2024.

Egypt’s tourism numbers, spiking at approximately eight times higher than the global tourism rate of 4.5%, have been pivotal in stimulating overall growth, says property consultancy JLL. Between January and October 2023, Egypt registered about 13.9 million tourist arrivals, almost 36% higher compared to the same period last year.

“This is the medicine [the country] needs to take to lay the foundations for unlocking the economy’s potential in coming years,” says Swanston.

“They have a couple of years of slow economic growth, but if you have got an orthodox policymaking framework with a flexible exchange rate, and you bring the debt ratio down, you can start going about actually taking advantage of very good demographics of a young population.” 

There will be much pain in the interim. But the consensus is that staying the course will lead to better days.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11493190/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Miral commits $3.2bn Yas Island investments

    14 September 2026

    Abu Dhabi’s Miral has announced plans to invest over AED12bn ($3.2bn) in Yas Island over the next five years.

    According to a statement, the investment will fund a pipeline of new projects, as well as expansions and enhancements to existing attractions, supporting Abu Dhabi’s Tourism Strategy 2030.

    The next phase of development will focus on expanding Yas Island’s theme parks and attractions, while introducing new immersive rides and experiences that reflect changing visitor expectations.

    The investment will also strengthen the island’s hospitality offering through additional hotel rooms and enhancements to its overall accommodation portfolio.

    The investment is separate from the previously announced Disney project. 

    Miral recently started the expansion works of its Harry Potter-themed expansion at the Warner Bros World Yas Island entertainment destination in Abu Dhabi.

    The scope of the Warner Bros World phase two expansion includes adding 63,000 square metres (sq m) to the existing theme park.

    This will include a Harry Potter-themed zone with three new rides called Diagon Alley, Hogwarts Castle and The Forbidden Forest, along with retail outlets and food and beverage facilities.

    Yas Waterworld

    Miral has developed a series of theme parks and other entertainment-related attractions on Yas Island, working with several local and international contractors.

    In July last year, Miral opened a new 16,900 sq m expansion of its Yas Waterworld park to the public.

    The expansion added 3.3 kilometres of slide sections to the park. The addition of 18 new rides and attractions, bringing the total number of rides to more than 60, is expected to increase visitor capacity by 20%.

    Construction was carried out by local contractor Alec.

    Disney park

    The Walt Disney Company and Miral signed an agreement in May to build a Disney theme park resort on Yas Island.

    Disney, which is based in the US, said the Abu Dhabi site will be its seventh theme park resort. The others are in California and Florida in the US, Paris in France, Hong Kong and Shanghai in China, and Tokyo in Japan.

    In a statement, Disney noted that the UAE is located within a four-hour flight of one-third of the world’s population, making it a significant gateway for tourism. It is also home to one of the world’s busiest airline hubs, with 120 million passengers travelling through Abu Dhabi and Dubai each year.

    The Disney theme park resort in Abu Dhabi will include entertainment areas, themed accommodations, dining venues and retail experiences.

    In 2023, Miral opened SeaWorld Abu Dhabi, also on Yas Island. Alec was the contractor for the estimated $565m project.

    In 2018, Miral opened the Warner Bros theme park on Yas Island. Belgium’s Besix was the contractor for the estimated $531m project.

    Other Miral projects have included the Etihad Arena and the indoor climbing and skydive centre Clymb. Bam International of the Netherlands was the contractor for the arena and Germany’s Zublin was the contractor for Clymb.

    Yas Island was launched as a project in 2006 by local developer Aldar Properties. The original centrepiece attractions were the Yas Marina Circuit, which hosts Formula 1 motor racing’s annual Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, and the Ferrari World theme park.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19645816/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Contractors prepare bids for Oxagon wastewater plant

    14 September 2026

     

    Contractors are preparing to submit bids to build a wastewater treatment plant for Oxagon, Neom’s industrial cluster.

    The industrial wastewater treatment package will have an initial capacity of 35,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d), supplied in modular trains of 5,000 cm/d each. A separate sanitary wastewater treatment package will have a capacity of 1,000 cm/d.

    The contract is structured as a design-build-operate project and covers the supply, installation and commissioning of industrial and sanitary wastewater treatment packages, as well as three years of operation and maintenance.

    Bids are due on 2 October, a source close to the project told MEED.

    It is understood that Neom’s water utility Enowa issued the request for proposals earlier this year. The plant is designed to provide “interim wastewater treatment” capacity for Neom’s Oxagon Industrial Quarter as industrial development in the area progresses.

    Enowa has described the treatment systems as interim and de-mountable, allowing them to be installed and subsequently removed or relocated as requirements at Oxagon develop. The plant can be expanded to a maximum of 45,000 cm/d.

    The tender documents also state that Neom may consider export credit agency (ECA) financing for the project, with the strength of bidders’ ECA financing proposals forming part of the commercial evaluation.

    The project follows an earlier tender for the Oxagon Village Water Recycling Plant, which was cancelled despite contractors submitting bids in 2024.

    MEED reported at the time that Beijing-based PowerChina, the local Alfanar Company and Cairo-headquartered Orascom had submitted bids for the project. It is understood that these firms are also likely to participate in the latest tender.

    The earlier scheme included truck receiving facilities, pretreatment, biological treatment using food chain reactor technology, tertiary treatment, sludge handling and recycled-water storage.

    The latest procurement appears to represent a reworked approach to wastewater treatment at Oxagon Industrial Quarter, with the previous engineering, procurement and construction scheme replaced by an interim, modular and de-mountable facility.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19640903/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Saudi Arabia shuts East-West oil pipeline after drone strikes

    14 September 2026

    Saudi Arabia has temporarily closed its 1,200-kilometre East-West pipeline after it was targeted by multiple drones launched from Iraq, disrupting one of the kingdom’s most critical energy export routes and threatening global oil supplies already strained by conflict across the region.

    The Ministry of Energy said the pipeline, which connects the Abqaiq oil field in the east to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, was hit in the Riyadh and Medina regions on 12 September. Specialised teams have begun securing the facility and assessing damage. A Foreign Ministry statement said the attack resulted in injuries and “some damage that is currently being addressed”.

    The closure removes about 4 million barrels a day from the global market, representing 4% of world oil supply. The pipeline’s role has become increasingly critical since the US-Iran conflict forced a near-complete shutdown of flows through the Strait of Hormuz in March.

    Saudi Arabia has been using the East-West route to bypass the chokepoint, but the assault has left the kingdom dependent on substantially reduced Hormuz exports and Red Sea shipping routes now threatened by Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen.

    Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi’s office confirmed the drone strike on the East-West Pipeline originated in the Maysan province, which borders Iran. The government formally condemned the attack, announced an investigation into the Maysan operations command and dismissed its commander. No armed group has claimed responsibility, but security analysts attribute the strike to Iran-backed militias operating from Iraqi territory.

    Riyadh said it was not retaliating “at this stage”, choosing instead to support Iraqi efforts to prevent further strikes from its territory. 

    The attack comes amid wider regional upheaval. Houthi forces have rapidly advanced along Yemen’s coast, seizing the strategic Mokha port and the Zuqar Island in the southern Red Sea, moving closer to the Bab El-Mandab strait. Saudi authorities said the group simultaneously launched dozens of drones and missiles at the southern kingdom on 11 September, striking civilian and economic targets and injuring 73 people.

    Oil analysts and traders reported that Yanbu’s storage capacity, estimated at around 35 million barrels, now holds supplies sufficient for only five to seven days of exports without pipeline operations. Storage facilities at Egypt’s Ain Sokhna and Sidi Kerir ports have similar constraints. Repair timelines remain uncertain, with sources citing estimates ranging from days to five or six weeks.

    The dual disruption of both the pipeline and Red Sea shipping has compressed global energy supplies. Energy analysts warned that without pipeline repairs, oil prices could return to the $120-a-barrel peak reached earlier in the regional conflict.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19641513/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • WSP wins Dammam airport expansion design works

    14 September 2026

    WSP Middle East, the regional arm of Canadian engineering firm WSP, has won a design contract to expand King Fahd International airport in Dammam, Saudi Arabia.

    Dammam Airports Company (DACO) awarded the contract.

    The scope includes designing passenger terminal expansions, facility upgrades, and improvements to airport entrances and access roads.

    It also covers the development of baggage-handling systems, digital services and other associated infrastructure.

    The expansion works will be carried out in line with the airport’s approved masterplan, which targets serving more than 19 million passengers a year by 2030.

    The plan also aims to increase air cargo capacity to more than 600,000 tonnes a year and raise aircraft operational capacity to 77 movements per hour, supported by comprehensive expansions to infrastructure, runways and general aviation facilities.

    This contract forms part of DACO’s ongoing efforts to strengthen the airport ecosystem, enhance operational efficiency, and support the Aviation Programme and Saudi Vision 2030 objectives.

    King Fahd International airport is the kingdom’s third-largest airport by annual passenger traffic, behind Jeddah’s King Abdulaziz International and Riyadh’s King Khaled International.

    DACO was formed in July 2017 to manage, operate and develop King Fahd International airport in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province.

    It was established as part of the broader Saudi Vision 2030 privatisation and economic reform programme to corporatise the aviation sector, increase operational efficiency, upgrade infrastructure, and transition state-run airports into commercially viable, world-class regional aviation hubs.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19639910/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Dubai seeks contractors for multibillion-dollar road scheme

    14 September 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dubai’s Roads & Transport Authority (RTA) is seeking contractors to design and build a multibillion-dollar new road that will run parallel to Sheikh Zayed Road.

    MEED understands that the scope covers the construction of about 30 kilometres (km) of works.

    These include about 15km of viaduct along First Al-Khail Street and more than 14.5km of bridge ramps, along with other associated infrastructure works.

    The RTA floated the expression of interest notice to contractors in early September, with a submission deadline of 10 October.

    The project is another significant initiative aimed at alleviating pressure on the existing Sheikh Zayed Road section from Hadiqa Street to Hessa Street.

    Dubai has previously explored bold concepts to expand capacity on Sheikh Zayed Road, including proposals to introduce double-decker sections to add extra lanes without widening the existing corridor.

    The idea was discussed in the context of rising congestion and limited right-of-way along one of the city’s busiest arterial roads, with elevated decks potentially carrying through-traffic while the existing at-grade lanes served local access.

    The plans ultimately progressed as standalone schemes, with subsequent efforts focusing instead on corridor-wide upgrades, interchange improvements and complementary public transport expansions to manage demand more sustainably.

    The latest project aligns with Dubai’s continued investment in upgrading and expanding its road network to keep pace with rapid population growth and rising commuting demand.

    Planning for growth

    Dubai launched the 2040 Urban Master Plan in March 2021, referencing studies indicating that the emirate’s population will reach 5.8 million by 2040, up from 3.3 million in 2020. The daytime population is set to increase from 4.5 million in 2020 to 7.8 million in 2040.

    In December 2022, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, approved the 20-Minute City Policy as part of the second phase of the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan. 

    In addition to the road projects, the RTA’s Dubai Metro Blue Line extension and Dubai Metro Gold Line form part of Dubai’s plans to improve residents’ quality of life by cutting journey times, as outlined in the policy.

    The policy aims for residents to have 80% of their daily requirements within a 20-minute journey, on foot or by bicycle. This goal will be achieved by developing integrated service centres with all necessary facilities and increasing population density around mass transit stations.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19639621/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal