meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

More pain for more gain for Egypt

7 February 2024

This package on Egypt also includes:

> UK and Egypt sign infrastructure agreement
> Familiar realities threaten Egypt’s energy hub ambitions
> Egypt nears fresh loan agreement with IMF
> ADQ and Adnec invest in Egypt hospitality group
> Egypt’s President El Sisi secures third term
> Egypt 2024 country profile and databank 

 

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi might have hoped for a honeymoon period after his resounding election win in December, but has enjoyed not a bit of it.

Egypt started 2024 with an economic crisis gaining in intensity, with events in the Red Sea – sharply reducing traffic through the Suez Canal – compounding other challenges, including a foreign currency (FX) shortage, a depreciating pound on the parallel market and rising inflation.

The president’s words on 24 January were ominous: “Egyptians need to live with economic pain,” he said, indicating that 2024 would be a tough year.

With Egypt’s economic crisis worsening by the week, the siren calls for a support package from the Washington-based IMF have grown ever louder. Expectations are high that a new and larger extended fund facility (EFF) is imminent, with IMF officials visiting Cairo in January to hammer out a deal.

Analysts have suggested the EFF – initially set at $3.9bn – could now be as high as $10bn-$12bn. This increase reflects the desperate situation that Egypt is in.

It is also a sign that Egypt still has a few cards left up its sleeve – not least amid the current crisis in the Middle East that has left it playing a vital role, however ineffectually, as the main conduit for aid deliveries into Gaza.

The Red Sea crisis and the desire to keep a dependable security partner in the region afloat are also factors.

“There is a bit more political willingness to support Egypt than a year ago,” says James Swanston, Middle East and North Africa economist at Capital Economics.

Economic precipice

The immediate backdrop to the renewed EFF negotiations is the sharp deterioration in the value of the pound after a bad 2023 that saw the official rate depreciate by 25% against the dollar.

By the end of January, the pound was trading at £E68-£E70 to the dollar, more than double the official rate of nearly £E30.9 to the dollar. Although the announcement of an imminent deal with the IMF in early February led the pound to rally to £E55 to the dollar on 4 February.

The fiscal headwinds are nevertheless increasingly fierce in 2024. With about 60% of its revenues absorbed by interest payments, according to ratings agency Moody’s, the government has very limited fiscal headroom to respond to such shocks. Cairo’s dilemma is that even if the EFF is raised to the upper limit of $12bn, it will only partially cover its financing needs.

Meanwhile, ratings agencies have been busy downgrading the sovereign. Fitch Ratings cut Egypt’s long-term foreign currency rating to B- from B, with a stable outlook, in November, reflecting its perception of heightened risks to Egypt’s external financing, macroeconomic stability and the trajectory of already-high government debt.

The slow progress on reforms, including the delay in the transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime, has damaged the credibility of exchange rate policy and exacerbated external financing constraints at a time of increasing external government debt repayments, said Fitch.

External financing stresses influenced the downgrading of Egypt, says Paul Gamble, director of the sovereign group at Fitch Ratings.

“There are FX challenges becoming apparent and also concerns over the availability of foreign currency. There are significant black-market transactions and FX shortages, signalling that downward pressures on the currency have increased, and the path to policy adjustment has become more complicated, at a time of high external debt repayments.”

One particular challenge facing Egypt is that Egyptian expatriate remission inflows from the Gulf states have declined, with many getting a better deal on the parallel market than through official channels.

Then there are the Suez Canal revenues, which government officials say fell by 44% in January compared to the same month in 2023.

“The revenue collections from the Suez Canal are a very stable source of income for Egypt, so the fact that they have been hit is a bit of a concern,” says Gamble.

“The impact on investor sentiment and the parallel market rates could further complicate the transition to a more flexible exchange rate. On the other hand, the IMF is talking about upsizing its assistance programme, and Egypt is getting more bilateral attention.”

Next steps forward

Assuming the EFF is finalised, attention will then switch to what comes next.

The strings attached to that package will be substantial, incurring both political and economic costs.

Fiscal policy will see more stringency, with sharp cutbacks on spending. Major projects may lose some support. Yet, while these projects are important for job prospects in Egypt, the IMF’s message is to keep fiscal policy tight for now. 

More stringency on the privatisation drive is also on the menu. Under the country’s divestment programme for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), speculators suggest that up to 150 SOEs may be sold off. However, political sensitivities over the military’s footprint in many of these assets mean delays are possible.

The most important thing in the near term is dealing with the pound, which was in virtual free fall at the end of January, forcing banks to install limits on FX transactions.

According to Capital Economics, if a staff-level agreement is announced, the central bank would move swiftly to devalue the pound by an initial 23%, to £E40 to the dollar, before allowing it to freely float.

“We feel [a rate of £E40-£E43 to the dollar] is a natural level, and it should not result in a fresh inflationary spike, but rather, inflation will fall at a slower rate,” says Swanston.

It was suggested that this could coincide with a sharp hike in interest rates of at least 300 basis points (bps), to 22.25%, and indeed, on 1 February, the central bank went ahead with this, raising the deposit rate to 21.25% and the lending rate to 22.25%.

That said, higher-for-longer prices and a 300bps interest hike will be painful for businesses to absorb, while a weaker pound will also make imports more expensive. 

Yet, for all the doom and gloom, there are some green shoots. Egypt’s GDP growth is stable, with Capital Economics forecasting GDP growth of 3.5% in 2024-25.  

Tourism – a valuable source of hard currency – is another recent bright spot, with arrivals to Egypt rising 9% in year-on-year terms during the first 19 days of 2024.

Egypt’s tourism numbers, spiking at approximately eight times higher than the global tourism rate of 4.5%, have been pivotal in stimulating overall growth, says property consultancy JLL. Between January and October 2023, Egypt registered about 13.9 million tourist arrivals, almost 36% higher compared to the same period last year.

“This is the medicine [the country] needs to take to lay the foundations for unlocking the economy’s potential in coming years,” says Swanston.

“They have a couple of years of slow economic growth, but if you have got an orthodox policymaking framework with a flexible exchange rate, and you bring the debt ratio down, you can start going about actually taking advantage of very good demographics of a young population.” 

There will be much pain in the interim. But the consensus is that staying the course will lead to better days.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11493190/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Wasl Group launches Cedarwood Estates South villas

    21 May 2026

    Dubai-based real estate developer Wasl Group has announced the launch of Cedarwood Estates South, the newest addition to its expanding freehold portfolio in Dubai.

    The project is located within The Next Chapter, Wasl’s development in the Jumeirah Golf Estates area.

    Cedarwood Estates South features 74 villas in four-, five- and six-bedroom layouts.

    The launch follows Wasl Group’s award of a contract to Beijing-headquartered China State Construction Engineering Corporation to develop the overall infrastructure for The Next Chapter.

    The masterplan spans 4.68 million square metres across six districts: Central Park, The Village, Town Centre & Grand Lake, Golf Course North, Golf Course South and Equestrian Village.

    The development will offer 780 villas, 62 mansions, 97 branded residences, 752 estate homes and 10,654 apartments.

    It will also include a five-star Mandarin Oriental resort, a tennis stadium, an 18-hole golf course and academy, an equestrian centre, a school, retail centres and other associated facilities.

    Wasl Group is one of Dubai’s largest real estate development and asset management entities, established in 2008 by the Dubai Real Estate Corporation.

    The company was set up to consolidate and manage a significant portfolio of government-owned real estate assets.

    Headquartered in Dubai, Wasl operates across residential, commercial, hospitality and mixed-use segments, and is known for masterplanned communities and urban regeneration projects.

    Over the years, Wasl has delivered several mid- to large-scale developments and partnered with international hospitality brands through its Wasl Hospitality arm, helping to expand Dubai’s hotel inventory and support the city’s wider tourism and economic growth agenda.

    According to data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects, Wasl Group has a portfolio of over 128 projects, valued at about $18bn.

    Wasl’s major developments include Wasl1, Wasl Gate, Wasl Village and Wasl 51.

    Its asset portfolio includes notable landmarks such as the Mandarin Oriental Hotel, One & Only The Palm, One & Only Royal Mirage, Nikki Beach, Grand Hyatt Dubai, Le Meridien Mina Seyahi Beach Resort & Marina, the Westin Dubai Mina Seyahi Beach Resort & Marina, Dubai Creek Golf & Yacht Club and Emirates Golf Club.

    > Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16936615/main.jpeg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Foundations progressing for Iraq gas gathering project

    21 May 2026

     

    The construction of foundations is ongoing for the $1.61bn project to develop a gas processing complex at Iraq’s Ratawi oil and gas field, according to industry sources.

    In May last year, China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (CPECC) was awarded the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) work for the project.

    The Ratawi gas processing complex is one of four projects constituting Iraq’s Gas Growth Integrated Project (GGIP), which is being developed by French energy major TotalEnergies and its partners. TotalEnergies is the main operator of the GGIP scheme. Basra Oil Company (30%) and QatarEnergy (25%) are the other stakeholders.

    The consortium formalised the investment agreement for the project with the Iraqi government in September 2021.

    The GGIP is estimated to have a total value of $27bn, and the first phase of the project is worth about $10bn.

    When commissioned, the planned facility is expected to process 300 million cubic feet a day (cf/d) of gas. Its capacity is expected to double when a second expansion phase comes online.

    The Ratawi gas processing facility project aims to improve Iraq’s electricity supply by capturing associated gas that would have otherwise been flared at several oil fields, including:

    • Luhais
    • Majnoon
    • Ratawi
    • West Qurna 2
    • Tuba

    Large volumes of gas are flared from these oil fields, causing significant environmental damage. Collecting and processing flared gas will generate increased hydrocarbon revenues and reduce ecological damage.

    The gas tapped and processed from the oil fields will then be used to supply power plants, helping to reduce Iraq’s power import bill.

    As well as supplying to Iraq’s national gas network to generate electricity, the Ratawi gas processing complex will increase the production of gas products, including liquefied petroleum gas and condensates.

    US-based consultant KBR has performed the front-end engineering and design work on the project.

    GGIP masterplan

    The GGIP programme is focused on developing four major projects in Iraq:

    • The Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP)
    • The Ratawi gas processing complex
    • A 1GW solar power project for Iraq’s electricity ministry
    • A field development project at Ratawi, known as the Associated Gas Upstream Project (AGUP)

    The CSSP is designed to support oil production in Iraq’s southern oil and gas fields – mainly Zubair, Rumaila, Majnoon, West Qurna and Ratawi – by delivering treated seawater for injection, a method used to boost crude recovery rates and improve long-term reservoir performance.

    In August last year, TotalEnergies awarded China Energy Engineering International Group the EPC contract for the 1GW solar project at the Ratawi field. A month later, QatarEnergy signed an agreement with TotalEnergies to acquire a 50% interest in the project.

    Civil works and piping work have started for the project to develop a second central processing facility (CPF) at Iraq’s Ratawi oil and gas field as part of the AGUP portion of the GGIP.

    In September, Turkiye’s Enka signed a contract to develop the second CPF at Iraq’s Ratawi field as part of the second phase of the field’s development.

    Enka has yet to give a value for the contract, but it is believed to be worth more than $1bn.

    In November, US-based KBR was selected by Enka to provide detailed design services for the project.

    Enka’s contract covers the engineering, procurement, supply, construction and commissioning of the CPF for the project.

    The aim of the project is to process oil and associated gas from the Ratawi oil field to increase production capacity to 210,000 barrels a day of oil and 154 million standard cf/d of gas.

    The 1GW Ratawi solar scheme will be developed in phases, with each phase coming online between 2025 and 2027. It will have the capacity to provide electricity to about 350,000 homes in Iraq’s Basra region.

    The project, consisting of 2 million bifacial solar panels mounted on single-axis trackers, will include the design, procurement, construction and commissioning of the photovoltaic power station site and 132kV booster station.

    Separately, in June, TotalEnergies awarded China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering an EPC contract worth $294m to build a pipeline as part of a package known as the Ratawi Gas Midstream Pipeline.

    Also, TotalEnergies awarded UK-based consultant Wood Group a pair of engineering framework agreements in April 2025, worth a combined $11m, under the GGIP scheme.

    The agreements have a three-year term under which Wood will support TotalEnergies in advancing the AGUP.

    One of the aims of the AGUP is to debottleneck and upgrade existing facilities to increase production capacity to 120,000 barrels a day of oil on completion of the first phase, according to a statement by Wood.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16934508/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • WEBINAR: Iraq Projects Market 2026

    20 May 2026

    Webinar: Iraq Projects Market 2026 
    Thursday 4 June | 11:00 AM GST  |  Register now

    Agenda:

    • Overview of the Iraq projects market landscape
    • 2025-26 projects market performance
    • Value of work awarded 2026 YTD
    • Assessment of key current and future projects
    • Key drivers, challenges and opportunities
    • Summary of the key clients, contractors and consultants
    • Size of future pipeline by sector and status
    • Ranking of the top contractors and clients
    • Short and long-term market outlook
    • Audience Q&A

    Hosted by: Edward James, head of content and analysis at MEED

    A well-known and respected thought leader in Mena affairs, Edward James has been with MEED for more than 19 years, working as a researcher, consultant and content director. Today, he heads up all content and research produced by the MEED group. His specific areas of expertise are construction, hydrocarbons, power and water, and the petrochemicals market. He is considered one of the world’s foremost experts on the Mena projects market. He is a regular guest commentator on Middle East issues for news channels such as the BBC, CNN and ABC News and is a regular speaker at events in the region. 

    Click here to register

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16925011/main.gif
    Edward James
  • Surbana Jurong to lead Jeddah airport expansion

    20 May 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Singapore-based engineering firm Surbana Jurong is expected to lead the future expansion and development plans of Jeddah Airports Company (Jedco).

    Surbana Jurong's group CEO, Sean Chiao, met with Jedco's CEO, Mazen Bin Mohammed Johar, earlier this week to explore expanded cooperation.

    The meeting focused on leveraging Surbana Jurong’s international expertise in delivering and managing major projects to help King Abdulaziz International airport (KAIA) scale towards more than 90 million passengers annually by 2030.

    Both sides also discussed talent development for Saudi engineers through Surbana Jurong Academy programmes, mentorship and participation in international airport projects, alongside establishing a joint governance framework and progressing towards a memorandum of understanding.

    Surbana Jurong is delivering project management consultancy services for over 100 capital projects at KAIA, valued at SR3bn ($800m).

    These upgrades will boost KAIA’s annual capacity from 29 million to 114 million passengers by 2030, supporting Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and National Aviation Strategy, and enhancing the experience for domestic travellers and millions of Hajj and Umrah pilgrims.

    According to data from regional project tracker MEED Projects, Surbana Jurong is involved in several major projects in the kingdom, including Red Sea Global's Amaala masterplan, the Trojena dams scheme, Oxagon, King Salman International airport and Saudi Arabia Railway's North-South Phosphate Railway 3.

    The firm has also been part of projects in the wider region, including the West Link project, Etihad high-speed rail and Abu Dhabi airport's Midfield Terminal.

    The firm has also secured masterplan project contracts from Abu Dhabi's Department of Municipalities & Transport and Abu Dhabi Ports.

    MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
    > BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
    > UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
    > POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia
    > WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
    > TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure push

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16922013/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Dubai seeks contractors for Metro Gold Line

    20 May 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dubai's Roads & Transport Authority (RTA) has invited contractors to express interest in a contract to build the new Gold Line, as part of its expansion of the Dubai Metro network.

    The notice was issued in mid-May with a submission deadline of 13 June.

    Dubai officially announced the launch of the new Gold Line in April.

    In a post on social media site X, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, UAE Vice President and Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai, said the project will cost about AED34bn ($9.2bn).

    The Gold Line will increase the total length of the Dubai Metro network by 35%.

    The project is scheduled for completion in September 2032.

    The Gold Line will be a fully underground network covering more than 42 kilometres, with 18 stations.

    It will pass through 15 areas in Dubai, benefiting 1.5 million residents.

    The project is expected to provide connectivity to over 55 under-construction real estate development projects.

    The Gold Line will start at Al-Ghubaiba in Bur Dubai and end at Jumeirah Golf Estates.

    It will be connected to Dubai Metro’s existing Red and Green lines and will integrate with the Etihad Rail passenger line.

    The contractor will be responsible for the design and build of all civil works, electromechanical equipment, rolling stock and rail systems.

    The selected contractor will also be required to assist in the systems maintenance and operations during an initial three-year period.

    In October last year, MEED exclusively reported that the RTA had selected US-based engineering firm Aecom to provide consultancy services for the Dubai Metro Gold Line project.

    Stage one covers concept design, stage two covers preliminary design, stage three covers the preparation of tender documents, stage four encompasses construction supervision and stage five covers the defects and liability period.

    MEED’s May 2026 report on the UAE includes:

    > COMMENT: Conflict tests UAE diversification
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: UAE economy absorbs multi-sector shock
    > BANKING: UAE banks ready to weather the storm
    > ATTACKS: UAE counts energy infrastructure costs
    > UPSTREAM: Adnoc builds long-term oil and gas production potential
    > DOWNSTREAM: Adnoc Gas to rally UAE downstream project spending
    > POWER: Large-scale IPPs drive UAE power market
    > WATER: UAE water investment broadens beyond desalination
    > CONSTRUCTION: War casts shadow over UAE construction boom
    > TRANSPORT: UAE rail momentum grows as trade routes face strain

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16919605/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal