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Monthly briefing: 22 key developments in the region

28 September 2022

By Indrajit Sen

> Opec+ agrees minor production increase

> King appoints crown prince as Saudi prime minister

> Lebanon parliament approves $1.2bn draft budget

> Iraq court rules against national oil company

> Libya oil production continues to grow

> President approves Egypt's Olympic plans

> Dubai prepares hydrogen strategy

> GCC central banks raise interest rates

> UK and GCC hold ministerial meeting at the UN

OIL

Oil producers will raise output by 100,000b/d in October

The Opec+ alliance of oil producers decided in September that it would increase oil production by just 100,000 barrels a day (b/d) in October to support crude prices, which have fluctuated in recent weeks amid fears that a global economic recession will curb demand for oil. 

Opec+ members also increased overall oil production by 100,000b/d in September. 

The alliance agreed to increase its July and August crude production by about 50 per cent to 648,000b/d, fully restoring the 5.8 million b/d output that the group had cut at the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Read more

IRAN

Deadly protests follow woman’s death in custody

Thirty-five people have been killed in protests in Iran following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody on 16 September.

Protests have been reported in 31 provinces.

The 22-year-old Amini had been detained for breaking headscarf rules and was reportedly beaten with batons.

Officials said she suffered heart failure and Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi has stated that she was not beaten. 

President Ebrahim Raisi pledged to crack down on the unrest on 24 September.

The official Islamic Republic News Agency reported on 25 September that there had been large-scale demonstrations to condemn the protests.



21 September: Iranian demonstrators take to the streets of Tehran during a protest for Mahsa Amini, days after she died in police custody. Credit: AFP via Getty Images

SALIK IPO

Dubai toll operator raises over $1bn from oversubscribed stock listing

Dubai toll operator Salik raised $1.017bn from its initial public offering (IPO) on the Dubai Financial Market, as part of a series of IPOs of state enterprises aimed at boosting the size of the emirate's capital market.

The IPO was more than 49 times oversubscribed across all tranches, with total gross demand at $50.2bn.

The company had set its offering price at AED2 ($0.54) a share, giving it a valuation of more than $4bn.

The emirate's government sold more than 1.867 billion shares in the company, or 24.9 per cent, up from the previously announced 1.5 billion shares, equivalent to 20 per cent.

ARAB PEACE

Saudi Arabia, Arab League and EU hold meeting in New York

Saudi Foreign Affairs Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud and Arab League secretary-general Ahmed Aboul Gheit attended a meeting of the Arab Peace Initiative Committee and its sponsors in the EU. The meeting took place at the UN General Assembly in New York. 

The Arab Peace Initiative, which Saudi Arabia launched in 2002, is a proposal to end the Arab-Israeli conflict. The members of the Arab Peace Initiative Committee are Jordan, Egypt, Bahrain, Tunisia, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Iraq, Palestine, Qatar, Lebanon, Morocco and Yemen. The initiative is sponsored by Spain, Sweden and France.

GCC

Two years of high oil prices set to improve regional outlook

Rating agency Moody’s Investors Service has said that elevated oil prices during the next two years will lead to a significant improvement in the fiscal and external positions of GCC sovereigns, partly reversing the sharp deterioration in their balance sheets since 2015. 

Improvements in creditworthiness will hinge on the extent to which regional governments utilise the windfall to address constraints posed by their exposure to cyclical oil price and demand volatility, and by longer-term carbon transition risks, Moody’s said.

The agency expects oil prices to average about $105 a barrel in 2022 and $95 a barrel in 2023. As a result, most hydrocarbon-exporting countries in the GCC will run fiscal and current account surpluses, allowing governments to pay down debts, rebuild fiscal reserves and accumulate foreign-currency buffers.

GULF BANKS

Regional banks are returning to pre-pandemic form

After a strong first half, ratings agency S&P Global expects that earnings for most GCC banks will almost reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year amid high oil prices and rising interest rates.

In the second half of 2022, S&P forecasts further strengthening of regional banks’ interest margins and a manageable rise in cost of risk amid lingering effects from the Covid-19 pandemic via loans that benefited from support measures and were then restructured. Combined, these factors will be a net positive for banks’ earnings.

SAUDI ARABIA

Saudi infrastructure and property projects top $1.1tn

The aggregate value of property and infrastructure projects since the launch of Saudi Arabia’s National Transformation Plan in 2016 has crossed $1.1tn as the kingdom continues to diversify its economy, according to real estate consultancy Knight Frank. 

The $500bn Neom city development is the biggest of 15 major projects in Saudi Arabia that are currently at various phases of construction. The kingdom plans to have more than 555,000 residential units, 275,000 hotel rooms, 4.3 million square metres (sq m) of retail and 6.1 million sq m of new office space by 2030. 

The country is also developing several large-scale tourism projects as it seeks to increase the economic contribution of the sector from 3 per cent of GDP to 10 per cent by the end of this decade.

JERUSALEM

UK prime minister considers relocating British embassy

UK Prime Minister Liz Truss is considering moving the British embassy in Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. 

Truss spoke about a possible move to the contested city during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York in September. 

Despite Israel having designated Jerusalem as its capital, Britain has long maintained its embassy in Tel Aviv. 

When he was president of the US, Donald Trump took the controversial decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem in May 2018. 

Both Israelis and Palestinians claim the city as their capital.

SAUDI ARABIA

First Saudi woman to be sent to space in a crewed mission

Saudi Arabia plans to send a woman into space for the first time as part of its new mission programme. 

A crew will be launched next year that will include the first Saudi female pilot and astronaut. 

The kingdom’s astronaut programme aims to produce qualified Saudi citizens who will take part in short- and long-term space flights, as well as participate in scientific experiments, international research and future space-related missions. 

The new programme comes under the umbrella of Saudi Vision 2030 and will fall under the National Space Strategy, the details of which will be announced in the coming months.

FIFA WORLD CUP

Qatar to shut borders to non-World Cup ticket holders

Entry to Qatar will be restricted from 1 November to citizens, residents and holders of the World Cup Hayya card, the tournament’s organising committee has announced. 

The suspension of visits by people not attending Fifa World Cup matches will continue until 23 December, five days after the final match takes place in Doha. 

The restrictions apply to all air, land and sea borders into Qatar. 

Football fans in possession of a match ticket for the World Cup must also apply for a Hayya entry permit – a pre-approved digital visa linked to a passport that offers free public transport around the country. 

The Hayya card allows entry into Qatar until 23 January 2023. 

Qatari citizens and residents, GCC citizens holding a Qatari identification card, holders of work entry permits and personal visas, and approved humanitarian cases will be exempt from the restrictions.
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  • Israeli offensive leaves Beirut in limbo

    5 June 2026

     

    Lebanon is being held in economic and political limbo by Israel’s open-ended offensive in the south, which has killed more than 3,500 people since March and is characterised by strategic objectives that offer no clear end in sight.

    Political leaders in Tel Aviv are justifying the operation on the grounds of eliminating Hezbollah – a far‑fetched goal against a dispersed guerrilla organisation, as with Hamas in Gaza – while ignoring overtures from Lebanon’s leadership for a ceasefire.

    The recently formed Lebanese government, meanwhile, continues to look impotent: unable to secure its territory from Israeli incursions or Hezbollah activity, and unable to deliver on promises of stability, reform, IMF funding and reconstruction.

    Echoes of the past

    The overarching shape of Israel’s military campaign is ominously familiar, echoing the 1978, 1982, 1985 and 2006 Israeli invasions of southern Lebanon – all entailing creeping encroachment without strategic resolution.

    Since fighting resumed on 2 March 2026, Israeli forces have gradually pushed north, crossing north of the Litani for the first time since the 2006 Lebanon war and seizing Beaufort Castle above Nabatieh on 31 May.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has framed the goal as establishing a “security zone” – the same term and concept Israel used to justify the occupation of a roughly 800-square-kilometre belt of southern Lebanon from 1985 to 2000.

    That occupation was a debacle for Israel’s military and ended in unilateral withdrawal.

    Israeli analysts are already drawing the modern parallels as the cost of holding ground in southern Lebanon rises, driven by Hezbollah’s deployment of cheap fibre‑optic first‑person‑view (FPV) drones that inflict a steady drip of Israeli casualties and losses.

    As with Russia in Ukraine, Tel Aviv is being tactically embarrassed by the advent of these fibre‑optic drones, which are immune to jamming and – of particular concern to Israeli forces – are too small to be reliably detected and intercepted by conventional counter‑drone systems.

    This leap in Hezbollah’s operational threat – based on cheap technology that can be locally assembled – has sharply raised the price of maintaining a military presence in the country.

    In an attempt to exact a retaliatory price, Israel’s air strikes rose by 110% between 19-22 May and 23-26 May as Hezbollah’s drone successes accumulated, according to conflict monitor Acled. But the underlying tactical dilemma remains.

    Israeli politicians, irate at the situation, have demanded escalation and intensified strikes on civilian areas, including in Beirut  – only to face US pushback.

    Tehran as the lever

    Planned strikes on Beirut, including on 3 June, have been held off in recent weeks under pressure from Washington after Tehran made Lebanon a bargaining chip in its wider negotiations with the US, repeatedly suspending talks following Israeli escalation in the Levant country.

    Tehran has also gone further than walkouts, warning it could respond directly if Israel strikes Beirut – adding an explicit threat of retaliation to diplomatic pressure.

    With a Gulf ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz both riding on the outcome, Washington is strongly motivated to keep Israel from striking Beirut.

    In this way, Iran is one of the few powers wielding any leverage over Israel’s actions in Lebanon – even if that leverage is a source of discomfort for Lebanon’s leaders, for whom Tehran’s clout contrasts starkly with their own lack of influence.

    That protection nevertheless remains narrowly tied to the Lebanese capital, with Washington turning a blind eye to Israel’s ongoing destruction of civilian infrastructure in Lebanon’s south.

    Within the border belt that Tel Aviv has dubbed the “yellow line” – amounting to about 7% of Lebanese territory – Israeli forces have accelerated the demolition of villages since the April truce and barred residents from returning.

    More than a million people, overwhelmingly Shia from the south and the Bekaa, have been displaced since March, and UN human-rights experts have pointed to the blanket evacuation orders and levelling of housing as mirroring Israel’s conduct in Gaza.

    The Lebanese state remains trapped in inaction, partially of its own making. Beirut was initially close to indifferent to renewed strikes on Hezbollah, whose unilateral re-entry into the war it had condemned for endangering the state.

    But as the strikes have shifted methodically towards civilian areas, Beirut’s restraint satisfies no one: the domestic audience wants protection, while Israel and the US want decisive Lebanese army action against Hezbollah.

    Yet the Lebanese army – still adhering in spirit to the November 2024 ceasefire framework and loath to move seriously against Hezbollah for fear of stoking civil war – has remained aloof from the conflict.

    Parliament speaker Nabih Berri, who is close to Hezbollah and maintains dialogue with the group, says it would honour a genuine ceasefire if only Washington could deliver one.

    But repeated attempts to shore up the ceasefire have remained conditional on the Lebanese army stepping up to rein in Hezbollah, while failing to guarantee an end to Israel’s destruction of civilian structures in areas it is occupying.

    On 3 June, a fourth round of US‑mediated trilateral talks produced a fresh ceasefire announcement, hailed in Washington as a step towards comprehensive peace.

    Yet its conditions – a complete halt to Hezbollah fire, the group’s withdrawal south of the Litani and Lebanese army control of undefined “pilot zones”– merely reiterate past failed protocols. The declaration was unsigned by Hezbollah and unenforceable by Beirut.

    Within hours, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem rejected the declaration, stating that any ceasefire must cover the south and begin with Israeli withdrawal, not Hezbollah’s.

    Both Israeli strikes and Hezbollah attacks have continued since the ostensible deal.

    Recovery on hold

    The economic cost to Lebanon, meanwhile, compounds by the day. The country entered 2026 already in crisis: cumulative GDP down close to 40% since 2019, the pound down 98%, public debt at 150% of GDP, and reserves as low as $11bn as of June 2025.

    The government of President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam staked its credibility on a long‑deadlocked IMF programme finally unlocking external support. The war has upended this, driving away investment and delaying reform.

    The World Bank’s November 2024 assessment – covering only the previous round of fighting, before the March resumption – placed the economic cost at $14bn and recovery needs at $11bn, figures that the current war is now inflating by the day.

    Lebanon’s Bank Audi has warned of zero growth this year if the war continues, versus a pre‑escalation projection of reconstruction‑led recovery. Tourism, historically a fifth of the economy and the engine of the 2024 rebound, has been the biggest casualty.

    Looking ahead, no reconstruction can be financed while the destruction continues, and no IMF programme can advance while the state cannot ensure stability.

    Iran’s leverage may be keeping the bombs off Beirut, but the south’s entrenchment as a war zone is only deepening – with hopes for recovery receding further with every village levelled.

    While the costly occupation is imposing a rising political price on the Israeli government that may, in time, bring it to an end, this will be little consolation for those displaced – many of whom now have no communities to return to, and homes built over decades that are gone.

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  • Morocco tenders Falit dam project

    5 June 2026

    Morocco’s Ministry of Equipment & Water has opened an international tender for the construction of the Falit dam in Figuig province.

    According to local media reports, the project has an estimated budget of MD428m ($46m), with commissioning expected between 2029 and 2030.

    The bid submission deadline is 15 July.

    The dam will be built on the Moulouya River north of Bouarfa in eastern Morocco. The roller-compacted concrete structure will be 59 metres high and have a storage capacity of 25 million cubic metres.

    The project is intended to provide drinking water supplies, support agricultural irrigation and enhance flood protection in the region.

    Figuig is one of Morocco’s driest regions. It is also vulnerable to flash floods caused by sporadic but intense rainfall events.

    Reported ministry data indicates that annual flows at the project site can reach 40.8 million cubic metres in wet years. Long-term average flows are estimated at about 10.3 million cubic metres a year.

    The dam will include a spillway and a bottom outlet equipped with a 1,500-millimetre pipe. The outlet will have a discharge capacity of 28 cubic metres a second and will allow the reservoir to be emptied within 15 days if required.

    Morocco dam infrastructure

    The Figuig region is also home to the Kheng Grou dam project, which is designed to have a storage capacity of 1.07 billion cubic metres.

    According to regional project tracker MEED Projects, the dam is on track to be completed by the end of the year.

    Morocco-headquartered Bioui Travaux is the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor for the project, valued at $96m. 

    Another local firm Novec is acting as the main contractor on the project.

    The Falit dam tender comes as Morocco continues to invest in new dams, desalination plants and water transfer schemes to address growing pressure on water resources.

    The country currently has over $13bn-worth of dam projects under construction, the largest of which is the Ratba dam project in the province of Taounate.

    Construction is also set to begin on the $238m Bou Ahmed Dam project, covering 259 hectares, in the province of Chefchaouen. According to MEED Projects data, this was the only major dam contract awarded last year.

    The joint venture of Societe Generale des Travaux du Maroc and Stam Morocco, a subsidiary of the TGCC group, will carry out EPC works on the project.

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  • Saudi Energy commissions 2.5GW battery storage project

    5 June 2026

    Saudi Energy, formerly Saudi Electricity Company, has commissioned a major 2.5GW battery energy storage project across five regions in Saudi Arabia.

    The project, which serves power grids in Riyadh, Rabigh, Dawadmi, Jouf and Qassim, completed all grid-tied charging and discharging tests at the end of May, said Chinese supplier NR Electric in a statement.

    National Grid Saudi Arabia, a wholly owned subsidiary of Saudi Energy, awarded Saudi firm Alfanar Company and China’s BYD Energy Storage the contract to build and install five battery energy storage system (bess) facilities with a total combined installed capacity of up to 2,500MW, equivalent to a rated capacity of up to 12,500 megawatt-hours, in January 2025.

    Alfanar was appointed as the project’s engineering, procurement and construction contractor, while BYD Energy Storage was responsible for the design, supply, supervision of installation, testing and commissioning, and maintenance of the bess plants.

    The 12.5 gigawatt-hour (GWh) project is the world’s largest grid-scale energy storage deployment, requiring 2,364 system cabinets in total.

    NR Electric said it supplied the project’s grid-forming control technology and more than 2,000 power conversion system units.

    The main applications for the planned bess facilities include load shifting, black start, frequency regulation and voltage support.

    They are expected to replace part-load operation of existing power plants by charging and discharging electricity according to system load variations and primary and secondary reserves, among other potential applications.

    Shenzhen-based BYD previously announced that the five bess plants would take its total deployments in Saudi Arabia to about 15.1GWh.

    It deployed its bess products on Saudi Arabia’s first on-grid bess plant in Bisha, one of 17 projects globally with a capacity of over 1GWh that entered operations in 2024.

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  • Kuwait prepares to tender refinery project deal

    5 June 2026

    State-owned downstream operator Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) has announced that it is preparing to tender a contract to develop a gauging system for a tank farm at the Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery.

    The system will replace an older, now obsolete system at the South Liquid Tank Farm.

    The contract will include engineering, procurement, construction, testing and commissioning of the new gauging system.

    KNPC is planning to invite 24 companies to participate in the bidding process.

    These are:

    • JGC Corporation (Japan)
    • Almeer Technical Services Co. (Kuwait)
    • CTCI Corporation (Taiwan)
    • Kellogg Brown & Root (US)
    • Kentz Overseas (UAE)
    • IMCO Engineering & Construction Company (Kuwait)
    • National Petroleum Construction Company (UAE)
    • Sinopec Luoyang Engineering (China)
    • Sinopec Engineering Incorporation (China)
    • Tecnicas Reunidas (Spain)
    • SK Ecoplant (South Korea)
    • Gulf Spic General Trading & Contracting Company (Kuwait)
    • Hyundai Engineering (South Korea)
    • Enppi (Egypt)
    • Hyundai Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
    • Saipem (Italy)
    • Technip Energies (France)
    • Larsen & Toubro (India)
    • Hanwha Engineering & Construction Corporation (South Korea)
    • Sinopec Engineering Group (China)
    • Samsung E&A (South Korea)
    • Daewoo Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
    • Fluor (US)
    • Hyundai Heavy Industries (South Korea)

    If a company has not been included in the list and would like to participate in the tender, it can file a complaint with the chairman of Kuwait’s Higher Purchase Committee within 30 days.

    The Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery has been attacked and damaged as part of the regional war that broke out after the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February.

    Several units were shut down at Kuwait’s largest oil refinery after it was hit by drones and fires broke out in the morning of 20 March 2026.

    The refinery normally processes about 730,000 barrels of oil a day.

    Kuwait’s oil and gas sector has been severely disrupted by the ongoing regional conflict, which has led to a dramatic drop in crude exports via the Strait of Hormuz.

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  • Kuwait tenders downstream consultancy contract

    5 June 2026

    State-owned downstream operator Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) has tendered a consultancy contract focused on a liquid sulphur degassing facility for four sulphur recovery units at the Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery.

    This type of unit removes dissolved hydrogen sulphide and other sulphur compounds from molten sulphur before it is stored, loaded onto trucks, or exported.

    This makes the sulphur safer to handle and reduces emissions.

    A total of 21 companies have been invited to participate in the tender.

    These are:

    • Asprofos Single Member Engineering Societe Anonyme (Greece)
    • Enereco (Italy)
    • EPC Constructions India (India)
    • Engineering for the Petroleum & Process Industries (Enppi) (Egypt)
    • Gulf Spic General Trading & Contracting Company (Kuwait)
    • Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding Company (Kuwait)
    • ILF Consulting Engineers (Austria)
    • Larsen & Toubro (India)
    • Litwin PEL (UAE)
    • Mott MacDonald (UK)
    • National Petroleum Construction Company (UAE)
    • Penspen International (UK)
    • Petro6 Engineering & Construction (India)
    • Petrocil Engineers & Consultants Pvt. (India)
    • PL Engineering (India)
    • Processes Unlimited (US)
    • Tebodin (Netherlands)
    • Technip Energies France (France)
    • Tecnicas Reunidas (Spain)
    • Triune Energy Services (India)
    • Toyo Engineering Corporation (Japan)

    A pre-tender meeting for the project is scheduled for 8 June 2026, and the bid closing date is 25 June 2026.

    The Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery has been attacked and damaged as part of the regional war that broke out after the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February.

    Several units were shut down at Kuwait’s largest oil refinery after it was hit by drones and fires broke out in the morning of 20 March 2026.

    The refinery normally processes about 730,000 barrels of oil a day.

    Kuwait’s oil and gas sector has been severely disrupted by the ongoing regional conflict, which has led to a dramatic drop in crude exports via the Strait of Hormuz.

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