Monthly briefing: 22 key developments in the region
28 September 2022
By Indrajit Sen
> Opec+ agrees minor production increase
> King appoints crown prince as Saudi prime minister
> Lebanon parliament approves $1.2bn draft budget
> Iraq court rules against national oil company
> Libya oil production continues to grow
> President approves Egypt's Olympic plans
> Dubai prepares hydrogen strategy
> GCC central banks raise interest rates
> UK and GCC hold ministerial meeting at the UN
OIL
Oil producers will raise output by 100,000b/d in October
The Opec+ alliance of oil producers decided in September that it would increase oil production by just 100,000 barrels a day (b/d) in October to support crude prices, which have fluctuated in recent weeks amid fears that a global economic recession will curb demand for oil.
Opec+ members also increased overall oil production by 100,000b/d in September.
The alliance agreed to increase its July and August crude production by about 50 per cent to 648,000b/d, fully restoring the 5.8 million b/d output that the group had cut at the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Read more
IRAN
Deadly protests follow woman’s death in custody
Thirty-five people have been killed in protests in Iran following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody on 16 September.
Protests have been reported in 31 provinces.
The 22-year-old Amini had been detained for breaking headscarf rules and was reportedly beaten with batons.
Officials said she suffered heart failure and Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi has stated that she was not beaten.
President Ebrahim Raisi pledged to crack down on the unrest on 24 September.
The official Islamic Republic News Agency reported on 25 September that there had been large-scale demonstrations to condemn the protests.
21 September: Iranian demonstrators take to the streets of Tehran during a protest for Mahsa Amini, days after she died in police custody. Credit: AFP via Getty Images
SALIK IPO
Dubai toll operator raises over $1bn from oversubscribed stock listing
Dubai toll operator Salik raised $1.017bn from its initial public offering (IPO) on the Dubai Financial Market, as part of a series of IPOs of state enterprises aimed at boosting the size of the emirate's capital market.
The IPO was more than 49 times oversubscribed across all tranches, with total gross demand at $50.2bn.
The company had set its offering price at AED2 ($0.54) a share, giving it a valuation of more than $4bn.
The emirate's government sold more than 1.867 billion shares in the company, or 24.9 per cent, up from the previously announced 1.5 billion shares, equivalent to 20 per cent.
ARAB PEACE
Saudi Arabia, Arab League and EU hold meeting in New York
Saudi Foreign Affairs Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud and Arab League secretary-general Ahmed Aboul Gheit attended a meeting of the Arab Peace Initiative Committee and its sponsors in the EU. The meeting took place at the UN General Assembly in New York.
The Arab Peace Initiative, which Saudi Arabia launched in 2002, is a proposal to end the Arab-Israeli conflict. The members of the Arab Peace Initiative Committee are Jordan, Egypt, Bahrain, Tunisia, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Iraq, Palestine, Qatar, Lebanon, Morocco and Yemen. The initiative is sponsored by Spain, Sweden and France.
GCC
Two years of high oil prices set to improve regional outlook
Rating agency Moody’s Investors Service has said that elevated oil prices during the next two years will lead to a significant improvement in the fiscal and external positions of GCC sovereigns, partly reversing the sharp deterioration in their balance sheets since 2015.
Improvements in creditworthiness will hinge on the extent to which regional governments utilise the windfall to address constraints posed by their exposure to cyclical oil price and demand volatility, and by longer-term carbon transition risks, Moody’s said.
The agency expects oil prices to average about $105 a barrel in 2022 and $95 a barrel in 2023. As a result, most hydrocarbon-exporting countries in the GCC will run fiscal and current account surpluses, allowing governments to pay down debts, rebuild fiscal reserves and accumulate foreign-currency buffers.
GULF BANKS
Regional banks are returning to pre-pandemic form
After a strong first half, ratings agency S&P Global expects that earnings for most GCC banks will almost reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year amid high oil prices and rising interest rates.
In the second half of 2022, S&P forecasts further strengthening of regional banks’ interest margins and a manageable rise in cost of risk amid lingering effects from the Covid-19 pandemic via loans that benefited from support measures and were then restructured. Combined, these factors will be a net positive for banks’ earnings.
SAUDI ARABIA
Saudi infrastructure and property projects top $1.1tn
The aggregate value of property and infrastructure projects since the launch of Saudi Arabia’s National Transformation Plan in 2016 has crossed $1.1tn as the kingdom continues to diversify its economy, according to real estate consultancy Knight Frank.
The $500bn Neom city development is the biggest of 15 major projects in Saudi Arabia that are currently at various phases of construction. The kingdom plans to have more than 555,000 residential units, 275,000 hotel rooms, 4.3 million square metres (sq m) of retail and 6.1 million sq m of new office space by 2030.
The country is also developing several large-scale tourism projects as it seeks to increase the economic contribution of the sector from 3 per cent of GDP to 10 per cent by the end of this decade.
JERUSALEM
UK prime minister considers relocating British embassy
UK Prime Minister Liz Truss is considering moving the British embassy in Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
Truss spoke about a possible move to the contested city during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York in September.
Despite Israel having designated Jerusalem as its capital, Britain has long maintained its embassy in Tel Aviv.
When he was president of the US, Donald Trump took the controversial decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem in May 2018.
Both Israelis and Palestinians claim the city as their capital.
SAUDI ARABIA
First Saudi woman to be sent to space in a crewed mission
Saudi Arabia plans to send a woman into space for the first time as part of its new mission programme.
A crew will be launched next year that will include the first Saudi female pilot and astronaut.
The kingdom’s astronaut programme aims to produce qualified Saudi citizens who will take part in short- and long-term space flights, as well as participate in scientific experiments, international research and future space-related missions.
The new programme comes under the umbrella of Saudi Vision 2030 and will fall under the National Space Strategy, the details of which will be announced in the coming months.
FIFA WORLD CUP
Qatar to shut borders to non-World Cup ticket holders
Entry to Qatar will be restricted from 1 November to citizens, residents and holders of the World Cup Hayya card, the tournament’s organising committee has announced.
The suspension of visits by people not attending Fifa World Cup matches will continue until 23 December, five days after the final match takes place in Doha.
The restrictions apply to all air, land and sea borders into Qatar.
Football fans in possession of a match ticket for the World Cup must also apply for a Hayya entry permit – a pre-approved digital visa linked to a passport that offers free public transport around the country.
The Hayya card allows entry into Qatar until 23 January 2023.
Qatari citizens and residents, GCC citizens holding a Qatari identification card, holders of work entry permits and personal visas, and approved humanitarian cases will be exempt from the restrictions.
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Saudi firm to build Al-Henakiyah solar IPP grid link
1 June 2026
Saudi Services for Electro Mechanic Works has won the main contract to build a 380kV overhead transmission line in Saudi Arabia’s Medina region, according to market sources.
The project includes the construction of a 354-kilometre-long overhead transmission line that will connect the Al-Henakiyah 3 solar independent power producer (IPP) to several main substations and export power from the plant into the national transmission network.
The scheme is being developed by Saudi Energy, formerly Saudi Electricity Company.
The scope covers the supply and erection of transmission towers and foundations, as well as associated grid interface and termination works.
The Al-Henakiyah 3 solar IPP is part of Saudi Arabia’s wider pipeline of utility-scale solar projects being developed under the Public Investment Fund’s (PIF’s) renewables programme, which runs parallel to the National Renewable Energy Programme (NREP), now in its seventh round.
In 2025, the PIF outlined plans to advance second- and third-phase extensions to five existing solar plants, including Al-Henakiyah, totalling 9GW of additional capacity.
According to official documents, the negotiation process for the directly-awarded concessions was due to start last year.
Saudi Services for Electro Mechanic Works, meanwhile, is continuing to advance several transmission line projects for Saudi Energy.
In June 2025, it was appointed as the main contractor to build a separate 380kV overhead transmission line linking the 2GW Afif 1 solar IPP to the national grid.
Works on this project are not expected to be completed until at least 2027.
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Petrofac completes sale of Abu Dhabi business unit
1 June 2026
UK-headquartered Petrofac has completed the sale of Petrofac Emirates, a business unit it established in Abu Dhabi in 2008.
The unit has been bought by a consortium of financial investors led by the New York-headquartered hedge fund Mason Capital Management and UK-based asset management firm Pearlstone Alternative.
In a statement, Petrofac said the sale was completed after the satisfaction of all required conditions and approvals.
The business unit was originally founded with a strategy to provide engineering, design, procurement and construction services for oil, gas, refining, petrochemical and renewable energy projects.
Petrofac Emirates has engineering and construction (E&C) capability and includes E&C teams based in the UAE and India.
In its latest statement, Petrofac said: “Petrofac Emirates encompasses Petrofac’s core E&C capability in the UAE.
“The transaction positions Petrofac Emirates as a strong, self-sustaining company with no funded debt on its balance sheet and substantial growth opportunities.”
Leadership role
Under current plans, Tareq Kawash, who has been the group chief executive of Petrofac since April 2023, will become the chief executive of Petrofac Emirates to lead the E&C business through its next phase under new ownership.
Kawash has over 30 years of international leadership experience at engineering procurement and construction (EPC) companies.
Prior to working at Petrofac, he was a senior vice-president at McDermott International.
Following the completion of the sale, Afonso Reis e Sousa will step down as group chief financial officer of Petrofac.
Commenting on the sale of Petrofac Emirates, Kawash said: “The completion of this transaction marks an important milestone for Petrofac Emirates and the beginning of an important new chapter for the business.
“Under our new ownership structure, with a focused platform for growth, we are well-positioned to build on our track record, strengthen our long-standing customer relationships and pursue new opportunities across the wider Mena region.
“The transaction is not the destination; it is the platform from which we move forward with confidence, discipline and ambition.”
Sam Read, a partner at Mason, said: “Our mission is to empower Petrofac Emirates to achieve its strategic goals, capitalise on new market opportunities, and leverage significant growth potential in the dynamic energy EPC sector.
“Petrofac Emirates has market-leading capabilities and an unmatched track record of delivering for its customers, and we look forward to partnering with the company to help drive continued success.”
The sale of Petrofac Emirates follows the completion of the sale of Petrofac Asset Solutions in April.
In December, it was announced that US-based CB&I had entered into a sale agreement to buy the unit.
Petrofac’s asset solutions unit provides operations, maintenance and decommissioning services for onshore and offshore energy assets.
In a statement, CB&I said that the acquisition would strengthen its portfolio with “a complementary reimbursable contracting model business, delivering predictable cash flow and enhancing service capabilities”.
Restructuring disruption
Amid Petrofac’s dramatic restructuring, there has been disruption to progress at some of the company’s projects.
In March, MEED reported that Petrofac, along with its partner China Huanqiu Contracting & Engineering Corporation (HQCEC), had stopped work on a petrochemicals project in Algeria, valued at approximately $1.5bn.
The news about the Algeria project came just over two weeks after MEED reported that Petrofac had also stopped work on an oil project in Libya and cut staff in the North African country.
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Chinese-Saudi joint venture to build 18GWh battery storage plant
1 June 2026
China-headquartered ZOE Energy Storage has announced it has signed a joint-venture agreement with a Saudi partner to develop a battery energy storage system (bess) manufacturing facility in the kingdom.
The facility will be developed in two phases. The first phase will have an annual production capacity of 6GWh and is scheduled to begin operations in the first quarter of 2027.
A second phase will increase the total production capacity to 18GWh.
In a statement, ZOE said the manufacturing facility will cover 150 acres and will be built to European manufacturing standards.
The location and the partner involved have not been publicly disclosed.
The Saudi facility will be the Chinese company’s second overseas manufacturing base, following a 6GWh energy storage system manufacturing facility in Hungary. This was developed with Energy Pro Hungary and began operations in October 2025.
Under Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 objectives, the kingdom plans to deploy 130GW of renewable energy capacity and 48GWh of energy storage and achieve 50% clean power generation.
In May, Saudi Arabia’s principal buyer, Saudi Power Procurement Company, received statements of qualification from firms seeking to build, own and operate a second group of bess projects with a combined power capacity of 3GW.
The programme comprises six independent storage provider projects with a total capacity of 3GW, equivalent to 12,000 megawatt-hours based on a four-hour storage duration.
The main contract tender is expected to be issued in the coming months once firms are formally prequalified.
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Middle East stocks recover unevenly
1 June 2026
The combined market capitalisation of the MEED Top 100 largest listed companies in the Middle East and North Africa rose to $3.73tn in mid-May 2026, against $3.48tn a year earlier – a 7.2% gain that recovers most of the value lost in the prior two years’ editions. The aggregate is not the story.
Saudi Aramco recovered by $181bn, rising from $1.64tn to $1.82tn and providing substantial support to the aggregate Top 100 valuation. The broader movements in the list differentiated along sectoral lines, with key trends including the continued growth of regional banks, the upward repricing for fertiliser and logistics names amid the Hormuz crisis, and the correction of Saudi mid-tier stocks as valuation peaks have failed to hold.
Oil and gas reweights
Aramco’s share price recovered from about SR25 to SR30, lifting the company’s market cap by 11% and raising the oil and gas sector’s share of the list back to 54.5%.
The company reported first-quarter 2026 net profit of $32.5bn, up 25%, on revenue of $115.5bn – giving it a price-to-earnings ratio of about 18, in line with the Saudi market average as of April.
Aramco’s diversion of crude to Yanbu through its 7 million-barrels-a-day West-to-East pipeline has supported a higher volume of sales at the now elevated prices compared to its Gulf peers, the exports of which have been more seriously affected by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Other Saudi names also benefiting from this combination of ongoing access through Yanbu and energy repricing produced the cleanest gains, with Rabigh Refining more than doubling in value to $11.7bn despite a $1.1bn loss, Ades Holding rising 40% to $5.8bn, Luberef rising 28% to $5.8bn and Yansab also seeing double-digit returns.
In the UAE, by contrast, Adnoc Gas has remained broadly flat at $66.7bn, with its Q1 2026 net income dropping 15% and conflict damage estimates indicating that full capacity will not be restored until 2027. Borouge meanwhile held, while Adnoc Drilling and Adnoc Distribution gained by 14% and 8%, respectively.
There was some slippage in the petrochemicals sub-cluster, with Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) posting a net loss of $6.96bn and sliding 3%, alongside a 2% slide for the energy sector-adjacent Industries Qatar.
Banking and industry
The banking sector, which accounts for 33 of the 100 entries and 18% of the list by value, expanded by an aggregate 6.3% in absolute terms. Al-Rajhi Bank, the largest banking entry at $107.9bn, reported FY2025 net profit up 26% to SR24.8bn ($6.6bn); total assets passed SR1tn for the first time and Q1 2026 net profit rose a further 14%.
Emirates NBD, up 23% year-on-year to $47.1bn, reported FY2025 record profit before tax of AED29.8bn ($8.1bn) and likewise crossed AED1tn in total assets.
Kuwait Finance House also rose by 19%, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank 19% to $28.7bn and Saudi National Bank 11%. Qatar National Bank stalled and slid 1%, while several smaller banks saw gains. Egypt’s Commercial International Bank rose 74% to $8.4bn off a depressed base, Jordan’s Arab Bank meanwhile rose 55%, Oman’s Bank Muscat by 52% and RakBank by 32%.
Several sectors have gained significantly owing to their direct exposure to the Iran conflict’s supply-chain repricing, including logistics, fertilisers and mining.
Logistics firms in the list gained 44% in absolute terms, with Saudi Arabia’s Bahri reporting Q1 2026 net profits up 303% year and revenue up 129%.
Marsa Maroc, the Casablanca-listed port operator, also entered the list at $6.6bn, up 85% on an African expansion that spans 34 terminals across 20 ports following a Liberia management deal signed in February.
Adnoc Logistics rose 32% to $11.6bn, while Air Arabia, the Sharjah-based low-cost carrier, joined the list at $6.1bn as it absorbed redirected long-haul flows. Nakilat, the Qatari liquefied natural gas shipping operator, was the sector’s sole softener, down 12% on slower throughput.
Mining and fertiliser entries sit alongside the logistics gainers. Jordan Phosphate Mines is the cleanest single expression of the post-Hormuz repricing visible on the list – up 127% year on year to $13.2bn, as the World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook projects fertiliser prices to rise nearly 31% in 2026.
Maaden rose 23% to $65.3bn after FY2025 net profit jumped 156%, backed by record phosphate production; high aluminium output; and rising silver, copper and aluminium prices linked to artificial intelligence, data centre, solar and electric vehicle demand.
Morocco’s Managem also entered the list at $19.7bn, having almost tripled in value in the past two years on cobalt, silver and copper prices and African expansion.
Sabic Agri-Nutrients rose 44% on a 30% 2025 net profit increase, while Fertiglobe rose by 40% – both potentially anticipating a 60% forecasted rise in urea prices.
Property and other trends
The direction of the property and real estate sector has been uniformly downward. The Iran conflict has driven both a slump in UAE property sales and prices and a similar tourism-adjacent correction in Saudi Arabia. Both the Mecca-focused Umm Al-Qura and Jabal Omar development firms have seen their valuations slashed by more than a third, while Makkah Construction & Development slid by 15%.
The UAE’s Emaar Properties and Dar Al-Arkan and Qatar’s Ezdan Holding have also all seen slides of more than 15%. Kuwait’s Mabanee, which rose by 22%, is the one exception in the sector.
In Saudi Arabia’s mid-tier, Acwa Power shed 29% in value even as its revenue rose 18% and its net income 5.4%. Elm Company likewise shed 33%, Dr Sulaiman Al-Habib 19% and the Saudi Tadawul Group 21%.
Mouwasat Medical Services, MBC Group, Nahdi Medical and Saudi Logistics Services fell out of the list entirely on the same trajectory. Each had reported FY2025 earnings rises before the decline. What corrected was the valuation, not the operations.
Acwa Power’s trailing four-quarter average price-to-earnings ratio was 166x, and even after this year’s decline sits at 88x against the Saudi market average of 17.8x. Elm sits at 26x, Al-Habib at 33x, Saudi Tadawul Group at 42x – all rich by any comparable benchmark.
Many of these entries have fallen away from their peak valuations as the cooling of the gigaproject programme since early 2025 has undermined sentiment.
One example that sits on the same axis from the UAE side is Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa), which fell by 28% from $95.3bn to $69.0bn despite a 6% net income rise, even as capital expenditure also expanded by 50%.
There are now nine entries from Morocco’s Casablanca bourse against six a year ago, with an aggregate value of $74.7bn, up from $50.8bn. Industrial contractor Societe Generale des Travaux du Maroc,entered via a December 2025 initial public offering (IPO). Several Moroccan stocks have also slipped, however, including Taqa Morocco, down 42%; Maroc Telecom, down 18%; Banque Populaire, down 13%; and Bank of Africa, down 10%.
There has been a similarly divergent trend among 2024 IPO entrants. While OQ Exploration & Production rose 68% to $10.1bn and is now the largest stock on the Muscat Securities Market, the UAE’s Talabat – 2024’s second-largest IPO at $9.2bn – has corrected 33% to $6.1bn.
The Multiply Group has been replaced on the list through its November 2025 merger into 2PointZero Group, which now sits in the top 30 entries at $19.6bn.
Regional repricing
Four trends underpin the list’s 7.2% recovery. The conflict has repriced specific cohorts sharply higher – logistics up 44%, mining and fertilisers up 43%, the Yanbu refiners returning, and Aramco recovering to $181bn – with gains contingent on the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed.
Regional banks have maintained last year’s momentum, with assets crossing trillion-unit thresholds and loan books supported by project activity. Six names have posted double-digit gains that are unlikely to reverse if conditions normalise.
Saudi mid-tier stocks have corrected largely on valuation rather than operations, despite many reporting earnings growth through 2025, as confidence in gigaproject-driven growth has weakened. Property has also softened in the region as conflict has reduced routine and religious tourism.
The 12-month outlook depends on whether Hormuz reopens, whether Saudi mid-tier valuations stabilise, and whether banking expansion holds under broader repricing.
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Developers win deals for $3.5bn of Mecca projects
1 June 2026
The Royal Commission for Makkah City and Holy Sites has awarded six real estate development deals. The projects, which cover a total land area exceeding 2.7 million square metres (sq m), will require a total investment of SR13.3bn ($3.5bn).
The sites are located within the neighbourhoods of Jurhum South, Al-Khalidiyah, Al-Hajlah, Al-Hindawiyah East, Al-Hindawiyah South and Al-Hindawiyah West. The projects will be delivered as partnerships with domestic real estate developers, institutional investors and dedicated private investment funds.
A consortium consisting of Makkah Construction & Development Company, Umm Al-Qura for Development & Construction Company and Al-Rajhi United Real Estate Company will develop the Hindawiya West and Hindawiya South districts, which have a combined area of nearly 1.15 million sq m, adjacent to the Masar Destination project. The consortium informed the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) that it received letters of award for the project on 31 May.
The initial cost of the project is estimated at SR6bn. Umm Al-Qura will act as the consortium leader and development manager, while Makkah Construction & Development Company will serve as the financial partner. The infrastructure works will be executed by Al-Rajhi United Real Estate Company as the technical partner, with the entire development financed through a private, closed-ended real estate investment fund overseen by a Capital Market Authority-licensed manager.
A consortium comprising First Avenue for Real Estate Development Company, Dar Al-Majed Real Estate Company and Rekaz Real Estate Company has been awarded the concession for the East Hindawiyah site. Located 1.8 kilometres from the Holy Grand Mosque, the 235,000 sq m plot is expected to cost SR2bn to develop, which includes land acquisition and foundational infrastructure. The development will be structured as a real estate investment fund managed by Jadwa Investment, with the ultimate goal of creating an integrated urban destination featuring retail, office, hospitality and residential components. The final contract signing for this deal is expected by 10 June 2026.
Ladun Investment Company, in partnership with Al-Ayuni Investment & Contracting Company, has signed a deal for the Al-Khalidiyah district. With a targeted sales value exceeding SR6bn, the consortium will establish a closed-ended private real estate investment fund to execute extensive infrastructure works, subdivide the land plots, and handle subsequent marketing and sales. The detailed scope of works involves complete engineering designs, public park planning and utility coordination with entities such as National Water Company and Saudi Electricity Company, before a contract is signed by 9 June.
Saudi property dreams: Read the January 2026 MEED Business Review
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