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Monthly briefing: 20 key developments in the region

25 October 2022

By MEED staff

> Opec and its allies cut oil output

> Saipem wins $4.5bn North Field offshore gas contract

> Qatar to inaugurate 800MW solar farm

> Lebanon and Israel agree maritime border deal

> Aramco launches SME stimulator programme

> Region to be third-largest hydrogen source by 2050

> Egypt ready to supply natural gas to Lebanon

> Riyadh makes debt announcements

> Neom hydrogen project expected to close by year-end

> Abu Dhabi transfers ownership of Etihad Airways to ADQ

> Mipco secures $4bn to refinance Abu Dhabi plant

OIL OUTPUT CUTS

Opec+ to slash production from November to keep prices high

The Opec+ alliance of oil producers has decided to reduce oil production by 2 million barrels a day (b/d) from November to further shore up crude prices, which have fluctuated amid fears that a global recession could curb oil demand. 

The decision, which was led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, was taken at a meeting of the group in Austria on 5 October. 

The move represents a major reversal in production policy for Opec+, which slashed output by a record 10 million b/d in early 2020 when demand plummeted as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. Since then, the group has gradually unwound those cuts. Read more

 Tight oil market increases unease for stakeholders



The 33rd Opec and non-Opec ministerial meeting on 5 October. Credit: Opec

US FALLOUT

Saudi Arabia and UAE condemn US warning of ‘consequences’

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have rejected as baseless accusations that the Opec+ decision to reduce oil production from November was politically motivated against the US.

Riyadh has insisted decisions by Opec and its allies were taken “purely on economic considerations”, and said its economic advice had been to resist calls to delay the production cut. 

The UAE issued a statement calling upon the US to refrain from “politicisation” of the Opec+ decision. US President Joe Biden had previously warned that there would be “consequences” for Saudi Arabia and the Opec+ members for their decision to cut oil output.

EGYPT

World leaders to gather for meeting on climate change

Leaders from almost 200 countries will meet in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on 6-18 November for the UN’s 27th Conference of the Parties (Cop 27) climate change summit. 

Egypt’s International Cooperation Minister, Rania al-Mashat, has previously said that the focus of Cop 27 should be moving from “pledges to implementation”. The conference aims to deliver action on issues critical to tackling the climate emergency, from reducing greenhouse gas emissions, building resilience and adapting to the impacts of climate change, to delivering on the commitments to finance climate action in developing countries.

STEEL

Region could lead global steel decarbonisation efforts

As the global steel industry considers switching to direct reduced iron (DRI) production, the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region is primed to start producing carbon-neutral steel, according to a report by the Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis. 

“The Mena region can lead the world if it shifts promptly to renewables and applies green hydrogen in its steel sector,” says Soroush Basirat, the author of the report. 

“The region’s steel sector is dominated by direct reduced iron-electric arc furnace technology, which releases lower emissions than the … coal-fuelled blast furnace and basic oxygen furnace process used in 71 per cent of global crude steel production in 2021.” 

The Mena region produced just 3 per cent of global crude steel last  year, but accounted for nearly 46 per cent of the world’s DRI production. 

Basirat adds: “Mena has an established supply of DR-grade iron ore and its iron ore pelletising plants are among the world’s largest.”

SAUDI ARABIA

Riyadh announces government spending increase in 2022-24

Saudi Arabia has announced increases in government spending in 2022-24 of more than 18 per cent, which is close to SR175bn ($47bn) or 4 to 4.5 per cent of GDP. 

The rise in spending targets points to smaller fiscal surpluses in the coming years, according to Moody’s Investors Service. 

Increased spending could contribute to reducing the kingdom’s economic reliance on hydrocarbons, provided the spending is successfully deployed to advance government-sponsored diversification projects.

Saudi Arabia’s finances and ambition align

IRAQ

Prime minister-designate vows to act against corruption

Iraq’s prime minister-designate Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has pledged to take action against corruption after authorities announced that ID3.7tn ($2.5bn) had been embezzled from the General Tax Authority’s trust account held by a branch of Rafidain Bank. 

The Iraqi Integrity Commission has said it is opening an investigation into the theft 

On 13 October, Iraq’s parliament elected Abdul Latif Rashid as the country’s new president. He then tasked Al-Sudani with forming a new government to end a year of political gridlock. 

Al-Sudani faces a challenge in the coming weeks as he attempts to appoint a new cabinet of ministers. Members of the Iraqi political bloc led by Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr have said that they will not join the new government.

YEMEN

Houthi rebels attack oil terminal in southern Yemen

Iran-backed Houthi rebels have claimed responsibility for an attack on a cargo ship at an oil terminal in the south of the country on 21 October. The group said the attack by explosives-laden drones was meant to prevent pro-government forces from using the Al-Dhabba terminal for oil exports. 

The incident occurred in Ash-Shihr in the Hadramawt governorate, and targeted the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker Nissos Kea. The Greek owners of the tanker said it was undamaged. 

The internationally recognised government of Yemen said that its forces had intercepted armed drones launched against the Al-Dhabba oil terminal. 

UN special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, called the attack a “deeply worrying military escalation”. The Yemeni government sent a letter to the UN Security Council regarding the “threat to disrupt international maritime navigation and target ships and oil infrastructures”. 

The attack was the first military action announced by the Houthis since a truce between Yemen’s warring sides expired on 2 October.

LEBANON-ISRAEL

Lebanon and Israel reach maritime border deal

Lebanon and Israel have forged a deal to end a long-running maritime border dispute in the gas-rich Mediterranean Sea. Lebanon’s deputy speaker Elias Bou Saab said that an agreement had been reached that satisfies both sides. 

It is hoped that the new deal will resolve the two countries’ dispute over a swathe of territory in the Mediterranean Sea in an area where Lebanon aims to explore for natural gas, and near waters where Israel has already found commercially viable quantities of hydrocarbons. Read more

GCC

Region faces green hydrogen production challenges

GCC governments including Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are developing zero-carbon green hydrogen and low-carbon blue hydrogen schemes. However, achieving large-scale production, especially of green hydrogen, will be challenging in the coming years, according to Moody’s Investors Service. 

While both green and blue hydrogen will play a role in reducing the global carbon footprint, only green hydrogen has the potential to reduce the reliance of GCC countries on hydrocarbons, but this will take several years, Moody’s says. 

In the short to medium term, GCC countries’ access to cheap domestic natural gas, their carbon capture and storage expertise, and the limited availability of infrastructure make blue hydrogen production a more viable option than the more expensive and challenging production of green hydrogen.

Region to be third-largest hydrogen source by 2050
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    QatarEnergy has granted contractors more time to prepare bids for a tender covering the engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) of large platforms for the North Field gas field in Qatari waters.

    Contractors now have until 12 October to submit technical bids for the project, according to sources. Commercial bids are currently due on 10 November.

    The following contractors, among others, are understood to be bidding for the North Field West (NFW) production deck modules (PDMs) tender:

    • China Offshore Oil Engineering Company (China)
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    • McDermott (US)
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    The core scope comprises the EPCI of four PDMs and associated structures. The PDMs will increase gas production from North Field reservoirs and provide additional gas feedstock for the NFW liquefied natural gas (LNG) development.

    The tender, issued earlier this year, forms part of the wider NFW project, the third and final phase of the state enterprise’s North Field LNG expansion programme.

    The previous deadlines for technical bids were 30 August, 15 September and 28 September, while commercial bids were previously due on 25 October, as MEED reported.

    Before issuing the PDMs tender, QatarEnergy awarded US firm McDermott a contract for the EPCI of four offshore jackets that will also support gas feedstock supply for the NFW LNG project. The contract is estimated to be worth about $200m, MEED reported in January.

    North Field LNG expansion

    QatarEnergy is advancing the three phases of its estimated $40bn North Field LNG expansion project. EPC works on all three projects are progressing.

    QatarEnergy is understood to have committed nearly $30bn to the first two phases – North Field East (NFE) and North Field South (NFS) – which will lift Qatar’s LNG production capacity from 77.5 million tonnes a year (t/y) to 126 million t/y by 2028.

    QatarEnergy awarded the main EPC contracts for NFE in 2021. The project was intended to raise LNG output to 110 million t/y by 2025. The $13bn EPC package – covering the EPCI of four LNG trains, each with a capacity of 8 million t/y – was awarded in February 2021 to a consortium of Japan’s Chiyoda and France’s Technip Energies.

    In May 2023, QatarEnergy awarded the $10bn main EPC contract for NFS to a consortium of Technip Energies and Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC). The contract includes two LNG trains, each with a capacity of 7.8 million t/y.

    Once fully operational, the first two phases are expected to add 48 million t/y of LNG supply to the global market.

    QatarEnergy took the final investment decision on NFW earlier this year, awarding an EPC contract estimated at $8bn to a joint venture comprising Technip Energies, CCC and Gulf Asia Contracting in February.

    Chiyoda carried out the front-end engineering and design work for the NFW LNG project.

    The NFW scope covers the EPC of two LNG trains with a combined capacity of 16 million t/y, as well as associated facilities for gas treatment, natural gas liquids recovery and helium extraction.

    In addition to LNG, NFW is expected to produce about 175,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day of condensate, ethane and liquefied petroleum gas.

    With all three phases under EPC execution – and NFE scheduled for commissioning later this year – QatarEnergy is positioning itself to remain one of the world’s largest LNG suppliers in the long term.

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  • Egypt implements oil and gas storage projects worth $1.1bn

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    Egypt is implementing oil and gas storage projects worth a total of £E54bn ($1.1bn), according to a statement released by the country’s cabinet.

    Active developments include expanding El-Hamra Petroleum Port in El-Alamein on the Mediterranean coast, as well as building a jet-fuel storage and transport hub at the Badr depot in Cairo.

    Other projects include constructing new storage tanks at refinery complexes in Amreya, Alexandria; Assiut; and Cairo.

    Over the past 12 years, Egypt has built 84 petroleum storage facilities with a total capacity of 5.2 million tonnes, the cabinet statement said.

    Egypt has invested £E42.7bn ($880m) in developing these facilities, with the aim of bolstering domestic energy security.

    Completed infrastructure projects include facilities in Sohag (Upper Egypt) and Alexandria.

    They also include offshore terminal and storage facilities, a liquid bulk station in Ain Sokhna, and strategic crude oil storage tanks across the country.

    Storage facilities have become a strategic priority for Egypt since the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February, triggering a regional war that has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

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  • Bankability key to Saudi PPP pipeline

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    Saudi Arabia’s National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP) holds structured talks with bidders and lenders before launching transactions to ensure projects in its pipeline are bankable, according to a senior official.

    Speaking on a panel at MEED’s Shaping Mega Projects conference in Riyadh on 28 September, Tariq Alghaziri, executive vice-president at the NCP, said the centre carries out market sounding with potential bidders and debt providers, including commercial and Islamic banks, before announcing deals.

    “Bankability is a key word for us,” he said. “You can structure the deal in the way you want. You can have whatever technicalities and technologies are required, but is it suitable for the private sector to deliver? That’s the big question.”

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    Risk transfer

    Jonathan Looker, managing director for Saudi Arabia at UK consultancy Mott MacDonald, said the public and private sectors often perceive risk very differently.

    "Can you put yourself in the shoes of the person you’re trying to transfer risk to?” he said. “There isn’t one single allocation model that is fit for every project.”

    Looker said failure to agree on risk can prevent projects from reaching financial close. "I’ve unfortunately been involved in a number of projects where we just can’t get the deal done because there is not a meeting of minds around a specific aspect of risk.”

    Alghaziri said Saudi regulations now state that the party with the capacity to manage a risk should take it, but that risk carries a cost. “You cannot just give the risk without pricing it,” he said. The NCP has trained more than 300 people over the past five or six years, including through a PPP professional certification it introduced in the kingdom.

    Early planning

    Hesham Ouf, senior director of finance at Roshn Group, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) subsidiary, said risk management begins at the feasibility stage. “You need to have the stage gates right from the beginning until the project is delivered,” he said.

    Ali Al-Kuwari, senior manager of export development at Qatar Development Bank (QDB), said early disclosure of procurement needs allows lenders to assess project risk. “For me, the answer is very easy. I’ll ask for a sovereign guarantee,” he said.

    Wesley Thomson, partner and head of environmental, social and governance (ESG) at UK property consultancy Knight Frank, said climate exposure is becoming a central risk for long-life assets. “Mitigation is not the right word any more. I prefer to say adaptation, because the truth is you need to adapt to what we’re seeing.”

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  • Financing hinders progress at major Iraqi refinery project

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    Financial problems are hindering progress at Iraq’s Al-Faw Investment Refinery project, according to industry sources.

    Despite the main contract being signed more than two years ago, construction of the main refinery units has yet to begin because of ongoing financial issues, sources said.

    In May 2024, a statement released by the Iraqi Prime Minister’s Office said that Iraq’s state-owned Southern Refineries Company and China National Chemical Engineering Company (CNCEC) had signed a contract to develop the project.

    Iraq’s Oil Ministry previously said the project would be worth $7bn-$8bn.

    The project has struggled to make progress even after direct intervention by Iraq’s previous prime minister.

    On 6 August 2025, 15 months after the May 2024 contract signing with CNCEC, Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, then prime minister, chaired a special meeting to resolve administrative and technical obstacles preventing the project from starting.

    At the time, Al-Sudani said the refinery project would have significant financial returns and would be “a breakthrough in the oil industry”.

    While the meeting in 2025 is believed to have solved some of the administrative issues blocking progress, financial problems with the project remain, sources said.

    The Al-Faw project is part of the Iraqi government’s plan to increase Iraq’s refining capacity, attract foreign investment and increase domestic production of petroleum products.

    Under existing plans, the refinery will have a capacity of 300,000 barrels a day and will produce oil derivatives for both domestic and international markets.

    The project will be carried out in two stages.

    The first phase will involve refining operations, while the second will involve constructing a petrochemicals complex with a capacity of 3 million tonnes a year.

    The project also includes building a 2,000MW power plant and establishing the Al-Faw Academy for Refinery Technology to train 5,000 Iraqi workers who will eventually work at the facility.

    Hualu, a subsidiary of CNCEC, signed a preliminary principles agreement for the project in December 2021.

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  • Saudi pre-budget leans on borrowing to fund projects

    2 October 2026

    Saudi Arabia plans to spend SR1.39tn ($371.2bn) in 2027, according to the Finance Ministry’s pre-budget statement. That is 3% less than the estimated outturn for 2026, after regional conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed this year’s expenditure well past its allocation.

    The ministry now expects 2026 spending to reach SR1.44tn, which is SR122bn or 9.3% above the SR1.31tn approved in the budget. Revenues are estimated at SR1.19tn, SR43bn above budget, leaving a deficit of SR245bn, equal to 4.9% of GDP. The original budget assumed a SR165bn deficit, or 3.3% of GDP.

    For 2027, the statement projects revenues of SR1.2tn and a deficit of SR191bn, or 3.6% of GDP. Expenditure is forecast to rise to SR1.48tn in 2028 and SR1.54tn in 2029, with deficits of SR177bn and SR192bn projected for those years. On the ministry’s figures, the kingdom will run cumulative deficits of SR560bn ($149.3bn) between 2027 and 2029.

    The economic backdrop has deteriorated sharply. The ministry expects real GDP to contract by 3.6% in 2026, driven by a 21.8% fall in oil activity, while non-oil activity grows by 3.2%. It forecasts a rebound to 12.8% real growth in 2027.

    Capital spending

    The statement does not publish a capital expenditure figure or a sector breakdown. Those will follow with the budget in Q4. It does signal that project spending will continue. As Vision 2030 enters what the statement calls its third phase, the government says efforts will focus on “accelerating the pace of delivery and capitalising on growth opportunities through continued government capital expenditure”. It also wants a stronger role for the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and the National Development Fund in stimulating domestic investment.

    The ministry says it will “implement infrastructure-related programmes” and direct resources “towards priority programmes and projects”. It also commits to “maximise the utilisation of existing government assets and investments”. That wording points to a sharper focus on completing and monetising existing schemes rather than launching new ones.

    The medium-term debt strategy is designed to ensure “the continuity of the implementation of priority projects without being linked to the fluctuations of the economic cycle”, according to the statement.

    The government’s revenue scenarios hold expenditure at SR1.39tn in all three cases. Under the lowest revenue case of SR1.13tn, the deficit widens to SR259bn. The highest case of SR1.26tn narrows it to SR132bn. Any change falls on borrowing rather than on spending.

    The ministry says debt will deliberately rise by the end of 2027, and the borrowing plan will be disclosed by the end of this year. Alongside bonds, sukuk and loans, the government plans to expand “alternative government financing, including financing of projects, infrastructure and export credit agencies” in 2027 and over the medium term.

    Private capital

    The statement presents private investment as a growing share of project delivery. Investment in privatisation and public-private partnership (PPP) projects reached about SR180bn by the end of 2025. The National Privatisation Strategy was approved in November 2025. Ten privatisation and PPP projects have been launched under it in the first half of 2026, including the Prince Naif Bin Abdulaziz International Airport PPP in Qassim. Contracts were signed for the Sabic Mental Health Hospital and the Jubail Container Terminal, taking the total to 83 partnership contracts. Private capital investment has exceeded SR56.2bn, against a target of SR240bn by 2030.

    The National Infrastructure Fund has committed SR10.5bn since 2022 to projects with a combined value of about SR59.3bn, of which SR44.1bn is private investment. Projects it has backed include the Neom green hydrogen project, the Shuaibah solar photovoltaic plants, the Prince Mohammad Bin Abdulaziz Airport expansion, the Jubail-Buraidah independent water transmission pipeline and the Ezditek data centre. The fund plans to expand into healthcare, education, sports and artificial intelligence.

    PIF’s domestic investments totalled about SR750bn between 2021 and 2025. The statement lists several recent contracts across its portfolio. Diriyah Company, the PIF-owned developer of the Diriyah gigaproject, awarded a SR1.8bn contract to a consortium of local companies to build the Saudi Museum of Contemporary Art. PIF-owned Soudah Development signed a SR1.3bn agreement with National Grid SA, the transmission subsidiary of Saudi Electricity Company, to deliver electricity infrastructure for the Soudah Peaks project. Saudi Entertainment Ventures, also owned by PIF, plans 14 destinations across 13 cities, with investment of more than SR45bn. The Saudi Export-Import Bank plans to provide SR41.6bn of financing and insurance to non-oil exporters in 2027.

    Logistics investment has also become a priority since the disruption to Gulf shipping. The share of non-oil exports passing through Red Sea ports rose to 40.7% during the crisis, from 19.3% before it. In July, the General Ports Authority signed contracts worth up to SR1bn for seven logistics centres at Jeddah Islamic Port and Al-Khumrah. A separate logistics corridors initiative connects Gulf ports to the Red Sea by road and rail.

    The final 2027 budget is due for approval in Q4.

    MEED’s October 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Saudi projects hold steady
    > GOVERNMENT: Riyadh looks to reset its regional defence outlook
    > ECONOMY: Conflict bolsters case for Saudi economic diversification
    > BANKING: Saudi lenders readjust to lower lending and deposit climate
    > UPSTREAM: Aramco upstream spending gathers pace
    > DOWNSTREAM: Sabic steps up Saudi petchems investment
    > POWER: Saudi Arabia’s power award activity slows
    > WATER: Saudi water sector hits sharp slowdown
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction defies the headwinds
    > TRANSPORT: Saudi infrastructure pushes forward amid conflict
    > DATABANK: Saudi data indicates project spending shift

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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    Colin Foreman