meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Middle East’s evolving alliances continue to shift

26 December 2024

 

Within and without, alliances in the Middle East are in a state of flux.

The brittle tensions that pitted three Gulf states against Qatar, before the January 2021 Al-Ula Agreement found an amicable resolution, have given way to burgeoning rapprochement between the UAE and Qatar.

On the other hand, the UAE-Saudi rivalry has intensified in recent years, culminating in late March 2024 in Riyadh’s lodging of an official complaint at the UN General Assembly, rejecting the UAE’s designation of territory adjacent to the kingdom as a protected maritime area.

Differences over the two countries’ Opec strategies, and their approaches to regional conflicts – notably Yemen and Sudan – have also come to the fore.

Latterly, a de-escalation has helped to defuse those tensions. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan have strived to improve relations, with a meeting between the two leaders in late May doing much to stem the fraying of a once-close relationship.

Thawing enmities

The bigger shift in regional relations involves Iran. The Gaza conflict, fanning out to Lebanon, has helped reframe Gulf states’ ties with Tehran.

This was evident in the landmark visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Bahrain in October for a meeting with King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa – the first such visit in 14 years.

With a reputation as the Gulf state most hostile to Iran, Bahrain’s recent diplomatic outreach to Tehran reflects its sense that talking to the enemy is better than isolation, in the context of the current heightened regional tensions.

The Chinese-orchestrated Saudi-Iran agreement of 2023 at least provides a template for Manama to follow.

Bahrain’s overtures to Iran also reflect a new security dynamic in the region.

With Iran-backed militias in Iraq showing themselves capable of dispatching missiles as far as Israel, some regional analysts say the Gulf states’ leaders are increasingly anxious that these Shia militias could just as easily target them.

In this sense, building relationships with the Islamic Republic is one way of ensuring that domestic territory is not targeted by Iranian proxy militias.

China is playing to the crowd. It … is looking to put a wedge between the US and the wider world, including Southeast Asia
Bill Hayton, Chatham House

Beijing’s broadening reach

The region has also found itself increasingly engaged east of the Suez. 

China’s regional role remains a work in progress, with the Saudi-Iran agreement arising out of Beijing’s willingness to offer a non-Western alternative to conflict mediation.

From Riyadh’s point of view, China’s leverage with Iran, primarily through extensive trade and investment links, made it the ideal broker for an agreement that Saudi Arabia views as key to helping dial down the threat posed by Iran.

The backdrop to such Gulf engagements with the likes of Iran and China is the evident reluctance of the US to provide the blanket security guarantees to its regional allies that it once did.

This has incentivised the Gulf states to attempt diplomatic entreaties with regional adversaries, compelled by an understandable need for self-preservation.

This has wider significance, placing China in a more prominent role in influencing regional politics – a sharp contrast with its previous low-key strategy and one that China watchers such as Bill Hayton, Asia-Pacific associate fellow at the thinktank Chatham House, see as being driven by interests rather than by tactical power politics.

For Beijing at least, its involvement in 2023’s Saudi-Iran deal affords an opportunity to reinforce its regional influence, while demonstrating its support for the Palestinian cause – an issue that resonates with many across the region. 

“China is playing to the crowd,” says Hayton. “It has decided that large parts of [the world] don’t like Israel and it is looking to put a wedge between the US and the wider world, including Southeast Asia.”

China is meanwhile looking to deepen relations beyond Iran.

Despite the evident importance it places on maintaining close relations with the Islamic Republic – most notably as the main buyer of the latter’s crude oil exports – China also sees value in building ties with Saudi Arabia.

The recent accession of Saudi Arabia, alongside the UAE, Egypt and Iran, to the Brics geopolitical bloc affords further means for China to expand its influence in the region.

From Saudi Arabia’s point of view, Brics membership could provide opportunities to broaden its engagement beyond the Western powers with which it has been allied for generations.

The Trump factor

Given that when Donald Trump resumes his occupancy of the Oval Office in late January the US is likely to take a maximum-pressure approach towards Iran once again, a more multipolar disposition could offer the Gulf states something of a hedge.

Saudi Arabia could equally find itself in a position to be a conduit between the wider region and the Trump White House.

With inbound Trump appointees including the fiercely pro-Israel Mike Huckabee as the proposed US ambassador to Israel, there is a concern that the White House could give a green light to Israel to annex the West Bank and embed its occupation of Gaza.

The region may then find itself counting on Riyadh’s clout in Washington to restrain Trump from pursuing positions that would only escalate regional tensions.

Between the likes of the EU, the UK and China looking to revive relations with Saudi Arabia, and Russia still being a partner in the Opec+ group, the Saudi leadership may find itself the centre of regional attention in 2025.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13025007/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Adnoc steps up crude expansion

    15 October 2026

     

    Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Group) is entering a new phase of upstream investment as the UAE’s withdrawal from Opec opens the way for greater oil production flexibility. After spending an estimated $37bn on upstream projects in 2023 and 2024, the state-owned energy company continues to invest heavily in expanding crude production capacity and developing domestic gas supplies.

    The investment programme supports two key targets: raising crude production capacity to 5 million barrels a day (b/d) by 2027 and achieving gas self-sufficiency by the end of the decade.

    Following the UAE’s withdrawal from Opec in May 2026, Adnoc Group has nearly matched its 2024 upstream project spending level so far this year and is on course to surpass it by a significant margin.

    The UAE had invested billions of dollars in expanding crude production capacity, but output quotas under the Opec+ framework had constrained its ability to translate that capacity into higher production and additional oil revenues in a high-price environment.

    The UAE’s exit from Opec gives Adnoc greater flexibility to utilise its spare capacity, accelerate progress towards its 5 million b/d target and potentially exceed it. The company is positioning itself to capitalise on rising oil demand while retaining the flexibility to respond to market conditions.

    Robust offshore spending

    So far this year, Adnoc Offshore has awarded major contracts for projects involving the Satah Al-Razboot (Sarb) deep gas development, the expansion of the Nasr oil field and an increase in the Upper Zakum oil field’s output capacity to 1.5 million b/d.

    Adnoc reached a final investment decision (FID) on the Sarb project in January and awarded the main engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract to US-based McDermott International. The contract is estimated to be worth around $500m, sources told MEED.

    The project is expected to deliver 200 million cubic feet a day (cf/d) of gas by the end of the decade – enough to power more than 300,000 homes.

    The scope includes the EPC of an offshore wellhead tower with four gas production wells, which will be connected to Das Island for processing through Adnoc Gas facilities. The works also include the installation of pipelines and intra-field connections linking the Sarb field to Das Island.

    Also in January, Adnoc Offshore awarded McDermott a $942m contract for the Nasr-115 project, which will increase production capacity at the Nasr offshore field to 115,000 b/d. The field is located about 130 kilometres northwest of Abu Dhabi.

    McDermott’s scope covers engineering, procurement, construction and installation services for two topside structures, a new manifold tower, a jacket, a bridge, associated pipelines, subsea cables and brownfield modifications.

    UZ1.5MMBD project

    Located 84km offshore Abu Dhabi, Upper Zakum is the world’s second-largest offshore oil field and fourth-largest oil field overall. The UZ 1.5MMBD project is Adnoc Offshore’s latest crude production expansion scheme at the Upper Zakum field.

    The project scope is divided into three packages. The first EPC package covers surface facilities required on the field’s existing artificial islands, including integrated gas-lift compressors, produced-water reinjection units, water treatment plants, pre-assembled manifolds and related facilities.

    The second package covers offshore facilities and comprises several segments of subsea pipelines and subsea cables.

    The third package covers work on Adnoc’s existing Zirku Island and will require additional oil tanks, a water treatment unit, an export gas compressor, a condensate treatment unit, and associated power and utilities facilities.

    Adnoc Offshore awarded the first and third EPC packages of the UZ 1.5MMBD project to Spanish contractor Tecnicas Reunidas, while Abu Dhabi-based NMDC Energy won the second package. The overall scheme is estimated to be worth more than $10bn.

    Umm Shaif Gas Cap

    Gas production has also been a key capex area this year, with Adnoc and its foreign partners reaching a $6.2bn FID in July for a major project to produce up to 600 million cubic feet a day (cf/d) of natural gas by developing the Umm Shaif Gas Cap in Abu Dhabi.

    The Umm Shaif Gas Cap reserve lies within the offshore Umm Shaif and Nasr hydrocarbons concession, in which Adnoc is the majority stakeholder. Other stakeholders in the concession are Italy’s Eni, France’s TotalEnergies and China National Petroleum Corporation.

    Adnoc said the FID includes three EPC packages totalling $5.1bn for large-scale offshore infrastructure, awarded to the following contractors:

    • First offshore package – fabrication of a 30,000-tonne gas compression system: Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India) / Lamprell (Saudi Arabia/UAE)
    • Second offshore package – fabrication of another 30,000-tonne gas compression system: McDermott (US)
    • Onshore package – EPC of gas inlet and processing systems on Das Island: China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Company (CPECC)

    As part of the FID, Adnoc also awarded a $365m contract to its subsidiary Adnoc Drilling for a 14-well drilling and integrated drilling services scope, to be delivered over 18 months using three existing rigs.

    Separate from the Umm Shaif Gas Cap development, Adnoc Offshore is preparing to issue the main tender for the next expansion phase of the Umm Shaif oil and gas field offshore Abu Dhabi.

    Contractors expressed interest to Adnoc Offshore in June in participating in the main tendering exercise for the Umm Shaif long-term development plan 2.1 (LTDP-2.1) project.

    The project’s primary objective is to maintain Umm Shaif’s oil production capacity at approximately 390,000 b/d, while enabling peak output of up to 430,000 b/d.

    The project includes constructing a new combined artificial island at Umm Shaif, equipped with drilling, processing, utilities and supporting infrastructure. It also includes installation of an optimised crude-stabilisation train at Adnoc’s existing Das Island facilities.

    Located about 150km northwest of Abu Dhabi city, Umm Shaif is one of Adnoc’s oldest offshore oil-producing assets. In 2022, the company marked the 60th anniversary of the UAE’s first export of Umm Shaif crude, which took place in July 1962.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20634497/main.gif
    Indrajit Sen
  • Joint venture wins Oman desalination contract

    15 October 2026

    Bahwan Veolia Water, a joint venture of France’s Veolia and Oman’s Bahwan Engineering Company, has signed a five-year operations and maintenance (O&M) contract for the Al-Asilah desalination plant in the sultanate.

    The Al-Asilah plant has a production capacity of 80,000 cubic metres a day and helps supply drinking water to about 600,000 residents across South Al-Sharqiyah governorate. It also has an on-site solar farm to support lower-carbon water production.

    The plant entered commercial operation in January 2022 under a build-own-operate arrangement. A consortium of Bahwan Engineering and Japan-headquartered JGC Corporation developed it.

    South Korea’s Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction, now known as Doosan Enerbility, carried out the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works.

    Oman’s first independent water project (IWP), the Sur IWP, also serves residents in Al-Sharqiyah governorate.

    The main contract for the project was awarded in 2007, with Veolia carrying out EPC works and acting as shareholder in Sharqiyah Desalination Company, which owns the plant.

    Bahwan Veolia Water signed a 22-year O&M agreement for the project that same year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20631273/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Adnoc funnels billions into boosting gas processing

    15 October 2026

     

    Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Group) is accelerating investment in gas processing and associated downstream infrastructure as demand in the UAE rises and the government prioritises lower-carbon energy growth.

    Rising gas consumption in the UAE is being driven by rapid population growth, greater household electrification, expanding industrial bases and demand from gas-intensive downstream segments such as petrochemicals, fertilisers and metals.

    Power generation and water desalination are also key sources of demand, while new industrial zones – as well as data centres supporting the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) use in the country – add further baseload requirements.

    Adnoc Gas, Adnoc Group’s gas processing subsidiary, is leading the UAE’s push to expand gas processing capacity and is executing a major capital expenditure (capex) programme worth $28bn over 2026-30.

    As part of that capex plan, Adnoc Gas achieved a final investment decision (FID) on the second and third phases of its Rich Gas Development (RGD) programme earlier this year.

    Adnoc Gas awarded $8.2bn of engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts for the second and third phases of the RGD programme. These cover a new gas processing train at the Habshan complex and a natural gas liquids fractionation train at the Ruwais gas processing facility, respectively.

    Under the awards, China-based Wison Engineering will execute phase 2 under a $3.9bn contract, while Italy’s Tecnimont has secured the $4.3bn phase 3 contract.

    Adnoc Gas has also reiterated its $5bn capex for the first phase of the RGD scheme, which is under construction. The company awarded $5bn of engineering, procurement and construction management contracts in three tranches for phase 1 of the RGD programme in June last year, marking the company’s largest-ever capital investment.

    Across all three phases, Adnoc Gas has committed a total of $13.2bn to the RGD programme.

    Bab Gas Cap development

    Looking ahead, Adnoc Gas is advancing towards FID on the estimated $8bn Bab gas cap development. The project will process up to 1.85 billion cubic feet a day (cf/d) of raw feed gas once Adnoc Group begins extracting reserves from four underdeveloped onshore reservoirs at the Bab field: Thammama A, B and H (projected to yield a combined 1.45 billion cf/d) and Thammama F (projected at 396 million cf/d).

    Because existing trains at the Habshan complex cannot accommodate these supplementary volumes, the project entails building a processing plant approximately 170 kilometres from Abu Dhabi city, alongside pipeline networks and ancillary units.

    Adnoc Gas has split the EPC scope into four packages, with technical bids due on 16 November:

    • Package 1: Main Bab gas cap processing plant
    • Package 2: Early civil works
    • Package 3: Pipeline network
    • Package 4: Non-process facilities and associated infrastructure

    Four contractor consortiums prequalified to bid for the main contracts:

    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India) / Samsung E&A (South Korea)
    • Saipem (Italy) / NMDC Energy (UAE)
    • Technip Energies (France) / JGC Corporation (Japan) / Sinopec (China)
    • Tecnimont (Italy) / China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation 

    Gas pipeline investments

    Adnoc Group continues to invest in projects to enhance its gas transmission networks across the UAE, following its $3.5bn-plus capex on the Estidama programme earlier this decade to expand its sales-gas network in the country.

    Adnoc Gas recently awarded the main contract for a project to build a new pipeline that will supply gas from the Habshan scraper launcher station at its Habshan gas compression complex in Abu Dhabi to the Al-Nouf customer receiving station, for delivery to Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec).

    The proposed 56-inch, 127km pipeline will help the UAE’s state utility, Ewec, meet additional gas demand to power the second phase of an AI data centre in Abu Dhabi, as well as support the relocation of some of its key assets in the Mirfa area of the emirate.

    Adnoc Gas awarded the EPC contract for the project to India-based Kalpataru Projects International.

    Separately, Adnoc is moving ahead with plans to build an oil pipeline network that will transport crude from its main offshore oil processing islands in the Gulf to its onshore crude export terminal at Jebel Dhanna, Abu Dhabi.

    The planned network will source crude from Zirku Island and Das Island, where Adnoc gathers and treats oil produced at Abu Dhabi’s offshore fields, among other processing hubs, and transport it about 300km inland to the Jebel Dhanna terminal.

    The proposed pipelines will eventually connect to the West-East crude pipeline network currently being built from Jebel Dhanna to the emirate of Fujairah, which is expected to be commissioned in 2027.

    Boosting chemicals output

    Meanwhile, following major investments over the past three years to set up specialty chemical plants under the first phase of its chemical derivatives complex in Ruwais Industrial City, Taziz is firming up plans for the second phase of the complex.

    Taziz has partnered with local conglomerate Alpha Dhabi to undertake a joint feasibility and market study and, subject to FIDs and regulatory approvals, the second phase of the Taziz Industrial Chemicals Zone could produce up to 14 new chemicals, with total output capacity of about 2.2 million tonnes a year (t/y).

    The chemicals under study include styrene and polystyrene, acrylic acid and derivatives, polyols, methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI), epoxy resins and linear alpha-olefins. These are widely used across construction, automotive, packaging, consumer goods, infrastructure and advanced manufacturing.

    Taziz, Germany-based chemicals producer Covestro and XRG – all wholly or majority-owned subsidiaries of Adnoc Group –  have launched a joint feasibility study to assess the development of a world-scale MDI plant in Ruwais Industrial City.

    The partners aim to establish a facility in the Taziz Industrial Chemicals Zone with a production capacity of 660,000 t/y of MDI. The study will evaluate the technical, commercial and economic feasibility of the proposed plant, with the aim of informing a future investment decision.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20622502/main.gif
    Indrajit Sen
  • Morocco extends deadline for El-Menzel pumped-storage plant

    15 October 2026

    Morocco’s Office National de l’Electricite (One) has extended the deadline for contractors to submit bids for the 362MW El-Menzel pumped-storage hydropower project.

    The new deadline is 25 November. Bids were previously due on 28 October.

    The project is located about 35 kilometres southeast of Sefrou in the Fes-Meknes region. The engineering, procurement and construction contract covers engineering, equipment supply, construction, installation and commissioning.

    The scope includes two reversible pump-turbine units, upper and lower reservoirs, underground water conduits, a 400kV substation and a transmission line connecting the facility to the national grid.

    One tendered the project in July following an earlier prequalification process that began in May 2023, when six consortiums submitted applications.

    Three consortiums were subsequently prequalified to bid for the main contract. These include:

    • China International Water & Electric Corporation (China) / Yellow River Engineering Consulting Company (China) / Harbin Electric International Company (China) / Harbin Electric Machinery Company (China) / Jet Contractors (Morocco)
    • Sinohydro (China) / Andritz Hydro (Austria)
    • Webuild (Italy) / Dongfang Electric International Corporation (China)

    The project aims to support Morocco’s renewable energy programme and help the country reach its target of sourcing 52% of its energy mix from renewables by 2030. It is being financed by the African Development Bank and Germany’s KfW Development Bank.

    One already operates the 464MW Afourer and 350MW Abdelmoumen pumped-storage stations, while the 300MW Ifahsa project is under development.

    In August, the Office National de l’Electricite et de l’Eau Potable (Onee) approved a MD248bn ($26.4bn) investment programme for 2026-30. The spending plan covers electricity and drinking water infrastructure.

    The programme allocates $21.9bn to electricity projects and $4.5bn to drinking water infrastructure. According to Onee, the private sector will finance about 72% of the investment.

    The electricity programme includes $11.1bn of investment to develop 11.6GW of renewable energy capacity and 2.6GW of energy storage. It also provides for 2,230MWh of battery energy storage systems, the El-Menzel pumped-storage hydropower plant and 3,744MW of gas-fired generation to support grid flexibility.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20621738/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Contractors given extension on Riyadh airport aviation complex

    15 October 2026

     

    Contractors have been given an extension until 19 November to submit proposals for an estimated SR3bn ($817m) contract to build an aviation complex within the King Salman International airport master development in Riyadh.

    Government-owned aviation organisation Saudi Royal Aviation (SRA) tendered the contract in August, with an initial bid submission deadline of 8 October.

    Phase one of the programme comprised the concept design stage, which the design consultant has completed.

    SRA is now seeking to deliver the second phase, which covers design development, detailed design, procurement, construction, testing, commissioning and close-out of the works.

    The scope covers 30 landside buildings, including 16 screening areas and gates, plus 15 airside buildings, including four gates.

    The assets include maintenance hangars, workshops, office and administrative buildings (including interior fit-out), warehouses, storage, security and catering facilities, aprons and access roads, and site utilities and civil works.

    King Salman International airport will provide primary utilities to designated tie-in points, with the contractor taking responsibility from there.

    Although the site is within King Salman International airport’s boundaries, it is classified as landside and is a greenfield development. The contractor must therefore meet airport security, safety and access requirements, in addition to SRA’s own clearance processes.

    Project scale

    The King Salman International airport project covers an area of about 57 square kilometres (sq km), allowing for six parallel runways, and will include the existing terminals at King Khalid International airport. It will also include 12 sq km of airport support facilities, residential and recreational facilities, retail outlets and other logistics real estate.

    The airport aims to accommodate up to 100 million passengers by 2030. The goal for cargo is to process 2 million tonnes a year by 2030.

    Saudi Arabia plans to invest significantly in its aviation sector. The Saudi Aviation Strategy, announced by the General Authority of Civil Aviation, aims to triple Saudi Arabia’s annual passenger traffic to 330 million travellers by 2030.

    It also aims to increase air cargo traffic to 4.5 million tonnes and raise the country’s total air connections to more than 250 destinations.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20619953/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal