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Middle East’s evolving alliances continue to shift

26 December 2024

 

Within and without, alliances in the Middle East are in a state of flux.

The brittle tensions that pitted three Gulf states against Qatar, before the January 2021 Al-Ula Agreement found an amicable resolution, have given way to burgeoning rapprochement between the UAE and Qatar.

On the other hand, the UAE-Saudi rivalry has intensified in recent years, culminating in late March 2024 in Riyadh’s lodging of an official complaint at the UN General Assembly, rejecting the UAE’s designation of territory adjacent to the kingdom as a protected maritime area.

Differences over the two countries’ Opec strategies, and their approaches to regional conflicts – notably Yemen and Sudan – have also come to the fore.

Latterly, a de-escalation has helped to defuse those tensions. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan have strived to improve relations, with a meeting between the two leaders in late May doing much to stem the fraying of a once-close relationship.

Thawing enmities

The bigger shift in regional relations involves Iran. The Gaza conflict, fanning out to Lebanon, has helped reframe Gulf states’ ties with Tehran.

This was evident in the landmark visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Bahrain in October for a meeting with King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa – the first such visit in 14 years.

With a reputation as the Gulf state most hostile to Iran, Bahrain’s recent diplomatic outreach to Tehran reflects its sense that talking to the enemy is better than isolation, in the context of the current heightened regional tensions.

The Chinese-orchestrated Saudi-Iran agreement of 2023 at least provides a template for Manama to follow.

Bahrain’s overtures to Iran also reflect a new security dynamic in the region.

With Iran-backed militias in Iraq showing themselves capable of dispatching missiles as far as Israel, some regional analysts say the Gulf states’ leaders are increasingly anxious that these Shia militias could just as easily target them.

In this sense, building relationships with the Islamic Republic is one way of ensuring that domestic territory is not targeted by Iranian proxy militias.

China is playing to the crowd. It … is looking to put a wedge between the US and the wider world, including Southeast Asia
Bill Hayton, Chatham House

Beijing’s broadening reach

The region has also found itself increasingly engaged east of the Suez. 

China’s regional role remains a work in progress, with the Saudi-Iran agreement arising out of Beijing’s willingness to offer a non-Western alternative to conflict mediation.

From Riyadh’s point of view, China’s leverage with Iran, primarily through extensive trade and investment links, made it the ideal broker for an agreement that Saudi Arabia views as key to helping dial down the threat posed by Iran.

The backdrop to such Gulf engagements with the likes of Iran and China is the evident reluctance of the US to provide the blanket security guarantees to its regional allies that it once did.

This has incentivised the Gulf states to attempt diplomatic entreaties with regional adversaries, compelled by an understandable need for self-preservation.

This has wider significance, placing China in a more prominent role in influencing regional politics – a sharp contrast with its previous low-key strategy and one that China watchers such as Bill Hayton, Asia-Pacific associate fellow at the thinktank Chatham House, see as being driven by interests rather than by tactical power politics.

For Beijing at least, its involvement in 2023’s Saudi-Iran deal affords an opportunity to reinforce its regional influence, while demonstrating its support for the Palestinian cause – an issue that resonates with many across the region. 

“China is playing to the crowd,” says Hayton. “It has decided that large parts of [the world] don’t like Israel and it is looking to put a wedge between the US and the wider world, including Southeast Asia.”

China is meanwhile looking to deepen relations beyond Iran.

Despite the evident importance it places on maintaining close relations with the Islamic Republic – most notably as the main buyer of the latter’s crude oil exports – China also sees value in building ties with Saudi Arabia.

The recent accession of Saudi Arabia, alongside the UAE, Egypt and Iran, to the Brics geopolitical bloc affords further means for China to expand its influence in the region.

From Saudi Arabia’s point of view, Brics membership could provide opportunities to broaden its engagement beyond the Western powers with which it has been allied for generations.

The Trump factor

Given that when Donald Trump resumes his occupancy of the Oval Office in late January the US is likely to take a maximum-pressure approach towards Iran once again, a more multipolar disposition could offer the Gulf states something of a hedge.

Saudi Arabia could equally find itself in a position to be a conduit between the wider region and the Trump White House.

With inbound Trump appointees including the fiercely pro-Israel Mike Huckabee as the proposed US ambassador to Israel, there is a concern that the White House could give a green light to Israel to annex the West Bank and embed its occupation of Gaza.

The region may then find itself counting on Riyadh’s clout in Washington to restrain Trump from pursuing positions that would only escalate regional tensions.

Between the likes of the EU, the UK and China looking to revive relations with Saudi Arabia, and Russia still being a partner in the Opec+ group, the Saudi leadership may find itself the centre of regional attention in 2025.

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James Gavin

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    3 June 2026

     

    Foreign interest in Syria’s oil and gas sector is growing as the government moves to revive the industry and elevated global energy prices improve the economics of new developments.

    A series of agreements signed in recent months has attracted some of the world’s largest energy companies, raising expectations that investment and production could accelerate.

    However, despite growing optimism, significant security, financial and regulatory challenges remain, which could constrain the pace of growth for years to come.

    Military control

    Optimism among foreign businesses about potential opportunities in the country was boosted in January this year when Syria’s central government regained control of most of the country’s oil and gas assets.

    On 13 January 2026, the Syrian government launched an offensive against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the territories of the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria.

    The offensive was initially focused on eastern Aleppo Governorate, around the towns of Deir Hafer and Maskanah, and was expanded on 17 January to include Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor and Al-Hasakah Governorates.

    The offensive eventually led to Syria’s Omar and Conoco fields being seized, as well as the Tanak, Rmeilan and Suwaydiyah fields.

    The Omar field is Syria’s largest oil field and the Conoco field hosts Syria’s largest gas processing plant, which previously supplied several power stations, including the Jandar plant in Homs, one of the country’s largest.

    Before the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, this field produced about 10 million cubic metres of natural gas a day.

    On 18 January, an agreement was signed under which Damascus assumed administrative and security control over all major oil and gas assets previously held by the SDF in the northeast of the country.

    Wider market

    The push to take control of the oil and gas assets came ahead of the US and Israel attacking Iran on 28 February, which led to a regional conflict and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Disruption in the waterway – which normally transports about 20 million barrels a day (b/d) of oil and refined products, as well as around 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas – triggered a surge in global energy prices and sent oil companies scrambling to develop resources that did not rely on the strait as an export route.

    Syria is increasingly being viewed as a potential option for major oil and gas development projects due to its significant unrealised reserves and its geographic position across the Mediterranean from consumer markets in Europe.

    Syria’s production currently stands at around 110,000 b/d, down from a peak of 380,000 b/d in 2011, according to a report published by the US-Syria Business Council in April.

    The country’s recoverable oil reserves are estimated at 2.5 billion barrels, and Syria also has significant gas reserves.

    In April, Yousef Qiblawy, chief executive of the state-owned Syria Petroleum Company (SPC), said his organisation aimed to double national production before 2027 and boost output to 800,000 b/d by the end of 2029, not including offshore production.

    He said: “Before the takeover of the northeast, we were producing 10,000-15,000 b/d.

    “Currently, we are producing 100,000 b/d, and the plan now is to double this production number by the end of this year.”

    He also expressed optimism about the outlook for projects in Syria’s portion of the Mediterranean Sea, saying: “New offshore and onshore exploration is also starting … there are 15 or 17 brand new green blocks, untouched in Syria, with huge reservoirs of oil mainly, and some gas.”

    So far, no offshore wells have been drilled in Syrian waters.

    In 2013, Russia’s Soyuzneftegaz signed an offshore exploration agreement with Damascus, but the project was abandoned during the civil war and never progressed to drilling.

    Making deals

    In recent months, a range of significant deals and meetings has raised expectations for the future of Syria’s oil and gas sector.

    On 11 May, SPC announced plans for Syria’s first-ever offshore oil and gas exploration project.

    The deep-water project is being carried out in partnership with US-based Chevron and Qatar’s UCC Holding.

    SPC said that it had, together with Chevron and UCC Holding, defined the boundaries of the offshore block, paving the way for finalising contracts and starting technical operations this year.

    The three companies previously signed a preliminary deal in February to evaluate offshore oil and gas exploration in Syrian waters.

    On 12 May, France’s TotalEnergies, state-owned QatarEnergy and US-based ConocoPhillips signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with SPC relating to the exploration of Syria’s offshore Block 3.

    Under the terms of the preliminary deal, the companies will carry out a technical review of the area.

    The agreement also established a framework for technical and commercial discussions related to exploration activities on the block.

    ConocoPhillips also signed another MoU in November last year, along with Houston-headquartered Novaterra Energy, focused on developing several gas fields and launching exploration programmes.

    This MoU included an agreement to rehabilitate the gas plant at the Conoco field in Deir ez-Zor province.

    At the time, Qiblawy said the agreement was expected to boost the country’s gas production by 4-5 million cubic metres a day within a year.

    On 8 May, the Croatian oil company INA and Hungary’s MOL announced that they had held a series of meetings with SPC focused on exploring options to restart INA’s oil and gas operations in Syria.

    They said a joint technical team established by INA and SPC was assessing the feasibility of INA resuming operations on its Syrian concessions by evaluating operational, technical, commercial and regulatory conditions.

    In 2011, oil and gas production at INA’s Syrian concessions had reached 37,300 barrels of oil equivalent a day.

    By the time the company suspended operations in Syria in 2012, it had invested approximately $1.1bn in the country and had built a gas processing plant at the Hayan gas field.

    Resuming activities

    In April, the managing director of London-headquartered  met with Syria’s president, Ahmed Al-Sharaa.

    Gulfsands is the official operator of Syria’s Block 26, but for 15 years after the start of the Syrian civil war, it could not access the asset.

    The company declared force majeure in late 2011 and, until recently, it was under the control of the Kurdish-led SDF.

    In a statement released after the April meeting with Syria’s president, John Bell confirmed that his company had recently regained access to Block 26, which he described as “an important milestone for Gulfsands and for Syria”.

    He added: “This development provides a strong foundation for the recommencement of operations and investment.

    “We are now back on the ground in Syria, working closely with SPC to accelerate towards a full resumption of activities.”

    Bell also said that, as a result of a global drive to diversify away from “traditional choke points like the Strait of Hormuz”, Syria had the potential to become “a new world energy hub”.

    In April, Saudi Arabia’s ADES Holding Company signed an implementation contract with SPC to develop several gas fields in Syria.

    In a statement, SPC said the scope of the deal with ADES included executing maintenance and development works on existing wells, in addition to drilling new exploratory wells within the agreed operational areas.

    It added that it expected the deal to increase gas production by 25% within the first six months and by 50% by the end of this year.

    Industry insiders are also watching US-based HKN Energy, which has close ties to the Trump administration, after Qiblawy said in January that the company had expressed interest in entering the Syrian oil and gas sector.

    In April, a statement from the US-Syria Business Council said an MoU with HKN was “in the pipeline”.

    Over recent months, expectations have been building about a potential deal involving US-based oil and gas companies Baker Hughes, Hunt Energy and Argent LNG.

    In July last year, Jonathan Bass, chief executive of Argent LNG, said that the three companies were planning to develop a masterplan for Syria’s oil, gas and power sector.

    It was later reported, in February this year, that the three US-based companies were planning to form a consortium for oil and gas exploration and energy production in northeast Syria.

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    Commenting on his company’s plans in Syria, Argent LNG’s chief executive said: “We're very excited to be realising the visions of US President Donald Trump and Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, bringing the country forward from darkness to light.”

    In a separate statement in April, Hunter Hunt, chief executive and chairman of Hunt Oil Company, said: “President Sharaa’s vision is bold, it is comprehensive, and it is full of execution and getting things done … We like what we see on a forward-looking basis.”

    Challenges remain

    While SPC’s Qiblawy has outlined ambitious targets to increase oil and gas production and international interest in the sector is growing, significant obstacles remain.

    A report published by the US-Syria Business Council in April highlighted several risks facing prospective projects. Among the most significant is the threat posed by Islamic State, particularly to pipeline infrastructure crossing remote desert regions.

    The report warned that securing large stretches of sparsely populated territory remains difficult, increasing the risk of attacks on critical energy infrastructure.

    It also highlighted the possibility of renewed conflict in northeastern Syria, where the SDF previously controlled many of the country’s most important oil and gas assets. According to the report, the current ceasefire remains fragile and any deterioration in relations could reignite territorial disputes.

    Beyond security concerns, international investors continue to face substantial financial and regulatory hurdles.

    Although sanctions on Syria have been eased considerably, the country remains designated by the US as a State Sponsor of Terrorism. As a result, licences are still required for many controlled exports, including oilfield equipment, software and technology.

    Restrictions also remain on support from international financial institutions. The US Export-Import Bank and the US International Development Finance Corporation continue to face limitations on their ability to support projects in Syria, constraining access to capital for large-scale developments.

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    For international energy companies seeking opportunities outside traditional export routes and geopolitical chokepoints, Syria is increasingly emerging as a market with significant long-term potential, albeit one accompanied by substantial risk.

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