meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Middle East’s evolving alliances continue to shift

26 December 2024

 

Within and without, alliances in the Middle East are in a state of flux.

The brittle tensions that pitted three Gulf states against Qatar, before the January 2021 Al-Ula Agreement found an amicable resolution, have given way to burgeoning rapprochement between the UAE and Qatar.

On the other hand, the UAE-Saudi rivalry has intensified in recent years, culminating in late March 2024 in Riyadh’s lodging of an official complaint at the UN General Assembly, rejecting the UAE’s designation of territory adjacent to the kingdom as a protected maritime area.

Differences over the two countries’ Opec strategies, and their approaches to regional conflicts – notably Yemen and Sudan – have also come to the fore.

Latterly, a de-escalation has helped to defuse those tensions. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan have strived to improve relations, with a meeting between the two leaders in late May doing much to stem the fraying of a once-close relationship.

Thawing enmities

The bigger shift in regional relations involves Iran. The Gaza conflict, fanning out to Lebanon, has helped reframe Gulf states’ ties with Tehran.

This was evident in the landmark visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Bahrain in October for a meeting with King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa – the first such visit in 14 years.

With a reputation as the Gulf state most hostile to Iran, Bahrain’s recent diplomatic outreach to Tehran reflects its sense that talking to the enemy is better than isolation, in the context of the current heightened regional tensions.

The Chinese-orchestrated Saudi-Iran agreement of 2023 at least provides a template for Manama to follow.

Bahrain’s overtures to Iran also reflect a new security dynamic in the region.

With Iran-backed militias in Iraq showing themselves capable of dispatching missiles as far as Israel, some regional analysts say the Gulf states’ leaders are increasingly anxious that these Shia militias could just as easily target them.

In this sense, building relationships with the Islamic Republic is one way of ensuring that domestic territory is not targeted by Iranian proxy militias.

China is playing to the crowd. It … is looking to put a wedge between the US and the wider world, including Southeast Asia
Bill Hayton, Chatham House

Beijing’s broadening reach

The region has also found itself increasingly engaged east of the Suez. 

China’s regional role remains a work in progress, with the Saudi-Iran agreement arising out of Beijing’s willingness to offer a non-Western alternative to conflict mediation.

From Riyadh’s point of view, China’s leverage with Iran, primarily through extensive trade and investment links, made it the ideal broker for an agreement that Saudi Arabia views as key to helping dial down the threat posed by Iran.

The backdrop to such Gulf engagements with the likes of Iran and China is the evident reluctance of the US to provide the blanket security guarantees to its regional allies that it once did.

This has incentivised the Gulf states to attempt diplomatic entreaties with regional adversaries, compelled by an understandable need for self-preservation.

This has wider significance, placing China in a more prominent role in influencing regional politics – a sharp contrast with its previous low-key strategy and one that China watchers such as Bill Hayton, Asia-Pacific associate fellow at the thinktank Chatham House, see as being driven by interests rather than by tactical power politics.

For Beijing at least, its involvement in 2023’s Saudi-Iran deal affords an opportunity to reinforce its regional influence, while demonstrating its support for the Palestinian cause – an issue that resonates with many across the region. 

“China is playing to the crowd,” says Hayton. “It has decided that large parts of [the world] don’t like Israel and it is looking to put a wedge between the US and the wider world, including Southeast Asia.”

China is meanwhile looking to deepen relations beyond Iran.

Despite the evident importance it places on maintaining close relations with the Islamic Republic – most notably as the main buyer of the latter’s crude oil exports – China also sees value in building ties with Saudi Arabia.

The recent accession of Saudi Arabia, alongside the UAE, Egypt and Iran, to the Brics geopolitical bloc affords further means for China to expand its influence in the region.

From Saudi Arabia’s point of view, Brics membership could provide opportunities to broaden its engagement beyond the Western powers with which it has been allied for generations.

The Trump factor

Given that when Donald Trump resumes his occupancy of the Oval Office in late January the US is likely to take a maximum-pressure approach towards Iran once again, a more multipolar disposition could offer the Gulf states something of a hedge.

Saudi Arabia could equally find itself in a position to be a conduit between the wider region and the Trump White House.

With inbound Trump appointees including the fiercely pro-Israel Mike Huckabee as the proposed US ambassador to Israel, there is a concern that the White House could give a green light to Israel to annex the West Bank and embed its occupation of Gaza.

The region may then find itself counting on Riyadh’s clout in Washington to restrain Trump from pursuing positions that would only escalate regional tensions.

Between the likes of the EU, the UK and China looking to revive relations with Saudi Arabia, and Russia still being a partner in the Opec+ group, the Saudi leadership may find itself the centre of regional attention in 2025.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13025007/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Contractors submit prices for Upper Zakum expansion project

    16 March 2026

     

    Contractors have submitted commercial proposals for the next expansion phase of the Upper Zakum offshore field development in Abu Dhabi, aimed at increasing the asset’s oil production potential to 1.5 million barrels a day (b/d).

    The offshore oil and gas production business of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Offshore) has divided the UZ 1.5MMBD project’s engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) scope of work into three packages, MEED previously reported.

    Contractors submitted commercial bids for package 1 by the 23 February deadline and for packages 2 and 3 by the 27 February deadline, according to sources. The previous deadline for submission of commercial bids was 15 January.

    Adnoc Offshore is understood to have issued the main tender for EPC works for the UZ 1.5MMBD project in the third quarter of last year.

    Contractors submitted technical bids for package 1 by 21 November, while proposals for packages 2 and 3 were submitted by 14 November, MEED previously reported.

    In November 2024, MEED reported that Adnoc Offshore had awarded a contract for front-end engineering and design (feed) and pre-feed services on the project to France-headquartered contractor Technip Energies.

    A kick-off meeting between Adnoc Offshore and Technip Energies took place on 21 November 2024.

    Located 84 kilometres offshore in Abu Dhabi, Upper Zakum is the world’s second-largest offshore oil field and fourth-largest oil field.

    The UZ 1.5MMBD project is the latest crude output expansion undertaken by Adnoc Offshore at the Upper Zakum field development.

    Upper Zakum expansion

    The first phase of the programme to raise the Upper Zakum offshore field development’s oil production capacity to 1.2 million b/d was launched in 2019. The initial goal was to increase the field’s output potential to 1 million b/d by 2024, which was later increased to 1.2 million b/d, with the project execution timeline eventually extended.

    In April last year, MEED reported that Adnoc Offshore had awarded the main EPC contract for the UZ 1.2MMBD EPC-1 project to UAE-based Target Engineering Construction Company. The value of the contract was estimated to be $825m.

    The project’s main scope involved the EPC of several surface facilities and plants at the Upper Zakum offshore development’s four main artificial islands: Al-Ghallan, Umm Al-Anbar, Ettouk and Asseifiya – also known as Central Island, West Island, North Island and South Island, respectively.

    Spanish contractor Tecnicas Reunidas won the contract for the feed works on the UZ 1.2MMBD EPC-1 project in 2019. UK-headquartered Wood Group was appointed as the project management consultant for the EPC phase.

    In November 2024, MEED reported that Adnoc Offshore had also selected Target for the second phase of the Upper Zakum 1.2 million b/d project (UZ 1.2MMBD EPC-2). The value of the contract was estimated to be about $500m, according to sources.

    Target began work on the project in December last year, MEED previously reported.

    The scope of work on the UZ 1.2MMBD EPC-2 project covers the EPC of several structures on Assefiya Island.

    Adnoc Offshore performed the feed work on the UZ 1.2MMBD EPC-2 project in-house.

    Upper Zakum oil production

    Adnoc Offshore has committed to a total capital expenditure budget of approximately $30bn, along with its operating partners in the Upper Zakum hydrocarbons concession, Japan Oil Development Company (Jodco) and US-based ExxonMobil.

    The strategic objective is to first raise the asset’s oil output from 640,000 b/d to 750,000 b/d through the UZ 750 project, then to 1.2 million b/d through the two phases of the ongoing UZ 1.2MMBD project, and eventually to 1.5 million b/d.

    Zakum Development Company (Zadco), which later merged into Adnoc Offshore, awarded EPC contracts for the UZ 750 project in 2012 and early 2013.

    The $817m first package was awarded to a consortium of Abu Dhabi’s NMDC Energy (then known as National Petroleum Construction Company) and Technip Energies. Package two, the project’s largest EPC package, worth $3.7bn, was awarded to a consortium of UK-headquartered Petrofac and South Korea’s Daewoo Shipbuilding & Engineering.

    EPC work on UZ 750 began in 2014 and was completed in 2022.

    In October 2022, Adnoc Group subsidiary Adnoc Drilling set a world record for drilling the longest oil and gas well at the Upper Zakum concession, stretching 50,000 feet.

    The extended-reach wells will tap into an undeveloped part of the Upper Zakum reservoir, potentially increasing the field’s production capacity by 15,000 b/d without expanding or building any new infrastructure, Adnoc said.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15996020/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Neom cancels The Line tunnels contracts

    16 March 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Neom has cancelled the contracts related to the construction of the tunnel sections of The Line in northwest Saudi Arabia.

    In a stock exchange announcement filed on 13 March, South Korean contractor Hyundai E&C said that Neom cancelled its contract on 29 December last year.

    Hyundai E&C was executing the drill-and-blast section of The Line’s tunnels in a joint venture with Greece’s Archirodon and South Korean counterpart Samsung C&T.

    The firm said its share of the joint venture was about 35%, amounting to $483m.

    Neom awarded contracts for constructing the mountain tunnel sections of The Line in June 2022.

    The drill-and-blast works were split into four packages, with two contracting teams winning two packages each.

    The other joint-venture team comprised Spain’s FCC, the local Shibh Al-Jazira Contracting Company (Sajco) and Beijing-based China State Construction Engineering Corporation. 

    The tunnels formed part of the infrastructure backbone of Neom’s 170-kilometre The Line development, launched in January 2021.

    What began as Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s defining symbol of a post-oil Saudi Arabia unravelled with quiet finality over roughly two years. By April 2024, planners were reportedly being forced to cut the initial phase to just 2.4km by 2030.

    By July last year, with the sovereign wealth fund facing tightening liquidity, the kingdom was reported to have conducted a “strategic review” to determine whether The Line was feasible – a process described as a “recalibration” of Vision 2030.

    Resources are now being directed to projects essential for the Fifa World Cup 2034, Expo 2030, and critical housing, healthcare and education targets.

    According to media reports, the government has pivoted towards repositioning what remains of Neom as an industrial and data centre hub, leveraging the Red Sea coastline’s access to seawater cooling for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.

    READ THE MARCH 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Riyadh urges private sector to take greater role; Chemical players look to spend rationally; Economic uptick lends confidence to Cairo’s reforms.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the March 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15995688/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Bidders get more time for Riyadh East sewage treatment plant

    16 March 2026

     

    State water offtaker Sharakat, formerly Saudi Water Partnership Company (SWPC), has extended the bid submission deadline for the Riyadh East independent sewage treatment plant (ISTP).

    The new deadline is 30 June. The original deadline was 2 April.

    The project will be developed under a build‑own‑operate‑transfer (BOOT) model with a 25‑year concession term.

    The plant will have a treatment capacity of 200,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d) in its first phase, expanding to 500,000 cm/d in the second phase.

    It includes the development of a treated sewage effluent transmission pipeline, forming part of the kingdom’s wider programme to expand wastewater treatment capacity through public-private partnerships.

    The request for proposals (RFP) was issued last October. 

    In 2024, Sharakat prequalified 53 companies that could bid for the Riyadh East ISTP, part of seven planned ISTP projects it said it would procure between 2024 and 2026

    WSP is the technical adviser and KPMG Middle East is the lead and financial adviser on the project.

    The targeted commercial operation date for the facility is 2029.

    ISTP plans

    Sharakat’s current ISTP portfolio includes 10 large plants that are operational, under construction or under tendering, with a combined initial treatment capacity of 1.79 million cm/d.

    These projects include North Taif, Jeddah Airport, West Dammam, Madinah 3, Buraydah 2, Tabuk 2, Al-Haer, Arana, Hadda and Riyadh East. 

    In December, two consortiums were selected for contracts to develop and operate the Hadda and Arana ISTP projects in Mecca province.

    That same month, Sharakat prequalified 63 developers for upcoming ISTP projects under a revised prequalification process.

    According to Sharakat’s newly released seven-year statement, it has identified six additional large ISTPs in the development pipeline.

    These include:

    • Kharj (75,000 cm/d)
    • Abu Arish (50,000)
    • Hafar Al-Batin (100,000)
    • Riyadh North (TBD)
    • Najran South (50,000)
    • Khamis Mushait (50,000)

    The company is also pursuing a nationwide small sewage treatment plant programme covering about 139 smaller ISTPs grouped into seven clusters.

    These are designed to add roughly 521,450 cm/d of additional treatment capacity across the kingdom.

    READ THE MARCH 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Riyadh urges private sector to take greater role; Chemical players look to spend rationally; Economic uptick lends confidence to Cairo’s reforms.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the March 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15993509/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Modon launches Tara Park on Abu Dhabi’s Reem Island

    16 March 2026

    Abu Dhabi-based Modon Holding has launched the Tara Park residential project in the Reem Island area.

    The project comprises two residential towers with a total of 340 residential units.

    The development includes a 527-metre jogging track.

    The latest project launch follows Modon Holding’s launch of the Bashayer residential waterfront community on Hudayriyat Island.

    The project will comprise 157 four- and five-bedroom villas centred around a clubhouse with a rooftop infinity pool, and 330 one- to four-bedroom apartments across two low-rise buildings.

    The development comprises a 3.5-kilometre waterfront promenade and a park.

    In October last year, Modon Holding launched the Maysan residential development on Abu Dhabi’s Reem Island.

    This development covers an area of about 600,000 square metres.

    Maysan is being developed in several phases. The project’s first phase involves developing two districts: Mayar and Thoraya.

    The first district, Mayar, consists of 132 mansions. The four-storey mansions will be located within a gated community featuring a central park and walking trails.

    The second district, Thoraya, features 184 townhouses. It will include gardens, play areas, a gym and other associated facilities.

    READ THE MARCH 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Riyadh urges private sector to take greater role; Chemical players look to spend rationally; Economic uptick lends confidence to Cairo’s reforms.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the March 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15993317/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Jordan begins prequalification for Amman water project

    16 March 2026

    Jordan’s Ministry of Investment has issued a request for qualifications (RFQ) for a non-revenue water (NRW) reduction project in the southern and southeastern areas of Amman.

    The project will be delivered under a public-private partnership (PPP) model using a design, build, finance, operate and maintain structure. It aims to reduce water losses and improve the efficiency of water distribution networks in the targeted areas.

    The initiative is being led by the Ministry of Investment through its PPP unit in collaboration with the Ministry of Water & Irrigation, the Water Authority of Jordan and Miyahuna.

    The procurement is expected to attract international water operators, engineering contractors and infrastructure investors with experience in NRW reduction programmes.

    The bid submission deadline is 23 April.

    Jordan has prioritised reducing NRW as part of efforts to improve the efficiency of its water sector. The country is among the most water-scarce in the world, and losses from distribution networks are estimated to account for about 45% of water supplied.

    NRW reduction programmes typically involve measures such as network rehabilitation, leak detection, pressure management and improved metering to reduce physical and commercial losses across water systems.

    Jordan is also advancing its $6bn Aqaba-Amman water desalination and conveyance project that aims to meet about 40% of Jordan’s municipal water demand by 2040.

    As MEED recently reported, the project is nearing financial close. Once complete, it will supply about 300 million cubic metres of potable water a year from the Red Sea to Amman and other regions.

    In February, the Water Authority of Jordan signed a four-year performance-based management contract with France’s Veolia to support water and wastewater services in the country’s northern governorates.

    Under the contract, Veolia will provide operations, maintenance and management services to Yarmouk Water Company, the public utility responsible for water supply and wastewater services in the region.

    READ THE MARCH 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Riyadh urges private sector to take greater role; Chemical players look to spend rationally; Economic uptick lends confidence to Cairo’s reforms.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the March 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15993071/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall