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Middle East’s evolving alliances continue to shift

26 December 2024

 

Within and without, alliances in the Middle East are in a state of flux.

The brittle tensions that pitted three Gulf states against Qatar, before the January 2021 Al-Ula Agreement found an amicable resolution, have given way to burgeoning rapprochement between the UAE and Qatar.

On the other hand, the UAE-Saudi rivalry has intensified in recent years, culminating in late March 2024 in Riyadh’s lodging of an official complaint at the UN General Assembly, rejecting the UAE’s designation of territory adjacent to the kingdom as a protected maritime area.

Differences over the two countries’ Opec strategies, and their approaches to regional conflicts – notably Yemen and Sudan – have also come to the fore.

Latterly, a de-escalation has helped to defuse those tensions. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan have strived to improve relations, with a meeting between the two leaders in late May doing much to stem the fraying of a once-close relationship.

Thawing enmities

The bigger shift in regional relations involves Iran. The Gaza conflict, fanning out to Lebanon, has helped reframe Gulf states’ ties with Tehran.

This was evident in the landmark visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Bahrain in October for a meeting with King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa – the first such visit in 14 years.

With a reputation as the Gulf state most hostile to Iran, Bahrain’s recent diplomatic outreach to Tehran reflects its sense that talking to the enemy is better than isolation, in the context of the current heightened regional tensions.

The Chinese-orchestrated Saudi-Iran agreement of 2023 at least provides a template for Manama to follow.

Bahrain’s overtures to Iran also reflect a new security dynamic in the region.

With Iran-backed militias in Iraq showing themselves capable of dispatching missiles as far as Israel, some regional analysts say the Gulf states’ leaders are increasingly anxious that these Shia militias could just as easily target them.

In this sense, building relationships with the Islamic Republic is one way of ensuring that domestic territory is not targeted by Iranian proxy militias.

China is playing to the crowd. It … is looking to put a wedge between the US and the wider world, including Southeast Asia
Bill Hayton, Chatham House

Beijing’s broadening reach

The region has also found itself increasingly engaged east of the Suez. 

China’s regional role remains a work in progress, with the Saudi-Iran agreement arising out of Beijing’s willingness to offer a non-Western alternative to conflict mediation.

From Riyadh’s point of view, China’s leverage with Iran, primarily through extensive trade and investment links, made it the ideal broker for an agreement that Saudi Arabia views as key to helping dial down the threat posed by Iran.

The backdrop to such Gulf engagements with the likes of Iran and China is the evident reluctance of the US to provide the blanket security guarantees to its regional allies that it once did.

This has incentivised the Gulf states to attempt diplomatic entreaties with regional adversaries, compelled by an understandable need for self-preservation.

This has wider significance, placing China in a more prominent role in influencing regional politics – a sharp contrast with its previous low-key strategy and one that China watchers such as Bill Hayton, Asia-Pacific associate fellow at the thinktank Chatham House, see as being driven by interests rather than by tactical power politics.

For Beijing at least, its involvement in 2023’s Saudi-Iran deal affords an opportunity to reinforce its regional influence, while demonstrating its support for the Palestinian cause – an issue that resonates with many across the region. 

“China is playing to the crowd,” says Hayton. “It has decided that large parts of [the world] don’t like Israel and it is looking to put a wedge between the US and the wider world, including Southeast Asia.”

China is meanwhile looking to deepen relations beyond Iran.

Despite the evident importance it places on maintaining close relations with the Islamic Republic – most notably as the main buyer of the latter’s crude oil exports – China also sees value in building ties with Saudi Arabia.

The recent accession of Saudi Arabia, alongside the UAE, Egypt and Iran, to the Brics geopolitical bloc affords further means for China to expand its influence in the region.

From Saudi Arabia’s point of view, Brics membership could provide opportunities to broaden its engagement beyond the Western powers with which it has been allied for generations.

The Trump factor

Given that when Donald Trump resumes his occupancy of the Oval Office in late January the US is likely to take a maximum-pressure approach towards Iran once again, a more multipolar disposition could offer the Gulf states something of a hedge.

Saudi Arabia could equally find itself in a position to be a conduit between the wider region and the Trump White House.

With inbound Trump appointees including the fiercely pro-Israel Mike Huckabee as the proposed US ambassador to Israel, there is a concern that the White House could give a green light to Israel to annex the West Bank and embed its occupation of Gaza.

The region may then find itself counting on Riyadh’s clout in Washington to restrain Trump from pursuing positions that would only escalate regional tensions.

Between the likes of the EU, the UK and China looking to revive relations with Saudi Arabia, and Russia still being a partner in the Opec+ group, the Saudi leadership may find itself the centre of regional attention in 2025.

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James Gavin

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    > This package also includes: Damage avoidance frames debt issuance

    Both the number and value of initial public offerings (IPOs) in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) fell in 2025. Any hopes that the trend might be turned around this year have largely disappeared thanks to the Iran war.

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    One reason for this was the notable slowdown in the UAE, where confidence may have been dented by the poor performance of several new listings in recent years. In 2025, there were just three IPOs across the UAE’s markets, compared to seven the year before. 

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    Saudi Arabia was by far the most active market last year – maintaining its position as the dominant bourse in the region. It hosted 39 IPOs, including 15 on the Tadawul main market and 24 on the junior Nomu market. Between them, these raised $4.9bn, or two-thirds of the regional total, with the majority coming via the main market listings. 

    Across the other GCC states, there were just two listings: Asyad Shipping Company on the Muscat Stock Exchange, which netted proceeds of $333m in March 2025, and Action Energy Company on the Boursa Kuwait, which raised $180m in December. 

    Bahrain and Qatar saw no new listings and the total of 44 IPOs for the six-country Gulf bloc was the lowest since 2021. 

    Activity outside the Gulf was even more limited, although the five IPOs last year – three on Morocco’s Casablanca Stock Exchange and two on the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) – was the most since 2018. 

    These listings raised a little more than $700m between them, with the largest being the $525m secured by construction company Societe Generale des Travaux du Maroc on the Casablanca bourse late in the year.

    The mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market proved more robust in 2025, with 635 deals completed in the region last year. That marked a 33% year-on-year rise and saw the market return to its 2022 peak, according to global professional services company PwC.

    The total included 238 inbound M&A deals, up from 182 the year before – and was the first significant rise in foreign investment since 2023. From within the region, sovereign wealth funds played a central role, in line with their mandates to help diversify their home economies.

    The total of 44 IPOs for the six-country Gulf bloc [in 2025] was the lowest since 2021

    Optimism dampened

    At the turn of the year there had been some optimism about the potential for the IPO market to also start accelerating. In a report in January, Fitch Ratings said: “The initial public offering and debt capital market pipelines [in the GCC] remain robust into 2026.” 

    EY said 18 companies and funds had expressed an intention to list in the first quarter, including 16 in Saudi Arabia alone.

    The reality has been very different, with just a handful of listings across the Arab world in the first quarter of the year. 

    Among the few deals, high-end supermarket chain Gourmet Egypt listed on the EGX on 1 February, raising $28m and, in the process, becoming the first food and beverage retailer on the exchange.

    The market in the Gulf has almost dried up, although a couple of deals have gone ahead since the war began on 28 February. 

    There was just one new listing on the Saudi Tadawul in the first quarter, with construction firm Saleh Abdulaziz Al-Rashed & Sons raising $67m via its debut on 11 March.

    Retailer Trolley General Trading Company also listed on the Premier Market of Boursa Kuwait via a private placement in March. EFG Hermes, which acted as a global coordinator and bookrunner on the transaction, said the size of the offer had been increased from 30% of the company’s issued share capital to 35% due to strong investor demand, with total proceeds reaching $195m. 

    Co-head of investment banking at EFG Hermes, Karim Meleka, described it as “a successful transaction in an uncertain market”. It was also the largest IPO in the Middle East and Africa in Q1 2026, according to financial data provider Dealogic. 

    The prospects for the rest of the year have been badly dented by the war, in line with the dimmer economic outlook. In its latest forecast, issued in April, the World Bank said it expects GDP growth across the GCC to slow to 1.3% this year, compared to the prediction of 4.4% growth it made in January. 

    If a lasting peace deal can be agreed, then some sectors could see a quick rebound, but some key areas of economic activity, such as tourism, could take far longer to recover. And the pain will not be evenly spread. The World Bank expects Saudi Arabia will post 3.1% growth in GDP this year, but the economies of Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar will contract by 8.6%, 6.4% and 5.7%, respectively.

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  • Damage avoidance frames debt issuance

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    It is still early days, but Gulf fixed-income markets appear to have averted the worst of the conflict, with limited selloffs witnessed during the first six weeks of the Iran war.

    This reflects a strong tailwind for GCC debt capital markets (DCM) in 2026, for both conventional and sukuk (Islamic bonds) – even if geopolitical turmoil may upend issuers’ best-laid plans. 

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    Last year proved an active one for Gulf DCM issuance. Overall, GCC countries accounted for 35% of all emerging market dollar debt issuance in 2025 (excluding China). According to Kuwait-based Markaz, primary debt issuances of bonds and sukuk in the GCC amounted to $189.47bn, through 515 issuances, up 28.13% on 2024.

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    Saudi banks’ interest in bonds is driven by a need to support loan activity, with credit outpacing deposits. Issuing bonds will help close a rise in the loan-deposit ratio, which is well above 100%. 

    “You would expect to see probably a lower level of issuance in Saudi Arabia, where the banks were contributing to a significant amount of issuance. They will probably see lower landing growth this year, which could result in lower overall refinancing needs,” says Damak. 

    The UAE is another prominent Gulf issuer that entered 2026 with a robust pipeline of DCM activity in the works. 

    Last year, issuance of $47.71bn absorbed a quarter of all GCC issuance, a 24% increase on 2024. That put it comfortably ahead of Kuwait on $23.7bn, and Qatar on $22.47bn, although one of the fastest increases in DCM issuance last year was from Bahrain, which raised $11.24bn, a 63% increase on the previous year.

    UAE DCM was expected to exceed $350bn this year, notes Fitch Ratings, supported by strong sukuk issuance and the need to diversify funding sources. Dollar sukuk issuance in the UAE last year grew on 21.4% in 2024.

    Ceasefire dependency

    Much will inevitably hinge on the evolution of the Iran conflict. Here, it may pay to take the long-lens view, say analysts. “The liquidity declines observed in the Middle East and North Africa and GCC sukuk are unlikely to be permanent,” says Fitch’s Al-Natoor. 

    “As stability returns and the ceasefire holds, liquidity is expected to gradually recover, although the pace of recovery will be heavily dependent on investor confidence and sentiment.”

    Al-Natoor emphasises that the market itself has not undergone a structural transformation. Instead, some investors have repriced risk and adjusted premiums to reflect heightened geopolitical uncertainty. 

    “This distinction matters, as the underlying fundamentals of GCC credit remain intact, with the majority of issuers holding stable outlooks. Notably, the number of GCC issuers placed on Rating Watch Negative increased during this period, reflecting elevated uncertainty.”

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    “We continue to see subdued dollar-denominated issuance, although some local currency activity persists.” 

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  • Conflict tests UAE diversification

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    Commentary
    John Bambridge
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    The UAE entered 2026 as the region’s strongest economic performer, with GDP forecast at 5% and construction output at a record $59bn. The Iran conflict that began on 28 February did not simply damage assets; it stress-tested the structural assumptions underpinning that performance.

    This occurred across a clear fault line. Sectors with state depth behind them have largely held; sectors built on openness and connectivity have not.

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    What the ceasefire opens is a recovery window, not an immediate reversal of impacts. Traveller confidence, insurer risk pricing and carrier route economics do not normalise with a political announcement. The summer travel season, which begins in May, will provide the first measurable answer to how much of the pre-conflict model is recoverable – and how quickly.

     

    MEED’s May 2026 report on the UAE includes:

    > GVT &: ECONOMY: UAE economy absorbs multi-sector shock
    > BANKING: UAE banks ready to weather the storm
    > ATTACKS: UAE counts energy infrastructure costs
    > UPSTREAM: Adnoc builds long-term oil and gas production potential
    > DOWNSTREAM: Adnoc Gas to rally UAE downstream project spending
    > POWER: Large-scale IPPs drive UAE power market
    > WATER: UAE water investment broadens beyond desalination
    > CONSTRUCTION: War casts shadow over UAE construction boom
    > TRANSPORT: UAE rail momentum grows as trade routes face strain

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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    John Bambridge
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    22 April 2026

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    The engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract covers new substations at multiple voltage levels. It also includes the supply and installation of 400kV extra-high-voltage power cables.

    The project is divided into the following packages:

    • Substation packages S1 and S2 cover new 132/11kV substations  
    • Package S3 covers new 66/11kV substations
    • Package S4 includes a new 400/220/132kV substation, along with upgrades and modifications to existing 400kV and 220kV substations
    • Package S5 covers new 132/11kV substations and upgrades to existing 132kV and 66kV substations
    • Cable packages C1 and C2 cover 400kV cables

    The bid bond is set at QR7m ($1.9m) for the full tender, while bids for individual packages require a QR1m ($0.27m) bond per package. 

    Kahramaa stated that foreign companies not registered in Qatar may participate, subject to meeting specified conditions, including registration and certification requirements.

    It added that it may increase or decrease the scope during the contract period in line with Qatar’s Tenders & Auctions Law.

    Kahramaa procurement plan

    Kahramaa’s 2026 procurement plan includes 198 tenders with a total estimated value of QR21.4bn ($5.9bn).

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    Additionally, there are 64 planned electricity distribution projects managed by the Electricity Distribution Department that cover the medium-voltage and low-voltage networks throughout Doha and the regional municipalities. 

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16513966/main.jpg
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