Middle East’s evolving alliances continue to shift
26 December 2024
Within and without, alliances in the Middle East are in a state of flux.
The brittle tensions that pitted three Gulf states against Qatar, before the January 2021 Al-Ula Agreement found an amicable resolution, have given way to burgeoning rapprochement between the UAE and Qatar.
On the other hand, the UAE-Saudi rivalry has intensified in recent years, culminating in late March 2024 in Riyadh’s lodging of an official complaint at the UN General Assembly, rejecting the UAE’s designation of territory adjacent to the kingdom as a protected maritime area.
Differences over the two countries’ Opec strategies, and their approaches to regional conflicts – notably Yemen and Sudan – have also come to the fore.
Latterly, a de-escalation has helped to defuse those tensions. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan have strived to improve relations, with a meeting between the two leaders in late May doing much to stem the fraying of a once-close relationship.
Thawing enmities
The bigger shift in regional relations involves Iran. The Gaza conflict, fanning out to Lebanon, has helped reframe Gulf states’ ties with Tehran.
This was evident in the landmark visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Bahrain in October for a meeting with King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa – the first such visit in 14 years.
With a reputation as the Gulf state most hostile to Iran, Bahrain’s recent diplomatic outreach to Tehran reflects its sense that talking to the enemy is better than isolation, in the context of the current heightened regional tensions.
The Chinese-orchestrated Saudi-Iran agreement of 2023 at least provides a template for Manama to follow.
Bahrain’s overtures to Iran also reflect a new security dynamic in the region.
With Iran-backed militias in Iraq showing themselves capable of dispatching missiles as far as Israel, some regional analysts say the Gulf states’ leaders are increasingly anxious that these Shia militias could just as easily target them.
In this sense, building relationships with the Islamic Republic is one way of ensuring that domestic territory is not targeted by Iranian proxy militias.
China is playing to the crowd. It … is looking to put a wedge between the US and the wider world, including Southeast Asia
Bill Hayton, Chatham House
Beijing’s broadening reach
The region has also found itself increasingly engaged east of the Suez.
China’s regional role remains a work in progress, with the Saudi-Iran agreement arising out of Beijing’s willingness to offer a non-Western alternative to conflict mediation.
From Riyadh’s point of view, China’s leverage with Iran, primarily through extensive trade and investment links, made it the ideal broker for an agreement that Saudi Arabia views as key to helping dial down the threat posed by Iran.
The backdrop to such Gulf engagements with the likes of Iran and China is the evident reluctance of the US to provide the blanket security guarantees to its regional allies that it once did.
This has incentivised the Gulf states to attempt diplomatic entreaties with regional adversaries, compelled by an understandable need for self-preservation.
This has wider significance, placing China in a more prominent role in influencing regional politics – a sharp contrast with its previous low-key strategy and one that China watchers such as Bill Hayton, Asia-Pacific associate fellow at the thinktank Chatham House, see as being driven by interests rather than by tactical power politics.
For Beijing at least, its involvement in 2023’s Saudi-Iran deal affords an opportunity to reinforce its regional influence, while demonstrating its support for the Palestinian cause – an issue that resonates with many across the region.
“China is playing to the crowd,” says Hayton. “It has decided that large parts of [the world] don’t like Israel and it is looking to put a wedge between the US and the wider world, including Southeast Asia.”
China is meanwhile looking to deepen relations beyond Iran.
Despite the evident importance it places on maintaining close relations with the Islamic Republic – most notably as the main buyer of the latter’s crude oil exports – China also sees value in building ties with Saudi Arabia.
The recent accession of Saudi Arabia, alongside the UAE, Egypt and Iran, to the Brics geopolitical bloc affords further means for China to expand its influence in the region.
From Saudi Arabia’s point of view, Brics membership could provide opportunities to broaden its engagement beyond the Western powers with which it has been allied for generations.
The Trump factor
Given that when Donald Trump resumes his occupancy of the Oval Office in late January the US is likely to take a maximum-pressure approach towards Iran once again, a more multipolar disposition could offer the Gulf states something of a hedge.
Saudi Arabia could equally find itself in a position to be a conduit between the wider region and the Trump White House.
With inbound Trump appointees including the fiercely pro-Israel Mike Huckabee as the proposed US ambassador to Israel, there is a concern that the White House could give a green light to Israel to annex the West Bank and embed its occupation of Gaza.
The region may then find itself counting on Riyadh’s clout in Washington to restrain Trump from pursuing positions that would only escalate regional tensions.
Between the likes of the EU, the UK and China looking to revive relations with Saudi Arabia, and Russia still being a partner in the Opec+ group, the Saudi leadership may find itself the centre of regional attention in 2025.
Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.
Exclusive from Meed
-
Houthi truce collapse widens Gulf risk map15 July 2026
-
Saudi Downtown awards Al-Khobar infrastructure deal15 July 2026
-
Saudi Arabia opens third round of gas-fired IPPs15 July 2026
-
-
All of this is only 1% of what MEED.com has to offer
Subscribe now and unlock all the 153,671 articles on MEED.com
- All the latest news, data, and market intelligence across MENA at your fingerprints
- First-hand updates and inside information on projects, clients and competitors that matter to you
- 20 years' archive of information, data, and news for you to access at your convenience
- Strategize to succeed and minimise risks with timely analysis of current and future market trends
Related Articles
-
Houthi truce collapse widens Gulf risk map
15 July 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
The Houthis’ declaration ending the de facto truce with Saudi Arabia has significantly increased the likelihood of renewed attacks on Red Sea shipping and regional infrastructure, broadening the threat environment beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
S&P Global Market Intelligence says the 13 July exchange is best understood as a potential widening of the renewed US-Iran escalation cycle into the Yemen and Red Sea theatres.
Houthi claims that Saudi Arabia was responsible for a strike on Sanaa International airport have not been independently confirmed. Saudi Arabia had not formally commented at the time the analysis was written.
The Yemeni militant group is likely to use the incident as a trigger that allows it to justify renewed military action while aligning with Iran’s wider effort to impose costs on US and Gulf interests, according to the research firm.
The decision to declare an end to de-escalation with Riyadh materially increases the likelihood of further missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) activity against infrastructure near the Yemen-Saudi border, as well as renewed pressure on maritime routes in the Red Sea and Bab Al-Mandab.
Aviation exposure
The resumption of direct hostilities broadens the range of vessels and ports likely to be subject to Houthi targeting, and presents severe risk to airports and stationary aircraft, S&P Global Market Intelligence says.
While the Houthis would probably not intentionally down civilian aircraft, there is a significant risk to aircraft in flight, particularly at lower altitudes close to airports, due to incoming UAVs and missiles and interceptor activity.
The broader risk is to regional logistics rather than any single target set, the analysis says.
If escalation around the Strait of Hormuz coincides with renewed Houthi activity in the southern Red Sea, Bab Al-Mandab and the Gulf of Aden, commercial operators face a more complex dual-chokepoint environment, with the added likelihood that the Houthis will seek to target Hormuz bypass infrastructure across the Gulf.
That would raise the likelihood of shipping delays, higher insurance costs, more conservative routing decisions and greater interest in alternative corridors or bypass routes.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17680608/main.jpg -
Saudi Downtown awards Al-Khobar infrastructure deal
15 July 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
Saudi Downtown Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Public Investment Fund (PIF), has awarded a contract for infrastructure works in downtown Al-Khobar.
The contract was awarded to local contractor Ansab General Contracting Company.
The scope of work includes the design and development of overall infrastructure, road networks and street lighting for the downtown Al-Khobar project.
Saudi Downtown Company was officially launched in 2022 by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, who is also chairman of PIF.
At the time, the company announced plans to develop downtown areas in 12 cities across the kingdom: Medina, Al-Khobar, Al-Ahsa, Buraidah, Najran, Jizan, Hail, Al-Baha, Arar, Taif, Dumat Al-Jandal and Tabuk.
SDC’s mandate is to develop more than 10 million square metres of land across its projects
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17677176/main.jpg -
Saudi Arabia opens third round of gas-fired IPPs
15 July 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
Principal buyer Saudi Power Procurement Company (SPPC) has opened the qualification process for the third round of conventional independent power projects (IPPs) using combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) technology.
The round is being tendered under the supervision of the Ministry of Energy. Each plant will be built with provision for carbon capture unit readiness, allowing the technology to be deployed at a later stage.
Each project will be developed on a build-own-operate (BOO) basis, with the winning consortium taking 100% equity in a special purpose vehicle (SPV) set up to develop and operate the plant.
Each SPV will sign a power purchase agreement with SPPC, which is licensed by the Saudi Electricity Regulatory Authority (SERA) to prepare preliminary studies, tender and award IPPs, and purchase electricity from energy projects in the kingdom.
The programme forms part of Saudi Arabia’s Circular Carbon Economy approach, which underpins the energy sector element of the Vision 2030 strategy. Riyadh is displacing liquid fuels with natural gas in power generation to cut emissions intensity, while designing new plants so that carbon capture equipment can be retrofitted in support of national emissions targets.
In April, Acwa and Saudi Energy (formerly Saudi Electricity Company) signed a 31-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with SPPC for the Rabigh 2 IPP expansion.
The project involves the development of a CCGT plant in the Mecca region. It will have a total capacity of 2,313.5MW.
The contract is valued at SR11.5bn ($3.07bn), the companies said in separate stock exchange filings.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17676286/main.jpg -
Dubai selects contractor for Al-Maktoum airport people mover
15 July 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
Dubai Aviation Engineering Projects (DAEP) has selected a contractor to deliver the automated people-mover system as part of the first phase of the $35bn expansion of Al-Maktoum International airport.
A team of Japan’s Mitsubishi Corporation and Indian contractor Larsen & Toubro is the selected contractor.
The automated people-mover system will serve as a critical facility for operations at Al-Maktoum International airport. The system will run under the apron of the entire airfield and the airport’s terminals. It will consist of multiple tracks, taking passengers from the terminals to the concourses.
Four underground stations will be built as part of the first phase. The overall plan includes 14 stations across the airport.
The firms submitted the bids for the project in July last year, as MEED exclusively reported.
The contract is the latest in a series of awards signed by DAEP recently. DAEP has awarded contracts valued at about AED13bn, with construction works currently under way on several airport packages.
These include enabling works, the second runway, and the initial structural foundations for passenger terminals and gates.
Upcoming awards
In June, DAEP said that it will award contracts worth over AED55bn ($15bn) by the end of this year for construction works at Al-Maktoum International airport.
The projects slated for contract awards include the substructure works for the Western Passenger Terminal, the fourth aircraft concourse building and the baggage handling system, in addition to the superstructure works for the Western Passenger Terminal and the first, second and third aircraft concourses.
The packages also encompass long-span structural frameworks for buildings covering about 1.5 million square metres (sq m), infrastructure works for the southern airfield area, and power generation and district cooling plants supporting the construction programme.
The award of the facade and roofing packages is also planned for this year.
Construction progress
In May last year, MEED exclusively reported that DAEP had awarded a AED1bn ($272m) deal to UAE firm Binladin Contracting Group to construct the second runway at the airport.
The enabling works on the terminal were awarded to Abu Dhabi-based Tristar E&C.
Construction on the project’s first phase is expected to be completed by 2032.
Construction on substructure works began in November last year, when DAEP formally selected a contractor to deliver the package.
The government approved the updated designs and timelines for its largest construction project in April 2024.
In a statement, the authorities said the plan is for all operations from Dubai International airport to be transferred to Al-Maktoum International within 10 years.
According to an official description on DAEP’s website, the expanded airport’s West Terminal will be a seven-level, 800,000 sq m facility with an annual capacity of 45 million passengers.
It will be the second of three terminals at Al-Maktoum International airport.
In September 2024, MEED exclusively reported that a team comprising Austria’s Coop Himmelb(l)au and Lebanon’s Dar Al-Handasah had been confirmed as the lead masterplanning and design consultants on the expansion of Al-Maktoum airport.
The airport’s construction is planned to be undertaken in three phases. The airport will cover an area of 70 square kilometres south of Dubai and will have five parallel runways and 430 aircraft gates.
It will be five times the size of the existing Dubai International airport and will have the world’s largest passenger-handling capacity of 260 million passengers a year. For cargo, it will have the capacity to handle 12 million tonnes a year.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17674721/main.png -
Chinese contractor wins Kuwait investment authority HQ
15 July 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
Beijing-headquartered China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) has won a contract to build the permanent headquarters of the Kuwait Direct Investment Promotion Authority (KDIPA).
The contract covers the construction of a 275-metre, 55-storey office tower located in Kuwait City’s Sharq district. The project is expected to be completed by 2028.
According to results published on the Kuwait Central Agency for Public Tenders (Capt) website, the firm initially submitted a bid of $233m, as MEED reported in January. The tender was issued on 19 October 2025 and bids were submitted on 18 November, MEED reported.
The contract is the latest in a series of high-profile projects signed by CSCEC in the GCC region this year. Last month, it won a contract to deliver the Janadriyah cultural district at Qiddiya entertainment city on the outskirts of Riyadh. The contract was awarded by gigaproject developer Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC).
The scope covers the construction of six structures, including a heritage building, a gateway hotel, a wadi hotel, a creative hub, a community centre and an open-air market.
In June, MEED exclusively reported that QIC had awarded CSCEC a contract to build a new transport hub at Qiddiya entertainment city.
The project is located within the resort core zone of the development.
Kuwait market overview
UK analytics firm GlobalData expects Kuwait’s construction industry to average annual growth of 4.9% in 2026-29, supported by government investment in renewable energy and transport infrastructure.
In September 2025, Kuwait’s government allocated KD1.3bn ($4.2bn) for 141 projects, as part of its capital spending during the fiscal year 2025-26. This allocation was intended for 162 current projects and 17 new projects.
According to government data, as of September 2025, the country had around 300 active projects, valued at about KD35.3bn ($115bn), with large infrastructure projects making up nearly half of that total.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17674440/main.jpg