meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Middle East’s evolving alliances continue to shift

26 December 2024

 

Within and without, alliances in the Middle East are in a state of flux.

The brittle tensions that pitted three Gulf states against Qatar, before the January 2021 Al-Ula Agreement found an amicable resolution, have given way to burgeoning rapprochement between the UAE and Qatar.

On the other hand, the UAE-Saudi rivalry has intensified in recent years, culminating in late March 2024 in Riyadh’s lodging of an official complaint at the UN General Assembly, rejecting the UAE’s designation of territory adjacent to the kingdom as a protected maritime area.

Differences over the two countries’ Opec strategies, and their approaches to regional conflicts – notably Yemen and Sudan – have also come to the fore.

Latterly, a de-escalation has helped to defuse those tensions. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan have strived to improve relations, with a meeting between the two leaders in late May doing much to stem the fraying of a once-close relationship.

Thawing enmities

The bigger shift in regional relations involves Iran. The Gaza conflict, fanning out to Lebanon, has helped reframe Gulf states’ ties with Tehran.

This was evident in the landmark visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Bahrain in October for a meeting with King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa – the first such visit in 14 years.

With a reputation as the Gulf state most hostile to Iran, Bahrain’s recent diplomatic outreach to Tehran reflects its sense that talking to the enemy is better than isolation, in the context of the current heightened regional tensions.

The Chinese-orchestrated Saudi-Iran agreement of 2023 at least provides a template for Manama to follow.

Bahrain’s overtures to Iran also reflect a new security dynamic in the region.

With Iran-backed militias in Iraq showing themselves capable of dispatching missiles as far as Israel, some regional analysts say the Gulf states’ leaders are increasingly anxious that these Shia militias could just as easily target them.

In this sense, building relationships with the Islamic Republic is one way of ensuring that domestic territory is not targeted by Iranian proxy militias.

China is playing to the crowd. It … is looking to put a wedge between the US and the wider world, including Southeast Asia
Bill Hayton, Chatham House

Beijing’s broadening reach

The region has also found itself increasingly engaged east of the Suez. 

China’s regional role remains a work in progress, with the Saudi-Iran agreement arising out of Beijing’s willingness to offer a non-Western alternative to conflict mediation.

From Riyadh’s point of view, China’s leverage with Iran, primarily through extensive trade and investment links, made it the ideal broker for an agreement that Saudi Arabia views as key to helping dial down the threat posed by Iran.

The backdrop to such Gulf engagements with the likes of Iran and China is the evident reluctance of the US to provide the blanket security guarantees to its regional allies that it once did.

This has incentivised the Gulf states to attempt diplomatic entreaties with regional adversaries, compelled by an understandable need for self-preservation.

This has wider significance, placing China in a more prominent role in influencing regional politics – a sharp contrast with its previous low-key strategy and one that China watchers such as Bill Hayton, Asia-Pacific associate fellow at the thinktank Chatham House, see as being driven by interests rather than by tactical power politics.

For Beijing at least, its involvement in 2023’s Saudi-Iran deal affords an opportunity to reinforce its regional influence, while demonstrating its support for the Palestinian cause – an issue that resonates with many across the region. 

“China is playing to the crowd,” says Hayton. “It has decided that large parts of [the world] don’t like Israel and it is looking to put a wedge between the US and the wider world, including Southeast Asia.”

China is meanwhile looking to deepen relations beyond Iran.

Despite the evident importance it places on maintaining close relations with the Islamic Republic – most notably as the main buyer of the latter’s crude oil exports – China also sees value in building ties with Saudi Arabia.

The recent accession of Saudi Arabia, alongside the UAE, Egypt and Iran, to the Brics geopolitical bloc affords further means for China to expand its influence in the region.

From Saudi Arabia’s point of view, Brics membership could provide opportunities to broaden its engagement beyond the Western powers with which it has been allied for generations.

The Trump factor

Given that when Donald Trump resumes his occupancy of the Oval Office in late January the US is likely to take a maximum-pressure approach towards Iran once again, a more multipolar disposition could offer the Gulf states something of a hedge.

Saudi Arabia could equally find itself in a position to be a conduit between the wider region and the Trump White House.

With inbound Trump appointees including the fiercely pro-Israel Mike Huckabee as the proposed US ambassador to Israel, there is a concern that the White House could give a green light to Israel to annex the West Bank and embed its occupation of Gaza.

The region may then find itself counting on Riyadh’s clout in Washington to restrain Trump from pursuing positions that would only escalate regional tensions.

Between the likes of the EU, the UK and China looking to revive relations with Saudi Arabia, and Russia still being a partner in the Opec+ group, the Saudi leadership may find itself the centre of regional attention in 2025.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13025007/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Kuwait receives bids for Al-Khairan phase one IWPP

    2 June 2026

     

    Two developer consortiums have submitted bids for the first phase of Kuwait’s Al-Khairan independent water and power producer (IWPP) project, according to a source.

    Bids were received by the Kuwait Authority for Partnership Projects (Kapp) on 1 June.

    The facility will have a capacity of 1,800MW and 150,000 cubic metres a day of desalinated water. It will be located in Al-Khairan, adjacent to the Al-Zour South thermal plant. 

    The bidders include:

    • Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa) / A H Al-Sagar & Brothers (Saudi Arabia) 
    • Acwa (Saudi Arabia) / Gulf Investment Corporation (Kuwait)

    The Al-Khairan IWPP is being procured by Kapp in partnership with the Ministry of Electricity, Water & Renewable Energy (MEWRE).

    The main contract was tendered last September. Three consortiums and two individual companies were previously prequalified to participate in the tender.

    Ernst & Young, BNP Paribas, AtkinsRealis and Addleshaw Goddard are financial advisers on the project. Chadbourne & Parke is acting as legal adviser.

    The winning bidder will sign a set of public-private partnership agreements covering financing, design, construction, operation and transfer of the project. The energy conversion and water-purchase agreement is expected to cover a 25-year supply period.

    Future phases

    The Al-Khairan IWPP project is expected to run on low-sulphur fuel oil as the primary fuel and to accommodate crude oil, gas oil and natural gas as backup fuels. Future phases will further expand capacity.

    It is understood that the estimated $750m second phase of the Al-Khairan IWPP project will add a further 1,800MW of generation capacity through a combined-cycle gas-fired power plant.

    The project, first mooted over a decade ago, remains in the early development stages, with no plans currently to advance to procurement in 2026, a source said.

    According to the source, the immediate focus is on advancing plans for the 3,600MW Nuwaiseeb power and water desalination IWPP project.

    The Nuwaiseeb IWPP plant will have a desalination capacity of 75 million imperial gallons a day.

    Kapp plans to release a transaction advisory tender for the project by the end of the year.

    > Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17072685/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Doosan confirms Saudi Jafurah 2 cogen contract

    2 June 2026

    South Korea’s Doosan Enerbility has confirmed it has signed an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract worth about $556m for the second phase of the Jafurah combined heat and power (CHP) plant in Saudi Arabia.

    The project is being developed by Korea Electric Power Corporation (Kepco) in partnership with Saudi Aramco.

    Doosan said the contract covers design, equipment supply, installation, construction and commissioning of the facility.

    The Jafurah CHP phase 2 project will be built near the Jafurah gas field, about 400 kilometres east of Riyadh. Once operational, it will generate 330MW of electricity and produce 465 tonnes of steam an hour for the nearby gas field.

    According to the firm, the project’s main steam turbine will be supplied by Doosan Skoda Power, a subsidiary of Doosan Enerbility.

    WSP is acting as the project management consultant for the project, which is scheduled for completion in 2029.

    The Jafurah gas development is part of Aramco’s $3.2bn unconventional resources programme, which aims to develop shale gas in three areas. Jafurah lies southeast of Ghawar, the world’s largest conventional oil field.

    The programme is part of Riyadh’s plans under Vision 20230 to ensure the kingdom remains self-sufficient in gas supply amid rising demand from the residential and industrial power sectors.

    Jafurah phase one

    In February 2025, MEED exclusively reported that talks were under way to expand the capacity of the $500m Jafurah cogeneration independent steam and power plant (ISPP).

    Construction works were completed on the facility last November.

    At the time of its procurement, the plant’s first phase was to have a power capacity of 270-320MW, and a low-pressure (LP) steam demand of 77-166 thousand pounds an hour (klb/hr) and high-pressure (HP) steam demand of 29-126 klb/hour by 2023.

    The LP and HP steam demand will increase to 283-373 klb/hr and 66-321 klb/hr by 2027, respectively.

    The oil giant issued the letter of award to Kepco for the contract to develop the Jafurah ISPP scheme in July 2022.

    Kepco subsequently awarded South Korea’s Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction the project’s EPC contract.

    US/India-based Synergy Consulting provided financial advisory services to Kepco on its bid.

    Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) served as the client’s financial adviser for the project. Germany’s Fichtner Consulting Engineers is technical consultant, while the UK’s Wood Group is project management consultant.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17072199/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Al-Mabanee submits lowest bids for Kuwait infrastructure

    2 June 2026

    Kuwait’s Public Authority for Housing Welfare (PAHW) has opened commercial bids for two major infrastructure and public buildings packages at South Al-Mutlaa Residential City.

    Local firm Al-Mabanee United Company has emerged as the lowest bidder for both contracts, submitting combined offers worth KD44m. Both packages entail the construction, completion and maintenance of services, infrastructure works and public buildings for different district centres within the city.

    The first contract covers the infrastructure and public buildings for the N3 District Centre. PAHW received proposals from eight bidders, with Al-Mabanee United Company submitting the lowest price at KD20.9m. The second-lowest offer was submitted by The Contractor General Trading & Contracting Company at KD22.4m, followed by Golden Engineering Group for General Trading & Contracting at KD22.7m, though Golden Engineering Group was flagged for not providing a bid bond.

    Al-Khonaini General Trading & Contracting Company, operating as Inshat Al-Khonaini, ranked fourth with a bid of KD22.7m, followed closely by Kuwait Industrial Centre Company at KD22.8m. Combined Group Contracting Company submitted a bid of KD23.8m, Al-Dar Engineering & Construction Company bid KD25.7m, and China’s Sichuan Road & Bridge Group Corporation submitted the highest active proposal at KD29m. 

    The second contract is for identical infrastructure and public building works at the N1 District Centre. Al-Mabanee United Company submitted the lowest bid of KD22.8m. Its closest competitor was The Contractor General Trading & Contracting Company, which submitted an offer of KD23.9m.

    Al-Khonaini General Trading & Contracting Company came in third with a bid of KD24.2m, followed by Kuwait Industrial Centre Company at KD24.4m and Golden Engineering Group for General Trading & Contracting at KD24.4m. Combined Group Contracting Company placed a bid of KD26m, Al-Dar Engineering & Construction Company bid KD26.5m, and United Construction Company, known as Al-Inshat Al-Muttahida, submitted an offer of KD 30.9m. Al-Ghanim International General Trading & Contracting filed the highest bid at KD344m and was also noted for lacking a bid bond.

    South Mutlaa Residential City is a large-scale planned development designed to accommodate around 400,000 residents in a modern, fully serviced urban environment. Once completed, it will offer contemporary housing alongside extensive logistical services and a wide range of public and commercial areas, including hospitals, schools and other social services.

    The project also includes major infrastructure works such as approximately 150 kilometres of roads and related structures, lighting and other public works, as well as integrated systems for water distribution, rainwater collection and sewage. In addition, it will provide the civil infrastructure needed for electricity distribution, telecommunications networks and traffic control to support a well-connected, functional city.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17071938/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Local developer secures finance for three Riyadh projects

    2 June 2026

    Qimam Noshoz for Real Estate Development Company, a subsidiary of Saudi Arabia’s Banan Real Estate Company, has signed a sharia-compliant credit facility agreement worth SR84m ($22.4m) with Riyad Bank to fund three commercial, hospitality and sports developments in the kingdom.

    The financing agreement is split into two distinct tranches to align with the projects’ development timelines. The first tranche consists of SR49m with a maturity duration of seven years, while the remaining SR35m has been secured for an eight-year term.

    Qimam Noshoz will utilise the capital to fund construction works for the Al-Rahmaniyah Gem and Al-Wadi District Gem projects. Both of these projects are already leased to the fitness operator Armah Sports Company. The other project is an independent hotel located within the Al-Wadi District.

    The Al-Wadi development is designed as an integrated commercial complex spanning approximately 7,818.5 square metres of land, with a built-up area of about 975 square metres. It includes a men’s gym, a women’s gym and a hotel building.

    The Al-Rahmaniyah project is an integrated commercial development combining fitness facilities with retail. The asset features men’s and women’s gyms operating alongside an independent commercial zone.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17071628/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • SLB wins $385m contract for Kuwait oil research centre

    2 June 2026

    Schlumberger Oilfield Eastern, a unit of the US-headquartered oilfield services company SLB, has been awarded a KD118m ($385m) contract to develop an oil and gas research centre in Kuwait.

    The contract was awarded by the state-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC), according to a report by Kuwait’s Al-Rai newspaper.

    The Ahmadi Innovation Valley (AIV) project is planned as an advanced research and innovation hub equipped with specialised facilities and technical teams focused on applied research for Kuwait’s oil and gas sector.

    The contract was awarded after the Higher Purchase Committee (HPC) of Kuwait’s national oil and gas company Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) determined the bid to be compliant with the project’s technical and commercial requirements.

    In February 2025, KOC signed memorandums of understanding (MoUs) with five international oilfield service companies to support the development of the AIV initiative.

    These companies were:

    • SLB (US)
    • Baker Hughes (US)
    • Weatherford (US)
    • Halliburton (US)
    • National Energy Services Reunited (US)

    Under the preliminary agreements, each of the five companies agreed to establish a world-class research and development centre at the project site, focused on helping KOC meet challenges in the upstream sector.

    KOC’s CEO Ahmad Jaber Al-Eidan had said in February 2025 that the project will enable Kuwait to keep pace with global transformations while investing in advanced technologies to ensure the sector’s sustainability and achieve operational excellence.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17063475/main.gif
    Wil Crisp