Water sector braces for likely slowdown

27 December 2024

 

Geopolitical tensions, climate change and higher-than-average population growth have exacerbated the water demand and supply gap across the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region, home to some of the world’s most water-stressed countries.

For example, Jordan, where available water per capita is equivalent to only 12% of the absolute water scarcity level, hosts over 700,000 refugees fleeing wars and conflicts in neighbouring countries.

Most regional governments have developed and started to implement water strategies aimed at narrowing this gap. Subsidies are being phased out, environmental campaigns are being developed and digital solutions are being deployed in order to manage demand and improve efficiency.

Expanding desalination and treatment capacity, increasing treated sewage effluent (TSE) reuse, boosting reservoir capacity and building more efficient transmission and distribution networks are key levers used to improve supply.

Strong spending 

These efforts have prompted significant capital spending on more energy-efficient water production, distribution and storage facilities, typically in partnership with private investors, particularly among the more affluent states.

According to data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects, the Mena region awarded $17bn of project contracts across the water desalination, treatment, transmission and distribution, storage and district cooling subsectors in the first nine months of 2024.

This figure represents about 72% of the contracts awarded in 2023 and is slightly above the average value of annual contract awards in the preceding five years.

With only a few more packages expected to be awarded before the end of the year, 2024 looks set to be one of the best years so far in terms of water project activity, even if it fails to match the record value of contracts awarded in 2023, which reached almost $24bn.

In 2024, Saudi gigaproject developer Neom set the pace in January by awarding a $4.7bn contract to build dams at the Trojena Mountain Resort in Tabuk to Italian contractor WeBuild. 

The contract covers the construction of three dams that will form a freshwater lake for the Trojena ski resort. The main dam will have a height of 145 metres and will be 475 metres long at its crest. It will be built using 2.7 million cubic metres of roller compact concrete.

While this project does not necessarily belong to the band of solutions that aim to narrow the water supply and demand gap, the overall development is part of Saudi Arabia’s drive to boost tourism and diversify its economy away from oil.

Meanwhile, 2024 also saw the award by UAE northern emirate utility Sharjah Electricity, Water & Gas Authority of the contract to develop its first independent water project (IWP), the 400,000 cubic-metres-a-day facility in Hamriyah, to Saudi utility developer Acwa Power, the contract’s sole bidder.

In May, Saudi Arabia’s National Water Company announced that it had completed the award of 10 contracts under the first phase of its privatisation programme. Each rehabilitate, operate and transfer contract involves the retrofitting or expansion of existing sewage treatment plants and associated network, and their long-term operation and management. The facilities are expected to deliver water at the TSE level for irrigation reuse.

On the greenfield sewage treatment front, Saudi Water Partnership Company (SWPC) awarded a $400m contract to develop the Al-Haer independent sewage treatment plant (ISTP) project to a team comprising the local Miahona Company and Belgium’s Besix. The facility is the largest and first to be tendered under the third round of the water offtaker’s ISTP procurement programme.

In September, Chennai-headquartered VA Tech Wabag confirmed it had won a $317m contract to build the Ras Al-Khair seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) facility in Saudi Arabia using an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) model. The project client is Saudi Water Authority (SWA), formerly Saline Water Conversion Corporation.

In Oman, Nama Water Services awarded two water distribution network packages, worth a combined $600m, catering to Al-Dhahirah Governorate.

Jordan also appointed a team comprising Paris-based Meridiam, Suez and Vinci Construction Grands Projets, along with Egypt’s Orascom Construction, for the contract to develop the Aqaba-Amman water conveyance and desalination scheme. It is the country’s largest infrastructure project to date and the first phase is valued at an estimated $2bn-$3bn.

The project is crucial to addressing Jordan’s severe water shortage problem, piping desalinated water over 445 kilometres from the southern Red Sea coast to the country’s northern regions. The consortium is talking to lenders and aims to reach financial close for the project in 2025.

Slower momentum

Despite 2024 being a good year for contract awards, it fell short of the expectation built over the past few years, when the region’s largest economies began to execute their long-term water strategies.

For example, in Saudi Arabia, the years-long restructuring of the domestic water sector took a significant turn in 2024, with Water Transmission Company (WTCO), the kingdom’s licensed desalinated water transmission operator, gaining a broader portfolio of projects. As a result, the mandate to procure upcoming water transmission pipelines has been transferred to WTCO from SWPC.

The slower pace of IWP contract awards in Saudi Arabia was somewhat offset by a slew of tenders from SWA. The authority received bids for the EPC contracts to build four SWRO facilities in 2024, although as of November it had only managed to award one.

Earlier in 2024, Saudi gigaproject developer Neom also shelved a project to develop a zero-liquid discharge (ZLD) SWRO plant.

“The year may not have been as strong as 2023, but it is still a good year,” says Robert Bryniak, CEO of Dubai-based Golden Sands Management (Marketing) Consulting. “Some projects have been delayed or cancelled – for instance a few in Saudi Arabia – but all in all [2024 has been] a good year for the water business.”

Bryniak adds that Neom’s ZLD scheme is one of the year’s shelved projects that he would like to see revived in the future.

Beyond the GCC states, Morocco and Egypt are endeavouring to move their planned SWRO projects into the tendering phase.

In Morocco, Office National de L’Electricite et de L’Eue Potable (Onee) extended the review of its second IWP in Nador while waiting for its first IWP in Casablanca to reach financial close.

The first batch of renewable energy- powered desalination plants in Egypt has yet to reach the proposals stage despite the Sovereign Fund of Egypt having completed the bid prequalification process in 2023.

Potential contract awards

According to data from MEED Projects, an estimated $34bn-worth of water projects are in the tendering stage across the Mena region. A further $40bn-worth is in the prequalification stage and $57bn is in the design and study phases.

The $22bn Dubai Strategic Sewerage Tunnels (DSST) scheme stands out among the upcoming projects due to its scale, as well as for the chosen procurement approach.

The project aims to convert Dubai’s existing sewerage network from a pumped system to a gravity system by decommissioning the existing pump stations and providing a sustainable and reliable service that is fit for the future.

In April, Dubai Municipality launched the procurement process for the DSST project, which is to be developed as a public-private partnership (PPP).

While a dose of pessimism persists over the chosen PPP model – in part due to the project’s scale and strong civil works orientation, and Dubai’s dismal track record in procuring PPP schemes outside the utility sector – the project has managed to attract strong interest from EPC contractors, as well as from potential investors and sponsors.

Some of those that have sought to prequalify as investors, such as Begium’s Besix, Beijing-headquartered China Railway Construction Corporation and South Korea’s Samsung C&T, have previously been prequalified as EPC contractors for the DSST project, which suggests that the preferred approach of prequalifying EPCs ahead of investors could offer advantages.

In Saudi Arabia, WTCO, SWA, SWPC and Neom’s utility subsidiary Enowa are each expected to let several contracts in 2025, while Bahrain and Abu Dhabi could award one IWP contract each.  

However, a robust overall pipeline does not necessarily guarantee that 2025 will resemble the upward trajectory that the sector has seen in the past two years.

“This year could be a turning point for the water industry throughout Mena,” says Bryniak, alluding to the possibility that, come January, the foreign and climate policies of the new occupant of the White House could affect the trend of water production capacity buildout in the Mena region.

Bryniak says that if US President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his promises, then we may be in store for, among other events, lower energy prices as the US drills more oil; a dampening of world trade as the US places tariffs on imports, especially on Chinese goods and services; less focus on the environment; and, generally, a more isolationist America.

“In my view, much depends on how much oil prices fall,” he continues. 

“A significant drop in oil prices could result in cut-backs in a lot of development projects, and this, in turn, will adversely impact water demand and the overall build programme.”  

However, the impact will not be uniform across asset types and procurement models, Bryniak notes. He expects water PPP projects to continue to grow, especially if capital availability is reduced by lower oil prices, as this is one way to preserve capital for use in other areas. 

“I do not see any reason for tariffs to fall further in 2025. Tariffs, in my view, will remain roughly where they are now or increase slightly,” adds Bryniak.  

However, the executive says that EPC contracts will likely have “a higher opportunity cost”, so there might be a reduced focus on this type of procurement model.  

He concludes: “To the extent that development projects get trimmed down due to less capital being available as a result of significantly lower oil prices, then water procurers and other developers will likely scale back their projects.”

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13146291/main.gif
Jennifer Aguinaldo
Related Articles
  • Dubai moves to next phase of Al-Quoz sewerage project

    13 April 2026

     

    Dubai Municipality’s AED500m ($136m) sewerage and stormwater network development project in Al-Quoz Creative Zone is on track for full completion by January 2027, a source has told MEED.

    The timeline follows Dubai Municipality’s announcement that it has completed the first phase at a cost of AED250m ($68m).

    Phase one included the construction of sewerage and stormwater drainage networks covering 155 hectares and 123 plots. Dubai Municipality said it laid 15 kilometres of sewerage pipelines with diameters ranging from 160mm to 1,600mm. It also developed 14 kilometres of stormwater drainage lines with pipe diameters of between 200mm and 3,000mm.

    The overall project covers Al-Quoz Industrial Areas 1, 2, 3 and 4, as well as the area between Sheikh Zayed Road and Al-Khail Road. It spans 1,600 hectares and covers more than 1,507 plots.

    It is understood that the second phase covers the remaining sections of the project beyond the 155-hectare area completed under phase one.

    Local firm DeTech Contracting is the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor on both phases of the scheme.

    The scheme forms part of Dubai’s wider sewerage system development programme and aligns with the AED30bn ($8.1bn) Tasreef programme, which aims to expand stormwater drainage capacity across the emirate.

    The municipality recently opened a tender for a stormwater drainage project covering the Al-Marmoum, Al-Qudra and Al-Yalayis 2 & 3 areas.

    The project is intended to improve stormwater drainage along major roads and surrounding areas within the project zone.

    The works will include the construction of a major gravity drainage system with pipelines of up to 1,600 millimetres in diameter.

    In February, the municipality confirmed it had awarded contracts for five new projects under phase two of the programme to expand and strengthen Dubai’s stormwater drainage network.

    These include two contracts awarded to DeTech Contracting and one to China State Construction Engineering Corporation for stormwater drainage infrastructure.

    In addition, two consultancy contracts were awarded for the study and design of drainage systems in selected areas across the emirate.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16369236/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Qiddiya signs sports medical centre project deal

    13 April 2026

    Saudi gigaproject developer Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) and King Faisal Specialist Hospital & Research Centre (KFSHRC) have signed an agreement to establish a sports medical centre within the Qiddiya city project in Riyadh.

    The agreement was signed at KFSHRC’s headquarters in Riyadh by Majid Alfayyadh, CEO of KFSHRC, and Abdullah Al-Dawood, managing director of QIC.

    The facility will provide specialised sports medicine services in line with international standards, the partners said.

    The goal of the agreement is “to create a dedicated centre that supports professional athletes, rising talents and community members, helping to advance sports healthcare in Saudi Arabia”, they said in a statement.

    Under the agreement, KFSHRC will provide technical and operational support, supervise the centre’s operations, and ensure high-quality, integrated services that combine clinical care with research and innovation.

    The Qiddiya Sports Medical Centre will offer services including injury prevention, diagnosis, treatment, rehabilitation and performance improvement.

    The Qiddiya project is a key part of Riyadh’s strategy to boost leisure tourism in the kingdom. According to UK analytics firm GlobalData, leisure tourism in Saudi Arabia has experienced significant growth in recent years.

    The kingdom’s tourism sector posted record-breaking numbers last year, with over 130 million domestic and international visitors entering the kingdom, representing a 6% increase over 2024.


    MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
    > BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
    > UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
    > POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia

    > WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
    > TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure push

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16369037/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi Arabia restores capacity of affected oil and gas assets

    13 April 2026

    Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy has announced the restoration of full capacity at critical oil and gas infrastructure damaged in attacks by Iran on 9 April.

    The attacks led to the loss of approximately 700,000 barrels a day (b/d) of crude pumping capacity on the East-West oil pipeline, which has been restored to its optimum capacity of 7 million b/d, the ministry said on 12 April.

    The Manifa oil field development in the kingdom’s Eastern Province, which lost 300,000 b/d of production due to the attacks, has also had its output capacity reinstated “within a short period of time”, the ministry said.

    The ministry added that work is still ongoing to restore full production capacity at the Khurais oil field, which also lost 300,000 b/d of capacity in the attacks.

    “This quick recovery reflects the high operational resilience and crisis management efficiency of Saudi Aramco and the kingdom’s energy ecosystem as a whole, thereby enhancing the reliability and continuity of supplies to local and global markets, and supporting the global economy,” the Ministry of Energy said.

    Along with the East-West pipeline and the Manifa and Khurais oil field developments, the attacks on 9 April also targeted oil refineries, petrochemical complexes and electricity units in Riyadh, the Eastern Province and Yanbu on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast.

    These assets include the Saudi Aramco Total Refining & Petrochemical Company (Satorp) facility in Jubail, Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery, the Saudi Aramco Mobil Refinery Company (Samref) complex in Yanbu, and the Riyadh refinery, directly affecting exports of refined products to global markets.

    Processing facilities in Juaymah in the Eastern Province were also affected by fires, impacting exports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas liquids.

    The ministry’s 12 April statement did not provide updates on the status of those facilities.

    Prior to the 9 April attacks, Saudi authorities reported explosions in Jubail industrial city on 7 April. Saudi air defence systems intercepted seven ballistic missiles targeting the Eastern Province that day, with debris landing near energy facilities, primarily in Jubail.

    Jubail is one of the world’s largest petrochemical production hubs, with annual output of about 60 million tonnes, accounting for an estimated 6%-8% of global supply. A large part of majority state-owned Saudi Basic Industries Corporation’s (Sabic) operations is based in Jubail.

    Jubail also hosts major downstream oil, gas and petrochemical assets operated by Aramco, US-based Dow and France’s TotalEnergies, underscoring the industrial zone’s international significance.


    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16368648/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Saudi Arabia seeks firms for Riyadh mixed-use project

    13 April 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s State Properties General Authority (SPGA), in collaboration with the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP), has invited expressions of interest from firms to transform the Saudi Standards, Metrology and Quality Organisation (SASO) headquarters site in Riyadh’s Al-Muhammadiyah area into a mixed-use district.

    The notice was issued on 12 April, with a bid submission deadline of 26 April.

    The public-private partnership (PPP) scheme, named the ‘Quality Valley Riyadh’ project, will be developed on a design, build, finance, operate, maintain and transfer basis.

    The project comprises commercial offices, a four-star hotel and retail facilities.

    The contract term is 32 years, in addition to a three-year construction period.

    The project site spans about 191,000 square metres.

    UK-based PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), US-based engineering firm Jacobs and Saudi Arabia’s Al-Nowaisser & Al-Suwaylimi are the project advisers.

    In October last year, NCP highlighted the scale and diversity of opportunities in the kingdom’s PPP pipeline.

    “At the moment, we have around 200 projects in the pipeline with a total value of roughly $190bn,” Salman Badr, executive vice president – infrastructure advisory, NCP, said during a MEED webinar.

    The projects are spread across 17 sectors. “We have a very sizeable programme, and it reflects the breadth of the kingdom’s transformation agenda,” he said.

    NCP was established in 2017. It serves as the central authority and catalyst for designing and implementing privatisation and PPP projects across the kingdom.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16368638/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • War undermines business case for Middle East LNG

    13 April 2026

     

    The US and Israel’s conflict with Iran is undermining the business case for Middle East liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects by driving up prices, destroying demand for the super-chilled fuel, damaging infrastructure and eroding confidence in the reliability of the region’s suppliers.

    By blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict has removed around 20% of global LNG supply from the market and, for some importers, has effectively doubled prices.

    Dubbed by some analysts “the champagne of fuels”, LNG was already seen as being on the verge of becoming unaffordable for many energy-importing nations prior to the latest conflict.

    The current wave of high prices has exacerbated concerns about LNG price volatility and has already changed the minds of some countries and businesses that were planning to make large investments to facilitate LNG imports.

    If these projects do not go ahead as planned, it could limit future global LNG demand, dimming the long-term outlook for businesses that depend on LNG export revenues.

    As well as facing longer-term demand likely to fall short of previous expectations, LNG operators in the UAE and Qatar are also being hit in the short term as infrastructure has been damaged by Iranian strikes and sales are being blocked by disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    The lost revenues and ongoing security issues are casting a shadow over major LNG export expansion plans in the GCC, collectively worth more than $35bn, which could now face significant delays.

    Dubbed by some analysts “the champagne of fuels”, LNG was already seen as being on the verge of becoming unaffordable for many energy-importing nations prior to the latest conflict

    Affordability issues

    LNG production stopped in Qatar on 2 March 2026 and QatarEnergy declared force majeure on 4 March, removing around 80 million tonnes a year (t/y) of LNG supply from global markets.

    The North Field East expansion project, currently under construction and expected to add 32 million t/y, was anticipated to start up in November 2026, but could now face considerable delays.

    The project is estimated to be worth $28.8bn, making it the biggest LNG project ever sanctioned

    In a statement released last month, Daniel Toleman, a research director at Wood Mackenzie, said continued disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz lasting five to six months would push annual global LNG supply into a year-on-year decline.

    “Even if supply were maintained at 2025 levels, the market would still face demand destruction in Asia, lower storage injections in Europe, and sustained upward pressure on gas and LNG prices,” he added.

    “Each additional month of disruption removes around 1.5% from annual global LNG availability.”

    Beyond the closure of the strait, Qatar’s LNG business has also been dealt a significant setback by Iranian attacks on infrastructure.

    Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, QatarEnergy’s CEO and minister of state for energy affairs, said the Iranian strikes had knocked out about 17% of its LNG export capacity, causing an estimated $20bn in lost annual revenue.

    Repairs to damaged assets will sideline 12.8 million t/y of LNG for three to five years, threatening supplies to European and Asian nations, including China and India, according to Al-Kaabi.

    UAE setbacks

    The UAE has also seen significant disruption to its LNG operations, with shipments from its only LNG export terminal, located on Das Island, severely disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

    Although it has not formally declared force majeure, virtually all of its LNG output has been removed from global markets because it has no pipeline or alternative routes for LNG exports.

    The ongoing energy crisis has increased uncertainty about the UAE’s planned $5.5bn LNG export terminal, being developed at the Ruwais industrial complex.

    In recent weeks, the Ruwais industrial complex was targeted by Iran, causing a fire at the site. The location could also face similar shipping problems to the Das Island facility in the future, as it too requires LNG exports to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Oman exports

    With its LNG export terminals located on the country’s northeast coast, Oman’s exports do not require the Strait of Hormuz to be open, and it has escaped most of the negative impacts that have hit the UAE and Qatar.

    However, Oman’s state-owned integrated energy company, OQ, has still been affected by disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz due to its activities as an LNG trader.

    Last month, OQ Trading, the company’s international trading and marketing arm, declared force majeure on LNG shipments to Bangladesh’s state-owned Petrobangla.

    Replacing LNG

    Analysts say the demand destruction now taking place in LNG-importing nations is likely to have a long-term impact on future LNG demand.

    Countries where planned LNG import-related projects have been cancelled or are being reconsidered include Vietnam, China and New Zealand.

    Christopher Doleman, a gas specialist at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (Ieefa), believes that long-term demand for LNG will be eroded by the current crisis.

    “Prior to the war, a lot of countries were already somewhat hesitant to develop new LNG import infrastructure,” he said.

    “There were existing concerns about the high price of LNG and potential volatility, and these concerns have increased significantly since the war began, leading several developers to consider other options, which in some cases include renewables projects.

    “Everybody’s starting to realise that there is something inherently insecure about the LNG supply chain and they don’t want to have to deal with an affordability crisis every four years.”

    On 30 March, China’s state-owned energy company Sinopec said it was terminating a planned LNG import terminal project worth 5.6bn yuan ($820m) and reallocating the money to developing domestic gas resources.

    The company said developing domestic resources was more cost-effective than developing LNG import infrastructure.

    In Vietnam, conglomerate Vingroup has asked the government to allow it to replace a planned $6bn LNG power project – previously set to be the country’s largest – with a renewable energy project, citing surging fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict.

    US-based GE Vernova, which had been selected to supply gas turbines and generators for the 4.8GW project, was informed of Vingroup’s revised plans in a document sent on 25 March.

    Instead of the LNG-powered plant, Vingroup asked Vietnam’s industry ministry to consider an investment plan for a hybrid renewable energy project combined with a battery energy storage system (bess).

    A bess stores electricity from renewable sources to maximise its use by discharging power during peak demand.

    The document did not specify the type of renewable energy to be used, but estimated the cost of the bess project at around $25bn, saying it would be a viable alternative to the LNG-powered plant if equipped with appropriate transmission infrastructure.

    If Vietnam follows through on its pivot away from LNG towards renewables, it could directly affect future export deals for Qatar, which is currently one of the country’s LNG suppliers.

    Everybody’s starting to realise that there is something inherently insecure about the LNG supply chain and they don’t want to have to deal with an affordability crisis every four years
    Christopher Doleman, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis

    Second thoughts

    In New Zealand, plans announced last year for a new LNG terminal on the country’s North Island are becoming increasingly uncertain.

    In February, the government shortlisted contractors to build the facility in Taranaki. But on 30 March, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said the government would only approve the project if the business case made sense.

    “If it doesn’t stack up, we won’t be doing it. Until we see the commercials on it, we’ll make the decision then,” he said.

    Mike Roan, chief executive of New Zealand’s Meridian Energy, said US President Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran on 28 February had made the project much less likely to go ahead.

    “It feels like the Americans might have put a bazooka, literally, through that proposal,” he said.

    It has been reported that ministers are considering replacing the project with a major hydroelectric power station, which was referred to the country’s fast-track consent panel in the last week of March.

    The future of a planned $3bn project to develop an LNG import terminal and gas power plant in South Africa is also now in doubt after executives delayed the final investment decision (FID).

    Speaking at a conference on 4 March, Oliver Naidu from Netherlands-based Royal Vopak said the company now plans to decide on the $3bn terminal in the first quarter of 2028.

    The power station and regasification complex, slated for development in the Durban area, would have had the capacity to produce 1.0-1.8GW of electricity.

    Nuclear and coal

    In South Korea, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) restarted unit 2 at its Kori nuclear power plant this month.

    The facility had been offline for three years since its original 40-year operating permit expired in April 2023.

    Commenting on the restart, KHNP president Kim Hoe-Cheon said: “In a situation where energy supply instability persists, the continued operation of nuclear power plants based on safety is an important means of securing national energy security.”

    Across Asia, there has also been a surge in the use of both solar and coal amid high LNG prices.

    In Pakistan, the country’s Power Minister, Awais Leghari, said that the country would pivot away from LNG to focus on domestically produced coal.

    “With a reduction in LNG generation, plants running on locally mined coal will be able to produce more during off-peak hours,” Leghari told Reuters.

    Similar coal ramp-ups are also taking place in Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand.

    Coleman believes increased use of both coal and renewables could mean LNG’s role in the global energy mix falls short of previous expectations over the coming years.

    “It’s possible that we will see a dual surge – where both renewables and coal use are ramped up,” he said.

    “This is an interesting prospect because it will effectively remove gas as a so-called ‘bridge-fuel’ and we may see the transition progressing more directly to the use of renewables and battery storage, with less of a role for gas than was previously expected.

    “Really, it’s turned out that LNG was just a bridge to volatility and insecurity compared to something like solar, which is very reliable and predictable.”

    Eroded outlook

    The demand destruction in LNG-importing countries driven by the current energy crisis is likely to mean that the long-term market for LNG exports could be significantly smaller than previously thought, negatively impacting LNG producers worldwide.

    Qatar and the UAE are likely to be hit harder than producers in other regions for several reasons.

    Attacks on infrastructure and disruptions to shipping are preventing them from capitalising on the current period of high prices, while producers in other regions are recording windfall profits.

    In addition, dealing with the logistical and financial consequences of the conflict is likely to divert resources away from progressing new projects, pursuing efficiencies and securing future customers.

    Another factor likely to weigh on LNG operators in Qatar and the UAE is the persistence of customer concerns about the reliability of shipping LNG via the Strait of Hormuz.

    This could compel Adnoc Gas and QatarEnergy to sell at a relative discount compared with sellers in other regions, or to increase contractual flexibility.

    It could even push these producers to rethink future projects to diversify export routes. For Qatar, this could take the form of a gas pipeline via neighbouring countries. For the UAE, one option could be developing an LNG terminal on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing reliance on the bottleneck controlled by Iran.

    While the current conflict is a major setback for LNG operators in the UAE and Qatar, once the Strait of Hormuz reopens and security risks diminish, it is likely that exports will ramp up relatively quickly and former clients will return.

    However, questions remain about when this will happen. If safe passage for LNG tankers can be secured within days or weeks, the long-term impact is likely to be limited.

    If disruption continues for longer, it could transform the outlook for the Middle East’s LNG sector for years to come.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16331010/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp