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Power sector awards momentum accelerates

26 December 2024

 

The Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region’s power sector awarded over $60bn of contracts between January and early November 2024, up 47.5% compared to the value of awarded contracts in the previous full year.

This figure is more than double the average value of annual contract awards recorded between 2014 and 2023, based on data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects.

It also exceeds by 21% the total combined value of contracts awarded between 2018 and 2020, when some regional governments and utilities began pivoting to renewable energy and freezing the expansion of thermal plant capacities, in line with goals aimed at decarbonising their electricity systems.

In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic slowed down project activity and temporarily delayed the awarding of some contracts.

The market staged a short-lived comeback in 2021, when Saudi Arabia awarded a string of contracts for solar photovoltaic (PV) independent power projects (IPPs), including a contract to develop the 600MW Shoaiba solar PV scheme, which holds the world record for the lowest unsubsidised solar PV production at $cents1.04 a kilowatt-hour.

A slight contraction occurred the following year due to a spike in raw materials and engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) costs.

Last year saw a stunning recovery, however, helped by the award of new renewable energy projects in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Oman, as well as by a resumption of contract awards for new gas-fired power plants, particularly in Saudi Arabia, Libya and Iraq.

Yet 2024 is set to outshine 2023 in terms of awarded contracts for thermal, renewable energy and nuclear power generation plants, as well as for power transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure such as substations and overhead transmission lines.

Major 2024 awards

In 2023, power generation projects accounted for an estimated 79% of total contract awards, with T&D projects accounting for the rest.

A different picture is emerging in 2024, with data in the first nine months of the year suggesting that generation contract awards are retreating to about 64% of the total. This is due to increased T&D capital spending that has so far driven a 150% increase in award value compared to full-year 2023.

This is a clear indicator of T&D capacity buildout catching up with the generation capacity expansion, especially as larger economies such as Saudi Arabia strive to set up stronger and more efficient electricity links domestically, and as the energy-rich GCC states seek to establish stronger electricity links with one another and with their neighbours, including Egypt, Iraq and Jordan.

Saudi Arabia has dominated the overall Mena power contracts landscape. Its share of 29% in 2022 soared to 61% in 2023 and 67% in the first 10-11 months of 2024.

In May, principal buyer Saudi Power Procurement Company (SPPC) signed two power-purchase agreements with Japan’s Marubeni Corporation for contracts to develop two wind IPPs under the fourth round of the National Renewable Energy Programme (NREP). The Al-Ghat and Waad Al-Shamal wind IPPs have a total combined capacity of 1,100MW. 

The contract for a third wind IPP, tendered as part of round four of the NREP, is also expected to be awarded soon.

In June, Saudi sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund (PIF) let the fourth batch of solar PV schemes, which it is implementing bilaterally through the Price Discovery Scheme.

A team comprising Acwa Power, PIF-backed Water & Electricity Holding Company (Badeel) and Saudi Aramco Power Company (Sapco), a subsidiary of the state majority-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco, will develop the three solar projects, which will have a total combined capacity of 5,500MW and will require an investment of about $3.3bn.

The Haden solar PV and Muwayh solar power plants, which will each have a capacity of 2,000MW, will be located in Saudi Arabia’s Mecca region. The third project, the 1,500MW Al-Khushaybi solar PV plant, will be located in the Qassim region. The three new solar PV facilities are expected to become operational in the first half of 2027.

In early November, SPPC also announced the winning bidders for the contracts to develop four combined-cycle gas turbine plants comprising the second batch of thermal capacity that it has tendered since 2023. The four plants, located in Riyadh and the Eastern Province, will each have a capacity of 1,800MW and will require an investment of about $2bn each.  

A developer consortium comprising the UAE-based Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa), Japan’s Jera Company and the local Albawani Company successfully bid for the contracts to develop and operate the Rumah 2 and Nairiyah 2 IPPs. Meanwhile, Saudi Electricity Company (SEC), Riyadh-based utility developer Acwa Power and South Korea’s Korea Electric Power Corporation (Kepco) won the contracts to develop and operate the similarly configured Rumah 1 and Nairiyah 1 IPPs.

State utility SEC is also understood to have issued the limited notices to proceed for six greenfield thermal power plants with a total combined capacity of over 16,000MW.

Power generation projects for which final contracts are expected to be awarded before the end of 2024 include:

  • Hajr: 3,600MW
  • Marjan: 1,800MW
  • Riyadh PP12: 1,800MW
  • Qurayyah: 3,600MW
  • Ghazlan 1: 2,400MW
  • Ghazlan 2: 2,900MW

The $5.3bn high-voltage direct current network project connecting the central, western and southern regions of Saudi Arabia was the single largest power contract awarded in Saudi Arabia in 2024.

The UAE, meanwhile, has awarded three key power contracts this year, including for the Al-Ajban solar IPP, which was won by a team of France’s EDF and South Korea’s Korea Western Power Company (Kowepo), and for the Dhafra waste-to-energy project, which a team of Japan’s Marubeni Corporation, Japan Overseas Infrastructure Investment Corporation and Zurich-headquartered Hitachi Zosen Inova is developing.

Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) is also understood to have awarded the contract to complete the Jebel Ali K-Station to Egypt-based Power Generation Engineering & Services Company.

2025 outlook

The Mena power projects pipeline remains robust, with over $45bn-worth of contracts under bid evaluation and another $50bn in the prequalification stage as of late 2024, according to MEED Projects.

Saudi Arabia is likely to remain dominant, particularly if SPPC and the PIF activate a plan by the Energy Ministry to procure 20,000MW of renewable energy capacity annually until it reaches its target for renewables to account for half of its energy production mix by 2030.

Morocco has the second-largest power projects pipeline thanks to several planned schemes to export clean energy and green hydrogen to Europe. Notably, the tender is under way for the country’s first two solar PV plus battery energy storage system (bess) projects, Noor Midelt 2 and 3.

Abu Dhabi also maintains a substantial renewables and gas-fired generation project pipeline. It has several upcoming IPPs with a total combined capacity of over 7,000MW, of which more than 6,000MW is in the tendering stage.

While the procurement process for Saudi Arabia’s first nuclear power plant in Duwaiheen has been delayed, the UAE has plans to procure the next phase of its nuclear power plant project in Barakah.

Green industrial development in steel and aluminium, as is being undertaken in the UAE, is a driver for ongoing clean energy capacity buildout, notes Karen Young, senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Centre on Global Energy Policy.

Egypt, Iran, Kuwait and Iraq have the next largest power projects pipelines. The key drivers in each state vary, with populous countries Egypt and Iran seeking to develop integrated green hydrogen hubs and nuclear power capacity, respectively, while Kuwait remains a promising market with extended plans to procure both conventional and renewable energy capacity to address peak demand.

There are indications that Iraq’s first utility-scale solar PV scheme – a 1GW project being developed by France’s TotalEnergies – will head into the construction stage in the coming months, along with other similar projects for which preliminary agreements were signed by Iraqi authorities in 2021-22.

Oman is actively pursuing renewable energy capacity, with the state offtaker having tendered the contracts for two wind IPPs in September 2024.

In Oman and Qatar, the main downstream companies, Petroleum Development Oman and QatarEnergy, are developing renewable energy capacity as a means of mitigating their greenhouse gas emissions, as well as to support their respective government’s net-zero targets.

In November, Bahrain started the procurement process for its fourth independent water and power project (IWPP) in Sitra, which replaced the previously planned Al-Dur IWPP 3 scheme.

Other trends

SEC affiliate National Grid Saudi Arabia has awarded EPC contracts for several bess packages to local firm Algihaz this year. In August, it tendered a contract for the construction of a further 2,500MW of energy storage capacity. 

In parallel, the procurement process is under way for the first independent bess packages in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi, with other utilities expected to follow suit in procuring bess using an IPP model. Bess will boost grid flexibility and spinning reserves in the face of increased renewable energy capacity and demand.

In addition to bess and several gigawatts of solar and wind capacity, Saudi Arabia gigaproject developer Neom, which plans to be powered 100% by renewable energy by the end of the decade, is also considering a network of large-scale pumped hydropower storage plants.   

However, despite the ongoing capacity buildout across the Mena states, some end-users – particularly in fossil fuel-
scarce jurisdictions such as Morocco – continue to struggle with supply.

“I’ve been part of a research project in Morocco looking at the renewable power landscape and green economy more broadly. In that case, we do see massive buildout, but it is tailored for offtake to state-related industrials,” says Columbia University’s Young.

She adds that a telephone survey of 1,000 small and medium-sized businesses in Morocco about their perception of the accessibility and affordability of renewable energy yielded surprising results.

“They strongly suggested a lack of support, given that smaller enterprises continue to see power outages and this has in many cases caused damage to their equipment and abilities to stay open and service customers.

“The disconnect between power buildout and industrial advances in a green supply chain and how small and medium firms see power accessibility and reliability is very stark. In a Mena-wide sense, we might start to question how the delivery and transmission of power in an equitable way affects economic growth opportunities overall.”

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Jennifer Aguinaldo

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    Project pipeline

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    Solar projects make up the largest share, at about $5.1bn, or 41% of the total. There continues to be relatively strong diversification, with cable and overhead-line projects accounting for about $3bn, followed by wind at $2.2bn, oil and gas-fired power at $1.1bn and substations at about $1bn.

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    Large-scale storage is also expected to continue expanding. The latest SPPC projects build on five bess facilities awarded by Saudi Energy through National Grid Saudi Arabia to Alfanar in 2025. The facilities have a combined capacity of up to 2,500MW, equivalent to about 10,000MWh.

    SPPC has also issued the request for proposals for the second phase of its independent bess programme in Saudi Arabia. The Group 2 programme comprises six independent storage provider projects with a total capacity of 3GW, equivalent to 12,000MWh based on a four-hour storage duration. Developers are due to submit bids in October. 

    The timing means the Group 2 projects could contribute to contracting activity in 2027, alongside this next batch of renewable projects under NREP Round 7.

    Nuclear power could provide another potential source of activity over the next 12 months. The US and Saudi Arabia signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement in July, providing the legal foundation for a long-term, multibillion-dollar nuclear partnership.

    While the agreement is unlikely to translate immediately into major contract values, further progress on Saudi Arabia’s nuclear programme could add another area of activity in the sector as the kingdom moves into 2027.

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    Mark Dowdall