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Mena power rides high into 2024

29 December 2023

 

The Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region’s power generation and transmission sector awarded an estimated $25.3bn-worth of contracts between January and November 2023.

While this pales in comparison to the record high of $37.7bn awarded in 2015, it is up 38 per cent on the previous full year 2022, according to MEED Projects.

Year-on-year, the value of awarded power generation contracts increased by 40 per cent to reach $19bn, outperforming the transmission sub-sector growth by nine percentage points.

Saudi Arabia accounted for 60 per cent of the awarded power contracts in 2023. These include the contracts to develop four independent power projects (IPPs) that use combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT), the first to be procured since the kingdom awarded the contract to develop the 1,500MW Al-Fadhili IPP to France’s Engie in 2016.

The Taiba 1 and 2 and Qassim 1 and 2 IPP projects each have a generation capacity of 1,800MW and require a combined investment of $7.8bn, of which roughly 80 per cent is accounted for by engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) costs.

The kingdom also awarded an EPC contract for the 1,200MW expansion of a power plant complex in Jubail during the year.

On the renewable energy front, the principal buyer, Saudi Power Procurement Company (SPPC), and the Public Investment Fund awarded some 6.7GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) IPP projects.

The uptick in awards marks a major improvement after a year of tepid renewables project activity in 2022, barring the solar and wind farm projects being developed as part of the large-scale green hydrogen and ammonia project in Neom.

The transmission and distribution sub-sector contributed to Saudi Arabia’s sterling market performance this year, delivering contracts worth over $3.5bn.

The kingdom’s electricity grid is expected to continue to be upgraded to accommodate growing renewable energy capacity and the rise in electricity demand as Vision 2030-related projects enter the execution phase.

The plan to accelerate electricity trade with its GCC neighbours and other countries in the region, such as Egypt and Iraq, is also anticipated to encourage future grid investments. 

The award of the $2bn multi-utilities package for the Amaala development project also stood out, not least due to the inclusion of a 700 megawatt-hour battery energy storage system to enable the hotels within the development to be completely off-grid.

Unlike in the previous two years, Kuwait, the UAE and Oman also tendered or awarded substantial power generation contracts in 2023.

Nama Power & Water Procurement Company awarded the contracts to develop the second and third utility-scale solar PV schemes in the sultanate, Manah 1 and 2, each with a capacity of 500MW, in the first half of the year.

In September, Dubai Electricity & Water Authority awarded the contract to develop the sixth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashid solar complex.

Looking forward

The Mena power sector is expected to maintain its momentum into 2024, if the final quarter of 2023 is anything to go by.

Saudi Arabia is likely to continue dominating power project activities, with other states such as the UAE, Oman, Morocco, Egypt, Kuwait and Qatar offering significant opportunities for developers and EPC contractors.

Saudi Arabia’s SPPC has held a market-sounding event for the four solar IPPs under the fifth round of the kingdom’s National Renewable Energy Programme (NREP), while bid evaluation is still under way for the three wind IPPs under the NREP’s round four.

The tender documents are also being prepared for two CCGT projects in Riyadh, PP15 and Al-Khafji, with each expected to have a capacity of 3.6GW.

Qatar and Kuwait are advancing the procurement process for independent water and power producer (IWPP) projects that were held back over the past few years.

Abu Dhabi has initiated the procurement process for its fourth solar PV IPP and first twin battery energy storage facilities. 

It will also almost certainly kick off the procurement process for one or two thermal power plants in the months ahead in anticipation of the need to replace expiring gas-fired capacity.

North Africa

The procurement of renewable energy plants, particularly in the North African states, led by Egypt and Morocco, is also expected to ramp up, in part due to their goals to develop green hydrogen hubs and export clean energy to Europe.

“Morocco is definitely going to be a major market from 2024 and onwards, with several IPPs in the planning and study stage,” says a senior partner with a transaction advisory firm.

Expectations also continue to thrive for many thermal projects planned in Libya and solar PV IPPs in Iraq, despite political uncertainties. 

For Iraq in particular, the external pressure to rely less on Iranian electricity imports will provide impetus to its solar and CCGT capacity programmes.

The future trend for levelised costs of electricity is likely to remain mixed over the coming months

LCOE trend 

The future trend for levelised costs of electricity (LCOEs) – or the pre-agreed, long-term tariffs an offtaker pays utility developers for their plants’ electricity output – is likely to remain mixed over the coming months, according to a region-based expert.

“The LCOEs for CCGTs are likely to remain stable next year, while solar LCOEs could slightly decline, compared with those seen in 2023,” the source tells MEED.

Supply chain constraints for gas turbines remain a concern for future CCGT power plants, given what is understood to be a long lead time for delivery and the production capacity constraints in the EU plants of the leading suppliers such as Germany’s Siemens Energy and the US’ GE.

While this opens opportunities for gas turbine manufacturers based in China, it is foreseeable that there remains a dominant preference for EU-made products across the Mena region, particularly in the GCC states.

The same expert argues, however, that the massive increase in gas turbine demand may be temporary, with demand likely to start petering off sometime after 2024, when clients and utility developers alike will have to consider the impact of these assets, whose concession agreements extend between 25 and 30 years, to their net-zero commitments.

As previously cited, Saudi Arabia will continue to dominate the region’s power sector project activities in the foreseeable future. Its ambition for renewable energy sources to account for half its capacity by 2030 and the Vision 2030-related plans to build off-grid developments such as Neom, the Red Sea and Amaala, as well as its multibillion-dollar industrialisation programme, will drive this.

According to MEED Projects data, Iran, Algeria, Kuwait, the UAE and Qatar are the other key markets for projects in the bidding stage. Morocco, Egypt, Kuwait and the UAE are the most promising markets for projects outside Saudi Arabia in the study, design or prequalification stage.

Overall, the net-zero commitments made by key states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and plans to build green hydrogen valleys from Abu Dhabi to Morocco, in addition to an endemic rise in electricity demand as populations and economies grow, will likely keep the overall power sector buoyant over the coming years, barring any major events, like the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 or the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. 

Sustainability drives water investments

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Jennifer Aguinaldo

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    The current conflict has not changed these risks; rather, it has made them harder to ignore.

    Basic due diligence and document checks are often insufficient to mitigate risks in a market as complex as Iraq

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    Every so often, we encounter seemingly well-established and reputable Iraqi business groups with extensive foreign partnerships that, following in-depth investigation, appear to be ultimately controlled by or linked to politicians, militia leaders, sanctioned individuals or Iran-aligned armed groups. Such connections often indicate a history of corrupt practices, ranging from bribery and the use of high-placed connections to secure government contracts to involvement in sophisticated money-laundering schemes or smuggling and diversion operations benefiting the Iranian state.

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    Dr Anastasia Nosova is associate managing director at K2 Integrity, a prominent global risk advisory, compliance and corporate investigations firm. Renwar Ahmed is an associate at the company’s Investigations & Disputes practice. 

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    Adnoc Offshore operates the Umm Shaif hydrocarbons development, which is located 150 kilometres (km) northwest of the city of Abu Dhabi. The field is located within Abu Dhabi’s offshore Umm Shaif and Nasr hydrocarbons concession, previously operated by former Adnoc Group companies Adma-Opco and Zadco.

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    Adnoc Offshore is understood to have issued the main EPC tender for the Umm Shaif gas cap and surface pressure boosting project in the first quarter of 2025.

    Contractors submitted technical bids for the three EPC packages by the 30 October deadline last year, while commercial bids were submitted by the deadline of 2 February this year.

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    Gas is produced from the Umm Shaif Khuff and Uweinat reservoirs, as well as from the Arab C and Arab D Early Production Scheme 2. The Umm Shaif Khuff reservoir is a formation that consists of dry gas volumetric reservoirs located in the Umm Shaif field.

    Khuff reservoirs have been in production in Abu Dhabi since August 1989. Umm Shaif Khuff gas is currently produced from 28 active wells within the Umm Shaif field. A majority of these wells supply gas to Adnoc Group subsidiaries Adnoc LNG and Adnoc Gas Processing, with the rest supporting oil reservoirs at the Umm Shaif field through gas injection.

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    The gas collected from the USSC is transported to Das Island through two 46-inch pipelines, which also run 34.4km.

    Pressure at the Umm Shaif Khuff gas reservoirs will start to decline by the end of 2028. The flowing wellhead pressures at some of the Khuff gas wellhead towers are likely to reduce, so boosting well deliverability and increasing the flowrates is necessary.

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  • Masdar renews $300m revolving credit facility

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    Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) has renewed its five-year $300m revolving credit facility with a syndicate of 25 international banks.

    The company said the refinancing strengthens its liquidity position and overall balance sheet resilience as it works towards its target of reaching 100GW of renewable energy portfolio capacity by 2030.

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    Masdar’s renewable energy portfolio reached 65GW earlier this year, placing the company about two-thirds of the way towards its 100GW target by 2030. Of that, Masdar said 45GW is operational, under construction or has reached final close, while a further 20GW comprises projects in advanced stages of development.

    The company has said it plans to deploy a further $30bn-$35bn in equity and project finance by 2030 to achieve its capacity target, adding an average of 10GW of new capacity each year.

    The next phase of growth will be funded through a combination of equity, green bonds and long-term project finance. 

    Last month, Masdar reached financial close on its $6.1bn round-the-clock renewable energy project in Abu Dhabi, securing a $5.1bn financing package from a consortium of 13 local and international banks.

    The project combines 5.2GW of solar generation with 19GWh of battery energy storage and is expected to begin operations in 2027.

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  • Jordan awards EPC contract for Maan wind farm

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    Jordan’s state-owned Samra Electric Power Company (Sepco) has awarded an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract to Al-Mawakea General Contracting Technology Company for a 25MW wind power project in the Batn Al-Ghul area of Maan Governorate.

    The project is being developed by Jordan’s Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources (MEMR) under a cooperation agreement signed with Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) in February. The UAE, represented by Masdar, is fully financing the project.

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