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Mena power capacity to exceed 630GW in 2030

26 February 2024

The overall power generation capacity across 17 Middle East and North Africa (Mena) countries is expected to rise from 442.5GW in 2020 to 633.5GW by 2030, according to a forecast by GlobalData.

This equates to a compounded average growth rate of over 4% annually during the forecast period.

The total estimated power capacity across the 17 countries as of 2023 is 484.3GW.

The share of thermal power generation capacity is expected to decline by 12 percentage points, from 92% in 2020 to 80% in 2030.

Nuclear power capacity will grow from zero in 2020 to an estimated 7.1GW by 2030, mainly thanks to Abu Dhabi's Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant and the first reactors of Egypt's El Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant.

Accordingly, renewable energy, inclusive of hydropower, is expected to expand to account for the remaining share of overall capacity during the 10-year period.

Based on GlobalData's parameters and methodologies, Morocco, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to have the highest renewable energy installed capacities, ranging from 20% to 61% of their overall power generation installed capacity by 2030.

Renewable energy penetration levels in the following countries will be 10% or lower:

  • Lebanon
  • Algeria
  • Kuwait
  • Bahrain
  • Libya

Seven countries are expected to fall within the mid-range band, with renewable energy accounting for 12%-19% of their overall capacity. These are Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Qatar, Iran, Oman and Tunisia.

At least two jurisdictions – Dubai in the UAE and Oman – have conveyed that they do not plan to procure additional thermal power plants, in line with their energy diversification targets.

Abu Dhabi has said it expects to gradually reduce gas generation and altogether eliminate its use by 2050, the UAE's deadline to reach next-zero carbon emissions.

Saudi Arabia and other jurisdictions with significant thermal capacity, including liquid oil-fired power plants, are still expanding gas-generation capacity to enable baseload and grid stability during the energy transition, when a substantial capacity of intermittent solar and wind energy will be added to their energy mix.

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Jennifer Aguinaldo

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