meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Mena economies living dangerously

27 December 2023

 

Gaza conflict puts the region on edge once again

Middle East and North Africa (Mena) economies enter 2024 in a state of flux. While most are well placed to continue their post-pandemic growth trajectory, albeit in the context of weaker oil sector growth, some states – Egypt and Tunisia notable among them — are under pressure to undertake painful reforms in order to elicit IMF funding packages.

Overall, hopes are high that growth in the Mena region will at least outpace the sluggish performance of the past year.  Policymakers across the region will also be looking to double down on the private sector dynamism that saw non-oil growth outpace hydrocarbons performances in 2023.

The overall rear-view mirror is not especially encouraging. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook has Mena real GDP slowing to 2 per cent in 2023 from 5.6 per cent in 2022, a decline attributed to the impact of lower oil production among exporters and tighter monetary policy conditions in the region’s emerging market and middle-income economies. Geopolitical tensions – not least the Gaza conflict – and natural disasters in Morocco and Libya have also weighed on regional economies. 

GDP growth

The World Bank estimates that in per capita terms, GDP growth across the region decreased from 4.3 per cent in 2022 to just 0.4 per cent in 2023. By the end of 2023, it says, only eight of 15 Mena economies will have returned to pre-pandemic real GDP per capita levels.

Much hinges on developments in the oil market. The Opec+ decision on 30 November to agree voluntary output reductions that will extend Saudi and Russian cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day (b/d), is designed to shore up prices, but it will come at a cost. 

Saudi Arabia’s GDP data for the third quarter of 2023 revealed the full impact of output restraint, as the economy contracted at its fastest rate since the pandemic. Saudi GDP notably declined by 3.9 per cent in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter – after the kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1 million b/d oil output cut.

As a whole, GCC economic growth has been tepid, despite a resurgence in services hotspots such as the UAE, where retail and hospitality sectors have boomed. The World Bank’s Gulf Economic Update report, published in late November, sees GCC growth at just 1 per cent in 2023, although this is expected to rise to 3.6 per cent in 2024. 

Oil sector activity is expected to contract by 3.9 per cent in 2024 as a result of the recurrent Opec+ production cuts and global economic slowdown, according to Capital Economics. However, weaker oil sector activity will be compensated for by non-oil sectors, where growth is projected at a relatively healthy 3.9 per cent in 2024, supported by sustained private consumption, strategic fixed investments and accommodative fiscal policy.

“There has not been much GDP growth this year, but the non-oil economy has been surprisingly robust and resilient, despite the fact that the liquidity has not been as much of a driver as it was a year earlier,” says Jarmo Kotilaine, a regional economic expert. 

“Of course, the cost of capital has gone up and there have been some liquidity constraints. But we do have a lot of momentum in the non-oil economy.” 

In Saudi Arabia, beyond its robust real estate story, the ventures implemented under the national investment strategy are unfolding and semi-sovereign funds are playing a key role in ensuring continuity. “You are seeing more of these green energy projects across the region. It really has been a surprisingly positive story for the non-oil economy,” says Kotilaine.

Government spending

Fiscal policy will remain loose, at least among Mena oil exporters, whose revenues endow them with greater fiscal fire-power. 

Saudi Arabia’s 2024 pre-budget statement bakes in further budget deficits, with government spending for 2023 and 2024 expected to be 34 per cent and 32 per cent higher, respectively, than the finance ministry had projected in the 2022 budget.  This is not just higher spending on health, education and social welfare, but also marked increases in capital expenditure, including on the kingdom’s gigapojects. 

That luxury is not open to the likes of Bahrain and Oman, the former recording the highest public debt-to-GDP ratio in the region at 125 per cent in 2023. Those two Gulf states will need to maintain a closer watch on their fiscal positions in 2024. 

There are broader changes to fiscal policy taking place in the Gulf states, notes Kotilaine, some of which will be registered in 2024. “There are areas that the government will play a role in, but in a much more selective and focused manner. Much less of the overall story now hinges on government spending than it used to in the GCC,” he says.

For 2024, a consensus is emerging that the Mena region should see GDP growth of above 3 per cent. That is better than 2023, but well below the previous year and, warns the IMF, insufficient to be strong or inclusive enough to create jobs for the 100 million Arab youth who will reach working age in the next 10 years. 

The Mena region’s non-oil buoyancy at least offers hope that diversification will deliver more benefits to regional populations, reflecting the impact of structural reforms designed to improve the investment environment and make labour markets more flexible. 

“The labour market in the region continues to strengthen, with business confidence and hiring activity reverting to pre-pandemic levels,” says Safaa el-Tayeb el-Kogali, World Bank country director for the GCC. “In Saudi Arabia, private sector workforce has grown steadily, reaching 2.6 million in early 2023. This expansion coincides with overall increases in labour force participation, employment-to-population ratio, and a decrease in unemployment.”

El-Kogali adds that non-oil exports across the GCC region continue to lag, however. “While the substantial improvement in the external balances of the GCC over the past years is attributed to the exports of the oil sector, few countries in the region have also shown progress in non-oil merchandise exports. This requires close attention by policymakers to further diversify their exports portfolio by further promoting private sector development and competitiveness.”

Regional trade

There is a broader reshaping of the Gulf’s international trading and political relations, shifting away from close ties with the West to a broader alignment that includes Asian economies. The entry of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran to the Brics group of emerging market nations, taking effect in 2024, is a sign of this process.

The decision of the Saudi central bank and People’s Bank of China in November 2023 to agree a local-currency swap deal worth about $7bn underscores the kingdom’s reduced reliance on the Western financial system and a greater openness to facilitating more Chinese investment.

“You want to be as multi-directional, as multi-modal as you can,” says Kotilaine. “For the Gulf states, it is almost like they are trying to transcend the old bloc politics. It is not about who your best friend is. They want to think of this in terms of a non-zero sum game, and that worked very well for them during the global financial crisis when they had to pivot from the West to the East.”

Near-term challenges

While long-term strategic repositioning will influence Mena economic policy-making in 2024, there will be near-term issues to grapple with. High up that list is the Gaza conflict, the wider regional impacts of which are still unknown. 

Most current baseline forecasts do not envisage a wider regional escalation, limiting the conflict’s impacts on regional economies. The initial spike in oil prices following the 7 October attacks dissipated fairly quickly. 

Egypt is the most exposed to a worsening of the situation in Gaza, sharing a land border with the territory. However, the Gaza crisis is not the only challenge facing the North African country 

Elections set for 10 December will grant President Abdelfattah al-Sisi another term in office, but his in-tray is bulging under a host of economic pressures. 

Inflation peaked at 41 per cent in June 2023. A currency devaluation is being urged, as a more flexible pound would offer a better chance of attracting much-needed capital inflows. 

The corollary is that it would have to be accompanied by an interest rate hike. Capital Economics sees a 200 basis point increase to 21.25 per cent as the most likely outcome, ratcheting up the pain on Egyptian businesses and households. 

A deal with the IMF would do much to settle Egyptian nerves, with a rescue plan worth $5bn understood to be in the offing. But Egypt has to do more to convince the fund that it is prepared to undertake meaningful fiscal reforms.  Privatisations of state assets, including Egypt Aluminum, will help.  

Other Mena economies will enjoy more leeway to chart their own economic path in 2024. Iraq has achieved greater political stability over the past year, and may stand a better chance of reforming its economy, although weaker oil prices will limit the heavily hydrocarbons-dominated economy’s room for manoeuvre. 

Jordan is another Mena economy that has managed to tame inflation. Like Egypt, however, the country is also heavily exposed to what happens in Gaza. 

Few could have predicted the bloody events that followed the 7 October attacks. Mena region economic strategists will be hoping that 2024 will not bring further surprises.

Can the Gulf build back better?

The GCC has done much to put itself on the global map through effective reputation building. But, notes regional economic expert Jarmo Kotilaine, the focus of policy will now have to change from building more to building better, making the existing infrastructure and systems operate with greater efficiency. 

Above all, the region will need dynamic and adaptable companies and an economically engaged workforce. 

“The reality is the GCC has a lot of capital committed to the old economy. There is the question of how much of that should be upgraded, or made to work better, because fundamentally, one of the region’s big challenges is that local economies have very low levels of productivity.”   

It is by upgrading what the GCC has, by incorporating technology and energy efficiency, that the region can make productivity growth a driver, he tells MEED.

“One area where GCC economies have started to make progress is in services: logistics, tourism, financial services. This is bringing money to the region,” he says. 

“We are also starting to see new potential export streams with things like green energy, and obviously green hydrogen.  But the Gulf states have to manufacture more, and they have to manufacture better.”

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11360413/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Slow year for Maghreb power and water awards

    7 July 2025

     

    The Maghreb region has experienced a slow 2025 in terms of power and water project contract awards. Hopes for the year now rely on a strong second half if the sector is to match the performance of previous years.

    As of early July, the total value of power project contract awards had reached $663m, according to regional projects tracker MEED Projects. This means that by the end of the year, the market is expected to fall significantly short of the peaks of $3.8bn in 2023 and $4.5bn in 2024. 

    Libya’s recovery was a major driver in 2023, accounting for $2.9bn of the total for that year, while Algeria contributed $430m and Morocco $210m. There are no recorded power contract awards for Algeria or Libya in 2025. Morocco and Tunisia contributed $353m and $310m, respectively. 

    The total value of contract awards for water projects has also declined significantly. For the first six months of 2025, the total reached $189m, which is tracking behind the $815m of water project contract awards recorded in 2024.

    Both 2025 and 2024 are far behind the peak of $3.6bn registered in 2022, when Algeria alone accounted for $1.8bn of contract awards, followed closely by Morocco with $1.6bn. 

    For upcoming power and water contract awards, there are over $6bn of contracts in the bid or prequalification stage that are expected to be awarded within the next year. 

    In the water sector, Libya leads with $210m of soon-to-be-awarded contracts, followed closely by Tunisia at $260m. In the power sector, Morocco stands out with an impressive projected contract value of $5.3bn, while in Tunisia, there are $300m of upcoming power contract awards.

    Xlinks disappointment

    There have been some notable project developments in the power and water sectors across the Maghreb region over the past year. Most recently, at the end of June, the UK government withdrew its support for the Xlinks Morocco-UK power project.

    The UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero decided not to consider a contract for difference for this large-scale renewable energy initiative, which aimed to deliver 3,600MW of renewable energy from Morocco to the UK via a 4,000-kilometre high-voltage direct current cable system.

    Sir Dave Lewis, chair of Xlinks, expressed disappointment, emphasising the project’s potential to significantly lower wholesale electricity prices in the UK.

    Power progress

    Other projects in Morocco are proceeding. The Ministry of Energy Transition & Sustainable Development has issued an invitation for expressions of interest for a major liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure project at Nador West Med Port. This project includes an LNG import terminal, pipelines and a gas power station with a capacity of approximately 1,200MW. The project aims to enhance Morocco’s energy security and diversify its energy sources.

    Additionally, Morocco’s National Office for Electricity and Drinking Water has invited firms to submit expressions of interest for contracts to build three gas-fired power stations with a total capacity of between 300MW and 450MW. These plants are expected to be commissioned by the summer of 2026, further contributing to the country’s energy infrastructure.

    Water advancements

    In the water sector, Algeria has inaugurated the El-Tarf desalination plant, which has a production capacity of 300,000 cubic metres a day. This facility is part of Algeria’s broader desalination programme, which aims to address water scarcity issues exacerbated by climate change. The Algerian government has allocated $3bn for the second phase of its desalination capacity expansion, with plans to build six new plants by 2030.

    Morocco is also advancing its water infrastructure, with Veolia undertaking the detailed design for a new seawater reverse osmosis plant near Rabat. This facility is expected to treat up to 822,000 cubic metres of seawater daily and will cater to regions particularly affected by drought.

    Policy focus

    For policy, governments have been manoeuvring as they respond to the global challenge of climate change. 

    Morocco is progressing with its green hydrogen initiatives, which are closely linked to its water projects. The country has set ambitious targets to produce 52% of its energy from clean sources by 2030, with plans to develop large-scale green hydrogen projects. These projects will require significant water resources for electrolysis, further intertwining the power and water sectors.

    Morocco also aims to increase its renewable capacity to 10,000MW by 2030, with a focus on solar, wind and hydroelectric power. Despite the recent Xlinks setback, the country is also exploring opportunities for exporting electricity to Europe, which could significantly enhance its energy market.

    Algeria is pursuing other avenues in its quest to diversify its energy sources. In April, Algerian Minister of Energy, Mines and Renewable Energies, Mohamed Arkab, met with Wang Yongge, president of the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), in Algiers. The two reviewed the ongoing cooperation between Algeria’s Commissariat for Atomic Energy (Comena) and CNNC, focusing on the peaceful use of nuclear energy, its medical applications and prospects for future development.

    The Algerian government also plans to invest heavily in desalination projects to ensure a sustainable water supply, with desalinated water expected to account for 60% of drinking water by 2030.

    Main image: Noor electric power station close to Ouarzazate, Morocco
     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14212527/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Iraq to retender Baghdad Metro PPP project contract

    7 July 2025

    Iraq intends to retender the contract to develop and operate the Baghdad Metro project, following the award of the estimated $2.5bn contract last year.

    According to local media reports, Nasser Al-Assadi, adviser to Prime Minister Mohammed Sudani, stated that the previous developers had overestimated the project budget; therefore, the government will relaunch the entire process to implement the project.

    Iraq’s National Investment Commission (NIC) awarded an estimated $2.5bn contract to develop and operate the Baghdad Metro project in July last year.

    The contract was awarded to a consortium comprising France’s Systra, Societe Nationale des Chemins de fer Francais (SNCF) and Alstom; Spain’s Talgo and Sener; and Turkish contractors.

    Germany’s Deutsche Bank was the project finance adviser.

    The project will be developed as a public-private partnership (PPP) scheme using a design, build, operate, maintain, finance and transfer model.

    Malaysian consulting firms ConsultantHSS and HSS Engineering were working on the project.

    Project scope

    The Baghdad Metro project is one of the largest infrastructure schemes in Iraq.

    It will comprise seven main lines totalling 150 kilometres (km), 64 metro stations, four workshops and depots for trains, two metro train control and management centres and power generation stations.

    The Green Line will extend 19km and run from the Al-Alawi terminal to the Doura terminal. The Red Line will be 27.7km long and will run from the Al-Alwai terminal to Maisaloun Square.

    The Blue Line will run 22km from the Al-Shaab terminal to Al-Zafaraniya. The Purple Line will be 14.5km long and will connect Al-Tayaran Square to Al-Shaab.

    The Yellow Line will extend 30km from Al-Baladiyat to Adan Square. The White Line will be 23km long and will run from Al-Kadhimiya to Al-Bayaa, while the Airport Line will run 12km from Baghdad airport to Al-Qadisiya.

    Each line will comprise a total of eight stations.

    The trains will include a gold-class cabin, a special cabin for women and children, and tourist cabins.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14211465/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Ibri 3 construction deal implies Masdar win

    7 July 2025

     

    A Chinese consortium of China Energy Engineering International Corporation (CEEC), China Power Construction Group East China Survey & Design Institute Company (East China Institute) and China Energy Construction Group Hunan Thermal Power Construction Company (Hunan Thermal Power) says it has won an early works contract to build the Ibri 3 solar independent power plant (IPP) in Oman.

    The engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract was awarded by Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar), implying it has won the IPP’s development concession.

    Masdar, alongside Korea Midland Power (Komipo) and the local Al-Khadra Partners, was one of four groups to bid for the contract to finance, construct and operate the IPP in February.

    Under the terms of the EPC contract, the CEEC consortium will build the 500MW solar photovoltaic (PV) power plant together with an associated 150MWh battery energy storage unit. 

    It will also install a 400kV substation and two 400kV overhead transmission lines as part of the deal, it says.

    The client, Nama Power & Water Procurement Company (Nama PWP), received prequalification applications for the Ibri 3 solar PV IPP contract in March last year.

    Previous projects

    The sultanate’s first 500MW solar IPP scheme, Ibri 2, came onstream in September 2021 and was officially inaugurated in January 2022.

    The Manah 1 and Manah 2 solar IPP projects, each with a capacity of 500MW, were recently inaugurated. 

    A team comprising France’s EDF and South Korea’s Korea Western Power Company (Kowepo) won the contract to develop the Manah 1 solar PV IPP project.

    A team of Singapore’s Sembcorp Industries and China-headquartered Jinko Power Technology was awarded the second 500MW solar PV IPP contract.

    In September last year, Nama PWP tendered the contracts to develop two wind IPPs.

    The Jalan Bani Bu Ali wind IPP will cater to Oman’s Main Interconnection System (MIS), while the Dhofar 2 wind IPP will cater to the smaller Dhofar Power System (DPS).

    Three other wind IPPs are expected to be tendered separately. They are:  

    • Duqm wind IPP: Located in Ras Madrakah in Duqm, the project will have a capacity of 234MW-270MW, with commercial operations expected in Q4 2027
    • Mahoot wind 1 IPP: Located in Mahoot in the Al-Wusta Governate, the wind farm will have a capacity of 342MW-400MW, with a commercial operation target of Q4 2027 
    • Sadah wind IPP: Located in Sadah in the Dhofar Governorate, it will have a capacity of 81MW-99MW and is due for commercial operation in Q4 2027

    READ THE JULY 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    UAE and Turkiye expand business links; Renewed hope lies on the horizon for trouble-beset Levant region; Gulf real estate momentum continues even as concerns emerge

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > PROJECTS MARKET: GCC projects market collapses
    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index continues climb
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14211645/main.gif
    Edward James
  • Kuwait tenders renewables substation job

    7 July 2025

    Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity, Water & Renewable Energy (MEWRE) has tendered a contract for the construction of the Shagaya Z 400/132/11kV substation to serve the Shagaya solar power complex.

    Interested prequalified firms have until 5 August to bid for the contract, which has an estimated value of $120m. A date of 20 July has been set for the pre-bid meeting.

    MEWRE, through the Kuwait Authority for Partnership Projects (Kapp), issued a request for proposals in June for the contract to develop the state’s first utility-scale solar photovoltaic plant at Shagaya.

    Prequalified developers have until 14 September to submit technical and commercial bids for the Al-Dibdibah power and Al-Shagaya renewable energy phase three, zone one independent power project (IPP), which will have a total power generating capacity of 1,100MW.

    Kapp issued the request for qualifications for the developer concession in January 2024, with six prequalified companies and consortiums announced the following August. 

    Unlike the solar project, the Shagaya Z substation is being procured on an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) basis directly by the ministry. Associated transmission and distribution work often form part of the developers’ scope of work, but will not be the case in this instance.

    READ THE JULY 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    UAE and Turkiye expand business links; Renewed hope lies on the horizon for trouble-beset Levant region; Gulf real estate momentum continues even as concerns emerge

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > PROJECTS MARKET: GCC projects market collapses
    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index continues climb
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14211467/main.gif
    Edward James
  • Riyadh tenders first Expo 2030 construction work

    7 July 2025

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s Expo 2030 Riyadh Company (ERC), tasked with delivering the Riyadh Expo 2030 venue, has tendered a contract to build the site offices required for the initial construction works at the project site in Riyadh.

    MEED understands that the contract was tendered on 29 May, with bids due in the first week of July.

    The announcement follows the establishment of ERC as a wholly owned subsidiary of the Public Investment Fund (PIF) that will build and operate facilities for Expo 2030 in June.

    In a statement, the PIF said: “During its construction phases, Expo 2030 Riyadh and its legacy are projected to contribute around $64bn to Saudi GDP and generate approximately 171,000 direct and indirect jobs. Once operational, it is expected to contribute approximately $5.6bn to GDP.”

    The masterplan for Expo 2030 Riyadh encompasses an area of 6 square kilometres, making it one of the largest sites designated for a World Expo. Situated to the north of the city, the expo site will be located near the future King Salman International airport, providing direct access to various landmarks within the Saudi capital.

    Countries participating in Expo 2030 Riyadh will have the option to construct permanent pavilions, contributing to the event’s legacy. This initiative is expected to create opportunities for business and investment growth in the region.

    The expo is projected to attract over 40 million visitors. After the event concludes, ERC plans to convert the expo’s secured area into a global village, to serve as a multicultural centre for retail and dining. This development will also feature an international residential community with a range of amenities, with a focus on sustainable tourism practices.

    Expo 2030 Riyadh will run from 1 October 2030 to 31 March 2031.

    Last month, MEED reported that the PIF had named Talal Al-Marri as the CEO of ERC. 

    Al-Marri has previously held several senior executive roles at Saudi Aramco, including president and CEO of Aramco Europe, senior vice-president of community services and senior vice-president of industrial services.

    In May, MEED exclusively reported that Riyadh had begun talks with stakeholders in preparation for the commencement of construction work for the event.

    The discussions were understood to have been held with the Royal Commission for Riyadh City and the PIF.

    German architectural firm Lava Architects and US-based engineering firm Jacobs are assisting with the project masterplan and the design of infrastructure for the site.

    READ THE JULY 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    UAE and Turkiye expand business links; Renewed hope lies on the horizon for trouble-beset Levant region; Gulf real estate momentum continues even as concerns emerge

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > PROJECTS MARKET: GCC projects market collapses
    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index continues climb
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14211012/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal